Evaluation of Polyphemus for 2004

Janusz Zyśk, Yelva Roustan,Janusz Zyśk, Yelva Roustan,Artur Wyrwa, Denis Quelo.Artur Wyrwa, Denis Quelo.

Atelier PolyphemusChamps-sur-Marne, 28th October 2008

Outline

Air quality in Poland

Impact studies

Modeling in local scale

Validation of Polyphemus for 2004

Plans for future

IntroductionIntroduction

Adaptation of EU methodologies for Integrated Impact Assessment of energy scenarios (an Environmental and Human Health)

Emission database

Atmospheric Transport:SO2, NOx, PM, HM

Critical loads, Dose-response function Benefits

Negative impacts

Emission reduction

Cost savings

Avoided costs

From emissions estimation ... to health and environmental impact

Concentration and deposition POLYPHEMUS

Population density distribution Environment impact ECOSENS, RiskPoll

Emission level of different pollutants RAINS

Sectors emissions modelling 2005 2010 2020

The annual EMEP emission of SO2 from SNAP 1 [Mg/cell] Average yearly concetration of SO2 from SNAP 1 [µg/m3] Annual costs of loss of life due to SO2 emission, from SNAP1 [x1000 EUR/y].

02060

110165235390675

1000

Estimation of external cost

horizontal resolution of the grid is 0,01o x 0,01o with number of the cells 34 x 28first cell localized in the left lower corner 18.455W, 52.865E

Points emitors Surface emission Linear Emission

Change in concentration of SO2 in the air [µg/m3], after eliminating domestic emission in The Old Town (60 Mg/y).

Change in concentration of PM10 in the air [µg/m3], after eliminating domestic emission in The Old Town (140 Mg/y).

0.030.040.0550.0750.10.115

0.010.030.550.090.160.28

Population of Toruń in different regions of the city

People/cell0320880240040006900

Avoided external costs about 7 %

Estimation of external cost

Polyphemus in local scale

Measurements stationsAll stationsAll stationsKrasińskiego Krowodrza Nowa Huta Skawina

SO2 28.5 18.4 16.0 29.6 24.724.7 Meas_mean

31.0 19.3 26.8 22.4 26.726.7 Sim_mean

39.1 25.9 31.8 33.7 34.934.9 RMSE

54.5 46.7 51.7 31.6 45.945.9 Correlation [%]

NO2 42.5 36.7 26.9 31.1 34.334.3 Meas_mean

41.3 39.1 40.9 30.0 37.837.8 Sim_mean

17.7 15.8 20.6 19.9 18.518.5 RMSE

57.1 60.1 33.5 36.0 46.746.7 Correlation [%]

PM10 79.0 71.2 73.8 74.374.3 Meas_mean

34.9 34.2 31.8 33.633.6 Sim_mean

89.4 84.1 85.6 86.386.3 RMSE

44.0 21.8 22.6 29.529.5 Correlation [%]

longitude: first 19,700, step 0,020, 30 cells,latitude: first 49,900, step 0,010, 25 cells.

Simulation for 2005 base on ECMWF The emission inventory consisted of:area emissions 200 by 200km – Krakow in the center with resolution 5 by 5 km,area emissions from Krakow and surroundings (30 by 30 km) with resolution 1 by 1 km,emissions from point sources – 430 main points emitters

NO2 concentration (Krowodrza station) SO2 concentration (Krowodrza station).

Polyphemus in local scale

Validation of Polyphemus for 2004 over Europe

The two simulations over Europe for 2004 were performed.

I. longitude from -10.25 W to 30.25 E and latitude from 34,75 N to 57,25 N with resolutions 0,5 x 0,5 (lon/lat)

II. longitude from -4,6 W to 27,4 E and latitude from 39,75 N to 56,75 N with resolutions 0,8 x 0,5 (lon/lat) .

Simulations was done for 5 levels with boundaries 0, 50, 600, 1200, 2000, 3000 m.

For meteorological, emission, boundary condition for gases and aerosols inputs the EMCWF, EMEP, Mozart 2 and GOCART data were used respectively

Average concetration of SO2 [µg/m3] in 2004

Results for gaseous species

Average concetration of NO2 [µg/m3] in 2004

Average concetration of PM 2.5 [µg/m3] in 2004

Concetration of aerosols

Average concetration of PM 10 [µg/m3] in 2004

Average concetration of sea salt [µg/m3] in 2004

Validation of Polyphemus for 2004

The results from Polyphemus were compared with data from EMEP and AirBase.

The red results are coming from:K.N. Sartelet, E. Debry, K. Fahey, Y. Roustan, M. Tombette, B. Sportisse.Simulation of aerosols and gas-phase species over Europe with the Polyphemus system: Part I – Model to data comparison for 2001 Atmosheric Enviroment 41 (2007)

The location of EMEP stations The location of AirBase stations

Validation of Polyphemus for 2004

Sym.nr.

Database Stations Obs.mean

Mod.mean

RMSE Corr.

SO2 I Emep 30 1,7 5,3 4,9 47,2%

AirBase 991 6,3 7,0 7,3 44,0%

II Emep 24 1,9 6,2 6,0 43,7%

AirBase 904 6,3 7,5 7,6 42,9%

Emep 43 2,0 5,2 4,8 47,5%

AirBase 656 6,4 6,9 6,5 44,5%

Sulfate I Emep 30 2,2 1,5 1,9 24,6%

AirBase 8 3,6 2,2 3,2 3,7%

II Emep 24 2,3 1,9 2,0 22,9%

AirBase 8 3,6 1,6 3,2 11,9%

Emep 57 2,5 2,1 1,7 55,8%

AirBase 11 1,9 2,4 1,6 51,3%

Validation of Polyphemus for 2004

Sym.nr.

Database Stations Obs.mean

Mod.mean

RMSE Corr.

NO2 I Emep 25 6,5 7,7 4,7 50,6%

AirBase 1173 23,4 13,6 18,8 41,1%

II Emep 20 7,3 8,3 4,8 50,0%

AirBase 1082 23,6 13,4 19,0 41,4%

Emep 30 10,0 12,3 10,1 33,6%

AirBase 990 23,9 15,3 18,3 39,5%

Nitrate I Emep 11 2,0 3,4 2,8 33,2%

AirBase 7 1,6 3,4 2,6 35,2%

II Emep 10 2,1 3,7 2,9 33,6%

AirBase 7 1,6 3,8 3,1 30,3%

Emep 14 2,6 4,1 3,1 41,4%

AirBase 8 3,5 4,4 2,7 71,7%

Validation of Polyphemus for 2004

Sym.nr.

Database Stations Obs.mean

Mod.mean

RMSE Corr.

NH3 I Emep 3 1,9 2,7 1,7 45,0%

AirBase 18 16,6 5,8 19,0 17,2%

II Emep 3 1,9 2,9 1,7 44,6%

AirBase 18 16,5 5,4 18,6 17,8%

Emep 3 7,4 6,3 5,4 29,5%

AirBase 9 12,9 7,4 12,9 28,4%

Amm I Emep 8 1,4 2,4 1,7 37,4%

II Emep 7 1,4 2,7 1,9 38,1%

Emep 9 1,8 2,0 1,3 51,9%

Validation of Polyphemus for 2004

Sym.nr.

Database Stations Obs.mean

Mod.mean

RMSE Corr.

O3 I Emep 42 65,7 63,1 25,0 55,2%

AirBase 1213 51,8 59,1 27,5 63,3%

II Emep 36 64,3 63,3 25,9 53,3%

AirBase 1109 51,7 59,8 27,6 64,3%

Emep 96 63,2 57,0 24,3 63,9%

AirBase 993 49,9 53,2 26,0 67,5%

PM10 I Emep 18 18,8 20,9 17,2 36,4%

AirBase 429 26,1 19,7 24,0 23,9%

II Emep 12 19,7 22,5 18,5 25,7%

AirBase 374 25,4 20,8 23,4 21,0%

Emep 26 16,9 15,6 12,6 54,5%

AirBase 529 24,9 15,4 16,6 44,0%

Plans for future

Working on developing Polyphemus for simulations of heavy metals – mercury module.

Developing plume in grid model - for the heavy metals particles- for mercury (specific chemistry)

Investigating of behavior of heavy metals in PM (size distribution, deposition)

Thank you