European Environment Agency EEA Report No 4/2005 and some other projections Scenarios Group...

European Environment Agency

EEA Report No 4/2005 and some other projections

Scenarios Group

‘Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the environment’

European environment outlookEuropean environment outlook


State of the environment reporting should State of the environment reporting should inform decision makers also about the inform decision makers also about the

futurefuture

What can outlooks and scenarios offer?• Identify emerging issues• Projections can replace monitoring burden

after a certain period• Inform decision makers about “what if..”

options in the future • Identify uncertainties, driving forces and

surprises


Contribution of Contribution of European environment outlook 2005European environment outlook 2005

• baseline projections (2020-2030), alternative scenarios and variants (up to 2100) within EU 25.

• Interactions between and implications of sectoral developments and environmental issues. Link to past and ongoing European Commission exercises when appropriate.

• Distance to target analyses

• Key messages / early warnings for policy-makers.


The Analytical FrameworkThe Analytical Framework• Key socio-economic developments

• Demography• Macro-economy• Technological and sectoral developments• Energy and transport• Agriculture• Waste and material flows• Consumption patterns

• Outlooks developed for various environmental themes• GHG emissions and climate change• Air quality• Water stress• Water quality


DemographyDemographyMacro-economyMacro-economy


Demography- Demography-

Changes in Europe’s demographic patterns

• aging societies, • rural depopulation • growing numbers of

households

-10 0 10 20 30 40

Canada

SEE

EECCA

US

NWE

India

China

Projected percentage change in total population from 2005 to 2030 (UN)


Macro-economyMacro-economy

The macro-economic assumptions for Europe are moderately optimistic, and entail challenging trade-offs in light of achieving sustainable economic development.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Gro

ss D

om

esti

c P

rod

uct

- G

DP

(In

dex

, Sit

uat

ion

in 1

990

= 10

0)

EEA-31 EU-15 New-10

0 50 100 150 200 250

Canada

CEU

China

India

US

WEU

EECCA

c

Projected percentage change in GDP per capita from 2005 to 2030 (OECD)


• How will aging and migrations influence economy and environment?

• How will growing economic prosperity and changing demography influence society consumption habits especially in the eastern part of Europe?

• How will EECCA and SEE countries deal with expected economic growth in relation to the needs for environment protection? Will growth be knowledge based or only profit driven?


Technology and sectors development


Key messagesKey messages – Technological and sectoral developments – Technological and sectoral developments

• Technological progress is moderate but essential in key areas such as energy, agriculture and water, but no technological breakthroughs are assumed.

• The service sector is expected to retain its predominance in the European economy and be instrumental in sustaining economic growth.

0

2,500

5,000

7,500

10,000

12,500

15,000

17,500

20,000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Gro

ss V

alu

e A

dd

ed

(Bill

ion

s o

f E

uro

)

Industry Construction Services Agriculture Energy sector


Key messagesKey messages – Energy and transport – Energy and transport

• Despite continuing increases, total energy consumption is expected to decouple significantly in relative terms from GDP.

• Without technological breakthroughs, the transport sector is expected to continue to grow significantly in terms of energy requirements, and to crystallise environmental concerns due to ever-increasing CO2 emissions to the air.

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

To

tal e

ner

gy

con

sum

pti

on

(P

eta

Jou

le)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

To

tal e

ner

gy

con

sum

pti

on

(I

nd

ex, S

itu

atio

n in

199

0 =

100)

Total energy consumption (EU-15) Total energy consumption (New-10)

Total energy consumption (EU-15) - Index Total energy consumption (New-10) - Index


World Business Council for Sustainable Development

Outlook freight transport by mode, 2000 - 2050

Outlook passenger transport by mode, 2000 - 2050

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

rail road

OECD-Europe

OECD-North America

SEE+Some EU 10

EECCA +Baltic States

India

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

200020

5020

0020

5020

0020

5020

0020

5020

0020

5020

0020

50

rail road air

OECD - North America

OECD - EuropeSEE +

some of EU 10

EECCA + Baltic States

IndiaChina


Key messagesKey messages – Agriculture – Agriculture

• Yields increase is expected to be the main source of production growth in Europe over the next 20 years.

• Mineral fertiliser use is expected to increase considerably in the new Member States, but remains lower than in the EU-15 in absolute terms; this may lead to increases in associated environmental pressures.

-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Methane (CH4; animals)

Nitrous oxide (N2O; fertilizer)

Potassium (K)

Phosphate (P)

Ammonia losses (NH3)

Nitrogen (N)

Expected change between 2001 and 2020 (in %)New-8 EU-15


• To what extent will sectors integrate environmental measures?

Energy • Will EU be able to achieve a more sustainable demand both in terms of

security and environment?• Will we mange to improve energy efficiency ?

Transport• Will we develop more sustainable patterns of transportation use?• Can we expect any technology breakthrough in this area?

Agriculture• Will EECCA and SEE countries put emphasis only on intensive agriculture and food

processing industry or will they promote rural development including traditional organic farming as priority?

Technological developments• How will globalisation impact on spreading of technology innovation?• How fast will new and clean technologies penetrate the market that is still

dominated by old industries? And become accessible?


WasteWaste


Key messagesKey messages - Waste - Waste

• In the EU-15, most waste streams are not expected to decouple significantly from GDP. In the New-10, relative decoupling of waste from GDP is expected.

• As waste generation is expected to continue to grow across Europe, the policy target of absolute decoupling is not met.

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

Packaging

Waste oils & used tyres

Glass

Paper & cardboard

Construction & demolition

Industrial

Municipal

GDP

EU-CC2 New-10 EU-15 %

Growths in waste quantities and GDP (2020/2000)


EnvironmentEnvironment


Key messagesKey messages – GHG emissions & climate change – GHG emissions & climate change

• The short-term European greenhouse gas emission targets are expected to be met, if all additional policies and measures planned are implemented.

• The long-term European greenhouse gas emission targets, set to prevent harmful climate change, are expected to be exceeded.

0

1

2

3

4

5

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Tem

pera

ture

ch

an

ge

(°C

, co

mp

are

d w

ith

pre

-in

du

str

ial

level)

Global average temperature change in 'baseline scenario'Global average temperature change in 'low emission scenario'

EU long-term sustainabletarget (6th EAP)

baseline

alternative


Key messagesKey messages – Water stress – Water stress

• Water use is expected to decrease markedly in most of Europe; however many Mediterranean river basins will continue to face water stress.

Water stress in large European river basins, 2000 and 2030

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Wat

er e

xplo

itat

ion

ind

ex

2000 2030


Key messagesKey messages – Water quality – Water quality

• The UWWT directive is expected to lead to a significant reduction in the overall discharge of nutrients from point sources.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Currentsituation

UWWTDirective

Currentsituation

UWWTDirective

Currentsituation

UWWTDirective

Currentsituation

UWWTDirective

Po

pu

lati

on

co

nn

ecte

d t

o u

rban

was

tew

ater

tre

atm

ent

(% o

f to

tal p

op

ula

tio

n)

Primary Secondary Tertiary Without treatment

Group 1 (EU-15) Group 2 (EU-15) Group 3 (EU-15) New-5%

Group 1 (EU-15) countries: The Netherlands, Germany, Austria, Denmark, Sweden, and Finland; Group 2 (EU-15) countries: Belgium and Luxembourg; Group 3 (EU-15) countries: France, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Portugal, and Spain; New-5 countries: Estonia, Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary and Slovenia


Key messagesKey messages

• The EU seems to be on track to meet the targets set for a number of issues (e.g. nutrient emissions from point sources). However, it continues to face significant challenges with respect to greenhouse gas emissions, alternative sources of energy and waste .

• The current shift to more integrated approaches towards environmental policies provides further opportunities to improve the future state of Europe's environment.

• Most environmental concerns have common drivers of change and are linked through a range of interactions.


Do countries have a good knowledge and Do countries have a good knowledge and overview about existing state of the overview about existing state of the environment situation and possible environment situation and possible

development in the future?development in the future?

Gaps in the EEA outlook analysesGaps in the EEA outlook analyses


Consumption patternsConsumption patterns

• The environmental pressures of consumption are generally lower than those of production, but are expected, as in the recent past, to grow significantly.

• Settlement patterns have considerable impacts at specific locations on water resources, land use and natural capital, particularly in connection with shifts in lifestyles and societal preferences.

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030Un

it of

GDP

per

wor

ker

(Inde

x, S

ituat

ion

in 1

990

= 10

0)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Peo

ple

over

65

(% o

f tot

al p

opul

atio

n)

Unit of GDP per worker (EU-15) Unit of GDP per worker (New-10)

% people over 65 (EU-15) % people over 65 (New-10)

GDP/worker

Pop>65y.


Lack of data, modelsLack of data, models

• Biodiversity,

• Defuse sources of pollution

• Detailed consumption patterns outlooks

• Natural hazards


Lack of feedback analysesLack of feedback analyses

• Impact of climate change and water availability to the agriculture and to the forestry

• Macro-economic feedbacks of environment policies


Lack of understanding of underlying Lack of understanding of underlying processprocess

• Urban and rural environment

• Spatial and land use outlook (PRELUDE scenarios)

• Health and chemicals outlooks

• Quality of life

• Extreme changes in the environment


EEA’s environmental scenarios portalEEA’s environmental scenarios portal

Web Portal

• EEA Reports

• Links to• institutions• networks• studies

• Library

• News

• Glossary

• Bibliographyhttp://scenarios.ewindows.eu.org


THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION.


UpdateUpdate

• Report published on the EEA web site on 11th September 2005 and shortly introduced at the Informal Environment and Agriculture Councils of ministers.

• The full report is available for download at: http://reports.eea.eu.int/eea_report_2005_4

• Supporting background information can be found on the 'Environmental Scenarios - Information Web Portal' at: http://scenarios.ewindows.eu.org/reports/fol949029

• Hard copies are also available.


Approach to air and climate change Approach to air and climate change outlooksoutlooks

Driving forces: - socio-economic scenarios from LREM/CAFE baseline- alternative ‘Low GHG emissions’ and ‘variants’ scenarios

Models:- transport & energy: PRIMES, POLES, (TREMOVE, SCENES)- emissions: TIMER, FAIR- air & climate change: RAINS, IMAGE

Output:- emissions (CO2, CH4, N2O, HFC, PFC, SF6, SO2,PM10, …) - climate change (temperature, precipitation)- impacts (ecosystem composition, growing season)


Approach to agriculture outlooksApproach to agriculture outlooks

Driving forces: - socio-economic scenarios from LREM/CAFE baseline - additional assumptions based on CAPRI model and CAP - fertilizer calibrated to match EFMA data - no climate change assumptions

Models:- CAPSIM (partial equilibrium model, economic accounts)

output:- cropping patterns (22 per country)- livestock patterns (11 animal products per country)- nutrient balances for N, P, K- gas emissions (N2O, CH4, NH3)


Approach to waste outlooksApproach to waste outlooks

Driving forces: - socio-economic scenarios from LREM/CAFE baseline

Models:- macroeconomic model developed by the EEA ETC Waste & Material Flows

Output:- waste: municipal, industrial, C&D, packaging, paper & cardboard, glass, tyres & waste oil

- material flows: minerals, biomass extraction, fossil fuels


Approach to water outlooksApproach to water outlooks

Driving forces: - socio-economic scenarios from LREM/CAFE baseline- climate change scenarios from IMAGE and PRIMES models- additional structural & technological change assumptions

Models:- WaterGAP (integrated water quantity model)- simple model on urban waste water treatment plants

Output:- water stress, water availability, water use (by domestic, electricity, industry, agriculture sectors) - per 0.5° grid- waste water from households, waste water treatment, nutrient discharges from treatment plants


Alternative scenarios and variantsAlternative scenarios and variants• Air and climate change:

• Air: Maximum Technical Feasible Reductions• CC: ‘Low GHG emissions’ scenario, low economic growth,

accelerated penetration of renewables, accelerated decommissioning / adoption of nuclear

• Agriculture:• Best practices for fertiliser handling, liberalisation of animal

product markets (Extended CAP reform), a stronger EURO

• Waste and material flows:• ‘Low GHG emissions’ scenario (for fossil fuels only), low

economic growth, Landfill Directive (biodegradable municipal waste)

• Water stress:• ‘Low GHG emissions’ scenario, low economic growth, non-

convergence of per capita water use in the New-10

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