OUTLOOK FOR LATVIA

ENERGY, GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS29-30 June 2004, EEA, Copenhagen

Janis RekisLatvian Investment and

Development Agency

•GHG emissions•Energy consumption•Outlook

GHG emissions

Latvian GHG emissions trend by gas excluding LUCF, Gg & %

77%73%

69% 69% 69%

12% 18%21% 20% 20%

11% 9% 10% 11% 11%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1990 1996 2000 2001 2002

22181

91376980 7409 7333

3588

2238

2089 2185 2165

3088

1110

10361165 1142

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

1990 1996 2000 2001 2002

N2O

CH4

CO2

Latvian GHG emission trend by sector gases excluding LUCF , Gg & %

77% 77%72% 72% 71%

2% 1%

2% 2% 2%

18%14%

15% 15% 15%

0%

1%1% 1% 1%

3%7%

11% 11% 11%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1990 1996 2000 2001 2002

22269

95547274 7714 7599

499

152

163 168 177

5161

1795

1497 1635 1617

106

70

86101 108

823

915

10861142 1140

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

1990 1996 2000 2001 2002

Waste

Solvent and Other Product Use

Agriculture

Industrial Processes

Energy

GHG emission trend in energy sector by sub sector and gas , Gg & %

21577

8921

6729 7136 7017

486

498

418433 434

206

135

128145 148

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1990 1996 2000 2001 2002

N2O

CH4

CO2

10218

43972702 2624 2493

1669

1203

1013 887 930

4733

2184

2304 2711 2717

5375

1560

1089 1329 1290

274

211

167162 169

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1990 1996 2000 2001 2002

1.B. Fugitive Emissions fromFuels1.A.4. Other Sectors

1.A.3. Transport

1.A.2. Manufacturing Industriesand Construction 1.A.1. Energy Industries

Energy consumption

GDP, GEC (TPES) and GHG indexesIndexes of energy and GHG intensities

-

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

19

90

=1

GDP

Energy Intensity

GEC

GHG Intensity

GHG

Gross energy consumption (GEC), PJ & %

4% 2% 2% 2%2%

1% 1% 1%

43%

32% 31% 30%

18%

26% 29% 29%

24%28% 29% 29%

9% 10% 9% 9%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1996 2000 2001 2002

Natural Gas Fuelwood Electricity

7 3 4 33

2 1 1

86

56 56 55

37

46 53 54

47

4953 54

18

17

17 17

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1996 2000 2001 2002

Coal & Coke Peat Oil Products & Shale oil

Structure of GEC in 2002, %

Fuelwood29.1%

Other34.5%

Peat0.5%

Hydro&Wind4.8%

Imported Electricity

4.6%

Coal & Coke1.7%

Oil Products & Shale oil29.9%

Natural Gas29.3%

Local energy sources

RES share in GEC and RES-E share in gross electricity consumption

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

RE

S,

RE

S-E

, R

ES

-E l

arg

e H

ES

0.0%

0.3%

0.6%

0.9%

1.2%

1.5%

1.8%

2.1%

Sm

all RE

S-E

RES-E CHP in gross electricity consumptionRES-E WPP in gross electricity consumptionRES-E small HPP in gross electricity consumptionRES-E in gross electricity consumptionRES-E large HPP in gross electricity consumptionRES in GEC

Energy consumption in transformation, PJ

- - - - - - - 2.2 1.1 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3

2.4 2.3 1.6 1.0 2.0 1.1 0.9

0.5 0.5

0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

15.1

6.2 6.7 7.7 3.7

2.2 2.4

19.0

15.8

14.4

9.7

4.5 2.9 2.3

10.0

20.6

16.2 15.4

16.3 20.8 21.4

8.8

8.1 11.1

11.3

14.2

14.3

12.6

-

-

- -

-

0.2 0.7

7.8

9.9 9.3

9.2

8.3 9.1

10.2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

CHP Heat Plants

Transformation Sector

Fuelwood

Natural Gas

Oil Products & Shale oil

Peat

Coal & Coke

Consumption of DH, PJ

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Heat

FC

Agriculture

Commerce and Public Service

Industry Sector

Residential

Final Energy Consumption, PJ & %

40% 39% 39% 39%

21% 22%25% 24%

23% 20%18% 18%

13% 17% 15% 17%

4% 3% 3% 2%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1996 2000 2001 2002Commerce and Public Service Agriculture

6755 61 61

35

32

38 38

39

29

29 29

22

24

24 27

6

4

4 4

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1996 2000 2001 2002

Residential Transport Sector Industry Sector

Final Energy Consumption, PJ & %

3% 2% 2% 2%0% 0% 0% 0%

30% 32% 32% 32%

9% 10% 10% 12%

23%28% 28% 27%

9%

11% 11% 11%

25%17% 17% 17%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1996 2000 2001 2002Natural Gas Fuelwood Electricity Heat

5 3 3 30 0 0 0

5046 51 50

16

1416 19

40

41

43 43

1616

16 18

42

25

26 26

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1996 2000 2001 2002

Coal & Coke Peat Oil Products & Shale oil

Fuel prices, US$(1994)/MWh

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Wood Exported

Peat Exported

Natural Gas Imported

Heavy oil Imported

Coal Imported

Forest density in administrative regions

Scenarios

GHG emission forecast according3rd National Communication, Gg

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

BS - Waste

BS - Agriculture

BS - Solvent and Other Product Use

BS - Industrial Processes

BS - Energy

Scenrio with measures - Total GHGemissions

Kyoto target

Forecast

???

Forecast of GDP

6791

3613 46

73

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

mill

ion

US

$(19

94)

at average prices of1994, mill. US$

Slow developmentscenario (2003)

EU(15) average level in2000

EU(15) average level(2001)

Fast convergencescenario (2001)

Convergence scenario(2001)

MARKAL

Stagnation scenario(2001)

Divergence scenario(2001)

CO2 emissions in energy sector, Ggdifferent growth rates for useful energy demand

Annual growth of (1999-2034)Scenario DM1 DM2 DM4 DM6

Useful energy demand 1.2% 1.4% 1.7% 2.1%

Electricity consumption 1.4% 2.1% 2.8% 3.8%

Gross energy consumption in DM2, PJ

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024

Energy efficiency

Electricity import

HPP & WPP

Fuel wood

Natural Gas

Oil Products & Shale oil

Peat

Coal & Coke

Final energy consumption in DM2, PJ

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024

Energy efficiency

Electricity

DH

Fuel wood

Natural Gas

Oil Products & Shale oil

Peat

Coal & Coke

Required additional RES-E, TWh with RES-E target 49.3%

0

2

4

6

8

1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024 2029 2034

DM6

DM4

DM2

DM1

CO2 reduction, Ggwith RES-E target 49.3%

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024 2029 2034

DM6

DM4

DM2

DM1

CO2 in energy sector in DM2 case, Gg (1)with CO2 emission constraint

Allowed cumulative CO2 emissions in energy sector for 45 years

(1992-2036), Gg

without constraint

+30% above stabilization 412542

+15% above stabilization 375896

stabilization in level 2000 after 2001 339250

CO2 emissions from energy sector, Gg (2) with CO2 emission constraint

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

DET...

DET+30%

DET+15%

DET 0%

DET... 11669 7319 7807 8999 9576 10525 11603 12891 14395

DET+30% 11669 7319 7538 8445 8692 9234 9863 10069 9679

DET+15% 11669 7319 7492 7905 8133 8457 8302 7778 8125

DET 0% 11669 7319 7462 7260 6832 6821 6866 6758 6863

1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024 2029 2034

CO2 emissions from energy sector, Gg (3)deterministic cases vs. stochastic cases

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024 2029 2034

DET...

DET+30%

DET+15%

DET 0%

STOCH...

STOCH+30%

STOCH+15%

STOCH 0%