European Elections in the UKMedia Briefing

7th May 2014

UKIP and the 2014 EuropeanParliament elections

Dr Philip Lynch (PLL3@le.ac.uk)

& Dr Richard Whitaker (rcw11@le.ac.uk)

University of Leicester

UKIP and the 2014 European Elections

Philip Lynch (PLL3@leicester.ac.uk, @drphiliplynch) and Richard Whitaker (rcw11@leicester.ac.uk,

@rickwhitaker)

Department of Politics and International Relations, University of Leicester

UKIP go into the 2014 European elections in a far stronger position than they did five years earlier.

The crucial differences are first, that UKIP have not experienced the decline in support in general

election polling that they normally do after a European election. On the contrary, they are now

consistently placed in third position in polls of general election vote intentions. Second, their

ratings in polls of European election vote intention are some ten points higher on average than they

were in the run up to the 2009 contest for seats in the European Parliament (EP). Third, they have

more than double the number of members and a much better, even if still small base in local

councils having secured 147 seats in the 2013 local elections. Fourth, while they have benefitted in

the past from Conservative supporters lending UKIP their vote, they are in an even better position

to do so this time around given that the Tories are now in government. On top of that, if UKIP’s

campaign to win even more support from working class voters is successful, they will make

headway in areas where Labour are traditionally strong. The presence of the Liberal Democrats in

government alongside the collapse of the BNP add to the auspicious conditions for UKIP in 2014.

What do we know about likely UKIP voters at the 2014 European elections? Many Conservative

supporters do appear to be lending their vote to UKIP. Around one quarter of those who would

vote Conservative if a general election were held tomorrow, will vote UKIP at the European

elections, on the basis of a YouGov poll of over 5,000 respondents in late April. Furthermore, 41%

of those who voted Cons in 2010 say they will vote UKIP in May 2014. UKIP are therefore gaining in

the European elections at the expense of the Conservatives far more than from other parties. UKIP

are performing better among older and male voters and better among those in the C2DE classes

compared with those classified as ABC1. Nevertheless, they still gain support from a little below

one-quarter of ABC1 voters, a point that often seems to be neglected amid the party’s focus on

picking up working class voters. At the 2009 European elections, Euroscepticism was the most

powerful factor explaining the UKIP vote, with a desire to express views on the UK and the EU,

dissatisfaction with mainstream parties and attitudes to immigration also important. A recent

YouGov poll indicated that wanting out of the EU was the most frequently cited reason for

supporting UKIP at the upcoming EP elections, although this may be partly a result of some

respondents giving what they perceive to be the ‘right answer’ to the question.

Looking at those saying they will vote UKIP at a general election, the party has made the biggest

gains in the post-2010 election period among working class voters, as Ford and Goodwin spell out in

their book Revolt on the Right. Nevertheless, they also show that UKIP gains on support from across

a range of groups. Drawing on the British Election Study’s Continuous Monitoring Survey, fully 35%

of UKIP supporters in the April 2012-April 2013 period were managers or professionals.

The working class support that UKIP is gaining poses a problem for the Conservatives as well as

Labour. Some of these working class UKIP voters are ex-Conservatives, others are blue collar voters

who are part of a social group that the Conservatives used to attract but who now seem beyond

their reach. These are the type of voters for whom the patriotism, social authoritarianism and

aspirational aspects of Thatcherism were attractive. In winning working class support, UKIP makes it

more difficult for the Conservatives to be a cross-class, cross-national party. Working class

conservatives now face a Tebbit test about which side to cheer for, the Conservative Party or UKIP.

UKIP’s expansion has brought with it some growing pains. The party has broadened its narrative to

encompass policies – such as immigration – beyond its core issue of leaving the EU. However, a

disconnect persists between the views of many in the UKIP leadership who favour Thatcherite

economic policies and are socially liberal, and UKIP’s socially conservative, working class

supporters. Nigel Farage has disowned UKIP’s 2010 election manifesto, and the party’s 2014 local

and European election manifestos have a sharper focus on ‘betrayed working people’ than

previously. Their current policy review could be used to dilute their small state, low tax approach

but whether donors and activists would tolerate major changes in the party’s economic policy is not

clear. In addition, growth has brought pressure for organisational change. The party has improved

its approach with tougher candidate selection procedures for the European elections for instance.

Nevertheless, the selection of candidates for council seats has clearly not been without problems.

UKIP have belatedly realised the need to build up representation on local councils as part of the

route towards winning seats at Westminster. In addition they are aware of their poorer

performance among young people, women and ethnic minorities, and chose to feature all of these

groups in their first Party Election Broadcast of the campaign.

UKIP are set to expand their delegation in the European Parliament by some way at these elections.

The ‘new UKIP’ contingent will look different partly because there are only six incumbent MEPs

standing for the party and also because there are 6-7 women in winnable positions. Jane Collins

and Jill Seymour top the lists in Yorkshire and the Humber, and the West Midlands respectively.

Female UKIP candidates are in second place on the party’s lists in the North West, East Midlands,

South East and South West plus a third-placed female candidate (Diane James) in the 10-seat South

East region. 11 of the UKIP candidates in with a chance of winning a seat are former Conservatives

including William Dartmouth, formerly a Conservative peer, and Roger Helmer who defected from

the Tories in March 2012.

Success for UKIP would mean many of their key personnel will be MEPs including not only the

leader and deputy leader but their Director of Communications (Patrick O’Flynn), General Secretary

(Jonathan Arnott) and the head of their policy unit (Tim Aker). While UKIP are open about the

variation in approaches taken by their MEPs, those in major strategic positions for the party will

surely have to spend a good deal of their time in the UK in order to carry out their party-based

roles.

In the aftermath of the European elections comes the process of forming groups in the European

Parliament. Here UKIP may find things difficult in that their largest partner, the Italian Northern

League, looks set to join a group led by Marine Le Pen’s Front National and Geert Wilders’ Freedom

Party, if they can summon up the numbers of MEPs and member states needed. There may also be

some competition with the European Conservatives and Reformists group for the more palatable

Eurosceptics in the EP.

UKIP success will pose strategic dilemmas for other parties. Should UKIP win the 2014 European

elections, we can expect more dissent from Eurosceptic Conservative MPs who want to see the

party take a tougher line on the EU and immigration. If UKIP perform well in Labour’s heartlands at

a time when Miliband’s party are in opposition, Labour will face questions about how to respond to

UKIP’s appeal. Ignoring it may not be an option. Alternatives are to hold their position and

emphasise the Thatcherite elements of UKIP’s policies, or to move closer to UKIP on immigration

and the EU. Evidently some Lib Dem voters have shifted to UKIP – most likely those who wanted an

option other than the largest two parties. This trend could contribute to a sharp fall in Liberal

Democrat vote share in 2014. In any case, a UKIP victory will pose questions of strategy for all three

main parties.

06/05/2014

1

UKIP’s general and European electoral

performance

0.3

7

1.5

16.1

2.2

16.5

3.1

024681012141618

1997 1999 2001 2004 2005 2009 2010

Percentage of vote

Percentage of vote

Percentage of vote

Percentage of vote

Election yearElection yearElection yearElection year

General elections European elections

General election vote intention (2012-14, YouGov polls)

010

20

30

40

50

Date

Pe

rce

nta

ge o

f re

spo

nde

nts

Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14

Conservative Labour Lib Dem UKIP

Source: YouGov polls http://yougov.co.uk/publicopinion/archive/

European election vote intention (from YouGov polls) 2014

010

20

30

40

50

Date

Pe

rce

nta

ge o

f re

spo

nde

nts

15_Jan 18_Mar 27_Mar 28_Mar 4_Apr 22_Apr 25_Apr 27_Apr

Conservative

Labour

Lib Dem

UKIP

Green

BNP

Source: YouGov polls http://yougov.co.uk/publicopinion/archive/

06/05/2014

2

Region Cons Lab UKIP Lib Dem BNP Green Others

South

West30.2 7.7 22.1 17.2 3.9 9.3 9.6

West

Midlands28.1 17 21.3 12 8.6 6.2 6.7

East 31.2 10.5 19.6 13.8 6.1 8.8 10.1

South East 34.8 8.2 18.8 14.1 4.4 11.6 8

Yorks &

Humber24.5 18.8 17.4 13.2 9.8 8.5 7.9

East

Midlands30.2 16.9 16.4 12.3 8.7 6.8 8.7

North

West25.6 20.4 15.8 14.3 8 7.7 8.2

North East 19.8 25 15.4 17.6 8.9 5.8 7.5

Wales 21.2 20.3 12.8 10.7 5.4 5.6 24.0

London 27.4 21.3 10.8 13.7 4.9 10.9 11.1

GB 27.7 15.7 16.5 13.7 6.2 8.6 11.6

2009 European Parliament elections – share of vote (%)

UKIP in the 2009 European Parliament elections

Region UKIP vote % UKIP MEPs Round elected

South West 22.1 2 of 6 2, 5

West Midlands 21.3 2 of 7* 2, 6

East 19.6 2 of 7 2, 7

South East 18.8 2 of 10 2, 7

Yorks & Humber 17.4 1 of 6 3

East Midlands 16.4 1 of 5 3

North West 15.8 1 of 8 3

North East 15.4 0 of 3 -

Wales 12.8 1 of 4 4

London 10.8 1 of 8 6

Scotland 5.2 0 of 6 -

TOTAL 13 MEPs

2010 vote choice and current Westminster vote

choice by intention to vote UKIP in Euro elections

41

24

148

19

6

98

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2010 vote choice Current Westminster preference

% i

n c

ate

go

ry w

ho

wo

uld

vo

te

UK

IP i

n E

uro

ele

ctio

ns

Cons Lab Lib Dem UKIP

Source: YouGov European election poll, 27-30 April 2014, n=5331

06/05/2014

3

05

10

15

20

25

Date

Pe

rce

nta

ge o

f re

spo

nde

nts

Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14

Conservative Labour Lib Dem

Source: First YouGov poll in each month (http://yougov.co.uk/publicopinion/archive/)

Percentages of main party voters switching to UKIP, Jan

2012-Apr 2014

Sex, age, class by intention to vote

UKIP in European elections

29

26

10

17

31

37

23

34

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Male Female 18-24 25-39 40-59 60+ ABC1 C2DE

% i

n c

ate

go

ry w

ho

wo

uld

vo

te U

KIP

in E

uro

ele

ctio

ns

Source: YouGov European election poll, 27-30 April 2014, n=1141 UKIP EP voters

Why vote UKIP in Euro elecs?

Source: YouGov European election poll, 27-30 April 2014, n=1141 UKIP EP voters

05

101520253035404550

% o

f re

spo

nd

en

ts

06/05/2014

4

Percentage support for UKIP within

occupational groups

Source: CMS monthly

polls aggregated into 12

month groups.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

% o

f o

ccu

pa

tio

na

l g

rou

p s

up

po

rtin

g

UK

IP

Pro or manager

Routine non-manual

(clerical or sales)

Skilled manual or

supervisor

Semi or unskilled manual

Breakdown of UKIP support by occupation

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%Never worked

Semi or unskilled manual

Skilled manual or supervisor

Routine non-manual

(clerical or sales)

Pro or manager

Source: CMS monthly

polls aggregated into 12

month groups.

UKIP at 21: growing pains & maturity

• Growing pains

– maintaining support from former Conservatives while

repositioning as party for the working class

– tensions between ideology/policy of UKIP leadership &

positions of UKIP supporters

• UKIP a maturing party – ‘new UKIP’

– becoming more professional

– recognises need to build local presence

– sharper focus on winning working class support

06/05/2014

5

Age profile of UKIP European election

candidates, 2009 and 2014

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

18-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 61-70 71+

2009

2014

Source: Lynch and Whitaker survey for 2009 n=47 (68% response rate). For 2014:

UKIP internal publication, 2014 MEP Candidate details: Your candidates, your choice.

UKIP 2014 leading candidates

North East (3 seats): Jonathan Arnott

North West (8 seats): Paul Nuttall, Louise Bours, Steven Woolfe,

Shneur Odze

Yorkshire & Humber (6 seats): Jane Collins, Amjad Bashir, Mike Hookem

East Midlands (5 seats): Roger Helmer, Margot Parker, Jonathan Bullock

West Midlands (7 seats): Jill Seymour, James Carter, Bill Etheridge

East (7 seats): Patrick O’Flynn, Stuart Agnew, Tim Aker

London (8 seats): Gerard Batten, Paul Oakley

South East (10 seats): Nigel Farage, Janice Atkinson, Diane James,

Ray Finch

South West (6 seats): William Dartmouth, Julia Reid, Gawain Towler

Wales (4 seats): Nathan Gill

Scotland (6 seats): David Coburn

Post-EP election opportunities and

dilemmas

• Forming group in European Parliament

– Problems as most sizable partner at present is

Lega Nord (will go to Le Pen/Wilders group)

– Competition with Conservatives for more

palatable Eurosceptics

• Strategic dilemmas for other parties