European Architectural Barometer Q1 2020 · Q1 2019 Value Q4 2019 Value Q1 2020 Q-2-Q development...

European Architectural Barometer – Q1 2020product of

Theme: Media orientationApril 2020

Preface

Forecast overview

Economic and construction figures per country

Theme part: Media orientation

Research background

Appendix

Index

4

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx%

€ xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx

€ xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx


xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% 1,7% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx%

€ xx € xx € xx € xx € xx € 266 € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx

€ xx € xx € xx € 88,1 € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx

€ xx € xx € xx € 177,4 € xx € xx € xx € xx € xx









Barometer forecastsbuilding construction

Building volumes in billion euros

Building volumes in billion euros in the new-build segment

Building volumes in billion euros in the renovation segment

Forecast overviewFuture construction volumes in total, new-build and renovation

5

Forecast overviewFuture building volumes in total, new-build and renovation

Barometer forecastsbuilding construction

Building volumes in billion euros

Building volumes in billion euros in the new-build segment

Building volumes in billion euros in the renovation segment

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

















Index

Preface

Forecast overview

Economic and construction figures

Germany


Research background

Appendix

13%

3%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Q1 '0

9

Q1 '1

0

Q1 '1

1

Q1 '1

2

Q1 '1

3

Q1 '1

4

Q1 '1

5

Q1 '1

6

Q1 '1

7

Q1 '1

8

Q1 '1

9

Q1 '2

0

EU GE

7

Development of order book Expecting empty order book in 12 months

Increase of more than 5% Increase of 0-5% Remains the same (0%)

Decrease of 0-5% Decrease of more than 5%

Based on previous year

Rolling Order book Barometer (based on Q4 2008)

Architects remain very positive about their order books.

-550

-450

-350

-250

-150

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550

650

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Q1 '0

9

Q1 '1

0

Q1 '1

1

Q1 '1

2

Q1 '1

3

Q1 '1

4

Q1 '1

5

Q1 '1

6

Q1 '1

7

Q1 '1

8

Q1 '1

9

Q1 '2

0

8

For the first time in many years a

contraction of the German market is

expected.

1,2% 1,3% 2,2% 1,7% 2,4% 1,8% 0,8% -4,0%

Building permits - Residential

Building permits - Non-residential

Development building permits Economic and construction related indicatorsValue

Q1 2019

Value

Q4 2019

Value

Q1 2020Q-2-Q development

GDP (quarterly growth rate) (%)* 0.4 0.0 Na Down

Consumer confidence indicator** -0.2 -3.3 -4.6 Down

Industrial confidence indicator** 1.1 -16.1 -14.0 Up

Construction confidence indicator** 19.0 14.9 13.0 Down

Production value buildings (index 2015=100)** 113.5 112.5 Na Same (Q4-Q3)

Architects with postponed projects (%)*** 28 28 27 Up

Architects with cancelled projects (%)*** 16 18 12 Up

Building permits residential (index 2015=100)** 113.1 117.6 Na

Building permits non-residential (index 2015=100)** 117.7 120.5 Na

Source: *Country statistical office; ** Eurostat, *** Arch-Vision

Index 2015=100

Source: Eurostat

Building volumes

117,6

120,5

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

Q1 '1

5

Q1 '1

6

Q1 '1

7

Q1 '1

8

Q1 '1

9

80,6 84,2 85,4 88,1 91,1 93,8 95,5 97,8

171,0 171,0 175,5 177,4 180,6 183,0 183,4 170,3

251,6 255,2 261,0 265,5 271,8 276,7 278,8 268,1

€0

€50

€100

€150

€200

€250

€300

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

201

8

201

9

202

0

Building volumes new-build Building volumes renovation

9

Dummy data has been used on the following slides, this means no

real data of this quarter is shown.

10

NO IMPACT DECREASE DON’T KNOW

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

Expectations impact COVID-19 virus on turnover this year in Germany

Estimated turnover loss in Germany

Total

XX%5 till 20 March (total)

Until 13 March

After 13 March

Preface

Forecast overview



Europe

Research background

Appendix

Index

12

XX

XX

XX

XX

XX

XX

XX

Inner walls

Window frames and doors

Heating, cooling and ventilation

Top 10 - products / product groups information searched for

36%

36%

36%

36%

36%

36%

36%

36%

36%

36%

XX

XX

XX

XX

XX

XX

XX

Advice about products

Specification texts

Information about innovations

Top 10 - professionally related information searched for

36%

36%

36%

36%

36%

36%

36%

36%

36%

36%

13

Top 5 – Sources for trends in architecture and new possibilities

XX

XX

XX

Trade magazines

XX

Top 5 – Sources for technical properties sources

55%

55%

55%

55%

55%

Top 5 - Types of websites information is searched for on the internet*

Top 5 - Types of information searched for on the internet*

* Asked when mentioned internet in general

XX

XX

XX

Trade magazines

XX

55%

55%

55%

55%

55%

XX

XX

XX

Via social media

XX

55%

55%

55%

55%

55%

XX

XX

XX


XX

55%

55%

55%

55%

55%

80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80%

14

Usage of professional sources Importance of professional sources

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

Very

importantImportant Neutral Unimportant

Very

unimportant

Don’t

know

Manufacturer websites

Colleagues and peers

Architectural portals

Manufacturer brochures

Trade shows

Professional journals

Manufacturer and

supplier events

Social media

Email newsletters

XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%




Up to 39 years old

40 to 49 years old

50 to 59 years old

60 years or older

Usage of professional sources by age

16

50% 50% 50% 50%

39 years or

younger

40 to 49 years 50 to 59 years 60 years or

older2018 2020

Development professional usage of social mediaAge of architects professionally using social media

xx% xx% xxOf the architects use

manufacturer websites

Browse on the desktop/

laptop/ computer

Websites are visited

per week

Top 10 – Essential information on manufacturer websites

xx

xx

xx

xx


xx

xx

xx

xx

xx

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

Usage of manufacturer websites

Increased Stayed the same Decreased Don’t know

33% 33% 33%

Usage of manufacturer websites the past year

Top 10 – Essential information in manufacturer brochuresUsage of manufacturer brochures

xx% xx xx%Of the architects use

manufacturer brochures

Manufacturer brochures are

received in a month

Of the received manufacturer

brochures are read


33% 33% 33%

Usage of manufacturer brochures the past year

xx

xx

xx

xx


xx

xx

xx

xx

xx

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

Top 10 – Essential information in professional journalsUsage of professional journals

xx% xx xxOf the architects use

professional journals

Professional journals are

subscribed to

Professional journals are read

for more than 10 minutes


33% 33% 33%

Usage of professional journals the past year

xx

xx

xx

xx


xx

xx

xx

xx

xx

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

xx% xx%Of the architects use architectural portals Are using architectural platforms more

in the past 12 months

Usage of architectural portals Reason for using architectural platforms

Both inspiration and product information

Gathering product information

Inspiration

Don’t know

20%

20%

20%

20%


33% 33% 33%

Usage of architectural portals the past year

xx% xx% xx% xx%Of the architects use

social media

Use Facebook

professionally

Use Instagram

professionally

Use LinkedIn

professionally

Top 10 - Reasons for professionally using social mediaUsage of social media


33% 33% 33%

Usage of social media the past year

xx

xx

xx

xx

Latest news

xx

xx

xx

xx

xx

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

Usage of trade shows

xx% xx%Of the architects visited a trade show

In the past two years

intends to visit at least one trade show

again in the coming two years

Goal when visiting a trade show

xx

xx

xx

xx


xx

xx

xx

xx

xx

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

Preface

Forecast overview



Cross-country comparison

Research background

Appendix

Index

24









Usage of media and information sources

XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%









25

% (very) important minus (very) unimportant





Trade shows


Manufacturer and supplier events

Social media

Email newsletters

Importance of information sources

26

Usage, type of device, and amount of manufacturer websites visited weekly

xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx%


xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx




Usage, and amount of manufacturer brochures received and read monthly

27

Usage, and amount of professional journals subscribed to and read for more than 10 minutes








Inspiration

Product

information

Both

Most useful

architectural

platform

Usage, goal of usage, and most useful architectural portals

Logo’s most useful

architectural platform

Logo’s most useful

professional journal

28

Most visited

Trade show

Planning to

visit a trade

show

Trade show

that will be

visit mostly

Usage of trade shows and which are/ will be visited

43% 53% 31% 48% 78% 66% 52% 53%

78% 85% 85% 90% 96% 91% 95% 92%

Usage of social media, type of platform, and device


Most used

social media

Professionally

Most used

device

Logo’s most visited / most

likey to be visited trade show

Preface

Forecast overview



Germany

Research background

Appendix

Index

30

Top 10 - products / product groups information searched for

Top 10 - professionally related information searched forPhase of the process active in

Design Planning Building supervision All parts

25% 25% 25% 25%

XX

XX

XX

XX

XX

XX

XX

Inner walls

Window frames and doors

Heating, cooling and ventilation

36%

36%

36%

36%

36%

36%

36%

36%

36%

36%

XX

XX

XX

XX

XX

XX

XX


Specification texts

Information about innovations

36%

36%

36%

36%

36%

36%

36%

36%

36%

36%

31

Top 5 – Sources for trends in architecture and new possibilities

Top 5 – Sources for technical properties sources

Top 5 -Type of websites information is searched for on the internet*

Top 5 - Type of information searched for on the internet*

XX

XX

XX

Trade magazines

XX

XX

XX

XX

Trade magazines

XX

55%

55%

55%

55%

55%

XX

XX

XX

Via social media

XX

55%

55%

55%

55%

55%

XX

XX

XX


XX

55%

55%

55%

55%

55%

55%

55%

55%

55%

55%

80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80%

32

Usage of professional sources Importance of professional sources

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

Very

importantImportant Neutral Unimportant

Very

unimportant

Don’t

know





Trade shows


Manufacturer and

supplier events

Social media

Email newsletters

xx% xx% xxOf the architects use

manufacturer websites

Browse on the desktop/

laptop/ computer

Websites are visited

per week

Top 10 – Essential information on manufacturer websites

xx

xx

xx

xx


xx

xx

xx

xx

xx

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

Usage of manufacturer websites


33% 33% 33%

Usage of manufacturer websites the past year

Top 10 – Essential information in manufacturer brochuresUsage of manufacturer brochures

xx% xx xx%Of the architects use

manufacturer brochures

Manufacturer brochures are

received in a month

Of the received manufacturer

brochures are read


33% 33% 33%

Usage of manufacturer brochures the past year

xx

xx

xx

xx


xx

xx

xx

xx

xx

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

Printed Digital No preference

33% 33% 33%

35

xx% xx xxOf the architects use

professional journals

Professional journals are

subscribed to

Professional journals are read

for more than 10 minutes

xx% xx% xx%Read Read Read

Usage of professional journals the past year

Usage of professional journals Top 10 – Essential information in professional journals

Logo’s of journals


33% 33% 33%

xx

xx

xx

xx


xx

xx

xx

xx

xx

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

36


xx% xx% xx% xx%Of the architects

architectural

portals

Use architectural

portals for inspiration

and product

information

Use architectural

portals only for

product information

Use architectural

portals only for

inspiration

xx% xx% xx%ReadRead Read

Usage of architectural portals the past year

xx

xx

xx

33%

33%

33%

Top 3 - Reasons for visiting a trade show

xx% xx% xx% xx%Of the architects

visited a trade show

the past two years

Visited Visited intends to visit at

least one trade

show again in the

coming two years

Usage of trade showsUsage of architectural portals

33% 33% 33%

Logo’s of architectural portals

Logo’s of trade shows


xx% xx% xx%Of the architects use

social media

Use xx

professionally

Use xx

professionally

xx% xx% xx%Use xx

professionally

Use xx

professionally

Use xx

professionally

37

xx

xx

Latest news

xx

xx

33%

33%

33%

33%

33%

Usage of social media the past year

Top 5 - Reasons for using social media professionallyUsage of social media

Desktop Smartphone Tablet

Devices on which social media is used

xx% xx% xx%

Usage of social media

Logo’s of social media

33% 33% 33%

IndexPreface

Forecast overview



Research background

Appendix

Methodology

Quantitative phone research:

✓ 175 interviews per country in France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the UK

✓ 100 interviews in the Netherlands and Belgium

✓ Total: minimum of 1.250 interviews per quarter

39

Research background

Research objectives

The objective of the European Architectural Barometer of Arch-Vision is to offer

profound insight into the current economic situation and trends among architectural

firms in the Netherlands, Germany, the UK, France, Spain, Italy, Belgium and

Poland. The European Architectural Barometer provides knowledge about the

future building volumes and the way in which these building volumes will be

realised (trends).

Costs

Yearly subscription fee: € 6,000

Includes:

1. Four quarterly reports per year

2. Possibility to give your input on the questionnaire

Countries

Planning & Process each quarter

Draft questionnaire

Final questionnaire

Fieldwork, analysis, reporting

Report available

each quarter

40

Sample and methodology of the researchMost architectural firms have less than two FTE. Nevertheless, the focus of the European Architectural Barometer is on the larger firms. Therefore the research is

only conducted among architectural firms with two FTE and more. As the study is focused on architects active in construction, architects that are solely active in

interior or landscaping are excluded from the research.

The table below shows the number of successful interviews in each country. The difference between the gross sample of respondents that were reached (all reached

numbers) and the net sample of respondents that were reached, was caused by those architects who could not be contacted or had an incorrect phone number, and

those who did not meet the selection criteria (mostly due to the fact that the architectural firms had less than two FTE). The difference between the net sample of

respondents reached and the response are the number of architects who refused to participate.

Gross sample (all attempts to approach respondents) 2088 4089 3751 2643 1434 1416 3245 2020

Net sample (all approached respondents) 363 1022 176 405 259 477 263 510

Completed interviews 150 150 85 150 150 99 63 150

Response percentage (interviews/net sample) 41% 15% 48% 37% 57% 21% 24% 30%

Response

76%

65%59%

82% 83%77%

83%

57%

24%34%

41%

18% 17% 22% 17%

43%

UK GE FR SP IT NL BE PO

Average xx 5,9 xx xx xx xx xx xx

2 – 4 FTE

5 – 9 FTE

10 – 19 FTE

20 – 39 FTE

> 40 FTE

41

Background of the architects

The table below shows the average number of employees of the architectural firms within the current quarter of this research, divided by

country. The architectural firms with one employee were excluded from this research. The second table shows the segments in which

architects within this research are mostly active.

Number of FTE

Housing

Non-Residential

Segment mostly active

56%

26%

13%

3%

1%

42

Background of the architects

The figure below shows the split in activities in new build and renovation.

New development or renovation

31%

33%

18%

31%

11%

45%

30%

55%

23%

26%

12%

31%

63%

19%

13%

5%

46%

41%

71%

38%

26%

35%

57%

40%

New build Renovation Both as much

IndexPreface

Forecast overview



Research background

Appendix

44

Future

Construction

volumes

Sister

company

Barometer

Arch-Vision

Building

volumes

Interviews

The construction industry operates in a

delayed cyclical market, which means that

buildings designed today will not be ready until

at least two years from now. The economic

activities of architectural firms provide a strong

indication of the direction in which the

construction sector will develop in terms of

both building volumes and the way in which

building volumes will be realised.

Building volumes

Arch-Vision is a sister company of USP Marketing

Consultancy (www.usp-mc.eu), BouwKennis

(www.bouwkennis.nl), BauInfoConsult GmbH

(www.bauinfoconsult.de) and BuildInfoConsult

(www.buildinfoconsult.com). These are major

agencies each providing full-service research

support and specialised in the construction and real

estate markets.

Sister company

Architects have already been monitored by

several institutes in quite diverging ways in the

different countries. Arch-Vision launched this

European Architectural Barometer for a more

cohesive view. The European Architectural

Barometer is extremely useful for

organisations with a focus on Europe that also

want to compare the activities of architects in

different countries.

European Architectural Barometer

For decision makers charged with

considerations of company resources, staffing

and marketing strategy, a clear insight into

future construction volumes is essential.

However, economic indicators seldom provide

an adequate picture of these volumes.

Future construction volumes

All interviews are conducted by native

speakers. From the third measurement

onwards, two hundred interviews per country

have been completed per measurement. The

first two measurements were based on one

hundred interviews per country. Later, for the

Netherlands and Belgium, the measurements

returned to one hundred interviews.

Interviews

About Arch-Vision

45

Results per segmentFor three key questions from the current measurement of the European Architectural Barometer, the results are divided by architects that

realise most of their sales in the residential segment (0% – 30% non-residential), by architects that realise sales in both segments (31% - 70%

non-residential), and by architects that realise most of their sales in the non-residential segment (71% - 100% non-residential).

Segment most active

The tables on the following pages show the

abovementioned split with regard to the following questions:

• How did the turnover develop in this quarter

compared to the previous quarter?

• How did your order book develop in this quarter

compared to the same quarter last year?

• Do you expect that your order book might be empty

these coming 12 months?

57%

32%

20%

62%

48%

38%

62%

24%

30%

40%

44%

23%

38%

36%

33%

42%

13%

28%

36%

15%

14%

27%

5%

34%

0 - 30% 31 - 70% 71 - 100%

46

Short-term outlook among German architects

Expect empty backlog coming 12 months (%)

Q2Q Order Book Barometer (based on previous year)

Rolling Order Book Barometer (based on Q4 ’08)

2-9 FTE

10 or more FTE

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

19% 15% 19% 13%24% 14% 16% 22% 14% 20% 17% 18% 18% 16% 19% 20% 23% 25% 27% 21% 25% 26% 23% 29%

19%

82% 85% 81% 87%77% 86% 85% 78% 86% 80% 84% 82% 82% 85% 81% 80% 78% 75% 73% 79% 75% 74% 77% 71%

81%

109

591

3%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Q1

'11

Q1

'12

Q1

'13

Q1

'14

Q1

'15

Q1

'16

Q1

'17

Q1

'18

Q1

'19

Q1

'20

105

346

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Q1

'11

Q1

'12

Q1

'13

Q1

'14

Q1

'15

Q1

'16

Q1

'17

Q1

'18

Q1

'19

Q1

'20

Q2Q Turnover Barometer (based on previous quarter)

Rolling Turnover Barometer (based on Q2 '09)

47

A short-term outlook is also available for:

• UK

• France

• Spain

• Italy

• The Netherlands

• Belgium

• Poland

48

Development turnover and order book

% sales in

non-residential

0 -

30

31 -

70

71 -

100

0 -

30

31 -

70

71 -

100

0 -

30

31 -

70

71 -

100

0 -

30

31 -

70

71 -

100

0 -

30

31 -

70

71 -

100

0 -

30

31 -

70

71 -

100

0 -

30

31 -

70

71 -

100

0 -

30

31 -

70

71 -

100

Strongly increased (>5%) xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx%

Slightly increased (0-5%) xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx%

Stayed the same (0%) xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx%

Slightly decreased (0-5%) xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx%

Strongly decreased (>5%) xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx%

Barometer order book 103 112 106 106 109 114 121 107 97 97 97 90 79 83 98 109 120 119 108 123 100 120 96 85

% sales in

non-residential

0 -

30

31 -

70

71 -

100

0 -

30

31 -

70

71 -

100

0 -

30

31 -

70

71 -

100

0 -

30

31 -

70

71 -

100

0 -

30

31 -

70

71 -

100

0 -

30

31 -

70

71 -

100

0 -

30

31 -

70

71 -

100

0 -

30

31 -

70

71 -

100

Strongly increased (>5%) xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% 6% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx%

Slightly increased (0-5%) xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% 9% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx%

Stayed the same (0%) xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% 80% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx%

Slightly decreased (0-5%) xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% 6% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx%

Strongly decreased (>5%) xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% 0% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx%

Barometer turnover xx xx xx xx xx 107 xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx

Development turnover

(based on previous quarter)

Development order book

(based on previous year)

49

Expectation empty order book in the next 12 months

Expectation empty order book in the next 12 months

% sales in

non-residential

0 -

30

31 -

70

71 -

100

0 -

30

31 -

70

71 -

100

0 -

30

31 -

70

71 -

100

0 -

30

31 -

70

71 -

100

0 -

30

31 -

70

71 -

100

0 -

30

31 -

70

71 -

100

0 -

30

31 -

70

71 -

100

0 -

30

31 -

70

71 -

100

Yes xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx%

No xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx%

Do not know xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx% xx%

50

Building volumes split in new-build and renovation, residential and

non-residential

2021 2020 2019 2018

Resid

en

tial

New

-bu

ild

Resid

en

tial

Ren

ov

ati

on

No

n-r

esid

en

tial

New

-bu

ild

No

n-r

esid

en

tial

Ren

ov

ati

on

Resid

en

tial

New

-bu

ild

Resid

en

tial

Ren

ov

ati

on

No

n-r

esid

en

tial

New

-bu

ild

No

n-r

esid

en

tial

Ren

ov

ati

on

Resid

en

tial

New

-bu

ild

Resid

en

tial

Ren

ov

ati

on

No

n-r

esid

en

tial

New

-bu

ild

No

n-r

esid

en

tial

Ren

ov

ati

on

Resid

en

tial

New

-bu

ild

Resid

en

tial

Ren

ov

ati

on

No

n-r

esid

en

tial

New

-bu

ild

No

n-r

esid

en

tial

Ren

ov

ati

on

xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx








Amounts in billions at 2013 prices

The European Architectural Barometer for the order book development and turnover development

is calculated in the following way:

1. Respondents with a strong increase (>5%) are multiplied by 100

2. Respondents with a slight increase are multiplied by 50

3. Respondents that remained the same are multiplied by 0

4. Respondents with a slight decrease are multiplied by –50

5. Respondents with a strong decrease (>5%) are multiplied by –100

6. The sum of these values divided by 100, results in the Q2Q saldo.

7. Adding 100 to this saldo results in the Barometer figures, where 0 is the strongest possible decrease,

100 is stabilisation and 200 is the strongest possible increase.

The Barometer values calculated this way are presented in the report as Quarter to Quarter Turnover and

Order book Barometer.

51

Methodology calculation of the Q2Q Saldo and Barometer

Example of calculation Q2Q Barometer value:

Development

Turnover SpainQ2 ’15

Calculated

Values

Increased by more than 5% 25% x 100 2500

Slightly increased (0-5%) 28% x 50 1400

Stayed the same (0%) 36% x 0 0

Slightly decreased (0-5%) 3% x -50 -150

Decreased by more than 5% 8% x -100 -800

Q2Q Saldo = (2500 + 1400 – 150 – 800) / 100 = 30

Q2Q Barometer value = 100 + 30 = 130

To calculate the developments in the turnover and the order book with regard to the first measurement in

2009, Arch-Vision has developed the so called Rolling Barometer. The Rolling Barometer is calculated as

the cumulative sum of the Q2Q saldos of every quarter. The Rolling Barometer can drop or rise by 100

points per quarter at maximum.

Example: The Rolling Order Book Barometer is -66 after twelve quarters. In the worst case (all architects

reporting a decrease of over 5% every quarter) the Rolling Barometer would be -1200. In the best case it

would be 1200. Therefore a score of -66 in Q4 2011 means a slightly worse situation than in Q4 2008.

52

Methodology calculation of the Q2Q Saldo and Barometer

Barometer order book

Q1’09 Q2’09 Q3’09 Q4’09 Q1’10 Q2’10 Q3’10 Q4 ‘10 Q1 ‘11 Q2 ‘11 Q3 ’11 Q4 ‘11

Q2Q Barometer values 71 75 100 85 100 110 94 94 111 102 94 99

Saldo Q2Q Values -29 -25 0 -15 0 10 -6 -6 11 2 -6 -1

Rolling Barometer Values -29 -54 -54 -69 -69 -59 -65 -71 -60 -59 -65 -66

+ (-25) + (0) + (-15) + etc.

53

Future building volumes: building a model for prediction

Architects are at the front of the construction sector. They are the first

to perceive positive and negative changes. The current developments

of architectural firms have a strong predictive impact on the total

market. Arch-Vision publishes its predictions for the building volumes

based on the developments experienced by architects.

Building

volumes

Arch-Vision uses a model based on eleven market indicators and

Arch-Vision’s own results. The model combines information about the

economy, like construction requests and confidence figures, with data

about the developments within architects’ experience, such as

changes in the turnover and the number of active architects. Only

information that proved to have a strong correlative value on the

building volume is used. Subsequently, every kind of data is weighed

based on the predictive value.

The model

To ensure the correctness of the predictive value, the model has been

– with retroactive effects – compared to the actual growth and

shrinkage of the construction volume since 2003 for the Dutch* market

and since Q3 2009 for the remaining countries. The model turns out to

possess a very high predictive value. Nevertheless, the forecast has

to be interpreted with caution, as it remains a calculation. As with all

predictions, the margin of error can be larger, comparable to the

weather forecast: sometimes the Arch-Vision model can be

inaccurate.

High

predictive

value

The predictive value is calculated based on the consistency of the

market indicators with construction volumes, for the renovation,

maintenance and the new build markets. The correlation is

determined by a regression analysis, i.e. a statistical technique for

analysing data in which there is a (possible) specific connection,

known as regression.

Calculation

predictive

value

* Since 2003 the developments at architects in the Netherlands have been monitored by Arch-Visions’ sister organisation BouwKennis. Therefore, it is possible for the Netherlands to calculate the

connection between the architects and the building volume based on 10 years of data.

54

Future building volumes: reliability of the model

The reliability of a prediction model is closely related to the length of a series of data. A time series of ten years - and thus 43 quarters - is reliable to

determine consistency. However, the results of Arch-Vision do not go back that far. Additionally, in some countries - like Italy - figures of for instance building

permits as well as consumer and producer confidence are not always available for the last quarter (or last quarters).

The reliability will therefore increase each quarter, as the time series will be getting larger and more consistent. The explanatory power of the model will

continue to grow, as calculations can be performed based on more periods (quarters).

Market volume

New build

Renovation

Maintenance

~40%Architect developments

and expectations

~60%Mix of market indicators

~25%Architect developments/expectations

~75%Mix of market indicators

Market influence

Market influence

55

Future building volumes: Calculation

The Dutch market has been taken as a basis. The correlation between market volume regarding new build, maintenance and renovation on the one hand, and

possible explanatory factors on the other hand, serves as a starting point.

The correlation with building volumes is tested for a total of eleven market indicators together with two outcomes of the European Architectural Barometer.

The correlation of the following four indicators appeared to be strongest:

• Building permits – m² of useful floor area in non-residential buildings

• Building permits, number of dwellings

• Development of Turnover Barometer (European Architectural Barometer figures)

• Number of FTE working at architectural companies (European Architectural Barometer figures)

The predicting value of these indicators is between 54% and 91%. Because a longer history of data was not available for most countries, the development of

these four indicators in the last four quarters and the four quarters before served as a guidance for this measurement. The used range of five indicators is not

static and can be adjusted for future calculations. With the database becoming more complete, more reliable correlations can adjust the mix of indicators. A

longer range of regression measurements shall replace the comparison of the last four quarters with the four quarters before.

The forecast is based on the market knowledge of USP Marketing Consultancy together with the market figures available, such as building permits and the

developments among architects who are mainly active in renovation or new build as well as mainly active in residential or non-residential. Due to the limited

number of quarters, a forecast based on a statistical model is not possible for now. The model that was used has a lower prediction value for this period.

However, USP Marketing Consultancy aims at clarifying the general direction of the construction market development by publishing these data and the

predictions will be updated in the coming reports.

56

Questionnaire – StandardThese questions are asked every measurement

1. How many employees (in FTE) does your company currently have, including yourself? [if less than 2 FTE, end of research]

2. What is your position?

3. As an architectural firm, are you mostly active in the segment housing, non-residential building, interior or landscaping? [If interior or landscaping, end of

research]

4. How many employees in FTE did your company have at the end of 2018?



7. If your turnover should relate to housing and non-housing, what percentage of your revenue do you get from housing-related jobs?

8. Are you mostly active in new build or renovation?

9. How did the turnover develop this quarter compared to the previous quarter? Decreased by more than 5%; Slightly decreased (0-5%); Stayed the same

(0%); Slightly increased (0-5%); Strongly increased (more than 5%)

10.How did your order book develop in this quarter compared to the same quarter previous year? Decreased by more than 5%; Slightly decreased (0-5%);

Stayed the same (0%); Slightly increased (0-5%); Strongly increased (more than 5%)

11. How many projects have been postponed in this quarter?

12. How many projects were not started and cancelled in this quarter?

13. Do you expect that your order book might be empty these coming 12 months?

57

Questionnaire – Theme questions

1. For which products or product groups do you usually search for information?

2. What kind of professionally related information do you usually search for?

3. And if you search for trends in architecture and new possibilities, what are your two main sources?

4. And if you search for technical product properties, what are your two main sources?

5. Via what type of websites do you search for information on the internet when working on your projects? [when internet in general is mentioned]

6. What type of information do you in general search for on the internet? [when internet in general is mentioned]

7. And did you use any of the following sources in the past 12 months? You can answer with 'Yes' or 'No'

• A website of a manufacturer

• Architectural portals, platforms and websites

• E-mail newsletters

• Manufacturer brochures

• Professional colleagues/ peers

• Professional journals and magazines

• Social media

• Visiting events of manufacturers/ suppliers

• And have you visited any trade fairs or design shows for in the past 2 years?

8. And how important are these sources [Q7] for your orientation on your projects? You can answer on a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 = Not important at all; 2 =

Not important; 3 = Neither important nor unimportant; 4 = Important; 5 = Very important.

9. On which device do you mainly browse for the website of manufacturers?

• Desktop

• Mobile phone

• Tablet

10.Can you make an estimation of the number of websites of manufacturers that you visit weekly?

11.What is for you as an architect essential information that you expect at a manufacturer website?

12.Did your usage of manufacturer websites increase, stay the same or decrease in the past 12 months?

13.Which social media do you professionally use?

14.On which devices do you professionally use social media?

• Desktop

• Mobile phone

• Tablet

58

Questionnaire – Theme questions

15.What are the most important reasons for you to professionally use social media?

16.Did your professional usage of social media sources increase, stay the same or decrease in the past 12 months?

17.Which architectural portals, platforms or architectural websites do you use?

18.Do you use architectural portals, platforms and websites for inspiration or rather for gathering product information?

19.Did your usage of architectural portals, platforms and specific websites increase, stay the same or decrease in the past 12 months?

20.How many manufacturers brochures do you receive in a month? And what percentage of these do you actually read or use?

21.Do you use printed or digital brochures?

22.And what is your preferred format? [when both]

23.What type of information do you search for when using a manufacturer brochure?

24.Did your usage of manufacturer brochures increase, stay the same or decrease in the past 12 months?

25.How many professional journals or magazines do you read for more than 10 minutes and how many are you subscribed to?

26.Which professional journal or magazine is most useful to you?

27.What type of information do you normally search for in professional magazines or journals?

28.Did your usage of professional brochures increase, stay the same or decrease in the past 12 months?

29.Which trade shows or design shows did you go to in the past two years?

30.Which trade shows or design shows do you plan to visit the coming two years?

31.What is your goal when visiting trade shows?

32.Could you please tell me in which age group you belong?

33.Do you mainly work on:

• Design

• Planning

• Building supervision

• I work on all parts of the process

59

USP in figures

USP Marketing Consultancy

Total

70

Head office Subsidiary

Rotterdam Düsseldorf

Research AnalystsProject managers

Consultants

Market specialist installation, construction and DIY from the start

Dedicated and multi-client research

Active in the market for over 25 years

220 dedicated market research projectsin 2018

Revenue distribution

turnover coming from international projects

70%

turnover coming from dedicated market

research, 10% from multi-client

90%

turnover coming from B2B, 30% B2C

70%

focus groups in-depth interviews

82 1.102

B2B CATI interviews

B2C online interviews

57.881 57.250

Research in

39countries in 2018

60

USPs of USP

Deep knowledge of the

industry

Experienced in qualitative

and quantitative market

research

Dedicated market

research both B2B and

B2C

Market specialist for the

construction, DIY and

installation market for

over 25 years

Strong network of

partners covering all

major countries in the

world

Ability to conduct

research in multiple

countries at the same

time

Multi client reports

covering installers,

contractors, painters,

consumers and architects

Fact based consultancy

Dedication, honesty and

love for the industry

Ability to target all

relevant stakeholders in

the construction and DIY

markets

61

What we do – Dedicated market research

Examples Dedicated market research

• Tailor made

• Driven by your information needs

• Advice & consultancy based on facts and over 25 years of experience in the industry

• Worldwide coverage

• B2B, B2C, qualitative and quantitative research or a combination of both

• Within our market specialism, all types of researches can be conducted

• Targeting the right audience, with the right questions at the right time.

Segmentation Customerjourney

Branding Concept/product research

Customersatisfaction

Trends Distributionresearch

Marketexploration

Pricing Marketsize

62

Country scope

Providing continuous information for our clients about their main target groups based on facts. Providing insights on key trends, turnover development, futurebuilding volumes, background characteristics of the target groups and much more.

European architectural

Barometer

8 countries

reports quarterly

6,400 interviews by

phone annually

Trends like BIM, DMU,

Media orientation and

future building

volumes

Architects

European contractors

monitor

8 countries

reports bi-annually

2,200 interviews by

phone annually

Trends like BIM, DMU,


branding

Contractors

European mechanical

installation monitor

6 countries

reports quarterly

4,800 interviews by

phone annually

Trends like Branding,

purchase channels,


characteristics including

turnover and order book

developments

HVAC installers

European electrical

installation monitor

7 countries

reports quarterly

4,800 interviews by

phone annually

Trends like Branding,

purchase channels,


characteristics including

turnover and order book

developments

Electrical installers

Painter insights

8 countries

reports yearly

2,000 interviews by

phone annually

Trends like mechanical

application, labour

shortage, purchase

points and branding

Painters

European home

improvement monitor

11 countries

reports quarterly

26,400 online interviews

annually

Trends like DIY vs

DFM, online buying,

branding and

information on a

product level

Consumers

63

What we do – Multi client research

64

Clients of USP

Construction Installation DIY Living & Real Estate

65

Trends & Vision in the market

Shifting decision making

Building information

modelling will become a

license to operate

Design, Build and

maintainSmart homes / offices Ageing society in Europe

Going from gas heating

towards electric

Prefab will become more

widespread

Online buying of products

by professionals

Changing role of the

wholesale

Qualitative & quantitative

labour shortage Europe

Building industry needs to

become smarter, faster

and cheaper

Digitisation

Increase influence

engineers & contractors

Changing role of the DIY

stores

66

For questions and more information

Jan-Paul Schop

Managing Director

[email protected]

+31 6 55786342

Jeroen de Gruijl

Project Manager Arch-Vision

[email protected]

+31 6 83979041

Dirk Hoogenboom

Research Consultant

[email protected]

+31 6 52098924

© January, 2020 USP Marketing Consultancy B.V.

The information in this publication is strictly confidential and all relevant copyrights,

database rights and other (intellectual) property rights are explicitly reserved.

No part of this publication may be reproduced and/or published without the prior

written permission of USP Marketing Consultancy B.V.

Max Euwelaan 51

3062 MA Rotterdam

+31-10-2066900

[email protected]

https://www.usp-mc.nl/en/

Head office USP Marketing Consultancy B.V.

Max Euwelaan 513062 MA, Rotterdam

+31-10-2066900

+31-10-2066901

[email protected]

+31-10-8002700

www.usp-mc.nl

Where can you find us?

© 24 April 2020, USP Marketing Consultancy B.V.

The information in this publication is strictly confidential and all relevant copyrights, database rights and other (intellectual)

property rights are explicitly reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced and/or published without the prior

written permission of USP Marketing Consultancy B.V.

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