Europe Fair Value Q1 2014 - dtz.fi › ... › DTZ-Foresight-European-Fair...2014.pdfEurope Fair...

12
DTZ Foresight Europe Fair Value Q1 2014 Improving economy makes peripherals attractive DTZ Research 29 April 2014 Contents Fair Value highlights 2 Fair Value projections 3 Required and expected returns 4 Market classifications 5 Office forecasts 7 Retail forecasts 8 Industrial forecasts 9 Fair Value methodology 10 Authors Charlie Browne Senior Analyst +44 (0)20 3296 2295 [email protected] Karl Kelly Junior Analyst +44 (0)20 3296 2314 [email protected] Contacts Magali Marton Head of CEMEA Research +33 (0)1 4964 4954 [email protected] Fergus Hicks Global Head of Forecasting +44 (0)20 3296 2307 [email protected] Hans Vrensen Global Head of Research +44 (0)20 3296 2159 [email protected] The European property market continues to present attractive opportunities to investors for the time being. The DTZ Fair Value Index TM for Europe rose slightly this quarter, up to 74 from 72 in Q4 (a score of 100 indicates that all markets are underpriced for investors and zero that all markets are overpriced). Over the next twelve months we expect investor demand to continue to remain high. However rises in bond yields will see opportunities to make excess returns from property diminish. We expect both the European and UK Fair Value index scores to fall this year. We expect investment opportunities will disappear more rapidly in the UK and predict that the UK Fair Value index score will fall below 50 in the second half of the year. At this point there will be more overpriced than underpriced markets. In the European market overall on the other hand, attractive investment opportunities are expected to be prevalent for slightly longer, with the Fair Value index not expected to drop below 50 until the beginning of 2016. Although Ireland still offers some of the best risk-adjusted returns in Europe, strong demand and stiff competition is seeing investors seek opportunities elsewhere as well. Moreover, improving economic outlooks for Spain and Italy have boosted prospects for income growth there and bond yields have fallen to record lows. Property assets in these markets are now looking attractively priced in comparison. We think that investment opportunities in Spain, Italy and Ireland are now at their peak and that the combined Fair Value Index for the three countries will begin to fall next quarter. Nonetheless we still expect the index to remain above 50 until at least the end of 2015 (Figure 1). Figure 1 DTZ Fair Value Index TM : Europe, UK and Ireland Spain & Italy projections Source: DTZ Research 0 25 50 75 100 Ireland, Spain and Italy UK Europe

Transcript of Europe Fair Value Q1 2014 - dtz.fi › ... › DTZ-Foresight-European-Fair...2014.pdfEurope Fair...

Page 1: Europe Fair Value Q1 2014 - dtz.fi › ... › DTZ-Foresight-European-Fair...2014.pdfEurope Fair Value Q1 2014 DTZ Foresight 2 Fair Value highlights European Fair Value IndexTM edges

DTZ Foresight Europe Fair Value Q1 2014

Improving economy makes peripherals attractive

DTZ Research

29 April 2014

Contents

Fair Value highlights 2

Fair Value projections 3

Required and expected returns 4

Market classifications 5

Office forecasts 7

Retail forecasts 8

Industrial forecasts 9

Fair Value methodology 10

Authors

Charlie Browne

Senior Analyst

+44 (0)20 3296 2295

[email protected]

Karl Kelly

Junior Analyst

+44 (0)20 3296 2314

[email protected]

Contacts

Magali Marton

Head of CEMEA Research +33 (0)1 4964 4954 [email protected]

Fergus Hicks

Global Head of Forecasting

+44 (0)20 3296 2307

[email protected]

Hans Vrensen

Global Head of Research

+44 (0)20 3296 2159

[email protected]

The European property market continues to present attractive opportunities to investors for the time being. The DTZ Fair Value Index

TM for Europe rose slightly

this quarter, up to 74 from 72 in Q4 (a score of 100 indicates that all markets are underpriced for investors and zero that all markets are overpriced).

Over the next twelve months we expect investor demand to continue to remain high. However rises in bond yields will see opportunities to make excess returns from property diminish. We expect both the European and UK Fair Value index scores to fall this year.

We expect investment opportunities will disappear more rapidly in the UK and predict that the UK Fair Value index score will fall below 50 in the second half of the year. At this point there will be more overpriced than underpriced markets. In the European market overall on the other hand, attractive investment opportunities are expected to be prevalent for slightly longer, with the Fair Value index not expected to drop below 50 until the beginning of 2016.

Although Ireland still offers some of the best risk-adjusted returns in Europe, strong demand and stiff competition is seeing investors seek opportunities elsewhere as well. Moreover, improving economic outlooks for Spain and Italy have boosted prospects for income growth there and bond yields have fallen to record lows. Property assets in these markets are now looking attractively priced in comparison.

We think that investment opportunities in Spain, Italy and Ireland are now at their peak and that the combined Fair Value Index for the three countries will begin to fall next quarter. Nonetheless we still expect the index to remain above 50 until at least the end of 2015 (Figure 1).

Figure 1

DTZ Fair Value IndexTM

: Europe, UK and Ireland Spain & Italy projections

Source: DTZ Research

0

25

50

75

100

Ireland, Spain and Italy UK Europe

Page 2: Europe Fair Value Q1 2014 - dtz.fi › ... › DTZ-Foresight-European-Fair...2014.pdfEurope Fair Value Q1 2014 DTZ Foresight 2 Fair Value highlights European Fair Value IndexTM edges

Europe Fair Value Q1 2014

www.dtz.com DTZ Foresight 2

Fair Value highlights

European Fair Value IndexTM

edges up slightly in Q1 The DTZ Fair Value Index™ for Europe rose slightly this quarter to 74, up from 72 in Q4 (a score of 100 indicates that all markets are underpriced for investors and zero that all markets are overpriced, Table 1). Falling bond yields across Europe have reduced required returns for property and made it seem more attractive in comparison. This quarter we have added twelve new UK markets to the Fair Value Index™ (six retail and six industrial). Once these markets are incorporated the Europe all property index remains at 74 though. The UK index score fell below Europe’s for the first time since 2010, reflecting strong demand for UK property which has resulted in further yield compression in regional markets. Moreover, the UK has seen a strong bounce back in its economy over the past six months.

Spain and Italy more attractive this quarter All but one of the markets covered in Spain and Italy are classified as Hot (underpriced), with Barcelona offices being upgraded this quarter. The only Warm market of the two countries is Rome offices. Although Ireland remains attractively priced, strong demand is seeing investors seek opportunities in other peripheral markets as well. Falling bond yields as confidence has returned and the economic outlook has improved has made prime assets in Spain and Italy look increasingly attractive (Figure 2). The outlook for France is not as bright as that of other core European countries, reflected in weak economic prospects, and leading to weak return expectations on property. There are currently three Hot, five Warm and two Cold markets in France, giving an index score of 55, one of the lowest in Europe. The two cold markets are Paris Western Crescent offices and Paris CBD offices, where expected returns are dampened by negative capital growth driven by an expected outward shift in yields over the forecast period.

Industrial is the most attractive sector in Europe Industrial is currently the most attractively priced sector in Europe with an index score of 87, and 26 hot markets, 9 Warm markets and no Cold markets. The retail index score is 78 while offices, on the other hand, are the least attractive sector with an index score of 60.

Table 1

Fair Value IndexTM

scores

Q4 2013 Original

1

Q1 2014 Original

1

Q1 2014 Expanded

2

Europe all property 72 74 74

Europe offices 55 60 60

Europe retail 84 80 78

Europe industrial 88 90 87

Asia Pacific all property 60 60 58

UK all property 73 60 64

1. Original coverage of 20 UK markets and 61 Asia Pacific markets.

2. Expanded coverage extended of 32 UK markets (retail and industrial

added for Bristol, Cardiff, Edinburgh, Leeds, Newcastle and Nottingham)

and 63 Asia Pacific markets (offices added for Chongqing and Wuhan).

Source: DTZ Research

Figure 2

DTZ Research European Fair Value IndexTM

: Geographic breakdown

Source: DTZ Research

10 2 3 1 22

42

11

5 7 419

5

65

65 13

147 6

11 3

74 100 92 84 75 75 73 64 55

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Cold (overpriced) Warm (around fair value) Hot (underpriced)

Page 3: Europe Fair Value Q1 2014 - dtz.fi › ... › DTZ-Foresight-European-Fair...2014.pdfEurope Fair Value Q1 2014 DTZ Foresight 2 Fair Value highlights European Fair Value IndexTM edges

Europe Fair Value Q1 2014

www.dtz.com DTZ Foresight 3

Fair Value projections

Yield compression drives expected returns Yield compression is expected to be strongest in the retail sector in peripheral markets over the next five years with falls of up to 80 basis points expected (Figure 3). Due to this, expected returns are relatively high for these markets, making them attractively priced. However, as yields fall the opportunity to take advantage of this compression will diminish going forward. As such, these markets will become less attractive as prices adjust towards fair value.

Spain, Italy and Ireland lag the UK We expect the European Fair Value Index™ score to fall as the year progresses, and will drop below 50 in early 2016. The property cycle in Spain, Italy and Ireland has lagged the UK and Europe overall since at least 2001 (Figure 4). We think the Fair Value Index

TM for Spain, Italy and Ireland

combined is at its peak, with these markets offering the most plentiful investment opportunities. We expect these markets will continue to offer value in the near term, with the index score remaining above 50 until at least the end of 2015. However, we do think that the Fair Value Index™ for them will begin to fall as soon as next quarter. Over the past six months the UK Fair Value Index

TM has

showed its largest fall since the first quarter of 2010. This has been due to heightened investor demand in the regions pushing yields down and making property less attractive for buyers. We expect that investment opportunities in the UK will continue to diminish, and expect the UK Fair Value index score to drop below 50 in the second half of the year. At this point there will be more overpriced than underpriced markets. On the other hand, we expect the combined index score for Spain, Italy and Ireland to remain above 50 until at least the end of 2015.

Investment activity in peripherals to gain momentum Investment volumes are expected to continue to grow in 2014 and 2015 and this demand is expected to keep yields at their current levels this year. Size and liquidity are an issue in Dublin and mean that investors are finding it more difficult to find prime assets, especially in the office market. Spain and Italy are increasingly attractive due to a more positive economic outlook and attractive pricing. We expect volumes in both countries there to increase to around €4 billion in both countries in 2014 and then up to €5 billion in 2015. In Ireland, we expect volumes of €3 billion in both 2014 and 2015 (Figure 5).

Figure 3

Retail yield forecasts in Spain Italy and Ireland

Source: DTZ Research

Figure 4

DTZ Fair Value IndexTM

: Europe, UK and Ireland Spain & Italy projections

Source: DTZ Research

Figure 5

Investment volumes forecasts (EURbn)and Q4 Fair Value Index

TM (Q4) projections: Spain, Italy and Ireland

Source: DTZ Research

4

5

6

7

Dublin Retail Rome Retail Barcelona Retail

Milan Retail Madrid Retail

0

25

50

75

100

Ireland, Spain and Italy UK Europe

20

12

68 9

4

8

1113

0

25

50

75

100

0

5

10

15

20

25

Investment volumes (LHS) Forecast (LHS)

FV Index (RHS)

Page 4: Europe Fair Value Q1 2014 - dtz.fi › ... › DTZ-Foresight-European-Fair...2014.pdfEurope Fair Value Q1 2014 DTZ Foresight 2 Fair Value highlights European Fair Value IndexTM edges

Europe Fair Value Q1 2014

www.dtz.com DTZ Foresight 4

Required and expected returns

Risk of deflation Spanish, Italian and Irish five year government bond yields are currently lower than those of the UK after falling again over the quarter (Figure 6). Investors continue to be more confident about future economic growth in these countries and the risk premium on their bonds has fallen to record lows. The major downside risk to the eurozone recovery is the increasing threat of deflation, with eurozone inflation falling to 0.5% in March. The European Central Bank is strongly considering embarking on a QE programme to stave off this possibility, with asset purchases expected to total around €1 trillion and span a broad range of assets. It is also possible that rates could be cut further in 2014. The effect of these signals is that bond yields have fallen on the expectation that loose monetary policy will continue for the foreseeable future in the eurozone.

Bond yields expected to edge higher in medium term Although the prospect of QE has helped push bond yields in eurozone countries down, eventually rates are expected to rise. Moreover, the prospect of interest rate increases in the US is expected to exert some upward pressure on global bond yields. The convergence of bond yields between core and periphery economies is not expected to continue for much longer. Investors are beginning to realise that safe returns can be achieved outside the bond markets, and as this continues, demand for bonds in these countries will subside. This will push bond yields higher and increase the required returns in our Fair Value Index

TM, diminishing the

attractiveness of European property markets (Figure 7).

Appetite for risk has increased Risk aversion continues to abate, with the spread between eurozone composite AA corporate bond yields and German government bond yields edging lower this quarter. Investor appetite for risk has increased in Europe. The spread has fallen gradually over the last ten quarters in a row from its peak of 170 bps to its current level of 60 bps. We expect that this will continue as the economic recovery strengthens (Figure 8).

Figure 6

Movement in five year government bond yields from Q4 2013 to Q1 2014 (basis points, LHS) and current yield (RHS)

Source: Bloomberg

Figure 7

Historical bond yields and forward rates

Source: Bloomberg

Figure 8

Spread between eurozone AA corporate bond yields and German 5 year and government bond yields

Source: Bloomberg

0%

3%

6%

9%

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

Quarterly change (LHS) Current yield (RHS)

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

2012 2013 2014 2015

Ireland Spain ItalyUK France Germany

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

SpreadGerman 5 year bond yieldEurozone AA corporate composite

60 bps

Page 5: Europe Fair Value Q1 2014 - dtz.fi › ... › DTZ-Foresight-European-Fair...2014.pdfEurope Fair Value Q1 2014 DTZ Foresight 2 Fair Value highlights European Fair Value IndexTM edges

Europe Fair Value Q1 2014

www.dtz.com DTZ Foresight 5

Market classifications

11 markets upgraded, 9 markets downgraded There are currently 65 Hot, 42 Warm and 10 Cold markets in Europe. Falling bond yields across Europe have reduced the required returns for property and made it seem more attractive in comparison. Nine markets were downgraded this quarter, while 11 markets were upgraded (Figure 9). Some of the upgraded markets were: Barcelona offices, Amsterdam offices and Copenhagen offices, which all moved from Warm to Hot. Others such as Stockholm offices and Marseille offices moved from Hot to Warm.

Falling bond yields make property look more attractive Pricing in Spain and Italy has improved significantly this quarter due to falling bond yields on the back of an improved economic outlook. Indeed, the Madrid and Milan industrial markets are significantly underpriced, and classified as Hot. While Dublin remains the most attractively priced market in Europe, there has been little change since last quarter. Demand has levelled off in as investors begin to seek returns elsewhere. On the other hand, many markets in the UK and Germany have become relatively unattractive, as yield compression over 2013 has reduced expected returns over the forecast period. Indeed, the London West End retail market and Hamburg office markets are among the most overpriced markets in Europe this quarter (Figure 10).

Expected returns highest in peripheral countries As the recovery in Europe has progressed, we are seeing investors moving up the risk curve, and looking outside of core markets in search of higher returns. This started in 2013, as seen in increased investor activity in secondary markets, which we expect to gather momentum in 2014. The majority of markets with the highest expected returns are in peripheral markets in Spain and Italy. Indeed, both Milan and Madrid offices currently offer expected returns of 9.2% p.a. and 8.9% p.a. respectively over the forecast period (Figure 11). This is driven by the combination of relatively high income returns and stronger capital growth on the back of some rental uplift and yield compression.

Figure 9

Movements in market classification from Q4 2013 to Q1 2014

Source: DTZ Research

Figure 10

Most over and under priced markets in core and peripheral countries

Source: DTZ Research

Figure 11

Five year expected and required returns – Q1 2014 (p.a.)

Source: DTZ Research

Q1 2014

Cold (10) Warm (42) Hot (65)

Cold (12)

8

Paris CBD offices

Hamburg offices

London West End retail

4

Stockholm offices

Marseille offices

Paris CBD retail

Warm (40)

2

Moscow offices

31

Rome offices

London City offices

Berlin offices

7

Barcelona offices

Amsterdam offices

Copenhagen offices

Hot (65)

7

Moscow retail

Edinburgh offices

Glasgow retail

58

Milan industrial

Dublin offices

Barcelona retail

Q4 2014

-25%

-15%

-5%

5%

15%

Q1 2014 Q4 2013

Cold

Warm

Hot

ItalySpain UK GermanyIreland

1.9% 1.8%0.6%

2.0%

4.4% 4.9%

4.3%

4.4%

5.15%6.00%

4.50% 3.85%

4.0% 2.9%

1.4% 2.1%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

5 year gilt yield Property premium

Income return Capital growth

Milan offices:Hot

Madrid offices:Hot

Munich offices:Warm

London WE offices:Warm

Page 6: Europe Fair Value Q1 2014 - dtz.fi › ... › DTZ-Foresight-European-Fair...2014.pdfEurope Fair Value Q1 2014 DTZ Foresight 2 Fair Value highlights European Fair Value IndexTM edges

Europe Fair Value Q1 2014

www.dtz.com DTZ Foresight 6

Map 1

European office market Fair value classifications and five year total return forecasts Q1 2014-Q1 2019 (% p.a.)

Source: DTZ Research

Page 7: Europe Fair Value Q1 2014 - dtz.fi › ... › DTZ-Foresight-European-Fair...2014.pdfEurope Fair Value Q1 2014 DTZ Foresight 2 Fair Value highlights European Fair Value IndexTM edges

Europe Fair Value Q1 2014

www.dtz.com DTZ Foresight 7

Office forecasts

Recovery gathering pace in some peripheral markets The pace of recovery picked up further in a number of countries through the first quarter of the year. Spain and Ireland have returned to growth, however, the Italian economy remains relatively stagnant. Core eurozone economies are unlikely to see significant growth in 2014, due to high unemployment, fiscal constraints and uncertainty in the banking sector. Overall European office rental forecasts are broadly unchanged at 2.0% p.a. for the 2014-2018 period. This reflects a slowly improving labour market, which will feed through to occupier demand and offices rents (Figure 12).

Investors seeking opportunities in non-core markets As developed markets are showing signs of a period of stability, investors are increasingly seeking to move into markets that were previously thought of as high risk. This is reflected in the yields of Vilnius and Milan offices, which are expected to decrease by 100bps and 40bps over the forecast period 2014-2018. At the same time, markets which were previously thought of as safe havens are becoming fully priced. We expect yields in cities such as Geneva and London City to increase by 75bps and 50bps respectively over the forecast period. There is much uncertainty over the ongoing relationship between Russia and the international economy, as such, we think that yields in Moscow will increase by 100bps over the forecast period due to investor wariness (Figure 13).

Dublin maintains top spot for total return forecast Total returns in the Dublin office market are still forecast to be the highest across Europe at 11.3% p.a. over the forecast period. This is mainly driven by capital growth of 5.8% p.a, boosted by rental growth and yield compression. Other cities offering high returns include Bucharest, with total returns of 10.4% p.a. forecast, along with Milan and Madrid, at 9.2% p.a. and 8.9% p.a. respectively. Moscow has seen the most significant decrease over the forecast period. This is due to an expected decrease in capital values as investors await further developments between Russia and the Ukraine (Figure 14).

Figure 12

Office rental growth forecasts (2014-18 p.a.) and Fair Value classifications

Source: DTZ Research

Figure 13

Office yields (year end figures)

Source: DTZ Research

Figure 14

Office total returns breakdown (Q1 2014- Q1 2019 p.a.) and Fair Value classifications

Source: DTZ Research

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

Hot Warm Cold

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Moscow London (City) Vilnius

Geneva Milan

Cold

Cold

Warm Warm

WarmHot Hot HotHot

Hot

-5 %

0 %

5 %

10 %

15 %

Income Returns Capital Growth Total Returns

Page 8: Europe Fair Value Q1 2014 - dtz.fi › ... › DTZ-Foresight-European-Fair...2014.pdfEurope Fair Value Q1 2014 DTZ Foresight 2 Fair Value highlights European Fair Value IndexTM edges

Europe Fair Value Q1 2014

www.dtz.com DTZ Foresight 8

Retail forecasts

Recovery expected to improve domestic demand In January 2014 the European Commission (EC) consumer confidence indicator surpassed its long-term average for the first time since July 2011. This upward trend was maintained in the following two months as consumers took a more positive outlook on the eurozone economy. However, there will be constraints as governments will need to keep a tight rein on spending in order to meet EU targets. This will be more apparent in some of the countries affected badly by the financial crisis. The Baltics are expected to see growth in consumer spending of 3-4% p.a. in response to swift falls in unemployment (20% to below 10%). Given this economic backdrop, we maintain our outlook for modest uplifts in European retail rents, with growth of 1.8% p.a. expected over the forecast period (Figure 15).

Investors looking for opportunities as prime becomes fully priced The improving economic situation in peripheral countries is attracting investors to cities such as Dublin and Rome. As such, we expect yields in both these markets to drop by 125bps and 75bps respectively over 2014-2018. On the other hand, for the likes of London (WE) and Stockholm, yields are expected to increase by 50bps and 35bps respectively over the forecast period (Figure 16).

Non-core markets expected to outperform core Dublin retail maintains the highest potential, with total returns of 13.8% p.a. expected over the forecast period. This is driven by capital growth of 8.3% p.a.. Moscow still offers reasonable total returns potential over the forecast period of 10.3% p.a., driven by income returns. However, once risk is taken into account the market is rated as Warm. Other markets which show promising total returns include cities from peripheral markets. Barcelona and Madrid are both forecast to deliver returns of around 9% p.a. respectively and Milan is expected to give returns of 8.5% p.a. over the forecast period. In contrast, core markets such as London West End and Munich offer much lower upside potential over the forecast period. Total returns for these markets are 0.7% p.a. and 5.8% p.a. respectively over the next five years (Figure 17). This reflects outward yield shift from current low levels.

Figure 15

Retail rental growth forecasts (2014-18 p.a.) and Fair Value classifications

Source: DTZ Research

Figure 16

Retail yields (year end figures)

Source: DTZ Research

Figure 17

Retail total returns breakdown (Q1 2014- Q1 2019 p.a.) and Fair Value classifications

Source: DTZ Research

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

Hot Warm Cold

2%

4%

6%

London (WE) Stockholm Dublin Rome

Cold

Warm

Hot HotHot Hot Hot Hot Hot

Hot

-5 %

0 %

5 %

10 %

15 %

Income Returns Capital Growth Total Returns

Page 9: Europe Fair Value Q1 2014 - dtz.fi › ... › DTZ-Foresight-European-Fair...2014.pdfEurope Fair Value Q1 2014 DTZ Foresight 2 Fair Value highlights European Fair Value IndexTM edges

Europe Fair Value Q1 2014

www.dtz.com DTZ Foresight 9

Industrial forecasts

Industrial production contributing to recovery Industrial production in the eurozone rose by 1.8% in the year to February, giving a 0.2% quarterly rise in the three months to February. This supports the belief that the eurozone recovery is continuing to gradually firm. However, if the euro remains strong, the competitiveness of eurozone manufacturers will decline and industrial production growth might slow as a result. Overall, European industrial rental growth is expected to increase to 1.5% p.a. over the forecast period 2014-18. Dublin remains the outstanding growth prospect, with industrial rental growth of 4.5% p.a. expected over the forecast period. Milan and Barcelona have the next two biggest growth prospects, forecast at 2.9% and 2.2% p.a. respectively over the 2014-2018 forecast period. Rental growth in core markets such as London and Amsterdam remains subdued, with forecasts of 0.8% and 0.6% p.a. respectively over the forecast period (Figure 18).

Yield gap expected to close Similar to previous quarters we are seeing a continuing trend of yield compression in peripheral and CEE industrial markets. Dublin is expected to see yield compression of 125 bps over the forecast period, along with Madrid and Bucharest, both seeing yield compression of 75 bps respectively over the forecast period 2014-2018. This is a result of increasing investor interest in secondary markets as investors aren’t finding attractive prices in prime locations. Overall, this will result in further tightening of the yield gap between core and non-core markets over the forecast period (Figure 19).

Capital growth being the main differentiator The outlook for industrial sector total returns remains broadly unchanged from last quarter. Income returns are still the main driver of total returns, with capital growth being the main differentiator across markets. The average income return for the overall European industrial market is expected to be 7.2%p.a. over the forecast period. This is accompanied capital growth of 1.7% p.a. over 2014-2018 (Figure 20).

Figure 18

Industrial rental growth forecasts (2014-18 p.a.) and Fair Value classifications

Source: DTZ Research

Figure 19

Industrial yields (year end figures)

Source: DTZ Research

Figure 20

Industrial total returns breakdown (Q1 2014- Q1 2019 p.a.) and Fair Value classifications

Source: DTZ Research

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

Hot Warm Cold

5%

7%

9%

11%

Marseille Antwerp Bucharest

Madrid Dublin

WarmWarm Hot

Hot Hot Hot Hot Hot Hot

Hot

-5 %

0 %

5 %

10 %

15 %

20 %

Income Returns Capital Growth Total Returns

Page 10: Europe Fair Value Q1 2014 - dtz.fi › ... › DTZ-Foresight-European-Fair...2014.pdfEurope Fair Value Q1 2014 DTZ Foresight 2 Fair Value highlights European Fair Value IndexTM edges

Europe Fair Value Q1 2014

www.dtz.com DTZ Foresight 10

Fair Value methodology The DTZ Fair Value Index

TM was launched in August 2010 and has now been rolled out for all 201 markets covered by DTZ

forecasts. Fair value is the value at which an investor is indifferent between a risk free return and the expected return from holding property, taking into account the extra risk of investing in the property asset class. When the property price is at fair value, an investor is being adequately compensated for the risk taken in choosing to purchase real estate; similarly, when the property price is below the fair value price, an investor is being more than compensated for the risk taken in choosing to purchase real estate. When buying at or below fair value, an investor does not necessarily buy at the bottom of the market. Our fair value analysis focuses on prime assets and a five-year investment horizon, and hold for the market overall; individual transactions may provide opportunities and risks beyond the average market view. For more information see the note DTZ Fair Value Estimates – Methodology and Examples at www.dtz.com

Page 11: Europe Fair Value Q1 2014 - dtz.fi › ... › DTZ-Foresight-European-Fair...2014.pdfEurope Fair Value Q1 2014 DTZ Foresight 2 Fair Value highlights European Fair Value IndexTM edges

Europe Fair Value Q1 2014

www.dtz.com DTZ Foresight 11

Other DTZ Research Reports Other research reports can be downloaded from www.dtz.com/research. These include:

Occupier Perspective Updates on occupational markets from an occupier perspective, with commentary, analysis, charts and data. Global Occupancy Costs Offices Global Occupancy Costs Logistics Obligations of Occupation Americas Obligations of Occupation Asia Pacific Obligations of Occupation EMEA Global Office Review India Office Demand and Trends Survey 2013-14 Sweden Computer Games Developers November 2013

Property Times Regular updates on occupational markets from a landlord perspective, with commentary, charts, data and forecasts. Coverage includes Asia Pacific, Bangkok, Beijing, Berlin, Brisbane, Bristol, Brussels, Budapest, Central London, Chengdu, Chongqing, Dalian, Edinburgh, Europe, Frankfurt, Glasgow, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Ho Chi Minh City, Hong Kong, India, Jakarta, Japan, Kuala Lumpur, Luxembourg, Madrid, Manchester, Melbourne, Milan, Nanjing, Newcastle, Paris, Poland, Prague, Qingdao, Rome, Seoul, Shanghai, Shenyang, Shenzhen, Singapore, Stockholm, Sydney, Taipei, Tianjin, Ukraine, Warsaw, Wuhan, Xian.

Investment Market Update Regular updates on investment market activity, with commentary, significant deals, charts, data and forecasts. Coverage includes Asia Pacific, Australia, Belgium, Czech Republic, Europe, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Mainland China, South East Asia, Spain, Sweden, UK.

Money into Property For more than 35 years, this has been DTZ's flagship research report, analysing invested stock and capital flows into real estate markets across the world. It measures the development and structure of the global investment market. Available for Global, Asia Pacific, Europe, North America and UK.

Foresight Quarterly commentary, analysis and insight into our in-house data forecasts, including the DTZ Fair Value Index™. Available for Global, Asia Pacific, Europe, UK and China. In addition we publish an annual outlook report.

Insight Thematic, ad hoc, topical and thought leading reports on areas and issues of specific interest and relevance to real estate markets. Deflation and Commercial Property March 2014 Tokyo Retail Market 2014 Great Wall of Money – March 2014 German Open Ended Funds – March 2014 China Investment Market Sentiment Survey January 2014 China The Technology Sector January 2014 Czech Republic Green buildings December 2013 Net Debt Funding Gap - November 2013 UK secondary market pricing - October 2013 Quantitative Easing - UK Regions - September 2013 Singapore Government Land Sales - September 2013 Property Investment Guide Asia Pacific 2013-2014

DTZ Research Data Services

For more detailed data and information, the following are available for subscription. Please contact [email protected] for more information.

Property Market Indicators Time series of commercial and industrial market data in Asia Pacific and Europe.

Real Estate Forecasts, including the DTZ Fair Value Index

TM

Five-year rolling forecasts of commercial and industrial markets in Asia Pacific, Europe and the USA.

Investment Transaction Database Aggregated overview of investment activity in Asia Pacific and Europe.

Money into Property DTZ’s flagship research product for over 35 years providing capital markets data covering capital flows, size, structure, ownership, developments and trends, and findings of annual investor and lender intention surveys.

Page 12: Europe Fair Value Q1 2014 - dtz.fi › ... › DTZ-Foresight-European-Fair...2014.pdfEurope Fair Value Q1 2014 DTZ Foresight 2 Fair Value highlights European Fair Value IndexTM edges

www.dtz.com DTZ Foresight 12

DTZ Research

DTZ Research Contacts

Global Head of Research

Hans Vrensen

Phone: +44 (0)20 3296 2159

Email: [email protected]

Head of Forecasting

Fergus Hicks

Phone: +44 (0)20 3296 2307

Email: [email protected]

Head of Strategy Research

Nigel Almond

Phone: +44 (0)20 3296 2328

Email: [email protected]

Head of UK Research

Richard Yorke

Phone: +44 (0)20 3296 2319

Email: [email protected] Head of CEMEA Research

Magali Marton

Phone: +33 1 49 64 49 54

Email: [email protected]

Head of North Asia Research

Andrew Ness

Phone: +852 2507 0507

Email: [email protected]

Head of South East Asia / Australia New Zealand Research

Dominic Brown

Phone: +61 (0)2 8243 9999

Email: [email protected]

Head of Americas Research

John Wickes

Phone: +1 312 424 8087

Email: [email protected]

Head of Asia Pacific Forecasting

Dennis Fung

Phone: +852 2250 8864

Email: [email protected]

DTZ Business Contacts

Global Chief Executive Officer

Tod Lickerman

Email: [email protected]

Chief Executive, EMEA

John Forrester

Phone: + 44 (0)20 3296 2002

Email: [email protected]

Chief Executive, North Asia

Edward Cheung

Phone: + 86 21 2208 0088

Email: [email protected]

Chief Executive, APAC

Henry Arundel

Phone: +61 (0)2 9492 8818

Email: [email protected]

DISCLAIMER

This report should not be relied upon as a basis for entering into transactions without seeking specific, qualified, professional advice. Whilst facts have been rigorously checked, DTZ can take no responsibility for any damage or loss suffered as a result of any inadvertent inaccuracy within this report. Information contained herein should not, in whole or part, be published, reproduced or referred to without prior approval. Any such reproduction should be credited to DTZ.

© DTZ April 2014