EU market situation for eggs and poultry Management Committee 20 October 2011.

EU market situation for eggs and poultry

Management Committee

20 October 2011

EU market situation for Eggs and Poultry Man Com 20 October 2011

2

Weekly evolution of the Community price for Broiler

135

145

155

165

175

185

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 4 43 46 49 52

€uro

/ 10

0kg

Avg 06 - 10 2008 2009 2010 2011


3

Percentual change of Broiler prices September 2011

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

BE BG CZ DK DE EE EL ES FR IE IT CY LV LT HU MT NL ÖS PL PT RO SI SK SF SV UK EU

- 1 year

- 1 month


4

Price of Basic Ingredients 2008 - 2011

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Juil Oct Jan 09 April Juil Oct Jan 10 April Juil Oct Jan-11 April Juil Oct Jan-12

Euro

/ to

nne

Soft Wheat (EU)

Barley (EU)

Maïs (EU)

Soja (CAF)

Hulls (EU)

Manioc (CAF)

C.G.F. (CAF)


5

Futures for Feed wheat EU (Euronext) (Nearby = 2010 & 2011)

80

110

140

170

200

| July2010

| Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan2011

| Feb | Mrch | Apr | May | June | July | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |

€u

ro/ T

on

n

01 Nearby

2011 Nov

2012 Jan

2012 May

2012 Nov


6

Futures for Maize EU (Euronext) (Nearby = 2010 - 2011)

110

130

150

170

190

210

230

| July2010


| Feb | Mch | Apr | May | Jun | July | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |

€/T

on

n

01 Nearby

2011 Aug

2011 Nov

2012 Mar

Delivery:


7

Futures for Soybeans in US$ct/ Bushel (nearby = 2010 & 2011)

850

1 000

1 150

1 300

1 450

| July2010


| Feb | Mch | Apr | May | Jun | July | Aug. | Sept. | Oct. | Nov. | Dec. |

01 Nearby

2011 Sep

2011 Nov

2012 Mar

2012 Jul

Delivery:


8

Price development of Compound feed for Broilers, a Broiler Cereal-Feedmix and Broiler price

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

| 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 |

Eu

ro/ T

(fe

ed

)

Eu

ro/ 1

00

kg

(B

roile

r)

margin broiler/ comp feed (2.7)Cereal-mixCompound feedBroilerAvg. Margin 2001 - 2010

NB: Jul - Aug. forecast Sept - Dec:. estimations


9

Experts EU production forecast 2012

3 000

5 500

8 000

10 500

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Th

ou

sa

nd

To

ns

Poultry Eggs for Consumption Total Eggs

Poultry: -0,8%Eggs Cons: +0,1%Eggs Hatch: +1,5%Eggs Total: +0,2%


10

Placings of Broiler chicks (1 000 pieces)compared to the monthly trend

(basis 2006 - 2009)

0

100 000

200 000

300 000

400 000

500 000

| 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 |


11

Production forecast of Broilers.In Tonn

400 000

550 000

700 000

| 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 |

0

50

100

150

200

250

Pric

e €

uro

/ 100kg


12

Experts production forecast of Poultry Meat: (2012 EU: - 0.8%)

0

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

UEBLBG CZ DK DE EE EL ES FR IE IT CY LV LT HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK

10

00

T

2009

2010

2011

2012DE: +4,0 FR:

+0.5

HU: +2,2

ES:+1.6

UK: -2,7%

IT: -0%


13

IMPORT

Compared

tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to Jan-août 10

Brazil 671 862 78.3% 679 469 76.3% 659 368 75.3% 581 391 72.4% 383 079 70.5% + 0%

Thailand 129 434 15.1% 146 882 16.5% 141 524 16.2% 149 682 18.6% 105 417 19.4% + 7%

Chile 16 923 2.0% 34 718 3.9% 39 022 4.5% 34 276 4.3% 28 366 5.2% + 27%

Argentina 25 855 3.0% 20 416 2.3% 20 576 2.3% 15 760 2.0% 10 156 1.9% - 4%

China 228 0.0% 15 0.0% 5 690 0.6% 9 997 1.2% 8 911 1.6% + 58%

Israel 9 079 1.1% 6 252 0.7% 5 470 0.6% 7 249 0.9% 4 184 0.8% - 11%

Croatia 1 772 0.2% 1 884 0.2% 2 295 0.3% 2 650 0.3% 1 782 0.3% + 3%

USA 240 0.0% 393 0.0% 386 0.0% 439 0.1% 59 0.0% - 86%

Uruguay 230 0.0% 109 0.0% 98 0.0% 2 0.0% 0 0.0% - 100%

EXTRA EU 25/27 858 010 891 087 875 886 803 120 543 226

% change + 4% - 2% - 8% + 2.9%

2007 2008 2009 Jan-août 112010

Import of Poultrymeat from selected origins


14

I mports of sel ected Poul t ry products

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

80 000

90 000

100 000

|J an06

2006 |J an07

2007 |J an08

2008 |J an09

2009 |J an10

2010 |J an11

2011 |J an12

in Tonnes cwe

FROZEN PREPARED SALTED OTHERS


15

I MPORTS of Poul t r y Meat i nt o EU ( Tonnes cwe)

444 577382 762 383 079

94 288

98 772 105 417

3 254

589 437

527 912 543 226

0

100 000

200 000

300 000

400 000

500 000

600 000

700 000

J an- août 09 J an- août 10 J an- août 11

Tonn

es

cw

Br azi l Thai l and I sr ael

Chi l e Ar gent i na Ot her dest i nat i ons

I MPORTS of Poul t r y Meat i nt o EU ( 1000 EUR)

756 167 761 161 811 500

378 361 389 009448 147

1 251 078 1 276 641

1 413 931

0

200 000

400 000

600 000

800 000

1 000 000

1 200 000

1 400 000

1 600 000


1000EUR

Br azi l Thai l and I sr ael

Chi l e Ar gent i na Ot her dest i nat i ons

EU Poultrymeat Import


16

EXPORT

Compared


Hong Kong 64 695 7.5% 58 669 6.0% 88 357 8.7% 151 529 12.0% 125 837 13.9% + 50%

Saudi Arabia 79 345 9.1% 95 132 9.7% 97 485 9.6% 118 010 9.3% 100 426 11.1% + 42%

Benin 64 408 7.4% 83 405 8.5% 84 885 8.4% 115 022 9.1% 79 972 8.9% + 9%

Russia 244 384 28.2% 230 113 23.4% 227 555 22.4% 245 429 19.4% 74 278 8.2% - 51%

Ukraine 28 412 3.3% 112 443 11.4% 89 314 8.8% 86 028 6.8% 48 148 5.3% - 8%

Ghana 29 324 3.4% 31 530 3.2% 28 689 2.8% 41 094 3.3% 44 286 4.9% + 71%

Yemen 26 795 3.1% 26 673 2.7% 36 331 3.6% 39 628 3.1% 23 591 2.6% - 16%

Sw itzerland 27 490 3.2% 28 201 2.9% 28 111 2.8% 29 804 2.4% 19 295 2.1% - 0%

Vietnam 16 144 1.9% 39 488 4.0% 39 971 3.9% 31 661 2.5% 18 802 2.1% - 26%

Congo (Dem. Rep.) 23 872 2.8% 21 386 2.2% 20 893 2.1% 27 748 2.2% 18 106 2.0% + 19%

U.A.Emirates 17 480 2.0% 25 858 2.6% 24 429 2.4% 20 231 1.6% 15 727 1.7% + 15%

Malaysia 26 300 3.0% 17 888 1.8% 22 676 2.2% 25 895 2.0% 11 523 1.3% - 25%

EXTRA EU 25/27 867 213 982 285 1 015 639 1 264 120 903 577

% change + 13% + 3% + 24% + 17.7%

2007 2008 2009 Jan-août 112010

Export of Poultrymeat to selected destinations


17

Expor t s of sel ect ed Poul t r y pr oduct s

0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

140 000

|J an06

2006 |J an07

2007 |J an08

2008 |J an09

2009 |J an10

2010 |J an11

2011 |J an12

i nTonnes

cwe

FROZEN PREPARED FRESH OTHERS


18

EU EXPORTS of Poul t r y Meat ( Tonnes cwe)

126 924 151 62574 278

66 227 70 925100 42648 148

51 68473 175

79 97246 267

84 056 125 837

280 651

335 647474 917

52 312

631 956

767 740

903 577

0

100 000

200 000

300 000

400 000

500 000

600 000

700 000

800 000

900 000

1 000 000


Tonn

es c

w

Russi a Saudi Ar abi a Ukr ai ne

Beni n Hong Kong Ot her dest i nat i ons

EU EXPORTS of Poul t r y Meat ( 1000 EUR)

99 357 161 503 88 26164 269

87 238151 700

46 91658 59579 330 95 36880 334 106 017

436 027

502 864

672 643

46 342

756 258

957 611

1 160 905

0

200 000

400 000

600 000

800 000

1 000 000

1 200 000

1 400 000


1000EUR

Russi a Saudi Ar abi a Ukr ai ne

Beni n Hong Kong Ot her dest i nat i ons

EU Poultrymeat Export


19

302 277 292 310

371

676

794

480

614 616

858891 876

803

543

1 017

1 101 1 1161 153

1 114

1 275

1 063 1 046997 997

867

9821 016

1 264

904

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 J an-août11

in 1000 Tonnes cwe

I MPORTS EXPORTS

EU Poultrymeat Trade Balance


20

Cumulated quantity of weekly requests

for Export licenses in the Poultrymeat sectorfor Gatt year 2011 - 2012.

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51w eek

ton

nes

Cumulated attributions

Average available


21

€uro Exchange rate 1 Euro = .....…US$ / BRZ Real/ 10 Rupee

1

3

5

7

I 2004 I 2005 I 2006 I 2007 I 2008 I 2009 I 2010 I 2011 I

source:http://europa.eu.int/comm/budget/inforeuro/fr/index.htm

BRZ RealUSA $India R


23

Weekly evolution of the Community price for Eggs

85

95

105

115

125

135

145

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52

€uro

/ 10

0kg

Avg 06 - 10 2008 2009 2010 2011


24

Percentual change of Egg prices September 2011

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

BE BG CZ DK DE EE EL ES FR IE IT CY LV LT HU MT NL ÖS PL PT RO SI SK SF SV UK EU

- 1 year- 1 month


25

Remainder between feedcost and Eggprice in Egg production

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 ja fe mr ap ma jn jl au se oc no de

Euro

/ 10

0kg

marge

feed

egg

Avg Margin


26

Placings of Laying chicks (1 000 pieces)compared to the monthly trend

(basis 2006 - 2009)

0

7 500

15 000

22 500

30 000

37 500

| 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 |


27

Production forecast ofeggs in shell (Mio p)

compared to the price development.

4 000

5 500

7 000

8 500

| 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 |

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Pric

e €

uro

/10

0k

g


28

Experts production forecast of Eggs for consumption EU 2012 = 6 464Th.t (+0,1%)

0

200

400

600

800

BE BG CZ DK DE EE EL ES FR IE IT CY LV LT HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK

10

00

T

2009 2010 2011 2012

DE +10,5%

IT -0,7%

FR +1,9%

UK +1.6%

HU -3,6%

ES -9,9%


29

Comparedtonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to Jan-août 10

Argentina 8 318 18.6% 6 164 27.0% 7 899 26.0% 7 888 25.2% 4 490 41.5% - 20%

USA 17 040 38.1% 4 245 18.6% 11 165 36.7% 13 439 42.9% 3 468 32.1% - 70%

India 12 012 26.9% 6 593 28.9% 5 776 19.0% 3 211 10.2% 1 040 9.6% - 58%

Israel 911 2.0% 646 2.8% 711 2.3% 941 3.0% 480 4.4% - 35%

Albania 2 077 4.6% 2 209 9.7% 1 659 5.5% 3 208 10.2% 327 3.0% - 87%

Mexico 1 762 3.9% 2 002 8.8% 1 893 6.2% 1 425 4.5% 193 1.8% - 84%

Canada 786 1.8% 1 0.0% 33 0.1% 2 0.0% 0 0.0%

Brazil 30 0.1% 64 0.3% 67 0.2% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%

EXTRA EU 25/27 44 732 22 850 30 409 31 356 10 807

% change - 49% + 33% + 3% - 58.1%

2007 2008 2009 J an-août 112010

EU Imports of Eggs:Trade Figures (Comext – tonnes egg equiv.)


30

EU Egg ImportsEU IMPORTS of EGGS (Tonnes eggs equiv)

5 849

11 471

3 468

6 297

5 642

4 490

4 747

2 470

1 040

2 273

3 708

1 483

19 913

25 788

10 807

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000


USA Ar gent i naI ndi a CanadaAl bani a Ot her dest i nat i ons

EU IMPORTS of EGGS (1000 EUR)

6 386

11 089

7 581

5 593

4 449

3 415

4 697

2 605

1 044

1 767

1 779

19 081

22 379

13 987

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000


USA Ar gent i naI ndi a CanadaAl bani a Ot her dest i nat i ons


31

EU- 27 I mpor t s of sel ect ed EGGS pr oduct s

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

|J an06

2006 |J an07

2007 |J an08

2008 |J an09

2009 |J an10

2010 |J an11

2011 |J an12

i n Tonnes egg equi v.

FRESH Al bumi n Not I n Shel l Yol k Hachi ng


32

Compared


J apan 51 045 31% 62 254 33% 47 238 31% 52 923 29% 45 046 31% + 31%

Switzerland 41 578 25% 44 229 24% 43 499 29% 45 107 25% 28 017 20% - 8%

Angola 3 185 2% 4 049 2% 4 019 3% 10 227 6% 13 187 9% + 157%

U.A.Emirates 4 812 3% 9 436 5% 2 664 2% 5 864 3% 5 283 4% + 65%

Taiwan 4 607 3% 4 624 2% 2 868 2% 7 145 4% 4 538 3% + 27%

Thailand 8 274 5% 6 190 3% 4 068 3% 6 180 3% 3 886 3% - 0%

Russia 7 076 4% 7 113 4% 4 360 3% 5 293 3% 2 889 2% + 15%

Ukraine 8 562 5% 7 250 4% 4 304 3% 5 693 3% 2 711 2% - 6%

South Korea 2 828 2% 1 859 1% 1 948 1% 2 495 1% 2 476 2% + 61%

Israel 4 639 3% 6 002 3% 3 398 2% 1 308 1% 1 962 1% +++

Norway 2 958 2% 1 805 1% 963 1% 570 0% 758 1% + 102%

Libya 25 0% 0 0% 40 0% 201 0% 0 0% - 100%

EXTRA EU 25/27 166 841 187 209 150 173 181 682 143 512

% change + 12% - 20% + 21% + 29.5%

2007 2008 2009 Jan-août 112010

EU Exports of Eggs:Trade Figures (Comext – tonnes egg equiv.)


33

EU EXPORTS of EGGS (Tonnes eggs equiv)

32 761 34 48045 046

28 468 30 51328 017

31 06437 230

59 56599 546

110 829

143 512

0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

140 000

160 000


J apan Swi t zer l and Russi a

Ukr ai ne U. A. Emi r at es Ot her dest i nat i ons

EU EXPORTS of EGGS (1000 EUR)

25 118 24 277 30 136

41 709 43 806 37 621

33 392 36 910

57 930

107 258113 126

135 501

0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

140 000

160 000


J apan Swi t zer l and Russi a

Ukr ai ne U. A. Emi r at es Ot her dest i nat i ons

EU Egg Exports


34

EU- 27 Expor t s of sel ect ed EGGS pr oduct s

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

|J an06

2006 |J an07

2007 |J an08

2008 |J an09

2009 |J an10

2010 |J an11

2011 |J an12

i n Tonnes egg equi v.

FRESH Al bumi n Not I n Shel l Yol k Hachi ng


35

1018

23 18 1727

16

30

69

25 3039

45

2330 31

11

144

164

186

209

231

201 205

191

142

198 198202

167

187

150

182

144

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 J an-août11

i n 1000 TonnesI MPORTS EXPORTS

EU Egg Trade Balance


36

Cumulated quantity of weekly requests

for Export licenses in the Egg sector

for Gatt year 2011 - 2012.

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53w eek

ton

nes

Average available

Cumulated attributions

EU market situation for eggs and poultry Management Committee 20 October 2011.

Documents

Transcript of EU market situation for eggs and poultry Management Committee 20 October 2011.