Eu Kyoto Prototcol Class Presentation Sumiko

IB 565

Culture and Doing Business in The European Union

Albert H. Callewaert

Keith R. Dickson

August 22, 20081

Introduction

Global Warming Awareness Exam

Kyoto Protocol History

EU’s Adoption Of The Kyoto Protocol

Progress Report 2006 Kyoto Protocol Implementation

Observations Of The Kyoto Protocol’s Impact On The EU’s Economy

Asia Pacific Partnership Plan

2

INTRODUCTION

3

International Agreement created to address the Alleged “Global Warming” issue

Sets binding targets for signatory countries and the European Union for reducing Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions

Carbon dioxide (CO2)Methane (CH4)Nitrous oxide (N2O)Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)Perfluorocarbons (PFCs)Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6)

Reduce CO2 Emissions on Average 6% below Signatory States’1990 levels

4Source: www.wikipedia.com

National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationAn overall increase in world temperatures which may be caused by additional heat being trapped by greenhouse gases

United States Geological ServiceAn increase of the earth's temperature by a few degrees resulting in an increase in the volume of water which contributes to sea level rise

The Encyclopedia of EarthThe combined result of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and changes in solar irradiance.

New South Wales Department of Primary Industries The expected consequence of an increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases by human activity.

5Source: http://www.google.com/search

6Source: www.logicalscience.com/climate_change/climate

“ There are lies…….

There are damn lies……

And then there are statistics”

7Source: http://www.cmgww.com/historic/twain/about/photos.htm

cum hoc ergo propter hoc (“with this, therefore because of this” )

ExampleA occurs in correlation with BTherefore, A causes B

a logical fallacy

“Correlation does not imply Causation”

Four Other PossibilitiesB may be the cause of ASome unknown third factor causes the relationship between A and BThe relationship is so complex, that it can be labeled “coincidental”B may be the cause of A at the same time that A is the cause of B (Contradiction)

ConclusionNo conclusion can be made regarding the existence or the direction of a cause and effect relationship without further investigation


Anthropogenic: Resulting from Human Activities

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Global Temperatures

Source: http://politicalhumor.about.com

Arctic Polar Ice Cap MeltingEndangered Polar Bears

Source: Sumiko Ishikawa 10

11www.globalwarmingheartland.org/

Question 1:“Global Warming” is a real phenomenon. Earth’s temperature is

increasingTrueFalse

118,000 yrs ago much of North America, Europe, and Asia was covered with ice

18,000 yrs ago warming of the Earth began

15,000 yrs ago advance of glaciers ceased, sea levels rose

8,000 yrs ago Bearing Strait land bridge under water

Since the end of Ice Age Earth’s average temperature has risen 16 degrees F and sea levels has risen 300 feet

118 kya 18 kya 20088 kya12

Question 2:The “Greenhouse Effect” is real.

TrueFalse

Direct Sunlight

Radiant Energy Greenhouse

Effect

13

Question 3:The main cause of Global Warming is:

Pollution from factories and automobilesOrbital eccentricities of the Earth and variations in the Sun’s output.The Greenhouse Effect

Major Causes of Global Temperature Shifts

Astronomical Causes

Solar Variability (Sunspots): 11 year and 206 year cycles.

Precession of the Equinoxes: 23,000 year cycle.

Variation of Tilt of Earth’s Axis: 41,000 year cycle

Eccentricity of Earth’s Elliptical Orbit: 100,000 year cycle

14

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Sunspots and Solar Flares

Variation in Tilt of Earth’s Axis Eccentricity of Earth’s Elliptical Orbit

Precession of the Equinoxes

Question 4:The Greenhouse Effect is caused primarily by:

Water Vapor & Cloud DropletsCarbon DioxideOzone-Destroying aerosol sprays

66% to 85% of the Greenhouse Effect is the result of Water Vapor & Cloud Droplets

Greenhouse Effect is limited primarily to increasing nighttime temperatures

The World’s natural wetlands produce more Greenhouse Gas Contributions annually than all human sources combined

`

Major Greenhouse

Gas

% of Greenhouse

Effect

Water vapor 36% to 66%

Water vapor & Cloud droplets

66% to 85%

Carbon dioxide 9% to 26%

Methane 4% to 9%

Ozone 3% to 7%

www.windows.ucar.edu 16

Question 5:Which most accurately describes the effects of Global Warming in the

United States over the past 100 years?a) Temperature rise of > 5 degrees Cb) Temperature rise of >2 degrees Cc) Temperature rise of <1 degrees C

Two cycles:

1900 – 1940: warming

1940 – 1980: cooling

1980 – present: warming

17

Question 6:Carbon Dioxide (CO2) levels in the atmosphere today are at record high levels.

a) Truec) False

CO2 is a small component of the Earth’s atmosphere currently at 380 parts per million (0.038%)

Compared to former geological times, the Earth is CO2 impoverished

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Late Carboniferous to Early Permian Periods• Both atmospheric CO2 and temperatures were as low as they

are today known as the Quaternary Period

19

Question 7:Carbon Dioxide from coal-fired power plants damages forests.

TrueFalse

CO2 principal gas required for trees and plants to survive

Primitive forests debuted 375 million years ago

Beginning of Carboniferous Period

(CO2 concentrations ~ 2500 ppm)

As CO2 concentrations declined to 350 ppm so did plant growth

Photosynthesis

OXYGEN (O2)

CARBON DIOXIDE

(CO2)20

Question 8: Which answer below provides the best explanation for the following

temperature record?a) Industrial pollution from factories, power plants, & cars caused global warmingb) Natural variations in global temperatures may occur in roughly 500 year cyclesc) Global cooling occurred as a result of the Renaissance Period

Primary Cause of Variations in Global Temperatures:

Cycles of the sun

Earth’s orbit about the sun

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Question 9: Which of the following is Not True about an increasing greenhouse

effect?a) The consensus of scientists is that the problem warrants drastic action.b) Night temperatures may increase, but daytime temperatures will not.c) The coldest, driest regions of the planet will warm first.

1989 “The Union of Concerned Scientists” circulated a petition

Urged recognition of global warming as potentially a great danger to mankind.

Signed by 700 scientists

Four of the signers had involvement in climatology. (Richard S. Lindzen, MIT)

President Clinton and Al Gore cite a letter

Signed by 2600 scientists

Global warming will have catastrophic effects on humanity

Less than 10% involved with climatology (Citizens of a Sound Economy)22

Question 10: Which temperature measuring method most accurately measures global warming?

a) Ground based thermometers.b) Orbiting weather satellites.c) Weather balloons.

Global Warming effects result from temperature increases in the Middle Troposphere (10 kilometers altitude)

Mid Troposhere should warm faster than the Earth’s surface

During the past 100 years

Earth’s surface temperatures increased by 0.6 degrees C

During the Period 2002 – 2007:

Mid Troposhere temperature has decreased slightly

Earth’s surface temperatures have stopped warming

CO2 concentrations have increased www.visitandlearn.co.uk 23

10 Correct: Excellent, You know your facts

9 Correct: Good, You are an independent thinker

8 Correct: Fair, You are on your way.

7 or Less Correct: Check out globalwarmingheartland.org to learn the facts about Global Warming

Global Warming is occurring, but IT IS NOT A CRISIS

Exam Source: www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/GlobWarmTest/start.html 24

Kyoto Protocol History

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The US Supreme Court has ruled that carbon dioxide (CO2) is a pollutant and that the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has the right to regulate CO2 emissions from new cars.Source: http://www.dieselnet.com

CO2

Al Gore’s Carbon Footprint

Estate in Belle Meade area of Nashville, Tennessee

20 rooms 8 bathrooms

Average American Household Annual Electricity Consumption: 10,656 kWh

Al Gore Belle Meade Estate Annual Electricity Consumption (2006): 221,000 kWh

Source: Business Week: Bruce Nussbaum. February 26, 2007 26

United States Kazakhstan

27Source: www.ciaworldfactbook.com

Source: www.wikipedia.com

Scientific Body established 1988 to evaluate the RISK of CLIMATE CHANGE

Created the United Nations

Issued first assessment report in 1990 400 scientistsIncreasing levels of atmospheric CO2

Advised “Global Warming” is real & something should be done about it!

Led to creation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

Current RoleDoes not conduct its own scientific inquiries Reviews worldwide researchCompiles special reports and technical papers

2007 shared Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore

Source: unfcc.int/kyoto_protocol 28

International Environmental Treaty Produced at the United Nations Conference onEnvironment and Development (UNCED) Rio de Janeiro June 3 – 14, 1992

Objective Achieve stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations at a low enough level to prevent anthropogenic interference with the climate system.

Legal AuthorityLegally non binding

Establishment of Mandatory Greenhouse Gases LimitsNone

Entered Into ForceMarch 21, 1994

Provision For Future Updates (Protocols)Establish mandatory emissions limits


Protocol to UNFCCCAdopted December 11, 1997Establishes binding targets for GHG emissions for Industrialized

Countries plus the EU

Entered Into ForceFebruary 16, 2005

Emissions Targets ComplianceOn Average – Reduction of 5% Below 1990 Baseline During Phase 2 (2008 – 2012 )Country Governments Devolve Reductions to Individual IndustriesPrimarily via National MeansFlexibility Mechanisms

Emissions Trading (ETS) – Market BasedClean Development Mechanisms (CDM) – Project BasedJoint Implementation Projects (JI) – Project Based


European Union Adoption Of

The Kyoto Protocol

31

Annex IDeveloped Countries

Australia, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Monaco, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russian Federation, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, United States of America

Annex IIDeveloped Countries that pay costs to Developing Countries for Emission Reduction ProjectsAustralia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, United States of America

Developing CountriesNo emissions obligation other than monitoring and reporting (Brazil, China, India)

Cannot sell emission credits to Developed Countries

Receive funding and technologies from Annex II countries, promote rapid growth

Can volunteer to become Annex I countries when sufficiently developed

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EU Member States

Source: unfcc.int/kyoto_protocol

European Union Climate Change Programme

Assemble experts from member states to develop EU Policies and advise the European Council

Assist in implementation of the Kyoto Protocol across the EU

Kyoto Protocol Emission Reduction Targets: 8% below 1990 Levels EU 15 states by 2012

33Source: ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/eccp.htm

Market Based Mechanism

Applies to Countries withTargets for Emissions Limitations & Reductions

Objective Short Term: Encourage heavy emitting industries to reduce emissions from current technologies Long Term: Encourage investment in lower to zero emissions technologies

Targets expressed as Levels of Allowed Emissions Divided into Assigned Amounts Units (AAU = 1 Tonne CO2)

Countries with excess capacity can sell this capacity to countries that will exceed their limits

Carbon Market: CO2 bought and sold just like any other commodity


Largest Multi-Country Multi-Sector Emissions Trading Scheme

Covers more than 12,000 installations collectively responsible for 50% CO2 emissions

Entered into force October 25, 2003

Trading PeriodsFirst: October 25, 2005 through December 31, 2007Second: January 1, 2008 through December 31, 2012Third: January 1, 2013 through December 31, 2020

Source: PEW Center On Global Climate Change 35

36

Source: http://web.mit.edu/mitei/research/spotlights/europe-carbon.html

Source: www.co2prices.com

Project Based Mechanism

Applies to Annex I CountriesEmission Reduction and Limitation Commitments

Initiate An Emission Reduction Project In Developing Countries

eg. Rural Electrification Project Using Solar PanelsHigh Energy Efficient Boilers

Earns Saleable Certified Emission Reduction Credits (CER)(1) CER = (1) Tonne of CO2

Overseen by the CDM Executive BoardAnswerable to the Countries that Ratified the Kyoto Protocol


Market Based Mechanism

Applies to Annex I CountriesEmission Reduction CommitmentEmission Limitation Commitment

Initiate An Emission Reduction or Emission Removal Project In Another Annex I Country

Must provide reduction in emissions removal by sourcesOr must provide an enhancement of removals by sinks

Earns Saleable Emission Reduction Units (ERU)(1) ERU = (1) Tonne of CO2


India - 459 projects - 278 Mt CO2Brazil - 190 projects - 148 Mt CO2China - 177 projects - 519 Mt CO2Mexico - 132 projects - 57 Mt CO2Other countries – 316 projects

More than half of all CDM projects (52%) relate to renewable energy (geothermal, tidal, wind, hydro, biomass or solar)

15 fluorinated greenhouse gas projects (8 in China, 4 in India, 1 in

Mexico) account for almost one-third of expected emissions reductions

Expected market for JI and CDM in the EU ETS of up to 1.3 billiontonnes during 2008-12

39Source: Jos Delbeke Carbon Expo Cologne, 3 May 2007

40Source: unfcc.int/kyoto_protocol

European Commission Proposal (January 23, 2008)

Develop EU Wide Polices

Objective: Implement the Energy and Climate decisions made by the European Council (March 2007) across all EU-27 member states

Commitment - Reduce GHG emissions 20% below 1990 levels by 2020

Agreement – Reduce GHG emissions 30% below 1990 levels by 2020Providing other Developed Countries make similar agreements

Providing Economically Advanced Developing Countries contribute according to ability

Mandatory Target - Renewable Energy 20% of the EU’s Energy Mix including a minimum 10% Biofuels by 2020

Review by European Parliament and European Council (Goal: Final Adoption by 2009)


Expansion of EU ETS

New EU-Wide Rules to Harmonize Allocation of Emission Allowances across Member States

Emission Reduction Targets at the Member State Level for Sectors not Covered by the EU ETS: (Buildings, Transport, and Waste)

Legally Enforceable Renewable Energy Targets for Member States

New Rules on Carbon Capture and Storage and Environmental Subsidies


Current (Phases 1 & 2)

Allocated by Individual Member States as Specified in Their National Allocation Plans (NAP)

Certain Facilities Within a Given Sector Faced Significantly Different Allocations Across Member States

Proposed (Phase 3)

Allocations Determined at EU Commission Level

Allocation Prices - Auctions Free Allocations Based on Harmonization Across Member States


Current (Phases 1 & 2)

No Regulations

Proposed (Phase 3)

Geologically Stored CO2 Emissions – No Allowances Need To Be SurrenderedCCS CO2 Will Not Receive Free AllocationsLegislative Framework To Be Developed To Provide Certainty To Industry And Remove barriers to DeploymentSource: newsimg.bbc.co.uk


Progress Report 2006 Kyoto Protocol EU Implementation

45

46Source: Dr. Margo Thorning, Managing Director ICCF at the US House of Representatives July 11, 2007

47

European Union Member States Greenhouse Gas Emissions In CO2 Compared To Kyoto Protocol Targets

Source: European Commission, based on European Environment Agency information

48

Source: Dr. Margo Thorning, Managing Director ICCF at the US House of Representatives July 11, 2007

OBSERVATIONS OF THE KYOTO PROTOCOL’S IMPACT ON THE

EUROPEAN UNION’S ECONOMY

49

“We only understand 10 percent of the climate issue. That is not enough to wreck the world economy with Kyoto-like measures”

Taken from: “Issues in The Current State of Climate Science” (March, 2006), The Center for Science and Public policy. Washington, DC

--Henk Tennekes, former research director, Dutch Royal Meteorological Institute

50Source: www.heartland.org

“We understand public anxiety about climate change, but are concerned that many of these much publicized predictions are ill informed and misleading.

Taken from: “Issues in The Current State of Climate Science” (March, 2006), The Center for Science and Public policy. Washington, DC

Paul Reiter: Professor of Medical Entomology at the Pasteur Institute in Paris, France Member of the World Health Organization Expert Advisory Committee on Vector Biology and ControlFormer employee of the Center for Disease Control (Dengue Branch) for 22 yearsSpecialist in mosquito-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue feverFormer member of IPCC

51Source: www.heartland.org

September 2001Tony Blair: Pledged UK support for Kyoto Protocol, warning that action was essential to avoid “catastrophic consequences"

June 2007 Tony Blair: Promised to work for a newinternational framework agreement to succeed the Kyoto Protocol at expiration in 2012

The new agreement has to include China, India and the United States"We need a technological revolution comparable to the internet” (In line with US Bush Administration Position)

The UK Industry Lobby CBI: “Industry cannot keep shouldering the burden. Of all reductions in emissions achieved in the UK since 1990, business has been responsible for delivering 80 per cent of them"

52

Source: www.number10.gov.uk

Source: http://www.cbi.org.uk

Open Europe - London based eurosceptic think-tank set up by the UK business community to 'campaign for reform‘

in the European Union, Not Withdrawl

Max Andersson (August 2007) Green Party Member of the Swedish Parliament Foreward to Open Europe Report: “Europe’s Dirty Little

Secret: Why The EU Emissions Trading Scheme Isn’t Working

“ The ETS has been an embarrassing failure in the first phase of operation”

“6% more permits to pollute have been printed than there is pollution”

“The price of carbon has collapsed to almost “Zero”, creating no incentive to reduce pollution”

“Emissions from installations covered by the ETS actually rose by 0.8% during Phase 1”

53Source: www.openeurope.org.uk

Leader of Italian Liberal ReformersMember Italian ParliamentFormer Member European Parliament

October 2007“Global warming is not an emergency. Climate change is normal”

“The European Union chose the “struggle” against global warming as a way to characterize itself on the international arena”

“According to International Council for Capital Formation (ICCF), Kyoto would negatively impact future EU GDP and employment”

“We agree with Open Europe that things have gone backwards for the ETS”

“ In the second phase of the ETS member states will be able to “import” external Kyoto “credits” from developing countries in order to meet their targets, which are highly flawed, and often fraudulent”

54Source: www.globalwarming.org

“The ETS won’t reduce emissions in Europe, and won’t encourage companies to invest in innovative technologies”

“By purchasing carbon credits, the price of energy will increase. Tax-payers and consumers would pay the costs, and the Italian GDP will decrease.

“In its first phase of operation, more permits to pollute were printed than actual pollution. The price of carbon has collapsed from 33€ to 0.20€ per tonne, creating no incentive to reduce emissions”

“Some countries (such as the UK) set tough quotas on emissions, and others set lax targets, creating a wealth transfer mechanism, subsidizing emitters in states which were making little effort by taxing states with more stringent allocations”

“The ETS has established a web of politically powerful interest groups, massive economic distortions and hidden industrial subsidies”


“According to the IPCC, to have an impact on global warming, anthropogenic emissions should be cut by 60-80% compared to 1990 level. If all the countries joining Kyoto reach their target, global emissions will decrease by less than 3%”

“President Bush is to begin setting a new worldwide goal for cutting CO2 emissions after 2012 and to help developing nations pay for the changes that would be needed.”

“Weaknesses in Mandatory Emission - Reduction Obligations – are apparent. Development of new technologies and other voluntary measures are the preferred means. Western countries should not participate in any talks toward a global agreement that do not include polluters from China, India, Brazil and the developing world”


European Think TankBrussels, BelgiumFocus on Public Policies To Promote Saving and Investment in the Private SectorNovember 2005 Report on “The Cost of the Kyoto Protocol”

United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, SpainOverview1. Cost of Emissions Allowances: passed on to consumers in higher energy prices and

higher prices for goods and services

Electricity and Gas Prices

2010: Kyoto Target 2020: 60% below 2000 levels by 2050

57

2010 2020 2010 2020

Italy 13% 14% 44% 54%

UK 35% 34% 46% 57%

Spain 23% 27% 42% 51%

Germany 31% 32% 30% 39%

Average 26% 27% 41% 50%

Electricity Natural Gas

Source: www.iccfglobal.org

2. Output and Employment Losses

3. Consumption and Residential Fixed Investment (GDP) due to loss of disposable income

4. The economy’s production rate will decline due to reduction in energy use

5. Labor Productivity decline due to less efficient factors ofproduction

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-4

-3.5

-3

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0Germany UK Spain Italy Germany UK Spain Italy

Rea

l G

DP -

% D

iffer

ence

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asel

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Kyoto Target 60% Below 2000 Levels by 2050

2010 2020

Source: www.iccfglobal.org

Impact on Energy Consumption

Domestic SectorConsumers will cut energy consumption due to drastically higher prices

Short term: Reduce energy consumptionLong term: Replace inefficient appliances with more efficient appliances

Industry SectorReduce energy consumption through process changesReplace energy-consuming capital with more efficient capitalProduction of energy intensive goods would move to non-participating countries

59Source: www.iccfglobal.org

Impact on Energy Consumption

Power SectorThe cost of carbon permits would lead to large increases in the delivered price of electricity Coal use would decline as with higher prices, encouraging the substitution of natural gas and renewablesNatural gas fired power generation would struggle to keep electricity prices down

Transportation SectorDemand for coal would be hardest hit with its highest carbon contentDemand for petroleum would decline slightly due to limited substitution optionsNatural gas would increase but in time decline as CO2 limitations targets tightenDemand for renewables would increase

60Source: www.iccfglobal.org

61

International Non-Treaty AgreementParticipants: Australia, Canada, India, Japan, the People's Republic of China, South Korea, and the United States

Announced July 28, 2005 at an Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) Regional Forum Meeting

Launched January 12, 2006

Member countries account for more than 50% of the world’sGHG emissions

Energy consumption

GDP

PopulationMember counties’ set individual goals for GHG emission reductionsNo mandatory enforcement mechanism

AustraliaAustralia ChinaChina IndiaIndia JapanJapan

Republic Republic of Koreaof Korea USAUSA

(2007)(2007)

CanadaCanada

Source: www.wikipedia.com

Mission StatementAccelerate the development and deployment of clean energy technologiesVoluntarily participate to advance clean development and climate objectivesEnhance cooperation to meet both increased energy needs, air pollution, energy security, and greenhouse gas intensitiesComplement but not replace the Kyoto Protocol

Task Forces Aluminum Buildings and Appliances Cement Cleaner Fossil Energy Coal Mining Power Generation and Transmission Renewable Energy and Distributed Generation Steel

62Source: sdp.gov

CriticismUS President George W. Bush: “a new results-oriented partnership …..allows our

nations to develop and accelerate deployment of cleaner, more efficient energy technologies to meet national pollution reduction, energy security and climate change concerns in ways that reduce poverty and promote economic development.“

Australian Prime Minister John Howard: “this pact is fair and effective”

Worldwide Fund for Nature: "a deal on climate change that doesn't limit pollution is the same as a peace plan that allows guns to be fired“

Coalition Of National Environment Groups (AP6 countries): Challenged their governments to make the AP6 meaningful by agreeing to mandatory targets, creating financial mechanisms with incentives, and to create an action plan to overcome the key barriers to technology transfer.

U.S. Senator John McCain: “the partnership amounted to nothing more than a nice little public relations ploy“

The Economist: “the partnership is a "patent fig-leaf for the refusal of America and Australia to ratify Kyoto"


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Eu Kyoto Prototcol Class Presentation Sumiko

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