THE EU & THE MIGRANT CRISIS

Anastasiia PotsiluikoSamah Filali AlaouiThanh Ha Nguyen

OUTLINE

Background

The situation

Impacts

EU Reactions

Suggestions

BACKGROUND

GLOBAL REFUGEE CRISIS

- the number of forcibly displaced people

worldwide

Millionrefugees

Millionasylum-seekers

Million Syrian refugees in 2014 - the largest

refugee group

Million Afghan refugees were the largest refugee

group for 3 decades

THE REALITY

The phrases "European migrant crisis" and "European refugee crisis" became widely used in April 2015, when five boats carrying almost

2,000 migrants to Europe sank in the Mediterranean Sea, with a combined death toll estimated at more than 1,200 people.

MIGRANT & REFUGEES DEFINITIONS

An asylum seeker is defined as a person fleeing persecution or conflict, and therefore seeking international protection under the 1951 Refugee Convention on the Status of Refugees

A refugee is an asylum seeker whose claim has been approved

The UN considers migrants fleeing war or persecution to be refugees, even before they officially receive asylum

A mixed-migration phenomenon

COMMON EUROPEAN ASYLUM SYSTEM

Asylum seekers apply through Asylum

Procedures

Asylum applicants receive material

reception conditions

Applicant’s fingerprints are

taken and sent to a Eurodac

Interviewed by a caseworker to determine

whether he/she may qualify for refugee status or subsidiary protection

If asylum is not granted to the applicant at first

instance, this refusal may be appealed in

court

If the court confirm this decision, the applicant

may be returned to his/her country of origin

or transit

If refugee status is granted, people can access to a

residence permit

Overturning of the negative first instance decision

by the court

DUBLIN REGULATIONS

Asylum seekers must remain in the first European country they enter and that country is solely responsible for examining migrants' asylum applications

Migrants who travel to other EU states face deportation back to the EU country they originally entered

Reformation of the Dublin Regulation

THE SITUATION

THE SITUATION

How many migrants are going to the EU?

Where do they come from?

How do they get to the EU?

What are their destinations?

HOW MANY MIGRANTS ARE GOING TO EUROPE

people have been reaching Europe by sea since the

start of 2016

people reached Europe by sea and land in 2015

HOW MANY MIGRANTS ARE GOING TO EUROPE

new asylum applications in Germany in 2015

people claimed asylum in 2015

applications in 2015 in Hungary

applications in 2015 in Sweden

HOW MANY MIGRANTS ARE GOING TO EUROPE

Asylum applications per 100,000 local population in 2015

SWEDEN: more than 1,575 refugees/100,000 residentsHUNGARY: 1,508 refugees/100,000 residentsGERMANY: 520 refugees/100,000 residentsUK: 42 refugees/100,000 residents

WHERE DO THE MIGRANTS COME FROM

56% adult men17%

women

27% children

HOW DO THEY GET TO THE EU

WHAT ARE THEIR DESTINATIONS

IMPACTS

ECONOMIC IMPACTS

Migrants lead to increases in social sector spending: Host countries must house and educate refugees until they become productive members of the local economy

€8,000per applicationfor first year

Refugees increase aggregate demand: New migrants represent potential markets for new services leading to: In real income and GDP for their host countries as native workers and professional migrate to new forms and types of work

Europe Economyin 2016 - 2017

ECONOMIC IMPACTS

Migrants alter the local labour market: Skilled refugees may compete with local workers for jobs, which may result in a temporary increase in unemployment numbers

By the end of 2016

EEA labour force

Germany labour force

The labour market of host countries may become flexible with migrant workers taking jobs that locals shun

Asylum seekers can only enter the labor force if they gain refugees status (from 3 months – a few years)

ECONOMIC IMPACTS

The influx from Cuba into the U.S. in the 1960s - Combination of highly skilled & low skilled migrants was a good source for growth

Sweden lets in 25 times as many immigrants as the U.S does—and economy is in excellent shape

In both optimistic & pessimistic scenarios there is a positive increase in projected income of Germany in the long run

POLITICAL IMPACTS

Disintegration of the travel-free Schengen Agreement• Several EU members temporarily re-established

border checks in an effort to contain the influx of asylum seekers

• The establishment of internal border controls is exactly the opposite of the Schengen Area’s raison d’être. Creating tension between the member states and affecting Trade as it delays the movement of goods

POLITICAL IMPACTS

The German power/ EU division: by responding to the refugee crisis independently, Germany has shown the way to purely national responses by others This can turn into a downward spiral: an integrated EU

response is made more difficult as a result of go-it-alone policies

The resulting absence of a convincing EU response will lead Germany and others to further act on their own initiative, thus fuelling souverainiste forces overall

The systematic practice of souverainisme by each member state is not conducive to the emergence of the EU as a single strategic actor

POLITICAL IMPACTS

Advantage for the UK exit debate: the migration crisis strengthens the UK's negotiating and increase the risk of positive vote for the Brexit

Turkey holding the key power and this could be in its favour: Turkey has the ability to promt further emigration towards the EU, which gives Turkey negotiation power

Changes in the European priorities in the Middle East: avoiding large scale of refugee flows; eliminating ISIS; providing the non-jihadi component of the Syrian rebellion with the ability to resist Russian and Iranian operations in support of Assad, while seeking his removal by political means

SOCIAL IMPACTS

Reduction in the social welfare budget/ benefits: Asylum seekers only have the ability to earn money by way of social welfare, therefore it could reduce the basic state services to citizens of the host countries

Idleness and porverty within a refugee camp may cause an excalation of security and social problems such as crimes, prostitution and alcoholismDifferent ethnicity, failures in communication and understanding caused by language and culture can form serious barriers with the local population and create conflicts.

EUREACTIONS

SAVING LIVES & SECURING

TRIPLED the budget for Frontex to reinforce its joint operations Triton and Poseidon in order to save lives

EU ACTION PLAN against migrant smuggling (2015 – 2020)

EU NAVAL OPERATION against human smugglers and traffickers - EUNAVFOR Med

lives have been rescued in the Central Mediterranean

since June 2015

arriving during the month of August 2015, the same

as 2014

RELOCATION & ASSISTANCEMade a commitment to

relocate 160,000 people from Greece, Italy and the most affected members

HOTSPOT APPROACH in Italy and Greece to identify, register and fingerprint migrants & refugees

people have been relocated until 13 January 2016

Till the end of 2015, only 1/5

hotspot in Greece (Lesvos) & 2/6 hotspots in Italy (Lampedusa and Trapani) are operational

€1.3 millionTo cover new staff for

2015

€700 millionEmergency Funding (2015: €100 million

2016: €600 million)

SUPPORT THIRD COUNTRIESMade a commitment to RESETTLING 22,504 displaced persons till the end of 2017

had been effectively resettled until 13 January 2016

EU Budget Member State

050

100150200250300350400450500

Extra support of

€500m €442.74mShortfall€57.26m

Funds for Humanitarian Aid

EU Budget Member State

050

100150200250300350400450500

Extra support of

€500m €434.48m

Shortfall€465.52m

EU Trust Fund for the Syrian crisis

EU Budget Member State

050

100150200250300350400450500

Initial Capital Contribution

€1800m €81.27m

Shortfall€1718.73m

Emergency Trust Fund for Africa

COOPERATING WITH THIRD COUNTRIES

Meeting on the Western Balkans Migration Route

Providing temporary shelter, food, healthcare, water and sanitation

Managing the migration flows together by sharing information about flows and avoiding taking unilateral decisions

Strengthening border management by bilateral border-related confidence-building measures

COOPERATING WITH THIRD COUNTRIES

EU – Turkey Action Plan

Offer temporary protection to Syrian refugees

Strengthen cooperation with the EU & implement a series of repressive measures against irregular migration

Mobilize funds in the most flexible and rapid way

Consider the visa liberalisation dialogue with Turkey

FURTHER REGULATION PROPOSALS

Establish a European Border and Coast Guard – reinforcing the mandate of Frontex

Legal migration package including revision of Blue Card

A long-term, EU-wide system of resettlement and relocation

A credible and effective return policy

SUGGESTIONS

SUGGESTIONS

Reinforce the resettlement and relocation systems

Considering private sponsorship

Improve the living conditions at refugee centers in Turkey and Europe

Create new system that allows asylum-seekers to register requests from their home countries or states adjoining the EU

Open legal channels for economic migrants seeking work in the EU, both high and low qualified employees

THANK YOU