ET2050 Application of the Three Horizon Model Carlo Sessa – ISIS – [email protected] ET2050...
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Transcript of ET2050 Application of the Three Horizon Model Carlo Sessa – ISIS – [email protected] ET2050...
ET2050Application of the Three Horizon Model
Carlo Sessa – ISIS – [email protected]
ET2050 Project Group MeetingBarcelona, 25-27 September 2013
Source of the “Three-Horizons Model”
Schematic of the futures-oriented Three Horizons model (source Curry & Hodgson, 2008)
STRATEGIC FIT TOCOMPETITIVENESSCOHESIONSUSTAINABILITY
20502020 2030
ET2050 Scenarios
ET2050Territorial
Vision(1° draft)
Application of Three-Horizons Model in ET2050
First Horizon: Today fossil-fuel based system passing away
Third Horizon: Tomorrow low carbon system coming in
Second Horizon: Mid-term choices bringing Europe towards the first or the third horizon
What does “horizons” mean in this model?
ENERGY TRANSITION EXAMPLE:
A more detailed description of the horizons(example related to the energy transition)
The triangle of choice (source Curry & Hodgson, 2008)
The midterm is the time window for choices to be made(2° Horizon)
A more detailed description of midterm choices(example related to the energy transition)
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STRATEGIC FIT TOCOMPETITIVENESSCOHESIONSUSTAINABILITY
20502020 2030
ET2050 Scenarios
ET2050Territorial
Vision(1° draft)
TERRITORIAL VISION(2° draft)
Midterm targets & pathways
Midterm targets & pathways
What we want
How we can achieve
Delivering the second draft of the ET2050 Territorial Vision & midterm targets and pathways