Estimating Demand for Aflatoxin Risk Reducing Strategies in Kenya

Marites Tiongco, IFPRI on behalf of the team

International Food Policy Research Institute International Center for the Improvement of Maize

and Wheat International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences

University of Pittsburgh ACDI/VOCA/Kenya Maize Development Program Kenya Agricultural Research Institute Institut d’Economie Rurale

Agricultural (preharvest, postharvest)

Conventional breeding

Transgenic breeding

Irrigation

Biocontrol

“Good agronomic practices” (sorting and segregation)

Improved drying, storage, transportation

Chemical control (fungicides)

Dietary

Enterosorption (clays, chlorophyllin)

Chemoprevention (Oltipraz, triterpenoids, isothiocyanates)

Anti-inflammatory agents (NSAIDS, green tea polyphenols, allicin)

Clinical

Hepa-B vaccine

Source: Wu & Khlangwiset , 2010

Knowledge about health effects of

consuming aflatoxin

contaminated

food

Attitude towards aflatoxin

contamination

Individual and Household

characteristics (age, education, gender,

income, etc.)

Willingness to pay

Perceptions of health risks due to aflatoxin

contamination

Characteristics of risk mitigation techonologies

Demand to adopt control measures

Market Information (e.g., prices)

Knowledge about health effects of

consuming aflatoxin

contaminated

food

Attitude towards aflatoxin

contamination Individual and

Household characteristics (age, education, gender,

income, etc.)

Willingness to pay

Perceptions of health risks due

to aflatoxin contamination

Characteristics of risk mitigation techonologies

Demand to adopt control measures

Is WTP greater for technologies that are more cost effective in reducing risk aflatoxin contamination?

Are farmer’s demand for risk reducing technologies influenced by their educational attainment, experience on high levels of aflatoxin, health cost, or by their income and wealth?

Objective: To measure producers’ WTP for methods to reduce alfatoxins in their maize; and to demonstrate how our findings can be used to analyze policy interventions

Data collection procedures

Technologies that reduces risk of aflatoxin contamination

Improved seeds less prone to aflatoxin

Drying maize off the ground using tarpaulin (introduced)

Plastic silos (not yet used for storing grains)

Metal silos (introduced to few farmers)

Bio controls (introduced to few farmers)

Aflatoxins are poisonous byproducts of fungi or moulds commonly found in the soil. These moulds also grow on the maize plant and later, when the grain has been stored, they continue to grow.

These moulds particularly infest plants that are stressed from drought or pest attacks. The mould grows especially well in poor storage conditions, producing high levels of Aflatoxin.

Severe aflatoxicosis (the illness caused by Aflatoxins) led to sickness in 317 people in Kenya in 2004, and resulted in 125 deaths from liver failure.

Chronic, lower‐level exposures to aflatoxins can lead to liver cancer, particularly in people who constantly suffer from hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection.

Aflatoxin exposure has also been linked to disorders of the immune system, stunted growth in children, and abortion in livestock.

Eliminate losses of grain due to mold more grain of better quality to eat or sell;

Prevent family from exposure to risk of aflatoxin poisoning

Description of technology 2: The metal silo is an improved maize storage container made of metal sheets by trained local artisans. After the maize is put inside the metal silo, it is closed and sealed. No fresh air can get inside. So after the oxygen is used up, storage insects like weevil and LGB die. Maize stored in metal silos is not attacked by pests and is less infested by moulds. Aflatoxin levels would therefore be reduced by 60% on average compared to the conventional storage in standard bags. A metal silo that can contain up to 2.5 bags of maize grain at one time and lasts more than 10 years.

Description of technology 3: Tarpaulins are often used for sun drying of maize on cobs or grain and effectively avoid contamination of maize with dirt or other pollutants. They prevent maize from coming into contact with soil, where the fungi that produce Aflatoxins come from. Using tarpaulin for sun drying may reduce Aflatoxin contamination of maize cobs or grain by 50% on average compared to drying on the ground.

Description of technology 5: Some fungi produce Aflatoxin, but others do not. Scientists have found that by using biocontrols we can increase the growth of the fungus that doesn’t produce poison in order to prevent the poisonous fungus from growing. This kind of control – spreading “good” fungus to stop the “bad” fungus, is called biocontrol. It takes about 4 hours to apply biocontrols to 2.5 acres of land. They estimate that this can reduce Aflatoxin contamination by 60% on average which will last for 2 years on average

Initial price Premium Price Discount Price

25% 50% 75% 100% -75% -50% 25% -10%

Improved seed (Ksh/2kg) 240 300 360 420 480 60 120 180 215

Metal silo (Ksh/2.5 bags--90kg/bag) 6500 8000 9800 1100 1300 1600 3200 5000 5800

Drying on tarpaulin (Ksh/4x4m for 8bags 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 500 1000 1500 1800

Plastic silo (Ksh/2.5bags--90kg/bag) 2800 3500 4200 4900 5600 700 1400 2100 2500

Biocontrol (Ksh/2.5acre of biocontrol application 1000 1300 1500 1800 2000 300 500 800 900

Decreasing demand as price increases

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

60 120 180 215 240 300 360 420 480

Pe

rce

nt

of

Re

spo

nd

en

ts

Discount or Premium Price Ksh/2kg)

88% of respondents would adopt at the estimated market price

Decreasing demand as price increases

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1600 3200 5000 5800 6500 8000 9800 11000 13000

Pe

rce

nt

of

Re

spo

nd

en

ts

Discount or Premium Price ( per 2.5 bags--90kg/bag)

44% of respondents would adopt at the estimated market price

Decreasing demand as price increases

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

500 1000 1500 1800 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000

Pe

rce

nt

of

Re

spo

nd

en

ts

Discount or Premium Price (Ksh/4x4m for 8-10 bags)

67% of respondents would adopt at the estimated

Decreasing demand as price increases

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

700 1400 2100 2500 2800 3500 4200 4900 5600

Pe

rce

nt

of

Re

spo

nd

en

ts

Discount or Premium Price (Ksh/2.5bags at 90kg/bag)

50% of respondents would adopt at the estimated

Decreasing demand as price increases

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

300 500 800 900 1000 1300 1500 1800 2000

Pe

rce

nt

of

Re

spo

nd

en

ts

Discount or Premium Price Ksh/2.5acre of biocontrol)

70% of respondents would adopt at the estimated market price

Initial price Mean price Premium/ discount

Improved seed (Ksh/2kg) 240 425 77

Metal silo (Ksh/2.5 bags--90kg/bag) 6500 5734 -12

Drying on tarpaulin (Ksh/4x4m for 8bags 2000 2591 30

Plastic silo (Ksh/2.5bags--90kg/bag) 2800 2800 0

Biocontrol (Ksh/2.5acre of biocontrol 1000 1575 58

Aflatoxin-reduction Technology

Factors that significantly influence demand

Improved seed

(Ksh/2kg)

Land Assets, age of HHH(-),HHs with children below 5 years old, HH heads primary occupation is non-agric, and knowledge and perception of risk of aflatoxin

Metal silo

(Ksh/2.5 bags--90kg/bag) Land owned, age of HHH(-),HHs with children below 5 years old, and perception of risk of aflatoxin

Drying on tarpaulin (Ksh/4x4m for 8bags

Land owned and assets, and perception of risk of aflatoxin

Biocontrol

(Ksh/2.5acre of biocontrol) Land owned and assets

Those producers who accepted the market price have higher willingness to pay for more cost-effective aflatoxin-reduction technologies

Younger farmers demand more for aflatoxin-reduction technologies

Liquidity constraint is binding in all technologies; those with more assets or income are more willing to pay for aflatoxin-reduction technologies

Perception on risk of aflatoxin contamination affects demand for improved seeds, metal silos, and tarpaulins

Knowledge on attributes associated with moulds affects demand of improved seeds