ESS and BCM Exercise Modeling Exercise Presentation by ... · Microsoft PowerPoint -...
Transcript of ESS and BCM Exercise Modeling Exercise Presentation by ... · Microsoft PowerPoint -...
AIM LCS Workshop 2008AIM-LCS Workshop 200831 October 2008, Tsukuba
ESS and BCM Exercise Modeling gExercise Presentation by
Thailand TeamThailand Team
Shreekar Pradhan and Mayurachat Watcharejyothin Asian Institute of Technology
Pathumthani ThailandPathumthani, Thailand
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Brief Background
• Location: – Area of 513,115 km2 and extends about
1,620 km from north to south and 775 kilometres from east to west.
• Population: 64.76 million
• Population Density: 126 people/km2• Population Density: 126 people/km
• GDP: US $ 176 billion
GDP it US $ 2727 ( 2005)• GDP per capita: US $ 2727 (year 2005)
• Economy: 2nd highest in the ASEAN region
CO2, TPES, GDP and Population Growthduring 1990-2006g
2.6CO2
2.2
2.4 TPES
GDP
P l ti
1.8
2
x (1
990=
100) Population
1.4
1.6Inde
x
1
1.2
AAGR (2001-2006):
1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
3Source: DEDE, 2006, IMF, 2008, IEA, 2007 and 2008
( )CO2: 4.35% Population: 1.02%TPES: 5.91% GDP: 5.07%
Final Energy Demand during 2000-2050 in the Reference Scenarioin the Reference Scenario
350
400Agriculture
300
350 Residential
Commercial
Transport
200
250
Mto
e
Industrial
100
150
50
100
Source: Shrestha et al., 2008
Final Energy Demand in future would increase by more than 6 folds during 2000-2050.
02000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
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Residential: decrease from 17% to 4% Industrial: increase from 33% to 41%Agriculture: decrease from 4% to 1% Commercial : Increase from 6% to 12%
Transport: Increase from 40% to 42%
Sectoral CO2 emission during 2000-2050 in the Reference Scenario?
1200
1400
AgricultureResidential
Agriculture1000
1200 CommercialTransportPowerIndustrial
Residential
Agriculture
600
800
MtC
O2
Power
TransportCommercial
400
600
Industrial
0
200
• Increase in CO2 emission by more than 6 folds during 2000-2050.
02000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
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2 y g• Industrial, Transport and Power sectors together account for 94% of the
cumulative CO2 emission during 2000-2050.
Path to Low Carbon Society by 2050
Our past studies (based on bottom up models) in developing LCS scenarios show that the two areasdeveloping LCS scenarios show that the two areas would be the main sector that larger CO2 emission reduction would be achieved:reduction would be achieved:
a) transport and b) electricity generationb) electricity generation
The study also shows that unless we introduce some majorThe study also shows that unless we introduce some major policy changes in other sectors as well like fuel shifting, modal shift, the higher CO2 emission would not be possible in the current structure.
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Path to Low Carbon Society by 2050In this study, we have focused on the following sectors for ESS and
BCM exercises:R id ti l• Residential
• Transport• Electricity GenerationElectricity Generation
The issue of climate change would be of major concern. • With the declining population growth, there would be growth in aging
population and also a mature society.• With the economy growing and declining population the• With the economy growing and declining population, the
income/capita would rise. This makes shifting to cleaner fuel options and technology options affordable.
• The consumption of fossil fuel would be drastically reduced and cleaner fuel would be the major choice.
• As a result, the cost of fossil fuel would go up and people would beAs a result, the cost of fossil fuel would go up and people would be inclined to cleaner fuel use.
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Residential andResidential and Power Generation
Residential Sector
In the residential sector, the following actions and strategy would be implemented:be implemented:
• Energy efficiency (EE) labeling program for household appliances in phase wise: (EE would increase by 50% by pp p ( y y2020 and 75% by 2050 for all air conditioners manufactured in the country.)P l ill t t i l ti th i h f 2015 d• People will start insulating their homes from 2015 onward as a result there would be reduction of 2 Mtoe by 2050 .
• By 2050 oil based cooking will be shifted to electricity basedBy 2050, oil based cooking will be shifted to electricity based cooking.
• The manufacturing capacity of domestic solar water heating systems would be developed by 2015; people would start utilizing solar water heating systems from 2020 onward.
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Electricity Generation Sector
With the increasing fuel shift towards electricity in residential sector there would be a need to shift to cleaner fuel insector, there would be a need to shift to cleaner fuel in electricity generation. Thus, the following actions and strategy would be implemented:
• With the expected growing economy, the electricity demand would significantly rise. At present, the power generation is heavily based on natural gas along with coalheavily based on natural gas along with coal.
• In order to meet the power demand, nuclear power generation would be put as an option by 2020.p p y
• With the technology transfer and improvement program in power generation, all fossil fuel power generation would achieve 50% efficiency by 2050.
• The Renewable Energy Portfolio Standard (RPS) scheme would be maintained; 6 Mtoe power generation would comewould be maintained; 6 Mtoe power generation would come from renewable energy resources.
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Options: Energy Efficiency Improvement (an Example)( p )
Energy Efficiency Improvement in cooling
HH appliancesHH appliances
Stricter Energy Efficiency Labeling Program
Ph IIPhase II
Review of the program
Soft l
Energy Efficiency Labeling Program
Phase Iloans
Technology Transfer
Conferences, workshop, media
Increasing awareness
Survey on the Survey on energy
Programp,
campaign among the stakeholders
share of EE cooling devices
efficiency of cooling devices
CO2 Reduction by intervention in Residential and Power GenerationResidential and Power Generation
12Source: DEDE, 2006
CO2 Reduction by Different Options
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ACTIONS
focused on
Transport passenger sector
Transport Sector Policies in Thailand
• Biofuel development and promotionGasohol– Gasohol
• Targeted replacement of gasoline fuel use.• Strategy to promote fuel-flex vehicles
Biodiesel– Biodiesel• Targeted replacement of diesel fuel use.• Community level biodiesel production.
St t t t t l hi l• Strategy to promote natural gas vehicles– Subsidy in compressed natural gas
• Development and Strategy to promote Mass RapidDevelopment and Strategy to promote Mass Rapid Transits
– Extending of electrified subways and sky trains.Development of double track railways– Development of double track railways.
– Development of intercity electric trains.– High speed electric engines to replace diesel engines in Railways.
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Actions in Passenger Transport Sector
**Action**Reductions of
EC andCO2 i i
Energy
CO2 emission
Infrastructure&Fuel supply
gyEfficiency
improvementSystematic control
R&DInfrastructure&InvestmentPlanning
Trafficcontrol
Bio-fuel promotion
SynergyPlan agri/energy
supplyCommon
access
Intelligent Priority parking
FFVsdevelopment
FFVsmanufacturing
RegionalEl t i t iIntelligent
system (GIS)
Priority lanes
Priority parkinglodge
Commonticket
PublicInformation
Cost, benefits, safety
Electric train
Urban planning
Incentive-Investment tax
-Environmental tax-Price tax
16Data survey
Key Assumptions: Transport Sector
• Projection of service energy demand is based on sectoral value addedsectoral value added– Moderate Growth for 2000-2050:
• Personal passenger vehicles (PPV)PPV ll 4 5%– PPV-small: 4.5%
– PPV-mini:4.5%– PPV-large:3.3%
Commercial passenger vehicles (CPV): 3 3%• Commercial passenger vehicles (CPV): 3.3%• Bus: 2.8%• Train: 3.3%
Shi 2 8%• Ship: 2.8%• Air: 4.0%
Options Descriptions Commence Durations (Years)
1 Sytematic Traffic Control 2015 51 Sytematic Traffic Control 2015 5
2 Master plan for clean and green city 2015 15
3 Incentive tax to promote the clean-green of central urban areas 2020 5
5 High efficiency passenger vehicle 2020 20
6 High efficiency passenger bio-fuel vehicles 2010 20
7 Green tax for low environmental load vehicle 2020 30
8 Priority lanes and parkings lodge for environmental friendly vehicle 2020 30
9 Bus rapid track 2010 20
ACTIONS10 Common ticket for bus, train, ship 2010 20
11 High efficiency passenger railway (ELE, TRN) 2020 20
12 High efficiency passenger ship (OIL, SHP) 2020 20
13 High efficiency passenger Bio-alcohl ship (BMS, SHP) 2020 2013 High efficiency passenger Bio alcohl ship (BMS, SHP) 2020 20
14 High efficiency passenger airplane (OIL, AIR) 2020 20
15 High efficiency passenger biofuel airplane (BMS, AIR) 2020 20
16 Improvement of the efficiency of public transportation 2010 40
17 R&D support for lighter and FFVs maintenance training public hearing 2008 1517 R&D support for lighter and FFVs, maintenance, training, public hearing 2008 15
18 Promotion of biomass utilization 2008 0
19 Relaxation of regulations and cost reduction in certain regions 2010 15
20 Synergy plans for agriculture/forestry/energy 2010 20
21 Cost reduction of biomass conversion technology 2010 35
22 Soft loan at initial stage of efficient FFVs 2010 5
23 Modal shift to public transportation service 2008 20
24 Carbon tax on transportation energy 2010 10
25 Regional-electric train 2020 10
26 Fuel Shift for Mini Passenger vehicle 2010 40
Impacts of
ACTIONS
Preliminary Results
CO2 Emission: BAU and Scenario Cases
ACTIONS
focused on
Transport passenger sector
Impacts of the Action
Total CO2 Emission Reduction 2
0.00
0.20
-0.03 Mtons
-0.20
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
2044
2046
2048
-0.60
-0.40
-1.00
-0.80
3 14 Mt-1.20
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
3.14 Mtons
28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45
Impacts of the Action
CO2 Emission Reduction by Options
0.20
2 y pIncreasing of electric train services
-0.200.00
-0.60-0.40
High efficiency in small (28%)
-1.00-0.80
High efficiency in small (28%) and mini (32%) PPVs
-1.201 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43
Mtons
Discussion on ESS and BCM
• Effectiveness: Reasonable – Back casting!Addi diff t ti i t diff t h t ?• Adding different options in two different sheets?
• Fuel share in intermittent years?• Amount of CO2 reduction by policy options (may not
directly reduce CO2)?I t t f l f l t h l ti ?• Investment for cleaner fuel or technology options?
• Linking with other models?
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Thank You!
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