ESOMAR Vietnam Industry Overview & Future Trends · VIETNAM CONSUMER TRENDS 2015 –2016 M2...
Transcript of ESOMAR Vietnam Industry Overview & Future Trends · VIETNAM CONSUMER TRENDS 2015 –2016 M2...
ESOMAR Vietnam – Industry Overview & Future Trends
Ralf MatthaesESOMAR Representative [email protected]
ESOMAR – VMRC Consumer Trends Summit - April 6, 2016
ESOMAR Vietnam 2015 Overview & 2016 Preview
ESOMAR 2015 Market sizing report
2015 was the first year in over a decade, witnessing a decline of overall growth of market research spend. The market contracted to US $75 Million fueled by a decline in custom revenues of 14%, while syndicated services continued their healthy growth by 6%.
2015 also marked the first year that syndicated research services, such as TV Advertising Measurement, Retail Audits, etc., exceeded custom research revenues, making Vietnam one of the few global markets where syndicated research services account for more spend than custom research.
A key contributing factors to Customs decline is the fact that 90% of data collection in Vietnam is still conducted face-to-face, which is slow, costly and declining in quality, as face-to-face does not pick up hard to reach and more affluent consumers.
Both clients and the MR industry are beginning to understand the limitation of face-to-face data collection and see the advent of smartphone data collection as a key innovation required to alleviate this issue.
For 2016, the industry should get back on track and see positive growth in both Custom and Syndicated research, but a shift is afoot to move research to both Mobile and On-line data collection platforms.
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Data Collection Methods & Benefits of Mobile
92%
5%
1%
1%
1%
10%
5%
50%
25%
10%
40%
5%
10%
35%
10%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Face 2 face
Telephone
On-line
Mobile
Big DataVN 2020 Estimate
Japan 2015
VN 2015
Vietnam has one for the highest face to face interviewing rates globally, but should shift to mobile over the next 5 years.
ESOMAR Global Report 2015
VN leap frogsto Mobile
80
7068
50
20
50
20
10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Speed of delivery Measure Behaviour Tactical decisionmaking
Price
Total mentions Most Important
Data collection methods Benefits of mobile research
100% are keen to use mobile if representative sample can be achieved
Source: Industry expert interviews n = 15 CEO’s
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ESOMAR Vietnam survey results 2016
25%
42%
33%
MR Industry biggest Fears
Biggest threats facing MR = mobile research, client sophistication, price pressuresClient detractors of MR = generating insights, a lack of innovation, poor quality
6 6 715
20
46
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Price Timing Ruralcoverage
Quality Lack ofinnovation
Actionableinsights
Drawbacks of Market Research
Source: Industry expert interviews n = 15 CEO’s - Unilever, Mason, Dutchlady, etc…
Mobile
OthersClient
expectationPrice
Base: 12 MR companies
ESOMAR Vietnam
For more information contact: Ralf MatthaesESOMAR Representative [email protected]
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THE GOAT IN REVIEW / THE MONKEY PREVIEWVIETNAM CONSUMER TRENDS 2015 – 2016M2 – ESOMAR – VMRC Consumer Trends Summit - April 6, 2016
Ralf MatthaesManaging DirectorInfocus Mekong Research
:www.ifmresearch.com [email protected]
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7968
5651
8286
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
A massive increase in Consumer and Business confidence over last 18 months indicates that Consumer spend and business expansion should be on the rise.
Consumer Confidence Index (%): TNS 2011-2015 & Infocus CCI 2016 | Urban onlyx
2011 - 2016 Confidence Indices
79
48
56
7859
X Business Confidence Index (%): Euro Cham Vietnam
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25%
48%
47%
18%
15%
11%
9%
35%
36%
36%
37%
29%
38%
32%
41%
17%
17%
45%
56%
51%
60%
Average %
Value of the Vietnamese dong
The cost of living
Employment
Vietnam's economy
My personal standard of living
Foreign investment
worse same better
Average
Perception of 2016 in terms of key economic indicesKey concerns for 2016 revolve around the value of the VND and the increase in the cost of living, while FDI, personal standard of living and Vietnam’s economic prosperity are big positives….
source: Infocus CCI Base: n = 512
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Will you spend More - The Same - Less in 2016 vs 2015?
45%
34%
38%
38%
40%
44%
44%
47%
48%
50%
55%
56%
47%
55%
55%
56%
49%
52%
38%
47%
44%
44%
41%
38%
Average %
Home appliances
Household utilities
Transportation
Personal quip. (phones/laptops, etc)
communications (tele.email)
Entertainment & dining out
Food & beverages products
Personal care products
House hold care products
Health care products/services
Education
more same less
source: Infocus CCI Base: n = 512
2016 should see continued growth in consumer spend. Education, Healthcare and Household products should see the positive upswings in spend.
Average
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41
54
60
81
84
86
4
11
42
37
58
31
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Smart TV
iPad /Tablet
Desktop
Laptop
Home Wifi Internet
Smart Phone
Urban Digital Ownership 2013
2015
Explosion of Digital & Smartphones
source: Infocus Base: n = 2,800
In a short two years, all that is smart / communications driven, has exploded. Consumers are craving connectivity / info / entertainment via personalized gadgets…
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Growth of high end / high cost items
111,000
157,000
215,000
290,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
2013 2014 2015 2016*
Automobile sales
Auto sales are indicative of Vietnamese joining the developed world & upscaling their lives
source: V.A.M.A
28 5
40
70
13
32
4859
91
0102030405060708090
100
Vehicles Lifeinsurance
Credit |Debit card
Air-con ATM Card
Urban ownership growth (%)
2013 2015
source: Infocus Base: n = 2,800
Huge growth in creature features and security products, highlighting desire for global integration
*estimate
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Percent of consumer who took out loans in 2015 & why?
36
25
20
5
5
5
0 10 20 30 40
Lower income
Total
Higher income
Yes Yes More than 1
An astonishing 30% of those surveyed took out bank loans in 2015 & 41% of lower income earners, mostly for real estate (35%) & business investments (25%).
5%
35%
24%
13%
9%
14%
Purpose of Loan
Automobile
Real Estate
Business
Education
Personal
Others
Take out Loan
Source: Infocus CCI Base: n = 512
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The disconnect between media spend and media consumption
5
85
3
4
29
16
57 6
1
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
2016
2015
TV Print (all) Digital Smartphone Other
Media spend % of total
Time spent when not a work
Overall Media spend grew by 10% in 2015. TV makes up 85% of all measured advertising spend.However 57% of consumer note they send most time on their smartphone….
Base: 6,015
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Daily activity you do most, when not working?
29%
5% 9%
Using Smart PhoneUsing Laptop / PCWatching TVOthers
source: Infocus CCI Base: n = 512
2%
26%
25%
18%
29%
0% 10% 20% 30%
1 hour or less / day
1-2 hours / day
2-3 hours / day
3-4 hours / day
4 plus hours / day
Most popular daily activity (%)
Major shift in consumers activities to mobile and on-line. Over half of urban consumers note mobile usage as #1 activity, of which half spend 4 plus hours a day on their mobile.
57%
Time spent on your favorite medium(%)
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2016 Predictions
“The trouble with our
times is that the future is not what it used to be.”
Paul Valery
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Vietnam is out of recession, but…
2015 KEY GROWTH TRENDS 2016 PREDICTIONS
Positives = Confidence, Growth & Spend
1Business & Consumer confidence have increased substantially, driving growth
Increase investment and consumer spend should make 2016 best year ever, in terms of overall growth
2Over 25% growth of Digital & Mobile connectivity
Much more opportunity for digital content, messaging and overall connectivity…
3Gradual increase in FMCG spend in Modern Trade
Continued growth in modern trade with potential uplift for overall FMCG spend
4Growth of Banking, Education, Healthcare spend, etc.
Accelerations of all, so long at CPI stays in check
Negatives = debt culture aligning with China / US Sub-prime?
1VN becoming debt reliant / credit culture, borrowing to catch up with the “Nguyens”
Any major global crisis / currency destabilization, could be devastating for Vietnam due to bad debt
2New laws on investment, enterprise, real
estate, etc., yet to see impact - Danger!Fear of mass speculation and skyrocketing inflation as in 2008…
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M2 Survey ResultsConducted live &presented within 20 minutesBase: N = 55
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33
4 42
The growth of Mobile advertising
The growth of Online advertising
The decline of traditional free toAir TV
The decline of Print (newspapers /magazines) readership
New formats of Advertising not yetin Vietnam
Biggest change in media consumption
33
25 25
8 8
The increase in Onlineshopping
The increase in smartphoneshopping
The increase in conveniencestore usage
The increase in competition(new players)
The increase in Super /Hypermarket usage
Biggest opportunity for growth in Retail
Base: N = 55
Growth of Mobile / on-line adverting as seen as key changes in media consumption
On-line / mobile shopping and convenience store growth dominate retail future trends
@
@
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47
25
1410
4
Smartphone research
Online research
Big data
Syndicated Research
Client sophistication
What do you think the biggest evolution will be in Market Research in Vietnam the near future?
@
Base: N = 55
Smartphone research will dominate future research trends
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Credentials
Smartphone based Panel Driven Research
M2 – ESOMAR – VMRC Consumer Trends Summit - April 6, 2016
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Six key advantages to panel based mobile research
AFFORDABLE30% to 60%
cheaper
FASTResults in days
not weeks
DEMOGRAPHIC DATABASE190 consumer data points
HIGH QUALITYNegates interviewer bias, built in security
filters
NATIONAL REACHUrban / Rural,
any day, anytime
REAL TIME MEASUREMENTMeasures behaviour, not perceptions
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Why Mobile Research - Focused - Faster - Efficient
Smart phones are becoming ubiquitous in Vietnam, exceeding 50% penetration (80% urban)
Consumers are more difficult to reach, especially the affluent, who are busy or not at home, limiting traditional data collection.
We provide clients with insights that are much more focussed, faster and more cost efficient, with high quality results.
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The growth of smartphone opportunity in Vietnam
6857
4939
32 43 51 61
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2013 2014 2015 2016 est.
Smart vs Feature phone share growth (%)
Feature Phone Smartphones
Smartphone is the single largest consumer growth opportunity in Vietnam, with an average growth rate of over 30% annually.
With urban Vietnam already over 80% penetration, the last conquest is rural Vietnam, changing the face of communication forever…
Are you READY!
source:
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We don’t believe in ‘device agnostic’We believe that the approach to research must be reviewed and customised to suit mobile in a way that makes sense to consumers: shorter surveys that hold relevance & allow for in-the-moment feedback - We are mobile research
Mobile specific – fits all phone screens and operating systems
Simple – key is to have clear and easy to follow instructions (limit to 10 attributes max)
National Reach – speak to thousands of consumers nation-wide, in days not weeks
Short survey’s – ideal is 7-12 minutes
Bunching – can send longer survey’s in increments of 2 to 3 mini surveys
Insightful – Encouraging top of mind open-ended responses – extremely diagnostic.
Mobile Research Benefits
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The Mobile offer
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Mobile offer
MYSTERY SHOPPING
Understand in-store performance and service levels using mobile. Ideal for audits and PoSmeasurement.
TACTICAL & IMMEDIATE RESPONSE (TAIR)
Sometimes you need to know things quicker. Gain the answers in less then 72 hours.
we focus on 7 core offers
RAPITEST: ADVERTISING & CAMPAIGN EVALUATION
Test & validate TVC’s, viral campaigns and other marketing materials. Know the results within 48 hours.
CUSTOMER SATISFACTION
Real –time customer satisfaction scores utilizing mobile research
U&A / TRACKING
Unique alternative to traditional U&A and tracking work with Mobile data capture. You can receive your core brand health measures within days
SPONSORSHIP EVALUATION
SponsorMap™ assesses influence of sponsorship on consumers’ attitudes & behavior changes. Ideal for immediate event measurement
PRODUCT WET SAMPLING Ideal for gaining immediate feedback on wet sampling and door to door qualiy control of sample promotions
impact / activities
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A mobile-based survey tool that delivers high-quality compressed video or digital images & surveysRapitest works on all mobile devices, but focusing on smartphone
Surveys can be shared via SMS to respondents or embedded in an app, branded or unbranded or emailed if required
Ad Pre / Post-Testing All Viral materials Talent Evaluation Communications Concept
Tests Product / Concept Tests Sponsorship Evaluation Positioning Evaluation Brand Activation Evaluation
We are able to control which device our panellists use and also control the size of screen for testing
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Active & Managed Mobile PanelRobust - Representative High net worth
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20% 36% 23% 15% 6%
18-24 25-29 30-34 35-44 45+53 47
Gender
overview: n = 30,252
Updated: March 25, 2016
Single Married
46 53
Marital status
Other 1
6% 15% 73% - University / Post Graduate
EducationGrade 1-12
VocationalCollege
7%
12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7%4% 4% 3%
7%
12%
7%7% 8%
7%
5%4%
4% 4%
1%
9%
Education IT Sales Retail Finance Construction Hospitality Healthcare HR Marketing Other
Urban Rural
Age
Profession
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Location by Sample
48%
34%
18%
31%
39%
30%
29%
41%
30%
AB
CD
EF
Metro 2nd cities Rural
locationsIFM Panel segments Vietnam using the official GSO statistics for urban metro Vietnam, Secondary cities and rural Vietnam. Rural are all areas which do not fall into either Metro or Secondary cities.
Metro Urban Cities# City name Population Region1 Can Tho 1,238,300 Mekong2 Da Nang 1,007,700 Central3 Hai Phong 1,946,000 North4 Ha Noi 7,379,300 Red River Delta5 Ho Chi Minh City 8,244,400 South Central
Total 19,815,700Secondary Cities
City name Population Region1 Hạ Long 203,731 North2 Nam Định 191,900 Red River Delta3 Thanh Hóa 197,551 North4 Thái Nguyên 330,000 North5 Việt Trì 277,539 North6 Vinh 282,981 North7 Huế 333,715 Central 8 Nha Trang 392,279 Central9 Quy Nhơn 311,000 Central
10 Buôn Ma Thuột 340,000 Highlands11 Đà Lạt 256,393 Highlands12 Biên Hòa 1,104,495 South Central13 Vũng Tàu 450,000 Mekong
Total 4,671,584
Source: Hanoi GSO
Base: n = 30,252
72%
10%
18%Metro 21,600
2nd Cities 3,222
Rural 5,430
Location by income
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income & representation
0.5 0.55
10 10
23
50
1
710
24 24 24
10
14 1316 17
19
13
8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
A Class B Class C Class D Class E Class F Class Below Minwage
IFM PANEL SEC vs F2F vs On-line (%)
On-line panels Face 2 Face IFM Mobilepanel
43% IFM Panel SEC: ABC
Consumers are now wealthier and harder to reach. Face-to-face sampling does not pick up representation of high net worth respondents, while on-line is student driven. IFM Mobile panel naturally reaches higher net worth individuals with smartphones.
Source: ESOMAR
Total
A1
A
B
C
D
E
F F1
14%
13%
16%
17%
19%
13%
2 6%
A1 40 Mil above D 15-20 Mil
A 30-40 Mil E 10-15 Mil
B 25-30 Mil F 5-10 Mil
C 20-25 Mil F1 5 Mil below
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IFM Panels Connecting you to your target consumers
IT SpecialistsN = 3,090
CEO / Business OwnersN = 2,850
Financial ServicesN = 2,436
Credit / Debit Card Panel N = 17,040
HR SpecialistsN = 1,080
Insurance OwnersN = 26,244
Income 30 Mil VND Plus N = 8,958
Education ProsN = 2,401
Home ownersN = 3,546
Retailers N = 2,646
MothersN = 9,264
Healthcare ProsN = 1,200
FMCG PanelN = 30,020
Automotive N = 5,034
Mobile PhoneN = 32,472
Rural PanelN = 5,521
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Ralf Matthaes | Managing DirectorTel: +84-8 2262-7627Mobile: +84-903-949-531Website: www.ifmresearch.comifmpanel website: www.ifmpanel.com
Email: [email protected] Dang Huu Pho Street, Thao Dien, An Phu, HCMC, Vietnam