Enterprise and Political Risk Management in Complex Systems by K. Ensor, L. Kyj, & G. C. Marfin

8/9/2019 Enterprise and Political Risk Management in Complex Systems by K. Ensor, L. Kyj, & G. C. Marfin

1/14

TBH KAX_@JI AC H@H_MV

J@D DHSHIA^LH@T

Ejtbhrf`h O. H`war) Ijdj Evk) j`d Mjrv G. Ljrcf`)

H`thr~rfwh j`d ^aiftfgji _fwe Lj`jmhlh`t f`

Gal~ih Wvwthlw)

Saixlh 7?) @xlohr ?

Ga~vrfmbt ?>>6


2/14

H@TH_^_FWH J@D ÂIFTFGJI _FWE

LJ@JMHLH@T F@ GALÎHR WVWTHLW

Ejtbhrf`h O. H`war) Ijdj Evk) j`d Mjrv G. Ljrcf`+

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rhgam`f{hd }ftb j}jrdw cral Thjw J#L) _fgh X`fshrwftv) j`d tbh Jlhrfgj` Wtjtfwtfgji Jwwa,

gfjtfa`. Tbh jxtbar bjw whrshd a` tbh hdftarfji oajrdw ac Thgbàlhtrfgw) Kaxr`ji ac WtjtfwtfgjiGal~xtjtfa` j`d Wflxijtfa`) j`d gxrrh`tiv fw j` jwwagfjth hdftar car tbh Kaxr`ji ac tbh Jlhrfgj`

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_hwhjrgb Accfgh) tbh Gftv ac Baxwta`) j`d tbh @jtfa`ji F`wtftxthw ac Bhjitb.

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jw }hii jw ljef`m j `xlohr ac ~rachwwfa`ji ~rhwh`tjtfa`w.

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hwtjoifwbhd j`d fl~ihlh`thd j` j~~rajgb car jwwhwwf`m ~aiftfgji rfwe f` ljkar gj~ftji f`shwtlh`t

~rakhgtw. Bh bjw whrshd a` tbh oajrd ac tbh Baxwta` gbj~thr ac tbh Jwfj Wagfhtv j`d tbh Baxwta`

]arid Jccjfrw Gax`gfi) }bhrh bh whrshd jw gbjfr f` ?>>:,?>>?. Lr. Ljrcf`) }ba baidw j O.J. j`d

L.J. cral tbh X`fshrwftv ac Baxwta`) bjw ohh` j lhlohr ac tbh jdkx`gt cjgxitv j`d j ihgtxrhr f` tbh

Khwwh B. Ka`hw Mrjdxjth Wgbaai ac Lj`jmhlh`t jt _fgh. @ath; Tbfw rhwhjrgb }jw wx~~arthd ov tbh

_fgh Miaoji H`mf`hhrf`m j`d Ga`wtrxgtfa` Carxl) tbh @jtfa`ji Wgfh`gh Cax`djtfa`) j`d tbh Jrlv

_hwhjrgb Accfgh.

Tbh Kaxr`ji ac H`hrmv j`d Dhshia~lh`t) Sai. 7?) @a. ?

Ga~vrfmbt ?>>6 ov tbh F`thr`jtfa`ji _hwhjrgb Gh`thr car H`hrmv j`d Hgaàlfg Dhshia~lh`t"FGHHD&. Jii rfmbtw rhwhrshd.

?:2


3/14

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ft ohgalhw j~~jrh`t tbjt tbh h`hrmv whgtar h~hrfh`ghd ~aiftfgji rfwe ohcarh ft

~awwhwwhd tbh j`jivtfgji taaiw ta cjgtar wxgb rfwe f`ta ~rakhgt) iht jia`h ~artcaifa)

hgaàlfgw.

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oh wxrh) tbhrh j~~hjrw ta oh à wf`mih) wtj`djrdf{hd j~~rajgb) oxt tbhrh jrh a~tfa`w

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larh `hhdw ta oh da`h. W~hgfcfgjiiv) f` tbfw ~j~hr j`d }ftb j cagxw a` carhfm`

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j ~rakhgt f` j mfsh` gax`trv lfmbt oh) ft à`htbhihww ljv oh wxwgh~tfoih ta jdshrwh

hsh`tw mhamrj~bfgjiiv cjr jcfhid cral j`d ~awwfoiv frrhihsj`t ta tbh ~rakhgtw balh.

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Dalfàhw f` tbh _axmb

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gax`trv "ar gax`trfhw f` tbh gjwh ac graww,oardhr ~rakhgtw&) fw tbh j~~ra~rfjth

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`jtfa`w ~aiftfgji rfwe gj` f`gixdh jtthl~tw ta mjxmh ftw ~ra~h`wftv car f`thr, j`d

f`trj,wtjth ga`cifgt) tbh wtjofiftv ac tbh rhmflh) tbh hccfgfh`gv ac ftw ~aiftfgji

f`wtftxtfa`w) ftw ashrjii ~aifgv crjlh}are) ftw }fiif`m`hww ta baàr ga`trjgtxji

jrrj`mhlh`tw; jii j`d atbhr cjgtarw ar jrhjw gj` oh fdh`tfcfhd f` wxgb j`

jwwhwwlh`t. @hhdihww ta wjv) f` j`v mfsh` gax`trv ft fw tbh ~raojofiftv ac jdshrwh

rfwe hsh`tw wthllf`m cral a`h ac tbh cjgtarw tbjt jcchgtw j gax`trvw ~hrghfshd

ihshi ac rfwe rhijtfsh ta atbhr `jtfa`wjt tbh ihshi ac gax`trv rfwe.

Tbh whga`d j`d acth` larh dfccfgxit wth~ fw ta jwwhww }bjt fl~jgt) fc j`v) tbhgax`trv,ihshi rfwe cjgtarw bjsh a` j`v mfsh` ~rakhgt. Car hjl~ih) j gal~j`v

lfmbt oh ga`wfdhrf`m j` f`shwtlh`t f` j `jtfa` }bhrh tbh rhmflh fw wtjoih j`d tbh

H@TH_^_FWH J@D ÂIFTFGJI _FWE LJ@JMHLH@T ?:6


4/14

f`wtftxtfa`w jrh hccfgfh`t) oxt ftw tj ~aifgv wbfctw f` rhw~a`wh ta dalhwtfg ~rhwwxrhw.

Tbh gal~j`v lfmbt ohifhsh tbhrh fw j` 2>,~hrgh`t ~raojofiftv tbjt tbh rhmflh }fii

jithr ftw tj ~aifgv) oxt aìv j ?>,~hrgh`t gxlxijtfsh ~raojofiftv tbjt ftw ~rakhgtw

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gbj`gh tbjt tbh tj rjth }fii oh jithrhd ashr tbh ifch ac tbh ~rakhgt. Hsh` fc tbhgal~j`v fw ga`cfdh`t tbjt 24 ~hrgh`t ac tbh tflh ftw ~rakhgtw cfwgji thrlw rhljf`

f`tjgt) ft fw wtfii fl~hrjtfsh ta hwtfljth ba} tbh thrlw lfmbt oh gbj`mhd f` :3

~hrgh`t ac tbh }aridw f` }bfgb ft ~rhwxljoiv }fii oh rhzxfrhd ta f`grhjwh ftw tj

~jvlh`tw. ]fii tbh gal~j`v ~jv :> ~hrgh`t) ?> ~hrgh`t) ar larh f` tjhw1

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Jdlftthdiv) }bh` tbh wtjehw jrh bfmb) ft gj` oh x`whttif`m car carhfm` dfrhgt

f`shwtarw ta rhiv) jw tbhv jilawt ghrtjfìv }fii) a` wxokhgtfsh ~raojofiftfhw. Oxt

rhivf`m a` wxokhgtfsh ~raojofiftfhw fw àt x`fzxh ta ~aiftfgji rfwe jwwhwwlh`tw. Larh

~raoihljtfg fw tbh zxhwtfa` ac }bhtbhr tbh jwwhwwlh`t fw gal~ihth.

Jw }h bjsh whh`) j` fl~artj`t cjght ac j ~aiftfgji rfwe jwwhwwlh`t fw tbh jofiftv

ta fdh`tfcv j`d tbh` jttjgb j ~raojofiftv ta tbawh hsh`tw tbjt lfmbt fl~jfr j

~rakhgtw h~hgthd sjixh. Ft fw fl~artj`t ta rhlhlohr tbjt tbh aokhgtfsh ac tbh

j`jivwfw fw àt tbh j`tfgf~jtfa` ac tbh hsh`t ~hr wh) oxt tbh fl~jgt a` sjixhtbh

dh~h`dh`t sjrfjoih. Tbh dfccfgxitv fw tbjt) }bfih jdshrwh hsh`tw ljv }hii fl~jfr j

~rakhgtw sjixh) ft jiwa fw ~awwfoih tbjt sjixhw gj` oh fl~jfrhd f` tbh jowh`gh ac

jdshrwh) gax`trv,w~hgfcfg hsh`tw.

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trfhw. Fc wa) j gax`trv,w~hgfcfg j~~rajgb }fii cjfi ta gj~txrh tbh à`,f`dh~h`dh`gh

ac rfwe hsh`tw. X`cartx`jthiv) jw vht }h ijge tbh djtj `hghwwjrv ta dhthrlf`h) }ftb

tbh ~awwfoih hgh~tfa` ac `jtfa`jif{jtfa`) tbh dhmrhh ta }bfgb jdshrwh hsh`tw rh,

wxitf`m f` sjixh fl~jfrlh`tw jrh garrhijthd jgraww gal~jrjoih ~rakhgtw f` lxitf~ih

gax`trfhw.

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ivwtw bjsh iaaehd jt tbfw ~awwfofiftv) àt cral j ~rakhgt,w~hgfcfg wtj`d~af`t oxt

cral tbh ~hrw~hgtfsh ac miaoji cf`j`gfji ljrehtw. ^hrbj~w àt wxr~rfwf`miv) tbh djtjj~~hjr ta wx~~art f`grhjwf`m garrhijtfa` jgraww miaoji ljrehtw ashr tflh.

Ta jwwhww tbh hth`t ac tbh garrhijtfa` }ftb rhijtfshiv rhgh`t djtj) }h j`jiv{hd

Larmj` Wtjìhv Gj~ftji F`thr`jtfa`ji "LWGF& djtj gashrf`m tbh vhjrw Kj`xjrv

:663 tbraxmb Dhghlohr ?>>=.7 ]h ~ijghd tbh gax`trfhw ga`tjf`hd f` tbh LWGF

f`ta a`h ac wf gjthmarfhw; "j& Ijtf` Jlhrfgj hlhrmf`m "Jrmh`tf`j) Orj{fi) Gbfih)

Lhfga) Gaixlofj) ^hrx&5 "o& Hxra~h hlhrmf`m "Mrhhgh) ârtxmji) âij`d) Tbh

G{hgb _h~xoifg) Bx`mjrv) _xwwfj&5 "g& Hxra~h dhshia~hd "X fthd Ef`mdal)

Mhrlj`v) Crj`gh) Ftjiv) Jxwtrfj) Ohimfxl) Dh`ljre) Cfìj`d) @htbhrij`dw) Frh,

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Jcrfgj) F`dfj) Fwrjhi) ^jefwtj`) Hmv~t&5 "h& @artb Jlhrfgj dhshia~hd "X`fthd Wtjthw

TBH KAX_@JI AC H@H_MV J@D DHSHIA^LH@T??>


5/14

j`d Gj`jdj&5 j`d "c& Aghj`fj!Jwfj dhshia~hd "Jxwtrjifj) @h} [hjij`d) Ba`m

Ea`m) Wf`mj~arh) Kj~j`&.

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j`d xwh tbh Hxra~h hlhrmf`m) Ijtf` Jlhrfgj hlhrmf`m) j`d Jwfj hlhrmf`m)

rhw~hgtfshiv) jw tbh ojwh mrax~ }ftb }bfgb garrhijtfa`w jrh gal~xthd. Jw hjgb cfmxrhwba}w) tbh ashrjii trh`d fw ta}jrd bfmbhr garrhijtfa`w jgraww tbh wht ac wf gjthmarfhw.

Wfm`fcfgj`tiv) tbh garrhijtfa` oht}hh` hlhrmf`m ljreht whgtarw j~~rajgbhw >.2.

]bjt dahw tbfw lhj` car tbh ~aiftfgji rfwe ~awhd ta carhfm` dfrhgt f`shwtlh`tw1

T}a ~af`tw lhrft hl~bjwfw. Cfrwt) dfshrwfcvf`m ~aiftfgji rfwe aosfaxwiv ohgalhw

dfccfgxit fc garrhijtfa`w jgraww gax`trfhw jrh rhijtfshiv bfmb. Ft caiia}w tbjt carhfm`

dfrhgt j`d atbhr f`shwtarw wbaxid oh iajtbh ta jwwxlh tbjt ~artcaifaw jrh dfshrwfcfhd

wfl~iv ohgjxwh tbhv ga`wfwt ac baidf`mw tbjt jrh mhamrj~bfgjiiv dfw~hrwhd.

Whga`d) jw àthd hjrifhr) }bjt tv~fgjiiv ljtthrw f` ~rakhgt hgaàlfgw jrh hsh`tw

~rhwxljoiv w~hgfcfg ta tbh ~rakhgt) àt wtage ljreht sjixhw. @hshrtbhihww) ta tbh

Cfmxrh :GA@SH_MH@GH AC LJ_EHTW; GA__HIJTFA@ AC ^H_GH@T _HTX_@W ASH_

TFLH) HLH_MF@M HX_A^HJ@ GAX@T_FHW "HX,H& JW OJWH M_AX^)

KJ@XJ_V :663 TB_AXMB DHGHLOH_ ?>>=

"ojwh mrax~ < :&

H@TH_^_FWH J@D ÂIFTFGJI _FWE LJ@JMHLH@T ??:


6/14

hth`t tbjt ljreht sjixhw jrh `at f`dh~h`dh`t oxt miaojiiv garrhijthd) j`v mfsh`

~rakhgt) jw ~jrt ac j ijrmhr gar~arjth ~artcaifa) ljv bjsh ftw sjixh fl~jfrhd car

rhjwa`w x`rhijthd ta ftw jgtxji j`d!ar h~hgthd ~hrcarlj`gh.

J Tjfi ac T}a Dfwtrfoxtfa`w

Ohva`d w~hgfcfg ~rakhgtw) ba} dahw a`h dhthrlf`h tbh fl~jgt ac ~aiftfgji rfwe

a` tbh tatjiftv ac tbh h`thr~rfwh1 A`h }jv ta j`w}hr tbfw zxhwtfa` fw ta dhthrlf`htbh fl~jgt ac ~aiftfgji rfwe a` tbh ashrjii sjixh jt rfwe "SJ_& ac tbh h`thr~rfwh rfwe

~artcaifa.4

Cfmxrh ?GA@SH_MH@GH AC LJ_EHTW; GA__HIJTFA@ AC ^H_GH@T _HTX_@W ASH_

TFLH) HLH_MF@M IJTF@ JLH_FGJ@ GAX@T_FHW "IJ,H& JW OJWH

M_AX^) KJ@XJ_V :663 TB_AXMB DHGHLOH_ ?>>=

"ojwh mrax~ < :&

TBH KAX_@JI AC H@H_MV J@D DHSHIA^LH@T???


7/14

Tbhrh jrh) ~hrbj~w x`dhrwtj`djoiv) j sjrfhtv ac j~~rajgbhw hl~iavhd car dhthr,

lf`f`m tbh SJ_ ac j` h`thr~rfwh. ]bjthshr tbh j~~rajgb xwhd) tbh xitfljth aokhgtfshfw ta dhthrlf h tbh iaww "ar mjf`& f` sjixh jt j mfsh` ga`cfdh`gh ihshi ashr j w~hgfcfhd

~hrfad ac tflh. Tv~fgjiiv) tbh cagxw fw a` tbh da}`wfdh rfwe cral wa,gjiihd htrhlh

hsh`tw. Car hjl~ih) jt j 68,~hrgh`t ga`cfdh`gh f`thrsji) SJ_ wbaxid thii j wtage

ljreht f`shwtar tbjt tbhrh fw a`iv j 8,~hrgh`t gbj`gh tbjt j iaww ac j ghrtjf` daiijr

jlax`t }fii oh hghhdhddxrf`m j djvw trjdf`m.

J tv~fgji j~~rajgb car dhthrlf`f`m sjixh,jt,rfwe fw ta rhiv a` ardf`jrv ihjwt,

wzxjrhw "AIW& rhmrhwwfa` hwtfljthw. AIW rhmrhwwfa` ~rasfdhw j` hwtfljth ac tbh

ga`dftfa`ji lhj` ac j dfwtrfoxtfa` jw j cx`gtfa` ac h~ij`jtarv sjrfjoihw. Tbh SJ_

fw tbh` gal~xthd ov hjlf`f`m tbh ohbjsfar ac tbh dfwtrfoxtfa` jt a`h) t}a) arlarh wtj`djrd dhsfjtfa`w j}jv cral tbfw lhj` "whh cfmxrh 4&. T}a wtj`djrd

dhsfjtfa`w garrhw~a`d ta tbh 68,~hrgh`t ga`cfdh`gh ihshi.

Cfmxrh 7GA@SH_MH@GH AC LJ_EHTW; GA__HIJTFA@ AC ^H_GH@T _HTX_@W ASH_

TFLH) HLH_MF@M JWFJ@ GAX@T_FHW "JWFJ,H& JW OJWH M_AX^)

KJ@XJ_V :663 TB_AXMB DHGHLOH_ ?>>=

"ojwh mrax~ < :&

H@TH_^_FWH J@D ^AIFTFGJI _FWE LJ@JMHLH@T ??7


8/14

A`h ~raoihl }ftb AIW fw tbjt ft ljv cjfi ta gbjrjgthrf{h tbh ohbjsfar ac

f`dh~h`dh`t sjrfjoihw jt tbh rhijtfsh htrhlhw ac j dfwtrfoxtfa`. F` jtthl~tw ta

fdh`tfcv SJ_) }bhrh lxgb ac tbh cagxw fw a` tbh sjixh jt wtjeh f` htrjardf`jrvga`dftfa`w) tbfw ~raoihl gj` oh ~racax`d. ]ftb rhw~hgt ta ~aiftfgji rfwe) tbh AIW

wbartgalf`m gaxid ~radxgh j` jwwhwwlh`t tbjt cjfiw ta dh~fgt tbh ohbjsfar ac

~aiftfgji rfwe cjgtarw jt tbh htrhlh tjfiw ac j dfwtrfoxtfa`.

J` jithr`jtfsh rhmrhwwfa` thgb`fzxh) zxj`tfih rhmrhwwfa`) fw mra}f`m f` ~a~x,

ijrftv.8 Zxj`tfih rhmrhwwfa` gj~txrhw tbh `a`,if`hjr rhijtfa`wbf~w oht}hh` sjrfjoihw

j`d tbhrhov ~rasfdhw j ohtthr gbjrjgthrf{jtfa` ac tbh f`cixh`gh ac f`dh~h`dh`t

sjrfjoihw) ~jrtfgxijriv jt tbh htrhlh h`dw ac j dfwtrfoxtfa` j`d tbjt) ta rhfthrjth) fw

hjgtiv }bhrh ~rhgfwfa` fw `hhdhd }bh` tbh jfl fw ta dhthrlf`h sjixh,jt,rfwe.3

Zxj`tfih rhmrhwwfa` jggal~ifwbhw tbfw gbjrjgthrf{jtfa` ov ladhif`m tbh ga`df,tfa`ji zxj`tfihw ar ~hrgh`tfihw jw j cx`gtfa` ac tbh h~ij`jtarv sjrfjoihw rjtbhr tbj`

rhivf`m a` tbh ga`dftfa`ji lhj` ladhi ac AIW. Tbh ojwfg ~rhlfwh ohbf`d zxj`tfih

rhmrhwwfa` fw tbjt tbh h~ij`jtarv sjrfjoihw fl~jgt tbh dfwtrfoxtfa` ac rhtxr`w

dfcchrh`tiv j`d f` j `a`,if`hjr cjwbfa`) dh~h`df`m a` tbh zxj`tfih ac tbh rhtxr`

dfwtrfoxtfa` tbjt fw ac f`thrhwt. Zxj`tfih rhmrhwwfa` thgb`fzxhw ~radxgh tbh wjlh

rhwxitw jw AIW fc) jw AIW jwwxlhw) tbh fl~jgt ac tbh h~ij`jtarv sjrfjoihw fw

ga`wfwth`t jgraww tbh dfwtrfoxtfa` ac tbh sjixh ac tbh f`shwtlh`t.

Ta jwwhww tbh rhijtfsh jofiftv ac zxj`tfih rhmrhwwfa` j`d AIW rhmrhwwfa` ta

jggax`t car tbh ohbjsfar ac ~aiftfgji rfwe cjgtarw jt tbh htrhlhw) }h ga`wtrxgthdtbrhh tv~hw ac ~artcaifaw; h`thr~rfwh ~artcaifaw) dhshia~hd gax`trv ~artcaifaw) j`d

hlhrmf`m gax`trv ~artcaifaw. Hjgb wht gashrhd tbh vhjrw :664 ta ?>>3 j`d

Cfmxrh 4X@DH_WTJ@DF@M SJIXH JT _FWE

"f` tbaxwj`d daiijrw&

TBH KAX_@JI AC H@H_MV J@D DHSHIA^LH@T??4


9/14

galof`hd tbh LWGF djtj dhwgrfohd hjrifhr }ftb tbh ~aiftfgji rfwe rjèf`mw cral tbh

F`thr`jtfa`ji Gax`trv _fwe Mxfdh "FG_M& ac tbh ga`wxitf`m whrsfgh) ^_W.= F` }bjt

caiia}w }h }fii dhwgrfoh tbh FG_M j`d tbh` tbh j~~rajgb }h xwhd ta thwt tbh

rhijtfsh wh`wftfsftv ac AIW sw. zxj`tfih rhmrhwwfa`.

Tbh FG_M; Tbh FG_M bjw ga`tf`xaxwiv ~rasfdhd rfwe jwwhwwlh`tw ac f`df,

sfdxji gax`trfhw car j wfm`fcfgj`t ~hrfad ac tflh j`d fw a`h ac tbh wtj`djrd waxrghw

car wxgb f`carljtfa` f` tbh ~xoifwbhd ifthrjtxrh. F` tbh FG_M jwwhwwlh`t ac j`v

gax`trv) ~aiftfgji rfwe fw tbh }hfmbthd wxl ac t}hish gal~a`h`tw. Tbh gal~a`h`tw

j`d tbh }hfmbtw jrh dfw~ijvhd f` tjoih :.

Ga`wtrxgtf`m ârtcaifaw; Jw àthd ~rhsfaxwiv) }h ga`wtrxgthd tbrhh tv~hw ac

~artcaifaw; dhshia~hd) hlhrmf`m) j`d h`thr~rfwh. Tbh cfrwt t}a) jw tbhfr `jlhw

ga`àth) ga`wfwthd ac LWGF baidf`mw f` dhshia~hd ar hlhrmf`m gax`trfhw. ]bjt

}h jrh gjiif`m tbh h`thr~rfwh ~artcaifa fw larh ac j oih`d ac baidf`mw. Axr jfl fw) jt

ihjwt raxmbiv) ta rhcihgt tbh ohbjsfar ac j cfrl ojwhd f` j dhshia~hd gax`trv oxt

whhef`m ta h~j`d ftw f`shwtlh`tw f` hlhrmf`m ljrehtw.

Ta ga`wtrxgt axr h`thr~rfwh ~artcaifaw) }h wtjrthd cral tbh ~rhlfwh tbjt tbh

f`ftfji ~artcaifa }axid ga`wfwt ac j oih`d ac LWGF baidf`mw aotjf`hd => ~hrgh`t

cral tbh balh gax`trv "}bhrh tbh balh gax`trv fw j dhshia~hd `jtfa`&) ?>

~hrgh`t cral atbhr dhshia~hd) j`d :> ~hrgh`t cral hlhrmf`m. ]h cxrtbhr jwwxlhd

tbjt tbfw ~artcaifa }axid oh jdkxwthd a` j` j``xji ojwfw) jw j carhfm` dfrhgt f`shwtarlfmbt jiiagjth gj~ftji h~h`dftxrhw dxrf`m j` j``xji oxdmht rhsfh} ~raghww.

Tjoih :MHAÂIFTFGJI _FWE SJ_FJOIHW

Whzxh`gh âiftfgji _fwe Gal~a`h`tw âf`tw "lj&

J Mashr`lh`t wtjofiftv :?

O Wagfahgaàlfg ga`dftfa`w :?G F`shwtlh`t ~racfih :?

D F`thr`ji ga`cifgt :?

H Hthr`ji ga`cifgt :?

C Garrx~tfa` 3

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B _hifmfa` f` ~aiftfgw 3

F Ij} j`d ardhr 3

K Htb`fg th`wfa`w 3

E Dhlagrjtfg jggax`tjofiftv 3

I Oxrhjxgrjgv zxjiftv 4

Tatji :>>

Waxrgh; ^_W Mrax~) F`g.) F`thr`jtfa`ji Gax`trv _fwe Mxfdh) jsjfijoih jt }}}.~rwmrax~.gal.



10/14

Dxrf`m tbfw jdkxwtlh`t tbrhh dhgfwfa`w jrh jsjfijoih. W~hgfcfgjiiv) xwf`m j ~rao,

jofifwtfg dhgfwfa`,rxih,ojwhd j~~rajgb car j`v ~artcaifa) j dhgfwfa` }axid oh ljdh

":& àtta dfshrwfcv tbh f`ftfji baidf`m ar "?& ta dfshrwfcv tbh f`ftfji baidf`mw. Fc tbh

a~tfa` whihgthd fw ta dfshrwfcv "? joash&) tbh` ~raojofiftv,ojwhd axtgalhw }axid

oh xwhd ta dhthrlf`h }bhtbhr cxrtbhr dfshrwfcfgjtfa` }axid oh ljdh f` dhshi,a~hd ar hlhrmf`m ljrehtw. Car hjgb vhjr) }h wflxijthd 8)>>> ~artcaifaw car

hjgb ac tbh tbrhh tv~hw) ar 3>)>>> car hjgb ac tbh :? vhjrw ":663,?>>=& car j tatji

ac :2>)>>> wflxijthd ~artcaifaw. J cia}gbjrt ac axr wflxijtfa` fw ~rasfdhd f`

cfmxrh 8.

Cfmxrh 3 wba}w tbh dfwtrfoxtfa` ac wflxijthd rhtxr`w car hjgb ac tbh tbrhh tv~hw

ac ~artcaifaw. ^hrbj~w àt wxr~rfwf`miv) ac tbh tbrhh ~artcaifaw tbh hlhrmf`m ~art,

caifa wba}hd tbh bfmbhwt saijtfiftv }bfih) rhijtfsh ta tbh hlhrmf`m ~artcaifa) tbh

h`thr~rfwh j`d dhshia~hd ~artcaifaw hbfofthd ia}hr j`d gal~jrjoih saijtfiftv ihshiw.

Saijtfiftv j`d âiftfgji _fwe; A`h gal~a`h`t ac tbh FG_M ~rasfdhw j` hjl~ih

ac tbh ~raoihl ac rhivf`m a` AIW jw a~~awhd ta zxj`tfih rhmrhwwfa` hwtfljthw. F`

tbh FG_M rjtf`mw) tbh rfwe gal~a`h`tf`shwtlh`t ~racfihfw mfsh` j }hfmbt

ac :? ~af`tw j`d ftwhic ga`wfwtw ac tbrhh wxogal~a`h`tw; ga`trjgt sfjofiftv!h~ra,

~rfjtfa`) ~racftw rh~jtrfjtfa`) j`d ~jvlh`t dhijvw) hjgb ac }bfgb fw }artb caxr

~af`tw. Tbh bfmbhr tbh wgarh) tbh wtra`mhr tbh gax`trvw f`shwtlh`t ~racfih.

Tjoih ? dfw~ijvw tbh SJ_ jwwagfjthd }ftb sjrvf`m wgarhw a` j` f`shwtlh`t

~racfih) tbjt fw) cral gax`trfhw rhghfsf`m j rjè ac caxr ta tbawh rhghfsf`m j :?)

Cfmxrh 8DHWFM@ ^_AGHWW CA_ WFLXIJTF@M H@TH_^_FWH Â_TCAIFAW

WFLXIJTFA@ WGBHLJTFG



11/14

}bhrh tbh SJ_ fw aotjf`hd xwf`m hftbhr AIW ar zxj`tfih rhmrhwwfa`. Jw tbh tjoih

wba}w) }ftb j $:,lfiifa` daiijr f`shwtlh`t f` j gax`trv wgarf`m j caxr a` tbh

f`shwtlh`t ~racfih "tbh ia}hwt wgarh ~awwfoih&) j` f`shwtar bjw j 8,~hrgh`t gbj`gh

ac iawf`m $4:=)>>> }bh` tbh SJ_ fw aotjf`hd xwf`m zxj`tfih rhmrhwwfa`. Xwf`m tbh

larh ga`sh`tfa`ji AIW rhmrhwwfa`) tbjt iaww }axid oh hwtfljthd jt $?=:)>>>) j

:84,~hrgh`t x`dhrsjixjtfa` ac tbh rfwe. A` tbh atbhr bj`d) tbh x~wfdh jsjfijoih

f` tbh rhljf`f`m 8 ~hrgh`t ac tbh dfwtrfoxtfa` fw walh}bjt bfmbhr }bh` dhrfshdcral zxj`tfih rhmrhwwfa` tbj` cral AIW rhmrhwwfa`.

Jt tbh atbhr h`d ac tbh f`shwtlh`t ~racfih) }ftb gax`trfhw wgarf`m j :?)

zxj`tfih rhmrhwwfa` hwtfljthw j wljiihr da}`wfdh rfwe jt tbh 68tb ~hrgh tfih

",$:47)?2= sw. ,$7?8):7?&) oxt j rhijtfshiv wljiihr x~wfdh mjf` ohva`d tbjt

"$=7):?7 sw. $?=>)7=4&.

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jrtfcjgt ac tbh thgb`fzxhw. _jtbhr) tbh dfcchrh`ghw wthl cral tbh cjgt tbjt tbh

dfwtrfoxtfa` ac h~ij`jtarv sjrfjoihw f` tbh djtj }h hjlf`hd fw àt ga`wfwth`t }ftb

tbh x`dhrivf`m jwwxl~tfa`w rhzxfrhd ov tbh AIW j~~rajgb) w~hgfcfgjiiv tbhjwwxl~tfa` tbjt tbh ~aiftfgji rfwe sjrfjoihw ohbjsh ga`wfwth`tiv jgraww tbh dfw,

trfoxtfa` ac tbh f`shwtlh`t.

Cfmxrh 3OAR ÎATW DH^FGTF@M TBH DFWT_FOXTFA@ AC WFLXIJTHD Â_TCAIFAW;

DHSHIA^HD "D&) HLH_MF@M "H&) J@D H@TH_^_FWH "T&)

:668,?>>> J@D ?>>:,?>>3

H@TH_^_FWH J@D ÂIFTFGJI _FWE LJ@JMHLH@T ??=


12/14

Ga`gixdf`m Aowhrsjtfa`w

F` rhljrew ohcarh Tbh Hgaàlfg Gixo ac @h} Vare) Tflatbv C. Mhftb`hr)

^rhwfdh`t j`d Gbfhc Hhgxtfsh Accfghr ac tbh Chdhrji _hwhrsh Ojè ac @h} Vare)

~rasfdhd oatb j` h~ij`jtfa` jw ta }bv) jt ihjwt wf`gh tbh wxllhr ac ?>>=) tbh

miaoji cf`j`gfji wvwthl bjw ohh` wa crjmfih j`d j wht ac rhgallh`djtfa`w ta rhdxghtbh sxi`hrjofiftv ac tbh wvwthl. @at wxr~rfwf`miv) Lr. Mhftb`hrw h~ij`jtfa` ac

}bv ljrehtw bjsh hbfofthd wxgb crjmfiftv f`saishw j rj`mh ac cjgtarw) walh ac

}bfgb) ifeh tbh grhjtfa` ac ia},zxjiftv lartmjmh whgxrftfhw) ljv oh x`fzxh ta tbfw

~jrtfgxijr grfwfw. Bh cxrtbhr dhwgrfohd j cx`djlh`tji ~raoihl bjl~hrf`m rfwe

lj`jmhlh`t j`d ashrwfmbt mh`hrjiiv;

_fwe lj`jmhlh`t j`d ashrwfmbt à} cagxwhw taa lxgb a` tbh fdfawv`grjtfg rfwe tbjt jcchgtw j`

f`dfsfdxji cfrl j`d taa ifttih a` tbh wvwthljtfg fwwxhw tbjt gaxid jcchgt ljreht ifzxfdftv jw j

}baih. Ta ~xt ft walh}bjt dfcchrh`tiv) tbh ga`sh`tfa`ji rfwe,lj`jmhlh`t crjlh}are tadjvcagxwhw taa lxgb a` tbh tbrhjt ta j cfrl cral ftw a}` lfwtjehw j`d taa ifttih a` tbh ~ath`tfji

car lfwtjehw ta oh garrhijthd jgraww cfrlw. Ft fw taa ga`cfdh`t Uta jwwxlh\ tbjt j cfrl gj` jdkxwt

ta ~rathgt ftwhic cral ftw a}` lfwtjehw }ftbaxt jddf`m ta da}`}jrd ~rhwwxrh a` ljrehtw j`d

tjehw taa ifttih jggax`t ac tbh rfwe ac j cifmbt ta wjchtvj orajd,ojwhd) ljreht}fdh rxwb car tbh

hftw. . . .2

Tbh ~raoihl fw àt x`fzxh ta cf`j`gfji ljrehtw. Carhfm` dfrhgt f`shwtarw f` tbh

h`hrmv f`dxwtrv j`d tbh whrsfgh gal~j`fhw tbjt wx~~art tbhl gj` chhi tbh hcchgtw ac

tbh garrhijtfa`w jgraww cfrlw dhwgrfohd ov Lr. Mhftb`hr. Ga`wfwth`t }ftb tbjt

sfh}) }h ~rasfdhd) f` tbh cfrwt ~jrt ac tbfw ~j~hr) wx~~art car tbh ga`th`tfa` tbjt) f`tbh jwwhwwlh`t ac ~aiftfgji rfwe jt tbh ~rakhgt ihshi) ft fw fl~artj`t ta ga`wfdhr tbh

~awwfofiftv tbjt cjgtarw axtwfdh ac j`d x`rhijthd ta tbh hgaàlfgw ac tbh ~rakhgt

Tjoih ?SJIXH JT _FWE "SJ_& GAL^J_FWA@W GAL^XTHD ]FTB T_JDFTFA@JI A_DF@J_V

IHJWT WZXJ_HW "AIW& J@D TBH _HGALLH@DHD ZXJ@TFIH _HM_HWWFA@

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Iaww Mjf`

Wgarh Garrhgt SJ_ AIW Garrhgt SJ_ AIW

âar f`shwtlh`t ~racfih

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:? ,$:47)?2= ,$7?8):7? $=7):?7 $?=>)7=4



13/14

ftwhic ljv jdshrwhiv) jiohft f`dfrhgtiv) jcchgt tbh sjixh ac tbh ~rakhgt. Tbfw ~awwf,

ofiftv wthlw cral tbh f`grhjwf`m garrhijtfa` jgraww ljrehtw ashr tflh.

Fc dfshrwfcvf`m ~aiftfgji rfwe fw j` hixwfsh zxhwt f` bfmbiv garrhijthd ljrehtw)

tbh` ft ohgalhw hsh` larh fl~artj`t ta x`dhrwtj`d tbh sjixh jt rfwe f` j ~artcaifa.

Tbfw fw ~jrtfgxijriv tbh gjwh }bh` wa,gjiihd htrhlh hsh`tw tjeh ~ijgh. Jw jmh`hrji aowhrsjtfa`) }h àth tbjt) kxwt jw tbhrh jrh ~ha~ih }ba }f` tbh iatthrv) wa

taa f` tbh cf`j`gfji jrh`j; htrhlh hsh`tw bj~~h`) hsh` ta wljrt ~ha~ih. Ia`m,

Thrl Gj~ftji Lj`jmhlh`t) dhw~fth tbh wa~bfwtfgjtfa` ac ftw lj`jmhlh`t) dfw,

gashrhd tbjt tbh tjfiw ac tbh dfwtrfoxtfa` ac tbhfr gal~ih ~artcaifa }hrh cjtthr

tbj` tbhv bjd h~hgthd.6

Ardf`jrv ihjwt wzxjrhw bjw whrshd jw tbh wtj`djrd j~~rajgb car dhthrlf`f`m

sjixh jt rfwe. Vht jt tbh htrhlhw) AIW bjw wbartgalf`mw. AIW jwwxlhw tbjt

sjrfjoihw) cjr rhlashd cral tbh lhj` ac tbh dfwtrfoxtfa`) à`htbhihww hbfoft

ohbjsfar ga`dftfa`ji a` tbjt lhj`. Tbh zxj`tfih rhmrhwwfa` thgb`fzxh hl~iavhd f`

axr j`jivwfw dahw àt rhiv a` tbjt rhwtrfgtfa`5 rjtbhr) ft jiia}w car tbh shrv rhji

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x~a` tbh zxj`tfih ohf`m hjlf`hd. F` a`h ac axr hjl~ihw joash) rhifj`gh a` AIW

x`dhrsjixhd ov :84 ~hrgh`t tbh ~ath`tfji iaww ta j` f`shwtar jt tbh 68tb ~hrgh`tfih

ihshi.

^hrbj~w ft fw }artb rh~hjtf`m tbjt zxj`tfih rhmrhwwfa` fw àt dhwfm`hd ar ofjwhd

ta ~rasfdh j bfmbhr SJ_ jt htrhlh h`dw ac tbh dfwtrfoxtfa` tbj` AIW. _hgjii tbjt

zxj`tfih rhmrhwwfa` wba}hd j bfmbhr x~wfdh jt tbh 68 ~hrgh`tfih ihshi f` a`h ac axrhjl~ihw. Larhashr) fc tbh sjrfjoihw jt tbh htrhlhw ac j dfwtrfoxtfa` ohbjsh jw

jwwxlhd ov tbh AIW thgb`fzxh) tbh` zxj`tfih rhmrhwwfa` }fii hwtfljth j SJ_

fdh`tfgji ta tbjt hwtfljthd ov AIW. ]bjt axr j`jivwfw wba}hd }jw tbjt tbh sjrf,

joihw jt tbh htrhlh ac j dfwtrfoxtfa` da àt ji}jvw ohbjsh f` j lj``hr ga`wfwth`t

}ftb tbh jwwxl~tfa`w ac AIW. Zxj`tfih rhmrhwwfa` gj` gj~txrh tbjt dfcchrh`gh.

]h rhjdfiv jgeà}ihdmh tbjt jddftfa`ji rhwhjrgb `hhdw ta oh da`h ta ~raoh

cxrtbhr tbh f`thr,gax`trv garrhijtfa`w }h aowhrsh f` tbh LWGF djtj. Jitbaxmb

miaoji ljrehtw jw rh~rhwh`thd f` tbh LWGF djtj bjsh hbfofthd bfmbhr ~awftfsh

garrhijtfa`w ashr tflh) }h bjsh àt waxmbt ta dhthrlf`h ba} }hii h`hrmv gal,~j`fhw j`d h`hrmv whrsfgh gal~j`fhw jw j wxowht ac tbh LWGF garrhijth }ftb tbh

LWGF ftwhic jgraww tbh rj`mh ac gjthmarfhw }h dhwgrfohd. Car hjl~ih) fc f`shwtarw

ohgalh ga`sf`ghd tbjt tbh gxrrh`t ~rfgh h`sfra`lh`t fw ifehiv ta ~hrwfwt "whttf`m

jwfdh car à} tbh dhcf`ftfa` ac ~hrwfwtw&) ft ljv }hii oh tbh gjwh tbjt gal~j`fhw

f` tbh h`hrmv whgtar gaxid hbfoft f`shrwh garrhijtfa`w }ftb tbh f`dh ashrjii)

tbaxmb ~awftfsh garrhijtfa`w jla`m tbhlwhishw. Ft fw ~hrbj~w taa waa` ta h~iarh

tbjt ~awwfofiftv) oxt ft }axid ghrtjfìv whhl ta }jrrj`t j`jivwfw f` tbh cxtxrh.

Jw wtjthd jt tbh axtwht) ~aiftfgji rfwe fw àtbf`m `h} ta tbh h`hrmv f`dxwtrv.

Ba}hshr) ft bjw hsaishd ashr tflh. Tfmbtiv ga``hgthd miaoji ljrehtw ljeh ftdfccfgxit car j gal~j`v ta j~~hjr bhdmhd jmjf`wt da}`wfdh) joash mrax`d

"~aiftfgji& rfwe) ar x`fzxhiv ~awftfa`hd ta whf{h ~aiftfgji a~~artx`ftfhw. Kxwt jw



14/14

~aiftfgji rfwe bjw hsaishd) wa taa bjsh tbh taaiw jsjfijoih ta jwwhww ft. Tbh

jwwhwwlh`t ac ~aiftfgji rfwe rhljf`w j dfccfgxit j`d dv`jlfg tjwe car tbh h`hrmv

f`dxwtrv. Vht ft fw cjr taa fl~artj`t ta `hmihgt j`d cjr taa fl~artj`t ta tjgeih }ftb

j`v oxt tbh ohwt j`jivtfgji taaiw jsjfijoih.

@ATHW

:@fjii Chrmxwa`) Tbh Gjwb @hxw; La`hv j`d â}hr f` tbh Ladhr` ]arid) :=>> ?>>> "@h}

Vare; _j`dal Baxwh)& ~. :7.

?Gal~j`fhw j`d whrsfghw }aref`m f` tbh ~aiftfgji rfwe jrhj f`gixdh; Tbh Hgaàlfwt F`thiifmh`gh

X`ftw "HFXw& gax`trv rfwe whrsfghw5 Ljrwb) ~jrt ac tbh Ljrwb # LgIh``j` Gal~j`fhw "@VWH;

LLG&5 Miaoji F`wfmbt) ~jrtfgxijriv ftw gax`trv f`thiifmh`gh ~radxgtw5 FBW "@VWH; FBW&5 j`d tbh

jiifj`gh ac ^rfgh}jthrbaxwhGaa~hrw j`d tbh Hxrjwfj Mrax~.

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jgthrfwtfgw ac tbh LWGF jcthr tbh tflh tbfw }jw }rftth` "@ashlohr ?>>2&.

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tbh H`sfra`lh`t "Oagj _jta`) Ciarfdj; Gbj~lj` # Bjii!G_G) ?>>4&) ~. 3.

8_amhr Eahèhr) Zxj`tfih _hmrhwwfa ) Hgaàlhtrfg Wagfhtv Laàmrj~bw "@h} Vare; Gjl,

orfdmh X`fshrwftv ^rhww) ?>>8& j`d _jxi J. Ojrrhta j`d J`tba`v ]. Bxmbhw) X`dhr ^hrcarlhrw

j`d Ashr Jgbfhshrw; J Zxj`tfih _hmrhwwfa` J`jivwfw ac Mra}tb) Hgaàlfg _hgard) Ljrgb ?>>4)

~~. :=,78.

3_xhv Twjv) J`jivwfw ac Cf`j`gfji Tflh Whrfhw "Baoaeh`) @h} Khrwhv; ]fihv F`thrwgfh`gh)

?>>8&) gbj~thr =.

=F`thr`jtfa`ji Gax`trv _fwe Mxfdh fw j ~radxgt ac tbh ^_W Mrax~) F`g.) }bfgb bjw ohh` rjtf`m

gax`trfhw wf`gh :62>. Tbh ^_W }ho wfth fw }}}.~rw.gal.

2Tflatbv C. Mhftb`hr) jsjfijoih jt }}}.`v.cro.arm!`h}whsh`tw!w~hhgbhw!?>>2!tcm>2>3>6.

6_amhr Ia}h`wthf`) ]bh` Mh`fxw Cjfihd; Tbh _fwh j`d Cjii ac Ia`m,Thrl Gj~ftji Lj`jmhlh`t

"@h} Vare; Ojwfg Oaaew) ?>>:& ~~. :=7 j`d :22.

TBH KAX_@JI AC H@H_MV J@D DHSHIA^LH@T?7>

Enterprise and Political Risk Management in Complex Systems by K. Ensor, L. Kyj, & G. C. Marfin

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Transcript of Enterprise and Political Risk Management in Complex Systems by K. Ensor, L. Kyj, & G. C. Marfin