Rangan Banerjee

Dept. of Energy Science and Engineering

IIT Bombay

Energy Systems and Sustainability: a perspective

Invited Talk at Eaton Centre of Excellence Pune, July 7, 2017

2

Barbegal 4 AD

http://www.waterhistory.org/histories/barbegal/

3http://www.fordendwatermill.co.uk/guide.html

4

Panemone

http://www.telosnet.com/wind/early.html

Water Pumping by Wind

Chinese sail type wind mill

5

Brush wind turbine; Dia.17m,

Tower 18.3m

12 kW Electric power 1888

6

Adams Solar Cooker – 1878 Mumbai

7

“The rations of seven soldiers, consisting of meat and vegetables, are thoroughly cooked by it in two hours, in January, the coldest month of the year in Bombay, and the men declare the food to be cooked much better than in the ordinary manner.”W. Adams, 1878

http://energyprofessionalsymposium.com/?p=5693

Eight Mirrors –Octagonal reflector

http://home.cc.umanitoba.ca/~vsmil/graphics/energy/energyconsumption.htm8

Historical Energy Transitions –Example- USA

9http://www.trunity.net/the-energy-library/view/article/209627/ Source: C. Cleveland

Global Share of Primary Energy mix

Source: GEA, 2012 10

Transitions in Energy Use

Source: Grubler 2004

11

Sustainable Development?

Is our present consumption and growth pattern sustainable? Can we continue this into the future?

12

Global Trends – Unbounded Growth?

GEA Ch 3 13

What is sustainable Development?

14

Development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.Brundtlant Report WCED 1987Development without cheating our children

15

Are our energy systems sustainable?

16Rockstrom et al, Nature 2009

Long term global temperature record

17Rockstrom et al, Nature 2009

Carbon Dioxide Concentrations

18http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/co2/graphics/lawdome.gif

19http://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu/graphics_gallery/mauna_loa_record/mauna_loa_record

Recent Carbon dioxide concentrations

20https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/

Renewable Energy Options

Wind

Solar Small

Hydro Biomass

Tidal

Energy

Wave Energy

Ocean Thermal

Energy

Solar Thermal

Solar

Photovoltaic

Geothermal*

21

Wind farms

22

Largest 1550 MW Onshore Texas

Vestas 8 MW164 m rotor diameter

The world's second full-scale floating wind turbine WindFloat, operating at rated capacity (2 MW) approximately 5 km offshore of Aguçadoura, Portugal

Building Integrated PV

23

Roofed walkway with HeliaFilm® at the Seletar Airport b

Singapore

Entrance canopy of CleanTech Park 2,

Singapore

30 m2

flexible 7%

Organic PV 12%

24

Printed PV

25

VICOSC’s new solar cell printer installed at CSIRO

Renewable Potential

How do we estimate the potential ?

Flows/Fluxes – Not stocks

Technical/ Economic Potential

Spatial Distribution of resource

Daily/Seasonal Variation

Uncertainty

26

Source: IPCC, 2011 27

Learning Curve for Renewables

28IPCC, 2012

Estimated Renewable Energy Share of Global Electricity Production, End–2015

29Source: Renewables, Global Status Report (GSR) 2016

Renewable Power Capacities* in World, EU-28, BRICS and Top Seven Countries, End-2015

30

*Not including HydropowerThe five BRICS countries are Brazil, the Russian Federation, India, China and South Africa

Source: Renewables, Global Status Report (GSR) 2016

Investment in Power Capacity – Renewable, Fossil Fuel and Nuclear, 2008-2015, $BN

31Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 2016

History Of Electric Power Generation

32

100 kW DC

Power

Systems

Edison

1880

1882

Darjeeling Power

Station 13 kW

Hydro power

station

1896

1948

2015

1914

19811

900

1931

1965

2000

1895

Emambagh

Power Station –

CESC – Thermal

power station

1,362

MW

19471899

1964-69

Tarapur –

1st Nuclear

power plant

(2x160MW

=320MW)

Westinghouse,

Tesla-AC

power plant

TATA

Power

4000 MW

Power

plant,

Gujarat

2013

Damodar

Valley

Corporation &

Electricity

Supply Act

formed by

Govt. of India

Total

Installed

capacity-

1713MW

(15kWh/

capita)

1950

JNNSM

2010

Rajastan –

Atomic Power

Plant(300MW

+4x220MW)

Kaiga

Generating

Station-

(4x220MW

)

Kudankulam

-1000 MW

2014

India and World (Selected Indicators for 2014)

Population 1295.29 million 7249 million

GDP (PPP) 6902.09 Billion 2010 US$ 101462.90 Billion 2010 US$

Primary Energy 34.53 EJ 573.56 EJ

Energy/person 26.78 GJ/person/year 79.08 GJ/person/year

Electricity/person 800 kWh/capita/year 3030 kWh/capita/year

CO2 emissions

Per person

Per GDP

2019.67 Million tonnes 32381.04 Million tonnes

1.56 tonnes /capita/year 4.47 tonnes /capita/year

0.29 kg /US$ ppp 0.32 kg /US$ ppp

33Source: IEA, Key World Energy Statistics 2016

34

During the last 40 years the share of renewables in electricity generation in India?

I) Has doubled from its earlier valueII) Has remained almost constantIII) Has decreasedIV) Has increased by 10%V) None of the above

35

India’s INDC

#1 Reduce Emissions Intensity of GDP by 33-35% of 2005 level in 2030

#2 Create 40% cumulative non fossil power by installed capacity by 2030 (using finance from Green Climate Fund)

#3 Create an additional carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent through additional tree cover and forest

36

Primary Energy Mix

37

13

AustraliaSwitzerland

2013 India

United States

0.000

0.100

0.200

0.300

0.400

0.500

0.600

0.700

0.800

0.900

1.000

0 5000 10000 15000

Hum

an D

evelo

pm

ent

Index (

HD

I)

Annual Electricity consumption/ capita (kWh)

HDI and Electricity consumption (2013)

World

2035 India

1980 India

Netherlands

Russia

Pakistan

0.80-0.93

0.71 - 0.8

Very High HDI

High HDI

Medium HDI

Low HDI

0.57 - 0.70

0.41 - 0.55

38

Installed Capacity - India

303070 MW All India installed capacity

Source: GOI, Ministry of Power, India (powermin.nic.in)

43086 MW Total Renewable installed capacity

2016 (as on 30.04.16)

Coal, 185993Nuclear,

5780

Natural Gas, 24509

Hydro (Res.), 41267

Diesel, 919

Renewables (Res.), 43086

Wind power, 26867

Small Hydro power, 4275

Biomass & Bagasse,

4831

Waste to Power, 115

Solar Power , 6998

Source: MNRE, Govt. of India (www.mnre.gov.in)

39

2016-17 shares - Installed Capacity and Generation

326848 MW All India installed capacity

Source: GOI, Ministry of Power, New Delhi, India GOI, Ministry of Power, Central Electricity Authority, New Delhi, India

Coal, 192163, 59%

Nuclear, 6780, 2%

Natural Gas, 25329, 8%

Hydro (Res.), 41267

Diesel, 838, 0%

Renewables, 57260, 17%

Thermal994.2302

80%

Nuclear37.9159

3%

Hydro122.3776

10%

Renewable 81.8687

7%

Bhutan (import)5.6173

0%

1242 BU All India generation

40

Renewable share?

41

What will be the future supply mix for the Electricity sector ?

How much can renewables and nuclear supply?

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Renewable Installed Capacity

Renewable Generation

Nuclear generation Nuclear Installed Capacity

Renewable Share in Power

42

43

Renewable installed capacity and generation

*as on 31.03.2017 MNRE website: www.mnre.gov.in

Installed

Capacity*

Estimated

Capacity factor

Estimated

Generation

(GWh) (MW)

Wind 32280 14% 39588

Biomass & Bagasse 8182 50% 35833

Small Hydro 4380 40% 15349

Waste to Energy 115 50% 504

Solar PV 12289 19% 20445

Total 57244 25% 111,729

Renewable Generation 2015-16

Source: Prayas Oct 2016 India’s journey towards 175 GW44

Coal Power plants PLF

45

Supply Scenarios for 2035 Electricity-High Renewables

Supply Scenario

Green (Coal Low,

Nuclear High,

Renewables

Moderately High )

Projections for 2035 Coal

Natural

Gas Diesel Nuclear Hydro

Renewabl

es

Tota

l

% Electricity Supply

Share 40% 12% 2% 13% 11% 22%

100

%

Electricity Supply/

year (in billion kWh) 1530 459 76 497 421 841 3824

Average Load Factor 70% 70% 16% 70% 38% 26%

Installed Capacity (in

GW) 249 75 55 81 126 369 956

46

Power Generation – Supply mix

Thermal NuclearRenewables and Hydro

47

Power Generation – Supply mixThermal NuclearRenewables and Hydro

48

Power Generation – Supply mix

Thermal NuclearRenewables and Hydro

49

50

Comparison of Supply technologies

GenerationTechnology

SIZERANGE(GW)

COSTCrores/ MW

Rs/kWh

CAPACITY FACTOR

AREA(m2/GWh)

CO2

Equivalent(gC02/kWh)

WATERl/MWh

COAL 0.1-4 5-6 3.5 0.8-0.9 200-400 820 1000

CCGT 0.1-1.5 4-5 3 0.5 -0.8 100 490 500

SOLAR PV 0.001-0.75

5-7 5.5 0.25 385 48 100

SOLARTHERMAL

0.01-0.5 10-15 12 0.25-0.29 300 48 3500

HYDRO 2.4-0.1 5-6 2.5-3.0

0.38-0.5 1374 24 17000

NUCLEAR 9.9-0.44 6.5-8 6-7 0.8-0.9 120 12 1000

WIND 1-0.1 6 4.5 -5.0

0.25 125 11 0

http://www.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/files/file/solar%20energy%20in%20India.pdf

Variation in Solar Price Bids

51

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

Ta

riff

Bid

Rs/k

Wh

Aus 6 c/kWh

Aus 10 c/kWh

Aus 20 c/kWh

World’s largest solar power plant

52

648 MW 4654 crore ~ Rs 7.2 crores/ MWArea 10 km2 Kamothi, Tamil NaduRobotics for automatic panel cleaningPlant built in 8 months

http://www.indiatimes.com/news/india/india-is-now-home-to-the-world-s-largest-solar-power-plant-it-s-big-enough-to-power-150-000-homes-266449.html

1 MW Solar Plant – IIT Bombay

53http://www.indiaprwire.com/pressrelease/education/20140128287038.htm

Daily Load Profile- India

54

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0 4 8 12 16 20 24

GW

Time of day (hours)

Jan-16

Non Fossil Electricity

175 GW Target Achievable

Low Capacity factors- High daily and seasonal variability

Financing issues – Initial capital –Reduction in GDP, Equity impacts

Need for R&D and indigenization

55

56

Gujarat Wind1st April 201622:47 pm

Gujarat Wind3rd March 201622:00 pm

Installed Capacity 3542 MW

California: Duck Curve

57

https://www.caiso.com/Documents/FlexibleResourcesHelpRenewables_FastFacts.pdf

Estimated Future Load Curve (2035)

58

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0 4 8 12 16 20 24

GW

Time of day (hours)

Jan- 2035

59

Are we reaching the limits to Energy Efficiency?

Thermodynamic Limits

Coal and coal products (21.5)

Crude, NGL, petroleum prod.

(13.6)

Natural gas (18.1)

Renewables (7.5)

Product

(44.6)

Loss

and

waste

(43.0)

Global

industrial

sector

Electricity (22.3)

Heat (4.6)

Total (87.6) Total

(87.6)

Coal and coal products (21.5)

Crude, NGL, petroleum prod.

(13.6)

Natural gas (18.1)

Renewables (7.5)

Product

(25.1)

Loss

and

waste

(59.2)

Global

industrial

sector

Electricity (22.3)

Heat (1.3)

Total (84.3) Total

(84.3)

Units in ExaJoules

Efficiency 51% Efficiency 30%

Energy Exergy

Source: Rosen, GEA 60

Industrial Energy Efficiency

Rangan Banerjee et al: Chapter 8, GEA

61

Energy Efficiency?

Does the metric remain relevant?

Consider other metrics also –Sustainability – water, emissions, land, cost

Input energy – renewable – not constrained

Embodied Energy, Embodied Carbon

Life Cycle Analysis, Energy Patback Period

Additional indices

62

Material Efficiency

63

Material Choice

64Allwood et al, 2011

Material Choice

65Allwood et al, 2011

Grid outage for different urban areas

Source: ESMI, Prayas

66

Baghru,

Jaipur

Garladinn

e,

Kundapur

, Udupi

Pandeypu

r, Varanasi

Jamui

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Baghru Garladinne Kundapur Pandeypur Jamui town

Jaipur Anantpur Udupi Varanasi Jamui

Ou

tage

du

rati

on

in h

ou

rs/d

ay

Urban location in IndiaJan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Average number of outage hours in a day for a location

Gram Oorja, Darewada ,Pune

Source: Minigrids Electricity for all, CSE, 2016

67

Husk Power – Biomass gasification system

Rice huskGasifierGas CleaningEngine

Monitoring Distribution network End load

Remote data monitoring Billing & Payment collection Intense making from ash

68

For a renewable microgrid scenario

Log of time in seconds

1 (t=0) 3 (t=15minutes) 5 (t=1day) 7.5 (t=1year)

Short term storage

Mid Term Storage Long term Storage

o Sudden fluctuation in load averaged over a second

o Load surges 4-8 times average load

o Context: Welding Load, lift load

o Load variation is averaged over 15 minutes

o Context - Residential Buildings with load shedding 2-3 hours

o Seasonal variation in load averaged over the day for an entire year

o Context - Variation in load like summer loads, winter loads

o Diurnal load variationo Load is averaged over the

hour for a dayo Context - Renewable

microgrid

Supercapacitor

69

Classification of Energy Storage Systems

Lithium Battery

Lead Acid Battery

FlywheelFuel Cell-Hydrogen Storage| Flow

batteries

70

Scenario 1(a): Isolated Rural with PV battery system

Energy Source Solar PV – 4.3kW

Storage Lead Acid battery – 19kWh

Connected Load

4.4 kW

DistributionVoltage

48V dc (Safety Voltage for distribution)

Boost

Converter

24-48V

MPPT

Charge

Controller

Battery

Bank

19kWh

48 VDC bus

Household

load 1 +

Farm 1

Household

load 2+

Farm 2

PV array

3.4kW

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1 6 11 16 21

Lo

ad

(W)

Time(hours)

Load Average load Peak load

Average Load = 0.5kWPeak Load = 2.0kWTotal Load = 4.4kWTotal Energy Consumption/day =

12.7kWh/day

Battery Life in climatic zones and per unit cost

Shillong

Bangalore

Chennai

Jodhpur

New Delhi

Jacob A. S., et al., 2016

71

National Solar Thermal Power Facility – Consortium supported by MNRE and led by IIT Bombay

Thermal Storage

Solar Field

Expansion Vessel

Heat Exchanger

Generator

Condenser

Turbine

PumpPump

Cooling Water Circuit

Water/ Steam Loop

ThermicOil Loop

CLFR Direct Steam

Schematic of 1 MW Solar Power PlantSimulator snapshot

Parabolic Trough Solar Field Linear Fresnel Reflector Solar Field at Gwalpahari site

Consortium Members

KIE Solatherm

72

73

74

74

Prototype for 24 x 7 Solar Thermal Power

Development of indigenous heliostat

Development of improved LFR with steam storage using PCM

Development of molten salt loop and stratified storage

75

Temperature

°C

1 290 Flow

2 550 Flow

3 550 No Flow

4 290 No Flow

Heat transfer fluid is molten salt

flow

condition

Heat Exchanger

Stratifiedmolten salt

Storage

Solar tower

1

2

3

4

Molten saltPump for tower

Molten saltPump for H.X

Water

Superheatedsteam

DESE- IIT Bombay

Partners: Clique Consultants, Mumbai

KGDS Renewable Energy, Coimbatore

Sponsored by NETRA –NTPC Ltd

TEAM SHUNYASOLAR DECATHLON EUROPE 2014

76

House in Versailles – 26th June, 2014

33

Team Shunya

70 students 13 disciplines 12 faculty

House assembly process

78

Team Shunya’s Solar House “H Naught”

79

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

Tota

l In

stal

led

Cap

acit

y o

f So

lar

and

Win

d E

ne

rgy

(GW

)

China USA India Japan Germany

Existing Capacity (GW) Targets for the Future (GW)

80

Plan Layout

81

82

A portion of the ELU map of Ward A of MCGM

Corresponding Satellite Imagery for the area from Google Earth

Analyzed in QGIS 1.8.0To determine-Building Footprint Ratios- Usable PV AreasFor Sample Buildings

Source: R. Singh and Banerjee, 2015

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

0:0

1-

1:0

0

1:0

1-

2:0

0

2:0

1-

3:0

0

3:0

1-

4:0

0

4:0

1-

5:0

0

5:0

1-

6:0

0

6:0

1-

7:0

0

7:0

1-

8:0

0

8:0

1-

9:0

0

9:0

1-1

0:0

0

10:0

1-1

1:0

0

11:0

1-1

2:0

0

12:0

1-1

3:0

0

13:0

1-1

4:0

0

14:0

1-1

5:0

0

15:0

1-1

6:0

0

16:0

1-1

7:0

0

17:0

1-1

8:0

0

18:0

1-1

9:0

0

19:0

1-2

0:0

0

20:0

1-2

1:0

0

21:0

1-2

2:0

0

22:0

1-2

3:0

0

23:0

1-2

4:0

0

MU

s

Jan, 2014 Typical Load Profile vsPV Generation

1-AxisTracking @Highest eff.1-AxixTracking @Median eff.19 deg. FixedTilt @ Highesteff.19 deg. FixedTilt @ Medianeff.Typical HourlyDemand, Jan2014

0.115

0.125

0.135

0.145

0.155

0.165

0.175

0.185

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Capacity Factor for Mumbai

1-Axis Tracking

Fixed Tilt @ 19deg.

Annual Averagewith 1-AxisTracking

Source: R. Singh and Banerjee, 201583

Summing Up

Present energy use pattern – mainly fossil fuel

Climate Change – major driving factor

Renewables – technically feasible, almost cost-effective

Transition – challenge and opportunity

Low Capacity factors- daily , seasonal variability,

Storage costs – problems with high penetration

Need for R&D and innovation

Redesign of products, Next Practices

Designer materials – Nano Technology, Bio-inspired materials

Future industrial growth- zero carbon growth 84

85

Acknowledgment

Balkrishna SurveTejal Kanitkar

Thank yourangan@iitb.ac.inrangan.banerjee@gmail.com

Solar power team+ Team Shunya

Rhythm Singh Pankaj Kumar

Jani Das Ajit Paul Abraham

References IEA, Key World Energy Statistics 2016, http://www.iea.org/statistics/statisticssearch/

GEA, 2012 Chapter 3 : Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable Future, Cambridge University Press,

Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.

Banerjee, R., et al., Chapter 8 - Energy End Use: Industry. In Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable Future,

Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA and the International Institute for Applied Systems

Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, pp. 513-574.

T. Kanitkar et al 2015: Tejal Kanitkar, Banerjee, R. Banerjee and T. Jayaraman, Impact of economic structure on

mitigation targets for developing countries, Volume 26, June 2015, 56–61, June 2015.

Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE), Government of India, New Delhi, website: www.mnre.gov.in

Ministry of Power, Government of India, http://powermin.nic.in/

R. Singh and Banerjee, 2015: Singh, R., and Banerjee, R., Estimation of rooftop solar photovoltaic potential of a city, Solar

Energy, Vol. 115, 589-602, May 2015.

Rockstrom et al, Nature 2009

http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/co2/graphics/lawdome.gif

Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 2016: Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2016.

A.Dave, T.Kanitkar and R.Banerjee Analysing Implications of India's Renewable Energy Targets, 2016 - draft

Renewables, Global Status Report (GSR) 2016: REN21 ‒ the Renewable Energy Policy Network for the 21st Century,

'Renewables 2016: Global Status Report', yearly publication since 2005.

IPCC, 2012: Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaption,

https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/srex/SREX_Full_Report.pdf

http://www.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/files/file/solar%20energy%20in%20India.pdf

http://www.indiatimes.com/news/india/india-is-now-home-to-the-world-s-largest-solar-power-plant-it-s-big-enough-to-

power-150-000-homes-266449.html86

References

Prayas Oct 2016: India’s journey towards 175 GW Renewables by 2022, Ashwin Gambhir et al., Prayas Energy

Group, October 2016. .

https://www.caiso.com/Documents/FlexibleResourcesHelpRenewables_FastFacts.pdf

ESMI, Prayas: Electricity Supply Monitoring initiative, Prayas Energy Group, http://www.watchyourpower.org/,

Minigrids Electricity for all, A Centre for Science and Environment Report, 2016;

http://www.cseindia.org/userfiles/mini-grids.pdf

Jacob A. S., et al., 2016: Jacob, A. S., Banerjee, R., Ghosh, P.C., Modelling and simulation of a PV battery grid

backup system for various climatic zones of India', Proceedings of 43rd IEEE Photovoltaic Specialists

Conference, PVSC 2016; Portland; United States; pp 1807-1812, Article number 7749934, June 5-10, 2016.

http://www.indiaprwire.com/pressrelease/education/20140128287038.htm

http://www.waterhistory.org/histories/barbegal/

http://www.fordendwatermill.co.uk/guide.html

http://www.telosnet.com/wind/early.html

http://energyprofessionalsymposium.com/?p=5693

http://home.cc.umanitoba.ca/~vsmil/graphics/energy/energyconsumption.htm

http://www.trunity.net/the-energy-library/view/article/209627/ Source: C. Cleveland

Grubler 2004: Transitions in Energy Use, Arnulf Grubler, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Laxenburg, Austria.

http://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu/graphics_gallery/mauna_loa_record/mauna_loa_record

https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/ 87