Energy Assurance
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Transcript of Energy Assurance
Energy Assurance
Gil Weigand
Strategic ProgramsComputing and Computational Sciences Directorate
December 10, 2007
2OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
U.S. Energy Production, Distribution and Consumption System is Complex
•Today the system is tightly balanced between supply and demand
•Disruptions impact economy, jobs, & U.S. competitiveness, and may lead to a recession
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Energy and Efficiency, U.S. Energy Flows 2002 (UCRL-TR-129990-02) https://eed.llnl.gov/flow/02flow.php
3OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
Avoidance of Costly Energy Disruptions = Energy Assurance
Energy Assurance is:
The ability to obtain, without costly disruption, the energy required by the United States in assured, economically viable ways to satisfy residential, commercial, and transportation requirements.
Disruptions to the Energy We Need Are Inevitable.
You Cannot Eliminate Disruptions! You Can, However, Make Their Impact Small.
4OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
Energy Assurance
EnergyProduction
Distribution
Consumption
Eco
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Secu
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Secu
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Energy Assurance
En
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Nati
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Energy Assurance Has Three Critical Parts
Energy Assurance Is Also A Complex Relationship Among Four Security Themes
5OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
Not All Elements Within These Security Themes Are Under U.S. Control
Eco
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En
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Energy Assurance
En
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y S
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Nati
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al Secu
rity Within
U.S. Control
Out ofU.S. Control
6OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
Prevailing Conditions Today
U.S. Energy Supply vs. Demand is very “tightly wound” and increasingly lacks the flexibility necessary to cope with inevitable disruptions and competition for supply
Environmental Security increasingly becoming a factor in energy consumption
All major candidates for President have stated the importance of a more independent energy supply and more efficient consumption and distribution of energy for the United States
The threats to Energy Assurance for the United States are increasing and are increasingly outside of U.S. control
Economic Growth and Energy Assurance are tightly linked
Cyber-based systems are perceived by the public as having a poor record for security and the protection of private information
7OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
Why An Energy Assurance Technology-Based Effort Now?
The U.S. Public is Poised to Demand Energy Assurance
Technology-Based Solutions Are the Most Viable Option for the Central Focus for Achieving Energy Assurance in the Near Term They offer the best opportunity to balance Energy, National,
Economic, and Environmental Security They depend upon the existence of a strong U.S. science and
technology program They are completely in U.S. control They engage a wide and diverse science, technology and
production workforce They address all energy sectors They address production, distribution, and consumption They fuel renewed growth and entrepreneurship They are enabling; not defensive
8OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
There is no “Silver Bullet”
The U.S. Energy System is Very Tightly
Balanced Between Supply and Demand
HarmfulDisruptions(status-quo)
9OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
Exa-Scale Will Introduce Systems Level Modeling
The U.S. Energy System is Very Tightly
Balanced Between Supply and Demand
A Small Change Will Have a Big
Impact
Energy Assurancerecursive
Fortunately Small Changes Have an Impact on Energy Assurance
10OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
Energy Assurance:Path Forward for High Impact
Investment Capital Model(VCs drive business
to IPO)
Dream-Team Model
(Industry leads partnership)
IPO Companies
Demonstrations
Solutions, Jobs, $$ Solutions, Jobs, $$C
reate
th
e N
ew Fix
the Le
gacy
Science, Technology, and Innovation
Exa-Scale Computing by 2015 and 20 by 20
Industry Will Deliver the Broad Solutions
11OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
Achieving Energy Assurance-- Bet on a Science, Technology, and Innovation --
The successful strategy requires a prolific S&T activity targeting all energy sectors to drive innovation and technology-based solutions
The successful strategy uses computer technology to drive an aggressive pace—2 decades—for achieving U.S. Energy Assurance
The successful strategy employs high dependence on cyber-based control and information systems
The successful strategy links the S&T activity with industry to drive energy assurance whether production-, distribution-, or consumption-based solutions into the marketplace
12OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
Success Model for S&T Focus for Energy
The Essential Three Parts Are:
Science andTechnology
Modeling andComputer Systems
Cyber SecureInformation
13OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
The successful strategy uses computer technology to drive an aggressive pace—2 decades—for achieving U.S. Energy Assurance
103 simulation & computer capability advancement = innovation cycle (3 to 4 years)
Provide S&T budget stability suitable to support recursive cycle of innovation
106 simulation & computer capability advancement = systems engineering development cycle (8 to 9 years)
Provide Demonstration and Deployment budget suitable to support recursive cycle of systems engineering development
14OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
The successful strategy employs high dependence on cyber-based control and information systems
Perfectly secure system is not achievable
Augment traditional device- and filtering- based protection methods with aggressive use of real-time threat detection Systems have built in capability advancement
Learning Knowledge discovery Threat isolation Performance / Speed / Scope
Systems have built in capability to capture increased knowledge and understanding
15OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
Physical Science and Technology Disciplines to Target for Innovation Opportunities
Sc
ien
ce
an
d T
ech
no
log
y Modeling andComputer Systems
Cyber SecureInformation
Closed Nuclear Fuel Cycle
Energy Storage
Nanoscience
Geosciences/Climate
Bioenergy
Superconductivity
Combustion
16OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
Science and Technology Drivers in Key Science Domains
Science Domains Science and Technology Driver
Accelerator Physics Optimize a new low-loss cavity design for the ILC
Astrophysics Explosion mechanism of core-collapse supernovae and Type Ia supernovae
Biology Can efficient ethanol production offset the current oil and gasoline crisis?
ChemistryCatalytic transformation of hydrocarbons; clean energy & hydrogen production and storage
Climate Predict future climates based on scenarios of anthropogenic emissions
Combustion Developing cleaner-burning, more efficient devices for combustion.
Fusion Plasma turbulent fluctuations in ITER must be understood and controlled
High Energy PhysicsFind the Higgs particles thought to be responsible for mass, and find evidence of supersymmetry
Nanoscience & Superconductivity
Designing high temperature superconductors, magnetic nanoparticles for ultra high density storage
Nuclear EnergyCan all aspects of the nuclear fuel cycle be designed virtually? Reactor core, radio-chemical separations reprocessing, fuel rod performance, repository
Nuclear PhysicsHow are we going to describe nuclei whose fundamental properties we cannot measure?
17OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
Modeling and Computer Systems Disciplines to Target for Innovation Opportunities
Mo
de
ling
an
dC
om
pu
ter
Sys
tem
s
Cyber SecureInformation
Science and Technology
Zoning and Problem Setup
Parallel Graphics and Display of Results
Pathforward Engineering
Simulation Tools
PetaOps Computers &ExaOps Architectures
Numerical Mathematics
106 Processor Algorithms
18OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
Cyber Secure Information Disciplines to Target for Innovation Opportunities
Cy
ber
Se
cu
re In
form
ati
on Science and
Technology
Modeling andComputer Systems
Knowledge Discovery
Real-Time Algorithms for Learning & Detection
Simulators
Data Integrity
Authentication, Authorization, and Accounting
Data Analysis
Graphs, Statistics, and Linear Programming
19OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
Goal of This S&T
Apply novel S&T investigation simultaneously among Physical R&D in areas (e.g., Transportation,
Renewables, or Nuclear Energy), High Performance Computing and Modeling, and Cyber Secure Information
to develop new or accelerate significantly recent technology advances with direct and near term application to Energy Assurance
The S&T will treat these three central focuses as a whole versus the traditional independence This approach is novel and will drive towards technology
options that have a physical and virtual representation with cyber secure information as an integral element.
20OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
Energy Assurance TimelineF
lexi
bil
ity
/ R
esil
ien
ce
HighLow
Lo
wH
igh
Security / Independence
10 years
20years
Today
2010-2019 – 1st decade
Create Science Base for Sustained, Decade-Long Technology Demonstration and Deployment In All Energy Sectors
Demonstrate Technical Feasibility of Reaching Energy Assurance for US by 2029
1/3-way Based on Early Technology Innovation, Demonstration, and Deployment
2020-2029 – 2nd decade
Technology Demonstrations and Deployments
Achieve Energy Assurance
Energy AssuranceAssessment