PRIMARY ENERGY RESERVES, GLOBAL WARMING, FOSSIL FUEL SUBSTITUTION, ENVIRONMENT POLLUTION AND PROTECTION, NUCLEAR AND RENEWABLE ENERGY PERSPECTIVE

Course 1 - 2014

Primary energy resources

Definition: “Primary energy should be used to designate those sources that only involve extraction or capture, with or without separation from contiguous material, cleaning or grading, before the energy embodied in that source can be converted into heat or mechanical work.” “Secondary energy should be used to designate all sources of energy that results from transformation of primary sources”

Primary energy resourcesCoal, natural gas, and oil accounted for 87% of global primary energy consumption in 2012, as the growth of worldwide energy use continued to slow due to the economic downturn. The relative weight of these energy sources keeps shifting, although only slightly. Natural gas increased its share of energy consumption from 23.8 to 23.9% during 2012, coal rose from 29.7 to 29.9%, and oil fell from 33.4 to 33.1%. The International Energy Agency predicts that by 2017, coal will replace oil as the dominant primary energy source worldwide.The shale revolution in the United States is reshaping global oil and gas markets. The United States produced oil at record levels in 2012 and is expected to overtake Russia as the world’s largest producer of oil and natural gas combined in 2013. Consequently, the United States is importing decreasing amounts of these two fossil fuels, while using rising levels of domestic natural gas for power generation. This has led to price discrepancies between the U.S. and European natural gas markets that in turn have prompted Europeans to increase their use of coal power. Coal consumption, however, was dominated by China, which in 2012 for the first time accounted for more than half of the world’s coal use.Global natural gas production grew by 1.9% in 2012, dominated by the United States (with 20.4 % of the total) and Russia (17.6%). Other countries accounted for less than 5% each of global output.

Drivers of energy changeThe world around us has changed significantly over the past 20 years. The following principal drivers have been shaping energy supply and use: sharp increase in the price of oil since 2001 after 15 years of moderate oil prices financial crisis and slow economic growth with drastic reduction in energy

consumption in large economies shale gas in North America Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident The volatile political situation in the energy supplying countries in the Middle East

and North Africa, “The Arab Spring” lack of global agreement on climate change mitigation collapse of CO2 prices in the European Emissions Trading System exponential growth in renewables, in particular in Europe due to generous

subsidies for producers which can become a problem instead of an opportunity deployment of ‘smart’ technologies energy efficiency potential still remaining untapped growing public concerns about new infrastructure projects, including energy

projects and their impact on political decision-making process

Primary energyresources

Primary energy resources• China, then India, drive the growing

dominance of Asia in global energy demand & trade

• Technology is opening up new oil resources, but the Middle East remains central to the longer-term outlook

• Regional price gaps & concerns over competitiveness are here to stay, but there are ways to react – with efficiency first in line

• The transition to a more efficient, low-carbon energy sector is more difficult in tough economic times, but no less urgent

Primary energy resources

Primary energy resources

„Global warming” concernsGlobal warming and climate change refer to an increase in average global temperatures. Natural events and human activities are believed to be contributing to an increase in average global temperatures. This is caused primarily by increases in “greenhouse” gases such as Carbon Dioxide (CO2).

A warming planet thus leads to a change in climate which can affect weather in various ways.

What Are The Main Indicators Of Climate Change?

Changes in temperaturesIt is certain that global mean surface temperature has increasedsince the late 19th century . Each of the past three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any the previous decades in the instrumental record, and the decade of the 2000’s has been the warmest. The globally averaged combined land and ocean temperature data as calculated by a linear trend, show a warming of 0.85 [0.65 to 1.06] °C, over the period 1880–2012

Greenhouse effect ?The term greenhouse is used in conjunction with the phenomenon known as the greenhouse effect:• Energy from the sun drives

the earth’s weather and climate, and heats the earth’s surface;

• In turn, the earth radiates energy back into space;

• Some atmospheric gases (water vapour, carbon dioxide, and other gases) trap some of the outgoing energy, retaining heat somewhat like the glass panels of a greenhouse;

• These gases are therefore known as greenhouse gases;

The greenhouse effect is the rise in temperature on Earth as certain gases in the atmosphere trap energy.

Six main greenhouse gases are carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) (which is 20 times as potent a greenhouse gas as carbon dioxide) and nitrous oxide (N2O), plus three fluorinated industrial gases: hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6).

Carbon dioxide cycleMany of these greenhouse gases are actually life-enabling, for without them, heat would escape back into space and the Earth’s average temperature would be a lot colder.However, if the greenhouse effect becomes stronger, then more heat gets trapped than needed, and the Earth might become less habitable for humans, plants and animals.Carbon dioxide, though not the most potent of greenhouse gases, is the most significant one. Human activity has caused an imbalance in the natural cycle of the greenhouse effect and related processes.

Greenhouse gases are essential for our planet; the planet may be able to deal with slightly increased levels of such gases, but too much will affect the health of the whole planet. Other difference between the natural carbon cycle and human-induced climate change is that the latter is rapid. This means that ecosystems have less chance of adapting to the changes that will result and so the effects felt will be worse it things continue along the current trajectory.

Human impact on climate change

Doesn’t Recent Record Cold Weather Disprove Global Warming ?

In different parts of the world, there have been various weather events that at first thought would question global warming. For example, some regions have experienced extremely cold winters (sometimes record-breaking), while others have experienced heavy rain, etc.

The confusion that sometimes arises is the difference between climate change and weather patterns. Weather patterns describe short term events, while climate change is a longer process that affects the weather. A warming planet is actually consistent with increasing cold, increasing rain and other extremes, as an overall warmer planet changes weather patterns everywhere at all times of the year.

Energy security Energy security is the association between national security and the availability

ofnatural resources for energy consumption. Access to cheap energy has becomeessential to the functioning of modern economies. However, the uneven distribution ofenergy supplies among countries has led to significant vulnerabilities. Renewable energy resourcesand significant opportunities for energy efficiency exist over wide geographical areas, in contrast to other energy sources, which are concentrated in a limited number of countries. Rapid deployment of renewable energy and energy efficiency, and technological diversification of energy sources, would result in significant energy security and economic benefits.

Fossil fuels depletion? Fossil fuels will remain the most important energy source, at least until 2030, and the use of oil, gas and coal is expected to grow in volume over this period. Coal is not scarce, but is problematic for pollution and climate change reasons. The production costs of oil continue to rise with the expansion of the share of deepwater exploration in the supply. Although coal and gas are abundantly available, environmental and logistical reasons prevent a substantial shift away from oil to these energy sources. Fossil fuel reserves are concentrated in a small number of countries. 80 % of the coal reserves are located in just six countries; the European Union (EU) has 4 % of the global stock. The EU share of the world’s gas reserves decreased from 4.6 % in 1980 to 1.3 % in 2009. These reserves are expected to be exhausted before 2030. More than half of the global stock is found in only three countries: Iran, Qatar and Russia (24 % in 2009), which is a major gas supplier for the EU. Ten countries (of which eight are OPEC members) have 80 % of the world’s oil reserves. Some of these countries may exercise their power to restrict supply or influence the price. EU dependence on imported fossil fuels is slowly rising and presently amounts to about 55 %. Some EU countries (for instance Estonia, Italy, France and Sweden) have sizeable oil shale stocks. Reduced foreign supply may encourage them to exploit these sources. The Arctic region is expected to contain a substantial amount of oil, probably up to 90 billion barrels.

Will fossil fuel reserves be effectively depleted by 2050?

Fossil fuels play a crucial role in the world energy market. The world's energy market worth around 1.5 trillion dollars is still dominated by fossil fuels. The World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2007 claims that energy generated from fossil fuels will remain the major source and is still expected to meet about 84% of energy demand in 2030. There is worldwide research into other reliable energy resources to replace fossil fuel, as they diminish; this is mainly being driven due to the uncertainty surrounding the future supply of fossil fuels. It is expected, however, that the global energy market will continue to depend on fossil fuels for at least the next few decades. World oil resources are judged to be sufficient to meet the projected growth in demand until 2030, with output becoming more concentrated in Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries on the assumption that the necessary investment is forthcoming. According to WEO 2007 oil and gas supplies are estimated to escalate from 36 million barrels per day in 2006 to 46 million barrels per day in 2015, reaching 61 million barrels per day by 2030. In addition, oil and gas reserves are forecast at about 1300 billion barrels and 6100 trillion cubic feet in 2006, Respectively. The World Energy Council in 2007 estimated recoverable coal reservesof around 850 billion tonne in 2006.

Fossil fuels reserves trendFossil fuel reserve trends tend to mainly depend on two important parameters: consumption and price. It was projected that energy consumption will increase at an average rate of 1.1% per annum, from 500 quadrillion Btu in 2006 to 701.6 quadrillion Btu in 2030. Currently, the growth in world energy consumption is approximately 2% per annum. “In terms of global consumption, crude oil remains the most important primary fuel accounting for 36.4% of the world's primary energy consumption (without biomass)”. The International Energy Agency (IEA) claims oil demand as the single largest consumable fossil fuel in the global energy market will fall from 35% to 32% by 2030. Coal is the second largest consumable fossil fuel relative to the three main fossil fuels; in part largely due to consumption over the past couple of years. According to WEO 2007, “coal is seen to have the biggest increase in demand in absolute terms, jumping by 73% between 2005 and 2030”. “Coal accounted for about 28% of global primary energy consumption in 2005; surpassed only by crude oil” (BGR, 2007). Reserves of gas in comparison to oil and coal will moderately increase for the next two decades, from 21% to 22%. Although other energy resources are expanding in the world, the rate of fossil fuel consumption for energy will also continue to increase through to 2030. The next important issue after global consumption of fossil fuels is fossil fuel price movement. Proven fossil fuel reserves will fluctuate according to economic conditions, especially fossil fuel prices. In other words, proven reserves will shrink when prices are too low for fossil fuels to be recovered economically and expand when prices deem fossil fuels economically recoverable. In addition, the trend of fossil fuel prices significantly affects fossil fuel consumption. On the other hand, fossil fuel price fluctuations affect other variables such as international inflation, global GDP growth, etc. Consequently, the size of fossil fuel reserves depends on their prices.

Curent energy scenario

Nuclear versus renewableNuclear power is back in fashion, touted as a pain-free

solution to climate change and looming energy shortages. Does its claims really add up?

Nuclear power has been promoted as the answer to both climate change and energy insecurity. It is neither… As a response to global warming, it is too slow, too expensive, too limited and in an age of terrorist threats, it is more of a security risk than a solution.Why we need renewables now !There are three major reasons why a rapid uptake of renewable energy is now vital for the UK.First, climate change means we need to drastically reduce our reliance on fossil fuels. Under the Kyoto Protocol, we’re already committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 12.5% by 2012, compared with 1990 levels. Without a massive increase in renewable energy (and a major improvement in energy efficiency), these targets will be impossible to meet.Secondly, one of the greatest unacknowledged threats to the world economy is the imminent peak of global oil production, which is set to send already high oil prices much higher still, creating a severe economic shock of large but unpredictable proportions.Thirdly, world current stock of nuclear power stations is ageing and will progressively close over the coming two decades.

Prospects of renewableThe future of renewable energy is fundamentally a choice, not a foregone conclusion given technology and economic trends. The context for that choice includes the present situation—high levels of current investment and more than a decade of dramatic market growth, proliferation of support policies, and cost reductions for renewable energy. The context also involves a growing diversity of motivations, such as energy security, climate and environment, industrial and economic development, financial risk mitigation, flexibility, and resilience.

What are the options?

Conventional vehicles alone may not achieve EU CO2 reduction goal for 2050

To conclude

Why Hydrogen ?Hydrogen is the simplest element. An atom of hydrogen consists of only one proton and one electron. It's also the most plentiful element in the universe. Despite its simplicity and abundance, hydrogen doesn't occur naturally as a gas on the Earth - it's always combined with other elements. Water, for example, is a combination of hydrogen and oxygen (H2O).Hydrogen is also found in many organic compounds, notably the hydrocarbons that make up many of our fuels, such as gasoline, natural gas, methanol, and propane. Hydrogen can be separated from hydrocarbons through the application of heat - a process known as reforming. Currently, most hydrogen is made this way from natural gas. An electrical current can also be used to separate water into its components of oxygen and hydrogen. This process is known as electrolysis. Some algae and bacteria, using sunlight as their energy source, even give off hydrogen under certain conditions.

Hydrogen is high in energy, yet an engine that burns pure hydrogen produces almost no pollution. NASA has used liquid hydrogen since the 1970s to propel the space shuttle and other rockets into orbit. Hydrogen fuel cells power the shuttle's electrical systems, producing a clean byproduct - pure water, which the crew drinks.

Hydrogen energy ?Hydrogen is not a primary energy source like coal and gas. It is an energy carrier. Initially, it will be produced using existing energy systems based on different conventional primary energy carriers and sources. In the longer term, renewable energy sources will become the most important source for the production of hydrogen. Regenerative hydrogen, and hydrogen produced from nuclear sources and fossil-based energy conversion systems with capture, and safe storage (sequestration) of CO2 emissions, are almost completely carbon-free energy pathways.

Hydrogen energy ?The benefits of hydrogen and fuel cells are wide ranging, but will not be fully apparent until they are in widespread use. With the use of hydrogen in fuel-cell systems there are very low to zero carbon emissions and no emissions of harmful ambient air substances like nitrogen dioxide, sulphur dioxide or carbon monoxide. Because of their low noise and high power quality, fuel cell systems are ideal for use in hospitals or IT centres, or for mobile applications. They offer high efficiencies which are independent of size. Fuel-cell electric-drive trains can provide a significant reduction in energy consumption and regulated emissions. Fuel cells can also be used as Auxiliary Power Units (APU) in combination with internal combustion engines, or in stationary back-up systems when operated with reformers for on-board conversion of other fuels – saving energy and reducing air pollution, especially in congested urban traffic.In brief, hydrogen and electricity together represent one of the most promising ways to realise sustainable energy, whilst fuel cells provide the most efficient conversion device for converting hydrogen, and possibly other fuels, into electricity. Hydrogen and fuel cells open the way to integrated “open energy systems” that simultaneously address all of the major energy and environmental challenges, and have the flexibility to adapt to the diverse and intermittent renewable energy sources that will be available in the Europe of 2030.

Hydrogen benefits !Energy security and supply

Today’s society depends crucially on the uninterrupted availability of affordable fossil fuels which, in future, will be increasingly concentrated in a smaller number of countries – creating the potential for geopolitical and price instability. Hydrogen opens access to a broad range of primary energy sources, including fossil fuels, nuclear energy and, increasingly, renewable energy sources (e.g. wind, solar, ocean, and biomass), as they become more widely available. Thus, the availability and price of hydrogen as a carrier should be more stable than any single energy source. The introduction of hydrogen as an energy carrier, alongside electricity, would enable Europe to exploit resources that are best adapted to regional circumstances.

Hydrogen benefits !Economic competitivenessSince the first oil crisis in the 1970s, economic growth has not been directly linked with growth in energy demand in the industrial sector, whereas in the transport sector increased mobility still leads to a proportionate increase in energy consumption. Development and sales of energy systems are also major components of wealth creation, from automobiles to complete power stations, creating substantial employment and export opportunities, especially to the industrialising nations. In the US and Japan, hydrogen and fuel cells are considered to be core technologies for the 21st century, important for economic prosperity. There is strong investment and industrial activity in the hydrogen and fuel cell arena in these countries, driving the transition to hydrogen – independently of Europe. If Europe wants to compete and become a leading world player.

Air quality and health improvementsImproved technology and post-combustion treatments for conventional technologies are continuously reducing pollutant emissions. Nevertheless, oxides of nitrogen and particulates remain a problem in certain areas, while the global trend towards urbanisation emphasises the need for clean energy solutions and improved public transport. Vehicles and stationary power generation fuelled by hydrogen are zero emission devices at the point of use, with consequential local air quality benefits.

Greenhouse gas reductionHydrogen can be produced from carbon-free or carbon-neutral energy sources or from fossil fuels with CO2 capture and storage (sequestration). Thus, the use of hydrogen could eventually eliminate greenhouse gas emissions from the energy sector. Fuel cells provide efficient and clean electricity generation from a range of fuels.