EMSIAnnual

Conference

Labor Mkt. Outlook

Coeur d’Alene, IDSeptember 12, 2012

Bob UhlenkottChief Research Officer

Idaho Department of Labor

Research Collaborations

• Labor Market Information shops are collaborating with education institutions all across the country via State Longitudinal Data Systems (SLDS) and Workforce Data Quality Initiative (WDQI) grants.

60%

• State Education and Workforce goals vary across the country but have common theme. Build a broader, smarter and more educated workforce

Return-On-Investment

$18

$10$9 $10

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

$18

$20

Associate degree or Postsecondary vocational training

Bachelor's degree Master's degree or Bachelor's or higher degree, plus work experience

First professional degree or Doctoral degree

Educations Return on Investment for Every Dollar Invested

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006

20072008

20092010

20112012

20132014

20152016

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

Realized GDP 3.3% Annual Growth 1.3% Annual Growth

Bureau of Economic Analysis - June 2012

3.3%

1.3%

$57.9 Billion

$60B -- Idaho Gross Domestic Product

2013

2016

$60 Billion

Idaho Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate19

7819

7819

7919

8019

8119

8119

8219

8319

8419

8419

8519

8619

8719

8719

8819

8919

9019

9019

9119

9219

9319

9319

9419

9519

9619

9619

9719

9819

9919

9920

0020

0120

0220

0220

0320

0420

0520

0520

0620

0720

0820

0820

0920

1020

11

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Perc

ent

Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the US Department of Labor - June 2012.

7.5 % 8.3 %

July 2012

(9.6%) Previous RecordDec-1982 to Feb-1983

(2.7%) Nov-2006 to Mar-2007

Conference Board Data (July 2012)5/

1/20

07

7/1/

2007

9/1/

2007

11/1

/200

7

1/1/

2008

3/1/

2008

5/1/

2008

7/1/

2008

9/1/

2008

11/1

/200

8

1/1/

2009

3/1/

2009

5/1/

2009

7/1/

2009

9/1/

2009

11/1

/200

9

1/1/

2010

3/1/

2010

5/1/

2010

7/1/

2010

9/1/

2010

11/1

/201

0

1/1/

2011

3/1/

2011

5/1/

2011

7/1/

2011

9/1/

2011

11/1

/201

1

1/1/

2012

3/1/

2012

5/1/

2012

7/1/

2012

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

24,000

26,000

Help Wanted Online by Wanted Analytics

Idaho Non-Farm JobsYear Over Year Percentage Change

JanMar

May JulSep

Nov

January 2009

MarMay Jul

SepNov

January 2010

MarMay Jul

SepNov

January 2011

MarMay Jul

SepNov

January 2012

MarMay

-8%

-7%

-6%

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

Idaho Non-farm Jobs Data - June 2012 - Idaho Department of Labor

EMSI Uses in Idaho LMI Shop

EMSI Adds Value: Input-Output Models/Multipliers Release-able Data Sets (estimates

confidential cells) Data Mining in Smaller Geographies Quick and Easy Data Mining and

Formatting

Industry and Occupational Projections

STP - 2009 to 2011 – Jobs were projected to grow annually at .30%. Underestimated Non-farm Jobs in the fourth quarter of 2011 by 140

Jobs (off by .023%).

STP - 2010 to 2012 – Jobs were projected to grow annually at .33%. Growth expected to be near projection.

STP - 2011 to 2013 – Jobs are projected to grow annually at 1.2%. Too early to tell, but growth is slower than the projection in the first

six months.

LTP - 2010 to 2020 – Jobs projected to grow at 1.7%. More to be shared this afternoon.

Education and Training Pay!

Thank You!Bob Uhlenkott

Bob.uhlenkott@labor.idaho.gov208.332.3570 ext. 3217