Emerging Markets and Global Governance: An Indian Perspective
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Emerging Markets and GlobalGovernance: An Indian PerspectiveArundhati Ghose aa Foreign policy analyst and commentatorPublished online: 16 Dec 2010.
To cite this article: Arundhati Ghose (2010) Emerging Markets and Global Governance: An IndianPerspective, The International Spectator: Italian Journal of International Affairs, 45:4, 49-61, DOI:10.1080/03932729.2010.527100
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Emerging Markets and GlobalGovernance: An Indian Perspective
Arundhati Ghose
The startling emergence of China as an economic and military power has given rise
to apprehensions globally, but more so among the established powers. The appre-
hensions relate not only to the cultural and historical ‘alienness’ of China, but also
to its apparent willingness to challenge the global system and architecture of global
governance set in place by the West over half a century ago. While non-Western
countries are also wary of the possible impact on them and on the global order of
Chinese actions on a range of global issues, they appear to be willing to cooperate
with China on some of them in order to change a system that has often been seen as
inequitable and unbalanced. Yet, the apprehensions of the West would seem to
conflate the idea of a rising China with that of other emerging markets. It is argued
here that, given the historical, political and cultural experiences of these emerging
markets, their access to power and influence, if and when it happens, need not
necessarily take the same route as that of China. This is true particularly in the case
of India; for reasons which will be highlighted, India is likely, at least for the
foreseeable future, to remain within the existing paradigm of global governance,
though it may seek to adapt the rules and structures to better reflect its economic,
political and security interests. This would not preclude cooperation on a selective
basis on specific global issues with different partners. This would be apparent
particularly in the realm of global challenges such as climate change and non-
proliferation, international trade and finance and the global commons, such as
space, the oceans and cyberspace.
The new emphasis on global governance
Global governance has become the subject of much recent and mainly Western
debate and intense discussion, particularly in the context of the impact of rising
powers on such governance. While terminology may not be of substantive signifi-
cance, narratives are frequently predetermined by their use. The terms
Arundhati Ghose is a foreign policy analyst and commentator. Email: [email protected]
The International Spectator, Vol. 45, No. 4, December 2010, 49–61 ISSN 0393-2729 print/ISSN 1751-9721 online� 2010 Istituto Affari Internazionali DOI: 10.1080/03932729.2010.527100
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‘rising powers’ and ‘emerging markets’ are used interchangeably, though the
approaches denoted are widely different. According to Stewart Patrick, rising
powers
want to be at the high table, they want to alter the rules of the game and want more
say in global governance structures. But they are also – as self-defined developing
countries, leery of assuming additional burdens and obligations of power and parti-
cularly leery of picking up the check and providing public goods.1
While much of this opinion may be a fair reflection of a factual situation, the
inevitability of these developments is ignored. Emerging markets are not only
attractive because of the newness and size of their growing markets for the exports
of the established countries, but are now indispensable in the search for solutions to
global challenges such as the international economy and climate change. Both
terms refer, by and large, to the same group of countries, though an emerging
market may not be a rising power and, perhaps, vice versa (cf. Iran, which is not yet
an emerging market, but is certainly a power in the region, a fact frequently
ignored in the West). These countries will be referred to in the latter sense, that
is, as emerging markets since, apart from China, most of them do not yet impact
on the interests of the established countries in any significant way.
The term ‘global governance’ has been used to denote, variously, the power and
reach of multilateral institutions, the rules and norms set by them, the right of
(mainly Western) civil society organisations and non-governmental organisations to
participate in global decision-making in a kind of post-Westphalian world, where
the writ of the nation-state is, on occasion, superseded by a ‘global’ norm and, in
extreme cases, by agendas drawn up by the powerful on issues of importance to
them, to be negotiated with the participation of all countries – as in the case of, for
example, non-proliferation and international trade.
Little of this is really new; since the end of World War II, the UN, particularly
through the Security Council, its several specialised agencies, the Bretton Woods
institutions, the GATT/WTO and many of the treaties and conventions in areas as
diverse as labour standards, non-proliferation, international humanitarian law and
international trade, have set rules and guidelines for what could be termed ‘global
governance’ according to this definition. However, the world has changed and is
changing rapidly into unprecedented and presently uncharted territory. The recent
emphasis on global governance clearly seems to indicate a desire for a return to the
earlier order and stability – and of course, power – a return, after decades of
prosperity and stability in the West, from a world made turbulent by economic
1S. M. Patrick, speaker at the Council for Foreign Relations symposium, ‘‘Rising Powers and GlobalInstitutions in the Twenty-First Century’’, 19 May 2010, Washington DC, http://www.cfr.org/publica-tion/22191/pqnel
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crises, with the rise on the horizon of other non-Western centres of power, parti-
cularly the dramatic emergence of a prosperous and assertive China.
Developing countries like India have, over the years, been in a reactive mode to
this global system,2 frequently resentful of global agendas being set without taking
into account the problems and constraints of countries like themselves.
Nevertheless, they have participated in an effort to protect their interests to the
extent possible. At present, there is little public debate or discussion, certainly in
India, on the contours of global governance as an new all-encompassing coherent
system; yet, the discrete elements of the global system are subject to close scrutiny
and analyses as shifts in power, events and relationships evolve. Developing coun-
tries, including India, have tended so far to support a rule-based system as provid-
ing a minimum protection from the vagaries of an alien world market which
inevitably impacts them even while the origins of the global trends and the con-
sequent rules have been formulated by the rich and the powerful. As a result, there
has been a continuing emphasis on the changing of the rules, a resetting of agendas.
It needs to be recognised, however, that the current system has helped many
developing countries. India and other developing countries like it have benefited
from the globalisation that has swept the world, albeit less as deliberate ‘govern-
ance’ and more as a phenomenon of which advantage could be taken, a system by
whose rules these countries are slowly learning to play. Globalisation, therefore, is
seen as an unstoppable and almost natural phenomenon, the interdependence or
opening up of markets and the freer flow of finances, technology and skilled
workers.
New international groupings
The new emphasis on global governance, on the other hand, would seem to imply
the reiteration or even the re-imposition of some order on the unpredictable
changes that globalisation has and is engendering. China, for one, has used the
current system to power its spectacular growth without ceding much in return.
Its emergence on the international stage has now put it in a position to influence, to
possibly change the existing rules, if not the existing system, perhaps even to
promote a ‘China model’ of development and progress that would more effectively
reflect its interests also. This appears to have caused much apprehension, particu-
larly in an economically troubled West, even while it has found some resonance in
other wary rising powers.
Kishore Mahbubani has questioned the reactions of the West to the rise, mainly
of China, in his ironic and almost prescient book, The New Asian Hemisphere.3
Other emerging markets have also seen unprecedented growth rates and a
2China has usually joined in meetings of the Group of 77 developing countries in the ‘G77þ1’ format.3Mahbubani, The New Asian Hemisphere.
Global Governance: An Indian Perspective 51
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dynamism in their economies which, on occasion, has given them a foretaste of the
possibility of increased influence on, if not yet the framing of agendas, the framing
of rules to take their interests into account, certainly in the economic field,
especially after the major global crisis of 2008–09 (which, in a sense continues
with the troubles of the Eurozone).
The emergence of the G20 which, at a level, should be accepted as a natural
outcome of economic developments taking place worldwide will, to the extent that
it appears to be ‘replacing’ the G7/G8, necessarily cause adjustment pains for the
erstwhile centres of economic power. As asserted in both the G20 Pittsburgh
Declaration and the Joint Statement of the Brasilia BRIC Summit, the G20 is
‘‘the premier forum for international coordination and cooperation’’ and should
‘‘be proactive and formulate a coherent strategy for the post-crisis period’’.4
The significance of the G20’s initial declaration is the recognition that the
Bretton Woods institutions need to change to reflect the new economic realities
(and it is here that India is participating in financial coordination). What is more
interesting, however, is the agenda the BRIC countries have set for themselves and
for the international community, not only through the mechanism of the G20.
The language used for the ‘new’ approach to global governance would appear to
be, by and large, a reiteration of the old: the health and stability of the global
economy, including international trade and stability of financial flows; interna-
tional security including the threat of terrorism, non-proliferation, climate
change; the need to strengthen multilateral institutions including the UN, the
IMF and the World Bank and the reiteration of the rules and norms set in a
different time. Yet, it is clear that the emerging countries’ interpretation carries a
different emphasis. India’s External Affairs Minister Somanahalli Mallaiah Krishna,
clearly voiced the view that ‘‘[t]he current global architecture is many decades old
and is no longer capable of adequately meeting the increasing challenges before us’’
and called for the reform of the UN, especially the UN Security Council, which he
characterised as ‘‘unrepresentative and undemocratic’’. He emphasized the impor-
tance of the ‘‘development dimension’’ in the Doha Round and the ‘‘urgent need
for bringing about reforms in the international financial institutions’’ following the
recent global economic meltdown.5
The BRIC agenda further specifies the difference in emphasis and has introduced
new issues and nuanced many of the old.6 A brief overview of the Joint Statement
illustrates this approach: while supporting the UN ‘‘playing the central role in
dealing with global challenges and threats’’, only a comprehensively reformed
UN that is more ‘‘effective, efficient and representative’’ would enable it to deal
4G20 Pittsburgh Declaration, 24–25 Sept. 2009, and the Joint Statement of the BRIC (Brazil, Russia,India and China) Summit, Brasilia, 14–15 April 2010.5BRIC Summit Joint Statement, http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN15132435201004166Ibid.
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with present day global challenges more effectively. Similarly, support for the
Bretton Woods institutions is subject to several caveats. The BRIC countries
have identified, as a major objective, ‘‘a reformed and more stable financial archi-
tecture that will make the global economy less prone and more resilient to future
crises . . . there is a greater need for a more stable, predictable and diversified
international monetary system . . . . The IMF and World Bank urgently need to
address their legitimacy deficits.’’ Primary among the reforms is the need for a
‘‘substantial shift in voting power in favour of emerging market economies and
developing countries to bring their participation in decision making in line with
their relative weight in the world economy’’. The Joint Statement underlines the
view of these countries that the mandate of the Doha Round of trade talks is for a
‘‘development round’’. Development, agriculture, the fight against poverty, and
energy have been added to the global challenges of climate change (again with a
caveat: the outcome of the Mexico Conference – there is no reference to
Copenhagen – should ‘‘reflect the principles of the Convention (UNFCC), espe-
cially the principle of equity and common but differentiated responsibilities’’) and,
of course, terrorism. There is no reference to non-proliferation or disarmament.
Clearly, the effort appears to be to adjust the current system incrementally to the
new realities.
The BRIC countries and their summit are only illustrative of this reaction of the
emerging markets to the revival of emphasis on older rules, some of which are
being distorted, it must be said, by their earlier enthusiasts and propagators. In fact,
in some cases, roles seem to have reversed, with developing countries supporting an
open economy and free trade and with the West tending to move towards a more
protectionist frame of mind. There are also several other similar groups of both
developing and developed countries which include the major emerging markets.
And there are several other emerging markets not included in BRIC; countries such
as South Africa, Indonesia and perhaps, even Egypt are rapidly joining the smaller
but more dynamic Asian countries, South Korea, Singapore and Vietnam. There
are therefore multiple sources from which impulses are originating for an adjust-
ment to, if not a change in, the rules of global governance as understood today by
many Western analysts and governments.
Conflating the rise of China with that of India
As already noted, the term ‘emerging markets’ itself explains not only much of their
attractiveness but also their growing influence. One of the main characteristics of
the major emerging markets is their size, and most of them, even those that
depended on the Western markets for their export-led growth, have turned towards
expanding domestic demand. The blossoming of these huge markets has inevitably
aided the ‘green shoots’ of recovery being felt in the Western economies.
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Of course, the Greek crisis, which should have been a European, that is, a regional
crisis to be solved by one of the richest markets in the world, had to turn to the
IMF, whose capital was recently expanded by contributions also from countries
such as China and even India. Such developments cannot but give these countries
not just a sense of power, but also a right to be party to the drawing up of
international financial rules and even the setting of the agendas of international
institutions.
In this scenario, which is necessarily an oversimplified one, there are vast differ-
ences of approach and indeed, performance. China today is perhaps the greatest
cause of apprehension in the West as it begins to reveal strengths that could place it
in the role of a rival if not an alternative to the Western model. The reliance on
China, not only on economic issues of trade and finance, but also on issues of
international security, has given rise to a plethora of proposals in Western literature
on how to deal with this new phenomenon. This is somewhat reminiscent of the
‘Japan syndrome’ of the 1970s – but Japan was an ally of the US and the West, was
not a permanent member of the UN Security Council and did not have nuclear
weapons, though it depended on the ‘extended deterrence’ of US nuclear weapons
for its security. The rise of Japan created interest and a stir in the West, but not the
apprehensions of a militarily, technologically and economically resurgent China.
This country has been asked to be a ‘responsible stakeholder’, presumably in
the existing global system, abiding by the existing rules and as a member of
existing multilateral institutions. Whether it does so or not, will depend on its
growing power, wealth and global influence. It still seeks parity with the United
States, but is willing to tweak the rules at the edges in pursuit of its national
interests, much like the power centres of the West have done in the past. China
seems to have accepted that it is only the weak that are expected to comply with
the rules, whether in the case of nuclear non-proliferation, international trade or
even the global commons, such as the oceans, space and cyberspace. So far, China
appears to be ready to work within – to the extent it suits its immediate com-
mercial or political interests – the contours of the present system of global
governance and to accept, broadly, its constraints. However, its recent ‘‘asser-
tiveness’’, to quote the Indian Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh, has raised some
concerns. Recent developments such as the Chinese claim that the South China
Sea and the Yellow Sea are among its ‘core’ interests, as well as its development of
the river systems on the Tibetan Plateau which could adversely affect the river
systems of both South and South East Asia, would seem to presage a more
revisionist role, some overweening in its ambitions. The apprehensions of the
neighbours, including India, reflect, though at a different level and on specific
national interests, those of the West.
There is a common tendency to conflate the rise of China with that of India and
the rest of Asia. Brahma Chellaney, together with many other Western
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commentators, sees the ‘‘centre of gravity in world affairs moving to a dynamic and
thriving Asia’’.
Economically and politically, Asia appears poised to determine the new world order.
With the world’s fastest-growing markets, fastest-rising military expenditures and
most serious hotspots (including the epicenter of international terrorism), Asia holds
the key to the future global order.7
This conflation constricts India’s actions on many issues, such as climate change
and international trade. Today, China is the world’s largest polluter and its econ-
omy is larger than those of the other three BRIC countries combined. Its exports
and foreign exchange reserve holdings are also more than twice those of the other
three BRIC countries combined.8
Apart from the fact that, as groupings such as BRIC and, in some cases,
BRICSAM (including South Africa and Mexico) prove, the spread of emerging
markets is not geographically limited, the fact remains that it is only China that has
grown and is growing at a spectacular rate, accumulating economic and military
power and a stated desire to act globally. Most of the other emerging markets are
still developing countries, albeit with healthy economic growth rates, but with all
the constraints of poverty, disorganisation and a lack of the power to actually
change the ground rules of global governance. BRIC is an attempt to do so with
caution, as much of its members’ success has grown out of the current system and
they are wary to enter into a period of instability and change without more con-
fidence in the sustainability of their prosperity.
Yet there are indications that some emerging markets are spreading their influ-
ence beyond their borders: South Africa, for example, and more significantly, Brazil
and Turkey, which have taken the initiative, whatever the final outcome, to reduce
tensions and seek to mediate – the original objective of the EU-3 – between Iran
and the US on the former’s nuclear programme. China, too, remains still some-
what constrained, working to achieve its own objectives in collaboration with other
‘like-minded’ countries, for example, the BASIC (Brazil, South Africa, India,
China) group in climate change negotiations. China, for all the periodic muscle-
flexing which worries its neighbours, takes positions in multilateral fora closer to
the positions of developing countries, particularly when its own interests are
involved. Yet China remains sui generis, and the transference of Western attitudes
and apprehensions of the challenge of China to other emerging markets, over-
simplifies a complex situation at best and, at worst, creates rigidities in positions
in what is essentially a fluid and evolving situation.
7Chellaney, Asian Juggernaut.8Jaeger, ‘‘Trade Dependence Vary Greatly Among the BRIC’’.
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Compelled to seek change
Given India’s wariness of many of China’s approaches, its cooperation with the
latter on issues such as climate change and trade has been questioned by some in
the West. India’s bilateral relations with an immediate neighbour that is rapidly
growing more powerful is necessarily a complex one. While bilateral trade con-
tinues to grow strongly, several China’s actions cause acute discomfort in India. Yet,
India, like China, is interested in changing some of the rules and, as seen above,
China too needs support in its efforts to get the international system to be more
responsive to its development imperatives. For example, the united front of the
developed countries on the issue of climate change and the similarity of approaches
of India, China, Brazil and South Africa – the demand for equity in the respon-
sibilities to be adopted by them – make cooperation inevitable. On the other hand,
as pointed out above, India and the other members of the G4 (Brazil, Japan and
Germany) are working together to restructure the Security Council to include these
countries as permanent members to reflect more accurately the international dis-
pensation of power today – a stand that China has not favoured so far. Cooperation
to obtain the objectives of most emerging powers is therefore, selective and issue
based.
As has already been noted, there is little focus or strategic attention in India on
setting agendas for global governance. Yet the debate on India’s role in the new and
swiftly changing world order is, in a sense, forcing it to face new challenges. Many
feel that India has already ‘repositioned’ itself in the world order; others prefer a
more status quo-ist approach (working within the existing system and attempting
incremental reforms). A large majority, however, feel that India inevitably has to be
anti-status quo-ist, with over 600 million people outside the market, their interests
not being reflected in the international rules and institutions. The repeated use of
the word ‘inclusive’ in describing not only its own growth policies but the bases of
global policies in order to achieve sustainability, would seem to underline India’s
compulsions to change some of the economic institutions and their rules at a time
when its own power to do so increases or when it is able to push this agenda
together with other countries in a similar position.
Before examining the contours of this ongoing debate, some of the drivers and
parameters within which Indian policies are bound to operate must be identified.
First and foremost, as a democracy with powerful state (regional) governments,
passing through a period of fairly divisive politics and coalition governments, the
pressures of a society in transition will have to be taken into account in any
responses to external developments. It also needs to be noted that the state con-
tinues to play a significant part in the Indian economy, though much of the growth
and dynamism has its origins in the private sector. Secondly, India’s diversity, in
languages, ethnicities and cultures makes decision-making processes complex and
protracted. Its colonial heritage also plays a part in determining attitudes in
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international fora, though with the passing of time, as new generations enter
decision-making levels, the impact of this factor appears to be declining. In addi-
tion, the growth of a powerful civil society is beginning to have an influence on
policies of government and is likely to grow in the future, even as the formal
positions of left political parties are on the wane. On the other hand, while
India’s focus today is on its internal economic and social development, it lives in
a troubled and rough neighbourhood. Security issues today play as important a part
in determining India’s reactions to global developments as its ambitions in the
economic and social sphere.
It has to be noted that, in the medium term and most certainly in the longer
term, as India’s middle classes grow and the size of the population outside the
market diminishes and a newer generation articulates its priorities, reflexes to resist
external pressures on externally set agendas and rules will also weaken. Today,
however, any government that wishes to continue in power, whether in the states
or at the centre, will have to be responsive to the large majority with votes, on issues
which might be perceived as restricting India’s freedom of action in determining its
own national interests.
Nuclear non-proliferation: a case of repositioning
Perhaps the most telling illustration of India’s reactions to an important issue of
global governance is the evolution of its position, frequently overlooked in the
commentaries of more rigid non-proliferation ‘absolutists’, on the issue of nuclear
non-proliferation, including the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), the
Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) and the Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty
(FMCT).
Since global sanctions were imposed on India following its nuclear test in 1974,
India has been viscerally against any association with the NPT, even in the most
indirect of ways. It viewed the treaty as flawed in that it not only offered no security
assurances to non-nuclear weapon states and therefore adversely affected its security
vis-a-vis China, which was then emerging as a full-fledged nuclear weapon state
with hostile intent towards India, but was also discriminatory and unequal and
only reflected the interests of the nuclear weapon states and their allies. India
committed itself to the elimination of all nuclear weapons and this would have
met its purposes but, as recognised by George Perkovich in his book India’s NuclearBomb, ‘‘India may have had logic, principle and the 1965 mandate on its side, but
the United States and the other nuclear weapon States had power on their side.’’
India’s rejection of the treaty
would characterize its nuclear diplomacy for decades: it supported the principle of
ensuring that nuclear material and capabilities would be used only for peaceful
purposes, but it resisted any measures that would allow some states to retain nuclear
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weapons while denying others the full freedom to exploit their resources as they saw
fit. India was and would remain fiercely jealous of its sovereignty, resistant to any
inequalities and inequities, wary of any semblance of colonialism and righteous in its
demands for disarmament.9
In 1996, India rejected the CTBT and in 1998 carried out five full-fledged nuclear
tests and declared itself a nuclear weapon state. Additional sanctions were imposed
on India at that time, too. But, in 1991, India had taken the decision not only to
liberalise its internal market, but also to cautiously open up its economy to global
trade and financial flows. India had started, albeit slowly, to integrate itself into the
global economy. As a result, its response to global reactions to its nuclear tests was
vastly different from the one in the early 1970s. India entered into detailed strategic
discussions with all major powers, particularly the United States. It announced that
it would not stand in the way of the CTBT entering into force, an indirect way of
assuring the international community that it would sign the treaty if all others
required to do so by its Article XIV also signed and ratified it. The foreign ministers
of two successive governments publicly stated that India would abide by the objec-
tives and principles of the NPT, as a nuclear weapon state, but that since that treaty
did not reflect the realities on the ground and continued to be discriminatory and
unequal, it would not consider becoming party to it.
Since that time, in 2005, the US and India agreed on a resumption of civil
nuclear cooperation, a decision that was, in 2008, approved by the 45 members of
the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG). Without going into the details of the tortuous
and prolonged negotiations between India and the US and the equally intense
debates within the NSG, it needs to be noted that, following this development,
India’s position on non-proliferation, the non-proliferation regime and the NPT
itself underwent a shift in emphasis.
While India is unlikely to sign the NPT as a non-nuclear weapon state and did
not attend the 2010 NPT Review Conference, the Indian prime minister did
attend US President Barack Obama’s Nuclear Security Summit held shortly
prior to it (12–13 April 2010). In his statement to that Conference, Prime
Minister Singh took a forward looking stance, not decrying the inequalities and
flaws of the NPT, but emphasizing the central role of the International Atomic
Energy Agency (IAEA) and of export controls, an issue which, even a few years ago
would have been unthinkable for an Indian representative. He underlined, instead,
that India had harmonised Indian export control guidelines and lists with those of
the NSG and MTCR (Missile Technology Control Regime).10
9Perkovich, India’s Nuclear Bomb.10‘‘Our commitment to not transfer nuclear weapons or related materials and technologies to NNWS(non-nuclear weapon states) or non-state actors is enshrined in domestic law through the enactment of theWMD Act. We stand committed not to transfer reprocessing and enrichment technologies and equipmentto countries that do not possess them.’’ Statement by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh at the NuclearSecurity Summit, Washington (The Hindu, 13 April 2010).
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At the same time, India as a state with nuclear weapons, has clearly supported the
start of negotiations on a Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty, though the elimination of
nuclear weapons remains a major part of its nuclear policy. Surrounded to the
north and west by not very friendly nuclear weapon states, India has based its
doctrine on a ‘no first use’ posture, and is working with other countries to promote
what has now become a more acceptable objective of a nuclear weapon free world.
India has also signed the Additional Protocol with the IAEA and placed its civilian
nuclear facilities under IAEA safeguards, even the reactors indigenously designed
and manufactured.
It is clear that India has repositioned itself on the nuclear issue and, with some
caveats, appears willing to abide by the rules and norms set down globally in
this area.
Participation in select fora on select questions
India has, as a developing yet rapidly growing country with rapidly growing energy
needs, taken a position as mentioned above, on climate change that is based on the
principle of equity. Working together with the BASIC countries (which include
China, perhaps the world’s largest polluter) is dictated mainly by the need to form
a kind of counterweight to the coordinated positions of the advanced Western
countries which, in trying to reduce the burden on themselves, have demanded
equal action from countries like India which have a low carbon footprint on per
capita terms and are in the process of growing. By agreeing to restrict the energy
intensity of this growth, India has opted for a less than confrontational approach,
even while protecting the interests of its people’s future.
As an original member of the WTO, India is also engaged in examining ways in
which that organisation can be institutionally reformed. In a thoughtful collection
of essays on the subject, Debra Steger notes that the General Agreement on Tariff
and Trade (GATT, the predecessor of the WTO) and its negotiating rounds
were launched during the Cold War and led by the United States. The modes of
negotiations were developed with a single power dominating the process and others
following suit. Eventually, trade negotiations developed into a bipolar framework,
with the growth and emergence of post-war Europe negotiating at the table in
Geneva with a single voice under a common commercial policy . . . . Others, such
as Japan and large developing countries played an important but not decisive role. 11
The essay by Thomas Cottier states that,
With the advent of the emerging economies, the WTO faces a multipolar
world . . . major decisions have required the consent of a number of countries,
including Brazil and India. The accession of China to the WTO in 2001 profoundly
11Steger, Redesigning the World Trade Organization.
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shifted the negotiating dynamic at the WTO . . . . The future accession of Russia will
further change the political economy of the WTO.12
According to another essay in the same book, the WTO is not only challenged by a
lack of leadership through the loss of momentum in the ‘liberal transatlantic
moment’, but also,
as we move toward a multipolar trade world, some of the leading actors (the United
States and the European Union) are showing signs of reluctance to agree to deals that
asymmetrically profit other emerging nations . . . these types of agreements (are)
difficult to sell at home to negatively affected communities . . . but some emerging
powers (e.g. China and Brazil) pose certain challenges to the United States (and to
some extent to the European Union) with regard to foreign and security policy . . . .
There is real concern that the current financial crisis and the negative spill-over
effects on growth figures will make parties even more suspicious . . . .13
From these excerpts, it is clear that the need for adjustment to the changing world
will have to come not just from the emerging economies which are causing/leading
the change, but from the ‘older’ powers, as economic and therefore political and, in
some cases, military power spreads beyond the traditional boundaries that they had
become used to.
India is deeply involved in the process of debating and working on the future of
the WTO as an organisation and, for example, reshaping the Generalised System of
Preferences (GSP) for developing countries. It appears keenly aware of the impor-
tance of the institution and a rule-based system which would protect its interests as
a developing country, however large. The system is accepted but efforts are being
made to adapt the rules to meet the new realities.
Conclusion
Global governance is not static; the emerging markets, the rising powers are usher-
ing in a period of change, in which new countries are participating in setting
agendas and drawing up new rules. These countries are themselves trying to
adjust to the new circumstances in which they find themselves, both domestically
and internationally. For a country like India, the task would appear daunting. It is
frequently criticised as not being ready or willing to exercise the power it has
obviously developed in recent times. It needs to be remembered, however, that
India has never been a ‘revolutionary’ country; even its independence was won
through protracted negotiations. Even if it could, India is not likely to demand
drastic changes in the global system; as a cautious player, it is just as unlikely to
support sudden and disruptive change. It would seek to resist ‘taking sides’ in a
12Cottier, ‘‘A Two-Tier Approach to WTO Decision Making’’.13Elsig, ‘‘WTO Decision-Making’’.
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US–China search to set the global agenda. It is much more likely that India will
seek to abide by the rules, provided it has had a part, as a liberal democracy, in the
framing of them. Such changes as it might support are likely to be incremental and
far less dramatic than what some apparently expect of it.
References
Chellaney, B. Asian Juggernaut: The Rise of China, India and Japan. New York: HarperCollins
Publishers, 2007.
Cottier, T. ‘‘A Two-Tier Approach to WTO Decision Making’’. In Redesigning the World Trade
Organization for the Twenty-first Century, edited by Debra P. Steger. Waterloo, Ontario:
Wilfrid Laurier University Press/CIGI/IDRC, 2010.
Elsig, M. ‘‘WTO Decision-Making: Can We get a Little Help from the Secretariat and the Critical
Mass?’’. In Redesigning the World Trade Organization for the Twenty-first Century, edited by
Debra P. Steger. Waterloo, Ontario: Wilfrid Laurier University Press/CIGI/IDRC, 2010.
Jaeger, M. ‘‘Trade Dependence and Economic-Political Vulnerability Vary Greatly Among the
BRIC’’, Talking Point. Frankfurt a.M: Deutsche Bank Research, 2010.
Mahbubani, K. The New Asian Hemisphere: The Irresistible Shift of Global Power to the East.
New York: Public Affairs, 2008.
Perkovich, G. India’s Nuclear Bomb: The Impact on Global Proliferation. Berkeley: University of
California Press, 1999.
Steger, D. P. Redesigning the World Trade Organization for the Twenty-first Century. Waterloo, Ontario:
Wilfrid Laurier University Press/CIGI/IDRC, 2010.
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