eMarketer’s Analysts Explain Mary Meeker’s '2019 Internet ... · 1 eMarketer’s Analysts...
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1eMarketer’sAnalystsExplainMaryMeeker’s'2019InternetTrendsReport':Fivehighlightsandfivechartsonprivate…
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eMarketer’sAnalystsExplainMaryMeeker’s'2019InternetTrendsReport'Fivehighlightsandfivechartsonprivatemessaging,ecommerceandsocialmedia
ARTICLE JUNE21,2019
AmyHe
aryMeeker,“queenoftheinternet”andventurecapitalistat
BondCapital,releasedherhighlyanticipatedannual“Internet
TrendsReport”andtouchedoneverythingfromdigitalmediausagein
theUStoconsumerconfidenceinChinainthe333-slidepresentation
shegaveattheRecodeCodeConferenceearlierthismonth.
Acoupleofitemsstoodouttous,soweofferouranalysisonfiveof
Meeker’sconclusions.
APrivateMessagingMovementintheUS?NotSoFast
ByDebraAhoWilliamson,principalanalystcoveringsocialmedia
Isencryptionreallywhatconsumerscaremostaboutwhenitcomesto
privatemessagingapps?Onslide168ofherpresentation,Meeker
pairstwochartsinadiscussionofprivacyconcernsimpactinginternet
usage.ThechartontheleftshowsthegrowthinworldwideMAUsfor
messagingservicesandplacesfullyencryptedservicesTelegram,
iMessageandWhatsAppatthetopofthechart,withTwitterand
WeChat,whichdonotofferend-to-endencryption,atthebottom.
FacebookMessenger,InstagramandGmail,whichoffereitheroptional
2eMarketer’sAnalystsExplainMaryMeeker’s'2019InternetTrendsReport':Fivehighlightsandfivechartsonprivate…
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orannouncedend-to-endencryptioncapabilities,areshownin
between.Theotherchart,fromsecurityservicescompanyFortinet,
showstheamountofglobalwebtrafficthatisencryptedhasrisen
from53%inQ12016to87%inQ12019.
Theimpliedtakeawayfromthesechartsisthatconsumersare
becomingmoreinclinedtoseekoutprivatewaysofcommunicating.
But,theproblemisthatthesechartsareunrelated.TheMAUchart
showsdataonlythrough2017,andMessengerandInstagramdidn’t
announcetheirplanstoaddencryptionuntilthisyear.Byplacing
serviceswithsmallerMAUcounts(Telegram,iMessage)atthetop,
thatchartimpliesthatthepresenceofend-to-endencryptionisdriving
usagegrowth.
TheFortinetdata,meanwhile,showsthepercentageofwebtrafficthat
usesHTTPSasasecurityprotocol,andassuch,itismoreofa
reflectionofchangingcorporatesecurityneedsasmobiletraffichas
increased,ratherthanconsumers’desireforprivacy.
Webelievethattimespentinmobilemessaging,atleastintheUS,will
remainwellundertimespentinsocialnetworks.
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Andwhileit’struethatmobilemessagingappusageisrising,it’snot
necessarilybecauseofthepresenceofencryption.Thisyear,therewill
be2.3billionmobilemessagingappusersworldwide,up9.2%over
2018,accordingtoourforecast.However,63%ofuserswillbein
China,wherethegovernmentintenselyregulatesencryption.
TechCompaniesinLatinAmerica’sPrivateSectorStepinto
BolstertheDigitalEconomy
ByMatteoCeurvels,researchanalystcoveringLatAmandSpain
AsmoreconsumersinLatinAmericacomeonlineandtakepartinthe
digitaleconomy,technologycompaniesintheregion’sprivatesector
haveplayedafundamentalroleinbolsteringacultureofecommerce.
InMeeker’sreport,wegetaninterestinglookathowplayerslikeRappi
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haveultimatelyreshapedthewayconsumerstransactonline.
LatinAmericaishometocountrieswithsomeoftheworld’sworst
traffic.Formany,asimpletriptothestorecouldturnintoawholeday
affair—takingintoconsiderationthetimeittakestogofrompointAto
pointBincripplingtraffic.
Butasconsumers’purchasingpowercontinuestogrow,manyare
nowturningtoon-demand,last-miledeliverystartups—likeRappi,
GlovoandUberEatstonameafew—toseekoutconvenientwaysto
getproductsdeliveredwithouthavingtoventureoutintogrueling,
gridlocktraffic.
Inparticular,Rappioffersconsumersaquickandefficientwaytofulfill
theirordersbycapitalizingontheregion’slongstandingbikeculture.
Byofferingconsumerstheabilitytogetanythingdeliveredinfewer
than30minutesforlessthanadollar,monthlyordershave
experiencedyear-over-year,exponentialgrowth.Asaresult,Rappiis
nowoneofthelatestLatinAmericanstartupstoachieve“unicorn”
status—thatis,aprivatelyheldstartupcompanyvaluedover$1billion.
TheRiseofPinduoduoandtheConsumer-to-Manufacturer
ModelinChina
ByMan-ChungCheung,researchanalystcoveringChina,Japan,and
APAC
5eMarketer’sAnalystsExplainMaryMeeker’s'2019InternetTrendsReport':Fivehighlightsandfivechartsonprivate…
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Meeker’spresentationidentifiesthe“consumer-to-manufacturer”
model(slide57)that’sveryquicklyfindinggroundinChina’s
ecommercespace,beitonAlibaba’sTaobaoLive,Kuaishouor
Mogujie.Underthismodel,digitalshoppersinteractdirectlywith
merchandisemanufacturersorbrandsvialivestreamtoexpresstheir
preferencesforitems.Theseideasanddataareharnessedandapplied
totheproductionprocess,makinghighlevelsofpersonalization
possible.
Thenextstepistoincorporateautomationtoincreaseefficiencyand
drivedowncost.Eventually,wewillseeanend-to-enddigitizationand
fullinterconnectednessofthesupplychain,andthatmayhappenin
Chinafirst.
Relatedtotheconsumer-to-manufacturermodelisecommerce
platformPinduoduo,whichallowsusersandtheircontactstoshopas
agrouptogetthelowestpricesonproducts.Theecommerceretailer
knowsexactlywhichbuttonstopushtomotivateshopperstobuy:
ConsumersinChinatrustword-of-mouthrecommendations,whichis
whysocialcommerceworkssowell.
Pinduoduogetsdigitalbuyerstosharetheirdesireditemsonsocial
withtheirfriendsinordertogetabetterprice.Pop-upbanners
constantlyflashontopofthescreenalertingshopperstowhatothers
arebuying,tappingintoconsumers’fearofmissingout.Andthe
extremelyaffordablepricingensuresconsumerscomebackoften.
WeestimatethatPinduoduo’sretailecommercesaleswillbe$141.45
billionthisyearandgrow63.5%nextyeartoreach$231.24billionnext
year.
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TheFragmentationofMediaConsumptionintheUS
ByRossBenes,analystcoveringvideo
Meekerhighlightstheincreasinguseofsecondscreens(slide38),
whichunderscoreshowpeople’sfragmentedmediaconsumptionis
disruptingthewaymarketersapproachTVadvertising.AsTV
marketersstruggletodeterminethebestwaytodobranding,more
willturntocross-devicetargeting.
Furthermore,thegrowingamountoftimethatpeoplespendstreaming
digitalvideosthroughtheirphones,computersandTVsetsisblurring
thedistinctionbetweendigitalvideoandTV.Tosomepeople,the
definitionofTVhasbecomeanexistentialtopicnowthatordinary
usersandadvertisersarefocusingoninternet-enabledTVviewing.
AndalthoughdigitalvideoisgainingtractionatthesametimethatTV
isbecomingmoredata-driven,it’salsoworthrecognizingthat
traditionallinearTVhasn’tgoneaway;itstillaccountsforahefty
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chunkofoverallwatchtime.WeestimatethatUSconsumerswill
spend4hours,7minutesonTVthisyear,and2hours,13minuteson
digitalvideo.
AreImagesReplacingtheWrittenWord?
ByMarkDolliver,principalanalystcoveringdemographics
Associalmediahasevolved,somepeopleareincreasinglyinclinedto
shareimagesinsteadofwrittenwords.Thisisatrendwehavenoted
incoveringtheriseofplatformslikeInstagramandSnapchat.
Meeker’spresentationtouchedonthetopicwithdataonsteeprisesin
imagecreationandsharing,alongwithincreasingsophisticationof
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imageusageonvenueslikePinterestandInstagram—slides79and80
—thelatterofwhichhasseenasteadilyincreasinguserbase,and
whichweestimatewillhave117.2millionusersby2021.
Butoneofthemoststrikingslideshadnoimagesatall—justwords
(slide86),notingthat“ourbrainsarewiredforimages”andincludeda
referencetowritingas“ahack,adetour.”
Well,yes,butit’sa“detour”centraltotheemergenceofadvanced
humancivilization.Ifimagesaredisplacingthewrittenword,the
implicationsextendwellbeyondtechnologyusageorhowsociety
shapesitself.Amongotherthings,itportendsaninternet-agedivision
between“haves”and“havenots”—inthiscase,betweenpeoplewho
havealotofinformationandthosewhodon’t.
Ithardlyneedstobesaidthatdigitaltechnologyenablespeopleto
gatherunprecedentedamountsofinformationandeven(sometimes)
synthesizethatinformationintogenuineknowledge.Plentyofpeople
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—Meekeramongthem—willcontinuetousedigitalinthatway.But
wedoseeadriftinwhichthewrittenwordmatterslesstolotsof
peopleastheyfinditmorefuntofocusonimages.Granted,most
peoplewilldosomeofeach.Butthemanyforwhomwrittenwords
becomeanunlovedsecondchoicewillleadlower-informationlives,at
leastinrelationtothosewhostillgravitatetowardthewrittenword.