Electromobility: a trigger for market success of carsharing? · 2020-02-19 · 4 Current project...
Transcript of Electromobility: a trigger for market success of carsharing? · 2020-02-19 · 4 Current project...
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Electromobility: a trigger for market
success of carsharing?
Webinar - Our Future Mobility Now
27 February 2012
Peter Kasten
Oeko-Institut e.V., Berlin
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Oeko-Institut is a leading European research and consultancy institute
based in Germany which is working for a sustainable future.
» founded in 1977, non-profit association
» offices in Freiburg, Darmstadt and Berlin
» more than 130 staff, including 85 researchers
» more than 300 national and international projects per year
» clients: European Union, ministries, industrial companies, non-
governmental organisations
» annual turnover: approx. 12 million Euro
Oeko - Institut
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Overview of past research projects
» OPTUM:
» user acceptance, market potential and environmental effects of electric
mobility (BEV & PHEV) in Germany by 2030
» Future Fleet:
» accompanying research on integration of EVs in SAP’s company fleet
» E-Mobility Berlin:
» accompanying research of the “Smart ed” fleet test in Berlin (in
cooperation with Daimler Corp.)
» OPTUM Resources:
» global impact of electric mobility on availability of rare resources and
potential recycling strategies
» LiBRi:
» development of recycling strategies for lithium-ion batteries
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Current project – E-Mob 2050
» E-Mob 2050:
» research project (09/2011-09/2013) funded by BMU
» main goals:
» long term market potential of electric and fuel cell vehicles in Germany
until 2050
» impact of changes in mobility behaviour and of new mobility services
on the market potential of EVs / FCVs
» consideration of long term development of the German power sector
(with a high share of fluctuating renewable energy generation)
» modelling of the long term interaction of EV use and power generation
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Why talking about sustainable mobility?
» EU GHG emission target 2050: CO2 emission reduction of more than 80 % compared to 1990 emissions
» growing share of transport sector emissions: ~ 25 %
» high relevance of road traffic
» no „easy“ options in the transport sector
» CO2 emission reduction measures:
» technology development
» alternative (less CO2-intensive) fuels
» change in mobility behaviour, need of new mobility offers
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How cars are used today?
» ~ 50 % of car owners use it 3 times a week or less
» average trip distance: ~ 15 km
» average car usage time per day: ~ 1 h
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0 20 40 60 80 100
sh
are
of
ca
rs
daily mileage [km]
Source: infas, DLR: MiD 2008
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Market potential of electromobility
» study: OPTUM – optimising the environmental benefit of electric vehicles
» project partners: Oeko – Institut (lead), ISOE (user acceptance analysis)
» stakeholder process: stakeholders from industry, consumer groups and NGOs
» market scenario until 2030 derived from user acceptance survey (conjoint analysis) and today‘s car usage patterns (MiD 2008)
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Example: conjoint task
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0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
small car mid-size car large car
mar
ket
po
ten
tial
CV
PHEV
BEV
Market simulation (conjoint analysis)
Source: OPTUM
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0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Pas
sen
ger
cars
in m
illio
ns
PHEV (large)
PHEV (mid-size)
PHEV (small)
BEV (mid-size)
BEV (small)
City-BEV (mini)
EV market scenario
Passenger cars 2020:
473,000 PHEV
57,000 BEV
8,000 City BEV
Total: 538,000
Passenger cars 2030:
5,080,000 PHEV
700,000 BEV
90,000 City BEV
Total: 5,870,000
1 million electric
cars
German government targets:
2020: 1 million electric vehicles
2030: 6 million electric vehicles
Source: OPTUM
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User acceptance & environmental
awareness
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
small car mid-size car
BE
V m
ark
et
sh
are
[%
]
high environmentalawareness
rather high environmentalawareness
rather low environmentalawareness
low environmentalawareness
Source: OPTUM
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user acceptance & access to public
transport
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
small car mid-size car
BE
V m
ark
et
sh
are
[%
]
always easy
rather easy
rather difficult
always easy
Source: OPTUM
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intermodal mobility concepts without
car ownership I
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
high acceptance rather highacceptance (maybe)
rather low & noacceptance
resp
on
de
nt
shar
e [
%]
small car
mid-size car
large car
Source: OPTUM
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
small car mid-size car large car
acce
pta
nce
(ye
s +
may
be
) [%
]
18 - 29
30 - 39
40 - 49
50 - 59
60 - 69
70+
intermodal mobility concepts without
car ownership & age Source: OPTUM
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
acceptance (yes +maybe)
rather lowacceptance
low acceptance
BEV
mar
ket
shar
e [
%]
small car
mid-size car
user acceptance & intermodal mobility
concept Source: OPTUM
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Electromobility & carsharing
» market scenario: domination of PHEVs due to range restrictions of BEVs
» development of BEV market: intermodal mobility concept (incl. carsharing)
» increased acceptance for BEVs when
» high environmental awareness
» easy access to public transport
» positive attitude toward intermodal mobility concept
» benefit of low operating costs is intensified due to carsharing
The future market success of BEVs requires strong link to other mobility options. At the same time, electromobility might be the starting point for the development and stronger acceptance of intermodal mobility concepts incl. carsharing.
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Peter Kasten
Infrastructure & Enterprises Division Berlin office
Schicklerstraße 5-7 10179 Berlin
[email protected] www.oeko.de