Electrification Strategy...Ali Nourai and Chris Schafer, IEEE Power and Energy Magazine, Jul 2009 3...

11/12/2020

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Living Without Oil Seminar Series

Andrew Rowe

UVRA Living Without Oil Oct 17, 2020 1

Decarbonization Pathways – Electrification and Storage

The Electrification Strategy

UVRA Living Without Oil Oct 17, 2020

“The most plausible way to reduce global CO2 emissions is … to increase the role of very low carbon technologies in electricity generation and to increase the use of

electricity in transportation and heating.”

Schmalensee, Energy Economics, 52 (2015)

“…there is no single technology that can be said to be the cheapest under all circumstances.

[…] system costs, market structure, policy environment and resource endowment all continue to play an important role in determining the [value] of any given

investment."

IEA, Projected Costs of Generating Electricity 2015 edition

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Canada’s Advantage



OC O

OCO

OC O

Of course it will work…

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Energy System Pathways


Economic Technology Policy

Scenario Analysis

Resources

Demand

Regional Characteristics

The Future

Today

5

Resiliency Analysis

Risks Uncertainty

System Analysis

Pathways to 2060

Structure

Cost

Emissions

Robustness

Pathways to 2060

Structure

Cost

Emissions

Robustness

Electricity System 101


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7UVRA Living Without Oil Oct 17, 2020

Electricity Demand

• What is at the end of the line and how does it behave?

Time

D [MW]

Time

Demand [MW]

Net

Internal

AdequacyReserve Margin

Demand Response

Peak Hour


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Regional Demand Profiles

• Air‐conditioning equipment is used in 87% of homes in the United States.

• The daily U.S. load cycle in the summer has a much wider range than in the winter because of the widespread use of air conditioning.


The Goal – instantaneous supply matching demand


Supply Technology Demand

Time

b

aEnergy a = Energy bCost a = Cost b

Value of b > Value of a

Control demand?Integrate with another region?

Curtail supplyIntroduce storage?(Impact on cost?)

Time

Q

• How does the addition of one option affect the entire system?

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Low Carbon Supply Options to Serve Demand


Resources Reservoirs Generators DemandGrid

Natural Gas

Mill Waste

Forest Debris

Timber

Geothermal

Hydro 4

Wind

Solar

Hydro 1

Hydro 2

Hydro 3

Other

WIL

DIN

Site‐C

REV

KIN

CCGT

CCGT‐CCS

OCGT

Biomass

Wind 1

Solar 1

Geothermal 1

Run‐of‐river

REV

MCS

GMS

PCN

Site‐C

Solar 2

Wind 2

Other

Electricity

AESOMid‐C

Industrial

Commercial

Residential

Long‐term mixture planning with variable energy resources (VER)

Lecture El3 ‐Mixtures, Merit, and Markets (C) A. Rowe 12

Time

L [MW]

Time Series of Demand

Capacity Factor

cT

[$/kWc‐yr]

Generator Cost Curves

12

3

Fraction of year (or, hours per year)

L[MW]

Residual LDC

Time

R [MW]

Time Series of VER

Generator Type

Mixture Composition

GCapacity[kWc]

1 2 3R

Time

L’ [MW]

Residual Load

L t L t R t L – R = L’

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Alberta (AESO) Electrical Supply

Lecture El3 - Mixtures, Merit, and Markets (C) A. Rowe 13

MSA 2017 Second Quarter Report https://albertamsa.ca/index.php?page=quarterly-reports


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Transmission and Interconnections


http://www.eia.gov/beta/realtime_grid/#/summary/about?end=20160724&start=20160625&regions=01

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Electrification Step 1 – decarbonize generation


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Renewable Resources ‐ Variability(April 1, 2017 – May 30, 2017 ‐ Video)

BC WindCAISO Solar BPA Wind

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Courtesy of POWEREX


Solar vs. Wind Generation – One Year

Each line represents one day, line colors by month, Feb 8, 2017 – Feb 8, 2018

Hour Beginning Hour Beginning

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CAISO Solar BPA Wind

Courtesy of POWEREX


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Aggregated Effect on System


CAISO ‐demand minus solar and wind


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Challenges of large VER additions

• Low capacity credit, cannot reduce conventional capacity• Baseload hours reduced – low cost generation hours• Excess supply – curtailment, negative prices


F. Ueckerdt et al., Energy 63 (2013)


<http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jul/10/denmark‐wind‐windfarm‐power‐exceed‐electricity‐demand>

Wind power generates 140% of Denmark's electricity demand

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28 July 2015 0:02 am


Imports are 50% of Denmark's electricity demand

Curtailment and Negative Electricity Prices


0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

5/1/2014

9/1/2014

1/1/2015

5/1/2015

9/1/2015

1/1/2016

5/1/2016

9/1/2016

1/1/2017

5/1/2017

9/1/2017

1/1/2018

5/1/2018

9/1/2018

1/1/2019

5/1/2019

9/1/2019

1/1/2020

Curtailed Energy [MWh]

Month Beginning

CAISO ‐Wind and Solar Curtailment [MWh]

• Europe negative power prices first nine months of 2020,

– excess power in the market resulting in consumers being paid rather than charged to use electricity.

• Frequency of negative day‐ahead prices three to four times higher than those seen between 2015 and 2018, and more than twice those in 2019.

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CAISO – supply and flexibility


Electrification Step 2 – Shift Service Technologies


Resources Reservoirs Generators DemandGrid

Natural Gas

Mill Waste

Forest Debris

Timber

Geothermal

Hydro 4

Wind

Solar

Hydro 1

Hydro 2

Hydro 3

Other

WIL

DIN

Site‐C

REV

KIN

CCGT

CCGT‐CCS

OCGT

Biomass

Wind 1

Solar 1

Geothermal 1

Run‐of‐river

REV

MCS

GMS

PCN

Site‐C

Solar 2

Wind 2

Other

Electricity

AESOMid‐C

Industrial

Commercial

Residential

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2013 Secondary Energy


[20] http://oee.nrcan.gc.ca/corporate/statistics/neud/dpa/showTable.cfm?type=CP&sector=tran&juris=ca&rn=8&page=0

0

50

100

150

200

Transportation energy use Electricity demand

Energy dem

and [TW

h]

Other

Heavy duty gasoline

Off road diesel

Heavy duty diesel

Light duty gasoline

Electricity demand

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Transportation energy use Electricity demandEnergy dem

and [TW

h]

OtherAviationNavigationOff road dieselHeavy duty dieselLight duty gasolineElectricity demand

Alberta B.C.

Transportation in Canada


Electrified Demand~50 TWh

Natural Resources Canada

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Electrifying Heat – Energy Demand

• US Heat Demand– equivalent ~50% of other electrical demand.

• End‐use technology efficiencies could make electrical demand similar to current electrical demand.

• Temporal patterns make the required electrical capacity much higher.


D. B. Fox et al., Energy and Environmental Science, Issue 10, 2011.

Future Electricity Demand


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Capacity, Energy, Flexibility


Electrification Step 3 – gas and chemical fuels


Electricity

AESO

Mid‐C

Industrial

Commercial

Residential

CH4

IPP

BCH

Blue‐H2CO2

Methanation

Green H2

Biogas

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Electrification Step 4 – make it work

• Control Supply– curtail– excess capacity– dispatchability– flexibility

• Control Demand– constrained resource, uncertain– acceptance?

• Trade– use transmission system

• Storage


ESDemand(t) Supply(t)

Trade

Charting feasible pathways to sustainable energy systems

www.iesvic.uvic.ca


1

Living Without Oil Seminar Series

Andrew Rowe

Decarbonization Pathways – Electrification and Storage Part II

The Energy System Architecture

Demand

x(t)Service

TechnologiesEnergy

CurrenciesTransformer Technologies

Supply

y(t)


Stock StockStock

• Stored sources allow temporal and spatial decoupling between steps in energy chain– Storage always there, but somewhat hidden as Nature has taken care of this for us…– Now want to use dynamic sources

• Spatial and temporal connections as well as transformations

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Where can we get flexibility?


DNV GL White Paper 2017, Flexibility in the Power System

Grid Storage


Ali Nourai and Chris Schafer, IEEE Power and Energy Magazine, Jul 2009

3

Pumped Hydro

• Efficiency includes both conversion efficiency and storage losses.– Storage losses due to evaporation and seepage

– Most modern PHS plants operate with round trip efficiencies of 75–80%

• Ideal PHS sites are often well away from load centers – resulting in transmission losses.


US Pumped Hydro


P. Denholm, G. Kulcinski, Energy Conversion and Management 45 (2000) 2153-2172

Uprated → 3000

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Pumped Hydro Storage


Brinkman, Eberle, Formanski, Matthe, “Vehicle Electrification – Quo Vadis”, GM Global R&D, April 2012

Pumped Hydro Storage


Brinkman, Eberle, Formanski, Matthe, “Vehicle Electrification – Quo Vadis”, GM Global R&D, April 2012

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Compressed Air Energy Storage

• Consumes less than 40% of the gas used in a combined‐cycle and 60% less gas than is used by a single‐cycle gas turbine

• Can be in service in 15 min


Power to Gas

• Power to gas (P2G): make fuel and,a) inject H2 into NG system (up to 15% requires minimal changes)b) Methanization of H2 to CH4 – inject into NG system


HeatH2O

H2e‐ ElectrolysisElectricity

CH4

CO2Digester/Landfill Gas

H2

CH4Methanation

Vehicles

Gas Grid

O2

H2O

6

Cavern Storage (CH4, H2, air)


Cavern storage of H2

An average salt cavern can be charged at over 1 GW for 10 days. As of 2010 there were over 170 caverns in Germany (for natural gas.)


Includes e – H2 conversion efficiency of 65%

This much power could be fed to a single H2 storage cavern facility (240 GWh)

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Power to Gas to fuel…


Liquid Air


Stamatios et al., 2017 Applied Energy

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Electrochemical Batteries


Lazard 2018 Levelized Cost of Storage Analysis

Flow Batteries


Stamatios et al., 2017 Applied Energy

From VanIon Energy Inc.

9


2.3

2

1.3

0.8

3.2

5

6

8.7

6

4.4

1.4

1.45

0.84

0.17

0.14

0.1

0.05

0.001

0 2 4 6 8 10

Liquid H2 (20 K, 1 atm)

H2 (1500 atm)

H2 (700 atm)

H2 (350 atm)

CH4 (350 atm)

CH4 (1000 atm)

Liquid CH4 (112 K, 1atm)

C8H18 (gasoline)

CH3CH2OH (ethanol)

CH3OH (methanol)

Flywheel (10 GPa C-fibre)

NiMH batteries (LaNi5H6)

Lead-acid batteries (PbO2-H2SO4)

Liquid Air (79 K, 1 atm)

Compressed air (1500 atm)



Elevated water (370 m)

Volumetric Energy Density (kW-hr/L)

Gross (LHV)

Deliverable Energy

33

33

33

33

14

14

14

12.3

7.4

5.5

0.8

0.28

0.25

0.22

0.17

0.16

0.14

0.001

010203040

Gravimetric Density (kW-hr/kg)

Liquid H2 (20 K, 1 atm)

H2 (1500 atm)

H2 (700 atm)

H2 (350 atm)

CH4 (350 atm)

CH4 (1000 atm)

Liquid CH4 (112 K, 1atm)

C8H18 (gasoline)

CH3CH2OH (ethanol)

CH3OH (methanol)

Flywheel (10 GPa C-fibre)

NiMH batteries (LaNi5H6)

Lead-acid batteries (PbO2-H2SO4)

Liquid Air (79 K, 1 atm)




Elevated water (370 m)

Deliverable energy densities assume efficiencies of 60% for hydrogen (fuel cells) and 40% for hydrocarbon fuels (IC Engine).

Berry, G., et al, Hydrogen Storage and Transportation , Encyclopedia of Energy

Current Li-ion batteries~ 0.4-0.6 kWh/L

Current Li-ion batteries~ 0.1-0.3 kWh/kg

Schmuch et al 2018, Nature Energy

Material Limit ~1 kWh/kg ?

Material Limit ~5 kWh/l ?

Electrode ~.3-.6 kWh/kg

Electrode ~1-1.5 kWh/l ?

Steven J. Davis et al. Science 2018;360:eaas9793

Part II – Grid Storage Cost


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Storage Cost and Value

• The recurring question of value is one facing users and developers of storage.– Value determined by cost, system characteristics, use cases, and other available options

(curtailment, demand response, trade, …)

– The unicorn of strorage = “value stacking”• What services, “use cases”. Try to combine/deliver multiple value streams

– Total system cost change for delivery of service• Is marginal cost of storage less than savings by addition of intermittent supply?

• Storage cost– Per unit power, per unit energy?…

• What about losses and finite discharge/charge rates?– Can we predict when it will be needed to dispatch storage effectively?


Grid Storage Services and Characteristics


Schmidt 2019 Projecting the Future Levelized Cost of Electricity Storage Technologies, Joule, 3, 81-100, Jan 2019

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Cost reductions due to learning



Annual Cost of Storage → LCOS


Annual($/yr)

Technical

Efficiency(Degradation)

WACCRated Energy

Depth of Discharge

Financial

Fix

ed C

ost

sV

ari

able

Cos

ts

Overnight Cost($/kWc,$/kWhs)

Fixed O&M($/kW, $/kWh)

Variable O&M($,kW, $/kWh)

Fuel Cost($/kWh)

Capital Cost($/yr)

Fixed O&M($/yr

Variable O&M($/yr)

Fuel Cost($/yr)

Annual Fuel Cost

($/year)

Amortized ($/year)

Rated Power

Annual FOM($/year)

Capital Cost($) Energy

Costs($/kWhd)

Annual VOM($/year)

Cycles

Energy Discharged(kWh/year)

Energy Consumed(kWh/year)

Power Costs

($/kWc)

AncillaryServices ($/kWcyr)

LCOS($/X)

Characteristics

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Storage


R – Renewable power suppliesL – Loads/DemandsS – Storage systemsG – Dispatchable generatorsI – Interconnections

Distribution SystemRi,j(t) Li,j(t)

Ii,j,k(t)

Si,j(t) Gi,j(t)

Experience Curve Effects


Schmidt 2017 The Future costs Levelized Cost of Electrical energy storage based on experience rates, Nature Energy, 2, 2017

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Storage LCOS Ranking



Summary

• Flexibility requirements increasing due to a number of different supply and demand factors

• In principle, storage provides a range of services

• Can be located near supply or demand

• Availability (storage dispatch), degradation, round‐trip efficiency may reduce to value relative to other flexibility options

• Cost of storage (investment) and cost of storage not the same, but difficult to tell them apart


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Electrification Strategy...Ali Nourai and Chris Schafer, IEEE Power and Energy Magazine, Jul 2009 3...

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