Electrification of the Canadian road transportation sector: A 2050 outlook with TIMES-Canada
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Transcript of Electrification of the Canadian road transportation sector: A 2050 outlook with TIMES-Canada
ELECTRIFICATION OF THE CANADIAN ROAD TRANSPORTATION SECTOR: A 2050 OUTLOOK WITH TIMES-CANADA
Energy and Environment (E2G) TeamGERAD Research CenterMontreal, QC, Canada
International Energy Workshop, June 21st , 2012
Context and objectives
Contribution of the transportation sector to final energy consumption and CO2 emissions is more important than the world average.
Geographic considerations are responsible for these trends.
Different options are considered Measures to reduce transportation demand Policies to reduce the reliance on fossil fuels and/or to
promote the deployment of clean vehicles
The aim of this paper is to compare effects of climate and energy policies on the transportation sector, more specifically: To analyze the impacts of GHG reduction targets on the
deployment of clean vehicles; To assess the consequences of imposing clean vehicle
penetration targets on fossil fuel consumption, electricity generation and GHG emissions.
The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES)
Combine advanced versions of MARKAL and EFOM models
Used by 80 institutions in nearly 70 countries (ETSAP, IEA)
Linear programming bottom-up energy models Integrated modeling of the entire energy system GHG emissions from fuel combustion and processes Prospective analysis on a long term horizon (50-100
yrs) Demand driven (exogenous) in physical units Price-elasticities for end-use demands
Partial and dynamic equilibrium on perfect energy markets
Main output: Optimal technology selection Obj-function: Minimizing the net total cost of the
energy system Environmental constraints (GHG emission limits)
TIMES-Canada
Base year: 2007Horizon: 2050 (energy) Horizon: 2100 (climate)
Regions: 13 provinces and territories
Time slices- 4 seasons: Spring, Summer, Fall, Winter- 3 day periods: Day, Night, Peak
Start Mid End Length
1 2007 2007 2007 12 2008 2008 2009 23 2010 2010 2011 24 2012 2012 2013 25 2014 2015 2017 46 2018 2020 2022 57 2023 2025 2027 58 2028 2030 2032 59 2033 2040 2047 15
10 2048 2050 2052 5
Power & Heat Cogeneration PlantsThermal, NuclearRenewables, Biomass
International ExportsCrude oil, RPP, Biomass Gas, Coal, H2, LNG
Domestic Trades- Pipelines- Transmission
IND (8) - Tons Iron & Steel, Cement Chemicals, Copper
Demand for Energy Service
End-UseTechnologies
Production / ConversionTechnologies
Primary Energy
Primary Energy Final Energy Useful Energy
DM 2050Oil prices (3)Elasticities
DM 2100Growth (2)Elasticities
COM (7) - PJ/m2
Heating, CoolingLighting, Appliances
RSD (20) - PJ/unit Heating, CoolingLighting, Appliances
TRA (16) - Pkm/TkmRoad: short/long dist.Rail, Marine, Air
AGR (1) - PJ
IND ProductionFurnaces, BoilersMachinery
COM ServicesFurnaces, AC,Fluorescents, Etc.
RSD DwellingsHeat Pumps, LampsFreezers, Ranges
TRA VehiclesCars, trucks, busesTrains, Ships, Planes
-TrucksAGR Process
Refineries
Hydrogen Plants
Biomass PlantsSolid: pellet, woodLiquid: biofuelsGaseous: biogas
Coke Plants
Renewable Potentials Hydro, Wave, TidalWind, Solar, GeoOcean Thermal & Salinity
Biomass PotentialsCrops: Starch, Oilseeds Greasy residuesLignocellulosic sourcesDedicated cropsWaste, Biogas, Algae
Fossil Fuel ReservesConventional & Oil sandsCrude oil, Gas, Coal
Uranium & Lithium Reserves
ScenariosEnergy policiesClimate policies
International ImportsCrude oil, RPP, Biomass Gas, Coal, H2
GHG EmissionsCombustion, Process
CCS
LNG Regasification
CAC Emissions
Extraction Oil, Gas, Coal
LNG Liquefaction
LNG Imports
CCS
Carbon sequestrationEOR, Aquifers, Afforestation
Driver growth projections, 2007-2050
2007
2011
2015
2019
2023
2027
2031
2035
2039
2043
2047
0
50
100
150
200
250
NEB 2009 CentralNEB 2009 LowNEB 2009 HighCEO 2006 CentralIEO 2010 CentralIEO 2010 LowIEO 2010 HighWEO 2010 ReferenceWEO 2010 PolicyWEO 2010 Policy
$U
S 2
00
8 /
ba
rre
l
Final energy consumption, 2007-2050 (PJ)
AB
BC
MB
SK
ON
QC
NB
NL
NS
PE
WEST CENT
EAST NORTH
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
RenewableOilGasElectricityCoalBiomass
PJ
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Trans-portationResidentialIndustrialCommercialAgriculture
PJ
Re-new-ableOilGasElectric-ityCoalBiomass
TRPSA (M Pkms - Long dist.) TRPSB (M Pkms - Short dist.)
Passenger, Small cars
TRPLA (M Pkms - Long dist.) TRPLB (M Pkms - Short dist)
Passenger, Large cars
TRPT (M Pkms) Passenger, Light trucks
TRFT (M Tkms) Freight, Light trucks
TRFM (M Tkms) Freight, Medium trucks
TRFH (M Tkms) Freight, Heavy trucks
TRPU (M Pkms) Passenger, Urban buses
TRPI (M Pkms) Passenger, Intercity buses
TRPC (M Pkms) Passenger, School buses
TRPM (M Pkms) Passenger, Motos
TRPO (M Pkms)
Passenger, Off road
TTPA (M Pkms) Passenger, Trains
TTFR (M Tkms) Freight, Trains
TAPA (PJ) Passenger, Airplanes
TAFR (PJ)Freight, Airplanes
TMAL (PJ)All, Ships
Ga
so
lin
e
Die
se
l
NG
Ls
Na
tura
l g
as
Ele
ctr
icit
y
Eth
an
ol
Bio
sd
ies
el
Me
tha
no
l
Bio
-dim
ety
l
Av
iati
on
ga
s
Je
t fu
els
H f
ue
l o
il
Road
Rail
Air
Marine
H2
-ga
s
H2
-liq
uid
TRPSA
TRPSB
Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Gasoline, CAFE Std.
Ga
so
lin
e
Die
se
l
NG
Ls
Na
tura
l g
as
Ete
ctr
icit
y
Eth
an
ol
Bio
die
se
l
Me
tha
no
l
Bio
-dim
ety
l
Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Gasoline, CAFE 3.5 MPG.
Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Gasoline, CAFE 7.0 MPG.
Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Diesel, CAFE Std.
Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Diesel, CAFE 3.5 MPG.
Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Diesel, CAFE 7.0 MPG.
Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Natural gas liquids, Std.
Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Natural gas, Std.
Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Ethanol, Std.
Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Ethanol 10%.
Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Ethanol 18%.
Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Biodiesel, Std.
Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Methanol, Std.
Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Bio Dimethyleter, Std.
Passenger, Small cars, HEV, Gasoline Hybrid, Std.
Passenger, Small cars, HEV, Diesel Hybrid, Std.
Passenger, Small cars, Fuel Cell, H2 Gas.
Passenger, Small cars, Fuel Cell, H2 Liquid.
Passenger, Small cars, ICE, H2 Gas.
Passenger, Small cars, ICE, H2 Liquid.
H2
-ga
s
H2
-liq
uid
Fo
ssil
fue
lsB
iofu
els
Hyd
rog
en
TRPSA
TRPSB
Ga
so
lin
eD
ies
el
Ele
ctr
icit
y
Passenger, Small cars, BEV70, Lead Acid
Passenger, Small cars, BEV70, NiMH
Passenger, Small cars, BEV70, Li-Ion
Passenger, Small cars, BEV150, Li-Ion
Passenger, Small cars, BEV200, Li-Ion
Passenger, Small cars, BEV300, Li-Ion
Passenger, Small cars, PHEV20, NiMH
Passenger, Small cars, PHEV20, Li-Ion
Passenger, Small cars, PHEV50, NiMH
Passenger, Small cars, PHEV50, Li-Ion
Passenger, Small cars, PHEV100, Li-Ion
Passenger, Small cars, PHEV200, Li-Ion
Passenger, Small cars, PHEV20, NiMH
Passenger, Small cars, PHEV20, Li-Ion
Passenger, Small cars, PHEV50, NiMH
Passenger, Small cars, PHEV50, Li-Ion
Passenger, Small cars, PHEV100, Li-Ion
Passenger, Small cars, PHEV200, Li-Ion
Ele
ctric
Plu
g-i
n h
ybri
d G
aso
line
Plu
g-i
n h
ybri
d D
iese
l
TELCBAT1, Battery (Storage)
Charging station, Residential, Level 1.2
Charging station, Residential, Level 1.6
Charging station, Residential, Level 6.5
Charging station, Commercial, Level 6.5
Charging station, Commercial, Level 30
Charging station, Commercial, Level 60
Charging station, Public, Level 6.5
Charging station, Public, Level 30
Charging station, Public, Level 60
Electricity from the grid
Level and availability of charging stations
Level 1
Level 2 Level 3 – fast charger
Level 1.11.2 KW50 min/kWh
Level 1.21.6 KW40 min/kWh
Level 26.5 KW10 min/kWh
Level 3.130 KW2.5 min/kWh
Level 3.260 KW1 min/kWh
Example: small passenger cars
Small BEV – 150 (Lithium-Ion)
Capital costs2012: 36,558 $2050: 12,328 $
Battery capacity: 2012: 25 kWh2050: 13 kWh
Example: Mitsubishi i-Miev Range: 150 km
Battery: 16 kWh
Capital cost: 33,000$
Example: small passenger cars (18)
Technology
Battery (start year)
Fuel
Capital cost ($/unit) Efficiency
Start year 2050
ICE(l/
100km)
ELC (km/kW
h)
BEV – 70
Lead (2008)NiMH (2008)Li-Ion (2010)
ELC14,73017,31422,834
8,7499,8497,000
---
5.965.965.96
BEV – 150
Li-Ion (2012) ELC 36,558 12,32
8 - 5.96
BEV – 200
Li-Ion (2014) ELC 45,136 17,78
4 - 5.96
BEV – 300
Li-Ion (2016) ELC 62,290 26,39
4 - 5.96
PHEV – 20
NiMH (2008)
Li-Ion (2010)
ELC & GSLELC & DSTELC & GSLELC & DST
19,10520,355 19,73120,981
9,71310,02
29,0689,377
1.5 7.527.52
PHEV – 50
NiMH (2010)
Li-Ion (2012)
ELC & GSLELC & DSTELC & GSLELC & DST
36,60837,78838,37839,558
18,979
19,560
17,446
18,040
2 6.506.50
PHEV – 100
Li-Ion (2014)
ELC & GSLELC & DST
68,41570,518
32,524
33,603
2.2 6.22
PHEV – 200
Li-Ion (2016)
ELC & GSLELC & DST
128,489132,439
63,205
65,273
2.5 6.08
Scenarios
• BAU: End-use demands projected to the 2020 horizon using socio-economic drivers of the National Energy Board and then extended to 2050 using a regression approach.
• CLIM: GHG reduction commitments that have been taken by provincial governments (with the federal target for the territories.
• EVP: Electric vehicles penetration targets for road transportation
Province Reference year Target for 2020 Target for 2050Alberta 2005 5% 14%British Colombia 2007 33% 50%Manitoba 2005 15% 45%New Brunswick 1990 10% 20%Newfoundland 1990 10% 20%Nova Scotia 1990 10% 20%Ontario 1990 15% 30%Prince Edward Island 1990 10% 20%Quebec 1990 20% 40%Saskatchewan 2006 20% 40%Territories 2005 17% 50%
Year 2020 2030 2040 2050All provinces 5% 18% 31% 44%
End-use demand projections, 2007-2050
2007
2015
2040
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
Trains Off-Road
Motos Urban buses
Intercity buses School buses
Light trucks Large cars - Long distance
Large cars - Short distance
Small cars - Long distance
Small cars - Short distance
M P
km
2007200820102012201520202025203020402050 -
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
Trains
Light trucks
Medium trucks
Heavy trucks
M T
km
Final energy consumption, 2007-2050 (PJ)
2007
2008
2010
2012
2015
2020
2025
2030
2040
2050
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Hydrogen
Natural gas and NGL
Heavy Fuel Oil
Gasoline
Electricity
Diesel
Biofuels
Aviation fuels
PJ
BAU 200
7BAU
CLIM
202
0EV
PBAU
CLIM
205
0EV
P
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Hydrogen
Natural gas and NGL
Heavy Fuel Oil
Gasoline
Electricity
Diesel
Biofuels
Aviation fuels
PJ
GHG emissions, 2007-2050 (Mt CO2-eq)
2007 2008 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050 -
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
BAU CLIM EVP
Mt
CO
2-e
q
AB14%
BC16%
MB4%
NB7%NL
0%NS0%
NT0%
NU0%
ON38%
PE0%
QC17%
SK4%
YT0% AGR
0%COM8%
ELC25%
IND39%
RSD0%
SUP0%
TRA28%
Penetration of vehicles in the climate policy case, 2007-2050
2007 2008 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050 -
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
ICV + fossils fuels ICV + biofuels
HEV PHEV
BEV ICV & FCV + Hydrogen
M P
km
s
2007 2008 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050 -
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
ICV + fossils fuels ICV + biofuels
HEV PHEV
BEV ICV & FCV + Hydrogen
M T
km
s
Penetration of passenger vehicles in all cases, 2007-2050
2007200820102012201520202025203020402050 -
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
BEV BAU BEV CLIM 2020 BEV EVPPHEV BAU PHEV CLIM 2020 PHEV EVP
M P
km
Penetration of passenger vehicles in the climate policy case, 2007-2050
2007
2015
2040
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Small cars - Short distance
Small cars - Long distance
Large cars - Short distance
Large cars - Long distance
Light trucks School busesIntercity buses Urban busesMotos
M P
km
Charging stations and batteries, 2050
Day/Night
Peak Day/Night
Peak Day/Night
Peak Day/Night
Peak
Spring Summer Fall Winter
-
5
10
15
20
OutputInput
Day Night Day Night Day Night Day NightSpring Summer Fall Winter
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Commercial and public Residential
PJ
Investment in new capacity, 2050 (GW)
Thermal Hydro Nuclear Biomass Renewable -
20
40
60
80
100
Installed / Planned Additional - BAU Additional - CLIM
GW
Evolution of costs ($/ kWh) and efficiency (2008=100) for lithium-ion batteries
2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 20480
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
ROPT OPT PESS RPESS
$/k
Wh
2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 20480
102030405060708090
100
ROPT OPT PESS RPESS
Ind
ex:
2008 =
100
Evolution of costs ($/ kWh) for a small all-electric car with a 150 km capacity
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20500
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
ROPT OPT PESS RPESS
Inve
stm
en
t co
st
(Cd
n$
)
Final energy consumption in the transportation sector, 2007-2050 (PJ)
RO
PT
*OP
T*
PES
S
RP
ES
S
RO
PT
*OP
T*
PES
S
RP
ES
S
RO
PT
*OP
T*
PES
S
RP
ES
S
2007 BAU scenarios 2050
CLIM scenarios 2050
EVP scenarios 2050
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
HydrogenNatural gas and NGLGasolineElectricityDieselBiofuels
PJ
Conclusion
Results show that a climate policy would be required to significantly reduce global GHG emissions.
In this context, the use of biofuels can be seen as a transition phase before plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles become competitive (from 2030).
The transportation sector contributes significantly to the GHG reduction effort imposed by the climate policy.
On the long term, alternative vehicles are also part of an optimal solution from an energy security point of view to meet a large part of the additional demand for passenger and freight transportation while limiting petroleum product imports.
Thank you from the E2G team
Postdoc fellowCamille Fertel (GCPDRF)PhD studentYuri AlcocerMaster studentsErik FrenetteHichem GarboujMathilde MarcyYosra NejiNoushin Reisi
Project leaders• Jean-Philippe Waaub• Olivier Bahn• Richard Loulou
Project Coordination• Kathleen Vaillancourt
Research consultants
Amit Kanudia (KanORS-EMR)
Maryse Labriet (ENERIS)
Research project funded by the NSERC of CanadaResearch project funded by the MDEIE of Quebec (link with REACCESS 7th FP-EU)Partners: Resources Natural Canada, Environment Canada, Hydro-QuebecGCPDRF: Government of Canada Post-Doctoral Research Fellowships