Demand Projection for Rural Electrification in Myanmar · Urban electrification takes first...
Transcript of Demand Projection for Rural Electrification in Myanmar · Urban electrification takes first...
Copyright (C) 2014 Policy Alternatives Research Institute, All Rights Reserved.Copyright (C) 2014 Policy Alternatives Research Institute, All Rights Reserved.
Demand Projection for
Rural Electrification in
Myanmar
MASAYUKI SEINO
Policy Alternatives Research Institute,
The University of Tokyo.
Workshop on the Future Direction of Rural Electrification in Myanmar
At Department of Rural Development, The Ministry of Livestock, Fisheries and
Rural Development, NayPyiTaw
[Session 2: The UT's Research]
15:05 - Cost Estimation in Rural Areas in Myanmar by UT
Copyright (C) 2014 Policy Alternatives Research Institute, All Rights Reserved.
Demarcation of international organization
Organi
-zation
Output of study
JICA National Electricity
Plan (2030)
National Power System Expansion Plan
Demand in 2030; Low case
9,100 MW, High case 14,542 MW,
Installed capacity in 2030;
23,594 MW (scenario 3)
WB Rural Electrification
Plan (2030)
Rural electrification plan
Electrification households;
7,236,000, Grid electrification; 99%,
ADB
National Energy Plan
(2035)
National energy development plan
Off-grid RE
Demonstration
Project
Verification test of off-grid
electrification by SHS
Supporting plan for electrification
U-
Tokyo
Advisory Works on
Rural Electrification
Plan
Demand projection in rural area in 2030
Preliminary least cost off-grid
electrification scenario
2
Copyright (C) 2014 Policy Alternatives Research Institute, All Rights Reserved.
Framework of this Research
3
(2) Cost Estimation
(1) Demand Projection
(3) Development of Preliminary Scenarios
Simulate• Optimal system design for representative
demand casesEstimate• Minimum cost for Off-grid electrification(using “HOMER®“ for calculations)
Estimate• Setting target electrification rate (On-
grid + Off-grid) • Medium voltage distribution line area
→ Projection of electrification area (On-grid・Off-grid)
• The number of electrified villages anddemand projection (Off-grid)
Estimate• Total cost to meet off-grid demand
Renewable energy potential
Costs of power generation technologies, etc.
Costs of fuel, etc.
Population
Achievements of rural electrification in
neighboring countries
Power supply plan High voltage transmission
lines extension plan
Copyright (C) 2014 Policy Alternatives Research Institute, All Rights Reserved.
2. Current Situation of electricity access in
Myanmar (as of 2012)
Total demand is 2,075 MW
Household electrification rate is 26%
Total population is estimated about 50.5 million
About 70% of population live in rural area (64,346
villages)
Of 64,346 villages, 17,554 villages are
electrified
Of which 3,802 villages are electrified by grid
Another 13,752 villages are electrified by off-grid
such as mini hydro, biomass(rice husk), diesel
and etc.
45% of household in urban area electrified, but only
18% of household in rural area electrified
4
4
Copyright (C) 2014 Policy Alternatives Research Institute, All Rights Reserved.
Figure 1 Union of Myanmar
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
0 20 40 60 80 100
Dem
an
d
(kW
h/Y
ea
r/H
ou
seo
ld)
Rural area electrification rate (%)
Figure 1 Union of Myanmar
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
0 20 40 60 80 100
Dem
an
d
(kW
h/Y
ea
r/H
ou
seo
ld)
Urban and rural area electrification rate (%)
5
Electrification rate & energy demand
in rural area in 2012
Urban grid
Rural off-grid
Rural un electrifiedUrban
un electrified
Rural grid
Rural grid
Rural off-grid
Urban un electrified
Copyright (C) 2014 Policy Alternatives Research Institute, All Rights Reserved.
3. Demand projection for rural electrification
(1) Setting target household electrification rate
Per capita kWh calculated by JICA MP demand forecast
Estimation of country electrification rate target by per
capita kWh In reference to the example of neighboring
countries
(2) Demand projection conditions
Share of energy for household is set at 42% of the total
energy base on the current actual data in Myanmar
Urban electrification takes first priority and is followed by
rural electrification
Priority to grid electrification within allocated power supply
into each state and region, and off grid electrification
supplements it
• Area of grid electrification by power system expansion
plans of JICA Master Plan and MOEP national grid
expansion (HV line and sub station) plan
1.5%/year of population growth rate by UN data
Even off-grid electrification requires to enable civilized
living in modern society for low income household 6
Copyright (C) 2014 Policy Alternatives Research Institute, All Rights Reserved.
US$
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
kW
h p
er c
apit
a
Electrification rate (% )
Thai
Bhutan
Vietnam
CambodiaBangladesh
LaosPhillippines Sri Lanka
Mongolia
Nepal
Uganda
Malaysia
India
Indonesia
Myanmar
MOEP case
JICA low case
JICA high case
7
Setting target household electrification rate
in 2030 as 70% applying low case
Copyright (C) 2014 Policy Alternatives Research Institute, All Rights Reserved.
Figure 1 Union of Myanmar
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
0 20 40 60 80 100
Dem
an
d
(kW
h/Y
ea
r/H
ou
seh
old
)
Rural area electrification rate (%)
8
Electrification rate & energy demand
in rural area in 2030
Figure 1 Union of Myanmar
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
0 20 40 60 80 100
Dem
an
d
(kW
h/Y
ea
r/H
ou
seo
ld)
Urban and rural area electrification rate (%)
Urban grid
MOEP grid electrification area
Rural grid
Rural off-grid
(Micro-grid)Rural un
electrified
Urban un electrified
Rural gridNational grid electrification area
Rural off-grid
(Micro-grid) Rural un electrified
Copyright (C) 2014 Policy Alternatives Research Institute, All Rights Reserved. 9
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
0 20 40 60 80 100
Dem
an
d (
kW
h/Y
/HH
)
Ayeyrwaddy Electrification rate (%)
Grid
Off-grid
Un electrified
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
0 20 40 60 80 100
Dem
an
d (
kW
h/Y
/HH
)
Bago Electrification rate (%)
Grid Off-grid
Un electrified
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
0 20 40 60 80 100
Dem
an
d (
kW
h/Y
/HH
)
Chin Electrification rate (%)
Off-gridUn electrified
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
0 20 40 60 80 100
Dem
an
d (
kW
h/Y
/HH
)Kachin Electrification rate (%)
Off-gridUn electrified
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
0 20 40 60 80 100
Dem
an
d (
kW
h/Y
/HH
)
Kayar Electrification rate (%)
Grid
Off-grid
Un electrified
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
0 20 40 60 80 100
Dem
an
d (
kW
h/Y
/HH
)
Kayin Electrification rate (%)
Grid Off-grid
Un electrified
Electrification rate in 2030 in State/Region
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
0 20 40 60 80 100
Dem
an
d (
kW
h/Y
/HH
)
Magway Electrification rate (%)
Grid
Off-grid
Un electrified
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
0 20 40 60 80 100
Dem
an
d (
kW
h/Y
/HH
)
Mandalay Electrification rate (%)
Grid
Off-grid
Un electrified
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
0 20 40 60 80 100
Dem
an
d (
kW
h/Y
/HH
)
Mon Electrification rate (%)
Grid
Off-grid
Un electrified
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
0 20 40 60 80 100
Dem
an
d (
kW
h/Y
/HH
)
Rakhine Electrification rate (%)
Off-gridUn electrified
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
0 20 40 60 80 100
Dem
an
d (
kW
h/Y
/HH
)
Sagaing Electrification rate (%)
Grid
Off-grid
Un electrified
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
0 20 40 60 80 100
Dem
an
d (
kW
h/Y
/HH
)
Shan Electrification rate (%)
Grid
Off-grid
Un electrified
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
0 20 40 60 80 100
Dem
an
d (
kW
h/Y
/HH
)Tanintharyi Electrification rate (%)
Grid
Off-grid
Un electrified
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
0 20 40 60 80 100
Dem
an
d (
kW
h/Y
/HH
)
Yangon Electrification rate (%)
Grid
Un electrified
Copyright (C) 2014 Policy Alternatives Research Institute, All Rights Reserved.
4. Conclusion and next step study
(1) Conclusion
Off-grid household electrification rate in 2030 is
16% of total Household, whereas 39% of
household in rural areas will remain un electrified.
Proportions between grid and off-grid
electrification vary widely in rural areas by state
or region because of range of possible grid
electrification area and allocated power supply to
states and regions
To achieve the target electrification rate of 70%
by 2030, 434 MW of off-grid electrification will be
required.
WB Rural Electrification Plan which intends to
cover 99% of whole country area by MV line grid
in 2030, however because of power supply
capacity by the national grid, certain amount of
villages should be electrified by off-grid to
accomplish target electrification rate in 2030 10
Copyright (C) 2014 Policy Alternatives Research Institute, All Rights Reserved. 11
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
0 20 40 60 80 100
Dem
an
d
(kW
h/Y
ear/
Ho
use
hold
)
Rural area electrification rate (%)
Grid
Off-grid Un electrified
SHS ?
(2) Next step study
Utilization of current national census data
(population and number of household in urban and
rural area)
Utilization of geospatial data
Utilization of current data of household demand in
urban and rural area
Left of un electrified areas should be cover by
SHS?
Copyright (C) 2014 Policy Alternatives Research Institute, All Rights Reserved.
Data and information which will
improve our study
12
• Current national census data and
• Geospatial data of villages
• Current data of household and village
electrification rates and demand
• Geospatial data of current and future plan
of transmission line and sub-station
• Standard connection method of HV line
and MV line
• Data of existing and planned small hydro
power
• Data of existing diesel power