Electric Power Infrastructure:Electric Power Infrastructure:Status and Challenges for the Status and Challenges for the FutureFuture

Mark LaubyDirector, Reliability Assessments and Performance Analysis

Owners, Operators, and Users

2005 Energy Policy Act:

• All users, owners, and operators of the bulk-power system shall comply with reliability standards

FERC Rule

• All entities subject to the Commission’s reliability jurisdiction… (users, owners, and operators of the bulk-power system) shall comply with applicable Reliability Standards …

U.S. Energy Policy Act of 2005Reliability Legislation

One industry self-regulatory ERO

FERC oversight

• Delegates authority to set and enforce mandatory standards to ERO

• ERO may delegate authority to regional entities

Standards apply to all users, owners, and operators of bulk power system

Independent governance and compliance program

3

North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC)

Mission: “To ensure the reliability of the North American bulk power system”

• Formed in 1968

• U.S. Electric Reliability Organization

• Working to gain similar recognition in Canada

Regional Entities

United StatesFederal Energy

Regulatory Commission

MexicoComision Reguladora

de Energia

Electric Reliability Organization Overview

Electric ReliabilityOrganization

RegionalEntities

Other ERO Members

Other ERO Members Bulk Power System

Owners, Operators, Users

Bulk Power System Owners, Operators, Users

ReliabilityStandards

ComplianceEnforcement

Reliability Assessment

Government Oversight

Canada NEB, Alberta, British Columbia,

Manitoba, Ontario, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia,

Quebec, and Saskatchewan

NERC OverviewNERC Overview

NERC Organization

President& CEO

President& CEO

Compliance&

OrganizationCertification

Compliance&

OrganizationCertification

Situation Awareness & Infrastructure

Security

Situation Awareness & Infrastructure

Security

StandardsStandards

Training, Education & Personnel

Certification

Training, Education & Personnel

Certification

Information Technology

Information Technology

Legal & Regulatory

Legal & Regulatory

Finance & Accounting

Finance & Accounting

Reliability Assessment & Performance

Analysis

Reliability Assessment & Performance

Analysis

Human Resources

Human Resources

Funding

Funding for ERO and regional delegated functions allocated to load-serving entities• Bulk power system users

• Based on Net Energy for Load (NEL)

ERO will fund regions for delegated functions

Penalties offset costs• Funded regardless of penalty

collections

…and through the “Virtuous Circle”

MeasurePerformance

AnalyzeResults

AssessNeeds

DevelopSolutions

Implement Solutions

MeasurePerformance

AnalyzeResults

AssessNeeds

DevelopSolutions

Implement Solutions

Standards

Enforcement

Readiness Program

Situation Awareness

Training

Assessments

Regional Delegation Agreements

Delegated functions

• Compliance

• Standards

• Organization registration

• Reliability assessment

• Reliability readiness and improvement

Regional consistency is key

• Transparency

• Predictability

• Uniform outcomes

Ensuring Reliability

Standards Development

Compliance

Situation Awareness

Looking Back: Events Analysis

Looking Forward: Emerging Issues

2007 Emerging Issue Recap

Example of Emerging Issue

Wind Resources Integration

NERC Task Force Status & Recommendations

• Background

• Changes needed by Planners and Operators

• R&D Needs

Way Forward

Projected Winter WindTotal Nameplate Capacity

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

ERCOT FRCC MRO NPCC RFC SERC SPP WECC

MW

Existing Planned Proposed

Projected 2008/09 Winter Wind

Projected Winter WindExpected On-Peak Capacity

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

ERCOT FRCC MRO NPCC RFC SERC SPP WECC

MW

Existing Planned Proposed

Where is Wind Located?

Energy is located remote from demand centers

Unlocking this energy will change:

• Planning

• Operations Source: EPRI & NREL

IVGTF Preliminary Recommendations

R&D Recommendations: Flexibility

Forecasting

Transmission

What Must Change?

Planners: Consistent methods for energy & capacity

Add Probabilistic Expansion Analysis

Design Flexibility during Resource & Transmission Planning to manage variability and uncertainty

System Design must consider Distributed Variable Resources

Transmission, PHEVs, storage & demand response provide resource flexibility

Standard, generic power flow and stability models required

Reference Manual for Planners needed

What Must Change?

Enhanced Standards and Procedures for interconnection are required:

• Voltage & Frequency Ride-Through

• Reactive & Real Power Control

• Frequency & Inertial Response

Operators need to know how to manage added variability and uncertainty

Balancing Areas must have communications to monitor & provide dispatch signals to variable resources

Reference Manual for Operators needed

AESO Wind Power Forecasting Pilot Project

Forecasts delivered Midnight April 14 2008 for the Next 24 Hours

0

100

200

300

400

0:00 2:00 4:00 6:00 8:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 0:00

April 14, 2008 Hour of Day

MW

Actual Wind fcst 1 fcst 2 fcst 3

Operators: Forecasting should be incorporated into operations

Larger Balancing Areas impact on Reliability requires Study

Preliminary R&D Recommendations

R&D Recommendations: Flexibility

• Probabilistic System Planning

• Demand Response, Storage and other complementary technologies supporting wind integration

• Data requirements for Effective Load Carrying Capability calculations

• Balancing Area size & Ancillary Service Requirements

• Integrating large amounts of Distributed Generation

Variable Resource Forecasting

Transmission

• Interconnection Requirements

• Advanced transmission technologies (HVdc, FACTS, etc.)

Specific Activities Outlined

• Three year plan

• Suggested Assignments

Reports

Standards Review/Creation

Industry Coordination

Vital next step is the need for an Industry Reference Manual

Detailed Recommendations & Work Plan

Emerging Issues

Emerging Issues Risk Evolution:

Consequence

Lik

elih

oo

d

High

HighLow

Greenhouse Gas

Reductions

Fuel Storage &

Transportation

Rising Global Demand for

Energy & Equipment

Increased Demand-Side & Distributed

Generation Resources

Transmission of the 21st Century

Limited Water

Availability

Mercury Regulatio

n

1-5 Years6-10 Years

Thank you