Wind & Transmission:Wind & Transmission:The Clean Energy SuperhighwayThe Clean Energy Superhighway

Mark Lauby

Manager, Reliability Assessments, NERC

“The Clean Energy Superhighway”

Industry Focus

Keeping Reliability in the Balance

• Integrating Renewables

• Climate Change Legislation

Working Together

Challenges to Reliability

NERC’s 2007 forecast projects load will grow 20% over the next ten years

The grid is being operated closer to the edge than ever before

Rising dependence on natural gas for generation just as North American demand begins to exceed on-shore supply

New transmission needed to support wind and other renewable development

On the cusp of dramatic change as climate change and carbon legislation are considered

2008 Emerging Issues

Greenhouse gas reductions & carbon legislation

Fuel storage & transportation

Rising global demand for energy & equipment, increased off-shore manufacturing of raw & finished materials

Modeling increasing adoption of demand-side and distributed generation resources

Replacing and upgrading transmission infrastructure for the 21st century

Water usage

Mercury emissions

2009 Scenario Analysis

Accommodate a minimum of an additional 15% of total energy from new renewable sources by 2018

• No more than 5% made up from energy efficiency / demand response

“Stretch case”

Bulk power system reliability must be maintained, regardless of the generation mix

All generation must contribute to overall bulk power system reliability

Standards and criteria established must be fair, transparent and performance-based

Planners and operators must understand the challenges presented by large scale integration of variable generation

Wind and other variable generation must effectively integrate into planning and operations practices to ensure reliability

New Planning/operating tool requirements will be described in terms of bulk power system reliability performance

Keeping Reliability in the Balance

Integrating Renewables:Transmission as Ultimate Enabler

Moving power from the source to demand centers

• “Clean Energy Superhighway”

• We need just as much support for transmission development as we do for renewables

• States must work together to bring these clean resources from areas where renewable resources exist to areas where they don’t

Situation in Texas Today

Where We Want to Be Tomorrow

Integrating Renewables:Operational Tools

Operational models & wind forecasting tools

• Use geographic diversity & varying wind patterns

Strong transmission back bone

Demand-side management

Interconnection facilitators

• Low-voltage ride through

• Dispatchability

Integrating Renewables:Innovation

New technologies are needed to manage variable generation integration. For example:

• Storage

Compressed Air Energy

Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles

Flywheels & battery

• Smart Grid

Better visibility leads to higher productivity, efficiency, & flexibility

innovate

storage

smart grid

Climate Change Legislation:Results

Drives higher penetration of demand response and energy efficiency

Accelerated retirement of less efficient coal plants

• 59 planned coal plants cancelled or deferred in 2007

Environmental dispatching of existing generation to achieve emissions targets

Further expansion of natural gas

Climate Change Legislation:Analyzing Reliability Impacts

Need transmission

Power flow implications resulting from geographical disbursement of gas plants vs. coal plants

Possible strain on gas pipeline system

NERC to take active role in shaping legislation, making sure voice of reliability is heard

NERC-EPRI joint effort to define reliable integration and identify technology requirements

Industry Challenges are bigger than any one organization

Requires cooperative, industry-wide action

Accelerated investment is required

Moving Forward: Collaboration

“The Clean Energy Superhighway”

The time is now

We need renewables, & we need the transmission to move the power they generate

• Industry-wide collaboration required to support this effort

Operational issues exist, but emphasis must be on solving them

Questions & Answers

Thank you