Elara Securities - Strategy - India Economics

8/10/2019 Elara Securities - Strategy - India Economics

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Ashish Kumar • [email protected] • +91 22 3032 8536

G l o b a l M a r k e t s R e s e a r c h

Elara Securities (India) Private Limited

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Quick comment: Inflation falls on base; real recovery clouded

Sustainability of growth momentum post robust Q1FY15 GDP figureswas clouded in the first place and the current round of macro datadistinctly signals that. Waiting for the economy to self-correct couldtake longer-than- expected as India’s macro stability indicator scontinue to have traces of latent stagflation pressures.

We remain cautious of the short-term recovery prospects, and,accordingly, retain our FY15E for real GDP at 5.4%. A slow pickup inthe economy could lend a downward bias to our FY16E for real GDPat 6.7%.

Elevated levels of headline inflation in 2014 have induced a strong“base effect”. Coupled with easing vegetable prices and moderation in

crude, the headline CPI inflation at 6.5% in September 2014 suddenlylooks benign. Inflation readings for the next three months couldcontinue to look benign on these counts.

Along with a normalization of base in January 2014, the dynamics offood prices and bottomed core inflation are key risks for the inflationtrajectory in Q4FY15. On a YoY basis, the pace of resurrection ofheadline inflation in Q4FY15 could turn out to much sharper thananticipated.

Factory output Deseasonalized movement in overall factory output, as measured

by 3mma SAAR, has shown a sizeable loss in the sequentialmomentum – contraction of 9.2% – the largest since July 2013.

Most manufacturing momentum gains in Q1FY15 on account ofstrong exports demand seem to be over now. In themanufacturing sector, 11 out of 22 industry groups contractedduring August 2014. For detailed classification, see page 2.

Contraction in consumer goods production at 6.9% YoY and19.5% 3mma SAAR, centered on durables, indicates a long waitfor broad-based revival in the consumption cycle.

Retail inflation

CPI inflation has responded well to an across-the-board high base,supported by almost zero sequential momentum growth on a MoMbasis. For a detailed CPI inflation breakdown, please refer to page 3.

Monetary policy preview

We remain bearish on the structural supply-sidebottlenecks that continue to pose upside risks to inflation targets setby the Central Bank (CB). In the last monetary policy statement, the CBunderlined it will “look through the base effect” of the inflationtrajectory.

Of the key assumptions in our base case outlook on inflation, namely1) disappointment in the spatial distribution of the Monsoon, affecting

farm productivity and distorting retail price regimes, and 2) a growthrevival without supply-side response stoking pricing power, constitutesa major risk to the 200bp disinflation target set by the CB during 2015.

And, that leaves real chances of further rate hikes by the CB.

Broad collapse in factory output

(4)

(2)

0

2

4

6

8

A u

g - 1

3

S e p - 1

3

O c t - 1 3

N o v - 1

3

D e c - 1 3

J a n - 1

4

F e b - 1

4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1

4

J u n - 1

4

J u l - 1 4

A u

g - 1

4 1 2 m o n t h c h a n g e ( % )

IP Ex-capital goods

Source: CSO, MOSPI and Elara Securities Research

Trends in YoY growth of IPY-o-Y ( ) Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14

General 3.7 5.6 3.9 0.4 0.4Mining 1.7 2.5 4.5 1.2 2.6

Manufacturing 3.0 5.9 2.5 (1.0) (1.4)Electricity 11.9 6.7 15.7 11.7 12.9Basic goods 8.6 7.5 10.0 7.4 9.6Capital goods 13.4 4.2 23.3 (3.9) (11.3)Intermediate goods 3.0 3.5 2.4 3.0 0.3Consumer goods (4.8) 4.6 (9.7) (7.7) (6.9)

Durables (7.7) 3.6 (23.4) (20.9) (15.0)Non-durables (2.7) 5.2 0.6 2.4 (0.9)


Trends in sequential growth of IP3mma saar( ) Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14General 5.5 13.7 3.9 (6.3) (9.2) Mining (8.1) (3.0) 4.5 0.6 9.5Manufacturing 5.4 17.5 0.9 (8.8) (15.2) Electricity 22.6 26.7 34.6 6.3 12.3Basic goods 16.3 10.0 14.3 1.7 12.1Capital goods 38.1 35.9 86.5 5.6 4.2Intermediate goods (4.6) 3.1 3.4 4.0 (2.8) Consumer goods (16.7) 6.5 (14.3) (18.0) (19.5)


Revision patterns in IP for July 2014RE QE

Mining 1.2 2.1Manufacturing (1.0) (1.0)Electricity 11.7 11.7Basic goods 7.4 7.6Capital goods (3.9) (3.8)Intermediate goods 3.0 2.6

Consumer goods (7.7) (7.4)General 0.4 0.5


Trends in India CPI inflation (%)

Weights Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14Headline 100.0 7.5 8.0 7.7 6.5

Rural 43.0 7.9 8.4 8.3 6.7Urban 57.0 6.8 7.9 8.5 9.4

Food, beverages &tobacco 49.7 8.0 9.1 9.1 7.6

Rural 37.2 8.6 9.6 9.5 8.0Urban 59.3 6.6 8.3 8.3 7.6

Fuel and light 9.5 4.7 4.5 4.2 3.5Housing 9.8 9.1 8.9 8.5 8.1Clothing, bedding &footwear 4.7 8.6 8.7 8.4 7.6

Miscellaneous 26.3 6.5 6.6 5.9 4.7Ex food 50.3 6.9 6.7 6.2 5.2Core (ex-food ex-fuel) 40.8 7.4 7.4 6.8 5.9


India | Strategy 13 October 2014

India Economics



India Macroclime

2 Elara Securities (India) Private Limited

Exhibit 1: Consolidated industrial breakdown (% YoY)

Description Weight FY13 FY14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14

General 100.0 1.1 (0.1) 3.7 5.6 3.9 0.4 0.4

Use based classification

Basic goods 45.7 2.5 2.0 8.6 7.5 10.0 7.4 9.6

Capital goods 8.8 (6.0) (3.7) 13.4 4.2 23.3 (3.9) (11.3)

Intermediate goods 15.7 1.6 3.0 3.0 3.5 2.4 3.0 0.3

Consumer goods 29.8 2.4 (2.6) (4.8) 4.6 (9.7) (7.7) (6.9)

Durables 8.5 2.0 (12.2) (7.7) 3.6 (23.4) (20.9) (15.0)

Non-durables 21.3 2.8 5.2 (2.7) 5.2 0.6 2.4 (0.9)

Sectoral classification

Mining 14.2 (2.3) (0.8) 1.7 2.5 4.5 1.2 2.6

Electricity 10.3 4.0 6.1 11.9 6.7 15.7 11.7 12.9

Manufacturing 75.5 1.3 (0.8) 3.0 5.9 2.5 (1.0) (1.4)

Food products and beverages 7.3 2.9 (1.4) 10.2 9.2 1.8 4.1 8.5Tobacco products 1.6 (0.4) 1.6 7.9 35.3 (0.9) (11.9) 5.6

Textiles 6.2 5.9 4.1 6.0 7.2 1.5 2.1 (1.7)

Wearing apparel etc. 2.8 10.4 22.6 (22.4) 9.9 (5.8) (7.4) (10.1)

Leather and leather products 0.6 7.3 5.0 5.0 11.3 10.6 4.8 10.9

Wood and products of wood 1.1 (7.1) (2.1) (1.8) 1.6 (6.1) 5.9 4.2

Paper and paper products 1.0 0.5 0.0 1.9 1.3 3.2 (2.1) 4.4

Publishing, printing etc. 1.1 (5.1) 0.3 (5.3) (5.9) (4.9) (6.9) (6.1)

Coke, refined petroleum products & nuclear fuel 6.7 8.5 5.2 1.4 (3.3) 1.3 (5.0) (4.6)

Chemicals and chemical products 10.1 3.8 8.9 (4.6) 3.9 2.2 6.1 (5.3)

Rubber and plastics products 2.0 0.2 (2.3) (0.8) 1.8 3.6 7.5 5.3

Other non-metallic mineral products 4.3 1.9 1.0 6.3 7.2 9.5 12.0 4.6

Basic metals 11.3 1.9 0.3 14.2 11.8 11.7 12.5 19.1

Fabricated metal products 3.1 (4.7) (7.2) 5.8 4.0 (0.5) (2.2) (9.7)

Machinery and equipment n.e.c. 3.8 (4.7) (4.8) 4.7 8.7 4.7 4.8 5.1

Office, accounting and computing machinery 0.3 (13.9) (15.8) (21.1) (31.5) (60.5) (31.1) (43.9)

Electrical machinery and apparatus n.e.c. 2.0 0.6 14.3 65.5 35.0 69.1 (6.2) (17.8)

Radio, TV and communication equipment 1.0 5.6 (27.3) (31.8) (40.3) (62.9) (58.3) (48.8)

Medical, precision and optical instruments 0.6 (2.0) (5.0) (5.5) (0.4) 3.5 (0.8) 1.8

Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers 4.1 (5.3) (9.6) (14.6) (7.3) 7.3 0.4 (2.1)

Other transport equipment 1.8 (0.1) 5.6 6.6 13.9 7.7 17.1 14.3

Furniture; manufacturing n.e.c. 3.0 (5.1) (13.8) (7.6) 61.5 (13.4) (17.3) (0.5)




India Macroclime

E c o n o m i c s

33Elara Securities (India) Private Limited

Exhibit 2: Detailed breakdown in CPI inflation (All India, unless specified)

Weights FY13 FY14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14

Headline 100 10.2 9.5 7.5 8.0 7.7 6.5

Rural 57.0 10.1 9.6 7.9 8.4 8.3 6.7

Urban 43.0 10.4 9.4 6.8 7.9 8.5 9.4

Food, beverages and tobacco 49.7 11.8 11.1 8.0 9.1 9.1 7.6

Rural 59.3 11.7 11.1 8.6 9.6 9.5 8.0

Urban 37.2 12.1 11.0 6.6 8.3 8.3 7.6

Cereals and products 14.6 10.5 13.2 7.6 7.5 7.3 6.4

Pulses and products 2.7 12.3 4.2 5.2 5.8 6.8 7.2

Oils and fats 3.9 16.6 1.8 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.0

Egg, fish and meat 2.9 12.2 12.1 8.3 7.7 7.7 6.4

Milk and products 7.7 10.5 8.7 11.1 11.3 11.7 11.1

Condiments and spices 1.7 3.1 7.2 8.2 8.7 9.3 8.6

Vegetables 5.4 20.6 26.0 9.1 16.8 15.0 8.6

Fruits 1.9 7.4 11.2 20.6 22.3 24.0 22.4

Sugar etc 1.9 12.4 (0.7) (0.3) 0.8 1.2 0.6

Non-alcoholic beverages 2.0 9.8 9.2 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.0

Prepared meals etc 2.8 9.4 9.5 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.3

Pan, tobacco and intoxicants 2.1 10.8 9.2 7.7 8.7 8.8 8.4

Fuel and light 9.5 8.5 7.4 4.7 4.5 4.2 3.5

Rural 10.4 7.9 7.4 5.4 5.2 5.0 4.0

Urban 8.4 9.7 7.3 3.4 3.2 2.7 2.5

Housing 9.8 11.3 10.4 9.1 8.9 8.5 8.1

Urban 22.5 11.3 10.4 9.1 8.9 8.5 8.1

Clothing, bedding and footwear 4.7 10.9 9.3 8.6 8.7 8.4 7.6

Rural 5.4 10.9 9.5 9.4 9.5 9.0 8.1

Urban 3.9 10.9 8.9 7.3 7.2 7.2 6.8

Miscellaneous 26.3 7.3 6.9 6.5 6.6 5.9 4.7

Rural 24.9 7.2 6.7 6.8 6.8 6.2 5.0

Urban 28.0 7.4 7.0 6.2 6.2 5.5 4.2

Medical care 5.7 6.4 6.4 6.0 5.8 6.0 5.4

Education, stationery etc 3.4 7.1 8.2 7.6 7.8 7.6 7.2

Recreation and amusement 1.4 4.2 6.1 5.3 5.0 4.8 4.5Transport and communication 7.6 6.9 7.0 6.3 5.9 4.7 2.5

Personal care and effects 2.9 7.4 6.5 6.2 6.7 6.8 6.4

Household requisites 4.3 9.0 5.4 6.0 6.5 4.9 3.4

Others 1.1 11.5 11.3 9.8 10.0 9.9 8.9

Ex food 50.3 8.5 7.9 6.9 6.7 6.2 5.2

Core (ex-food ex-fuel) 40.8 8.7 8.0 7.4 7.4 6.8 5.9

Source: CSO, Elara Securities Research



India Macroclime

4 Elara Securities (India) Private Limited

Industrial Production Chart Book

Exhibit 3: Trends in General IP

(25)(20)(15)(10)(5)0510152025

(10)

(5)

0

5

10

15

20

D e c - 0 8

F e b - 0

9

A p r - 0 9

J u n - 0

9

A u

g - 0

9

O c t - 0 9

D e c - 0 9

F e b - 1

0

A p r - 1 0

J u n - 1

0

A u

g - 1

0

O c t - 1 0

D e c - 1 0

F e b - 1

1

A p r - 1 1

J u n - 1

1

A u

g - 1

1

O c t - 1 1

D e c - 1 1

F e b - 1

2

A p r - 1 2

J u n - 1

2

A u

g - 1

2

O c t - 1 2

D e c - 1 2

F e b - 1

3

A p r - 1 3

J u n - 1

3

A u

g - 1

3

O c t - 1 3

D e c - 1 3

F e b - 1

4

A

r - 1 4

J u n - 1

4

A u - 1

4

( % )

( % )

12 mo nt h change (LHS) 3mma saar (RHS)

Exhibit 4: Trends in Mining (%) Exhibit 5: Trends in Electricity Production (%)

(20)(15)(10)(5)051015

(10)

(5)

0

5

10

15

D e c - 0 9

A

r - 1 0

A u g - 1

0

D e c - 1 0

A

r - 1 1

A u g - 1

1

D e c - 1 1

A p r - 1 2

A u

- 1 2

D e c - 1 2

A

r - 1 3

A u

- 1 3

D e c - 1 3

A

r - 1 4

A u

- 1 4


(20)

(10)

0

10

20

3040

(10)

(5)

0

5

10

1520

D e c - 0 9

A p r - 1 0

A u

- 1 0

D e c - 1 0

A p r - 1 1

A u

- 1 1

D e c - 1 1

A

r - 1 2

A u

- 1 2

D e c - 1 2

A

r - 1 3

A u

- 1 3

D e c - 1 3

A

r - 1 4

A u

- 1 4


Exhibit 6: Trends in Basic Goods (%) Exhibit 7: Trends in Capital Goods (%)

(10)

(5)

0

5

10

15

20

(4)(2)

02468

1012

D e c - 0 9

A

r - 1 0

A u

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0

D e c - 1 0

A

r - 1 1

A u

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1

D e c - 1 1

A p r - 1 2

A u - 1

2

D e c - 1 2

A

r - 1 3

A u - 1

3

D e c - 1 3

A

r - 1 4

A u - 1

4

12 mo nt h change (LHS) 3mma saar ( RHS)

(60)(40)(20)020406080100

(40)(30)(20)(10)

0102030405060

D e c - 0 9

A p r - 1 0

A u

g - 1

0

D e c - 1 0

A p r - 1 1

A u

g - 1

1

D e c - 1 1

A p r - 1 2

A u - 1

2

D e c - 1 2

A

r - 1 3

A u - 1

3

D e c - 1 3

A

r - 1 4

A u - 1

4


Exhibit 8: Trends in Intermediate Goods (%) Exhibit 9: Trends in Consumer Goods (%)

(15)(10)(5)05

10

15

20

(10)

(5)

0

5

10

15

20

D e c - 0 9

A

r - 1 0

A u

g - 1

0

D e c - 1 0

A

r - 1 1

A u

g - 1

1

D e c - 1 1

A p r - 1 2

A u - 1

2

D e c - 1 2

A

r - 1 3

A u - 1

3

D e c - 1 3

A

r - 1 4

A u - 1

4


(30)(20)(10)01020304050

(15)(10)

(5)05

10152025

D e c - 0 9

A p r - 1 0

A u - 1

0

D e c - 1 0

A p r - 1 1

A u - 1

1

D e c - 1 1

A

r - 1 2

A u - 1

2

D e c - 1 2

A

r - 1 3

A u - 1

3

D e c - 1 3

A

r - 1 4

A u - 1

4

12 mo nt h change (LHS) 3mma saar ( RHS) Source of all charts: CSO, MOSPI and Elara Securities Research




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