El futurode la eólicamarina flotanteenEspaña The Iberian ......The Iberian region as a hub for...

The Iberian region as a hub for technology development and industrial leadership in the field of floating offshore wind

Javier Sanz. December 22nd, 2020. AEE Webinar

El futuro de la eólica marina flotante en España

2The next big market for the wind energy sector…

Capacity factor IEC Class I map obtained from the “Global Wind Atlas 3.0, a free, web-based application developed, owned and operated by the Technical University of Denmark (DTU). The Global Wind Atlas 3.0 is released in partnership with the World Bank Group, utilizing data provided by Vortex, using funding provided by the EnergySector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP). For additional information: https://globalwindatlas.info”

https://globalwindatlas.info/

3…facing new challenges.

4Market segmentation as per today envisaged technologies

Global offshore wind technical potential map (max. distance from shore of 300 km)

Shallow Waters - BFOW (10 - 60 m)

• Near Shore (< 60 km)• Far from shore (60 – 300 km)

Deep Waters - FOW (> 60 m)

• Near Shore (< 60 km)• Far from shore (60 – 300 km)

Global offshore wind gross potential is about 120,000 GW leading to 420,000 TWh

• Equivalent to 11 times the global demand in 2014

Near 78% of this available resource is located in deep waters (>60), where FOW is required and competitive

Floating offshore wind potential is estimated in 333,000 TWh (95,000 GW)

• The major resource is far form shore (77%) while (23%) is located near to the shore

Source: IEA Offshore Wind Outlook 2019; Seaplace; Enzen analysis

5A deep view on FOW market potential

Note: (1) Near shore is considered less than 60 km from shoreSource: IEA Offshore Wind Outlook 2019; Seaplace; Enzen research

North AmericaShallow WatersNear shore: 9,907 TWh/yrFar from shore: 13,238 TWh/yr

Deep WatersNear shore: 22,819 TWh/yrFar from shore: 58,937 TWh/yr

Central & South AmericaShallow WatersNear shore: 3,847 TWh/yrFar from shore: 4,438 TWh/yr


Near shore: 14,817 TWh/yrFar from shore: 52,009 TWh/yr

Deep Waters

EuropeShallow WatersNear shore: 2.629 TWh/yrFar from shore: 2,390 TWh/yr

EurasiaShallow WatersNear shore: 9,382 TWh/yrFar from shore: 17,409 TWh/yr


AfricaShallow WatersNear shore: 1,123 TWh/yrFar from shore: 572 TWh/yr


Shallow Waters

Deep Waters

Middle East

Near shore: 478 TWh/yrFar from shore: 673 TWh/yr

Near shore: 600 TWh/yrFar from shore: 1,791 TWh/yr

Asia PacificShallow WatersNear shore: 8,508 TWh/yrFar from shore: 12,451 TWh/yr


6Market as per today: From what has already been deployed…

Source: Seaplace; Enzen analysis

Geographical distribution of projects full-scale demonstrators and pre-commercial stage projects

Windfloat Atlantic, 25 MW (2020)Tech.: Windfloat

Hywind Scotland, 30 MW (2017)Tech.: Hywind

Floatgen, 2 MW (2018)Tech.: Damping pool

Kincardine, 50 MW (2020)Tech.: Windfloat Stiesdal, 3.6 MW (2020)Tech.: Tetraspar

GICON Demo, 2.3 MW (2017)Tech.: GICON-SOF

Hibiki, 3 MW (2019)Tech.: Damping Pool

Goto Sakiyama, 2 MW (2016)Tech.: TODA Spar

Fukushima FORWARD II, 12 MW (2015)Tech.: Advanced Spar (5 MW)

Tech.: V-shape semi-sub (7 MW)

Fukushima FORWARD I, 2 MW (2013)Tech.: Compact semi-sub

Already commissioned projects

Projects to be commissioned in the near future (2020)

Nezzy, 6 MW (2020)Tech.: SCDnezzy2

7Market as per today: … towards an aggressive ramp-up

Source: Enzen research

TOTAL = 25 MW• Windfloat Atlantic, 25 MW (2020)• Windfloat Atlantic, 125 MW (TBD)

Geographical distribution of current project pipeline (work in progress)

TOTAL = +3,400 MW• Castle Wind/Morro Bay, 1000 MW (2027)• Redwood Cost Energy, 150 MW (2025)• Aqua Ventus I, 12 MW (2022)• Aqua Ventus II, 450 MW (2025)• Aqua Ventus III, 450 MW (2029)• Oahu North, 400 MW (2027)• Oahun South, 400 MW (2027)• Progression Wind, 400 MW (2027)• Humbolt, 100-150 MW (2024)

TOTAL = 3,300 MW• Donghae TwinWind, 200 MW (2024)• Donghae KNOC, 200 MW (2024)• White Heron, 200 MW (2027)• Donghae Gray Whale, 200 MW (2025)• Ulsan KFW Wind, 500 MW (2025)• Buscan Techno Park, 2000 MW (TBD)

TOTAL = + 1,000 MW• Fukushima FORWARD I, 2 MW (2013)• Fukushima FORWARD II, 12 MW (2015)• Kitakyushu/Hibiki, 3 MW (2019)• Goto Sakiyama, 2 MW (2016)• Nezzy, 6 MW (2020)• Goto Sakiyama, 22 MW (2021)• Hitachi Zosen, 400 MW (2024)• Acacia, TBD (TBD)

List of active countries according to current project pipeline:• France• Germany• Japan• Norway• Portugal• South Korea• Spain• UK• USA

TOTAL = +1700 MW• Hywind Scotland, 30 MW (2017)• Kincardine, 50 MW (2020)• Dounreay Tri, 10 MW (2021)• Atlantis Energy pre-commercial, 100 MW (2021)• Atlantis Energy, 1500 MW (TBD)

Already commissioned projects

Active countries with project pipelineProjects to be commissioned in the near future (2020)

TOTAL = +600 MW• Floatgen, 2MW (2018)• EFGL, 25 MW (2021)• Groix-Belle-Ile, 24 MW (2021)• PGL Wind Farm, 25 MW (2021)• EolMed (Gruissan), 24.8 MW (2021)• Bretagne Sud, 240 MW (2050)• EolMed Commercial, 500 MW (2028)

TOTAL = +220 MW• Canary Islands Equinor, 200 MW (2024)• Saitec, 2 MW (2021)• Saitec, Demo 1:6 (2020)• X1 Wind, Demo 1:3 (2020)• W2Power, Demo 1:6 (2020)• Multiplat2, 10 MW (TBD)• Nautilus/Balea, 8MW (2021)

TOTAL = 6-8 MW• GICON, 6-8 MW (2022)

TOTAL = 180 MW• Stiesdal Demo, 3.6 MW (2020)• Hywind Tampen, 88 MW (2022)• NOAKA, 88 MW (2023)

TOTALs• Projects: 52• Capacity: + 11 GW

TOTAL = 6 MW• AFLOWT, 6 MW (2022)

TOTAL = 500 MW• W2 S/N, 500 MW (2030)• 500 MW (2030)

8Potential market in the Iberian region

Source: WindEurope; Enzen analysis

0

5

10

15

20

25

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

GW

CAGR2020-2030

CAGR2030-2050

High scenario

61.4% 10.5%

Low scenario

44.6% 12.7%

WindEurope estimates that the Iberian region could install up to 22 GW of FOW by 2050, 13 GW in Spain and 9 GW in Portugal; accounting for 10% of the expected global market

9Broad technology classification

Note: TLP stands for tension leg platformSource: WindEurope; Seaplace; Enzen research

Spar buoy Semisubmersible TLP1

Barges Hybrids Game changers

Dev

elop

ed c

once

pts

(inhe

rited

fr

om o

il an

d ga

s in

dust

ry)

Classification of main FOW technologies

Nov

el c

once

pts

TRL and MRL levels for FOW technologies

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

SemiSpar

Barge

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

Commercial wind farm (> 200 MW farm)

Commercial wind farm(< 200 MW farm)

Pre-commercial array(several turbines; < 50 MW array)

Full-scale demonstrator(in operational environment)

Big-scale demonstrator(in relevant environment)

Small-scale demonstrator(in relevant environment)

Laboratory and tank testing

Technology readiness level (TRL) – European Commission

Mar

ket r

eadi

ness

leve

l (M

RL) –

Win

dEur

ope

Technology research, design and development to prove

feasibility

Pre-

com

mer

cial

syst

em

Full-

scal

e de

mon

stra

tor

(in o

pera

tiona

l env

ironm

ent)

Smal

l-sca

le d

emon

stra

tor

(in re

leva

nt e

nviro

nmen

t)

Smal

l-sca

le p

roto

type

(tan

k te

stin

g)

Com

mer

cial

sys

tem

Labo

rato

ry te

stin

g

TLPHybrid

Game c.

10Technology development landscape

Geographical distribution of prototypes1 (TOTAL = 34)

• UPC (WindCrete)• Nautilus Floating Solutions (Nautilus)• Cobra ACS (FLOCAN)

• Iberdrola (TLPWind)• Esteyco (TELWIND)

• X1 Wind (X1 Wind)• Saitec Offshore Technologies (SATH)• EnerOcean S.L (W2POWER)

• Equinor (Hywind)• Dr. Techn. Olav Olsen AS (OO-STAR)• SWAY A/S (SWAY)

• TODA Corporation (Toda Spar)• Marubeni (compact semi-sub)• Marubeni (V-shape semi-sub)

• Marubeni (Advance Spar)

• Principle Power (Windfloat)• Aquaventus (Volturn US)• Glosten (PelaStar)

• DBD Systems LLC (Eco TLP)

• GustoMSC (TriFloater)• Blue H Engineering (Blue H) • SBM Offshore (SBM Windfloater)

• Stiesdal Offshore Techs. (Tetraspar)

• Naval Energies (Sea Reed)• CETEAL (XCF)• Ideol (Damping Pool)

• Aerodyn Engineering (SCDnezzy2)• Gicon (GICON-SOF)

• Saipem (Hexafloat)

• TetraFloat Ltd (TetraFloat)

• Hexicon (HEXICON G2)

Note: (1) Low TRL (3 or lower) and vertical axis concepts have not been identifiedSource: Seaplace; Enzen research

11Technology development landscape

Note: (1) Low TRL (3 or lower) and vertical axis concepts have not been identified; (2) Underlined concepts indicate those at full-scale demonstration or pre-commercial array stagesSource: Seaplace; Enzen research

Spar buoy (SP) Semi-submers. TLP Novel conceptsDeveloped concepts

• Hywind

• Advanced Spar

• SWAY

• Windfloat

• Nautilus

• Fuk. Mirai

• Fuk. Shimpuu

• Sea Reed

• Tri-Floater

• TLPWind

• PelaStar

• Blue H

• GICON-SOF

• SBM windfloater

• Damping Pool

• Tetraspar

• X1Wind

• TetraFloat

• W2Power

• Hexicon G2

• Hexafloat

• Hywind Tampen

• Toda Spar

• Windcrete

• FLOCAN

• OO-STAR

• Sea Reed

• VolturnUS

• XCF

• ECO TLP

• Damping Pool

• TelWind

• SATH

• SCDnezzy2

Classification of FOW concepts1 according to the construction material (TOTAL = 34)

Advantages Disadvantages

Conc

rete

• Higher local content• Lower cost of raw

material per tonne

• Longer service life

• Increases mass and size of substructure

• Requires larger investment in quayside facilities for manufacturing

• Subject to environmental sensitives during manufacturing (e.g., frost, heavy rain)

• Curing time requirements

Stee

l

• Proven technology (longer history of being used offshore in BFOW and oil and gas industry)

• Easier to recycle

• Subject to corrosion• Higher cost of raw material per

tonne

• Subject to price volatility

Ʃ = 6

Ʃ = 11

Ʃ = 6

Ʃ = 11

Ʃ =

13Ʃ

= 21

Main advantages and disadvantages of construction materials for floating structures

12A first approach to LCoE competitiveness: CAPEX

CAPEX* breakdown for key elements of main FOW technologies (steel structure)

Note: (*) Based on current prices; Decommissioning costs has not been considered as it is estimated as the 65% of the marine operations cost for all technologies

Source: Seaplace analysis; Enzen analysis

32% 51% 31%50%

28% 27%36%

34%39%

23%

33% 16%

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

Spar SEMI TLP Barge

Mill

ion

EUR

/ M

W

16% 26% 17% 22%

35% 42%

44% 55%

49%32%

40%23%

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

Spar SEMI TLP Barge

Mill

ion

EUR

/ M

W

CAPEX* breakdown for key elements of main FOW technologies (concrete structure)

Moorings and anchors

Floating structure

Marine ops.(T&I, pre-lay)

+/- 1.03 MEUR / MW

+/- 1.18 MEUR / MW

13A first approach to LCoE competitiveness: Where we stand

Note: (1) Based on current prices; (2) Expected target strike prices for a 250 MW project in Brittany (120 EUR/MWh) and a 250 MW project in the Mediterranean (110 EUR/MWh); LCOE values do not take into account development costs, therefore they are comparable to the LCOE figures from public tenders in France

Source: Beiter, P., Musial, W., et al. (2016), A Spatial-Economic Cost-Reduction Pathway Analysis for US Offshore Wind Energy Development from 2015–2030; Myhr A., Bjerkseter C., Ågotnes A. and Nygaard T. (2014), Levelised cost of energy for offshore floating wind turbines in a life cycle perspective; Seaplace analysis; Enzen analysis

LCOE comparison for FOW technologies1

142 135

193177

120 115

171147

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Spar SEMI TLP BargeEU

R /

MW

h

Max.276

Min.86

Additional assumptions for LCOE calc.:

WACC: 4.0% (real; after-tax)

Capital recovery factor (CRF): 7.4%

Fixed charge rate (FCR): 8.2%

Net average annual energy production (AEPnet)

• Depends on the capacity factor for each technology

Range calculation

• Upper case: + 43% from base case

• Lower case: - 25% from base case

Conc

rete

Stee

l

Expected tenders in France (2021-2022)2

Conc

rete

Conc

rete

Conc

rete

Stee

l

Stee

l

Stee

l

14A first approach to LCoE competitiveness: Today’s comparisons

Note: (1) Average; (2) Cost of electricity generation based on diesel in Canary IslandsSource: REN21; European Commission; CREARA Research; Seaplace; Enzen analysis

0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

Biop

ower

Geo

ther

mal

Hyd

ro p

ower

Sola

r PV

Sola

r CSP

Ons

hore

win

d

Off

shor

e w

ind

(BFO

W)

LCO

E [E

UR/

kW

h]

Africa Asia Central AmericaEurasia Europe Middle EastNorth America Oceania South America

Tidal1

Wave1

Diesel2FOW: based on our estimate for a 500 MW farm

• As there are no commercial projects in operations, current LCOE for FOW is still under a great interval of uncertainty

• Based on our analysis for a commercial 500 MW farm, FOW could be close to compete with other RES such as BFOW or solar PV

• FOW could be already competitive against diesel in certain isolated regions which are heavily dependent on fuel imports

15A first approach to LCoE competitiveness: Levers to improve

Spar Semi TLP Barge Hybrid Game ch.

CAPE

X re

duct

ion

Floating structure

• Reduction of fabrication costs due to standardization and mass production1

PP P P P PPP PPP

PP P P PP PP PP

Mooring and anchors

• Reduction of fabrication costs due to standardization and mass production P P P P P P

• Cost reduction due to new materials (e.g., composites) PP PP PPP PP PP PP

Marine operations

• Avoiding WT offshore assembly (mating) P P P PDepends on

designDepends on

design

• Dependency of costly heavy-lifting units P P P PDepends on

designDepends on

design

• Optimizing Mooring pre-lay P P PP PDepends on

designDepends on

design

OPEX reduction

• Reduction of WT components fatigue by improving life cycle performance (motions, controller, etc.) P PP PP PP

Depends on design

Depends on design

• Reduction of Maintenance Cost due to new materials (concrete, mooring, corrosion protection) PP PP PP PP PP PP

• Reduction of O&M fleet cost by optimizing logistics PP P PP PDepends on

designDepends on

design

Increased unit power generation

• Scalability of the system to integrate larger wind turbines, reducing costs per MW PPP PP PP P

Depends on design

Depends on design

Key: PPP – High; PP – Medium; P – LowSource: Seaplace; Enzen analysis

Steel

Concrete

16A first approach to LCoE competitiveness: Expected evolution…

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032

LCO

E (E

UR 2

018

/ MW

h)

Source: Offshore Wind Technologies Market Report, United States Department of Energy (2018); WindEurope; Enzen analysis

WindEurope (2018)ORE Catapult (2018)

CAGR2017-2032

Max. - 10.1%

Min. - 6.6%

Costs are expected to decrease even faster at “mature” commercial-scale, reaching EUR 40 to 60 per MWh by 2030 given the right visibility in terms of volumes and industrialisation (WindEurope)

Industry expects the costs to reach EUR 100 to 80 per MWh for the first commercial scale projects using existing proven technologies and reaching final investment decision between 2023 and 2025 (WindEurope)

The cost of FOW in Europe based on current operational projects today is in the order of EUR 180 to 200 per MWh for pre-commercial projects (WindEurope)

Expected tenders in France (2021-2022)BVG – Spar buoy (2017)

BVG – Semisubmersible (2017) NREL - Semisubmersible (2017)NREL – Spar buoy (2017)

17A first approach to LCoE competitiveness: … and how will compete

Source: Enzen research; Enzen analysis

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Solar PV BFOW Onshore wind Floating wind(avg.)

Bioenergy Tidal Wave Diesel generators

2020 2025 2030

LCO

E (E

UR/

MW

h)

-7.8%-1.9%

-9.8%

-0.7%

8.6%1

-9.8%

-11.0%FOW 2020

FOW 2025

FOW 2030

18Value chain analysis: Floating structures


Shipyard steel manufacturing processes

Replicability

Geo

grap

hica

l sco

pe

Global

HighLow

Tank-testing

Engineering

Primary material (steel)

High-tech IT

Shipyard

Replicability

Geo

grap

hica

l sco

pe

Global

HighLow

Tank-testing

Engineering

Secondary material (steel)

High-tech IT

Quayside yard / Port

Yard concrete manufacturing

processes

Primary material

(concrete)

Concrete Structures Steel Structures

19Value chain analysis: WTG, Mooring Lines and Anchors


Replicability

Geo

grap

hica

l sco

pe

Global

HighLow

Tank-testing

Engineering

Primary material (synthetic fibres)

High-tech IT

Anchor manufacturing

facilities

Primary material (steel)

Shipyard storage facilities

Synthetic ropes manufacturing

facilities

Steel chain manufacturing

facilities

Replicability

Geo

grap

hica

l sco

pe

Global

HighLow

Offshore WT

Research centres

TowerMechanical

parts

Blades

Power generator

Nacelleassembly

Direct-drive generator1

Gearbox

Power electronics

Mooring Lines & Anchors

20Value chain analysis: WTG – Towards a virtuous cycle

Source: Enzen analysis

> Installed MWs

> Stronger relationships

> Economies of scope

> Economies of scale> Working hours

> Industrialization > Synergies

> Bankability < LCOE

Engineering & high-tech ITHigh replicability means intense competition at the global level, demanding constant improvement and aggressive commercial practices to stay ahead

• E.g. Spanish RES developers

• Mid to low replicability requires sustainable growth and maintaining required industrial and infrastructure capabilities for local and continental domination

‒ E.g. Spanish BFOW jacket manufacturers

• This virtuous cycle requires: ‒ Necessary value chain

capabilities ‒ Addressable market in the region

• “Pull effect”‒ Once established, Iberian

manufacturers may export capabilities as partner developers, WTG manufacturers, ITC providers, etc., move to new markets and require support from trusted suppliers

Indu

stria

l & in

fras

truc

ture

capa

bilit

ies

Inte

llect

ual

capa

bilit

ies

> Installed MWs

21Value chain analysis: Iberian region – RTO active players

Source: AEE, Seaplace, Enzen research

WTG designand testing

Software / IT / Big Data

Control systemsand operation

New materials for wind power

Mechanical components and other structural elements

Offshore wind

AICIA X X

AIMEN X X

AIMPLAS X

CARTIF X

CENER X X X

CIEMAT X X

CIRCE X

CTC X X X

CTME X

EURECAT X X

IK4-Research Alliance X X X X

ITC X X X

ITE X

ITER X

TECNALIA X X X X X

WAVEC X X X

There are other centres with activities connected to wind as well as private companies with R&D centres such as Vestas (Portugal), Gamesa (Spain), or Arteche (Spain).

22Value chain analysis: Iberian region – Universities with active research groups


Universidad de Sevilla

• WTG control

Universidad de Zaragoza

• Quality of energy• Urban wind

Universidad de las Palmas

• Hybrid systems• Water pumping and seawater

desalination powered by wind systems

• Mini-wind systems

Universidad de Valladolid

• PMG generators

Universidad de Castilla la Mancha

• Electric modelling of WTG

Universidad Carlos III

• Variable speed electrical systems• Network integration

Universidad Politecnica de Madrid

• Wind resource assessment• Modelling and turbulence

analysis • Variable speed systems• Composite materials for blades• FOW involved R&D

Universidad Politecnica de Cataluña

• FOW involved R&D

Universidad de Vigo

• Variable speed electrical systems• Network integration

Universidad de Navarra

• Research on the impact of rays on wind turbines

Universidad de Mondragon

• WTG control systems

Tecnico de Lisboa

• Research on marine structures

23Value chain analysis: Iberian region – Industrial entities


115

35

19 1610 7 7 6 3

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

O&M

Mech

anica

l com

pone

nts a

nd o

ther

s

Elec

tric m

achi

nery

Towe

rs

Blad

es

Subs

truct

ures

for o

ffsho

re w

ind

Win

d tu

rbin

e ass

embl

y

Inst

allat

ion

and

logi

stics

Cont

rol s

yste

ms a

nd a

ctua

tors

Geographical distribution of wind power industrial players (TOTAL=216)

Number of players by industrial activity across the wind power value chain (TOTAL=216)

The Iberian region also has numerous project developers with a global presence such as

Iberdrola, EDPR, Enel green power or Acciona

1

1

1

13

7

20

17

11

12

1

1

1

1

2

3 2

5

2

5

3

1

5

6

4

10

8

9

3

20 5

8

21

21

10

24Value chain analysis: Iberian region vs other EU regions

Source: Seaplace, Enzen analysis

Iberia France Denmark Norway Germany

Offshore wind turbines

Nacelle Back of the race Leading pack Leader Back of the race Leading pack

Blades Leading pack Chaser Leader Back of the race Leading pack

Tower Leading pack Chaser Leader Back of the race Leading pack

Floating structures

Steel Leader Leading pack Chaser Leading pack Chaser

Concrete Leading pack Leading pack Chaser Leader Back of the race

Mooring systems

Steel chains Leader Chaser Chaser Leading pack Leading pack

Synthetic ropes Leading pack Leading pack Chaser Chaser Chaser

Marine electrical field

Offshore cables Back of the race Leading pack Leading pack Chaser Leading pack

Substations Leading pack Leader Chaser Chaser Leading pack

Clear leaders in offshore nacelles will make it very difficult for the Iberian region to position as leader

Even though Iberia is not a leader, it has full capabilities for both elements and it is a relevant manufacturer; therefore, increasing demand may drive additional manufacturing capabilities leading to a better positioning

Iberia already holds a leading position that needs to be securedThe region has strong capabilities and experience from other sectors that can be leveraged for gaining a leading position

Iberia already holds a leading position that needs to be secured by increasing manufacturing capacityThe Iberian region currently a strong player in this field that may drive additional development leading to a better posit.Existing capacities are rather limited and would require much strengthening to achieve a better positioning

The region has strong capabilities and experience from BFOW that can be leveraged for gaining a leading position

25Value chain analysis: Iberian region poitioning

Source: Seaplace, Enzen analysis

O – None P – Low PP – Medium PPP – High

Capability strength in the Iberian region

Rep

licab

ility

of c

apab

ilitie

s

Hig

hM

ediu

mLo

w

Offshore cables

WTG - Nacelle

Moorings(synthetic ropes)

Bla

des

and

tow

ers

Floating structuresMoorings (steel chains)

Substations

The overlapping strength in floating structures, moorings and substations provides a basis for the Iberian region to build upon to become a technology and industrial hub of FOW

26FOWE impact in Spain


GDP contribution by activity (cum. 2020-2050) Job creation by activity (2050)

Nacelle4,2% Blades

6,6%Towers

3,4%

Floaters18,7%

Moorign systems14,8%

Marine elec. field

24,1%

O&M17,0%

Installation5,3%

Project develop.5,8%

Fabrication37,2%

O&M34,5%

Installation25,9%

Project develop.2,4%

TOTAL (cum. 2020-2050)

• Low scenario = EUR 84,843 million• High scenario = EUR 146,390 million

TOTAL (2050)

• Low scenario = 43,669 jobs (direct + indirect)• High scenario = 77,825 jobs (direct + indirect)

Fabrication (71.8%)

27EU Framework

Source: EU Comission, Enzen research

EC targets to comply with the Paris Agreement

2020 2030 2050

Cut in GHG emissions vs 1990 levels

20% 40%

Carbonneutral

EU energy from renewables

20% 32%

Improvements in energy efficiency

20% 33%

EC mechanisms to meet the renewable energy goals

Paris Agreement

Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit

the temperature increase to 1.5°C

2020Climate & energy

package

2030Climate & energy

framework

2050Long-term strategy

EC

me

ch

an

ism

s

• European Green Deal. Package of measures to reduce greenhouse gases and invest in R&D.

• EU Emission trading system (ETS). Key tool for cutting greenhouse gas emissions vs 2005 levels

Proposal for the first European Climate Law. Aims to write into law the goal set by the European

Green Deal – for Europe’s economy and

society to become climate-neutral by 2050.

21% 43%

• Non-ETS. Objective of reducing greenhouse gas emissions through effort sharing legislation

10%'Effort sharing decision'

30%'Effort sharing regulation'

• Renewable Energy Directive. Binding national targets for raising share of renewables. ‘Clean Energy for all Europeans package’

20% 32%

• Energy efficiency plan

• NECP (2021-2030)

• Energy efficiency directive

• National long-term strategies

28NECPs for the Iberian region

Source: Ministry for the ecological transaction and the demographic challenge; Enzen research

Spanish PNIEC goals 2030

Cut in GHG emissions vs 1990 levels 23%

End-use renewable energy 42%

Improvements in energy efficiency 39.5%

Renewable energy in electricity generation 74%

Total renewables in 2030 160.837 GW

Wind (on- and off-shore) 50.33 GW

Offshore wind Not specified

Spain Portugal• Spain’s NECP, known as PNIEC defines the objectives for the

reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, the penetration of renewable energies and energy efficiency. ‒ It determines the most appropriate and efficient path and lines of

action to follow in order to achieve the objectives stablished for the period 2021-2030:

Portuguese PNEC goals 2030

Cut in CO2 emissions vs 2005 levels 17%

Increase of RES in gross final consumption 47%

Increase energy efficiency 35%

Electrical interconnections 15%

• Portugal’s NECP, known as PNEC defines the national contributions and the main lines of action planned to meet EU's different global commitments‒ The objectives stablished for the period 2021-2030 are:

Total renewables in 2030 30.5 - 32 GW

Wind (on- and off-shore) 9.3 GW

Offshore wind 0.3 GW

29NECPs for other European countries

Source: WindEurope; Enzen research

30,0

15,011,5

7,04,0 3,7 3,5 3,2 0,9 0,3

10,0

5,0

0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

20,0

25,0

30,0

35,0

40,0

UK Germany Netherlands France Belgium Denmark Ireland Poland Italy Portugal

GW

NECP target

Further increase

30Spanish regulation

Source: IDAE; Enzen analysis

Regu

latio

n

Law 41/2010 . • Marine environment protectionRD 363/2017 • Maritime space planning

framework RD 79/2019• Compatibility with the marine

strategyCoastal Law 22/1988 & RD 876/2014 • General coastal regulation

Law 21/2013• defines the basis for an

Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA)

Royal Decree 584/1972• Air easements

Law 30/1992• On the Legal System for Public

Administrations and Administrative Procedure.

RD 1028/2007• Establishing the administrative

procedure for processing applications for authorisation of electricity generation facilities in the territorial sea

RD 1955/2000• Authorisation procedure for

electricity generation ₋ Request for Administrative

Authorisation (AA)₋ Project Execution Approval (AEP)₋ Exploitation Authorisation (EA)

Electricity sector Law 24/2013• Defines the framework for an

economic, efficient and sustainable electricity supply system. It defines the right of access to the network by electricity producers and their obligations

₋ It also defines the possibility of self-consumption (RD 244/2019) and the possibility of PPAs

₋ Regulation of the financial framework of renewables RD 413/2014

Future regulation and supporting mechanisms (e.g., feed-in tariffs, CfDs, auctions, etc.) will apply

Project site consenting Financial Close Operation

MITECO - GD Energy Policies and Mines

FOMENTO - AESA (State Agency for Air Safety)

MITECO - GD Biodiversity Environmental Quality

MITECO - GD Sustainability Coasts & Sea

Competent administration

31Spanish regulation: Projects smaller than 50 MW


Technical project

Environmental Impact Statement

Administrative authorisation Request

Grid connection Request

Grid operator resolution

Administrative authorisation issued

Environmental Impact Assessment

Occupation of the maritime –terrestrial public domain

Request

Occupation concession of the maritime –terrestrial public

domain

Marking area request Marking areaExecution project

request Execution project

Exploitation Authorisation request

Exploitation Authorisation

MITECO - GD Energy Policies and mines


Administrative process

Document submission

Project promoter

Port Authority

32Spanish regulation: Projects larger than 50 MW


Request for area reservation

Marine area characterisation

B.O.E publicationOpening call procedures

BOE and BOP publicationCall resolution y site

assignation

Proposal to the S.E. Energy

Occupation concession of the maritime –terrestrial

public domain

Valuation committee of DG PE&M

Other interested promoters

Suitable areas are only those defined in EEAL

Environmental evaluation processing

MITECO - GD Energy Policies and mines


MITECO - GD Biodiversity Environmental Quality

Administrative process

Document submission

Project promoter

To be addressed

Technical project

Administrative authorisation Request

Administrative authorisation issued


Source: AEE, IDAE; Enzen analysis

Outdated aspects of marine administrative processing for projects > 50 MW

Marine area characterisation• Procedures that overlap with the access and connection regulation

– The possibility of making the reservation of the available evacuation capacity, as it is done in the marine area characterisation, does not exist in the access and connexion regulation.

BOE and BOP publication forcall resolution and site

assignation

• Contradictory procedures– Art.17 states that the resolution of the reserved area initiates the environmental impact evaluation; however,

this is contradictory to art 25.1.b) which states that the EIA is presented much later and that’s when the authorisation procedures start

Valuation committee of the General Directorate for

Energy Policies and Mines (MITECO)

• Evaluation criteria is not available– In particular, the economic criteria based on the premium offer (EUR/kWh) is an outdated concept and

against current regulations

Suitable areas are only those defined in EEAL

• Outdated EEAL (environmental assessment of the littoral)– At the time the study was written, floating technology had not yet been developed and it does not take into

account the specific features of this technology versus bottom-fixed technologies, which have a higher impact– Since its approval in 2009 the environmental impact of offshore wind farms has reduced considerably

Other interested promoters • Reference to repealed RDs– Interested promoters have to request a prime based on the repealed RD 661/07


Source: Image credits: Statoil; Enzen analysis

• Local law applies as if it was any other infrastructure project (e.g., environmental protection, civil works permission, etc.)‒ Protected areas/natural reserves e.g. Lanzarote is biosphere reserve‒ Regions can choose to promote or block certain economic activities

Local legislation

National legislation

• National legislation applies to on-shore electrical infrastructure (e.g., In Spain this is regulated by the RD 1955/2000)

35Portuguese regulation


Project site consenting Financial Close Operation

Regu

latio

n

Law nº 17/2014• Basis for national maritime spatial

planning and management policy

Ordinance nº 239/2018• Minimum conditions to be met by

the mandatory social responsibility insurance of private maritime use certificate holders

Ordinance nº 128/2018• Sets the base charge value for the

private use of national maritime space and its calculation formula

Ordinance nº 125/2018• Regime and amount of the deposit

for maintenance of marine environment at the time of the private use termination

DL nº 139/2015• Bases for National Maritime Space

Planning and Management PolicyDL nº 38/2015• Develops Law 17/2014 Ordinance nº 11494/2015• National maritime space situation

plan

DL 152-B/2017• Legal regime for the evaluation of

the environmental impact of projects with effects on the environment

DL nº29/2006• Establishes the general framework

for the organisation and functioning of the Portuguese electricity system

• Amended by Law nº 42/2016

DL nº172/2006 • Regulates the legal regime

applicable for pursuing the activities of generation, transmission, distribution and supply of electricity and for the organisation of electricity markets

• Amended by Decree Law nº 76/2019

Ministry of finance National assembly

Ministry of agriculture

Ministry of sea

Issuing authority:

Ministry of environment and energy transition

Ministry of economy

36Portuguese regulation


TUPEM

Project promotor

DIncAEIA

DGEG - G.D. for Energy and Geology

DGRM - G.D. for Natural Resources, Safety and Maritime ServicesNational maritime authority

Administrative processDocument submission

Project Promotor

CCDR - Regional Coordination centre and Development Commission

APA - Portuguese Environment Agency

Grid connection Request

Network capacity reservation

Connexion point

Production license

TUPEM request

Production and operation

license

Maritime signalling project

Maritime security

certificate

Platform emergency

plan

Maritime Mobile Service

Identity

37Most common supporting mechanisms

Source: Climate Policy Info Hub, Enzen analysis

DescriptionAnalysis

Strengths Weaknesses

Regu

lato

ry

Pric

e-ba

sed

Inve

stm

ent-

focu

sed Fiscal incentives

• Reduction of taxes by various mechanisms in order to stimulate renewable energy • Reduce investment costs

• Can be a burden to public budget• Lower certainty due to changing political context

Investment incentives • Non-repayable monetary allocations for specific projects (grants)

• Applicable for R&D into RES innovations• Facilitates renewable energy deployment especially

in riskier environments

• Long-term sustainability after grant is over may often be problematic Payback and rate of return may be uncertain

Soft financing• Financial mechanisms which provides below

market interest charges and requirements or credit guarantees

• Reduces financing cost and risk for the developer • Usually covers CAPEX only

Gen

erat

ion-

focu

sed

FiTs, FiPsand CfDs

• Guarantees the purchase of the generated energy with a long-term contract and at cost-based purchase prices

• Provides legal security when well applied• Predictable revenue streams• Useful for supporting developing techs.

• Can be very costly• Appropriate design may require continued

adjustments through complex procedures

Qua

ntity

-bas

ed

Auctions(tendering mechanisms)

• Auctions are mechanisms to allocate financial support in a competitive bidding process for renewable generation (may also include investment support)

• Flexible in design to meet specific targets• Greater certainty for prices and quantities• Real price discovery• Commitments and transparency

• Relatively high transaction costs• Risk of underbuilding and delays• Discontinuous market development

Quota obligations with tradable

green certificates

• Based on the obligation of minimum shares of renewable electricity for power generators, suppliers or even consumers

• Policy targets can be achieved in a very cost-efficient way

• No risk of an uncontrolled growth of RES

• Additional merchant risk associated to green certificates trading prices tends to reduce its cost-effectiveness

Volu

nt.

Pric

e-b.

Corporate PPAs• Long-term contract under which a business

agrees to purchase electricity directly from an energy generator

• Predictable revenue streams• Increases bankability for project finance• Usually signed at prices below the market

• Bankability of the PPA is subject to the credit rating of the off-taker

38The UK case and the CfD instrument

Source: Offshore Wind Magazine, Enzen analysis

Results of the three allocation rounds of CfDs in the UK1

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2017-2018 2018-2019 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024 2024-2025

GW

GBP

/MW

h (2

012

pric

es)

Delivery year

Offshore wind capacity

Clearing price

Strike price

Eligibility criteria based on planning consent and grid connection agreementCompetition on price only• 15-year contract with strike price pay as

cleared• Reference prices based on future wholesale

price forecast12-month milestone delivery date for FID or 10% spend committedCfD allocation round every 2-years from 2019Only one FOW project of 12 MW (Forthwind) has been awarded in Round 3• The UK has proposed amendments to the CfD

scheme which would introduce FOW as a separate eligible technology with its own administrative strike price

Round 1 (2015) Round 2 (2017) Round 3 (2019)

• The next allocation is scheduled for 2021‒ The third round has driven prices so

low that developers could prefer to go merchant rather than take part in the next round

Key aspects

39Replication of UK CfD scheme for Iberian market development


-1.000

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

7.000

8.000

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Mill

ion

EUR

/ yea

r

-1.000

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

7.000

8.000

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Mill

ion

EUR

/ yea

r

Cost for the governments vs GDP contribution of FOW in Iberia (low scenario)

Cost for the governments vs GDP contribution of FOW in Iberia (high scenario)

CfD cost

Net GDP

Total GDP con

tr.

CfD cost

Net GDP

Total GD

P contr.

40Positioning and Purpose

The summary report can be found in the link:

https://info.innoenergy.com/eit-innoenergy-iberian-floating-offshore-wind-report

With the support and work from:

For their inputs and dissemination contribution:

https://info.innoenergy.com/eit-innoenergy-iberian-floating-offshore-wind-report

Innoenergy.com

EIT InnoEnergyKennispoort 6th floorJohn F. Kennedylaan 25612 AB EindhovenThe [email protected]

Javier Sanz

[email protected]

+34 678 730 111
mailto:[email protected]

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