Eitan Altman Feb 22nd, 2013BRANCHING PROCESSES Branching procecsses are used to describe the growth...

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CULTURE ET INTERNET Eitan Altman Feb 22nd, 2013

Transcript of Eitan Altman Feb 22nd, 2013BRANCHING PROCESSES Branching procecsses are used to describe the growth...

Page 1: Eitan Altman Feb 22nd, 2013BRANCHING PROCESSES Branching procecsses are used to describe the growth of populations. The key parameter is virality: the average number of direct offsprings

CULTURE ET

INTERNET

Eitan Altman

Feb 22nd, 2013

Page 2: Eitan Altman Feb 22nd, 2013BRANCHING PROCESSES Branching procecsses are used to describe the growth of populations. The key parameter is virality: the average number of direct offsprings

CONTENT:

Streaming applications over the Internet.

Example: Youtube. Tools for analyzing

popularity.

Social networks: twitter, facebook, linkedin.

Analysis tools for twitter and facebook.

Specialized social networks: vodcaster (cinema

and micro-critics).

Blogs and their analysis tools.

How to create a social network

Page 3: Eitan Altman Feb 22nd, 2013BRANCHING PROCESSES Branching procecsses are used to describe the growth of populations. The key parameter is virality: the average number of direct offsprings

CONTENT

Business models and popularity

Virality and buzzes in the internet

Access to knowledge and culture in the

Internet: Hadopi, the general license approach

Page 4: Eitan Altman Feb 22nd, 2013BRANCHING PROCESSES Branching procecsses are used to describe the growth of populations. The key parameter is virality: the average number of direct offsprings

BUSINESS MODELS AND POPULARITY

Targeted advertisement based on users’

profile.

Selling contents (e.g. tweets)

Selling services for social network users. E.g.:

direct access to a large number of users.

Both the content creator and the content provider

are interested in increasing popularity of content.

Also used as a source of reveniew

Page 5: Eitan Altman Feb 22nd, 2013BRANCHING PROCESSES Branching procecsses are used to describe the growth of populations. The key parameter is virality: the average number of direct offsprings

EXAMPLE: YOUTUBE

Page 6: Eitan Altman Feb 22nd, 2013BRANCHING PROCESSES Branching procecsses are used to describe the growth of populations. The key parameter is virality: the average number of direct offsprings

EXAMPLE: YOUTUBE

AD 1

AD 3

AD 2

Page 7: Eitan Altman Feb 22nd, 2013BRANCHING PROCESSES Branching procecsses are used to describe the growth of populations. The key parameter is virality: the average number of direct offsprings

EXAMPLE: YOUTUBE

AD 1

AD 3

AD 2

Recom

graph

Page 8: Eitan Altman Feb 22nd, 2013BRANCHING PROCESSES Branching procecsses are used to describe the growth of populations. The key parameter is virality: the average number of direct offsprings

POPULARITY

Various definitions of popularity of content:

Total number of views

Number of views in a given period

Number of “likes” or the rank

Degree of virality: how much did the network

contribute to the increase in the number of

viewers.

Other considerations: potential number of

interested users

Page 9: Eitan Altman Feb 22nd, 2013BRANCHING PROCESSES Branching procecsses are used to describe the growth of populations. The key parameter is virality: the average number of direct offsprings

CLASSIFICATION OF POPULARAITY MODELS

According to whether there is a fixed bounded target population or not.

Example: announcing an exhibition.

Examples of unbounded targets: news bulletin. The same person may be interested again in contacting a source of information.

Timelines

Time scale: even a bounded target population may behave as an unbounded if the infection rate is small enough

Page 10: Eitan Altman Feb 22nd, 2013BRANCHING PROCESSES Branching procecsses are used to describe the growth of populations. The key parameter is virality: the average number of direct offsprings

CLASSIFICATION

According to degree of virality

Page 11: Eitan Altman Feb 22nd, 2013BRANCHING PROCESSES Branching procecsses are used to describe the growth of populations. The key parameter is virality: the average number of direct offsprings

LINEAR GROWTH: IMMIGRATION.

There is only an external source of demand for

content. The network itself is not used to infect

other users.

Unbounded target population.

One does not get contaminated due to an

epidemic process, but due to intentional search

of a content.

Page 12: Eitan Altman Feb 22nd, 2013BRANCHING PROCESSES Branching procecsses are used to describe the growth of populations. The key parameter is virality: the average number of direct offsprings

MODELS OF EXPONENTIAL GROWTH:

BRANCHING PROCESSES

Branching procecsses are used to describe the growth of populations.

The key parameter is virality: the average number of direct offsprings of an individual.

If it is larger than 1 then we get exponential convex growth of the instantaneous population size.

If it is smaller than 1 then a finite population will be contaminated. The total poplation grows like a concave exponential function.

Page 13: Eitan Altman Feb 22nd, 2013BRANCHING PROCESSES Branching procecsses are used to describe the growth of populations. The key parameter is virality: the average number of direct offsprings

EPIDEMIC MODELS

In branching, one assumes that the distribution

of the number of off spring does not depend on

the population size.

In practice, the population may be limited. Thus

the more there are infected, the smaller is the

probability for new infected.

Page 14: Eitan Altman Feb 22nd, 2013BRANCHING PROCESSES Branching procecsses are used to describe the growth of populations. The key parameter is virality: the average number of direct offsprings

BOUNDED POPULATION VARYING VIRALITY:

Fraction of infected: 𝑑𝑥

𝑑𝑡= 𝑘𝑥 1 − 𝑥

Page 15: Eitan Altman Feb 22nd, 2013BRANCHING PROCESSES Branching procecsses are used to describe the growth of populations. The key parameter is virality: the average number of direct offsprings

EXAMPLES WITH X(0) = 0.0001, 0.01, 0.3

k=1 k=3

Page 16: Eitan Altman Feb 22nd, 2013BRANCHING PROCESSES Branching procecsses are used to describe the growth of populations. The key parameter is virality: the average number of direct offsprings

PROPAGATION MODELS WITHOUT VIRALITY,

WITH MAX POPULATION SIZE

Growth rate decreases

𝑑𝑥

𝑑𝑡= 𝑀(1 − 𝑥)

M is the size of the population that will be attained. There is an apriory limit.

Branching process with low virality: no a prioro limit. A finite population is attained simply because of a low interest in the content.

Page 17: Eitan Altman Feb 22nd, 2013BRANCHING PROCESSES Branching procecsses are used to describe the growth of populations. The key parameter is virality: the average number of direct offsprings

CURVES WITH DIFFERENT X(0)

Converge to 1

Page 18: Eitan Altman Feb 22nd, 2013BRANCHING PROCESSES Branching procecsses are used to describe the growth of populations. The key parameter is virality: the average number of direct offsprings

WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM YOUTUBE

As a general user

Page 19: Eitan Altman Feb 22nd, 2013BRANCHING PROCESSES Branching procecsses are used to describe the growth of populations. The key parameter is virality: the average number of direct offsprings

A LIST CONTAINING OTHER AD EVENTS:

SHARING AND EMBEDDING

Page 20: Eitan Altman Feb 22nd, 2013BRANCHING PROCESSES Branching procecsses are used to describe the growth of populations. The key parameter is virality: the average number of direct offsprings
Page 21: Eitan Altman Feb 22nd, 2013BRANCHING PROCESSES Branching procecsses are used to describe the growth of populations. The key parameter is virality: the average number of direct offsprings
Page 22: Eitan Altman Feb 22nd, 2013BRANCHING PROCESSES Branching procecsses are used to describe the growth of populations. The key parameter is virality: the average number of direct offsprings

Modern Classical

Music

Linear growth

Period: 1 year

Page 23: Eitan Altman Feb 22nd, 2013BRANCHING PROCESSES Branching procecsses are used to describe the growth of populations. The key parameter is virality: the average number of direct offsprings

EXAMPLE OF MODERN CLASSICAL MUSIC

LINEAR GROWTH OVER 5 YEARS 2007-2012

Page 24: Eitan Altman Feb 22nd, 2013BRANCHING PROCESSES Branching procecsses are used to describe the growth of populations. The key parameter is virality: the average number of direct offsprings

Contemporary

Classical music

Linear growth

5 years period

2007 - 2012

Page 25: Eitan Altman Feb 22nd, 2013BRANCHING PROCESSES Branching procecsses are used to describe the growth of populations. The key parameter is virality: the average number of direct offsprings

CONVEX PROCESS

Branching, or early epidemic phase

Page 26: Eitan Altman Feb 22nd, 2013BRANCHING PROCESSES Branching procecsses are used to describe the growth of populations. The key parameter is virality: the average number of direct offsprings

POPULAR CLASSICAL MUSIC

EPIDEMIC ROUTING ONE YEAR PERIOD.

Page 27: Eitan Altman Feb 22nd, 2013BRANCHING PROCESSES Branching procecsses are used to describe the growth of populations. The key parameter is virality: the average number of direct offsprings

MOZART: POPULAR CLASSICAL MUSIC,

A year and a half of a

Convex growth

Popular classical music

Page 28: Eitan Altman Feb 22nd, 2013BRANCHING PROCESSES Branching procecsses are used to describe the growth of populations. The key parameter is virality: the average number of direct offsprings

EPIDEMIC BEHAVIOR

Page 29: Eitan Altman Feb 22nd, 2013BRANCHING PROCESSES Branching procecsses are used to describe the growth of populations. The key parameter is virality: the average number of direct offsprings

2 years period

Epidemic routing

Populr classical music

Page 30: Eitan Altman Feb 22nd, 2013BRANCHING PROCESSES Branching procecsses are used to describe the growth of populations. The key parameter is virality: the average number of direct offsprings

CONCAVE BEHAVIOR

Page 31: Eitan Altman Feb 22nd, 2013BRANCHING PROCESSES Branching procecsses are used to describe the growth of populations. The key parameter is virality: the average number of direct offsprings

President Obama on Creating an Economy Built to Last

President Obama and the Fight for LGBT

Rights

Page 32: Eitan Altman Feb 22nd, 2013BRANCHING PROCESSES Branching procecsses are used to describe the growth of populations. The key parameter is virality: the average number of direct offsprings
Page 33: Eitan Altman Feb 22nd, 2013BRANCHING PROCESSES Branching procecsses are used to describe the growth of populations. The key parameter is virality: the average number of direct offsprings

HYBRID CONCAVE BEHAVIOR:

EXPONENTIAL AND LINEAR

Page 34: Eitan Altman Feb 22nd, 2013BRANCHING PROCESSES Branching procecsses are used to describe the growth of populations. The key parameter is virality: the average number of direct offsprings

President Obama on Creating an Economy Built to Last

President Obama and the Fight for LGBT

Rights

Page 35: Eitan Altman Feb 22nd, 2013BRANCHING PROCESSES Branching procecsses are used to describe the growth of populations. The key parameter is virality: the average number of direct offsprings

President Barack Obama 2009 Inauguration

and Address 3 years. Concave?

Epidemic?

Page 36: Eitan Altman Feb 22nd, 2013BRANCHING PROCESSES Branching procecsses are used to describe the growth of populations. The key parameter is virality: the average number of direct offsprings

COMBINATION: LINEAR GROWTH + CONCAVE

GROWTH, 2 MONTHS

Page 37: Eitan Altman Feb 22nd, 2013BRANCHING PROCESSES Branching procecsses are used to describe the growth of populations. The key parameter is virality: the average number of direct offsprings

“NON POPULAR VIDEOS”

Page 38: Eitan Altman Feb 22nd, 2013BRANCHING PROCESSES Branching procecsses are used to describe the growth of populations. The key parameter is virality: the average number of direct offsprings

UNPOPULAR VIDEO WITH MANY VIEWS AND

MANY DISLIKES

Page 39: Eitan Altman Feb 22nd, 2013BRANCHING PROCESSES Branching procecsses are used to describe the growth of populations. The key parameter is virality: the average number of direct offsprings
Page 40: Eitan Altman Feb 22nd, 2013BRANCHING PROCESSES Branching procecsses are used to describe the growth of populations. The key parameter is virality: the average number of direct offsprings

FAMOUS EXAMPLE

Why linear growth?

Page 41: Eitan Altman Feb 22nd, 2013BRANCHING PROCESSES Branching procecsses are used to describe the growth of populations. The key parameter is virality: the average number of direct offsprings
Page 42: Eitan Altman Feb 22nd, 2013BRANCHING PROCESSES Branching procecsses are used to describe the growth of populations. The key parameter is virality: the average number of direct offsprings

JUMP IN VIEWS DUE TO EXTERNAL EVENT (2ND

HOSPITALIZATION)

Page 43: Eitan Altman Feb 22nd, 2013BRANCHING PROCESSES Branching procecsses are used to describe the growth of populations. The key parameter is virality: the average number of direct offsprings

JUMP IN THE SLOPE OF THE LINEAR INCREASE

Page 44: Eitan Altman Feb 22nd, 2013BRANCHING PROCESSES Branching procecsses are used to describe the growth of populations. The key parameter is virality: the average number of direct offsprings
Page 45: Eitan Altman Feb 22nd, 2013BRANCHING PROCESSES Branching procecsses are used to describe the growth of populations. The key parameter is virality: the average number of direct offsprings
Page 46: Eitan Altman Feb 22nd, 2013BRANCHING PROCESSES Branching procecsses are used to describe the growth of populations. The key parameter is virality: the average number of direct offsprings
Page 47: Eitan Altman Feb 22nd, 2013BRANCHING PROCESSES Branching procecsses are used to describe the growth of populations. The key parameter is virality: the average number of direct offsprings

INFLUENCE OF OTHER VIDEOS IN THE CHANNEL

Page 48: Eitan Altman Feb 22nd, 2013BRANCHING PROCESSES Branching procecsses are used to describe the growth of populations. The key parameter is virality: the average number of direct offsprings
Page 49: Eitan Altman Feb 22nd, 2013BRANCHING PROCESSES Branching procecsses are used to describe the growth of populations. The key parameter is virality: the average number of direct offsprings

INFLUENCE OF PUBLICITY

Page 50: Eitan Altman Feb 22nd, 2013BRANCHING PROCESSES Branching procecsses are used to describe the growth of populations. The key parameter is virality: the average number of direct offsprings
Page 51: Eitan Altman Feb 22nd, 2013BRANCHING PROCESSES Branching procecsses are used to describe the growth of populations. The key parameter is virality: the average number of direct offsprings

VIDEO COMMENTS: EMBEDDING A VIDEO AS

COMMENTS

Page 52: Eitan Altman Feb 22nd, 2013BRANCHING PROCESSES Branching procecsses are used to describe the growth of populations. The key parameter is virality: the average number of direct offsprings
Page 53: Eitan Altman Feb 22nd, 2013BRANCHING PROCESSES Branching procecsses are used to describe the growth of populations. The key parameter is virality: the average number of direct offsprings

WHAT DO WE LEARN FROM YOUTUBE DATA

AS A CREATOR OF CONTENT:

How many views according to the profile (age, sex, location)

What brought the views: another social network? Another WEB site? The recommendation of Youtube? A search in Youtube etc.? Is it a mobile source?

Audience Retention

Page 54: Eitan Altman Feb 22nd, 2013BRANCHING PROCESSES Branching procecsses are used to describe the growth of populations. The key parameter is virality: the average number of direct offsprings

TRAFFIC

SOURCE

2103 views during 70 days

850 from recommendations of youtube

172 from other sites

Page 55: Eitan Altman Feb 22nd, 2013BRANCHING PROCESSES Branching procecsses are used to describe the growth of populations. The key parameter is virality: the average number of direct offsprings

TRAFFIC

SOURCE

Social Networks:

Linkedin (71)

Facebook(38)

(From INRIA: 5)

Page 56: Eitan Altman Feb 22nd, 2013BRANCHING PROCESSES Branching procecsses are used to describe the growth of populations. The key parameter is virality: the average number of direct offsprings

PROFILE:

LOCATION

France: 820

USA: 540

Unknown: 200

Next come locations where I gave talks:

India (87), Germany (37), Israel (27), Italy (24)

Page 57: Eitan Altman Feb 22nd, 2013BRANCHING PROCESSES Branching procecsses are used to describe the growth of populations. The key parameter is virality: the average number of direct offsprings

PROFILE: GENDER AND AGE

9,8% Fem views

4,4% Fem views in France

7,2% Fem views in US

Page 58: Eitan Altman Feb 22nd, 2013BRANCHING PROCESSES Branching procecsses are used to describe the growth of populations. The key parameter is virality: the average number of direct offsprings

AUDIENCE RETENSION (ALLOWS DIMENSIONNING)

Page 59: Eitan Altman Feb 22nd, 2013BRANCHING PROCESSES Branching procecsses are used to describe the growth of populations. The key parameter is virality: the average number of direct offsprings

SNOWBALL EPIDEMIC EFFECTS

Other acceleration

Factors:

• Other publishers

Embed content

• Comments and

Responses increase

visibility

Page 60: Eitan Altman Feb 22nd, 2013BRANCHING PROCESSES Branching procecsses are used to describe the growth of populations. The key parameter is virality: the average number of direct offsprings

PROPOSED TASKS

Create a video clip or a video slide show

(diaporama) on youtube,

Create a facebook page, embed the video.

Attain 30 “likes” for facebook

Compare statistics on the views of the video

over facebook using (1) youtube data, (2)

facebook data

Study: what type of content brought views/likes

both through questioners as well as stat.

Page 61: Eitan Altman Feb 22nd, 2013BRANCHING PROCESSES Branching procecsses are used to describe the growth of populations. The key parameter is virality: the average number of direct offsprings

EXAMPLES:

“Cause”: Laicity, Peace, etc.

Page on a particular tourist atraction

Videos on testimonies of events such as

resistence during 2nd world war, Algeria war,

Immigration, Civil war in Spain.

Cultural events (e.g. Marseille – cultural

capital).

Artistic creation

Page 62: Eitan Altman Feb 22nd, 2013BRANCHING PROCESSES Branching procecsses are used to describe the growth of populations. The key parameter is virality: the average number of direct offsprings

ACTIONS TO INCREASE VIDEO’S POPULARITY

Choice of title

Choice of tags

Choice of category

Videos: create sequences of videos

Embed as video comments

Create discussions

Embed in facebook pages