ETHIOPIAN DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH INSTITUTE

Rural roads, welfare and nutrition

David Stifel (Lafayette College) and Bart Minten (IFPRI)

1

Background

• Average calorie consumption 9% higher in last decade

• Poverty declined from 55% to 33% (1.9 USD per day)

• Stunting of children reduced from 57% to 40% (2000 – 2014)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2000 2005 2011

Kcal

/day

/ad

ult

eq

uiv

alen

t

cereals non-cereals

3

Background

• Important changes in Ethiopia in market access during that period

1996/1997 2010/2011

4

The Question:

What are the impacts of improved market access on household well-being and nutrition?

To what can we attribute these impacts?

5

Data

• Sample area selected purposefully

o Homogeneous region

o Except for transport costs

o Without a road

• Households’ circumstances differ because of different transport costs…

…not because of land characteristics, etc.

6

7

Market Access – Transport Costs

• Donkey costs (Birr/kg)

o Cost of renting donkey

o Weight donkey can carry

• Economic transport costs

o Include the opportunity cost of time

8

Household Per Capita Consumption & Market Access

0

50

010

00

15

00

20

00

25

00

Birr

/ pe

rson

0 20 40 60 80Transport Cost (Birr/kg)

Per Capita Household Consumption Food

Non-Food

9

Food Security

0.1

.2.3

Perc

ent o

f H

ouse

ho

lds

Least Remote Quintile 2 Quintile 3 Quintile 4 Most Remote

Worry Not Enough Food in Past 30 Days

1-2 Times 3-10 Times

10+ Times

10

Food Security0

.1.2

.3

Perc

ent o

f H

ouse

ho

lds

Least Remote Quintile 2 Quintile 3 Quintile 4 Most Remote

Ate Fewer Meals in Past 30 Days

1-2 Times 3-10 Times

10+ Times

0.1

.2.3

Perc

ent o

f H

ouse

ho

lds

Least Remote Quintile 2 Quintile 3 Quintile 4 Most Remote

Ate Smaller Meals in Past 30 Days

1-2 Times 3-10 Times

10+ Times

11

Dietary Diversity

01

23

45

6

Avera

ge

Num

ber

of F

ood

Gro

ups

0 20 40 60 80Transport Cost (Birr/kg)

All Household Members Chldren under age 5

Average Number of Food Groups in Household Diet

12

Child Stunting-6

-20

26

He

ight-

for-

Age

Z-s

core

0 20 40 60 80Transport Costs (Birr/Quintal)

bandwidth = .8

Stunting: HAZ < -2

• 36 percent stunted

• Statistically not different by remoteness

13

What can explain the relationship between market access and wellbeing?

1. Agricultural Production

2. Terms of trade

o Marketed surplus

o Purchased consumption items

14

Value of HH Agric Production

0

20

00

40

00

60

00

Birr

0 20 40 60 80Transport Cost (Birr/kg)

Total Production Cereals

Oilseeds Vegetables

Despite similarities in land productivity…

15

Household Marketed Surplus

0

20

00

40

00

60

00

Birr

0 20 40 60 80Transport Cost (Birr/kg)

Total Production Marketed Surplus

Own Consumption

16

Household Food Consumption & Market Access

0

50

010

00

15

00

20

00

25

00

Birr

/ pe

rson

0 20 40 60 80Transport Cost (Birr/kg)

Per Capita Food Consumption Purchased

Own-Consumption

17

Household Food Purchases

0

10

00

20

00

30

00

40

00

50

00

Birr

0 20 40 60 80Transport Cost (Birr/kg)

Total Food Purchases Meat

Beverages Cereals

Spices (incl salt & sugar)

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Nutrition knowledge and its impact on children’s dietary diversity

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Conclusions

Households with greater market access have…

• Greater consumption

• More food security

• Greater dietary diversity

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Conclusions

These differences may be attributed to…

• Greater agricultural production

• Improved terms of trade that result in increased…o Marketed agricultural

surplus

o Purchased consumption goods

21

Conclusions

• But, no discernable effects on nutrition outcomes

• Why?o Number of food groups low for all households

o Food consumption alone is not enough to affect nutrition outcomes

o Limited access to clean water, sanitation & healthcare throughout the survey area

o Knowledge on nutrition impact, but more impact if closer to market