8/4/2019 Effect of Climate Change on Agriculture in Pakistan

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/effect-of-climate-change-on-agriculture-in-pakistan 1/4

Effect of Climate Change on Agriculture

in Pakistan

Theme of Article

Following Article analyze the effect of climate change on Agriculture sector of Pakistan.

Because of time and resources shortage not all corps can be studied, that’s why Article

have considered the Rabi season for study, and takes into consideration 3 major corps

Wheat, Rice and Maize. Analyzing the period of 1987-2004, article has also highlighted

the developments in the Agriculture sector, and article also shows how these

developments have minimized the adverse effect of climate change.

According to a study by LEAD Climate Change Action Plan of Pakistan, estimated

losses from this climate change can be 4-5 billion dollars. The main agriculture crop

throughout Pakistan is Wheat with an approximate share of 60-80% in cropped area,

next comes Rice and then Maize. Punjab area is best suited for Wheat production, Sindh

& Baluchistan for Rice and NWFP for Maize.

Author has used the Neo-Classical growth model to analyze the food crop output of

Pakistan. According to this model output per hectare is assumed to be a function of,

fertilizer used per hectare, credits devoted to the Agriculture sector, irrigation (no. of

Private and Public tube wells per hectare), labor force per hectare, no. of tractors used

per hectare, average of temperature during Rabi season, Average monthly rainfall in

mm during Rabi season and a drought variable.

After a careful analysis of data between 1987-2004 effect of different variables was

found to be:

Variable Coefficient Variable Coefficient

Fertilizer 2206.158 Credits for Agri. 1163.072

Public Tube wells -10.082 Private Tube wells 5.862Labor Force -134.712 Tractors 3958.439Temperature -43.917 Rain 1.558Drought -89.795 WFCY 1209.419These findings indicate that a one unit increase in Fertilizer, Credits for Agriculture, in

no. Private Tube wells, Tractors, Rain will increase the output by 2206 kg, 1163 kg, 5.8

kg, 3958 kg, and 1.56 kg respectively. Whereas a unit increases in Temperature, Labor

8/4/2019 Effect of Climate Change on Agriculture in Pakistan

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/effect-of-climate-change-on-agriculture-in-pakistan 2/4

Force, Public Tube wells and Drought will decrease the output by 43 kg, 134 kg, 10 kg,

and 89 kg respectively.

The avg. temperature of Sindh, Baluchistan, and Punjab has increased but on the other

hand decrease in temperature in NWFP has been observed. So to deal with the adverse

effect of temperature Agriculture sector should increase the use of Tractors, Fertilizers,

Private Tube wells, and Govt. should take steps to provide better access of Credits to

Agriculture sector.

My opinion

-  Agriculture Sector also includes Live Stock, Fishery and Forestry. But the authors

have not considered these portions in their study.

-  Articles suggest that increasing the number of Private Tube wells per hectare will

increase the Production, but it does not consider the issue of decrease in

underground water levels. So increasing the no. of tube wells will speed up the

decreasing water level, which can be harmful not only for farmers but for the

general public as well.

Critical Analysis

Author has just considered Temperature and Rainfall in his study, just two variable ofclimate change, and these two do not fully explain the effect of climate change. Climate

change includes others variable also for e.g. Floods, Glacier melting because of Global

warming, reduction in the ozone layer, climate pollution due to increase in carbon level

etc.

Article does not highlights the issue that increasing the fertilizer amount used, pollutes

the underground stock of water, and fertilizer grown crops have some side effects,

which can harm human health. Author is just focusing on ends not the means.

Conclusion

To me, Article just studies the effect of Temperature and amount of Rainfall on

Agriculture output. It does not fully study the effect of Climate change, which is a much

broader phenomenon.

8/4/2019 Effect of Climate Change on Agriculture in Pakistan

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/effect-of-climate-change-on-agriculture-in-pakistan 3/4

Determinants of FDI in CPS of Pakistan

Theme of Article

This Article examines which factors affect the Foreign Direct Investment in Commodity

Producing Sector of Pakistan. Article highlights the importance of FDI for developing

countries in its introductory section, and has proved that FDI to be the backbone for a

developing country like Pakistan. For this reason Govt. of Pakistan has offered tax

exemptions and many other incentives to foreign investors and to encourage them

Govt. has introduced “Equal Investment Opportunity” for home and host countries.

Article has studied the past data of FDI in Pakistan and it showed that Pakistan have

received a total of $5409.8 million of FDI during fiscal year 2007-08, which is 5.27%higher than FY 2006-07 and 53.64% higher than FY 2005-06. Past data also indicates that

during recent years Service sector have taken the lead in attracting more FDI than CPS

of Pakistan.

Article studies the affect of Gross Domestic Product, Real Growth rate of GPD in

Commodity Producing sector, Gross Fixed Capital Formation, Foreign Exchange

Reserves, Degree of Trade Openness, and per Capita Income on Foreign Direct

Investment in Pakistan. By collecting the data from sample period 1996Q1 -2008Q4

Correlation and Regression analysis have been conducted between FDI and above

mentioned variables. And variables are found to be positively or directly related with

FDI.

My Opinion

-  New trade policy of Pakistan is good, can be useful for attracting foreign

investors, but CPS cannot be beneficial for these foreign investors until Govt.

controls the problems of electricity shortfall and security problems.

-  CPS sector especially Agriculture sector is badly affected by floods, and

irrigation problems and experiencing negative growth excluding livestock… if I

was a investor, I would never invest in such bad situation.

8/4/2019 Effect of Climate Change on Agriculture in Pakistan

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/effect-of-climate-change-on-agriculture-in-pakistan 4/4

Critical Analysis

CPS of Pakistan is facing some serious problems such as Electricity and Power

shortages, Floods and security issues. According to a study by LEAD Climate Change

Action Plan of Pakistan, estimated losses from the climate change can be 4-5 billion

dollars.

Devastating floods have deducted about 2 percentage points from the GDP growth. .

The floods made massive damage of $10 billion on country’s economic structure. Some

20 million people were displaced as more than 50,000 Sq. Km area was covered in

water.  Large-scale manufacturing  remained victim of power outages and lower

domestic demand, engineering product, steel product, electronic, non-metallic minerals,

petroleum products (Pakistan Economic Survey 2011). As reported, an area of 2.364

million hectares under Kharif Crops 2010 was damaged by Floods (SUPARCO).

Conclusion

After reading article and conducting the literature review, conclusion can be drawn that

despite of sound trade Policy, improvements need to be made in Infrastructure, security

issues need to be resolved and specially Energy sector to attract FDI.