Education Week -- October 6 th, 2010 ….visionary leadership and strong administrative skills…....
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Education Week -- October 6th, 2010
….visionary leadership and strong administrative skills….
“…$230,000, plus and excellent comprehensive benefits package…..”
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“..No one of us… is as good as all of us…”
Dave Steckel
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“Christensen credits the Tigers’ success to Pinkel, who he said was so detail-oriented that if a pass route required receivers to make a cut at 12 ½ yards, they had better not do it at 12 or 13.”The New York Times, Oct24, 2010
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What Leaders do…..
Make you think you can do things you didn’t think you could do…. ….. and “demand” you do it.
More than skill development -- engagement
Building a good team …. (don’t go alone!)
… quality people and smart social capital A Vision ..to care about .. A Plan to work
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Who has made a difference in your life
… in your professional career….
What was their vision?
How did it engage you?
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• Data Data • Information Information • Knowledge Knowledge • Wisdom Wisdom
“The construction of knowledge involves more the orderly loss of information than it’s meaningless accumulation.”
-- Kenneth Boulding
Office of Social and Economic Data AnalysisUniversity of Missouri
Indicators are conceptually connected data ..answers to questions arising from the logic of the program model
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Utilization Focused Information “Answers” are “useful” when they reduce the risks of
making the wrong decision.
To know you have asked the “right” questions and produced “useful” answers….
focus on decision makers (Stakeholders) and decision-making (Choices)
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Educational Decision-Making
• Formative– “Improve”– Periodic and timely– Focus on program
activities and outputs– Leads to early
recommendations for program improvement
• Summative – “Prove”– Were resources
committed worthwhile?– Focus on outcomes and
impact– Measures value of
program based on impact
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Choosing and Getting to Port(Where we’re going)
Plotting a Course (Making a plan)
Estimating Position(Where we might be)
Taking a “FIX”(where we really are) “Set and Drift”
Adjusting Course
“Summative” Result
“Formative” InformationLearning is a journey, not a just a destination.
Navigation ...
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Other “Models”
• Logic Models NSF • Comprehensive School Improvement Plans• Operational Tasks Plans (matrices)
– Objective, indicator, metric, target.
• Getting Focused…– Important Impacts…
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The MSIP Educational Framework
Resources Processes
Performance
Demographic Context
Challenging Times….
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Academic AchievementCollege and Career ReadinessAttendanceHigh School Graduation
and soon….Early Learning
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D R A F T
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The MSIP Educational Framework
Resources Processes
Performance
Demographic Context
Challenging Times….
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Demographic Context
Demographic factors are not an“excuse”…. they can beexplanatory factors…
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**
* **
*
U.S. Increase 9%
Missouri 7%
Six States account for 55%
Quick Review of Demographics
Total Population 2009
World: 6.8 Billion
U.S.: 307 Million
Mo.: 5,987,580
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In Missouri nearly 80% of us live on about 3% of our land
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Diverse Trends: Regions within Regions – and within urban areas
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Challenging Times….
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Challenging Times ... Regional Differences
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Patterns of Growth
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Patterns of Growth
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Expanding Stakeholder Groups
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Latino Growth
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Male FemaleMale Female
Population Pyramids of MissouriPercent of Total Population2000 2020
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Quality of Life --- Children
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Stuff happens…
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From the “Employer” Report:Returns to Associate Degrees
Educational Issues – building expectations
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From the “Employer” Report:Returns to Bachelor Degrees
Educational Issues – building expectations
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On the Brink of New Data• New American Community Survey• New (5 year) ACS in December• New 2010 counts in December• Be careful with small areas
– Plus and Minus of Estimates is large
New Census Estimates
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Educational Resources
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ResourcesMaximum Calendar Days and Hours, 2005-2009
Missouri
Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Total Calendar Days
175 174.9 173.8 174.3 174.6
Total Calendar Hours
1,095 1,100 1,099 1,092 1,095
Length of the Day (Hours)
6.2 6.2 6.2 6.3 6.3
Challenging Times….
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Educational ProcessesProfessional Practice
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STUDENTS: Efficacy & expectations explains 17.2% of the variance in communication arts achievement
17.2%45.5%
37.3%
Race and SES
Efficacy &Expectations
Other
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MSIP “AQ”Efficacy/Expectations Scale
(Students)
1. If I do well in school, it will help me when I grow up.
2. Being successful in school today will help me in my future.
3. I can do well in school.4. I learn a lot in this school.
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Efficacy/Expectations Scale(Students)
5. My teachers think I can learn.6. My family believes that I can do well
in school.7. My teachers expect very good work
from me.
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STUDENTS: Efficacy & expectations explains 17.2% of the variance in communication arts achievement
17.2%45.5%
37.3%
Race and SES
Efficacy &Expectations
Other
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CLASSROOM OBSERVATION
• Prevailing instructional practice• Instructional assessment and improvement• Opportunity for Instructional leadership
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Educational Performance
Student Growth Models
StudentGrowth Percentiles
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PERFORMANCE DATA
•Annual Performance Report (APR)•APR and AYP disaggregated by gender, race, free and reduced lunch, etc. •MAP/EOC Results•Benchmark or Common Assessments•Student Growth Data
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Growth Models Explored to Date
• Missouri AYP “Increment” Model• Student Growth Percentiles using R (SGP)• Hierarchical Linear Models (HLM)• Ordinary Square Regression (OLS)• Mixed Models
All of these have advantages depending on the question and the audience
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Spearman’s Rho Correlations of Growth Percentiles among Growth Models
Data: MAP 2006-2008 Communication Arts, Cohort Grade 5 in 2008 (N=56,231)
Note. SGP = Student Growth Percentile; HLM = Hierarchical Linear Modeling; OLS = Ordinary Least Squares.
Growth Models SGP HLM OLS Mixed Model
SGP_Betebenner 1.000
HLM .990 1.000
OLS .986 .989 1.000
Mixed Model .986 .989 .999 1.000
All Models are Highly Correlated
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• A student’s progress compared to other students with similar MAP score history
• A student’s growth percentile indicates the percentage of students, starting at the same place, that the student’s growth exceeded
• Typical growth is equal to 50th percentile• Similar to pediatric growth charts
What is a Student Growth Percentile (SGP)?
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• How much growth did a child make in one year? (What is?)
• How much growth is enough to reach proficient or advanced? (What should be?)
• How much growth is the best in Missouri (What could be?)
Questions Answeredby Growth Model
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Relationship of Status to Growth
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Including benchmark and authentic assessment
A “personal”growth planfor every student
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What is Next Regarding Performance• Explore Various Types of Growth Models
• Growth measures on APRs
• Explore Student Growth to Inform Instructional Decision-making
• Explore Practical Data Visualization Options for Student Growth Percentiles– Missouri Pilot Project 2010-2011– Include Benchmark and Local Assessments
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Leadership
What are our leadership Challenges?
Communicating vision clearly
Preparing the environment for what is coming next…..