Special Topic

Education and theChanging Job Market

An education centered on complex thinkingand communicating is a graduate's passport to prosperity.

Frank Levy and Richard J. Murnane

U.S. educators may questionwhether it makes economicsense to educate all studentsto meet demanding academicstandards. After all, newspa-

pers are full of reports about the comput-erization of once-secure U.S.-bascd jobsand outsourcing to countries that paylower wages. And the U.S. Bureau oflabor Statistics predicts that the fastest-growing tKcupation in the United Statesover the next decade will be f<MHlpreparers and servers. If more and morejobs are going to be claimed bycomptiters or workers in other cotin-tries, and if the fastest-gn>wing U.S. occu-pation is one for which workers requirefew skills, don t current educationreform initiatives clash with theeconomic realities to come?

The central message from ourresearch is that there is no suchconflict. Those with strong skills do nothave to worry about mass unetnploy-ment or underemployment. On thecontrary: The great danger is the contin-uing decline in earnings opportunitiesfor people who lack the skills to dowork requiring expert thinking andcomplex communication. The jobs lostto computerization and to other coun-tries are not coming back. What weshould focus on is raising studentachievement in math, science, andreading because complex, technicalskills will be necessary for the newcentury s jobs.

80 EDUCATIONAL LKADERSHIP/OCTOBER 2004

How Is the Job Mix Changing?The ()ccupatit»nal stmttiirc in the UnitedStates is "hollowing out"—that is, we arelosing jobs in the middle while gainingjobs at the top and bottom ends of thewage scale. In Figure 1, the nation'soccupations are grouped into sevencategories, arrayed from lowest-payingon the left to highest-paying on theright. The job categories that declined inimportance between 1969 and 1999 areblue<'oUar occupations (for example,assembly line workers) and administra-tive support occupations (for example,file clerks). The lowest-paid category,service sector occupations (for example,janitors, waiters, and security guards)grew moderately and is continuing to doso. However, the higher-paid job cate-gories—technical occupations (forexample, nurse practitioners), profes-sional occupations (for example,teachers), and managerial and adminis-trative occupations—have experiencedthe greatest growth.

Moreover, these trends havecontinued during the past four years asthe nation has recovered from recession.Between June 2000 and June 2004, thecombined total of li.S, jobs in the tech-nical, professional, and managerial cate-gories increased by 1,9 million, and thenumber of jobs in the service sectorcategory—a category' that includes foodpreparers and servers—increased by 2million. However, this trend wasbalanced by declines of 2.2 million inthe blue-collar occupations category' and900,000 in the administrative supportoccupations category,

The categories in which jobs aredeclining have historically providedwork to the majority of U,S. high schoolgraduates who do not go on to college.Therefore, young people who leave liiglischool today must be able to succeed inthe postsecondar)' education or trainingprogram that they will need to accessthe growing uumber of relativel)- high-wage jobs. Youth who graduate ill-

1- 1 G U R E 1 The U.S. Adult Occupation Distribution:

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equipped to handle further training willfind themselves competing for servicesector jobs, and—although the numberof such jobs is increasing—most do notprovide financial security.

Why Has the JobDistribution Changed?Advances in computerization play a keyrole in the changing job distribution inthe United States, Every job requiresworkers to process information.Numbers in a report, the look on acustomers face, the taste of a sauce, thesound of a faltering automobile engine-people process all this information intheir daily work to help them decidewhat to do next. Computers excel atrules-based tasks—those in which infor-mation can be processed through aseries of logical rules or simple patternrecognition. For instance, the task ofi.s.suing a boarding pass to an airlinepassenger follows simple steps andlogic-based rules:

• Identify the passenger byreading the account numberon his or her credit card,

• Does the number on thecredit card match a reserva-tion in the database (yes/no)?

• If no—reject the request;if yes—does the passengerhave a seat assignment in thedatabase (yes/no)?

• If no—show the avail-able seats and prompt thecustomer to choose one; ifyes—complete the transac-tion.

Becau.se computers canprocess this information byapplying rules, self-servicekiosks rather than desk agentsnow issue many boardingpasses. The same holds truefor thousands of administra-tive support jobs.

Moreover, when thegreater portion of a job canbe described in rules, or cadi-fied, people or machines farfrom the customer seekingthe service can do that jobwith minimal risk of misun-derstanding. Man\' call-center

A S S O C I A T I O N FOR S U P E R V I S I O N AND CHRRK.III.VIM D E V E L O P M E N T 81

jobs are considered codified becauseeverything the operator needs to knowcan be written in scripts. These are thekinds of jobs that companies are sendingoutside the United States.

To choose a manufacturing example,Boeing designs aircraft modules usingcomputer-assisted design softw are thatgenerates a set of instructions—rules—for computer-controlled machine tools.The machine tools making the parts maybe located in China, Japan, or Italy; thus,fewer U.S. workers now make aircraftmodules.

Will Computers CreateMass Unemployment?If there were only a fixed amount ofwork in the economy, the growing capa-bility of computers would translate intomass unemployment. But advances incomputerization create new tasks eachyear. For example, computerizationmade possible complex mutual funds

Advances in

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involving derivatives. Valuing thesecomplex new funds, which involvesboth complex communication and non-routine problem solving, is a task thatonly humans can do.

Alarm about a possible mass loss ofjobs is nothing new. In 1880—the lastyear in which half of the workforceworked in agriculture—no one couldhave predicted that the United Stateswould be a net exporter of agriculturalproducts in 2004, with less than 3percent of the workforce employed inagriculture. If they had foreseen this

r- , -- ,1 n r T Trends in Tasks Done by the U.S. WorkforceF I G U R E 2 1 9 6 9 - 1 9 9 8 ( 1 9 6 9 = 0 )

-•— Complex Communication-A- Routine Cognitive Work

Source: Adapted from Autor, Levy, & Murnane (2003). Used with permission

Expert ThinkingRoutine Manual Work

result, people would have assumed thatthe unemployment rate would soar.That hasn't happened, because workersin the United States are doing hundredsof jobs that didn t exist in 1880.

Which Human SkillsDoes the Labor Market Value?As illustrated in Figure 2, changes in thedistribution of U.S. jobs have increasedthe importance of two tj'pes of skills:expert thinking and complex cotnmuni-cation.

Expert thinking is the ability to solvenew problems that cannot be solved byapplying rules. Tasks requiring expertthinking run the gamut from fixing anunexpected problem in a car to creatinga new dish in a restaurant.

Many jobs considered blue-collarinvolve expert thinking as well asmanual labor; workers continuallyencounter new problems for which theyhave to construct new solutions. Forexample, today's auto repair techniciansuse computer-based diagnostic tools totest cars—but expert thinking must kickin when the computer diagnostics indi-cate that all systems are functioning yetthe car is not performing adequately.

Complex communication is the abilityto not only elicit and transmit informa-tion but also convey a particular inter-pretation of information to others. Jobsin teaching, selling, managing, and nego-tiation require this set of skills. If astudent downloads a calculus lessonfrom a teaching Web site, the studentwill have access to the information—butthere is no guarantee that the studentwill understand it. It takes a goodteacher to present the information in away that helps students translate infor-mation into usable knowledge.

Complex communication is equallyimportant in sales. Customers whoknow exactly what they want can orderfrom a Web site without human interac-tion. But only subtle human contact canconvince a reluctant customer to buy.Good salespeople are continually modi-fying their arguments as they read thecustomer s facial expression and listento the customer's questions. Selling isdifficult to express in rules, and so itremains a human endeavor.

82 EDUCATIONAL LEADERSHIP/OCTOBER 2004

Figure 2 also illustrates the decliningimportance of routine manual work(such as manufacturing products on anassembly line) and routine cognitivework (such as filing and b(K)kkeeping).These arc the easiest types of tasks tocomputerize.

What ShouldSchools Focus On?Although it is cnicial tor schools to helpstudents gain expert thinking andcomplex commimication skills, theyshould not stop teaching basic skills.People must have literacy and mathskills to become expert thinkers in anyfield. And students can lcam the skillsneeded to be good at complex commu-nication and expert thinking as theystudy any subject area.

Tlie challenge posed by a changingeconomy is not to teach new subjects,but to teach all subjects so that studentsdevelop complex understanding andcommunication skills. Young peoplewill need these complex skills tosucceed in additional education ortraining and in almost any job that pays adecent salary.

The following t vo student responsesto a short oral quiz (PeDegrino,Chudowsky, & Cllazcr. 20()l) demon-strate the role of critical thinking skills instudent learning. They show the differ-ence bet^veen memorizing a historicalfact in isolation and connecting thatknowledge to a deeper understanding ofliistory. Only the second student hasstudied history' in a way that fostered theability' to think critically and communi-cate clearly about historical realities.

Student I:Q, What was the date of the defeat of

the Spanish Armada?A. 1588.Q. How do you know this?A, It was one of the dates I memo-

dzed for the exam.Q, Wliy is the event important?A: I don't know.

Student 2:Q, Wliat was the date of the defeat of

the Spanish Armada?A, It must have been around 1590.Q. How do you know this?

F I G U R E Changes in Earnings Gap Be tween

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A, I know the English began to senlein Virginia just after 16(X), althougli Imnot sure of the exact date. Theywouldn't have dared start overseasexplorations if Spain still had control ofthe seas. It would have taken a littlewhile to get expeditions organized, soEngland must have gained navalsupremacy somewhere in the late 1500s.

Q. Why is the event important?A, It marks a turning point in the rela-

tive importance of England and Spain asEuropean powers and colonizers of theNew World.

Will Better EducationAffect Earnings?The earnings gap between college-educated workers and high school grad-uates has increased markedly in recentdecades (see fig. 3). Moreover, the earn-ings of high school graduates havedeclined. If U.S. schools prepare morestudents to succeed in postsecondaryeducation, the college-high school earn-ings gap will decline. But if a greaterpercentage of high school graduates donot enroll in and complete college, thisgap will continue to grow.

The dramatic changes taking place inthe U,S, economy jeopardize the

economic future of students who leavehigh school without the problem-solving and communication skills essen-tial to success in postsecondary educa-tion and in the growing number ofhigh-paying jobs in the economy. Toback away from education reforms thathelp all students master these skills is togive up on the commitment to equalopportunity for all, 13

ReferencesAutor, D,, Levy, F,, & Miimane, R, (2003).

The skill content of recent technologicalchange: An empirical exploration. Quar-terly Journal of Economics, lJ8i4).

Pellegrino, J,, Chudowsky, N., & Glazer, R.(Eds.). (2001). Knowing what studentsknow: Tbe science and design ofeducational assessment. Washington,DC: National Academy Press,

Frank Levy is Rose Professor of UrbanEconomics at the Massachusetts Instituteof Technology; flevy@mit,edu- Richard J.Murnane is Thompson Professor ofEducation and Society at the HarvardGraduate School of Education; richard_murnane@han/ard,edu. Their mostrecent book is The New Division of Labor:How Computers Are Creating the NextJob Market (Princeton University Press,2004).

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