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    INTRODUCTION TO ECONOMICSINTRODUCTION TO ECONOMICSAND INDIAN ECONOMYAND INDIAN ECONOMY

    ByBy

    Dr. JONARDAN KONERDr. JONARDAN KONER

    ASSOCIATE PROFESSORASSOCIATE PROFESSOR

    NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF CONSTRUCTIONNATIONAL INSTITUTE OF CONSTRUCTION

    MANAGEMENT AND RESEARCH, PUNE.MANAGEMENT AND RESEARCH, PUNE.

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    INTRODUCTIONINTRODUCTION

    Economics is the study of how economic agents or societies

    choose to use scarce productive resources that havealternative uses to satisfy wants which are unlimited and of

    varying degrees of importance.

    The main concern of economics is economic problem: its

    identification, description, explanation and solution. The source of any economic problem is scarcity.

    Scarcity of resources forces economic agents to choose

    among alternatives.

    Therefore, economic problem can be said to be a problem ofchoice and valuation of alternatives.

    The problem of choice arises because limited resources with

    alternative uses are to be utilized to satisfy unlimited wants,

    which are of varying degrees of importance. 22

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    INTRODUCTIONINTRODUCTION

    Scarcity is a relative concept.

    It can be define as excess demand, i.e., demand more than

    the supply.

    For example, unemployment is essentially the scarcity of

    jobs. Inflation is essentially scarcity of goods.

    Economics is essentially the study of logic, tools and

    techniques of making optimum use of the available

    resources to achieve the ends.

    Economics thus provides analytical tools and techniques

    that managers need to achieve the goals of the organization

    they manage.

    Therefore, a working knowledge of economics, not

    necessarily a formal degree, is essential for mangers.

    The job of any efficient manager is of economic one. 33

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    INTRODUCTIONINTRODUCTION

    Decision-making is the main job of management.

    Decision-making involves evaluating various alternatives

    and choosing the best among them.

    For example, a marketing manager is to allocate his / her

    advertising budget among various media in such a way soas to maximize the reach.

    Managers are essentially practicing economists.

    In performing his/her functions, a manager has to take a

    number of decisions in conformity with the goals of thefirm.

    Many business decisions are taken under the condition of

    uncertainty and risk.44

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    INTRODUCTIONINTRODUCTION Uncertainty and risk arise mainly due to uncertain behavior

    of the market forces, changing business environment,

    emergence of complexity of the modern business world andsocial and political, external influence on the domestic

    market and social and political changes in the country.

    The complexity of the modern business world adds

    complexity to business decision-making.

    However, the degree of uncertainty and risk can be greatly

    reduced if market conditions are predicted with a high

    degree of reality.

    The prediction of the future course of business environment

    alone is not sufficient.

    It is important equally to take appropriate business decisions

    and to formulate a business strategy in conformity with the

    goals of the firm. 55

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    A GENERAL LISTING OF DESIRED ECONOMIC GOODS & LIMITED RESOURCESA GENERAL LISTING OF DESIRED ECONOMIC GOODS & LIMITED RESOURCES

    Economic Goods (Wants) Limited Resources

    Food (Rice, Bread, Milk, Eggs,

    Vegetables, Tea, Coffee, Sugar, etc.)

    Clothing (Shirts, Pants, Shoes, Socks,

    Coats, Sweaters, etc.)

    Household Goods (Tables, Chairs, Rugs,

    Beds, TV, Dressers, etc.)Education

    National Defense

    Recreation

    Leisure Time

    EntertainmentClean Air

    Pleasant Environment (Trees, Lakes,

    Rivers, Open Space, etc.)

    Pleasant Working Conditions

    More Productive Resources

    Land (Various Degrees of Fertility)

    Natural Resources ( Rivers, Trees,

    Minerals, Oceans, etc.)

    Machines and Other Human-

    Made

    Physical Resources

    Non-Human Animal Resources

    Technology (Physical and Scientific

    Recipes of History)Human Resources (Knowledge, Skill,

    And talent of Individual Human Beings)

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    NATURE OF MANAGERIAL ECONOMICSNATURE OF MANAGERIAL ECONOMICS

    Taking appropriate business decisions requires a clear

    understanding of the technical and environmental conditionsunder which business decisions are taken.

    Application of economic theories to explain and analyze the

    technical conditions and the business environment

    contributes a good deal to the rational decision-makingprocess.

    Economic theories have, therefore, gained a wide range of

    application in the analysis of practical problems of business.

    With the growing complexity of business environment, the

    usefulness of economic theory as a tool of analysis and its

    contribution to the process of decision-making has been

    widely recognized.88

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    NATURE OF MANAGERIAL ECONOMICSNATURE OF MANAGERIAL ECONOMICS

    Baumol has pointed out three main contributions ofeconomic theory to business economics.

    First, 'one of the most important things which the economictheories can contribute to the management science' is building analytical models, which help to recognize thestructure of managerial problems, eliminate the minor

    details, which might obstruct decision-making and help toconcentrate on the main issue.

    Secondly, economic theory contributes to the businessanalysis 'a set of analytical methods' which may not be

    applied directly to specific business problems, but they doenhance the analytical capabilities of the business analyst.

    Thirdly, economic theories offer clarity to the variousconcepts used in business analysis, which enables the

    managers to avoid conceptual pitfalls. 99

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    SCOPE OF MANAGERIAL ECONOMICSSCOPE OF MANAGERIAL ECONOMICS

    The problems in business decision-making and forward

    planning can be grouped into four categories as follows: Problems of Resource Allocation: Source resources are to

    be used with utmost efficiency to get the optimal results.

    These include production programming and problems of

    transportation, etc. Inventory and Queuing Problems: Inventory problems

    involve decisions about holding of optimal levels of stocks

    of raw materials and finished goods over a period. These

    decisions have to be taken by considering demand andsupply conditions.

    Queuing problems involve decisions about installation of

    additional machines or not hiring labor, against the cost of

    such machines or labor. 1010

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    SCOPE OF MANAGERIAL ECONOMICSSCOPE OF MANAGERIAL ECONOMICS

    Pricing Problems

    Fixing prices for the products of the firm are important

    decision-making problems.

    Pricing problems involve decisions regarding variousmethods of pricing to be followed.

    Investment Problems

    It is related of allocating resources over time.

    These normally relate to investing new plants, how much toinvest, expansion programs for the future, sources of funds,

    etc.

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    BRANCHES OF ECONOMICSBRANCHES OF ECONOMICS

    MICROECONOMICS

    Adam Smith is the founder of the field of Microeconomics,the branch of economics which today is considered with the

    behavior of individual entities such as markets, firms and

    households.

    In The Wealth of Nations (1776), Smith considered howindividual prices are set, studied the determination of price

    of land, labor, and capital, and enquired into the strengths

    and weakness of the market mechanism.

    He identified the most important efficiency properties ofmarkets and saw that economic benefit comes from the self-

    interested actions of individuals. These remain important

    issues today also.1212

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    MACROECONOMICS

    Macroeconomics started its journey when John Maynard

    Keynes published his revolutionary General Theory ofEmployment, Interest and Money (1936).

    It studies of the overall performance of the economy.

    At the time, England and USA were still stuck in the Great

    Depression of the 1930s, with over one-quarter of theAmerican labor force unemployed.

    In his new theory, Keynes developed an analysis of whatcauses business cycles, with alternative spells of highunemployment and high inflation.

    Now, macroeconomics examines a wide variety of areas,such as how total investment and consumption aredetermined, how central banks manage money and interestrates, what causes international financial crisis, and why

    some nations grow rapidly while others stagnate.

    BRANCHES OF ECONOMICSBRANCHES OF ECONOMICS

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    BASICBASIC CONCEPTSCONCEPTS Every economy faces three fundamental questions in its

    functioning. These are:

    What goods and services are to produce and in whatquantity?

    How to produce those goods and services? i.e., how thescarce resources are optimally allocated?

    How the goods and services so produced are distributedamong the households?

    The nature of an economic system depends on how theabove questions are resolved and who coordinates the

    decisions of millions of economic agents. At the two extremes are the Market and Command

    Economies.

    In between lies the widely prevalent Mixed Economy,

    which is a mixed of command and Market Economies. 1414

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    Market Economy:

    In a market economy, demand determines what goods andservices are to be produced and how much of each good andservices to be produced.

    Consumers are assumed to act in a rational manner so as tomaximize their economic welfare.

    They spend their income on various products in such a wayso as to maximize their economic welfare.

    Demand as given condition, the firms decide how toproduce the required goods and services in a most efficient

    manner so as to maximize their profits. This results in optimum allocation of scarce resources.

    After that, the firms finalized that how the goods andservices are distributed for resolving the ownership pattern

    of factor inputs and factor prices.

    TYPES OF ECONOMYTYPES OF ECONOMY

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    TYPES OF ECONOMYTYPES OF ECONOMY Command Economy:

    A command mechanism is a method of determining what,

    how, when, where and for whom goods and services are produced, using a hierarchical organization structure inwhich people carry out the instructions given to them.

    The best example of a hierarchical organization structure is

    the military in India. Commanders make decisions requiring actions that are

    passed down a chain of command.

    Soldiers and mariners on the front line take the actions they

    are ordered. The examples of command economies are the former Soviet

    Union and the former communist nations of Eastern Europe.

    A command economy differs from a market economy in

    two important ways. 1616

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    TYPES OF ECONOMYTYPES OF ECONOMY

    Firstly, in a command economy the state owns all the

    productive resources, like land, factories, financial

    institutions, retail stores, and the bulk of the housing stock.

    Government enterprises and government ownership of

    resources are the rule rather than the exception in acommand economy.

    Secondly, in a command economy, authoritarian methods

    are used to determined resource use and prices.

    A centrally planned economy is one in which politically

    appointed committees plan production by setting target

    outputs for factory and enterprise managers are manage the

    economy to achieve political objectives. 1717

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    TYPES OF ECONOMYTYPES OF ECONOMY Mixed Economy: Most of the real world economies are mixed economy.

    It is an economy that follows both the market and commandmechanism.

    In most of the modern countries, governments control manyresources and criteria other than personal gain and business

    profit are used to decide how resources will be employed. Most of modern nations have a government firms as well as private enterprises to provide goods and services for thecountry.

    In such a country, government provides roads, defense,pensions and sometimes education.

    In modern mixed economies, governments intervene themarkets to control prices and correct the shortcomings of asystem in which prices and the pursuit of personal gain

    influence resource use and incomes. 1818

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    BASIC MICROECONOMICSBASIC MICROECONOMICSBASIC CONCEPTS AND PRINCIPLES OF MICROBASIC CONCEPTS AND PRINCIPLES OF MICRO--ECONOMICECONOMIC

    ANALYSISANALYSIS

    Managerial economics deals with firms, more especially

    with the environment in which firms operate, the decisions

    they take and the effects of such decisions on themselvesand their stakeholders like customers, competitors,

    employees and the society in which they operate.

    The key economic concepts and principles that constitutethe broad framework of managerial economics are

    explained in the next slides.

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    BASIC MICROECONOMICSBASIC MICROECONOMICS

    OPPORTUNITY COST

    Economic decision is choosing the best alternative amongavailable alternatives.

    Before choosing best alternative you rank them all based

    on their priority and probable return.

    This choice implies sacrificing the other alternatives.

    The cost of this choice can be evaluated in terms of the

    sacrificed alternatives.

    If the best alternative was not chosen then you could havechosen the second best alternative.

    So, the cost of this particular best choice is the benefit of

    the next best alternative foregone. This is called

    Opportunity Cost. 2121

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    BASIC MICROECONOMICSBASIC MICROECONOMICS

    DISCOUNTING TIME PERSPECTIVE

    Discounting principle refers to time value of money, i.e., the fact

    that the value of money depreciates with time. The core discounting principle is that a rupee in hand today is

    worth more than a rupee received tomorrow.

    One rationale of discounting is uncertainty about tomorrow, i.e.,future. Even if there is no uncertainty, it is necessary to discountfuture rupee to make it equivalent to current day rupee.

    In business situations, most of the decisions relate to outflow andinflow of money and resources that take place at different pointof time.

    Most outflows normally occur in the current period, whereasinflows occur only in future, therefore, in order to take the rightdecision it is necessary to discount future inflows to theirpresent value level. The simple formula for discounting is:

    PVF = 1 / (1+rn), Where PVF = present value of fund, n= period(year, etc.) and r = rate of discount. 2222

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    BASIC MICROECONOMICSBASIC MICROECONOMICS

    RISK AND UNCERTAINTY

    The uncertainty is due to unpredictable changes in thebusiness cycle, structure of the economy and governmentpolicies.

    This means that the management must assume the risk of

    making decisions for their organizations in uncertain andunknown economic conditions in the future.

    Firms may be uncertain about production, market-prices,strategies of rivals, etc.

    Under uncertain situation, the consequences of an actionare not known immediately for certain.

    Economic theory generally assumes that the firm hasperfect knowledge of its costs and demand relationships

    and its environment. 2323

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    DEMAND ANALYSISDEMAND ANALYSIS

    DEMAND

    The amount of good that a consumer is willing to buy and

    able to purchase over a period of time, at a certain price isknown as the quantity demanded of that good.

    The quantity desired to be purchased may be different fromthe quantity of good actually bought by the consumer.

    Quantity demanded is a flow concept, so the relevant timedimension has to be mentioned which will indicate thequantity demanded per unit of time.

    DEMAND FUNCTION

    Demand is a relationship between the price and the quantitydemanded, other things remaining the same.

    If X1 denotes the quantity demanded and P1 its price perunit of the good, then other things remaining constant, the

    demand function is; X1 = f (P1). 2525

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    DEMAND ANALYSISDEMAND ANALYSIS

    Which shows that quantity demanded depends on the price.This means that any change in price will result in acorresponding change in the quantity demanded.

    DETERMINANTS OF DEMAND

    The determinants of demand for a product and the nature ofrelationship between demand and its determinants are veryimportant factors for analyzing and estimating demand forthe product.

    The most important determinants are as follows:

    Price of the product. Price of the related goods Complements and Supplements.

    Level of consumers' income.

    Customers' taste and preference.

    Advertisement of the product. 2626

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    DEMAND ANALYSISDEMAND ANALYSIS

    Consumers' expectations about future price and Supplyposition.

    Demonstration effect and 'Band-Wagon' effect.

    Consumer-credit facility.

    Population of the country (Goods for mass consumption).

    Distribution pattern of the National Income. LAW OF DEMAND

    The law of demand states that other things being constant,price and quantity demanded have an inverse relationship;

    i.e. as price of a product increases quantity demandeddecreases and vice versa.

    This law states that there is an inverse relationship betweenprice and quantity demanded, as price increases, quantity

    demanded will decrease. 2727

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    DEMAND ANALYSISDEMAND ANALYSIS

    The law of demand can be explained in terms of substitutionand income effects resulting from price changes.

    The substitution effect reflects changing opportunity costs.When price of good increases, its opportunity cost in termsof other goods is also increases.

    Consequently, consumers may substitute other goods for thegood that has become more expensive.

    EXCEPTIONS TO THE LAW OF DEMAND

    Though normally law of demand applies to all situations,

    but there are few cases where the law does not hold goods,therefore these are regarded as exceptions to the law.

    These are the goods which are demanded less at low priceand more at high price. Let us discuss some such exceptions

    here. 2828

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    DEMAND ANALYSISDEMAND ANALYSIS

    Hence such goods which display direct price demand

    relationship are called Giffin Goods. These goods are considered inferior by the consumer, but

    they occupy a significant place in the individuals

    consumption basket.

    It so happens that people in this case, with the rise of priceof this good (say rice), are forced to reduce their purchase of

    other expensive goods (say, chicken) and increase the

    purchase of that good (rice) in larger quantity to supplement

    the reduction in luxury food item (chicken).

    These goods categorically are those on which major portion

    of consumers income is spent, hence they are termed as

    inferior. 3030

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    DEMAND ANALYSISDEMAND ANALYSIS

    SNOB APPEAL Opposite to Giffen Goods, there are certain goods which

    have snob value, for which the consumer measures thesatisfaction derived from there commodities not by theirutility value, but by their social status.

    The consumer of this particular commodity wants to show itoff to others, and as a result they buy less of it at lowerprices and more at higher prices.

    Thus in this case, price and quantity move in the samedirection.

    Diamond or antique works of art, latest model of mobile

    phones, sports cars, and designer clothes are example ofsuch goods. Higher is the price of diamond, higher is the snob value

    attached to it and higher is its demand. These goods are sometimes also known as Vevlen Goods

    after the economist Thorstein Vevlen. 3131

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    DEMAND ANALYSISDEMAND ANALYSISSHIFT OF DEMAND V/S EXPANSION OR CONTRACTION OF DEMANDSHIFT OF DEMAND V/S EXPANSION OR CONTRACTION OF DEMAND

    EXPANSION OR CONTRACTION OF DEMAND

    Demand curve shows the relationship between priceof a commodity and demand at that price, ceterisparibus.

    If the price changes, the demand will also changealong the same demand curve.

    Thus movement along the same demand curve isknown as a contraction or expansion in quantitydemanded, which occurs due to rise or fall in priceof the commodity.

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    DEMAND ANALYSISDEMAND ANALYSIS

    EXPANSION OR CONTRACTION OF DEMANDEXPANSION OR CONTRACTION OF DEMAND

    Expansion or Contraction of Demand

    O Quantity

    PriceD

    D

    P1

    P2

    Q1 Q2

    A

    B

    Movement from A to B: Expansion of demand

    Movement from B to A: Contraction of demand

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    DEMAND ANALYSISDEMAND ANALYSIS

    SHIFT OF DEMAND V/S EXPANSION OR CONTRACTION OF DEMANDSHIFT OF DEMAND V/S EXPANSION OR CONTRACTION OF DEMAND

    SHIFT OF DEMAND

    When price of a good remain the same but any one of the

    other determinants changed then we will get a new demand

    curve.

    So, when demand increases without any change in price of

    that good, the demand curve will shift to the right and with a

    reduction in demand, the demand curve will shift to the left.

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    DEMAND ANALYSISDEMAND ANALYSISSHIFT OF DEMANDSHIFT OF DEMAND

    OQuantity

    Price

    D

    DD1

    D1

    D2

    D2

    Right ward shift of demand

    Left ward shift of

    demand

    SHIFT IN DEMAND

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    DEMAND ANALYSISDEMAND ANALYSIS

    Elasticity of Demand

    Law of demand gives us the direction of change in demandif the price of the product changes.

    But this information is not of much practical use since weknow only the direction of change in the demand for a givenchange in the price.

    For decision making, we need the magnitude of this demandand elasticity of demand can gives this changes.

    The elasticity of demand helps to understand the extent towhich the quantity demanded will rise (fall) due to fall (rise)

    in the price of the same good or a related good or due to rise(fall) in the income of the consumer.

    This involves an analysis of demand sensitivity with respectto prices of goods and income which helps the business to

    forecast market trends for the future. 3636

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    DEMAND ANALYSISDEMAND ANALYSIS

    TYPES OF ELASTICITY

    There are many types of elasticity but the main and

    important types are as follows.

    i) Price elasticity of demand

    ii) Income Elasticity of Demand

    iii) The Cross-price Elasticity of demand

    iv) Advertising Elasticity of Demand

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    DEMAND ANALYSISDEMAND ANALYSIS

    PRICE ELASTICITY OF DEMAND (ep)

    ep = percentage change in quantity demanded resulting

    from one percent change in the price of the good, otherthings remaining constant.

    ep = Percentage change in quantity demanded / Percentagechange in price

    Percentage change in quantity demanded = [change inquantity demanded / original quantity demanded] * 100

    Percentage change in price = [change in price / originalprice] *100

    Combining the two, we have, ep = [Q / P] * [P / Q], Where, Q = Infinitesimal change in quantity,

    P = Infinitesimal change in price,

    P = original price and

    Q = original quantity demanded of the good. 3838

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    DEMAND ANALYSISDEMAND ANALYSIS

    SOME IMPORTANT CONCEPTS

    Perfectly elastic demand: A very small amount of change inthe price will result in a change in the quantity demanded to theextent of infinity. Ep = .

    Perfectly inelastic demand: A change in price, however largeit may be, causes no change in quantity demanded. Ep = 0.

    Unit elasticity of demand: When a given change in the pricecauses an equally proportionate change in the quantity demandedthe value of price elasticity of demand id unitary. Ep = 1.

    Relatively elastic demand: Here a change in the price resultsin more than proportionate change in the quantity demanded. Ep> 1.

    Relatively inelastic demand: Here a change in the priceresults in less than proportionate change in the quantitydemanded. Ep < 1.

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    DEMAND ANALYSISDEMAND ANALYSIS

    Perfectly Elastic % P = 0 Ep = .

    Relatively Elastic % Q > % P Ep > 1.

    Unitary Elastic % Q = % P Ep = 1.

    Relatively Elastic % Q < % P Ep < 1.

    Perfectly Inelastic % Q = 0 Ep = 0.

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    DEMAND ANALYSISDEMAND ANALYSIS INCOME ELASTICITY OF DEMAND

    It is defined as the proportionate change in the quantity demanded

    resulting from a proportionate change in income. Ey = [Q / Q] / [Y / Y] = [Q / Y] * [Y / Q]

    It is clear that the sign of the elasticity depends on the sign of thederivative Q / Y as both of the expressions Q and Y are positive,i.e., Q>0 & Y>0.

    The income elasticity is positive for normal goods. A commodity isconsidered to be a 'luxury' if its income elasticity is greater than unity.A commodity is considered to be a 'necessity' if its income elasticity isless than unity.

    The main determinants of income elasticity are:

    The nature of the need that the commodity covers: the percentage ofincome spent on food declines as income increases.

    The initial level of income of a country: for example, a TV set is a'luxury' in an underdeveloped and poor country, while it is a'necessity' in a country with per-capita income.

    The time period: consumption patterns adjust with a time lag to

    changes in income. 4141

    DEMAND ANALYSISDEMAND ANALYSIS

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    DEMAND ANALYSISDEMAND ANALYSIS

    THE CROSS-PRICE ELASTICITY OF DEMAND

    The cross-price elasticity of demand is defined as the proportionate

    change in the quantity demanded of product i resulting from aproportionate change in the price of the product j. Symbolically thecross-price elasticity is:

    Ecij = [Percentage change in the quantity demanded of the ith good /Percentage change in the price of the jth good]

    = [(Qi / Qi)*100] / [(Pj / Pj)*100] = [Qi / Pj] * [Pj / Qi], As price and quantity values cannot be negative terms, the sign of the

    cross price elasticity is determined by the sign of the derivative Qi /Pj.

    The sign of cross price elasticity is negative if i and j are

    complementary goods, and is positive if i and j are substitute goods. The higher the value of the cross-price elasticity the stronger will be

    the degree of substitutability or complementarities of i and j.

    The main determinant of the cross elasticity is the nature of thecommodities relative to their uses. If two commodities can satisfy

    equally well the same need, the cross elasticity is high and vice versa.4242

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    DEMAND ANALYSISDEMAND ANALYSIS

    DEMAND FORECASTING

    There are so many methods for forecasting demand. Here we will

    discuss the main methods. Broadly they are divided into twogroups:

    1. Survey Methods.

    2. Statistical Methods.

    1. Survey Methods.

    Survey methods are generally used where the purpose is to makeshort-run forecast of demand. Under the survey methods there aretwo types of survey: i) Consumer Survey Methods DirectInterviews, and ii) Opinion Poll Methods

    i) Consumer Survey Methods Direct Interviews The customer survey method of demand forecasting involves of

    the potential consumers. It may be in the form of:

    Complete enumeration,

    Sample survey,

    End-use method.4444

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    DEMAND ANALYSISDEMAND ANALYSIS

    a) Complete enumeration method

    By this method, almost all potential users of the product are contacted

    and are asked about their plan of purchasing the product in question. The quantities indicated by the consumers are added together to obtain

    the probable demand for the product.

    The main limitation of this method is that it can be used successfully

    only in case of those products whose consumers are concentrated in acertain region or locality.

    b) Sample survey

    In this method, only a few potential consumers and users selected

    from the relevant market through a sampling method are surveyed.

    Method of survey may be direct interview or mailed questionnaire to

    the sample-consumers.

    This method is generally used to estimate short-term demand frombusiness firm, government department and agencies and also by the

    households who plan their future purchases. 4545

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    DEMAND ANALYSISDEMAND ANALYSIS

    c) End-use method

    This method of demand forecasting has a considerabletheoretical and practical value, especially in forecastingdemand for inputs.

    This method requires building up a schedule of probableaggregate future demand for inputs by consuming industriesand various other sectors.

    This method has two exclusive advantages.

    First, it is possible to work out the future demand for anindustrial product in considerable details by types and size.

    Second, in forecasting demand by this method, it is possibleto trace and pinpoint at any time in future as to where andwhy the actual consumption has deviated from the estimateddemand.

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    DEMAND ANALYSISDEMAND ANALYSIS

    ii) Opinion Poll Methods

    The opinion poll methods aim at collecting opinions of those

    who are suppose to possess knowledge of the market, i.e., salesrepresentatives, professional marketing experts and consultants.This method includes;

    Expert-opinion method.

    Delphi Method. Market studies and experiments.

    a) Expert-opinion method

    The estimates of demand can obtain from different regions areadded up to get the overall probable demand for a product.

    The firms are not having this facility; gather similarinformation about the demand for their products through theprofessional markets experts or consultants, who can, throughtheir experience and expertise, predict the future demand. This

    is called opinion poll method. 4747

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    DEMAND ANALYSISDEMAND ANALYSIS

    b) Delphi Method

    This method of demand forecasting is an extension of the

    simple expert opinion poll method. Under this method, the experts are provided information on

    estimates of forecasts of their experts along with theunderlying assumptions.

    The experts may revise their own estimates in the light offorecasts constitutes the final forecast.

    c) Market studies and experiments

    It is an alternative method of collecting necessary

    information regarding demand is to carry out market studiesand experiments on consumer's behavior under actual,though controlled, market conditions.

    This method is known in common parlance as marketexperiment method.

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    SUPPLY ANALYSISSUPPLY ANALYSIS

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    SUPPLY ANALYSISSUPPLY ANALYSIS SUPPLY FUNCTION

    Supply of a good refers to the various quantities of the good which a

    seller is willing and able to sell at different prices in a given market, ata particular point of time, other things remaining the same.

    Supply is related to scarcity.

    It is only the scarce goods which have a supply price.

    On the other hand, goods which are available freely have no supplyprice, i.e., air is available freely and hence does not have supply price.

    The law of supply states that other things remaining the same, more ofa good are supplied at a higher price and less of it is supplied at a

    lower price.

    The law of supply takes into account only the most important

    determinant of supply, viz., the price of the good.

    So, the supply function is; Sx = f(Px), other things remaining thesame,

    where, Sx = Amount of good X supplied, Px = Price of good X. 5050

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    SUPPLY ANALYSISSUPPLY ANALYSIS

    FACTORS AFFECTING SUPPLY

    The followings are the major factors affecting the supply

    of the good;

    i) Price of the Good.

    ii) Prices of other goods.

    iii) Prices of factors of Production.

    iv) State of Technology.

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    SUPPLY ANALYSISSUPPLY ANALYSIS

    ELASTICITY OF SUPPLY

    Price Elasticity of Supply refers to the percentage change inquantity supplied due to one percentage change in the priceof that good.

    Es = [Percentage change in quantity supplied / Percentagechange in the price]

    = [Qs/Qs] / [P/P] = [Qs/P] * [P/Qs]

    Where,

    Qs = Original quantity supplied,P = Original price,

    Qs = Change in quantity supplied,

    P = Change in price.5252