Economics 160 Votey, Lecture 8 Lecture 16 Professor Votey Decision Theory: Jury Trials, Fair to Whom...
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Transcript of Economics 160 Votey, Lecture 8 Lecture 16 Professor Votey Decision Theory: Jury Trials, Fair to Whom...
![Page 1: Economics 160 Votey, Lecture 8 Lecture 16 Professor Votey Decision Theory: Jury Trials, Fair to Whom ? But First, 1. A Comment about our grading policy.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051516/56649f115503460f94c23ee8/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Economics 160Economics 160
Votey, Lecture 8Votey, Lecture 8
Lecture 16
Professor Votey
Decision Theory: Jury Trials, Fair to Whom ?
But First, But First, 1. A Comment about our grading policy for the course, and 1. A Comment about our grading policy for the course, and 2. Evidence about a much neglected topic: 2. Evidence about a much neglected topic:
RehabilitationRehabilitation
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Midterm Grade DistributionMidterm Grade Distribution
A 117-126A 117-126 A- 107-116A- 107-116 B+ 97-106B+ 97-106 B 87- 96B 87- 96 B- 77- 86B- 77- 86 C+ 67- 76C+ 67- 76 C 57- 66C 57- 66 C- 47- 56C- 47- 56 D+ 37- 46D+ 37- 46 D 27- 36D 27- 36 D- 17- 26D- 17- 26 F 16 -F 16 -
The Great GradeThe Great Grade
Incentive:Incentive:For all those of you whose For all those of you whose grades turned out to be lower grades turned out to be lower than you hoped, you have than you hoped, you have the the ultimate opportunityultimate opportunity to raise to raise your Course Grade. your Course Grade.
Anyone who earns a higher Anyone who earns a higher letter grade on the final will have letter grade on the final will have that as the Course Grade, that as the Course Grade, ignoring the implications of a ignoring the implications of a lower Midterm Grade. If you do lower Midterm Grade. If you do no better, or do worse, on the no better, or do worse, on the final, the average of the two will final, the average of the two will be your Course Grade.be your Course Grade.
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More on the role of Decision Theorythe Economic Paradigm (in part review)
More on the role of Decision Theorythe Economic Paradigm (in part review)
• Who uses it and why?Who uses it and why?• 1. Criminal participants -1. Criminal participants - following basic Bentham / following basic Bentham /
Utilitarian theoryUtilitarian theory• 2. Society in response2. Society in response - - with efforts at crime control with efforts at crime control• 2 sets of actors on opposing sides of the problem2 sets of actors on opposing sides of the problem• Why do rational people commit crime?Why do rational people commit crime?• 1.1. Because it paysBecause it pays - - though the individual may be though the individual may be
making the best of a poor set of optionsmaking the best of a poor set of options• 2. Most criminals are making a choice2. Most criminals are making a choice
- the legitimate alternative appears worse
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Behavior of the individual
Legitimate Job
Crime
CHOICE
Success: Job: $X
Failure:
Success: Take from crime $Y
Unempl: $0
Jail: D days @ $Z loss
On what basis does the individual make a choice?
The Key:
Expected Net Benefits = E(NB) = P(B) . $B - P(C) . $Cneeds to be calculated for each option, i.e.,
E(NB) = [(1 - P(U)).$X + P(U).0] vs. [(1 - P(A)).$Y + P(A).(-$Z)]Simply pick the “Best”
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Behavior of the individual
Legitimate Job
Crime
CHOICE
Success: Job: $X
Failure:
Success: Take from crime $Y
Unempl: $0
Jail: D days @ $Z loss
On what basis does the individual make a choice?
The Key:
Expected Net Benefits = E(NB) = P(B) . $B - P(C) . $C
needs to be calculated for each option, i.e.,
E(NB) = [(1 - P(U)).$X + P(U).0] vs. [(1 - P(A)).$Y + P(A).(-$Z)]
ButBut
![Page 6: Economics 160 Votey, Lecture 8 Lecture 16 Professor Votey Decision Theory: Jury Trials, Fair to Whom ? But First, 1. A Comment about our grading policy.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051516/56649f115503460f94c23ee8/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Legitimate Job
Crime
CHOICE Failure:
Success: Take from crime $Y
Unempl: $0
Jail: D days @ $Z loss
On what basis does the individual make a choice?
The Key:
E(NB) = [(1 -1).$X + P(U).0] vs. [(1 - P(A)).$Y + P(A).(-$Z)]
BUT if P(U) = 1
![Page 7: Economics 160 Votey, Lecture 8 Lecture 16 Professor Votey Decision Theory: Jury Trials, Fair to Whom ? But First, 1. A Comment about our grading policy.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051516/56649f115503460f94c23ee8/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Crime
CHOICE Failure:
Success: Take from crime $Y
Jail: D days @ $Z loss
On what basis does the individual make a choice?
The Key:
E(NB) = [(1 - P(A)).$Y + P(A).(-$Z)]
the only choice is CRIME
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Do individuals really behave like this?Do individuals really behave like this?
• ArticlesArticles• by Krohm,”The Pecuniary Incentives of Property Crime”,by Krohm,”The Pecuniary Incentives of Property Crime”,• and Gunning,”How Profitable is Burglary?”, and Gunning,”How Profitable is Burglary?”, • Syllabus XV, tend to support this sort of analysisSyllabus XV, tend to support this sort of analysis
• We should add at least one more choice for We should add at least one more choice for persons on the threshold of selecting a career:persons on the threshold of selecting a career:
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Do individuals really behave like this?Do individuals really behave like this?
ArticlesArticles by Krohm,”The Pecuniary Incentives of Property Crime”,by Krohm,”The Pecuniary Incentives of Property Crime”, and Gunning,”How Profitable is Burglary?”, Syllabus XV, and Gunning,”How Profitable is Burglary?”, Syllabus XV, tend to support this sort of analysis tend to support this sort of analysis
We should add at least one more choice for persons on the We should add at least one more choice for persons on the threshold of selecting a career:threshold of selecting a career:
Education (Investment in Human Capital)Education (Investment in Human Capital)
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Do individuals really behave like this?Do individuals really behave like this?
ArticlesArticles by Krohm,”The Pecuniary Incentives of Property Crime”,by Krohm,”The Pecuniary Incentives of Property Crime”, and Gunning,”How Profitable is Burglary?”, Syllabus and Gunning,”How Profitable is Burglary?”, Syllabus XV, tend to support this sort of analysisXV, tend to support this sort of analysis
We should add at least one more choice for persons on the We should add at least one more choice for persons on the threshold of selecting a career:threshold of selecting a career:
Education (Investment in Human Capital)Education (Investment in Human Capital)
-but opting for education requires wealth-but opting for education requires wealth
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Do individuals really behave like this?Do individuals really behave like this?
ArticlesArticles by Krohm,”The Pecuniary Incentives of Property Crime”,by Krohm,”The Pecuniary Incentives of Property Crime”, and Gunning,”How Profitable is Burglary?”, Syllabus XV, and Gunning,”How Profitable is Burglary?”, Syllabus XV, tend to support this sort of analysistend to support this sort of analysis
We should add at least one more choice for persons on the We should add at least one more choice for persons on the threshold of selecting a career:threshold of selecting a career:
Education (Investment in Human Capital)Education (Investment in Human Capital)
-but opting for education requires wealth -but opting for education requires wealth or an alternative or an alternative income sourceincome source
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Do individuals really behave like this?Do individuals really behave like this?
ArticlesArticles by Krohm,”The Pecuniary Incentives of Property Crime”,by Krohm,”The Pecuniary Incentives of Property Crime”, and Gunning,”How Profitable is Burglary?”, Syllabus XV, and Gunning,”How Profitable is Burglary?”, Syllabus XV, tend to support this sort of analysistend to support this sort of analysis
We should add at least one more choice for persons on the We should add at least one more choice for persons on the threshold of selecting a career:threshold of selecting a career:
Education (Investment in Human Capital)Education (Investment in Human Capital)
-but opting for education requires wealth or an alternative -but opting for education requires wealth or an alternative
income source income source (or a subsidy)(or a subsidy)
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As Bentham, and others since, have pointed out, choices for society, to prevent crime
- mirror the choices of the potential criminal
As Bentham, and others since, have pointed out, choices for society, to prevent crime
- mirror the choices of the potential criminal
Two basic choices in terms of value of expectationsTwo basic choices in terms of value of expectations
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As Bentham, and others since, have pointed out, choices for society, to prevent crime
- mirror the choices of the potential criminal
As Bentham, and others since, have pointed out, choices for society, to prevent crime
- mirror the choices of the potential criminal
Two basic choices in terms of value of expectationsTwo basic choices in terms of value of expectations
1. Affecting the probabilities1. Affecting the probabilities
![Page 15: Economics 160 Votey, Lecture 8 Lecture 16 Professor Votey Decision Theory: Jury Trials, Fair to Whom ? But First, 1. A Comment about our grading policy.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051516/56649f115503460f94c23ee8/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
As Bentham, and others since, have pointed out, choices for society, to prevent crime
- mirror the choices of the potential criminal
As Bentham, and others since, have pointed out, choices for society, to prevent crime
- mirror the choices of the potential criminal
Two basic choices in terms of value of expectationsTwo basic choices in terms of value of expectations1. Affecting the probabilities1. Affecting the probabilities
2. Manipulating the values of costs and benefits2. Manipulating the values of costs and benefits
![Page 16: Economics 160 Votey, Lecture 8 Lecture 16 Professor Votey Decision Theory: Jury Trials, Fair to Whom ? But First, 1. A Comment about our grading policy.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051516/56649f115503460f94c23ee8/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
As Bentham, and others since, have pointed out, choices for society, to prevent crime
- mirror the choices of the potential criminal
As Bentham, and others since, have pointed out, choices for society, to prevent crime
- mirror the choices of the potential criminal
Two basic choices in terms of value of expectationsTwo basic choices in terms of value of expectations1. Affecting the probabilities1. Affecting the probabilities
2. Manipulating the values of costs and benefits2. Manipulating the values of costs and benefits
But there are really two classes of solutionsBut there are really two classes of solutions
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As Bentham, and others since, have pointed out, choices for society, to prevent crime
- mirror the choices of the potential criminal
As Bentham, and others since, have pointed out, choices for society, to prevent crime
- mirror the choices of the potential criminal
Two basic choices in terms of value of expectationsTwo basic choices in terms of value of expectations1. Affecting the probabilities1. Affecting the probabilities
2. Manipulating the values of costs and benefits2. Manipulating the values of costs and benefits
But there are really two classes of solutionsBut there are really two classes of solutions A. Factors relating to Deterrence and A. Factors relating to Deterrence and
IncapacitationIncapacitation
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Consider the Circular Flow Process: (again)Consider the Circular Flow Process: (again)
VictimCosts
Causal Causal ForcesForces
A
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As Bentham, and others since, have pointed out, choices for society, to prevent crime
- mirror the choices of the potential criminal
As Bentham, and others since, have pointed out, choices for society, to prevent crime
- mirror the choices of the potential criminal
Two basic choices in terms of value of expectationsTwo basic choices in terms of value of expectations1. Affecting the probabilities1. Affecting the probabilities
2. Manipulating the values of costs and benefits2. Manipulating the values of costs and benefits
But there are really two classes of solutionsBut there are really two classes of solutions A. Factors relating to Deterrence and Incapacitation A. Factors relating to Deterrence and Incapacitation
Resources spent to raiseResources spent to raise
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As Bentham, and others since, have pointed out, choices for society, to prevent crime
- mirror the choices of the potential criminal
As Bentham, and others since, have pointed out, choices for society, to prevent crime
- mirror the choices of the potential criminal
Two basic choices in terms of value of expectationsTwo basic choices in terms of value of expectations1. Affecting the probabilities1. Affecting the probabilities
2. Manipulating the values of costs and benefits2. Manipulating the values of costs and benefits
But there are really two classes of solutionsBut there are really two classes of solutions A. Factors relating to Deterrence and Incapacitation A. Factors relating to Deterrence and Incapacitation Resources spent to raise Resources spent to raise
a. P(A)a. P(A)
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As Bentham, and others since, have pointed out, choices for society, to prevent crime
- mirror the choices of the potential criminal
As Bentham, and others since, have pointed out, choices for society, to prevent crime
- mirror the choices of the potential criminal
Two basic choices in terms of value of expectationsTwo basic choices in terms of value of expectations1. Affecting the probabilities1. Affecting the probabilities
2. Manipulating the values of costs and benefits2. Manipulating the values of costs and benefits
But there are really two classes of solutionsBut there are really two classes of solutions A. Factors relating to Deterrence and Incapacitation A. Factors relating to Deterrence and Incapacitation Resources spent to raise Resources spent to raise
a. P(A), a. P(A), P(C|A)P(C|A)
![Page 22: Economics 160 Votey, Lecture 8 Lecture 16 Professor Votey Decision Theory: Jury Trials, Fair to Whom ? But First, 1. A Comment about our grading policy.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051516/56649f115503460f94c23ee8/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
As Bentham, and others since, have pointed out, choices for society, to prevent crime
- mirror the choices of the potential criminal
As Bentham, and others since, have pointed out, choices for society, to prevent crime
- mirror the choices of the potential criminal
Two basic choices in terms of value of expectationsTwo basic choices in terms of value of expectations1. Affecting the probabilities1. Affecting the probabilities
2. Manipulating the values of costs and benefits2. Manipulating the values of costs and benefits But there are really two classes of solutionsBut there are really two classes of solutions
A. Factors relating to Deterrence and Incapacitation A. Factors relating to Deterrence and Incapacitation Resources spent to raise Resources spent to raise
a. P(A), P(C|A), a. P(A), P(C|A), P(Punishment|C)P(Punishment|C)
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As Bentham, and others since, have pointed out, choices for society, to prevent crime
- mirror the choices of the potential criminal
As Bentham, and others since, have pointed out, choices for society, to prevent crime
- mirror the choices of the potential criminal
Two basic choices in terms of value of expectationsTwo basic choices in terms of value of expectations1. Affecting the probabilities1. Affecting the probabilities
2. Manipulating the values of costs and benefits2. Manipulating the values of costs and benefits
But there are really two classes of solutionsBut there are really two classes of solutions A. Factors relating to Deterrence and Incapacitation A. Factors relating to Deterrence and Incapacitation Resources spent to raise Resources spent to raise
a. P(A), P(C|A), P(Punishment|C)a. P(A), P(C|A), P(Punishment|C)
b. Sentences:b. Sentences:
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As Bentham, and others since, have pointed out, choices for society, to prevent crime - mirror the choices of the potential criminal
As Bentham, and others since, have pointed out, choices for society, to prevent crime - mirror the choices of the potential criminal
Two basic choices in terms of value of expectationsTwo basic choices in terms of value of expectations1. Affecting the probabilities1. Affecting the probabilities
2. Manipulating the values of costs and benefits2. Manipulating the values of costs and benefits But there are really two classes of solutionsBut there are really two classes of solutions
A. Factors relating to Deterrence and Incapacitation A. Factors relating to Deterrence and Incapacitation Resources spent to raise Resources spent to raise
a. P(A), P(C|A), P(Punishment|C)a. P(A), P(C|A), P(Punishment|C)
b. Sentences:b. Sentences: Prison/Jail (length)Prison/Jail (length)
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As Bentham, and others since, have pointed out, choices for society, to prevent crime - mirror the choices of the potential criminal
As Bentham, and others since, have pointed out, choices for society, to prevent crime - mirror the choices of the potential criminal
Two basic choices in terms of value of expectationsTwo basic choices in terms of value of expectations1. Affecting the probabilities1. Affecting the probabilities
2. Manipulating the values of costs and benefits2. Manipulating the values of costs and benefits But there are really two classes of solutionsBut there are really two classes of solutions
A. Factors relating to Deterrence and Incapacitation A. Factors relating to Deterrence and Incapacitation Resources spent to raise Resources spent to raise
a. P(A), P(C|A), P(Punishment|C)a. P(A), P(C|A), P(Punishment|C) b. Sentences: Prison/Jail (length) b. Sentences: Prison/Jail (length)
Fines ($)Fines ($)
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As Bentham, and others since, have pointed out, choices for society, to prevent crime - mirror the choices of the potential criminal
As Bentham, and others since, have pointed out, choices for society, to prevent crime - mirror the choices of the potential criminal
Two basic choices in terms of value of expectationsTwo basic choices in terms of value of expectations1. Affecting the probabilities1. Affecting the probabilities
2. Manipulating the values of costs and benefits2. Manipulating the values of costs and benefits
But there are really two classes of solutionsBut there are really two classes of solutions A. Factors relating to Deterrence and Incapacitation A. Factors relating to Deterrence and Incapacitation Resources spent to raise Resources spent to raise
a. P(A), P(C|A), P(Punishment|C)a. P(A), P(C|A), P(Punishment|C) b. Sentences: Prison/Jail (length) b. Sentences: Prison/Jail (length)
Fines ($) Fines ($)
Probation (length)Probation (length)
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But there are really two classes of solutionsBut there are really two classes of solutions A. Factors relating to Deterrence and Incapacitation A. Factors relating to Deterrence and Incapacitation Resources spent to raise Resources spent to raise
a. P(A), P(C|A), P(Punishment|C) a. P(A), P(C|A), P(Punishment|C) b. Sentences: Prison/Jail (length) b. Sentences: Prison/Jail (length)
Fines ($) Fines ($) Probation (length)Probation (length)
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But there are really two classes of solutions A. Factors relating to Deterrence and Incapacitation Resources spent to raise
a. P(A), P(C|A), P(Punishment|C) b. Sentences: Prison/Jail (length)
Fines ($) Probation (length)
B. Factors relating to future opportunities
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But there are really two classes of solutions A. Factors relating to Deterrence and Incapacitation Resources spent to raise
a. P(A), P(C|A), P(Punishment|C) b. Sentences: Prison/Jail (length)
Fines ($) Probation (length)
B. Factors relating to future opportunities Resources spent to
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But there are really two classes of solutions A. Factors relating to Deterrence and Incapacitation Resources spent to raise
a. P(A), P(C|A), P(Punishment|C) b. Sentences: Prison/Jail (length)
Fines ($) Probation (length)
B. Factors relating to future opportunities Resources spent to
a. Affect availability of jobs
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But there are really two classes of solutions A. Factors relating to Deterrence and Incapacitation Resources spent to raise
a. P(A), P(C|A), P(Punishment|C) b. Sentences: Prison/Jail (length)
Fines ($) Probation (length)
B. Factors relating to future opportunities Resources spent to
a. Affect availability of jobs
i. Invest in jobs on aggregate level
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But there are really two classes of solutions A. Factors relating to Deterrence and Incapacitation Resources spent to raise
a. P(A), P(C|A), P(Punishment|C) b. Sentences: Prison/Jail (length)
Fines ($) Probation (length)
B. Factors relating to future opportunities Resources spent to
a. Affect availability of jobs
i. Invest in jobs on aggregate level
ii. Invest in individuals (training/ education) to make them more employable
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But there are really two classes of solutions A. Factors relating to Deterrence and Incapacitation Resources spent to raise
a. P(A), P(C|A), P(Punishment|C) b. Sentences: Prison/Jail (length)
Fines ($) Probation (length)
B. Factors relating to future opportunities Resources spent to
a. Affect availability of jobs
i. Invest in jobs on aggregate level ii. Invest in individuals (training/education)
to make them more employable
b. Affect quality of jobs
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But there are really two classes of solutions A. Factors relating to Deterrence and Incapacitation Resources spent to raise
a. P(A), P(C|A), P(Punishment|C) b. Sentences: Prison/Jail (length)
Fines ($) Probation (length)
B. Factors relating to future opportunities Resources spent to
a. Affect availability of jobs
i. invest in jobs on aggregate level ii. invest in individuals (training/education)
to make them more employable b. Affect quality of jobs
i. Aggregate - health care, unemployment ins.
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But there are really two classes of solutions A. Factors relating to Deterrence and Incapacitation Resources spent to raise
a. P(A), P(C|A), P(Punishment|C) b. Sentences: Prison/Jail (length)
Fines ($) Probation (length)
B. Factors relating to future opportunities Resources spent to
a. Affect availability of jobs
i. invest in jobs on aggregate level ii. invest in individuals (training/education)
to make them more employable b. Affect quality of jobs
i. Aggregate - health care, unemployment ins.
ii. Individual - quality of education
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Consider the Circular Flow Process: (again)Consider the Circular Flow Process: (again)
VictimCosts
Causal Causal ForcesForces
B
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When we consider our circular flow model, there is one aspect of it that tends to be ignoredWhen we consider our circular flow model, there is one aspect of it that tends to be ignored
Rehabilitation, for apparently good reasonRehabilitation, for apparently good reason
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When we consider our circular flow model, there is one aspect of it that tends to be ignoredWhen we consider our circular flow model, there is one aspect of it that tends to be ignored
Rehabilitation, for apparently good reasonRehabilitation, for apparently good reasonThe data show that for California and The data show that for California and
most states - inmates in prisons are most states - inmates in prisons are convicts with sentences for 1 year or convicts with sentences for 1 year or greatergreater
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When we consider our circular flow model, there is one aspect of it that tends to be ignoredWhen we consider our circular flow model, there is one aspect of it that tends to be ignored
Rehabilitation, for apparently good reasonRehabilitation, for apparently good reason The data show that for California and most states - The data show that for California and most states -
inmates in prisons are convicts with sentences for 1 inmates in prisons are convicts with sentences for 1 year or greateryear or greater
These individuals have been found guilty These individuals have been found guilty of serious crimes of serious crimes (except for those in for drug (except for those in for drug possession)possession)
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When we consider our circular flow model, there is one aspect of it that tends to be ignoredWhen we consider our circular flow model, there is one aspect of it that tends to be ignored
Rehabilitation, for apparently good reasonRehabilitation, for apparently good reason The data show that for California and most states - The data show that for California and most states -
inmates in prisons are convicts with sentences for 1 inmates in prisons are convicts with sentences for 1 year or greateryear or greater
These individuals have been found guilty of serious These individuals have been found guilty of serious crimescrimes
Roughly 70% recidivate within 36 Roughly 70% recidivate within 36 months of releasemonths of release
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When we consider our circular flow model, there is one aspect of it that tends to be ignoredWhen we consider our circular flow model, there is one aspect of it that tends to be ignored
Rehabilitation, for apparently good reasonRehabilitation, for apparently good reason The data show that for California and most states - The data show that for California and most states -
inmates in prisons are convicts with sentences for 1 inmates in prisons are convicts with sentences for 1 year or greateryear or greater
These individuals have been found guilty of serious These individuals have been found guilty of serious crimescrimes
Roughly 70% recidivate within 36 months of releaseRoughly 70% recidivate within 36 months of release
Most ultimately return to prisonMost ultimately return to prison
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When we consider our circular flow model, there is one aspect of it that tends to be ignoredWhen we consider our circular flow model, there is one aspect of it that tends to be ignored
Rehabilitation, for apparently good reasonRehabilitation, for apparently good reason The data show that for California and most states - The data show that for California and most states -
inmates in prisons are convicts with sentences for 1 inmates in prisons are convicts with sentences for 1 year or greateryear or greater
These individuals have been found guilty of serious These individuals have been found guilty of serious crimescrimes
Roughly 70% recidivate within 36 months of releaseRoughly 70% recidivate within 36 months of release
Most ultimately return to prison - Most ultimately return to prison - approaching approaching 90% over 5 years90% over 5 years
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When we consider our circular flow model, there is one aspect of it that tends to be ignoredWhen we consider our circular flow model, there is one aspect of it that tends to be ignored
Rehabilitation, for apparently good reasonRehabilitation, for apparently good reason The data show that for California and most states - inmates The data show that for California and most states - inmates
in prisons are convicts with sentences for 1 year or greaterin prisons are convicts with sentences for 1 year or greater These individuals have been found guilty of serious crimesThese individuals have been found guilty of serious crimes Roughly 70% recidivate within 36 months of releaseRoughly 70% recidivate within 36 months of release Most ultimately return to prison - approaching 90% over 5 Most ultimately return to prison - approaching 90% over 5
yearsyears
So why be concerned about spending on So why be concerned about spending on rehabilitation projects?rehabilitation projects?
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So why be concerned about spending on rehabilitation projects? 2 reasonsSo why be concerned about spending on rehabilitation projects? 2 reasons
There are cases in whichThere are cases in which rehabilitationrehabilitation works very well works very well
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So why be concerned about spending on rehabilitation projects? 2 reasonsSo why be concerned about spending on rehabilitation projects? 2 reasons
There are cases in which rehabilitation works There are cases in which rehabilitation works very well very wellPeter Jennings , ABC News 5:30 pm, Peter Jennings , ABC News 5:30 pm,
Tue., February 19, 1997Tue., February 19, 1997
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So why be concerned about spending on rehabilitation projects? 2 reasonsSo why be concerned about spending on rehabilitation projects? 2 reasons
There are cases in which rehabilitation works There are cases in which rehabilitation works very well very well Peter Jennings , ABC News 5:30 pm, Tue., February 19Peter Jennings , ABC News 5:30 pm, Tue., February 19
San Francisco rehabilitation program run San Francisco rehabilitation program run by a privateby a private,,
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So why be concerned about spending on rehabilitation projects? 2 reasonsSo why be concerned about spending on rehabilitation projects? 2 reasons
There are cases in which rehabilitation works There are cases in which rehabilitation works very well very well Peter Jennings , ABC News 5:30 pm, Tue., February 19Peter Jennings , ABC News 5:30 pm, Tue., February 19 San Francisco rehabilitation program run by a private, San Francisco rehabilitation program run by a private,
non-profit foundationnon-profit foundation
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So why be concerned about spending on rehabilitation projects? 2 reasonsSo why be concerned about spending on rehabilitation projects? 2 reasons
There are cases in which rehabilitation works There are cases in which rehabilitation works very well very well Peter Jennings , ABC News 5:30 pm, Tue., February 19Peter Jennings , ABC News 5:30 pm, Tue., February 19 San Francisco rehabilitation program run by a private, San Francisco rehabilitation program run by a private,
non-profit foundation, non-profit foundation, at no cost to cityat no cost to city
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So why be concerned about spending on rehabilitation projects? 2 reasonsSo why be concerned about spending on rehabilitation projects? 2 reasons
There are cases in which rehabilitation works There are cases in which rehabilitation works very well very well Peter Jennings , ABC News 5:30 pm, Tue., February 19Peter Jennings , ABC News 5:30 pm, Tue., February 19 San Francisco rehabilitation program run by a private, San Francisco rehabilitation program run by a private,
non-profit foundation, at no cost to city, non-profit foundation, at no cost to city, operating operating for more than 20 years.for more than 20 years.
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So why be concerned about spending on rehabilitation projects? 2 reasonsSo why be concerned about spending on rehabilitation projects? 2 reasons
There are cases in which rehabilitation works There are cases in which rehabilitation works very well very well Peter Jennings , ABC News 5:30 pm, Tue., February 19Peter Jennings , ABC News 5:30 pm, Tue., February 19 San Francisco rehabilitation program run by a private, San Francisco rehabilitation program run by a private,
non-profit foundation, at no cost to city, operating for non-profit foundation, at no cost to city, operating for more than 20 years.more than 20 years.
More than 23,000 parolees sent to centerMore than 23,000 parolees sent to center
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So why be concerned about spending on rehabilitation projects? 2 reasonsSo why be concerned about spending on rehabilitation projects? 2 reasons
There are cases in which rehabilitation worksThere are cases in which rehabilitation works very well very well Peter Jennings , ABC News 5:30 pm, Tue., February Peter Jennings , ABC News 5:30 pm, Tue., February
1919 San Francisco rehabilitation program run by a private, San Francisco rehabilitation program run by a private,
non-profit foundation, at no cost to city, operating for non-profit foundation, at no cost to city, operating for more than 20 years.more than 20 years.
More than 23,000 parolees sent to centerMore than 23,000 parolees sent to center
mandatory training in 3 job skills, work mandatory training in 3 job skills, work for wagesfor wages
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So why be concerned about spending on rehabilitation projects? 2 reasonsSo why be concerned about spending on rehabilitation projects? 2 reasons
There are cases in which rehabilitation works There are cases in which rehabilitation works very well very well Peter Jennings , ABC News 5:30 pm, Tue., February 19Peter Jennings , ABC News 5:30 pm, Tue., February 19 San Francisco rehabilitation program run by a private, non-San Francisco rehabilitation program run by a private, non-
profit foundation, at no cost to city, operating for more than profit foundation, at no cost to city, operating for more than 20 years.20 years.
More than 23,000 parolees sent to centerMore than 23,000 parolees sent to center mandatory training in 3 job skills, work for wagesmandatory training in 3 job skills, work for wages
All training by former parolees, graduates of All training by former parolees, graduates of programprogram
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So why be concerned about spending on rehabilitation projects? 2 reasonsSo why be concerned about spending on rehabilitation projects? 2 reasons
There are cases in which rehabilitation worksThere are cases in which rehabilitation works very well very well Peter Jennings , ABC News 5:30 pm, Tue., February 19Peter Jennings , ABC News 5:30 pm, Tue., February 19 San Francisco rehabilitation program run by a private, non-San Francisco rehabilitation program run by a private, non-
profit foundation, at no cost to city, operating for more than profit foundation, at no cost to city, operating for more than 20 years.20 years.
More than 23,000 parolees sent to centerMore than 23,000 parolees sent to center mandatory training in 3 job skills, work for wagesmandatory training in 3 job skills, work for wages All training by former parolees, graduates of programAll training by former parolees, graduates of program
profits pay costs of operationprofits pay costs of operation
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So why be concerned about spending on rehabilitation projects? 2 reasonsSo why be concerned about spending on rehabilitation projects? 2 reasons
Some experiments with rehabilitation work well. Some experiments with rehabilitation work well. Case I.Case I.
Peter Jennings , ABC News 5:30 pm, Tue., February 19Peter Jennings , ABC News 5:30 pm, Tue., February 19 San Francisco rehabilitation program run by a private, non-San Francisco rehabilitation program run by a private, non-
profit foundation, at no cost to city, operating for more than profit foundation, at no cost to city, operating for more than 20 years.20 years.
More than 23,000 parolees sent to centerMore than 23,000 parolees sent to center mandatory training in 3 job skills, work for wagesmandatory training in 3 job skills, work for wages All training by former parolees, graduates of programAll training by former parolees, graduates of program profits pay costs of operationprofits pay costs of operation
Recidivism rates were a small fraction of Recidivism rates were a small fraction of the 61% for other parolees of city’s jails the 61% for other parolees of city’s jails
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So why be concerned about spending on rehabilitation projects? 2 reasons (-cont.)So why be concerned about spending on rehabilitation projects? 2 reasons (-cont.)
CaseIICaseII Even rehabilitation programs that yield Even rehabilitation programs that yield
higher recidivism rates may have a payoff higher recidivism rates may have a payoff
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So why be concerned about spending on rehabilitation projects? 2 reasons (-cont.)So why be concerned about spending on rehabilitation projects? 2 reasons (-cont.)
CaseIICaseII Even rehabilitation programs that yield higher Even rehabilitation programs that yield higher
recidivism rates may have a payoffrecidivism rates may have a payoff Revealed by Failure Time ModelsRevealed by Failure Time Models
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So why be concerned about spending on rehabilitation projects? 2 reasons (-cont.)So why be concerned about spending on rehabilitation projects? 2 reasons (-cont.)
Even rehabilitation programs that yield higher Even rehabilitation programs that yield higher recidivism rates may have a payoff recidivism rates may have a payoff Revealed by Failure Time ModelsRevealed by Failure Time Models
can determine if a particular investment can determine if a particular investment leads to longer life leads to longer life
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So why be concerned about spending on rehabilitation projects? 2 reasons (-cont.)So why be concerned about spending on rehabilitation projects? 2 reasons (-cont.)
Even rehabilitation programs that yield higherEven rehabilitation programs that yield higher recidivism rates may have a payoff recidivism rates may have a payoff Revealed by Failure Time ModelsRevealed by Failure Time Models
can determine if a particular investment leads to longer lifecan determine if a particular investment leads to longer life
then B then B // C analysis can reveal the degree of payoff C analysis can reveal the degree of payoff
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So why be concerned about spending on rehabilitation projects? 2 reasons (-cont.)So why be concerned about spending on rehabilitation projects? 2 reasons (-cont.)
Even rehabilitation programs that yield higherEven rehabilitation programs that yield higher recidivism rates may have a payoff recidivism rates may have a payoff Revealed by Failure Time ModelsRevealed by Failure Time Models
can determine if a particular investment leads to longer lifecan determine if a particular investment leads to longer life then B / C analysis can reveal the degree of payoffthen B / C analysis can reveal the degree of payoff
initially used in engineering to consider initially used in engineering to consider product quality, e.g., light bulb life product quality, e.g., light bulb life
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So why be concerned about spending on rehabilitation projects? 2 reasons (-cont.)So why be concerned about spending on rehabilitation projects? 2 reasons (-cont.)
Even rehabilitation programs that yield higherEven rehabilitation programs that yield higher recidivism rates may have a payoff recidivism rates may have a payoff Revealed by Failure Time ModelsRevealed by Failure Time Models
can determine if a particular investment leads to longer lifecan determine if a particular investment leads to longer life then B / C analysis can reveal the degree of payoffthen B / C analysis can reveal the degree of payoff initially used in engineering to consider product quality, e.g., initially used in engineering to consider product quality, e.g.,
light bulb life light bulb life
The case of burglarsThe case of burglars
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So why be concerned about spending on rehabilitation projects? 2 reasons (-cont.)So why be concerned about spending on rehabilitation projects? 2 reasons (-cont.)
Even rehabilitation programs that yield higherEven rehabilitation programs that yield higher recidivism rates may have a payoff recidivism rates may have a payoff Revealed by Failure Time ModelsRevealed by Failure Time Models
can determine if a particular investment leads to longer lifecan determine if a particular investment leads to longer life then B / C analysis can reveal the degree of payoffthen B / C analysis can reveal the degree of payoff initially used in engineering to consider product quality, e.g., initially used in engineering to consider product quality, e.g.,
light bulb life light bulb life
The case of burglarsThe case of burglars
Most are professional, career criminalsMost are professional, career criminals
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So why be concerned about spending on rehabilitation projects? 2 reasons (-cont.)So why be concerned about spending on rehabilitation projects? 2 reasons (-cont.)
Even rehabilitation programs that yield higherEven rehabilitation programs that yield higher recidivism rates may have a payoff recidivism rates may have a payoff Revealed by Failure Time ModelsRevealed by Failure Time Models
can determine if a particular investment leads to longer lifecan determine if a particular investment leads to longer life then B / C analysis can reveal the degree of payoffthen B / C analysis can reveal the degree of payoff initially used in engineering to consider product quality, e.g., initially used in engineering to consider product quality, e.g.,
light bulb lifelight bulb life
The case of burglarsThe case of burglars Most are professional, career criminalsMost are professional, career criminals
In prison, don’t commit burglariesIn prison, don’t commit burglaries
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So why be concerned about spending on rehabilitation projects? 2 reasons (-cont.)So why be concerned about spending on rehabilitation projects? 2 reasons (-cont.)
Even rehabilitation programs that yield higherEven rehabilitation programs that yield higher recidivism rates may have a payoff recidivism rates may have a payoff Revealed by Failure Time ModelsRevealed by Failure Time Models
can determine if a particular investment leads to longer lifecan determine if a particular investment leads to longer life then B / C analysis can reveal the degree of payoffthen B / C analysis can reveal the degree of payoff initially used in engineering to consider product quality, e.g., light initially used in engineering to consider product quality, e.g., light
bulb lifebulb life
The case of burglarsThe case of burglars Most are professional, career criminalsMost are professional, career criminals In prison, don’t commit burglariesIn prison, don’t commit burglaries
On release, even if they attempt to go straight, On release, even if they attempt to go straight, most often find that their best economic most often find that their best economic opportunities are in burglaryopportunities are in burglary
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Does it pay to attempt to rehabilitate burglars?Does it pay to attempt to rehabilitate burglars?
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Does it pay to attempt to rehabilitate burglars?Does it pay to attempt to rehabilitate burglars? Most recidivism studies would argue, No.Most recidivism studies would argue, No.
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Does it pay to attempt to rehabilitate burglars?Does it pay to attempt to rehabilitate burglars? Most recidivism studies would argue, No.Most recidivism studies would argue, No.
Failure time models show that there may be another Failure time models show that there may be another answeranswer
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Does it pay to attempt to rehabilitate burglars?Does it pay to attempt to rehabilitate burglars? Most recidivism studies would argue, No.Most recidivism studies would argue, No. Failure time models show that there may be another answerFailure time models show that there may be another answer
Phillips & Votey study for National Institute of Phillips & Votey study for National Institute of JusticeJustice
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Does it pay to attempt to rehabilitate burglars?Does it pay to attempt to rehabilitate burglars? Most recidivism studies would argue, No.Most recidivism studies would argue, No. Failure time models show that there may be another answerFailure time models show that there may be another answer
Phillips & Votey study for National Institute of JusticePhillips & Votey study for National Institute of Justice Ex-cons released, Boston, Chicago, San DiegoEx-cons released, Boston, Chicago, San Diego
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Does it pay to attempt to rehabilitate burglars?Does it pay to attempt to rehabilitate burglars? Most recidivism studies would argue, No.Most recidivism studies would argue, No. Failure time models show that there may be another answerFailure time models show that there may be another answer
Phillips & Votey study for National Institute of JusticePhillips & Votey study for National Institute of Justice Ex-cons released, Boston, Chicago, San DiegoEx-cons released, Boston, Chicago, San Diego
Program provided education, help in getting a job, Program provided education, help in getting a job, help in keeping a jobhelp in keeping a job
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Does it pay to attempt to rehabilitate burglars?Does it pay to attempt to rehabilitate burglars? Most recidivism studies would argue, No.Most recidivism studies would argue, No. Failure time models show that there may be another answerFailure time models show that there may be another answer
Phillips & Votey study for National Institute of JusticePhillips & Votey study for National Institute of Justice Ex-cons released, Boston, Chicago, San DiegoEx-cons released, Boston, Chicago, San Diego Program provided education, help in getting a job, help in Program provided education, help in getting a job, help in
keeping a jobkeeping a job
Original study found: Ultimate recidivism failures Original study found: Ultimate recidivism failures were not much different from other released felonswere not much different from other released felons
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Does it pay to attempt to rehabilitate burglars?Does it pay to attempt to rehabilitate burglars? Most recidivism studies would argue, No.Most recidivism studies would argue, No. Failure time models show that there may be another answerFailure time models show that there may be another answer
Phillips & Votey study for National Institute of JusticePhillips & Votey study for National Institute of Justice Ex-cons released, Boston, Chicago, San DiegoEx-cons released, Boston, Chicago, San Diego Program provided education, help in getting a job, help in Program provided education, help in getting a job, help in
keeping a jobkeeping a job Original study found: Ultimate recidivism failures were Original study found: Ultimate recidivism failures were
not much different from other felonsnot much different from other felons
Phillips & Votey findingsPhillips & Votey findings
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Does it pay to attempt to rehabilitate burglars?Does it pay to attempt to rehabilitate burglars? Most recidivism studies would argue, No.Most recidivism studies would argue, No. Failure time models show that there may be another answerFailure time models show that there may be another answer
Phillips & Votey study for National Institute of JusticePhillips & Votey study for National Institute of Justice Ex-cons released, Boston, Chicago, San DiegoEx-cons released, Boston, Chicago, San Diego Program provided education, help in getting a job, help in keeping a Program provided education, help in getting a job, help in keeping a
jobjob Original study found: Ultimate recidivism failures were Original study found: Ultimate recidivism failures were
not much different from other felonsnot much different from other felons
Phillips & Votey findingsPhillips & Votey findings Those with help in obtaining a job had significantly Those with help in obtaining a job had significantly
longer timeslonger times to failure to failure
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Does it pay to attempt to rehabilitate burglars?Does it pay to attempt to rehabilitate burglars? Most recidivism studies would argue, No.Most recidivism studies would argue, No. Failure time models show that there may be another answerFailure time models show that there may be another answer
Phillips & Votey study for National Institute of JusticePhillips & Votey study for National Institute of Justice Ex-cons released, Boston, Chicago, San DiegoEx-cons released, Boston, Chicago, San Diego Program provided education, help in getting a job, help in keeping a Program provided education, help in getting a job, help in keeping a
jobjob Original study found: Ultimate recidivism failures wereOriginal study found: Ultimate recidivism failures were
not much different from other felonsnot much different from other felons
Phillips & Votey findingsPhillips & Votey findings Those with help in obtaining a job had significantly longer times to Those with help in obtaining a job had significantly longer times to
failurefailure
Need to examine B / C of programNeed to examine B / C of program
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Conducting a B / C Analysis of a Rehabilitation Program
Conducting a B / C Analysis of a Rehabilitation Program
What is the cost of the program ?What is the cost of the program ?
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Conducting a B / C Analysis of a Rehabilitation Program
Conducting a B / C Analysis of a Rehabilitation Program
That - provides education That - provides education - help in getting a job - help in getting a job - help in keeping a job ? - help in keeping a job ?
All easily calculated accounting costsAll easily calculated accounting costs What are the benefits ?What are the benefits ? The reduction in offenses (OF) for the The reduction in offenses (OF) for the
period that the individual is crime free period that the individual is crime free
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Conducting a B / C Analysis -Conducting a B / C Analysis -
Data required:Data required: the individual’s the individual’s (offense rate/year)(offense rate/year) thethe r r (loss rate or damages per offense)(loss rate or damages per offense)
for offenses not committed, i.e., for offenses not committed, i.e., .. R R Then simply calculate E(NB) = E(B) - E(C)Then simply calculate E(NB) = E(B) - E(C) All three programs, showed a substantial
payoff. Even though most candidates ultimately
recidivated
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Opportunities at the aggregate levelOpportunities at the aggregate level
The Nation has, in the past, spent The Nation has, in the past, spent considerable funds to attempt to create jobsconsiderable funds to attempt to create jobs
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Opportunities at the aggregate levelOpportunities at the aggregate level
The Nation has, in the past, spent considerable The Nation has, in the past, spent considerable funds to attempt to create jobsfunds to attempt to create jobs Benefits from job creation programs for people Benefits from job creation programs for people
who seem unemployable seem to be elusivewho seem unemployable seem to be elusive
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Opportunities at the aggregate levelOpportunities at the aggregate level
The Nation has, in the past, spent considerable The Nation has, in the past, spent considerable funds to attempt to create jobsfunds to attempt to create jobs Benefits from job creation programs for people who Benefits from job creation programs for people who
seem unemployable seem to be elusiveseem unemployable seem to be elusive
Consider the Great Society ProgramsConsider the Great Society Programs
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Opportunities at the aggregate levelOpportunities at the aggregate level
The Nation has, in the past, spent considerable The Nation has, in the past, spent considerable funds to attempt to create jobsfunds to attempt to create jobs Benefits from job creation programs for people who Benefits from job creation programs for people who
seem unemployable seem to be elusiveseem unemployable seem to be elusive Consider the Great Society ProgramsConsider the Great Society Programs
Conceived by President John KennedyConceived by President John Kennedy
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Opportunities at the aggregate levelOpportunities at the aggregate level
The Nation has, in the past, spent considerable The Nation has, in the past, spent considerable funds to attempt to create jobsfunds to attempt to create jobs Benefits from job creation programs for people who Benefits from job creation programs for people who
seem unemployable seem to be elusiveseem unemployable seem to be elusive Consider the Great Society ProgramsConsider the Great Society Programs
Conceived by President John KennedyConceived by President John Kennedy Implemented by Lyndon B. JohnsonImplemented by Lyndon B. Johnson
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Opportunities at the aggregate levelOpportunities at the aggregate level
The Nation has, in the past, spent considerable The Nation has, in the past, spent considerable funds to attempt to create jobsfunds to attempt to create jobs Benefits from job creation programs for people who Benefits from job creation programs for people who
seem unemployable seem to be elusiveseem unemployable seem to be elusive Consider the Great Society ProgramsConsider the Great Society Programs
Conceived by President John KennedyConceived by President John Kennedy Implemented by Linden B. JohnsonImplemented by Linden B. Johnson Based on theory of Arthur Okun, Chair, Based on theory of Arthur Okun, Chair,
Council of Economic Advisors Council of Economic Advisors
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Opportunities at the aggregate levelOpportunities at the aggregate level
The Nation has, in the past, spent considerable funds The Nation has, in the past, spent considerable funds to attempt to create jobsto attempt to create jobs Benefits from job creation programs for people who seem Benefits from job creation programs for people who seem
unemployable seem to be elusiveunemployable seem to be elusive Consider the Great Society ProgramsConsider the Great Society Programs
Conceived by President John KennedyConceived by President John Kennedy Implemented by Lyndon B. JohnsonImplemented by Lyndon B. Johnson Based on theory of Arthur Okun, Chair, Council of Based on theory of Arthur Okun, Chair, Council of
Economic Advisors for Kennedy, Johnson Economic Advisors for Kennedy, Johnson
The notion of Potential GNPThe notion of Potential GNP
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The notion of Potential GNPThe notion of Potential GNP
GNPPotentialActual
TimeReal GNP rises over time because of:
Actual GNP
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The notion of Potential GNPThe notion of Potential GNP
GNPPotentialActual
TimeReal GNP rises over time because of:
Population Growth and growth of the Labor Force
Actual GNP
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The notion of Potential GNPThe notion of Potential GNP
GNPPotentialActual
TimeReal GNP rises over time because of:
Population Growth and growth of the Labor ForcePrivate, Corporate and Government Saving leading to Investment
Actual GNP
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The notion of Potential GNPThe notion of Potential GNP
GNPPotentialActual
TimeReal GNP rises over time because of:
Population Growth and growth of the Labor ForcePrivate, Corporate and Government Saving leading to InvestmentTechnological Change and Innovation
Actual GNP
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The notion of Potential GNPThe notion of Potential GNP
GNPPotentialActual
Time
Actual GNP
Potential GNP
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The notion of Potential GNPThe notion of Potential GNP
GNPPotentialActual
Time
Actual GNP
Potential GNP
Potential GNP is based on the calculation of what the country couldproduce
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The notion of Potential GNPThe notion of Potential GNP
GNPPotentialActual
Time
Actual GNP
Potential GNP
Potential GNP is based on the calculation of what the country couldproduce if all factors of production
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The notion of Potential GNPThe notion of Potential GNP
GNPPotentialActual
Time
Actual GNP
Potential GNP
Potential GNP is based on the calculation of what the country couldproduce if all factors of production (Capital and Labor).
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The notion of Potential GNPThe notion of Potential GNP
GNPPotentialActual
Time
Actual GNP
Potential GNP
Potential GNP is based on the calculation of what the country couldproduce if all factors of production (Capital and Labor) were fully employed.
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The notion of Potential GNPThe notion of Potential GNP
GNPPotentialActual
Time
Actual GNP
Potential GNP
Potential GNP is based on the calculation of what the country couldproduce if all factors of production (Capital and Labor) were fully employed.This depends upon Demand factors as well as supply potential.
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The notion of Potential GNPThe notion of Potential GNP
GNPPotentialActual
Time
Actual GNP
Potential GNP
Social Cost ofUnemployed Resources
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Okun and the Council of Economic Advisors argued, convincinglyOkun and the Council of Economic Advisors argued, convincingly
Measures to increase the employment of Measures to increase the employment of resources would pay off inresources would pay off in
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Okun and the Council of Economic Advisors argued, convincinglyOkun and the Council of Economic Advisors argued, convincingly
Measures to increase the employment of resources Measures to increase the employment of resources would pay off inwould pay off in Higher aggregate and individual levels of livingHigher aggregate and individual levels of living
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Okun and the Council of Economic Advisors argued, convincinglyOkun and the Council of Economic Advisors argued, convincingly
Measures to increase the employment of resources Measures to increase the employment of resources would pay off inwould pay off in Higher aggregate and individual levels of livingHigher aggregate and individual levels of living
Broader based growthBroader based growth
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Okun and the Council of Economic Advisors argued, convincinglyOkun and the Council of Economic Advisors argued, convincingly
Measures to increase the employment of resources Measures to increase the employment of resources would pay off inwould pay off in Higher aggregate and individual levels of livingHigher aggregate and individual levels of living Broader based growthBroader based growth
The problemThe problem
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Okun and the Council of Economic Advisors argued, convincingly
Okun and the Council of Economic Advisors argued, convincingly
Measures to increase the employment of resources Measures to increase the employment of resources would pay off inwould pay off in Higher aggregate and individual levels of livingHigher aggregate and individual levels of living Broader based growthBroader based growth
The problemThe problem Benefits of Head Start, Educational Programs, Benefits of Head Start, Educational Programs,
Job Training difficult to measureJob Training difficult to measure
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Okun and the Council of Economic Advisors argued, convincingly
Okun and the Council of Economic Advisors argued, convincingly
Measures to increase the employment of resources Measures to increase the employment of resources would pay off inwould pay off in Higher aggregate and individual levels of livingHigher aggregate and individual levels of living Broader based growthBroader based growth
The problemThe problem Benefits of Head Start, Educational Programs, Job Training Benefits of Head Start, Educational Programs, Job Training
difficult to measuredifficult to measure
It was easier to find evidence of bureaucratic It was easier to find evidence of bureaucratic inefficiencyinefficiency
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Okun and the Council of Economic Advisors argued, convincingly
Okun and the Council of Economic Advisors argued, convincingly
Measures to increase the employment of resources Measures to increase the employment of resources would pay off inwould pay off in Higher aggregate and individual levels of livingHigher aggregate and individual levels of living Broader based growthBroader based growth
The problemThe problem Benefits of Head Start, Educational Programs, Job Training Benefits of Head Start, Educational Programs, Job Training
difficult to measuredifficult to measure It was easier to find evidence of bureaucratic inefficiencyIt was easier to find evidence of bureaucratic inefficiency
Taxpayers are always unwilling to pay for benefits Taxpayers are always unwilling to pay for benefits that go to someone elsethat go to someone else
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Okun and the Council of Economic Advisors argued, convincingly
Okun and the Council of Economic Advisors argued, convincingly
Higher aggregate and individual levels of livingHigher aggregate and individual levels of living Broader based growthBroader based growth
The problemThe problem Benefits of Head Start, Educational Programs, Job Training Benefits of Head Start, Educational Programs, Job Training
difficult to measuredifficult to measure It was easier to find evidence of bureaucratic inefficiencyIt was easier to find evidence of bureaucratic inefficiency Taxpayers are always unwilling to pay for benefits that go to Taxpayers are always unwilling to pay for benefits that go to
someone elsesomeone else
More recent studies have tended to find support More recent studies have tended to find support for many Great Society programsfor many Great Society programs
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Okun and the Council of Economic Advisors argued, convincinglyOkun and the Council of Economic Advisors argued, convincingly
Higher aggregate and individual levels of livingHigher aggregate and individual levels of living Broader based growthBroader based growth
The problemThe problem Benefits of Head Start, Educational Programs, Job Training Benefits of Head Start, Educational Programs, Job Training
difficult to measuredifficult to measure It was easier to find evidence of bureaucratic inefficiencyIt was easier to find evidence of bureaucratic inefficiency Taxpayers are always unwilling to pay for benefits that go to Taxpayers are always unwilling to pay for benefits that go to
someone elsesomeone else More recent studies have tended to find support for many More recent studies have tended to find support for many
Great Society programsGreat Society programs But legislators, typically, are more interested in But legislators, typically, are more interested in
opinion polls than fact findingopinion polls than fact finding
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Okun and the Council of Economic Advisors argued, convincinglyOkun and the Council of Economic Advisors argued, convincingly
The problemThe problem Benefits of Head Start, Educational Programs, Job Training Benefits of Head Start, Educational Programs, Job Training
difficult to measuredifficult to measure It was easier to find evidence of bureaucratic inefficiencyIt was easier to find evidence of bureaucratic inefficiency Taxpayers are always unwilling to pay for benefits that go to Taxpayers are always unwilling to pay for benefits that go to
someone elsesomeone else More recent studies have tended to find support for many More recent studies have tended to find support for many
Great Society programsGreat Society programs But Congressmen, typically, are more interested in opinion But Congressmen, typically, are more interested in opinion
polls than fact findingpolls than fact finding
There is a perspective that would be worthy of There is a perspective that would be worthy of further considerationfurther consideration
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There is a perspective that would be worthy of further considerationThere is a perspective that would be worthy of further consideration
Recall the NIJ video in which it was argued that the Recall the NIJ video in which it was argued that the business cycle and general unemployment levels had business cycle and general unemployment levels had very little impact on crime levels.very little impact on crime levels.
As mentioned earlier, our own studies tend to suggest As mentioned earlier, our own studies tend to suggest that we shouldn’t be too quick to accept that position.that we shouldn’t be too quick to accept that position.
The ’90’s decline in the crime rates suggests that The ’90’s decline in the crime rates suggests that employment levels have a fair amount to do with crime employment levels have a fair amount to do with crime levelslevels
If we focus on those persons at the threshold of making a If we focus on those persons at the threshold of making a career decision, we would have to argue even more career decision, we would have to argue even more strongly for programs to help make individuals more strongly for programs to help make individuals more employable.employable.
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If one were to calculate, as a social cost
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If one were to calculate, as a social cost, the
present value of all the damages that a career
criminal
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If one were to calculate, as a social cost, the
present value of all the damages that a career
criminal, in his lifetime
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If one were to calculate, as a social cost, the
present value of all the damages that a career
criminal, in his lifetime, will impose on society
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If one were to calculate, as a social cost, the
present value of all the damages that a career
criminal, in his lifetime, will impose on society, as
a consequence of lack of economic opportunity at
a critical moment in his life
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If one were to calculate, as a social cost, the
present value of all the damages that a career
criminal, in his lifetime, will impose on society, as
a consequence of lack of economic opportunity at
a critical moment in his life, one would have to
conclude that
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If one were to calculate, as a social cost, the
present value of all the damages that a career
criminal, in his lifetime, will impose on society, as
a consequence of lack of economic opportunity at
a critical moment in his life, one would have to
conclude that the costs of failure to more closely
approach Potential GNP
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If one were to calculate, as a social cost, the
present value of all the damages that a career
criminal, in his lifetime, will impose on society, as
a consequence of lack of economic opportunity at
a critical moment in his life, one would have to
conclude that the costs of failure to more closely
approach Potential GNP are likely to be very great
indeed.
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Consider the cost to society of the typical burglar of Krohm’s analysis.
Who commits a burglary a week over his career. Who spends a substantial proportion of life in jail or prison Costing the taxpayers in California roughly $50,000 per year To say nothing of the added costs for law enforcement, prosecution, and adjudication.
If we add in the costs of criminals who begin, modestly, as burglars, but graduate to robbery and sometimes assault and murder, the costs get even higher.
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Consider what the alternative benefits might have
been
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Consider what the alternative benefits might have
been, if we could have found a way to make an
investment in that same individual's human
capital
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Consider what the alternative benefits might have
been, if we could have found a way to make an
investment in that same individual's human
capital that would have made him a constructive
member of society
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Consider what the alternative benefits might have
been, if we could have found a way to make an
investment in that same individual's human
capital that would have made him a constructive
member of society, producing a contribution to
GNP
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Consider what the alternative benefits might have
been, if we could have found a way to make an
investment in that same individual's human
capital that would have made him a constructive
member of society, producing a contribution to
GNP, paying taxes
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Consider what the alternative benefits might have
been, if we could have found a way to make an
investment in that same individual's human
capital that would have made him a constructive
member of society, producing a contribution to
GNP, paying taxes and contributing to economic
growth.
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This is a hard argument to sell, because it depends upon speculation about the future, and there are many uncertainties.
This is a hard argument to sell, because it depends upon speculation about the future, and there are many uncertainties.
But this is how all investment decisions are madeBut this is how all investment decisions are made
Failing to have made such a decision in the past is Failing to have made such a decision in the past is
having a devastating impact on higher educationhaving a devastating impact on higher education
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This is a hard argument to sell, because it depends upon speculation about the future, and there are many uncertainties.
This is a hard argument to sell, because it depends upon speculation about the future, and there are many uncertainties.
But this is how all investment decisions are madeBut this is how all investment decisions are made
Failing to have made such a decision in the past is Failing to have made such a decision in the past is
having a devastating impact on higher educationhaving a devastating impact on higher education
and on investments in healthand on investments in health
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This is a hard argument to sell, because it depends upon speculation about the future, and there are many uncertainties.
This is a hard argument to sell, because it depends upon speculation about the future, and there are many uncertainties.
But this is how all investment decisions are madeBut this is how all investment decisions are made
Failing to have made such a decision in the past is Failing to have made such a decision in the past is
having a devastating impact on higher education, having a devastating impact on higher education,
on investments in healthon investments in health and on the general quality and on the general quality
of lifeof life
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This is a hard argument to sell, because it depends upon speculation about the future, and there are many uncertainties.
This is a hard argument to sell, because it depends upon speculation about the future, and there are many uncertainties.
But this is how all investment decisions are madeBut this is how all investment decisions are made
Failing to have made such a decision in the past is Failing to have made such a decision in the past is
having a devastating impact on higher education, having a devastating impact on higher education,
on investments in health and on the general quality on investments in health and on the general quality
of lifeof life in Californiain California
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This is a hard argument to sell, because it depends upon speculation about the future, and there are many uncertainties.
This is a hard argument to sell, because it depends upon speculation about the future, and there are many uncertainties.
But this is how all investment decisions are madeBut this is how all investment decisions are made
Failing to have made such a decision in the past is Failing to have made such a decision in the past is
having a devastating impact on higher education, having a devastating impact on higher education,
on investments in health and on the general quality on investments in health and on the general quality
of life in Californiaof life in California and the Nationand the Nation
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Today there is a strong aversion to having government take a role in creating economic opportunities.
Today there is a strong aversion to having government take a role in creating economic opportunities.
There is much anecdotal evidence of its valueThere is much anecdotal evidence of its value Small business man in Northern MichiganSmall business man in Northern Michigan In trouble, age 15, Flint MichiganIn trouble, age 15, Flint Michigan Persuaded to join FDR’s CCCPersuaded to join FDR’s CCC Put to work on conservation projects, paid Put to work on conservation projects, paid
a modest wage a modest wage Was convinced headed for a life of crime before Was convinced headed for a life of crime before
that opportunity that opportunity Gibraltar Road, into the Coast Range from Santa Barbara, was Gibraltar Road, into the Coast Range from Santa Barbara, was
built in the 1930’s as a WPA projectbuilt in the 1930’s as a WPA project
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To reiterate Arthur Okun’s point about Potential GNPTo reiterate Arthur Okun’s point about Potential GNP
If more people are employedIf more people are employed Costs of growth and governmentCosts of growth and government Are spread over greater numbersAre spread over greater numbers
There is not only a greater wage billThere is not only a greater wage bill There is also a broader tax baseThere is also a broader tax base Those previously a burden are made to beThose previously a burden are made to be
contributing members of society contributing members of society
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Careful decision theory analysis
is implied for all such potential
investments in people
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So far, we have talked about decision theory as it applies to choice to commit crime - or strategies to prevent it. It can apply to other CJS decisions.
So far, we have talked about decision theory as it applies to choice to commit crime - or strategies to prevent it. It can apply to other CJS decisions.
• Establishing Standards for JusticeEstablishing Standards for Justice
• The Criminal Justice SystemThe Criminal Justice System
Police Prosecutor Courts
CorrectionsDismissal
GuiltyNot Guilty
What determines the standards for Guilt, Innocence?
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Since the O. J. Simpson trials, the standards for the determination of guilt and innocence have been subjected to considerable debate.
Since the O. J. Simpson trials, the standards for the determination of guilt and innocence have been subjected to considerable debate.
Today will describe a personal experience closer to Today will describe a personal experience closer to home that reflects some of our concerns and how our home that reflects some of our concerns and how our system deals with themsystem deals with them
Tuesday Feb. 22 - Tue, Mar. 1, 1983, served as a juror Tuesday Feb. 22 - Tue, Mar. 1, 1983, served as a juror on a criminal case in S. B. County Superior Court.on a criminal case in S. B. County Superior Court.
U. S. Constitution, Amendment VI,“Trial by Jury”U. S. Constitution, Amendment VI,“Trial by Jury”guarantees each of us a “trial by an impartial jury of guarantees each of us a “trial by an impartial jury of one’s peers”one’s peers”
A costly process for the State - and for the jurorsA costly process for the State - and for the jurors 1983 juror’s pay: $9/day + free parking if get there early1983 juror’s pay: $9/day + free parking if get there early Prof. Phillips had to give my lectures in Econ 160Prof. Phillips had to give my lectures in Econ 160
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Jury Selection
1. Candidates, randomly selected from voter registration lists, notified must serve. For a reasonable excuse, one can be temporarily excused, e.g., too pregnant to serve, caring for a young baby. It is a citizens duty to serve, regarded by law as serious a duty as serving in the military in wartime.2. Jury panel seated in the courtroom. Size based on nature of trial (100 for Grove murder case) Initially, 12 + 2 alternates selected to sit in jury box .3. Each, in turn, questioned to determine impartiality Judge can “release for cause”. Atty for Defense has limited number of preemptory challenges. Prosecutor has similar privilege
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Jury Selection (-cont.)
Judge will “dismiss for cause”Any potential juror linked to law enforcement, I.e., a friend of a police officer or of a D.A.One who has strong views on guilt or punishmentA person with prior knowledge of the case
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The Case:(announced at the beginning of the proceedings)The Case:(announced at the beginning of the proceedings)
Department 5, Santa Barbara Superior CourtDepartment 5, Santa Barbara Superior Court Judge: Patrick McMahon, presidingJudge: Patrick McMahon, presiding Charges: Burglary (2 counts), Attempted RapeCharges: Burglary (2 counts), Attempted Rape Location of Crime: 6565 Sabado Tarde, Isla Location of Crime: 6565 Sabado Tarde, Isla
VistaVista Time: 6:00am, March 2, 1981Time: 6:00am, March 2, 1981 Expected time of trial: 8 daysExpected time of trial: 8 days
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Jury SelectionMy expectation as a potential juror:Jury SelectionMy expectation as a potential juror:
To be “released for cause” as in earlier caseTo be “released for cause” as in earlier case Because of research interests, Because of research interests, Past interaction with persons in local law enforcement Past interaction with persons in local law enforcement
Instead was asked if I thought that my knowledgeInstead was asked if I thought that my knowledgewould bias my judgment of guilt or innocencewould bias my judgment of guilt or innocence
Of course, answered, No.Of course, answered, No. Defense attorney concerned with eliminatingDefense attorney concerned with eliminating
young women, older women with daughters,young women, older women with daughters, any juror who had a friend -or- relative who was aany juror who had a friend -or- relative who was a victim of a sex crime victim of a sex crime..
For exampleFor example
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Jury Selection: My expectation as a potential juror:
To be “released for cause” as in earlier case,To be “released for cause” as in earlier case, because of research interests and past interaction because of research interests and past interaction with persons in local law enforcement. with persons in local law enforcement. Instead was asked if I thought that my knowledgeInstead was asked if I thought that my knowledge would bias my judgment of guilt or innocence. would bias my judgment of guilt or innocence. Of course, answered, No.Of course, answered, No. Defense attorney concerned with eliminating youngDefense attorney concerned with eliminating young women, older women with daughters, any juror who women, older women with daughters, any juror who had a friend -or- relative who was a victim of a had a friend -or- relative who was a victim of a sex crime. sex crime. A strong law and order type was invariably dismissed.A strong law and order type was invariably dismissed.
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The process of a jury trial seems stacked in favor of the defendant -
Is it because we are soft on crime?
The process of a jury trial seems stacked in favor of the defendant -
Is it because we are soft on crime? No.No. Standard hypothesis testing procedure is Standard hypothesis testing procedure is
to bias a test to bias a test against the hypothesisagainst the hypothesis one is one is attempting to prove - to avoid costly mistakes attempting to prove - to avoid costly mistakes
Consistent with that approach, the trial starts with a Consistent with that approach, the trial starts with a presumption of innocencepresumption of innocence.. The defense is not required to prove it. The defense is not required to prove it.
Rather, the prosecution is required to prove Rather, the prosecution is required to prove “Guilt, “Guilt, beyond a reasonable doubt” beyond a reasonable doubt”
Proof of innocence may still be a good defense ployProof of innocence may still be a good defense ploy
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•The trial
Ground Rules from initial statement by Judge: 1. No talking about the case with other jurors, or with anyone outside the Courtroom 2. No experiments, detective work or personal
investigations to be conducted by jurors on ownHe gave us an example of a mistrial that had occurred
Previously –costly to the state
Prosecutor, Patrick McKinley, begins with description 1. of the crime and 2. the case against the defendant
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The Scene of the crime:
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The Scene of the crime:
6565 Sabado Tarde
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The Scene of the crime:
6565 Sabado Tarde
DECK - 2 LEVELS: 2nd, 3rd
WALK
DRIVE- WAY
FENCE
DECK
BATH
X
ENTER FROM2ND FLOORDECK
MGR 1ST FLOOR
#13 2ND
#18 3RD
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Actors:
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Actors: Defendant:
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Actors: Defendant: introduced by the Prosecutor: med. ht./ build,
kinky, dark blonde hair, distinctive, deep set eyes
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Actors: Defendant: introduced by the Prosecutor: med. ht./ build,
kinky, dark blonde hair, distinctive, deep set eyes DENIES GUILT (learned later, prior record)
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Actors: Defendant: introduced by the Prosecutor: med. ht./ build,
kinky, dark blonde hair, distinctive, deep set eyes DENIES GUILT (learned later, prior record) Apt. Manager:
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Actors: Defendant: introduced by the Prosecutor: med. ht./ build,
kinky, dark blonde hair, distinctive, deep set eyes DENIES GUILT (learned later, prior record) Apt. Manager: elderly (60’s), heavy set
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Actors: Defendant: introduced by the Prosecutor: med. ht./ build,
kinky, dark blonde hair, distinctive, deep set eyes DENIES GUILT (learned later, prior record) Apt. Manager: elderly (60’s), heavy set Alleged Victim:
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Actors: Defendant: introduced by the Prosecutor: med. ht./ build,
kinky, dark blonde hair, distinctive, deep set eyes DENIES GUILT (learned later, prior record) Apt. Manager: elderly (60’s), heavy set Alleged Victim: previously had identified Defendant, did so at trial.
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Actors: Defendant: introduced by the Prosecutor: med. ht./ build,
kinky, dark blonde hair, distinctive, deep set eyes DENIES GUILT (learned later, prior record) Apt. Manager: elderly (60’s), heavy set Alleged Victim: previously had identified Defendant, did so at trial. Roommates (3)
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Actors: Defendant: introduced by the Prosecutor: med. ht./ build,
kinky, dark blonde hair, distinctive, deep set eyes DENIES GUILT (learned later, prior record) Apt. Manager: elderly (60’s), heavy set Alleged Victim: previously had identified Defendant, did so at trial. Roommates (3): called police, couldn’t identify assailant
Said was light enough to do so. All had something stolen.
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Actors: Defendant: introduced by the Prosecutor: med. ht./ build,
kinky, dark blonde hair, distinctive, deep set eyes DENIES GUILT (learned later, prior record) Apt. Manager: elderly (60’s), heavy set Alleged Victim: previously had identified Defendant, did so at trial. Roommates (3): called police, couldn’t identify assailant
Said was light enough to do so. All had something stolen.
Other Apt. Residents:
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Actors: Defendant: introduced by the Prosecutor: med. ht./ build,
kinky, dark blonde hair, distinctive, deep set eyes DENIES GUILT (learned later, prior record) Apt. Manager: elderly (60’s), heavy set Alleged Victim: previously had identified Defendant, did so at trial. Roommates (3): called police, couldn’t identify assailant
Said was light enough to do so. All had something stolen.
Other Apt. Residents:1. Brother of Defendant
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Actors: Defendant: introduced by the Prosecutor: med. ht./ build,
kinky, dark blonde hair, distinctive, deep set eyes DENIES GUILT (learned later, prior record) Apt. Manager: elderly (60’s), heavy set Alleged Victim: previously had identified Defendant, did so at trial. Roommates (3): called police, couldn’t identify assailant
Said was light enough to do so. All had something stolen.
Other Apt. Residents:1. Brother of Defendant, Apt. 13: heard, saw nothing
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Actors: Defendant: introduced by the Prosecutor: med. ht./ build,
kinky, dark blonde hair, distinctive, deep set eyes DENIES GUILT (learned later, prior record) Apt. Manager: elderly (60’s), heavy set Alleged Victim: previously had identified Defendant, did so at trial. Roommates (3): called police, couldn’t identify assailant
Said was light enough to do so. All had something stolen.
Other Apt. Residents:1. Brother of Defendant, Apt. 13: heard, saw nothing2. Brother’s Roommate:
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Actors: Defendant: introduced by the Prosecutor: med. ht./ build,
kinky, dark blonde hair, distinctive, deep set eyes DENIES GUILT (learned later, prior record) Apt. Manager: elderly (60’s), heavy set Alleged Victim: previously had identified Defendant, did so at trial. Roommates (3): called police, couldn’t identify assailant
Said was light enough to do so. All had something stolen.
Other Apt. Residents:1. Brother of Defendant, Apt. 13: heard, saw nothing2. Brother’s Roommate: heard screams, door of apt.
open soon after
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Actors: Defendant: introduced by the Prosecutor: med. ht./ build,
kinky, dark blonde hair, distinctive, deep set eyes DENIES GUILT (learned later, prior record) Apt. Manager: elderly (60’s), heavy set Alleged Victim: previously had identified Defendant, did so at trial. Roommates (3): called police, couldn’t identify assailant
Said was light enough to do so. All had something stolen.
Other Apt. Residents:1. Brother of Defendant, Apt. 13: heard, saw nothing2. Brother’s Roommate: heard screams, door of apt.
open soon after3. Residents,
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Actors: Defendant: introduced by the Prosecutor: med. ht./ build,
kinky, dark blonde hair, distinctive, deep set eyes DENIES GUILT (learned later, prior record) Apt. Manager: elderly (60’s), heavy set Alleged Victim: previously had identified Defendant, did so at trial. Roommates (3): called police, couldn’t identify assailant
Said was light enough to do so. All had something stolen.
Other Apt. Residents:1. Brother of Defendant, Apt. 13: heard, saw nothing2. Brother’s Roommate: heard screams, door of apt.
open soon after3. Residents, Apt.18: heard, saw nothing, door had
been locked entire time
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Actors: (-cont.)
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Actors: (-cont.) Sheriff’s Deputy:
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Actors: (-cont.) Sheriff’s Deputy: 1st to scene ~ 6 min., saw footprints on
steps in dew.
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The Scene of the crime:
6565 Sabado Tarde
DECK - 2 LEVELS: 2nd, 3rd
WALK
DRIVE- WAY
FENCE
DECK on 2nd and 3rd levels
BATH
X
ENTER FROM2ND FLOORDECK
MGR 1ST FLOOR
#13 2ND
#18 3RD
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Actors: (-cont.) Sheriff’s Deputy: 1st to scene ~ 6 min., saw footprints on
steps in dew. Earlier had given erroneous report of where.
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Actors: (-cont.) Sheriff’s Deputy: 1st to scene ~ 6 min., saw footprints on
steps in dew. Earlier had given erroneous report of where. Said to top floor in back (would have
been to #18), actually to 2nd floor, hence would have been to #13.
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Actors: (-cont.) Sheriff’s Deputy: 1st to scene ~ 6 min., saw footprints on
steps in dew. Earlier had given erroneous report of where. Said to top floor in back (would have been to #18), actually to 2nd floor, hence would have been to #13. He had subsequently beenreassigned from patrol to courtroom duty.
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Actors: (-cont.) Sheriff’s Deputy: 1st to scene ~ 6 min., saw footprints on
steps in dew. Earlier had given erroneous report of where. Said to top floor in back (would have been to #18), actually to 2nd floor, hence would have been to #13. He had subsequently beenreassigned from patrol to courtroom duty.
Lt. Carter: Sheriff’s Detective,
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Actors: (-cont.) Sheriff’s Deputy: 1st to scene ~ 6 min., saw footprints on
steps in dew. Earlier had given erroneous report of where. Said to top floor in back (would have been to #18), actually to 2nd floor, hence would have been to #13. He had subsequently beenreassigned from patrol to courtroom duty.
Lt. Carter: Sheriff’s Detective, impressive, professional, couldenvision in trench coat, out doing job.
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Actors: (-cont.) Sheriff’s Deputy: 1st to scene ~ 6 min., saw footprints on
steps in dew. Earlier had given erroneous report of where. Said to top floor in back (would have been to #18), actually to 2nd floor, hence would have been to #13. He had subsequently beenreassigned from patrol to courtroom duty.
Lt. Carter: Sheriff’s Detective, impressive, professional, couldenvision in trench coat, out doing job. Asked allthe right questions.
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Actors: (-cont.) Sheriff’s Deputy: 1st to scene ~ 6 min., saw footprints on
steps in dew. Earlier had given erroneous report of where. Said to top floor in back (would have been to #18), actually to 2nd floor, hence would have been to #13. He had subsequently beenreassigned from patrol to courtroom duty.
Lt. Carter: Sheriff’s Detective, impressive, professional, couldenvision in trench coat, out doing job. Asked allthe right questions. Tracked suspect to San Diegoand made arrest.
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Actors: (-cont.) Sheriff’s Deputy: 1st to scene ~ 6 min., saw footprints on
steps in dew. Earlier had given erroneous report of where. Said to top floor in back (would have been to #18), actually to 2nd floor, hence would have been to #13. He had subsequently beenreassigned from patrol to courtroom duty.
Lt. Carter: Sheriff’s Detective, impressive, professional, couldenvision in trench coat, out doing job. Asked allthe right questions. Tracked suspect to San Diegoand made arrest.
Defendant:
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Actors: (-cont.) Sheriff’s Deputy: 1st to scene ~ 6 min., saw footprints on
steps in dew. Earlier had given erroneous report of where. Said to top floor in back (would have been to #18), actually to 2nd floor, hence would have been to #13. He had subsequently beenreassigned from patrol to courtroom duty.
Lt. Carter: Sheriff’s Detective, impressive, professional, couldenvision in trench coat, out doing job. Asked allthe right questions. Tracked suspect to San Diegoand made arrest.
Defendant: stated innocence.
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Actors: (-cont.) Sheriff’s Deputy: 1st to scene ~ 6 min., saw footprints on
steps in dew. Earlier had given erroneous report of where. Said to top floor in back (would have been to #18), actually to 2nd floor, hence would have been to #13. He had subsequently beenreassigned from patrol to courtroom duty.
Lt.. Carter: Sheriff’s Detective, impressive, professional, could envision in trench coat, out doing job. Asked all the right questions. Tracked suspect to San Diego and made the arrest. Defendant: stated innocence. Said that on night in question
drank a lot of beer (2 6-packs), alone, locked out of brother’s apt.
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Actors: (-cont.) Sheriff’s Deputy: 1st to scene ~ 6 min., saw footprints on
steps in dew. Earlier had given erroneous report of where. Said to top floor in back (would have been to #18), actually to 2nd floor, hence would have been to #13. He had subsequently beenreassigned from patrol to courtroom duty.
Lt.. Carter: Sheriff’s Detective, impressive, professional, could
envision in trench coat, out doing job. Asked allthe right questions. Tracked suspect to San Diegoand made arrest.
Defendant: stated innocence. Said that on night in questiondrank a lot of beer (2 6-packs), alone, locked out of brother’s apt.
Defense Attorney:
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Actors: (-cont.) Sheriff’s Deputy: 1st to scene ~ 6 min., saw footprints on
steps in dew. Earlier had given erroneous report of where. Said to top floor in back (would have been to #18), actually to 2nd floor, hence would have been to #13. He had subsequently beenreassigned from patrol to courtroom duty.
Lt.. Carter: Sheriff’s Detective, impressive, professional, could
envision in trench coat, out doing job. Asked allthe right questions. Tracked suspect to San Diegoand made arrest.
Defendant: stated innocence. Said that on night in questiondrank a lot of beer (2 6-packs), alone, locked out of brother’s apt.
Defense Attorney: Steve Balash
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Actors: (-cont.) Sheriff’s Deputy: 1st to scene ~ 6 min., saw footprints on
steps in dew. Earlier had given erroneous report of where. Said to top floor in back (would have been to #18), actually to 2nd floor, hence would have been to #13. He had subsequently beenreassigned from patrol to courtroom duty.
Lt.. Carter: Sheriff’s Detective, impressive, professional, could
envision in trench coat, out doing job. Asked allthe right questions. Tracked suspect to San Diegoand made arrest.
Defendant: stated innocence. Said that on night in questiondrank a lot of beer (2 6-packs), alone, locked out of brother’s apt.
Defense Attorney: Steve Balash, noted local criminal defense lawyer.
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Actors: (-cont.) Sheriff’s Deputy: 1st to scene ~ 6 min., saw footprints on
steps in dew. Earlier had given erroneous report of where. Said to top floor in back (would have been to #18), actually to 2nd floor, hence would have been to #13. He had subsequently beenreassigned from patrol to courtroom duty.
Lt.. Carter: Sheriff’s Detective, impressive, professional, could envision in trench coat, out doing job. Asked all the right questions. Tracked suspect to San Diego and made arrest. Defendant: stated innocence. Said that on night in question
drank a lot of beer (2 6-packs), alone, locked out of brother’s apt.
Defense Attorney: Steve Balash, noted local criminal defense lawyer. Questions each witness to fan
concerns of “reasonable doubt”.
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Courtroom Drama
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Courtroom Drama
Prosecutor
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Courtroom Drama
Prosecutor had described how the attacker had entered the apartment on the main level (2nd floor)
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Courtroom Drama
Prosecutor had described how the attacker had entered the apartment on the main level (2nd floor), disconnected the phone
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Courtroom Drama
Prosecutor had described how the attacker had entered the apartment on the main level (2nd floor), disconnected the phone, by pulling plug,
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Courtroom Drama
Prosecutor had described how the attacker had entered the apartment on the main level (2nd floor), disconnected the phone, by pulling plug, picked up a carving knife in kitchen
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Courtroom Drama
Prosecutor had described how the attacker had entered the apartment on the main level (2nd floor), disconnected the phone, by pulling plug, picked up a carving knife in kitchen, and a washcloth to cover his hair.
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Courtroom Drama
Prosecutor had described how the attacker had entered the apartment on the main level (2nd floor), disconnected the phone, by pulling plug, picked up a carving knife in kitchen, and a washcloth to cover his hair. Had then gone upstairs to the bedroom level,
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Courtroom Drama
Prosecutor had described how the attacker had entered the apartment on the main level (2nd floor), disconnected the phone, by pulling plug, picked up a carving knife in the kitchen, and a washcloth to cover his hair. Had then gone upstairs to the bedroom level (3rd floor), entered the front bedroom and taken a pack and money.
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The Scene of the crime:
6565 Sabado Tarde
DECK - 2 LEVELS: 2nd, 3rd
WALK
DRIVE- WAY
FENCE
DECK on 2nd and 3rd floors
BATH
X
ENTER FROM2ND FLOORDECK
MGR. 1ST FLOOR
#13 2ND
#18 3RD
2 bedrooms, bath on 3rd2 bedrooms, bath on 3rdkitchen on 2nd floorkitchen on 2nd floor
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Courtroom Drama
Prosecutor had described how the attacker had entered the apartment on the main level (2nd floor), disconnected the phone, by pulling plug, picked up a carving knife in kitchen, and a washcloth to cover his hair. Had then gone upstairs to the bedroom level, entered front bedroom and taken pack and money from front bedroom, misc.. things from other rooms.
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Courtroom Drama
Prosecutor had described how the attacker had entered the apartment on the main level (2nd floor), disconnected the phone, by pulling plug, picked up a carving knife in kitchen, and a washcloth to cover his hair. Had then gone upstairs to the bedroom level, entered front bedroom and taken a pack and money from front bedroom, misc. things from other rooms.
Was discovered by Alleged Victim
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Courtroom Drama
Prosecutor had described how the attacker had entered the apartment on the main level (2nd floor), disconnected the phone, by pulling plug, picked up a carving knife in kitchen, and a washcloth to cover his hair. Had then gone upstairs to the bedroom level, entered front bedroom and taken pack and money from front bedroom, misc. things from other rooms.
Was discovered by Alleged Victim, sitting on her bed,
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Courtroom Drama
Prosecutor had described how the attacker had entered the apartment on the main level (2nd floor), disconnected the phone, by pulling plug, picked up a carving knife in kitchen, and a washcloth to cover his hair. Had then gone upstairs to the bedroom level, entered front bedroom and taken pack and money from front bedroom, misc. things from other rooms.
Was discovered by Alleged Victim, sitting on her bed, wash cloth covering his hair
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Courtroom Drama
Prosecutor had described how the attacker had entered the apartment on the main level (2nd floor), disconnected the phone, by pulling plug, picked up a carving knife in kitchen, and a washcloth to cover his hair. Had then gone upstairs to the bedroom level, entered front bedroom and taken pack and money from front bedroom, misc. things from other rooms.
Was discovered by Alleged Victim, sitting on her bed, wash cloth covering his hair, with a knife to her throat
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Courtroom Drama
Prosecutor had described how the attacker had entered the apartment on the main level (2nd floor), disconnected the phone, by pulling plug, picked up a carving knife in kitchen, and a washcloth to cover his hair. Had then gone upstairs to the bedroom level, entered front bedroom and taken pack and money from front bedroom, misc. things from other rooms.
Was discovered by Alleged Victim, sitting on her bed, wash cloth covering his hair, with a knife to her throat, and his other hand on her breast.
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Courtroom Drama
Prosecutor had described how the attacker had entered the apartment on the main level (2nd floor), disconnected the phone, by pulling plug, picked up a carving knife in kitchen, and a washcloth to cover his hair. Had then gone upstairs to the bedroom level, entered front bedroom and taken pack and money from front bedroom, misc. things from other rooms.
Was discovered by Alleged Victim, sitting on her bed, wash cloth covering his hair, with a knife to her throat, and other hand on her breast.
What did she do?
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Courtroom Drama
Prosecutor had described how the attacker had entered the apartment on the main level (2nd floor), disconnected the phone, by pulling plug, picked up a carving knife in kitchen, and a washcloth to cover his hair. Had then gone upstairs to the bedroom level, entered front bedroom and taken pack and money from front bedroom, misc. things from other rooms.
Was discovered by Alleged Victim, sitting on her bed, wash cloth covering his hair, with a knife to her throat, and other hand on her breast.
What did she do? Scream?
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Courtroom Drama
Prosecutor had described how the attacker had entered the apartment on the main level (2nd floor), disconnected the phone, by pulling plug, picked up a carving knife in kitchen, and a washcloth to cover his hair. Had then gone upstairs to the bedroom level, entered front bedroom and taken pack and money from front bedroom, misc. things from other rooms.
Was discovered by Alleged Victim, sitting on her bed, wash cloth covering his hair, with a knife to her throat, and other hand on her breast.
What did she do? Scream? No.
.
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Courtroom Drama
Prosecutor had described how the attacker had entered the apartment on the main level (2nd floor), disconnected the phone, by pulling plug, picked up a carving knife in kitchen, and a washcloth to cover his hair. Had then gone upstairs to the bedroom level, entered front bedroom and taken pack and money from front bedroom, misc. things from other rooms.
Was discovered by Alleged Victim, sitting on her bed, wash cloth covering his hair, with a knife to her throat, and other hand on her breast.
What did she do? Scream? No.
Her roommate sat up in bed
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Courtroom Drama
Prosecutor had described how the attacker had entered the apartment on the main level (2nd floor), disconnected the phone, by pulling plug, picked up a carving knife in kitchen, and a washcloth to cover his hair. Had then gone upstairs to the bedroom level, entered front bedroom and taken pack and money from front bedroom, misc. things from other rooms.
Was discovered by Alleged Victim, sitting on her bed, wash cloth covering his hair, with a knife to her throat, and other hand on her breast.
What did she do? Scream? No.
Her roommate sat up in bed and Screamed !!!!
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Courtroom Drama
Prosecutor had described how the attacker had entered the apartment on the main level (2nd floor), disconnected the phone, by pulling plug, picked up a carving knife in kitchen, and a washcloth to cover his hair. Had then gone upstairs to the bedroom level, entered front bedroom and taken pack and money from front bedroom, misc. things from other rooms.
Was discovered by Alleged Victim, sitting on her bed, wash cloth covering his hair, with a knife to her throat, and other hand on her breast.
What did she do? Scream? No.
Her roommate sat up in bed and Screamed. The assailant ran.
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Courtroom Drama (-cont.)
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Courtroom Drama (-cont.)
The women heard him clumping down the stairs.
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Courtroom Drama (-cont.)
The women heard him clumping down the stairs.
The washcloth was found at the first *
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The Scene of the crime:
6565 Sabado Tarde
DECK - 2 LEVELS: 2nd, 3rd
WALK
DRIVE- WAY
FENCE
DECK on 2nd and 3rd floors
BATH
X
ENTER FROM2ND FLOORDECK
MGR 1ST FLOOR
#13 2ND
#18 3RD
*
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Courtroom Drama (-cont.)
The women heard him clumping down the stairs.
The washcloth was found at the first * , the knife at the second.
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The Scene of the crime:
6565 Sabado Tarde
DECK - 2 LEVELS: 2nd, 3rd
WALK
DRIVE- WAY
FENCE
DECK on 2nd and 3rd floors
BATH
X
*
ENTER FROM2ND FLOORDECK
MGR 1ST FLOOR
#13 2ND
#18 3RD
*
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Courtroom Drama (-cont.)
The women heard him clumping down the stairs.
The washcloth was found at the first * , the knife at the second.
Manager
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Courtroom Drama (-cont.)
The women heard him clumping down the stairs.
The washcloth was found at the first * , the knife at the second.
Manager testified that he heard a scream,
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Courtroom Drama (-cont.)
The women heard him clumping down the stairs.
The washcloth was found at the first * , the knife at the second.
Manager testified that he heard a scream, running feet
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Courtroom Drama (-cont.)
The women heard him clumping down the stairs.
The washcloth was found at the first * , the knife at the second.
Manager testified that he heard a scream, running feet, went outside and found the knife in the shrubbery.
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Courtroom Drama (-cont.)
The women heard him clumping down the stairs.
The washcloth was found at the first * , the knife at the second.
Manager testified that he heard a scream, running feet, went outside and found the knife in the shrubbery. Later, Victim, with no prompting
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Courtroom Drama (-cont.)
The women heard him clumping down the stairs.
The washcloth was found at the first * , the knife at the second.
Manager testified that he heard a scream, running feet, went outside and found the knife in the shrubbery. Later, Victim, with no prompting, picked out the attacker in an arraignment hearing at the Courthouse
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Courtroom Drama (-cont.)
The women heard him clumping down the stairs.
The washcloth was found at the first * , the knife at the second.
Manager testified that he heard a scream, running feet, went outside and found the knife in the shrubbery. Later, Victim, with no prompting, picks out attacker in an arraignment hearing at the Courthouse, not having seen him in a lineup or in mug shots.
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Courtroom Drama (-cont.)
The women heard him clumping down the stairs.
The washcloth was found at the first * , the knife at the second.
Manager testified that he heard a scream, running feet, went outside and found the knife in the shrubbery. Later, Victim, with no prompting, picks out attacker in an arraignment hearing at the Courthouse, not having seen him in a lineup or in mug shots.
By now, it was clear that the case hinges on
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Courtroom Drama (-cont.)
The women heard him clumping down the stairs.
The washcloth was found at the first * , the knife at the second.
Manager testified that he heard a scream, running feet, went outside and found the knife in the shrubbery. Later, Victim, with no prompting, picks out attacker in arraignment hearing at the Courthouse, not having seen him in a lineup or in mug shots.
By now, it was clear that the case hinges on whether it was possible for the Victim to see
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Courtroom Drama (-cont.)
The women heard him clumping down the stairs.
The washcloth was found at the first * , the knife at the second.
Manager testified that he heard a scream, running feet, went outside and found the knife in the shrubbery. Later, Victim, with no prompting, picks out attacker in arraignment hearing at the Courthouse, not having seen him in a lineup or in mug shots.
By now, it was clear that the case hinges on whether it was possible for the Victim to see well enough to identify her attacker.
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Courtroom Drama (-cont.)
The women heard him clumping down the stairs.
The washcloth was found at the first * , the knife at the second.
Manager testified that he heard a scream, running feet, went outside and found the knife in the shrubbery. Later, Victim, with no prompting, picks out attacker in arraignment hearing at the Courthouse, not having seen him in a lineup or in mug shots.
By now, it was clear that the case hinges on whether it was possible for the Victim to see well enough to identify her attacker. Everything depended upon visibility
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Courtroom Drama (-cont.)
The women heard him clumping down the stairs.
The washcloth was found at the first * , the knife at the second.
Manager testified that he heard a scream, running feet, went outside and found the knife in the shrubbery. Later, Victim, with no prompting, picks out attacker in arraignment hearing at the Courthouse, not having seen him in a lineup or in mug shots.
By now, it was clear that the case hinges on whether it was possible for the Victim to see well enough to identify her attacker. Everything depended upon visibility in the light at 6:00 am on that morning in March.
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Courtroom Drama (-cont.)
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Courtroom Drama (-cont.)
The testimony produced by the Prosecutor:
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Courtroom Drama (-cont.)
The testimony produced by the Prosecutor:
An astronomer from the S. B. Museum of Natural
History
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Courtroom Drama (-cont.)
The testimony produced by the Prosecutor:
An astronomer from the S. B. Museum of Natural
History
A visit to the scene of the crime for the jury
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Courtroom Drama (-cont.)
The testimony produced by the Prosecutor:
An astronomer from the S. B. Museum of Natural
History
A visit to the scene of the crime for the jury
My inadvertent experiment
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Courtroom Drama (-cont.)
The testimony produced by the Prosecutor:
An astronomer from the S. B. Museum of Natural
History
A visit to the scene of the crime for the jury
My inadvertent experiment
Observation of the light at 6:00 am
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Courtroom Drama (-cont.)
The testimony produced by the Prosecutor:
An astronomer from the S. B. Museum of Natural
History
A visit to the scene of the crime for the jury
My inadvertent experiment
Observation of the light at 6:00 am
Letter to the Judge
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Courtroom Drama (-cont.)
The testimony produced by the Prosecutor:
An astronomer from the S. B. Museum of Natural
History
A visit to the scene of the crime for the jury
My inadvertent experiment
Observation of the light at 6:00 am
Letter to the Judge
Dismissal
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Why were judge and two attorneys agreed on solution?
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Why were judge and two attorneys agreed on solution? Prosecutor didn’t want questions raised
resulting in a mistrial.
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Why were judge and two attorneys agreed on solution? Prosecutor didn’t want questions raised
resulting in a mistrial. Defense wanted me off jury. From my letter,
was clear I might sway jury against defendant.
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Why were judge and two attorneys agreed on solution? Prosecutor didn’t want questions raised
resulting in a mistrial. Defense wanted me off the jury. From my letter,
it was clear I might sway jury against defendant. Judge didn’t want a mistrial. Only solution was to dismiss me, bring in an alternate juror.
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Why were judge and two attorneys agreed on solution? Prosecutor didn’t want questions raised
resulting in a mistrial. Defense wanted me off jury. From my letter,
was clear I might sway jury against defendant. Judge didn’t want a mistrial. Only solution was to dismiss me, bring in alternate.
The Judge’s letter
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““The critical issue was that of The critical issue was that of identification by the occupants identification by the occupants of the victim’s bedroom”of the victim’s bedroom”
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Why were judge and two attorneys agreed on solution? Prosecutor didn’t want questions raised
resulting in a mistrial. Defense wanted me off jury. From my letter,
was clear I might sway jury against defendant. Judge didn’t want a mistrial. Only solution was to dismiss me, bring in alternate.
The Judge’s letter
Was the outcome just?
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Why were judge and two attorneys agreed on solution? Prosecutor didn’t want questions raised
resulting in a mistrial. Defense wanted me off jury. From my letter,
was clear I might sway jury against defendant. Judge didn’t want a mistrial. Only solution was to dismiss me, bring in alternate.
The Judge’s letter
Was the outcome just?
Does the Economic Paradigm help to evaluate thesituation?
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The Economic Paradigm
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The Economic Paradigm
1. Specifying the alternative feasible outcomes:
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The Economic Paradigm
1. Specifying the alternative feasible outcomes:
a. Found Guilty when guilty
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The Economic Paradigm
1. Specifying the alternative feasible outcomes:a. Found Guilty when guilty
b. Found Innocent when guilty
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The Economic Paradigm
1. Specifying the alternative feasible outcomes:
a. Found Guilty when guilty
b. Found Innocent when guilty
c. Found Guilty when innocent
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The Economic Paradigm
1. Specifying the alternative feasible outcomes:
a. Found Guilty when guilty
b. Found Innocent when guilty
c. Found Guilty when innocent
d. Found Innocent when innocent
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The Economic Paradigm
1. Specifying the alternative feasible outcomes:
a. Found Guilty when guilty
b. Found Innocent when guilty
c. Found Guilty when innocent
d. Found Innocent when innocent
2. Value states of the world
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The Economic Paradigm
1. Specifying the alternative feasible outcomes:
a. Found Guilty when guilty
b. Found Innocent when guilty
c. Found Guilty when innocent
d. Found Innocent when innocent
2. Value states of the world
3. Select “best” outcome
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The Economic Paradigm
1. Specifying the alternative feasible outcomes:
a. Found Guilty when guilty
b. Found Innocent when guilty
c. Found Guilty when innocent
d. Found Innocent when innocent
2. Value states of the world
3. Select “best” outcome
How do we do steps 2., 3. ?
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Problem: We don’t know if defendant is innocent or guilty.
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Problem: We don’t know if defendant is innocent or guilty.
Purpose of trial is to determine innocence or guilt, but we may never know truth of innocence or guilt with certainty.
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Problem: We don’t know if defendant is innocent or guilty.
Purpose of trial is to determine innocence or guilt, but we may never know truth of innocence or guilt with certainty. When there is a possibility for error, we need a logical approach to doing our best, i.e., to determine guilt or innocence “beyond a reasonable doubt.”
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Problem: We don’t know if defendant is innocent or guilty.
Purpose of trial is to determine innocence or guilt, but we may never know truth of innocence or guilt with certainty. When there is a possibility for error, we need a logical approach to doing our best, i.e., to determine guilt or innocence “beyond a reasonable doubt.”
We turn to the science of Hypothesis Testing.
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Null Hypothesis: The Defendant is INNOCENT. As prescribed by the U. S. Constitution.
Alternate Hypothesis: The Defendant is GUILTY.
Distribution fordefendantswho areinnocent
Distribution of Evidence quality for guilty defendants
0.0 Standard of quality for evidence 1.0Certaintyof Guilt
(Certainty ofInnocence)
A B
ArbitraryStandard SetFor “Beyond aReasonable doubt”
Innocent,found GuiltyType I Error
Guilty,found InnocentType II Error
S*
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How do we choose the correct standard for the quality of evidence ?
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How do we choose the correct standard for the quality of evidence ?
Go back to the Economic Paradigm
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How do we choose the correct standard for the quality of evidence ?
Go back to the Economic Paradigm
The objective would be to minimize the socialcost of error,
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How do we choose the correct standard for the quality of evidence ?
Go back to the Economic Paradigm
The objective would be to minimize the socialcost of error,
I.e., Min SC = P( II ) . $ II + P( I ) . $ I
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Null Hypothesis: The Defendant is INNOCENT.As prescribed by the U. S. Constitution.
Alternate Hypothesis: The Defendant is GUILTY.
Distribution ofdefendantswho areinnocent
Distribution of guilty defendants
0.0 Standard of quality for evidence 1.0Certaintyof Guilt
(Certainty ofInnocence)
A B
ArbitraryStandard Set
Innocent,found GuiltyType I Error
Guilty,found InnocentType II Error
S*
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How do we choose the correct standard for the quality of evidence ?
Go back to the Economic Paradigm
The objective would be to minimize the socialcost of error,
I.e., Min SC = P( II ) . $ II + P( I ) . $ I*
In our society we would probably assign ahigher cost to *convicting an innocent manthan than that for allowing a guilty man to go free
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This diagram illustrates the seriousness of the This diagram illustrates the seriousness of the responsibility of each juror in a trial which may responsibility of each juror in a trial which may determine the outcome of the most critical life determine the outcome of the most critical life issue for a defendant and the most important issue issue for a defendant and the most important issue of fairness for our society in a case that can and of fairness for our society in a case that can and should only be brought before a court of law. should only be brought before a court of law.
It is a system, based on decision science, to It is a system, based on decision science, to average out, and thus minimize the effect of, biases average out, and thus minimize the effect of, biases by the process, by jurors and thus biases by by the process, by jurors and thus biases by society. It cannot eliminate the possibility of error, society. It cannot eliminate the possibility of error, but it will minimize the cost of errors.but it will minimize the cost of errors.
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Next Time
Professor PhillipsProfessor Phillips
The Family and DelinquencyThe Family and Delinquency And/OrAnd/Or
Is Criminal JustIs Criminal Just