Economic Survey 2016

Popular Version

Foreward The Popular Version is based on a master set of data on the 2016 Economic Survey publication report that has been compiled by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS). The popular version is an easy to read publication with highlights on economic performance and indicators in 2015. The Economic Survey is an annual publication of the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS). It pre-sents socio-economic highlights of the economy for the last five years. The report forms an important source of input into the budgeting process, planning, monitoring and policy formulation processes. At KNBS we remain committed to keeping you informed. Feel free to seek any further clarification on the information provided from our office.

The Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) was established by The Statistics Act of 2006, to replace the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS). The KNBS as a Semi-Autonomous Government Agency (SAGA) plays a crucial role in the development of statistics, at the National and County levels needed for planning and policy formulation in the country. Under Section 4(2) of The Statistics Act 2006, the Bureau is respon-sible for; establishing standards and promoting the use of best practices and methods in the production and dissemination of statistical information, across the National Statistical System (NSS).

Vision

A centre of excellence in Statistics Production and Management

Mission

To effectively manage and coordinate the entire National Statistical System to enhance statistical produc-

tion and utilization.

Mandate

KNBS is mandated by law (Statistics Act 2006) to collect, analysis disseminate social economic statistics

needed for planning and policy formulation in the Country.

The Bureau has 47 fully operational statistics offices in all the Counties. There are Six Directorates at the KNBS, namely;

Production Statistics;

Macroeconomic Statistics;

Population and Social Statistics;

Strategy and Development;

Finance and Administration and;

Information, Communication and Technology.

Zachary Mwangi Director General, KNBS

About Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS)

Economic Survey 2016

The Gross Domestic

Product (GDP) is

estimated to have

expanded by 5.6 per

cent in 2015 compared

to a 5.3 per cent

growth in 2014. This

growth was mainly

supported by a stable

macroeconomic

environment and

improvement in

outputs of agriculture;

construction; finance

and insurance; and

real estate.

GDP Indicators, 2011- 2015

DOMESTIC ECONOMY

Sector contribution in 2015

3

Indicator Unit 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

GDP at Market Prices : (Current) KSh Billion 3,725,918.4 4,261,150.7 4,745,439.2 5,398,020.7 6,224,369.9

GDP at market prices (constant) KSh Billion 3,294,025.7 3,444,066.9 3,640,155.8 3,834,244.2 4,050,848.4

GDP Per capita (Current): KSh 94,219.4 104,820.9 113,210.3 124,710.0 140,961.0

GDP Per capita (Constant) KSh 83,297.9 84,721.2 87,105.4 89,240.5 91,588.0

GNI Per Capita (Current) KSh 94,235.0 104,514.0 112,575.0 124,044.0 139,972.0

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Transport & Storage

Real Estate

Education

Public administration & Defence

Information & Communication

Electricity Supply

Accommodation & Food service

Water Supply, Sewerage & Waste Mgt

Activities of household as employers

Financial Intermediation Services Construction

30%

10.3%

8.4%

7.6%

5.0%

4.8%

4.0%

0.9%

1.0%

0.8%

0.8%

0.5%

-2.7% KSh

Economic Survey 2016

-

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

6.1

4.6

5.7 5.3

5.6

GDP Growth Rate

INTERNATIONAL SCENE

4

ANNUAL WORLD INFLATION RATES

World real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth decelerated to 3.1 per cent in 2015 from 3.4 per cent in 2014. This was as a result of low commodity prices, weaker capital flows, subdued global trade and increasing financial market volatility particularly in emerging markets and developing economies. The economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) slowed from 5.1 per cent GDP growth in 2014 to 3.8 per cent growth in 2015. However, there was a slowed growth of 3.4 per cent in 2015 from 5.8 per cent in 2014 in the East Africa Community (EAC). This was mainly asso-ciated with political instability in Burundi and uncertainties associated with general election in Tanzania and Uganda.

Uganda

5.2%

Tanzania

6.9%

South Africa

1.4%

Brazil

-3%

United States of America

2.4% China

6.8%

Japan

0.6%

Germany

1.5%

United Kingdom 2.4%

Regions

7.2

7.8

5.7 5.6

1.3

2.2

3.0

4.4

3.8

-

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

BRIICS EAC WAEMU ASEAN MASHREQ2

Perc

enta

ge

Region

Inflation Rate

Economic Survey 2016

EMPLOYMENT, EARNINGS AND CONSUMER PRICES

5

Formal and Informal New Jobs Created,

2011 - 2015

Public Sector

2.5%

Self Employment

19.6%

Average earning Private - 10.7 % Public - 6.2 %

Private Sector

5.4.%

Employment in 2015

5.9%

Average Annual Inflation Rate

Employment Growth Rates

14.0

9.4

5.7

6.9 6.6

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Years

InflationRates

Pe

rce

nt

Ne

w jo

bs

in '0

00

s

Economic Survey 2016

PUBLIC FINANCE

Government Revenue and Expenditure, 2011/12-

2015/16

National Government Expenditure by

Function, 2015 — 16

MONEY, BANKING AND FINANCE

6

0.7

2.2

3.1

3.1

3.8

6.1

10.1

10.4

12.9

13.5

14.4

- 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0

Mining and Quarrying

Financial Institutions

Agriculture

OtherActivities

Building and Construction

Transport, Storage and communication

Real Estate

Manufacturing

Community and Personal Services (NPISH)

Wholesale and retail trade, hotels and restaurants

Other Business

Per cent

Se

cto

r

-

200.0

400.0

600.0

800.0

1,000.0

1,200.0

1,400.0

1,600.0

1,800.0

2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15* 2015/16+

KS

h B

illi

on

s

Year

Revenue Expenditure

Share of Commercial Banks' Bills, Loans and Advances to Private Sector, 2015

Economic Survey 2016

INTERNATIONAL TRADE

7

Entry of cargo at port of Mombasa

Economic Survey 2016

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*

Valu

e KS

h Bi

llion

Year

Values of Principal Imports

Petroleum Products

Industrial Machinery

Aircraft and associated equipment

Road Motor Vehicles

Iron and Steel

Val

ue

KSh

Bill

ion

AGRICULTURE SECTOR

8

This Infographics highlight the Sale of Selected Agricultural Produce by Co-operatives and the percentage share to Marketed Production, 2011 - 2015

Economic Survey 2016

- 100.0 200.0 300.0 400.0 500.0 600.0 700.0

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

549.0

495.2

523.0

541.3

600.4

Value of marketed Horticulture Produce

7.5%

Sugarcane Production

6.6%

Tea Production

10.3%

Coffee Production

16%

Wheat Production

4.2%

Maize Production

9%

Overall Growth Performance

6.2%

Recorded Milk Production (in Million litres)

ENVIRONMENT & NATURAL RESOURCES

Water

Mining The overall value of mineral output rose by 14.7 per cent from KSh 21.billion in 2014 to KSh 24.2 billion in 2015. The increase was mainly attributed to high earnings from titanium minerals of illmenite, rutile and zircon in the export markets. Earring from titanium

ores accounted for more than half of the minerals value.

9

Titanium Mining in the Kwale County

KSh. 32.5

billion in

2014/15

KSh. 41.3

billion in

2015/2016

County Government Environment protection

KSh. 5.2

billion in

2014/15

KSh. 16.6

billion in

2015/2016

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16*

Nu

mb

er

Year

Water Purification Points, Boreholes drilled by Public and Private Sector, 2011/12-

2015/16*

Water Purification Points Public Boreholes Private Boreholes

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*

'00

0 T

on

ne

s

Year

Quantity of Principal Minerals, 2011-2015

Crushed Refined Soda Illmenite Titanium Ore

Soda Ash Rutile Titanium Ore

Fluorspar

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*

Val

ue in

KSh

Mill

ion

Year

Value of Principal Minerals, 2011-2015

Soda Ash Rutile Titanium Ore

Illmenite Titanium Ore Zircon Titanium Ore

Fluorspar

Water resources for domestic, agricul-

ture and industrial use

Zircon

National Government Water supply

Economic Survey 2016

MANUFACTURING SECTOR

10

The manufacturing sector expanded by 3.5 per cent in 2015 compared to 3.2 per cent in 2014. The growth was partly attributed to reduced cost of inputs such as petroleum products and electricity.

Quantum Index, 2014 — 2015

132.5

116.5 118.6

138.2 134.1 135.6

125.4

143.6

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Total Food Products Beverages and Tobacco Rubber and Plastic Products Total Manufacturing

Pe

rce

nta

ge

2014 2015

Producer Price Index Percentage Change, 2015

Economic Survey 2016

-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION

11

Number of reported building works in major towns

Road construction

Economic Survey 2016

Buildings in major cities

Cement consumption

9.9% In 2015

TRANSPORT AND STORAGE

Cargo throughput in '000 Dead Weight Tonnes

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Motor Vehicles Motor and Auto Cycles Total Motor Vehicles and Auto cycles

Newly Registered motor vehicles, motor and auto cycles

Standard Gauge Railway Construction

12 Economic Survey 2016

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Rail Freight Traffic in Tonnes

0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,0001,200,000

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

5,200.0

5,400.0

5,600.0

5,800.0

6,000.0

6,200.0

6,400.0

6,600.0

6,800.0

7,000.0

7,200.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

7,015.2

6,860.8

6,596.7

6,281.6

5,878.6

Bed

-Nig

hts

'000

Year

TOURISM SECTOR

13

Tourism Earnings, 2011— 2015

New terminal at the Jomo Kenyatta International airport

Hotel Bed - Nights Occupancy, 2011 - 2015

76.0

78.0

80.0

82.0

84.0

86.0

88.0

90.0

92.0

94.0

96.0

98.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

97.9

96.0

94.0

87.1

84.6

Tour

ism Ea

rning

s (KS

h Bil

lion)

Year

-

200.0

400.0

600.0

800.0

1,000.0

1,200.0

1,400.0

1,600.0

1,800.0

2,000.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

1,822.9 1,710.8

1,519.6

1,350.4

1,180.5

Arr

ival

s '0

00

Year

Visitor arrivals

Economic Survey 2016

Proportion of Geothermal power

to total electricity generation

47.5%

Geothermal production in Kenya

ENERGY

14

The energy sector witnessed a steady rise in global crude oil and other liquid inventories in 2015. Murban crude prices decreased to an average of USD 52.53 per barrel in 2015, down from an average of USD 99.45 per barrel in 2014.

Electricity generation in GWH

Economic Survey 2016

Petroleum Demand

Installed Capacity, 2015

Hydro35.2%

Thermal Oil

35.7%

Geo thermal26.9%

Wind1.1%

Co-generation1.1%

Power generation

15 Economic Survey 2016

INFORMATION,COMMUNICATION AND TECHNOLOGY (ICT)

Mobile and mobile money subscriptions

-

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

No. of SMS sent

SMS sent

16 Economic Survey 2016

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Total mobile money transfer in KSh billion

Telecommunication tower

17

EDUCATION

17

Free Primary Education has increased school enrollment

Secondary School Gross Enrolment Rate (GER) and Net Primary School Gross Enrolment Rate (GER) and Net Enrolment

110,692

86,045

173,987

115,746

217,164

146,170

257,326

169,708

29,554 24,905 39,980

31,666 42,454 37,994

45,259 40,630

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female

2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16*

Public Private

University Enrolment, 2011— 2015

Economic Survey 2016

The total number of registered births marginally decreased from 954,254 in 2014 to 950,224 in 2015. Similarly, the coverage rate declined marginally from 63.4 per cent in 2014 to 60.4 per cent in 2015. Disparities in registration of births were observed across counties with Garissa recording the highest coverage rate of 93.3 per cent while Mandera recorded the least coverage rate at 16.0 per cent.

Total Number of registered medical personal in 2015 was 133,002 up from 12,1578 in 2014.

Number of registered medical personal per 100,000 thousand of the population rose to 301 in 2015 up from 282.

HEALTH INDICATORS

18

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000

Doctors

Dentists

Pharmacists

Pharmaceutical Technologists

BSc Nursing

Registered Nurses

Enrolled Nurses

Clinical Officers

Public Health officers1

Public Health Technicians2

Number

Pe

rso

nn

el

2015 2014

Registered Medical Personnel, 2014 - 2015

Hospital building

Economic Survey 2016

GOVERNANCE

Number of Police, Prison and Probation Officers, 2011-2015

Reported crime and type

In 2015, the Judiciary implemented a number of institutional changes aimed at improving delivery of justice. This included recruitment of more judicial officers, opening up of new court stations and launching the Magistrates and Kadhis Courts Registry Manual.

2,648

6,164

21,174

2,865

5,591

1,961

9,528

2,184

1,111

5,525

120

3,983

3,244

79

71

19

6,223

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000

Homicide

Offences against morality

Robbery

Breakings

Theft of stock

Stealing

Theft by servant

Dangerous drugs

Traffic offences

Criminal damage

Economic crimes

Corruption

Offences involving tourists

Other penal code offences

Num

ber

Type

of c

rim

e

17 19

Nu

mb

er

Economic Survey 2016

Published by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) - April , 2016 ISBN 9966 – 767– 52– 5

@KNBStats

Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBStats)

Kenya National Bureau of Statistics

Herufi House

Lt. Tumbo Avenue

P.O. Box 30266 – 00100

Nairobi, Kenya

Telephone: (+254) 3317583/6

Fax: (+254) 20 3315977 Email: directorgeneral@knbs.or.ke

info@knbs.or.ke

Website: www.knbs.or.ke

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