Economic Indicators: December 1983 - St. Louis FedCharts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of...
Transcript of Economic Indicators: December 1983 - St. Louis FedCharts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of...
98th Congress, 1st Session
Economic Indicators
DECEMBER 1983
Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the
Council of Economic Advisers
UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON : 1983
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE(Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)
ROGER W. JEPSEN, Iowa, ChairmanLEE H. HAMILTON, Indiana, Vice Chairman
SENATEWILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware)JAMES ABDNOR (South Dakota)STEVEN D. SYMMS (Idaho)MACK MATTINGLY (Georgia)ALFONSE M. D'AMATO (New York)LLOYD BENTSEN (Texas)WILLIAM PROXMIRE (Wisconsin)EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts)PAUL S. SARBANES (Maryland)
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVESGILLIS W. LONG (Louisiana)PARREN J. MITCHELL (Maryland)AUGUSTUS F. HAWKINS (California)DAVID R. OBEY (Wisconsin)JAMES H. SCHEUER (New York)CHALMERS P. WYLIE (Ohio)MARJORIE S. HOLT (Maryland)DAN LUNGREN (California)OLYMPIA J. SNOWE (Maine)
BRUCE R. BARTLETT, Executive Director
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
MARTIN FELDSTEIN, ChairmanWILLIAM A. NISKANEN, Member
WILLIAM POOLE, Member
[PUBLIC LAW 120—SlsT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION]
JOINT RESOLUTION [SJ. Res. 55]
To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators"
Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That theJoint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and thata sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeantat Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; twocopies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to theJoint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents fordistribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copiesprinted for sale to the public.
Approved June 23, 1949.
Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce.
Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $4.25 a single copy($5.35 foreign), or by subscription at $25.00 per year ($31.25 for foreignmailing) from:
SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTSGOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDINGGROSS NATIONAL PRODUCTAccording to revised estimates for the third quarter, gross national product rose $90.2 billion or 11.5 percent, bothat annual rates. Real output (GNP adjusted for price changes) rose 7.6 percent (annual rate) and the implicit pricedeflator rose at a 3.6 percent annual rate.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)3,600
3,200
2,800
2,400
2,000
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)3,600
—
_•
—
—
:
r*»**""***
i i i1975
^»**""*"""""*
1 1 1
1976
^
1 1 1
1977
SEASON/
IN a
/
1 i 11978
ULY ADJUSTED ANNU
GNPJRRENT DOLLA
i 1 i
1979
Al RATES
RS S
GNPIN 1972 DOl
1 1 i
1980
^1
LARS
1 1 1
1981
-^ *
1 1 1
1982
^E^^
—
E
—
i i i1983
3,200
2,800
2,400
2,000
1,600
1,200
SOURCf DFPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Period
197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982
1981: IIIIV
1982: IIIIllIV
1983: IIIIIIr
Grossnationalproduct
1,077.61,185.91,326.41,434.21,549.21,718.01,918.32,163.92,417.82,631.72,954.13,073.0
3,004.93,032.2
3,021.43,070.23,090.73,109.6
3,171.53,272.03,362.2
Personalconsump-
tionexpendi-
tures
672.2737.1812.0888.1976.4
1,084.3,204.4,346.5
1,507.21,668.1,857.2,991.9
1,886.11,904.1
1,938.91,972.82,008.82,046.9
2,073.02,147.02,181.1
Grossprivate
domesticinvest-ment
166.4195.0229.8228.7206.1257.9324.1386.6423.0401.9474.9414.5
495.8476.2
422.9432.5425.3377.4
404.1450.1501.1
Exports ar
Netexports
4.1.7
14.213.426.813.8
-4.0-1.113.223.926.317.4
22.829.2
29.933.3
.95.6
17.0-8.5
-18.3
id imports ofservices
Exports
68.877.5
109.6146.2154.9170.9182.7218.7281.4338.8368.8347.6
367.5371.0
358.4364.5346.0321.6
326.9327.1341.1
goods and
Imports
64.776.795.4
132.8128.1157.1186.7219.8268.1314.8342.5330.2
344.7341.7
328.5331.2345.0316.1
309.9335.6359.4
Total
234.9253.1270.4304.1339.9362.1393.8431.9474.4537.8595.7649.2
600.3622.8
629.8631.6655.7679.7
677.4683.4698.3
Govengoo
Tntal
96.2101.7102.0111.0122.7129.2143.4153.6168.3197.0229.2258.7
232.4248.5
249.7244.1261.7279.2
273.5273.7278.1
iment pureh*ds and servi
Federal
Nationaldefense
70.273.172.877.083.086.092.8
100.3111.8131.2154.0179.4
154.9166.7
168.1175.2183.6190.8
194.4199.4201.2
tses ofces
Non-defense
26.028.529.133.939.743.250.653.356.565.975.279.3
77.581.8
81.768.978.188.5
79.174.376.9
State andlocal
138.7151.4168.5193.1217.2232.9250.4278.3306.0340.8366.5390.5
367.9374.3
380.0387.5394.0400.5
404.0409.7420.2
Pin « 1
1,070.01,175.71,307.91,420.11,556.11,706.21,895.32,137.42,403.52,641.52,935.63,097.5
2,971.43,017.9
3,047.13,081.43,095.63,165.9
3,210.93,286.63,353.7
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1972 DOLLARS[Billions of 1972 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Period
197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982
1981: IIIIV
1982: IIIIllIV
1983: IIIni r
•Gross
nationalproduct
,122.4,185.9,254.3,246.3,231.6,298.2,369.7,438.6,479.4,475.0,513.8,485.4
1,525.81,506.9
1,485.81,489.31,485.71,480.7
1,490.11,525.11,553.4
Personalconsump-
tionexpendi-
tures
696.8737.1767.9762.8779.4823.1864.3903.2927.6931.8956.8970.2
962.9955.7
961.4968.8971.0979.6
986.71,010.61,016.0
Gdome
Nonresi-dentialfixed
112.2121.0138.1135.7119.3125.6140.3158.3169.9165.8174.4166.1
177.0176.3
173.6167.1163.3160.5
159.9163.0170.1
ross privatstic investi
Residen-tial fixed
53.763.862.348.242.251.260.762.459.147.144.737.8
43.139.4
36.337.836.540.6
45.552.656.8
eiient
Changein
businessinven-tories
8.110.217.211.66.77.8
13.316.07.3
-4.48.5
-9.4
16.16.0
-10.2-3.4-1.3
-22.7
-15.4-5.4
3.8
Exja
Netexports
1.6.7
15.527.832.225.422.024.037.250.343.028.9
39.839.9
35.233.424.023.0
20.512.311.4
)orts of gond services
Exports
71.077.597.3
108.5103.5110.1112.9126.7146.2159.1159.7147.3
159.0158.7
151.8154.5146.4136.5
137.3136.2140.7
ods
Imports
69.376.781.880.771.484.790.9
102.7109.0108.8116.7118.4
119.1118.8
116.6121.1122.4113.5
116.8123.9129.2
Total
250.1253.1253.3260.3265.2265.2269.2274.6278.3284.3286.5291.8
286.8289.6
289.4285.8292.2299.7
292.9292.1295.2
Governigood
Total
103.7101.795.996.697.496.8
100.4100.3102.1106.4110.4116.6
111.8114.5
114.5110.3116.9124.4
118.4117.6118.9
nent purchs and serv
Federal
Nationaldefense
73.168.366.966.464.965.465.767.470.073.678.8
74.475.7
75.577.880.481.4
82.784.284.2
ases ofices
Non-defense
28.527.629.731.031.835.034.734.836.436.837.8
37.438.7
39.132.536.543.0
35.733.434.7
Stateand local
146.4151.4157.4163.6167.8168.4168.8174.3176.2177.9176.1175.2
175.0175.1
174.9175.4175.3175.2
174.5174.5176.3
Finalsales
,114.3,175.7,237.1,234.7,238.4
1,290.41,356.41,422.61,472.21,479.41,505.31,494.8
1,509.71,500.9
1,495.91,492.71,487.01,503.4
1,505.51,530.51,549.7
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT[1972 = 100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted]
Period
197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982
1981: IIIIV
1982: IIIIllIV
1983: IIIIll r
Grossnationalproduct
96.01100.00105.75115.08125.79132.34140.05150.42163.42178.42195.14206.88
196.94201.22
203.36206.15208.03210.00
212.83214.55216.44
Total
96.5100.0105.7116.4125.3131.7139.3149.1162.5179.0194.1205.3
195.9199.2
201.7203.6206.9209.0
210.1212.5214.7
Personal cexpen
Durablegoods
99.0100.0101.7108.2117.3123.9129.2136.4145.0156.2167.3174.8
169.3171.2
172.9174.2176.1176.1
177.3177.5179.1
onsumptionditures
Nondur-able
goods
96.6100.0108.5123.4132.5137.2143.6153.4169.9188.1202.5209.0
203.8205.5
206.8207.6210.2211.2
210.6213.4215.5
Services
95.6100.0104.7113.0121.6129.6139.3150.0162.3178.8195.8211.6
197.9202.5
206.3209.4213.4217.2
219.8223.1225.7
Grossdomestic i
Nonresi-dentialfixed
96.2100.0103.8115.4132.2138.6146.3157.2170.8186.2201.9209.7
203.7208.5
208.1211.1209.6209.9
207.7206.3206.3
privatenvestment
Residen-tial fixed
94.8100.0109.1120.3131.0140.7158.0178.3200.5218.5233.5240.2
235.7239.2
240.8240.9240.9238.4
244.9243.9249.0
Exports antgoods an(
Exports
97.0100.0112.7134.8149.6155.3161.9172.6192.5212.9230.8236.0
231.2233.8
236.1236.0236.3235.6
238.0240.2242.5
[ imports ofi services
Imports
93.3100.0116.7164.6179.6185.6205.5214.1246.1289.4293.4278.9
289.4287.7
281.8273.6281.8278.5
265.4270.7278.1
Gove
Total
92.7100.0106.3114.9126.0133.5142.8153.1164.8185.2207.7222.0
207.9217.0
218.0221.3223.8224.4
230.9232.7233.8
rnment pureser
Federal
Nationaldefense
100.0106.6115.1124.9132.4141.9152.7166.0187.5209.3227.7
208.3220.0
222.7225.1228.3234.3
234.9236.7238.8
lases of goonces
Non-defense
100.0105.6114.2128.2135.7144.6153.8162.5180.8204.5210.0
207.0211.2
209.1212.3213.9205.7
221.7222.6221.7
ds and
Stateand local
94.7100.0107.0118.0129.4138.3148.4159.7173.7191.5208.1222.9
210.2213.8
217.3220.9224.7228.5
231.6234.8238.3
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
CHANGES IN GNP AND GNP PRICE MEASURES[Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Period
197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982
1981: mIV
1982: InniIV .
1983: Innr.
Currentdollars
8.610.111.88.18.0
10.911.712.811.78.8
12.24.0
13.33.7
-1.46.62.72.5
8.213.311.5
Gro
Constant(1972)dollars
3.45.75.8-.6
-1.25.45.55.02.8-.32.61.9
3.6-4.9
-5.51.0
-1.0-1.3
2.69.77.6
ss national pr(
Implicitprice
deflator
5.04.25.88.89.35.25.87.48.69.29.46.0
9.49.0
4.35.63.73.8
5.53.33.6
>duct
Chain priceindex
4.94.16.09.19.25.76.17.68.98.99.46.5
9.08.2
5.65.25.95.0
3.64.34.5
Fixed-weighted
price index(1972
weights)
4.84.06.09.49.15.86.37.89.59.89.56.4
8.98.4
5.34.75.94.7
3.44.34.7
Currentdollars
8.19.6
10.29.49.9
11.011.111.811.910.711.37.3
11.43.9
7.57.27.57.8
5.215.16.5
Personal
Constant(1972)dollars
3.75.84.2-.72.25.65.04.52.7.5
2.71.4
3.53.0
2.43.1
.93.6
2.910.02.2
3onsumption ei
Implicitprice
deflator
4.33.75.7
10.17.65.15.87.09.0
10.28.45.8
7.77.0
5.04.06.54.1
2.24.64.2
tpenditures
Chain price .index
4.33.66.1
10.47.75.36.07.39.3
10.79.05.9
7.87.0
5.23.96.45.1
2.34.74.2
Fixed-weighted
price index(1972
weights)
4.23.56.1
10.47.85.36.27.49.7
11.19.25.7
7.56.8
4.83.56.75.1
1.64.94.4
NOTE.—Annual changes are from previous year and quarterly changes are from previous quarter. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS—OUTPUT, COSTS, ANDPROFITS
[Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Period
197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982
1981: HIIV..
1982: InIllIV
1983: IIIIIP
Gross cproduct of i
corporate(billions c
Currentdollars
609.9678.0759.4818.9890.0
1,001.31,128.41,276.21,416.81,540.71,739.91,776.7
1,778.61,778.9
1,764.91,780.21,786.81,775.0
1,817.61,892.41,957.8
omesticlonfinancialbusiness
f dollars)
1972dollars
626.8678.0731.9708.2694.2745.5795.8846.3876.1859.5887.5857.7
898.6878.9
864.3860.5859.5846.4
856.0885.8909.4
Totalcost andprofit 2
0.9731.0001.0381.1561.2821.3431.4181.5081.6171.7931.9602.072
1.9792.024
2.0422.0692.0792.097
2.1232.1362.153
Cun
Capitalconsump-
tionallowances
withcapital
consump-tion
adjustment
0.091.092.093.112.137.141.145.155.171.198.217.245
.217
.229
.236
.242
.247
.254
.252
.245
.241
rent-dollar co
Indirectbusinesstaxes 3
0.113.113.114.127.140.141.141.144.149.172.199.209
.199
.204
.204
.207
.209
.215
.218
.223
.221
st and profit
Compen-sation ofemploy-
0.641.659.692.786.837.878.928.998
1.0941.2181.3021.397
1.3061.342
1.3741.3941.4031.419
1.4281.4161.412
per unit of
Netinterest
0.029.028.031.042.044.040.040.044.050.065.074.076
.081
.080
.080
.079
.072
.073
.070
.066
.065
output (dollai
Corporatevaluation i
Total
0.099.107.107.090.124.144.163.168.154.140.169.145
.177
.169
.148
.147
.148
.135
.156
.187
.214
rs)1
profits withmd capital ccadjustments
Profitstax
liability
0.047.049.055.059.059.071.075.079.079.078.074.048
.075
.068
.053
.051
.049
.040
.049
.062
.070
inventorynsumption
Profitsaftertax4
0.052.058.053.030.065.073.088.089.075.062.095.097
.102
.101
.095
.096
.099
.095
.108
.125
.144
Outputper hour
of allemploy-
ees (1972dollars)
7.4507.6647.8497.5557.7748.0028.1448.2168.2018.1268.3328.373
8.3928.323
8.3428.3308.4098.421
8.4928.6278.738
Compen-sation per
hour ofall
employ-ees
(dollars)
4.7785.0525.4295.9376.5077.0247.5588.1988.9699.894
10.85011.700
10.95711.171
11.46311.61411.79511.952
12.12612.21312.331
1 Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business in 1972 dol-lars.
2 This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business withthe decimal point shifted two places to the left.
3 Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies.4 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor(Bureau of Labor Statistics).
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
NATIONAL INCOME[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Period
197119721973197419751976 ,197719781979198019811982
1981: HIIV
1982: IninIV
1983: In111
Nationalincome
871.5963.6,086.2,160.7,239.4,379.2,550.5,760.3
1,966.72,116.62,373.02,450.4
2,423.42,435.6
2,419.72,448.92,458.92,474.0
2,528.52,612.82,686.9
Compensa-tion of
employees *
652.2718.0801.3877.5931.4
1,036.31,152.11,301.11,458.11,599.61,769.21,865.7
1,791.71,815.6
1,834.21,859.91,879.51,889.0
1,923.71,968.72,011.8
Proprietors'inventory v
capital coadjust
Farm
15.018.732.826.524.619.119.126.331.921.830.521.5
35.031.3
27.416.815.826.0
22.221.015.5
income withiluation andnsumptionments
Nonfarm
54.458.161.062.265.475.084.892.2
100.295.689.787.4
88.585.8
83.788.187.890.2
98.4106.2111.2
Rentalincome ofpersons
withcapital
consump-tion
adjustment
20.221.022.623.523.023.524.826.627.931.541.449.9
42.745.6
47.449.050.952.3
54.154.853.9
Corporate p
Total
83.296.6
108.394.9
110.5138.1167.3192.4194.8175.4192.3164.8
197.6192.0
162.0166.8168.5161.9
181.8218.2248.4
rofits with inv
Profits •%adjustmc
consi
Total
82.094.0
105.696.7
120.6151.6178.5205.1209.6191.7203.3165.9
208.3201.5
167.7170.3168.3157.2
168.0192.7210.8
3ntory valuatioadjustments
ith inventorynt and withouimption adjust
Profits
86.6100.6125.6136.7132.1166.3194.7229.1252.7234.6227.0174.2
227.7217.2
173.2178.8177.3167.5
169.7203.3229.1
n and capital
valuationt capitalment
Inventoryvaluation
adjustment
-4.6-6.6
-20.0-40.0-11.6-14.7-16.2-24.0-43.1-42.9-23.6-8.4
-19.4-15.7
-5.5-8.5-9.0
-10.3
-1.7-10.6-18.3
consumption
Capitalconsump-
adjustment
1.32.72.7
-1.8-10.1
13.5-11.3-12.7-14.8-16.3-11.0-1.1
-10.7-9.5
-5.6-3.5
.14.7
13.925.637.6
Netinterest
46.551.260.276.184.587.2
102.5121.7153.8192.6249.9261.1
268.0265.3
265.0268.3256.4254.7
248.3243.8246.1
1 Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.) Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES[Billions of dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Period
197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982
1981: IIIIV
1982: IIIIllIV
1983: IIIIll r
Totalpersonalconsump-
tionexpendi-
tures
672.2737.1812.0888.1976.4
1,084.31,204.41,346.51,507.21,668.11,857.21,991.9
1,886.11,904.1
1,938.91,972.82,008.82,046.9
2,073.02,147.02,181.1
Totaldurablegoods
97.2111.1123.3121.5132.2156.8178.2200.2213.4214.7236.1244.5
243.5230.8
239.4242.9243.4252.1
258.5277.7282.8
Durabh
Motorvehicles
andparts
45.452.457.150.455.872.684.895.796.690.7
101.6109.9
107.796.5
106.4107.6109.4116.1
118.4133.9135.6
3 goods
Furni-ture andhouse-hold
equip-ment
37.241.747.150.653.559.165.772.881.886.393.393.5
93.893.4
91.793.993.594.9
97.3100.8102.9
Other
14.616.919.220.522.925.227.731.735.137.741.241.1
42.040.9
41.341.440.541.0
42.943.144.3
Totalnondur-
ablegoods
278.8300.6333.4373.4407.3441.7478.8528.2600.0668.8733.9761.0
741.1747.7
749.7754.7766.6773.0
777.1799.6814.8
No
Food
144.2154.9172.1193.7213.6230.6249.8275.9311.6345.1375.9396.9
378.9383.2
388.1394.7400.4404.5
411.7419.6426.4
adurable go
Clothingand
shoes
50.655.461.464.869.675.382.692.499.1
104.6115.3119.0
116.8117.2
118.4119.0119.2119.6
120.0126.4125.1
ods
Gasolineand oil
23.925.428.636.640.444.048.151.266.684.894.691.5
95.195.6
94.089.691.391.1
87.390.393.1
Other
60.164.971.278.283.791.998.2
108.8122.8134.3148.1153.5
150.2151.7
149.2151.5155.6157.9
158.1163.3170.2
Services
296.2325.3355.2393.2437.0485.7547.4618.0693.7784.5887.1986.4
901.5925.6
949.7975.2998.9
1,021.8
1,037.41,069.71,083.5
Retail salpasseng
(millions
Domes-tics
8.79.39.67.47.08.59.09.28.26.66.25.8
6.85.1
5.85.75.66.0
6.16.97.0
es of newer carsof units)
Imports
1.61.61.81.41.61.52.12.02.32.42.32.2
2.22.2
2.22.02.22.5
2.32.32.3
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOMEPersonal income increased $20.4 billion (annual rate) in November following a rise of $30.3 billion in October.
Wages and salaries rose $4.2 billion in November compared to a rise of $18.5 billion in October. The larger
increase in October was partly due to the telephone strike, which had reduced payrolls by about $5 billion in both
August and September.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)3,200
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)3,2002,800
1983
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Period
1973197419751976197719781979198019811982
1982: NovDec
1983: JanFebMarAprMayJuneJuly r.Aug r
Septr
Oct r
Nov*
Totalpersonalincome
1,065.21,168.61,265.01,391.21,540.41,732.71,951.22,165.32,435.02,578.6
2,633.12,645.0
2,652.62,650.52,670.12,689.02,719.32,732.62,747.62,756.42,781.62,811.92,832.3
salary
ments *
702.7765.7806.4889.9983.2
1,106.31,237.61,356.71,493.21,568.1
1,583.11,591.8
1,608.91,606.31,616.81,632.11,652.21,660.91,673,51,680.51,691.81,710.31,714.5
Other labor
48.855.864.575.989.4
102.5114.9128.0143.5156.6
160.4161.2
162.6164.2166.0168.1170.1172.2174.3176.3178.4180.6182.6
Proprietors
Farm
32.826.524.619.119.126.331.921.830.521.5
28.126.1
22.921.322.322.121.419.416.614.915.021.229.4
' income 3
Nonfarm
61.062.265.475.084.892.2
100.295.689.787.4
89.092.5
96.797.8
100.8103.1106.6109.0109.9110.9113.0113.3114.1
Rentalincome ofpersons 4
22.623.523.023.524.826.627.931.541.449.9
52.951.0
53.854.154.354.654.855.055.350.855.856.056.2
Personaldividendincome
26.529.129.936.539.645.350.856.862.866.4
68.068.3
68.768.968.969.069.469.570.270.971.672.372.9
Personalinterestincome
93.9112.4123.2132.5152.8179.4218.7266.0341.3366.2
363.3364.3
360.0356.0355.7355.0356.9359.4364.4370.2375.2378.1380.4
Transferpay-
ments 5
119.5141.2178.3194.3207.9223.8250.3297.6337.2374.5
401.0403.0
395.4398.1402.0402.7406.7406.7403.5402.2401.9402.2404.6
Less:Personal
contributionsfor socialinsurance
42.647.950.455.561.169.881.188.7
104.6112.0
112.7113.1
116.6116.2116.8117.6118.8119.5120.1120.3121.1122.1122.4
Nonfarmpersonalincome 6
1,023.71,131.81,229.11,359.31,506.51,689.71,899.32,119.52,377.02,527.6
2,575.52,589.4
2,600.22,599.72,618.42,637.52,668.52,683.82,701.42,711.82,736.72,760.72,772.8
1 The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation ofemployees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess ofwage accruals over wage disbursements.
2 Consists of employer contributions to private pension, health, and welfare funds; workmen'scompensation; directors' fees; and a few other minor items.
3 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.
4 With capital consumption adjustment.5 Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments.6 Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other labor income,
and agricultural net interest.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOMEReal per capita disposable income rose again in the third quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)2,600 FT2,400
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)2,6002,4002,200
2,000
1,800
1,600
,400
1,200
1,000
800
DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)11,00010,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,0001975 1983
3,000
* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATESSOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Period
197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982
1981: IIIIV
1982: IIIIllIV
1983: IIIIII'....
Personalincome
868.4951.4
1,065.21,168.61,265.01,391.21,540.41,732.71,951.22,165.32,435.02,578.6
2,490.92,516.6
2,528.12,563.22,591.32,632.0
2,657.72,713.62,761.9
Less:Personaltax andnontax
payments
B
116.7141.0150.7170.2168.9196.8226.4258.7301.0336.5387.4402.1
398.9396.1
400.2404.2399.8404.1
401.8412.6400.1
Equals:Disposablepersonalincome
illions of dol
751.8810.3914.5998.3
1,096.11,194.41,314.01,474.01,650.21,828.92,047.62,176.5
2,092.02,120.5
2,127.92,159.02,191.52,227.8
2,255.92,301.02,361.7
Less:Personaloutlays *
ars
691.1757.7835.5913.2
1,001.81,111.91,236.01,384.61,553.51,718.71,912.42,051.1
Seas(
1,942.31,961.5
1,997.02,031.92,068.42,107.0
2,134.22,209.52,245.9
Equals:Personal
saving
60.752.679.085.194.382.578.089.496.7
110.2135.3125.4
mally adju
149.7159.0
130.8127.1123.0120.8
121.791.5
115.8
Per cdisposable
incc
Currentdollars
3,6203,8604,3154,6675,0755,4775,9656,6217,3318,0328,9069,377
sted annual
9,0889,188
9,1999,3159,4309,562
9,6619,834
10,069
apitapersonal
me
1972dollars
Do
3,7523,8604,0804,0094,0514,1584,2804,4414,5124,4874,5874,567
rates
4,6404,612
4,5624,5744,5584,576
4,5994,6294,690
Per capitaconsurexpent
Currentdollars
lars
3,2373,5113,8314,1524,5214,9725,4686,0486,6957,3268,0788,581
8,1948,250
8,3828,5118,6448,785
8,8789,1769,299
i personalnptioniitures
1972dollars
3,3553,5113,6233,5663,6093,7743,9244,0574,1214,0924,1624,180
4,1834,141
4,1564,1804,1784,204
4,2264,3194,331
Percentchange inreal percapita
disposablepersonalincome
Per
2.42.95.7
-1.71.02.62.93.81.6
-.62.2
-.4
7.8-2.4
-4.31.1
-1.41.6
2.02.65.4
Saving aspercent ofdisposablepersonalincome
cent
8.16.58.68.58.66.95.96.15.96.06.65.8
7.27.5
6.15.95.65.4
5.44.04.9
Popula-tion
(thou-sands) 2
207,692209,924211,939213,898215,981218,086220,289222,629225,106227,694229,916232,118
230,187230,797
231,304231,790232,387232,990
233,501233,984234,564
1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers to business, and person-al transfer payments to foreigners (net).
2 Includes Armed Forces abroad. Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averagesfor the period.
Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census).
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
FARM INCOMEIn the third quarter, according to current estimates, gross farm income fell $0.9 billion (annual rate) and net farmincome fell $1.1 billion.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)200
160
120
100
80
60
40
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* [RATIO SCALE)200
160
120
100
80
60
40NET FARM INCOME-
20 20I
V
10 J I I 101975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981
* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
1982 1983
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
19751976197719781979198019811982
1981: IIImIV
1982: IIIIllIV
1983: III111 P
Total 1
100.6102.9108.7127.2150.4150.1167.1162.2
161.2165.1172.2169.7
168.4158.5155.9165.8
161.0156.7155.8
(
Gas
Total
88.995.496.2
112.9131.8140.5142.3144.6
141.9138.5145.7143.0
147.6142.0142.3146.3
144.0141.3145.7
In
xross farm inconw
h marketing rece
Livestock andproducts
43.146.347.659.268.667.869.270.2
69.269.570.168.0
70.771.070.268.9
71.570.870.1
come of farm ope
ipts
Crops
45.849.048.653.763.272.773.174.4
72.769.075.675.0
76.971.072.177.4
72.570.575.6
rators from farmi
Value ofinventorychanges 2
3.4-1.5
1.1.8
4.9-5.3
7.6-1.9
3.110.19.57.9
2.0-1.7
3.5-4.2
-3.5-6.3
-12.3
ng
Productionexpenses
75.082.788.999.5
118.1128.6137.0140.1
135.1136.5137.8138.6
141.0141.5140.3137.6
136.6135.1135.3
Net fara
Currentdollars
25.620.119.827.732.321.530.122.1
26.128.634.431.1
27.417.015.628.2
24.421.620.5
i income
1967 dollars 3
15.911.810.914.214.88.7
11.07.6
9.910.712.511.0
9.75.95.39.6
8.37.36.8
1 Cash marketing receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments, other farm cashincome, and nonmoney income furnished by farms.
2 Physical changes in end-of-year inventory of crop and livestock commodities valued at averageprices during the year.
3 Income in current dollars divided by the consumer price index (Department of Labor).
Source: Department of Agriculture, except as noted.
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
CORPORATE PROFITSIn the third quarter, according to revised estimates, corporate profits before tax rose $25.8 billion (annual rate)from their second quarter level and after-tax profits rose $16.9 billion.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS3201
280
240
200
160
120
80
40
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS320
PROFITS BEFORE TAX
I I I
1975 1976 1977
PROFITS AFTER TAX
\
I I
1978
TAX LIABILITY
1979
—M.LUNDISTRIBUTED PROFITS
I I I I
280
240
200
160
120
80
40
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
1980 1981 1982 1983
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual ratesl
Period
1971197219731974197519761977....19781979198019811982
1981: HIIV
1982: IIIIllIV
1983: IIIIIIr
Pn
Total 2
82.094.0
105.696.7
120.6151.6178.5205.1209.6191.7203.3165.9
208.3201.5
167.7170.3168.3157.2
168.0192.7210.8
)fits (before t
Total
74.985.392.080.4
107.6137.4163.4185.4179.0161.9179.7144.1
186.5174.7
147.0148.5147.6133.1
147.8172.2187.4
ax) with inve
Doi
Financial
14.115.315.915.011.817.123.131.030.326.920.320.9
18.818.1
15.520.422.225.5
29.833.831.9
ntory valuati
nestic industi
Total 3
60.870.076.065.495.8
120.3140.3154.4148.6134.9159.4123.2
167.7156.5
131.5128.1125.4107.6
118.0138.4155.5
on adjustmen
-ies
Nonfinancial
Manufac-turing
34.140.745.539.052.669.278.386.985.672.986.759.0
93.376.9
60.961.465.548.3
53.768.178.2
t 1
WKrkla
sale andretailtrade
11.713.413.912.521.322.426.626.927.123.632.827.6
33.337.8
30.227.425.227.5
27.833.936.7
Profitsbefore tax
86.6100.6125.6136.7132.1166.3194.7229.1252.7234.6227.0174.2
227.7217.2
173,2178.8177.3167.5
169.7203.3229.1
Taxliability
37.541.649.051.650.663.872.783.287.684.882.859.2
83.775.6
60.361.460.854.0
61.576.084.9
P
Total
49.058.976.685.181.5
102.5122.0145.9165.1149.8144.1115.1
144.0141.7
112.9117.4116.5113.5
108.2127.2144.1
rofits after ta
Dividends
22.924.427.029.930.837.440.847.052.758.6.64.768.7
66.467.3
67.767.868.870.4
71.472.073.7
X
Undistrib-uted
profits
26.134.549.655.250.765.181.298.9
112.491.279.546.4
77.674.4
45.249.547.743.1
36.755.270.4
Inventoryvaluation
adjustment
-4.6-6.6
-20.0-40.0-11.6-14.7-16.2-24.0-43.1-42.9-23.6-8.4
-19.4-15.7
-5.5-8.5-9.0
-10.3
-1.7-10.6-18.3
1 See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.2 Includes rest of the world, not shown separately.
3 Includes industries not shown separately.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENTAccording to revised estimates for the third quarter, business fixed investment rose $14.7 billion (annual rate) andresidential investment outlays rose $13.1 billion. There was an $8.5 billion increase in inventories following adecrease of $14.5 billion in the second quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS600
CAA
AOD
Qfjfl
9ftfi
inn
-100
_
_
- ,_^
•«• «.«••"""*"*'
«.,,— m — —^
I 1 1
1975
OURCE: DEPARTMEN
^•»•»»*"
• — — ""*
^^ .„
„ -^^
1 1 1
1976
OF COMMERCE
GR(
/~^
REFIXED
^ ******
1 1 1
1977
SEASON/
DSS PRIVATE DINVESTMEh
V,S~~^
s^
****
5IDENTIALINVESTMENT
\
1 1 1
1978
ULY ADJUSTED ANNU
OMESTIC41
^ — -NONRESIDEtFIXED INVEST
\\^**
CHANIN
1 1 1
1979
At RATES
r^ ANlTIAL^MENT
*-»^ ~~~*
^
GE IN BUSINESVENTORIES
\
l l l1980
|-"""~
S
r-~-'""N
l l I1981
h-AVI
****•«*•»
—
1 1 11982
COUNCIL OF
/-^
* — — **
—
^
1 1 1
1983
ECONOMIC ADVISERS
600
K.r\r\
400
OAA
o/vj
i /•»/-)
0'
-100
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Period
197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982
1981: IIIIV
1982: IIIIllIV
1983: III111 "
vjrossprivate
domesticinvestment
166.4195.0229.8228.7206.1257.9324.1386.6423.0401.9474.9414.5
495.8476.2
422.9432.5425.3377.4
404.1450.1501.1
Nonresic
Total
107.9121.0143.3156.6157.7174.1205.2248.9290.2308.8352.2348.3
360.6367.6
361.3352.7342.3337.0
332.1336.3351.0
ential fixed im
Structures
40.544.151.055.955.458.864.478.798.3
110.9133.4141.9
137.0145.5
144.7144.2140.0138.6
132.9127.4130.9
vestment
Producers'durable
equipment
67.476.992.3
100.7102.3115.3140.8170.2191.9197.9218.8206.4
223.6222.1
216.5208.5202.2198.4
199.3208.8220.2
Total
50.963.868.057.955.372.095.8
111.2118.6102.9104.390.8
101.794.3
87.391.087.996.8
111.3128.4141.5
Eesidential fix
Nonfarmstructures
48.961.565.654.852.468.892.0
107.0114.098.199.886.0
97.089.5
83.286.183.491.2
106.7123.3136.3
ed investment
Farmstructures
0.7.7.7
1.31.01.11.51.71.71.81.31.5
1.51.6
.91.61.32.3
1.31.51.6
Producersdurable
equipment
1.31.51.71.81.92.12.32.52.93.03.23.2
3.23.3
3.23.33.33.3
3.43.53.6
Change iimven
Total
7.710.218.514.1
-6.911.823.026.514.39.8
18.524.5
33.614.3
25.7-11.2
4.9-56.4
-39.414.58.5
i business;ones
Nonfarm
6.49.6
15.216.0
-10.513.921.925.48.6
-4.510.9
-23.1
24.16.2
-27.68.8
-2.3-53.7
-39.0-10.3
18.4
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT—NONFARMBUSINESSAccording to the Commerce Department October-November survey, nonfarm business spending for new plant andequipment for the year 1983 is expected to be 4.2 percent below the 1982 level. Spending in 1982 was 1.6percent below the 1981 level.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)500
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)500SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
400
300
200
400
300
200
TOTAL NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT\
100
80
60
40
^**^"^ NONMANUINONMANUFACTUR1NG
—7'MANUFACTURING
100
80
60
40
I I I I I I 1 I I I I i I I'-L/
I I I
1976 1977
_!/ SEE FOOTNOTE BELOW
SOURCE.- DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Period
197519761977197819791980198119821983 4
1982: HIIV
1983: InIIIr.....IV4
1984: I 4
II4
Total
157.71171.45198.08231.24270.46295.63321.49316.43303.20
313.76303.18
293.03293.46304.70321.60
323.07325.42
Plant
65.2371.1280.1992.63
105.75117.57133.35134.58
134.43127.32
125.40125.60130.59
Equip-ment
92.48100.33117.89138.60164.68178.06188.14181.86
179.33175.86
167.62167.86174.12
M
Total
54.9259.9569.2279.7298.68
115.81126.79119.68111.18
118.26110.23
109.86108.79111.12114.97
119.00120.96
anufacturin
Durablegoods
26.3328.4734.0440.4851.0758.9161.8456.4451.45
56.6150.51
50.7448.4853.0653.52
57.1858.09
g
Nondur-able
goods
28.5931.4735.1839.2947.6156.9064.9563.2359.74
61.6559.72
59.1260.3158.0661.45
61.8162.86
Plan
Total
102.79111.50128.87151.52171.77179.81194.70196.75192.01
195.51192.95
183.17184.67193.59206.62
204.08204.47
t and equip]
Mining
6.107.449.24
10.2111.3813.5116.8615.4512.00
14.5713.41
12.0310.9111.9313.14
12.2513.68
ment
Nonmanu
Trans-portation
8.688.899.40
10.6812.3512.0912.0511.9511.25
11.2912.33
11.0410.8811.0012.10
10.7811.42
facturing
Publicutilities
19.9822.3726.7929.9533.9635.4438.4041.9542.62
43.0243.00
41.6141.4842.2245.17
41.8242.30
Tradeand
serv-ices *
46.2349.3056.5468.6679.2681.7986.3386.9588.02
86.8884.36
82.3885.8591.0692.79
96.9895.03
Commu-nication
andother2
21.8023.5126.9032.0234.8336.9941.0640.4638.11
39.7539.84
36.1135.5437.3843.42
42.2542.03
Starts ofplant and
equip-ment
projects,manufac-turing 3
56.5959.3977.7388.41
113.50123.58135.61104.35
25.3123.62
23.3527.7129.98
1 Wholesale and retail trade; finance, insurance, and real estate; and personal, business, and pro-fessional services.
2 "Other" consists of construction; social services and membership organizations; and forestry,fisheries, and agricultural services.
3 Starts are estimated by adding changes in carryover to expenditures during given period.4 Planned capital expenditures as reported by business in late October and November 1983, cor-
rected for biases.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
10
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGESSTATUS OF THE LABOR FORCESeasonally adjusted civilian employment rose 743,000 in November and unemployment fell 522,000.
MILLIONS OF PERSONS* MILLIONS OF PERSONS*
*16 Y E A R S OF AGE AND OVEkSOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted]
Period
19771978 4
1979198019811982
1982: NovDec
1983: JanFebMarAprMayJuneJulyAugSept...r.OctNov
Noninstitu-tional
populationincludingresidentArmedForces
160,689163,541166,460169,349171,775173,939
Unadju
174,718174,864
175,021175,169175,320175,465175,622175,793175,970176,122176,297176,474176,636
Resi-dent
ArmedForces
,656,631,597,604,645,668
sted
1,6601,665
1,6671,6641,6641,6711,6691,6681,6641,6821,6951,6951,685
Total laborforce
includingresidentArmedForces
100,665103,882106,559108,544110,315111,872
112,702112,794
112,215112,217112,148112,457112,418113,600113,539113,943114,063113,510113,721
Totalemploy-
mentincludingresidentArmedForces
93,67397,679
100,421100,907102,042101,194
100,796100,758
100,770100,727100,767101,129101,226102,454102,949103,245103,640103,623104,356
J
Civilianlabor force
99,009102,251104,962106,940108,670110,204
111,042111,129
110,548110,553110,484110,786110,749111,932111,875112,261112,368111,815112,036
Total
92,01796,04898,82499,303
100,39799,526
99,13699,093
99,10399,06399,10399,45899,557
100,786101,285101,563101,945101,928102,671
Civilian er
Agricul-tural
3,2833,3873,3473,3643,3683,401
Seasonally
3,4663,411
3,4123,3933,3753,3713,3673,5223,5273,4893,2903,2023,232
nployment
Nonag
Total
88,73492,66195,47795,93897,03096,125
Y adjusted
95,67095,682
95,69195,67095,72996,08896,19097,26497,75898,07498,65598,72699,440
ricultural
Part-timefor
economicreasons l
3,3693,2983,3734,0644,4995,852
6,4116,425
6,8456,4816,2026,0825,9285,7295,6365,7896,1065,6705,893
Unempk
Total
6,9916,2026,1377,6378,273
10,678
11,90612,036
11,44611,49011,38111,32811,19211,14610,59010,69910,4239,8869,364
)yment
15weeks
andover
1,9421,4141,2411,8712,2853,485
4,5244,732
4,6344,6184,6154,3564,5174,5894,4174,0203,8503,6133,527
Laborparticijrate (pe
Total 2
62.663.564.064.164.264.3
64.564.5
64.164.164.064.164.064.664.564.764.764.364.4
forcemtionrcent)
Civil-ian 3
62.363.263.763.863.964.0
64.264.2
63.863.763.663.763.764.364.264.464.464.064.0
1 Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to find full-time work, etc.
2 Total labor force as percent of noninstitutional population (both including resident ArmedForeesK
3 Civilian labor force as percent of civilian noninstitutional population.
28-861 0 - 8 3 - 2
4 Data beginning 1978 not strictly comparable with earlier data because of revisions in the house-hold survey, which added about 250,000 to labor force and to employment.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
11
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATESThe seasonally adjusted overall unemployment rate, which includes resident Armed Forces in the labor force, fell toi
8.2 percent in November from 8.7 percent in October. The unemployment rate for all civilian workers fell to 8.4
percent in November from 8.8 percent in October.
PER
25
20
15
10
5
0
CENT* (SEASO
'VV A~WV
'"•"'•.fiiin ' "
i 1 1 1 1 1 i 1 i 1 11979
* UNEMPLOYMENT ASSOURCE: DEPARTMEN
NALLY ADJUS
*s***\t1
•+9
ALL C
/ •^-^X""",,,,,/
Vfrt*
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 11980
PERCENT OF CIVILIAT OF LABOR
TED)
Ah
^
IVILIAN
" " L/"*""
'*••«...«"»„
/
WHIT
1 I I l I19
M LABOR F
BLACK4D OTh
\
<•'!
***'t
WORK
0^ <?**
E
M i l l81
ORCE IN G
+sER ,'
V"*
^*ltRsX,J
r/"'-'
I I 1 I ! I 1 I I I i
1982
ROUP SPECIFIED.
i -
* t«%
\%
%
'"•••••xX'«„\
I I I I I I ! I I I I1983
PER
25
20
15
10
5
0
CENT*
^*%
mi — i »_,,_
'««!«
I I I 1 1
19
(SEASO
'*V¥
lAr r
,,!«*'*
1 i 1 | 1
79
NALLY ADJUS
f'Vu1
WOMEhAN
st^vF"j- _^^ ''*/
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11980
TED)
^t
/^ —
r».A/TEENAGERS
(16-19)
20 YEARSD OVER
, ^/^
MEN 20 >AND O
I 1 1 1 I I I 1 I 1 11981
* 1
/*
^&fEARSVER
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11982
COUNCIL OF E
i /%A«% isi1
^
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11983
CONOMIC ADVISERS
[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Period
197719781979198019811982
1982: Nov...Dec...
1983: Jan...Feb ...Mar...Apr ...May...June..July ..Aug...Sept ..Oct....Nov...
Unem-ploymentrate, allwork-ers 1
6.96.05.8-7.07.59.5
10.610.7
10.210.210.110.110.09.89.39.49.18.78.2
Allcivilianwork-
ers
7.16.15.87.17.69.7
10.710.8
10.410.410.310.210.110.09.59.59.38.88.4
B
Men20 yearsand over
5.24.34.25.96.38.8
10.010.1
9.69.99.69.89.69.08.88.88.78.27.8
y sex and a
Women20 years
andover
7.06.05.76.46.88.3
9.09.2
9.08.98.88.48.58.67.98.07.87.47.1
Unemp]
ge
Bothsexes16-19years
17.816.416.117.819.623.2
24.224.5
22.722.223.523.423.023.622.823.021.821.619.9
oyment ra
White
6.25.25.16.36.78.6
9.69.7
9.19.29.08.98.98.68.28.28.17.77.3
te (percen
By race
Black ai
Total
13.111.911.313.114.217.3
18.518.8
19.018.018.518.818.618.917.918.117.216.615.8
t of civilia
id other
Black
14.012.812.314.315.618.9
20.220.8
20.819.719.920.820.620.619.520.019.018.117.3
n labor force
Experi-enced
wage andsalary
workers
6.65.65.56.97.39.3
10.510.7
10.110.110.19.99.89.49.09.18.88.58.0
in group)
By s
Marriedmen,
spousepresent
3.62.82.84.24.36.5
7.67.8
7.17.27.17.17.06.66.16.36.15.85.5
elected grou]
Womenwho
maintainfamilies
9.48.58.39.2
10.411.7
12.513.2
13.213.013.513.212.912.811.611.612.211.110.3
)S
Full-time
workers
6.65.65.36.97.39.6
10.610.8
10.310.410.310.29.99.79.49.49.28.78.2
Part-time
workers
9.99.08.88.89.4
10.5
11.311.1
10.610.110.510.611.012.110.210.110.09.89.6
Laborforce
time lost(per-
cent) 2
7.66.56.37.98.5
11.0
12.412.7
11.712.011.811.411.510.810.410.610.610.09.8
1 Unemployed as percent of total labor force including resident Armed Forces.2 Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part time for economic reasons as per-
cent of potentially available labor force hours.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
12
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENTINSURANCE PROGRAMSm November, the percentage of unemployed persons who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks fell, thepercentage out of work for 5-14 weeks was unchanged, and the percentages out of work for 15-26 weeks andfor more than 27 weeks rose. Both measures of average duration of unemployment—the mean and the median—were again about unchanged at 20.2 and 9.4 weeks, respectively.
PERCENT DISTRIBUTION
70DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT
PERCENT DISTRIBUTION*70
20
10 -
60
50
40
30
20
1979
* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
1983 1979
REENTRANTS
\S-
1980 1981
\
REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT
• >*%•*..\s
NEW ENTRANTS
JOB LEAVERS
i i i i i I i i i i1982 1983
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Period
1978197919801981 .....1982
1982: NovDec
1983: JanFebMarApr..MayJuneJulyAugSeptOctNov
Unemploy-ment
(thousands)
6,2026,1377,6378,273
10,678
11,90612,036
11,44611,49011,38111,32811,19211,14610,59010,69910,4239,8869,364
P
Lessthan
5weeks
46.248.143.141.736.4
32.932.9
30.832.630.732.131.932.832.734.236.235.634.8
Dur
srcent dis
5-14weeks
31.031.732.330.731.0
29.528.3
28.927.128.128.527.026.126.128.326.927.827.8
ation of i
tribution
15-26weeks
12.411.513.813.616.0
18.217.4
16.816.816.715.015.714.717.114.712.913.814.5
memployi
i
27 'weeks
andover
10.48.7
10.714.016.6
19.421.3
23.523.524.524.425.326.424.222.924.022.822.9
ment
Numbe
Aver-age
(mean)
11.910.811.913.715.6
17.318.0
19.419.019.119.020.422.021.719.920.220.120.2
r of
Medi-an
5.95.46.56.98.7
10.010.1
11.59.6
10.311.312.311.89.98.99.19.39.4
Re
Joblosers
41.742.951.751.658.7
61.660.6
59.160.260.459.760.558.458.557.957.355.954.9
ason for \percent d
Jobleav-ers
14.114.311.711.27.9
6.66.9
7.47.58.07.27.27.07.07.28.39.09.4
inemployistributio
Reen-trants
29.929.425.225.422.3
21.321.8
23.122.021.522.021.121.722.923.622.524.023.6
ment:n 1
Newentrants
14.313.311.411.911.1
10.410.7
10.410.310.211.011.212.911.611.311.911.112.1
Statprogra
Insuredunem-
ployment
W
2,3592,4343,3503,0474,057
4,6354,428
3,9413,9073,8943,8323,5863,3293,1102,9912,896
r 2,8482,799
eims
Initialclaims
eekly av«
346388488460583
618546
509485493484458411384414393403405
Insuredunem-
ployment,all
regularprograms(unadjust-
ed)2
jrage, thousa
2,6452,5923,8373,4104,590
4,6355,074
5,4595,4375,1344,6423,9473,4813,2752,9172,5802,478
opecia
ploymentbenefitclaims(unad-
justed) 3
nds
897708
936953691
1,1171,4451,086
849737655522901
1 Detail may not add to 100 percent because of rounding.2 Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands), ex-service-
men (UCX), Federal (UCFE), and railroad (RR) programs. Also includes Federal and State ex-tended benefit programs. Does not include Federal supplemental compensation program.
3 Federal supplemental compensation program.
Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Adminis-tration).
13
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENTTotal nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose 370,000 in November.
MILLIONS OF PERSONS*
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
:?=*-— •
-
-
iiiiiliuii1979
1 — iALLNES
GOODS-IND
"^ 'IIllllllllll
1980
r-hONAGRICUlJABLISHMEh
SERVICE-PFINDUS
PRODUCINGUSTRIES
A..-.JMll l l lHI l
1981
r iTURALJTS
ODUCINGJRIES
Illllllllll1982
—— * "
-
-
-
Illllllllll1983
MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE)22
20
18
16
14
22
20
18
WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE
l l l l t l l lHI
SERVICES
GOVERNMENT
.A.I l l l l l l l l l l I l l l l l l l l l l iiiiiliini
MANUFACTURING
CONSTRUCTION
1979Mlll l lHIl IlllillUII
'SEASONALLY ADJUSTEDSOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
1980 1981 1982 1983
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Thousands of wage and salary workers; * seasonally adjusted]
Period
197719781979198019811982
1982: NovDec
1983: JanFebMarAprMayJuneJuly......AugSept r....Get r
Nov "....
rri f Oilotainonagri-
employ-ment
82,47186,69789,82390,40691,15689,596
88,78588,665
88,88588,74688,81489,09089,42189,84490,152
r 89,74890,85191,05591,425
Total 2
24,34625,58526,46125,65825,49723,907
23,13123,061
23,18623,04923,03023,15923,34723,51823,72423,83023,93524,16424,309
Goods-
Con-struction
3,8514,2294,4634,3464,1883,911
3,8433,815
3,9053,7903,7573,7863,8603,9333,9744,0144,0384,0614,099
jroducing in<
IV!
Total
19,68220,50521,04020,28520,17018,853
18,22218,193
18,24418,24518,26718,37618,49318,58218,73318,79318,87119,06019,174
ustries
anufacturing
Durablegoods
11,59712,27412,76012,18712,10911,100
10,57710,559
10,59410,60810,61710,68910,78810,84410,96111,02211,08111,23111,312
Nondur-able
goods
8,0868,2318,2808,0988,0617,753
7,6457,634
7,6507,6377,6507,6877,7057,7387,7727,7717,7907,8297,862
Total
58,12561,11363,36364,74865,65965,689
65,65465,604
65,69965,69765,78465,93166,07466,32666,428
r 65,91866,91666,89167,116
Transpor-tation and
publicutilities
4,7134,9235,1365,1465,1655,081
5,0195,008
4,9794,9664,9634,9884,9934,9924,9844,3415,0315,0205,018
Service-p
Whole-sale and
retailtrade
18,51619,54220,19220,31020,54720,401
20,32020,256
20,35520,34320,35020,32920,35620,49420,52920,58020,61220,65620,665
roducing ind
Finance,insurance,and realestate
4,4674,7244,9755,1605,2985,340
5,3565,367
5,3745,3845,3915,4235,4355,4515,4655,4885,4995,5045,522
ustries
Services
15,30316,25217,11217,89018,61919,064
19,18719,215
19,23819,26219,35619,47819,54619,66819,77019,83519,91319,97220,121
Gover
Federal
2,7272,7532,7732,8662,7722,739
2,7462,747
2,7482,7422,7422,7382,7562,7422,738
r 2,7462,7782,7682,771
nment
Stateandlocal
12,39912,91913,17413,37513,25913,064
13,02613,011
13,00513,00012,98212,97512,98812,97912,94212,92813,08312,97113,019
1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments whoworked during or received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month.Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces.Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of thecivilian labor force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domesticservants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial dis-
putes, bad weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off; and which are based on a sampleof the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from em-ploying establishments.
« Includides mining, not shown separately.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
14
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS AND HOURLY EARNINGSPRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES
[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Period
197419751976197719781979198019811982
1982: NovDec
1983: JanFebMarAprMayJuneJulyAugSeptOct r
Novp
Totalprivate
nonagricul-tural l
36.536.136.136.035.835.735.335.234.8
34.734.8
35.134.534.834.935.135.135.035.035.235.335.2
\verage weeklyhours
Manufa
Total
40.039.540.140.340.440.239.739.838.9
39.039.0
39.739.239.540.140.040.140.240.340.840.640.5
cturing
Overtime
3.32.63.13.53.63.32.82.82.3
2.32.3
2.42.42.62.92.72.93.03.13.33.43.3
Average giearn
Totalprivate
nonagricul-tural l
$4.244.534.865.255.696.166.667.257.67
7.787.82
7.887.917.917.957.978.008.037.988.088.128.11
oss hourlyings
Manufactur-ing
$4.424.835.225.686.176.707.277.998.50
8.618.63
8.688.768.758.788.798.828.858.848.878.938.98
Adjuste
Ind1977 =
Currentdollars
80.086.792.9
100.0108.2116.8127.3138.9148.3
151.1151.9
152.7153.4153.4154.0154.6154.8155.2155.0155.9156.7156.7
d hourly earninnonagric
ex,= 100
1977dollars 3
98.397.699.0
100.0100.597.493.592.693.3
93.494.1
94.795.395.094.894.794.894.794.094.294.494.1
ys index — totalultural 2
Percent changearlie
Currentdollars
8.08.47.27.68.27.99.09.16.8
5.76.0
5.45.75.45.24.84.64.33.63.94.03.7
private
e from a yearr 4 5
1977 dollars
-2.8.7
1.41.0.5
-3.1-4.0-1.0
.8
1.12.0
1.82.41.61.21.42.12.11.21.21.4.8
AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGSPRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES
[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Period
197419751976197719781979198019811982 ,
1982: OctNovDec
1983: JanFebMarApr ,MayJuneJulyAugSeptr
Oct r
Nov"
Total ]nonagric
Current dollars
$154.76163.53175.45189.00203.70219.91235.10255.20266.92
269.27269.97272.14
276.59272.90275.27277.46279.75280.80281.05279.30284.42286.64285.47
Avera
privateultural 1
1977 dollars 3
$190.12184.16186.85189.00189.31183.41172.74170.13167.87
166.32166.96168.61
.171.48169.61170.45170.85171.42171.85171.37169.48171.85172.57171.56
£e gross weekly ea
Manufacturing
$176.80190.79209.32228.90249.27269.34288.62318.00330.65
333.76335.79336.57
344.60343.39345.63352.08351.60353.68355.77356.25361.90362.56363.69
rmngs
Construction
Current dollars
$249.25266.08283.73295.65318.69342.99367.78399.26426.45
427.25426.24437.18
461.35439.20438.00443.54441.19440.82440.89440.08448.50433.16431.34
Wholesale andretail trade
$119.02126.45133.79142.52153.64164.96176.46190.62198.10
200.65200.98203.19
202.57200.65202.88203.83205.76207.68207.67207.34207.97211.54211.54
Percent cha year
total private n<
Current dollars
6.45.77.37.77.88.06.98.54.6
3.43.44.4
6.83.14.34.74.64.94.83.76.06.45.7
ange fromearlier,magricultural 5
1977 dollars
-4.13.11.51.2.2
-3.15.8
-1.51.3
-1.6-1.1
.5
3.1.2.6.7
1.22.42.51.33.23.72.8
1 Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14.2 Adjusted for interindustry employment shifts and for overtime in manufacturing.3 Current dollar index (or earnings) divided by the consumer price index on a 1977 = 100 base.
Revised index for urban wage earners and clerical workers used beginning 1978.
4 Monthly changes based on indexes to two decimal places.5 Based on unadjusted data.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
15
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR
Period
1969
19701971197219731974
19751976197719781979
198019811982
1981: IIIIV
1982: IIIIllIV
1983: IIIIll
1969
19701971197219731974
19751976197719781979
198019811982
1981: IIIIV
1982: IIIIllIV
1983: IIIIll
Output pcallpe
Businesssector
85.5
86.289.292.494.792.5
94.597.6
100.0100.699.4
98.9101.3101.2
102.3101.2
101.1100.7101.1101.9
102.5103.8104.7
0.2
.83.63.52.6
-2.4
2.23.32.4
.6-1.2
-.52.4-.1
4.7-4.1
-.4-1.6
1.73.3
2.05.43.5
r hour ofrsons
Nonfarmbusinesssector
86.5
86.889.793.095.392.9
94.797.8
100.0100.699.1
98.4100.3100.2
101.199.9
100.099.9
100.4100.8
101.7103.3104.1
-0.3
.33.33.72.4
-2.5
2.03.22.2
.6-1.5
-.71.9
— .1
3.8-4.4
.1— .42.31.3
3.76.63.1
Outj
Businesssector
79.0
78.480.786.191.789.9
88.293.8
100.0105.5107.8
106.5109.8106.7
111.2108.9
107.2106.9106.6106.0
107.1110.2112.6
2.9
-.83.06.66.6
-2.0
-2.06.46.65.52.3
-1.33.1
-2.8
5.2-7.8
6.3-1.0-1.1-2.3
4.212.29.0
ut l
Nonfarmbusinesssector
78.8
78.080.385.891.789.8
87.893.7
100.0105.7108.0
106.5109.3106.3
110.5108.2
106.5106.7106.5105.4
106.7110.0112.6
Pei
2.9
-1.02.96.96.8
-2.0
-2.26.76.75.72.2
1.42.7
-2.8
4.3-8.3
-6.2.8
-.6-4.1
4.913.29.8
Hoursperse
Businesssector
19'
92.5
91.090.593.296.897.3
93.396.0
100.0104.9108.5
107.6108.4105.4
108.7107.7
106.0106.2105.4104.0
104.5106.2107.6
rcent chan
2.6
-1.65
3.03.9
.4
—4.13.04.14.93.5
-.8.7
-2.7
.5-3.9
-6.0.6
-2.7-5.4
2.16.55.3
of allms 2
Nonfarmbusiness
sector
f7 = 100; (
91.1
89.889.592.396.296.7
92.795.8
100.0105.0109.0
108.2109.0106.0
109.4108.2
106.5106.8106.0104.6
104.9106.5108.2
ge; quarte
3.2
-1.3.4
3.14.3
.5
4.13.44.45.03.7
.7
.72.7
.5-4.0
-6.21.2
-2.9-5.3
1.26.26.5
Compenshou
Businesssector
quarterly c
54.2
58.262.066.171.378.0
85.592.9
100.0108.6118.7
131.2143.9155.1
145.5148.2
151.6153.9156.5158.7
160.7162.1164.2
rly data al
7.0
7.36.66.58.09.4
9.68.67.78.69.4
10.59.77.7
9.67.5
9.46.46.75.7
5.43.55.3
ation perr 3
Nonfarmbusinesssector
ata seasoi
54.8
58.762.566.771.778.5
86.093.0
100.0108.6118.4
130.7143.5154.7
145.1147.7
151.3153.5156.1158.3
161.0162.7164.4
seasoiiall
6.5
7.06.66.77.69.4
9.68.17.58.69.0
10.49.87.8
9.67.6
10.05.87.25.8
6.84.34.2
Real comper h
Businesssector
tally adjus
89.6
90.892.895.797.395.9
96.398.9
100.0100.999.1
96.595.997.4
95.695.6
97.197.497.198.0
99.499.299.4
y adjusted
1.5
1.32.23.11.6
-1.4
.52.61.2.9
-1.7
-2.6-.61.5
-2.2.3
6.31.1
-1.03.7
5.8!J
.5
pensationour 4
Nonfarmbusinesssector
ted
90.6
91.593.596.697.896.4
96.899.0
100.0100.998.9
96.195.697.1
95.395.4
96.997.196.997.8
99.599.699.4
annual ra
1.1
1.02.23.31.3
-1.4
.42.2
. 1.0.9
-2.0
-2.8-.61.6
-2.1.3
6.8.5
-.63.7
7.2.1
-.5
UnitCO
Businesssector
63.4
67.569.571.575.384.4
90.595.1
100.0108.0119.5
132.7142.1153.3
142.3146.4
149.9152.9154.7155.6
156.9156.2156.9
tes
6.7
6.42.92.95.3
12.1
7.35.15.18.0
10.7
11.17.17.9
4.712.2
9.88.15.02.3
3.3-1.8
1.8
laborst
Nonfarmbusinesssector
63.4
67.669.771.775.384.5
90.895.1
100.0108.0119.5
132.8143.0154.4
143.5147.8
151.3153.6155.4157.1
158.3157.4157.9
6.8
6.63.12.85.0
12.2
7.54.85.28.0
10.7
11.17.77.9
5.612.6
9.96.24.74.4
3.0-2.1
1.1
Implieidefla
Businesssector
63.2
66.069.071.375.382.4
90.494.7
100.0107.5117.2
128.1140.1147.7
141.5144.3
145.5147.5148.5149.4
151.5152.7153.6
4.9
4.54.43.45.59.5
9.84.75.67.59.0
9.29.45.4
9.98.2
3.45.52.72.6
5.53.32.5
t pricetor 5
Nonfarmbusinesssector
63.3
66.369.371.374.081.6
90.094.6
100.0107.1116.5
128.1140.4148.6
141.8145.0
146.4148.3149.1150.5
152.4153.6154.6
4.7
4.84.53.03.8
10.2
10.35.15.77.18.8
10.09.65.8
10.09.5
3.75.42.23.7
5.33.22.5
1 Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1972 dollars.2 Hours of all persons in private industry engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors
and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data.3 Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private
benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the self-employed.
4 Hourly compensation divided by the consumer price index.
5 Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product.
NOTE.—Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector.Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may
differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
16
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITYINDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATIONIndustrial production rose 0.8 percent in November, the same as the revised October increase. The index forNovember was 15.9 percent above its year earlier level.
INDEX, 1967 = 100* (RATIO SCALE)
180
160
140
120
..TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
1979 1980 1981 1982
INDEX, 1967 = 100* (RATIO SCALE)
160
140
1983
180
160
140
120
_MANUFA
.*•--""*"-
-Vx—
|1M1|1979
CTURING F
\ r**
%-'
-\
Vu ml ii 1 1 1
1980
>RODUCTIC
NONDt*""~***\/
V
^ .
ADURABLE
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1981
>N
JRABLE
/•*«*^~-«.
^ "-N .\^
1 f i l l ll U 1 I
1982
^**
s*
^/yr
| 1 1 II 1 1 1 1 1 |
1983
180 -UTILITIES AND MINING PRODUCTION
1983
90
80
70
60
MANUFACTURING CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE
1979*SEASONALLY ADJUSTEDSOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE i
1982 1983
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Seasonally adjusted]
Period
1967 proportion
19731974197519761977197819791980198119821982: Nov
Dec1983: Jan
FebMarAprMayJuneJulyAug r
Septr
Octr
Nov"
Toindusprodu
Index,1967 = 100
100.00
129.8129.3117.8130.5138.2146.1152.5147.0151.0138.6134.9135.2137.4138.1140.0142.6144.4146.4149.7151.8153.9155.1156.3
taltrialction
Percentchange
from yearearlier
8.4-.48.9
10.85.95.74.4
-3.62.7
-8.2-7.8-5.7-2.3
3.4-1.2
1.73.75.67.99.7
12.114.315.9
Total
87.95
129.8129.4116.3130.3138.4146.8153.6146.7150.4137.6134.0134.5136.7138.2140.4143.1145.1147.4150.6152.8155.1156.3157.5
Industry prod
Manufacturing
Durable
51.98127.1125.7109.3122.3130.0139.7146.4136.7140.5124.7119.3119.9122.5123.9126.3129.1131.0133.2136.8138.8141.5142.8144.1
uction indexes
Nondurable
35. £7133.8134.6126.4141.8150.5156.9164.0161.2164.8156.2155.3155.6157.4159.0160.7163.3165.4167.8170.6172.9174.8175.9176.7
1967 = 100
Mining
6.36114.7115.3112.8114.2118.2124.0125.5132.7142.2126.1116.8118.4121.9115.6112.6111.6112.8112.6115.0116.1116.8118.7120.5
Utilities
5.69145.4143.7146.0151.7156.5161.4166.0168.3169.1168.7166.7164.2163.1162.0165.8169.3169.7169.8176.0179.3179.3177.9178.9
Capacity u
Manufa
FederalReserve
series
87.683.772.979.682.284.786.079.679.471.168.868.970.070.671.672.973.874.976.477.378.478.979.4
tilization rate
eturing
Com-merce
series 2
86.083.077.081.083.084.083.078.076.070.0
67.5
69.8
73.3
75.5
, percent *
Industrialmaterials(FederalReserveseries)
91.787.073.381.182.685.687.680.480.770.167.066.668.770.171.572.573.574.476.577.478.779.480.0
1 Output as percent of capacity.2 Annual data are averages of the four monthly indexes.
Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Department of Commerce(Bureau of Economic Analysis).
17
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS ANDSELECTED MANUFACTURES
[1967 = 100, seasonally adjusted]
Period
1967 proportion19731974197519761977197819791980198119821982: Nov
Dec1983: Jan
PebMarAprMayJuneJulyAug r
Sepf.Oetr
Nov"
Total
47.82124.4125.1118.2127.6135.9142.2147.2145.3149.5141.5138.3139.5140.1138.9139.9142.8144.5146.4149.0150.7152.1153.3154.2
Cc
Total
27.68131.5128.9124.0137.1145.3149.1150.8145.4147.9142.6141.3142.0143.6143.4144.3147.7150.4152.4154.8156.3157.4158.0158.3
F
nsumer goo
Durablegoods
7.89146.2135.3121.4141.9154.0159.2155.8136.7140.5129.2124.6125.9131.6134.4136.3140.5145.5149.2152.9154.2157.4156.7156.4
inal produc
.ds
Nondur-able
goods
19.79125.6126.3125.1135.2141.9145.1148.8148.9150.9148.0147.9148.4148.3147.0147.5150.5152.3153.6155.6157.1157.5158.5159.0
Prod
ts
Total
20.14114.5120.0110.2114.6123.0132.8142.2145.2151.8139.8134.2136.1135.3132.7133.8136.2136.5138.2141.0143.1144.9146.9148.7
ucts
Equipment
Business
12.63134.2142.4128.2135.4147.8160.3171.3173.2181.1157.9146.4148.1146.6142.7143.7146.9147.7150.2153.3156.6158.6161.1163.2
Defenseand
spaceequip-ment
7.5181.482.480.079.881.386.593.498.2
102.7109.4113.6115.9116.4116.1117.0118.2117.6118.0120.4120.2121.8123.1124.3
Interi
Total
12.89137.2135.3123.1137.2145.1154.1160.5151.9154.4143.3141.8141.5143.7145.3147.8150.8152.2154.5158.1162.2165.3165.7166.7
mediate pro
Con-structionsupplies
6.42139.8134.5116.3132.6140.6151.7158.0140.9141.9124.3123.4123.0127.0129.7133.1136.4138.4142.1145.8149.0151.1151.9152.4
ducts
n •
supplies
6.47134.6136.0129.7141.7149.5156.5163.1162.8166.7162.1160.1159.8160.3160.9162.3165.2166.0166.8170.4175.3179.3179.4
Materi-als
39.29133.9132.4115.5131.7138.6148.3156.4147.6151.6133.7128.4127.8132.0134.9137.6139.7141.7143.7147.8149.7152.3153.8155.3
Supple-mentarygroup:Energy
total
12.23128.3125.5125.5129.1132.9135.4137.9137.7137.4135.7133.3132.2132.4131.0131.9133.9133.8133.6138.5139.4139.0138.6139.3
[1967 = 100, seasonally adjusted]
Period
1967 proportion19731974197519761977197819791980198119821982: Nov
Dec1983: Jan
FebMarApr.MayJuneJulyAug r
Sept r
Oct r
Nov P
Primary
Total
6.57126.7123.196.4
109.7111.1119.9121.3102.3107.9
75.363.663.573.177.981.283.184.984.885.587.590.594.796.6
metals
Iron andsteel
4.21122.3119.895.8
104.8103.8113.2113.292.499.861.747.546.659.064.366.968.569.569.771.875.178.284.1
Fabricat-ed metalproducts
5.93124.7124.2109.9123.9131.0141.6148.5134.1136.4114.8107.0107.3107.6110.3113.9115.3115.5118.5122.7126.0127.4128.4129.3
Durable mi
Non-electrical
machinery
9.15133.7140.1125.1134.5143.6153.6163.7162.8171.2149.0139.6139.2138.0136.2138.6143.1146.1149.5154.2157.3158.2158.9160.8
mufactures
Electricalmachinery
8.05143.1143.8116.5134.8145.4159.4175.0172.8178.4169.3165.5165.5169.5168.9173.8177.2180.1182.4188.3189.2195.6197.9199.8
Transp<equip
Total
9.27118.3108.797.4
111.1122.2132.5135.4116.9116.1104.9100.2103.7106.3109.6110.1111.4113.8116.6119.7121.1124.7125.5126.3
>rtationment
Motorvehicles
and parts
4.50148.8128.2111.1142.0161.1169.9159.9119.0122.3109.8101.7108.8113.9123.0123.2125.5130.4136.2142.3144.3150.9150.9152.2
Lumberand
products
1.64126.0116.2107.6123.2131.2136.3136.9119.3119.1112.6119.1121.4130.0130.2128.7132.1135.8137.4141.3141.6142.3141.0
1*
Apparelproducts
3.31117.3114.3107.6125.7134.2134.2134.4127.0120.4
iondurable i
Printingand
publish-ing
4.72118.2118.2113.3122.5127.6131.5136.9139.6144.2144.1141.7142.8141.3144.0145.9145.7145.2147.4152.0157.8161.2162.1164.0
manufacture
Chemi-cals andproducts
7.74154.5159.4147.2170.9185.7197.4211.8207.1215.6196.1192.8195.9197.6202.3205.7208.5211.0214.7218.3220.3224.2227.3
s
Foods
8.75120.9124.0123.4133.0138.8142.7147.5149.6152.1151.1152.0152.8154.4153.0152.0153.7155.6157.7159.9159.3158.2
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Eeserve System.
18
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
NEW CONSTRUCTION[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Period
19751976197719781979198019811982
1982: GetNov.....Dee
1983: JanFebMarAprMayJuneJuly ,AugSept r
Get"Nov*
Total newconstructionexpenditures
135.9151.1173.8205.6230.4230.7239.4232.0
234.1243.7240.2
247.9243.0241.9247.4254.8264.3269.6
r 274.7276.4269.5
Total
95.1112.0135.7159.7181.6175.7186.1181.0
181.9190.5190.8
195.0194.3194.9199.5206.0214.7218.5221.4224.0218.1
Resit
Total1
I
46.560.581.093.499.087.386.674.8
76.481.286.0
89.793.696.1
102.0107.5113.5118.2120.2120.8117.1
Private
iential
New housing
lillions of dollars
34.447.365.775.878.663.162.751.9
Annual rates
53.655.858.6
63.468.872.377.382.287.992.794.895.091.0
Commercialand industrial
20.819.922.529.639.943.851.354.6
54.154.652.6
53.351.049.746.846.349.048.150.550.147.2
Other
27.831.532.236.742.744.748.251.5
51.454.752.2
52.049.849.050.752.252.252.250.753.253.7
Federal,State, and
local
40.939.138.245.948.855.053.351.1
52.253.249.4
52.948.747.047.948.749.651.1
r53.352.451.4
Constructio
Total valueindex
(1977 = 100)
66.079.0
100.0114.0122.0107.0
r 110.0111.0
105122131
127119131129148151137146143139145
n contracts 2
Commercialand industrial
floor space(millions ofsquare feet)
555592739977
1,059904906685
Annual rates
656608595
803693632652734785741783830856884
1 Includes nonhousekeeping residential construction and additions and alterations, not shown sep-arately.
2 F. W. Dodge series. Relates to 50 States beginning 1969 for value index and beginning 1971for floor space.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information SystemsCompany, F. W. Dodge Division.
NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES[Thousands of units or homes, except as noted]
Period
19751976197719781979198019811982
1982: NovDec
1983: JanFebMarAprMayJuneJulyAugSept r.Oetr
Nov*
Total
1,160.41,537.51,987.12,020.31,745.11,292.21,084.21,062.2
1,3611,280
1,6941,7841,6051,5061,8071,7361,8041,9041,6641,6501,756
Units started, bj
1 unit
892.21,162.41,450.91,433.31,194.1
852.2705.4662.6
868842
1,1261,1031,0081,0011,1831,1271,0321,1351,0311,0101,065
New private
f type of structun
2-4 units
64.085.9
121.7125.0122.0109.591.180.0
Seasonal
7979
10011710011796
12313511011793
161
housing units
3
5 or more units
204.3289.2414.4462.0429.0330.5287.7319.6
ly adjusted annu
414359
468564497388528486637659516547530
Unitsauthorized
939.21,296.21,690.01,800.51,551.81,190.6
985.51,000.5
al rates
1,2271,326
1,4471,4791,4671,5361,6351,7611,7821,6521,5061,6301,642
Unitscompleted
1,317.2,377.2,657.1,867.5,870.8,501.6,265.7
1,005.5
,053,035
,195,138,147,164,353,386
1,432r 1,729
1,4701,588
New pri\
Homes sold
549646819817709545436412
545529
611593611635665658
r594r551610660
rate homes
Homes forsale at end of
period *
313353402414
3 398336272251
246251
259262262266273284
r289r296299299
Vacancy rate
housing units(percent) 2
6.05.65.25.05.45.45.05.3
5.5
5.7
5.5
5.8
1 Seasonally adjusted.* Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Series beginning 1979 not strictly comparable
with earlier data.8 New series beginning March 1979.
NOTE.—Units authorized1973-77 are for 14,000 places.
1978 relate to 16,000 permit-issuing places; data for
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
19
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Manufacturing and TradeManufacturing and trade sales rose 0.5 percent in October and inventories rose $2.6 billion. According to theadvance survey, total retail sales rose 1.9 percent in November following an increase of 1.4 percent in October.
BILLI600
550
500
450
400'
350
300
250
200
150
100
ONS OF DOL
~ ^*^X^
^^
^+~*
-'^
—
illllllllll1979
'SEASONALLY ADJ
SOURCE: DEPARTM
LARS* (RATK
^— **S~~^
S**
Illllllllll1980
USTED
ENT OF COMMERC
D SCALE)
-"•"l
MANUF/TRADE
-^
MANUFANDTR
I IM l i l l l l !1981
E
•*V -"- «^rp=^ACTURING AINVENTORIE
T-ACTURINGADE SALES
Illllllllll1982
NDS
/**
_
Illllllllll1983
BULK160150140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
' 60
50
RATIC1.80
1.60
1.40
1.20
DNS OF DOL
_
>-
— ^^r^^-***^
-
t^
—
_
Illllllllll1979
D*
INVENTOF
-V^Ar i
Illllllllll
1979
LARS* (RATK
RET
r *~
+•'
*"'
Illllllllll1980
*Y-SALES R.
MANUFANL
j *^
M l l l l t l M I
1980 1
5 SCALE)
AIL INVENTC\ ^
^^-^
""'rRETAIL SALE
Illllllllll1981
ATIO
ACTURING) TRADE
\ /I
Illllllllll1981
)RIES
p,,, ^
,~'+~~''
S
Illllllllll1982
^\sO S
RETAILIllllllllll
1982
COUNCIL OF ECC
—
^^m
^^^
Jwf^-
'+ _
~~
_
Illllllllll
1983
* L
*~X7*-*
Illllllllll1983
3NOMIC ADVISERS
Period
19751976197719781979198019811982
1982: OctNovDec
1983: JanFebMarAprMayJuneJulyAugSept r
Octp
Nov"
Manufactitra(
Q 1 2
182,230204,277229,624260,307297,663327,284356,099344,179
336,905338,722338,391
345,337341,490348,009351,100363,925373,572372,434374,434380,583382,407
iring ande l
Inven-tories 3
288,375318,544351,036398,890450,736492,885526,152511,942
519,797513,888511,942
507,550507,665503,222504,796505,658505,521505,826510,430513,883516,465
Whol
Sales 2
46,62350,69455,98766,11778,68092,658
100,67395,363
91,80691,91291,389
94,79092,24592,94392,58697,529
100,479100,315100,644102,791105,044
esale
Inven-tories 3
Millions
56,69764,07872,31185,68598,394
112,341116,986118,790
120,162118,349118,790
117,564116,417116,591117,498115,855115,630115,745116,813118,410120,476
Total
of dollars,
49,01254,78160,43567,28675,04780,23587,29889,640
90,90592,49292,459
92,30891,16493,26395,44998,43199,17399,52197,801
r 99,202r!00,573102,457
Sales 2
Durablegoodsstores
seasonally i
15,24718,15020,72423,21825,19624,40126,33526,739
27,15428,72128,723
28,30727,49029,16030,66832,12432,66332,53930,893
r32,125*B3,09234,401
Re
Nondura-ble goods
stores
idjusted
33,76536,63139,71144,06749,85055,83460,96362,901
63,75163,77163,736
64,00163,67464,10364,78166,30766,51066,98266,90867,077
r67,48168,056
tail
Total
71,74479,27389,530
102,790111,229116,430126,833128,250
128,849127,619128,250
127,869130,392129,327129,901131,654132,501131,905133,783135,452135,173
Inventories 3
Durablegoodsstores
33,35637,84143,13549,98753,71754,40059,09559,597
60,58159,41759,597
59,73561,51760,41260,64061,40162,01961,28462,31364,02163,680
Nondura-ble goods
stores
38,38841,43246,39552,80357,51262,03067,73868,653
68,26868,20268,653
68,13468,87568,91569,26170,25370,48270,62171,47071,43171,493
Inventory-s
Manufac-turingj , jand trade
i
.57
.48
.46
.44
.43
.45
.44
.51
.54
.52
.51
.47
.49
.451.441.391.351.361.361.351.35
ales ratio 4
Retail
1.441.381.401.431.441.421.401.41
1.421.381.39
1.391.431.391.361.341.341.331.371.371.34
1 See page 21 for manufacturing.2 Monthly average for year and total for month.
•3 Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted.
4 For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly sales; for monthlydata, ratio of inventories at end of month to sales for month.
Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census).
20
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERSIn October, manufacturers' shipments fell while inventories and orders rose. In November, according to advancedata, durable goods shipments fell and new orders rose.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
^NEW ORDERS-
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)240
200180
160
140
120
100
80
DURABLE GOODS
TOTAL
ffgi-^NONDURABLE GOODS
1980 1981
p*""....,. /
D D S *""»>
*SEASONALLY ADJUSTEDSOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COM
1982 1983
H-INVENTORIES-
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)
360320
280
240
200
160
120
100
80
DURABLE GOODS
NONDURABLE GOODS
INVENTORY-SHIPMENTS RATIO
1983
Period
19751976197719781979198019811982
1982: OctNovDec
1983: JanFebMarAprMayJuneJulyAugSept r
Oetp
Novp
Manufa
Total
86,59598,802
113,202126,905143,936154,391168,129159,177
154,194154,318154,543
158,239158,081161,803163,065167,965173,920172,598175,989178,590176,790
cturers' shipi
Durablegoods
43,65650,68959,26767,84876,06077,55083,87276,843
72,47873,00573,495
77,74477,76979,59580,24182,66986,58285,64687,91888,970
r88,22892,478
nents 1
Nondura-ble goods
42,93948,11353,93559,05767,87676,84184,25782,334
81,71681,31381,048
80,49580,31282,20882,82485,29687,33886,95288,07189,62088,562
Manufac
Total
M
159,934175,193189,195210,415241,113264,114282,333264,902
270,786267,920264,902
262,117260,856257,304257,397258,149257,390258,176259,834260,021260,816
3turers' inven
Durablegoods
illions of do
102,874112,581121,575137,834160,554174,547186,222175,200
179,675177,061175,200
172,506171,572169,377169,814170,734169,840169,693170,576170,385170,628
tones 2
Nondura-ble goods
Hars, seasoi
57,06062,61267,62072,58180,55989,56796,11189,702
91,11190,85989,702
89,61189,28487,92787,58387,41587,55088,48389,25889,63690,188
M
Total
lally adjust*
85,14999,543
115,061131,616147,466156,142167,924157,371
152,362152,604157,382
162,871157,757162,587166,025169,874178,489175,455178,302180,961181,802
anufaeturers
Durable
Total
3d
42,01951,39861,11172,40979,51379,34183,72575,103
70,73571,06776,180
82,35577,44979,95183,10184,45690,90588,23489,97890,996
r93,36697,080
new orders
3 goods
Capitalgoods
industries,non-
defense
11,01112,79915,29119,45823,23123,25924,05920,687
20,12719,98319,679
20,50719,17520,03222,59222,22824,28921,58023,02825,213
r26,00324,854
i
Nondura-ble goods
43,13048,14553,95059,20767,95376,80184,19982,268
81,62781,53781,202
80,51680,30882,63682,92485,41887,58487,22188,32489,96588,436
Manufac-turers'unfilledorders 3
173,829182,499205,675262,671305,453325,908323,346300,971
299,846298,132300,971
305,599305,268306,053309,015310,922315,488318,348320,664323,032328,041
Manufac-turers'inven-tory-
shipmentsratio 4
1.841.691.611.571.571.661.641.73
1.761.741.71
1.661.651.591.581.541.481.501.481.461.48
1 Monthly average for year and total for month. Shipments are the same as sales.2 Book value, end of period.3 End of period.
4 For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly shipments; formonthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to shipments for month.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
21
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
PRICESPRODUCER PRICESIn November, the producer price index for all finished goods fell 0.2 percent, seasonally adjusted. Prices offinished consumer foods fell 1.0 percent and prices of other finished consumer goods rose 0.1 percent. Prices ofcapital equipment were unchanged.
INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE)320 I
— FINISHED GOODS300
260
240
220
180
160
140
120
INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE)
320SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
TOTAL FINISHEDGOODS-
CONSUMER FOODS
\
-CAPITAL EQUIPMENT-—^
1975 1976 1977 1978
CONSUMER GOODSEXCLUDING FOODS
1979 1980 1981 1982
300
280
260
240
220
200
180
160
140
1201933
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[1967 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Period
197519761977197819791980198119821982: Nov
Dec1983: Jan
Feb.MarAprMayJuneJuly r.AugSeptGetNov
Totalfinishedgoods
163.4170.6181.7195.9217.7247.0269.8280.7285.5286.4283.3283.8283.0283.0283.7285.1285.3286.4286.9287.8287.3
Con-sumerfoods
181.0180.4189.9207.2226.2239.5253.6259.3258.2258.8258.3260.9261.4264.2262.9261.4259.5260.7262.4265.3262.7
Fi
Total
156.2166.1177.7190.7213.3247.8273.3285.8292.5293.5289.5289.2288.1287.1288.4290.8291.8292.9293.0293.1293.4
Fin
nished go(
Total
153.1162.6174.3186.7211.5250.8276.5287.8295.8296.7290.8290.0288.0286.7288.3291.4292.5293.2293.7293.6293.9
shed goods
)ds excluding
Consumer gc
Durable
138.2144.5152.8166.9183.2206.2218.6226.7229.8230.4229.6232.2232.6232.4232.9234.0234.1234.7233.8232.8233.9
consumer foo<
)ods
Nondurable
163.0174.8189.3200.0231.3283.9319.6333.6345.3346.4337.3333.7329.7327.4330.0334.7336.7337.4338.9339.6339.3
Is
Capitalequip-ment
162.5173.4184.6199.2216.5239.8264.3279.4283.1284.4283.9285.0285.8285.6286.2287.0287.5289.6288.8289.6289.6
Totalfinished
163.6169.7180.7194.9217.9248.9271.3281.0286.2287.0283.1283.4282.2282.3282.9284.5284.7285.5286.4287.3286.6
Intenr
Total
180.0189.1201.5215.6242.2280.3306.0310.4311.7311.8310.1309.8308.6307.2308.6311.1312.0314.0316.1317.0317.4
ediate ma
Foodsand
feeds 1
195.3185.3190.5203.1226.1252.6250.3239.4233.7234.0236.0239.4239.8246.3245.3243.2242.4250.5260.9258.0256.2
terials
Other
178.6189.4202.3216.5244.4282.3310.1315.7317.4317.5315.6315.0313.7311.9313.3316.2317.2318.8320.3321.5322.0
On
Total
196.9202.7209.2234.4274.3304.6329.0319.5317.3316.6315.8316.8318.9323.9324.1323.6319.7326.5328.0327.2328.3
ide materi
Food-stuffsand
feed-stuffs
191.8190.2192.1216.2247.9259.2257.4247.8239.4240.3243.0248.8250.5258.0255.0251.0244.4254.2254.6255.2255.1
als
Other
206.9228.5245.0272.3330.0401.0482.3473.9484.8480.6472.6463.3466.4466.5472.9479.9481.9482.3486.1482.3485.9
1 Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and feeds. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
22
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
CONSUMER PRICESIn November, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.3 percent seasonally adjusted (0.2 percentnot seasonally adjusted). The index was 3.2 percent above its level in November 1982.
INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE)320
300
280
260
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE}1320
/ALL IT
1975
SEE NOTE ON TABLE BELOWSOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
1976 1977 1978
ALL ITEMS
1979 1980 1981
300
280
260
240
220
200
180
160
120
1982 1983
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[1967 = 100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Period
Rel. imp.5
197519761977197819791980198119821982: Nov
Dee1983: Jan
FebMarAprMayJuneJulyAugSept.OctNov
Allitems *
NSA
100.0161.2170.5181.5195.4217.4246.8272.4289.1293.6292.4293.1293.2293.4295.5297.1298.1299.3300.3301.8302.6303.1
Food
19.0175.4180.8192.2211.4234.5254.6274.6285.7288.2288.1288.3288.3290.1291.3292.2291.3291.0291.6292.5293.9294.3
Total l
37.7164.5174.6186.5202.8227.6263.3293.5314.7319.9317.4318.9318.9318.7320.4321.5322.1323.4324.2325.8326.6328.1
Total
21.3169.7179.0191.1210.4239.7281.7314.7337.0340.7336.0338.3339.1339.2341.6342.7343.6345.3346.6348.4349.8351.2
Hou
She
Rent-ers'
costs 2
6.9
100.2100.8101.1101.3101.7102.2102.5103.1103.6104.3104.7105.1
sing
Iter
Home-own-ers'
costs 2
NSA
13.9
100.0100.7100.9100.9101.7102.0102.2102.7103.0103.5103.9104.3
Mainte-nanceand
repairs
NSA
0.5187.6199.6214.7233.0256.4285.7314.4334.1339.0337.8342.9339.4339.9343.6344.3345.1346.1347.9346.6351.1353.4
Fueland
otherutilities
8.4167.8182.7202.2216.0239.3278.6319.2350.8367.1369.6368.9366.9365.1365.8368.8368.9370.1371.1373.6373.1375.9
Appar-el andupkeep
5.2142.3147.6154.2159.6166.6178.4186.9191.8193.2192.7193.2194.2194.1194.5195.8196.5197.7198.4198.4198.4198.5
Ti
Total1
21.8150.6165.5177.2185.5212.0249.7280.0291.5296.0295.8293.9289.1289.0292.1295.8297.1298.6301.6304.1305.9306.4
•ansportati
Newcars
3.5127.6135.7142.9153.8166.0179.3190.2197.6198.7199.3199.4201.1202.6201.3200.6200.8200.8202.5204.5205.9206.0
an
Motorfuel3
6.2170.8177.9188.2196.3265.6369.1410.9389.4394.2391.2378.3353.0349.5363.2378.1380.9382.5387.1388.9387.1384.1
Medicalcare
6.0168.6184.7202.4219.4239.7265.9294.5328.7341.8344.4347.2350.1351.7353.3354.8356.4358.4360.3361.7363.0364.4
Ener-.gy 4
12.4176.6189.3207.3220.4275.9361.1410.0416.1430.2431.3
6 420.5404.9401.3409.3419.5420.9422.3425.4428.2426.6426.6
Allitemsless
food,energy,
andshelter
47.3149.4159.9169.5179.1191.5208.3228.1245.6250.7251.9253.1254.2254.9255.5256.1257.0258.5259.7260.9262.4263.5
1 Includes items not shown separately.2 December 1982=100.3 Includes direct pricing of diesel and gasohol beginning September 1981.4 Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel, motor oil, coolant,
etc.5 Relative importance, December 1982.
6 Energy excludes motor oil, coolant, etc. beginning January 1983.NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted.Data beginning 1978 are for all urban consumers; earlier data are for urban wage earners and
clerical workers.Data beginning 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeownership costs.Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
23
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS[Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Period
1974197519761977 .19781979198019811982
1982: NovDec
1983: JanFebMarAprMayJuneJulyAugSeptOctNov
Ch
Totalfinishedgoods
Cht
18.36.63.76.99.2
12.811.87.13.7
0
0.6.3
— 1.1.2
-.30
.2
.5
.1
.4
.2
.3-.2
ange from pi
Consumt
Foods
inge, Dec.
13.05.5
-2.56.9
11.77.47.51.42.1
lange, mor
0.2
-.21.0.2
1.1-.5-.6__.7
r.5.7
1.1-1.0
eceding per
r goods
Exclud-ing foods
to Dec., N
20.56.76.06.78.5
17.514.28.54.2
ith to mon
0.9.3
2.0-.3
Y-.5
.61.1.4.2.2
-.0.1
od
Capitalequip-ment
SA
22.68.26.47.37.98.8
11.49.23.9
th
0.4.5
.2
.4
.3-.1
.2
.3
.2
.7-.3
.30
Change
Totalfinishedgoods
4.35.2
.7-2.4-4.7
— .4.1
3.03.33.92.53.61.3
from 3 month
Consume
Foods
-1.8.8
.24.24.19.53.10
r-6.9-3.3
1.5r9.23.1
s earlier, ann
r goods
Excludingfoods
8.17.8
-3.2-7.6
-11.2-5.5-2.3
4.88.37.03.21.51.0
ml rate
" Capitalequipment
1.13.6
2.72.72.02.41.71.7
r2.74.82.5
r3.00
Change
Totalfinishedgoods
6.24.7
1.5.9.1
-.6-1.3-.91.41.82.83.42.6
from 6 month
Consunw
Foods
-3.1-3.5
71.22.44.73.72.0r.9
-.2.8.8
-.2
s earlier, ann
;r goods
Excludingfoods
11.08.7
1.6— .1
-2.2—4.4-5.0-3.5
1.22.24.04.93.9
ial rate
*
Capitalequipment
3.93.5
2.41.92.82.62.21.8
r2.63.32.12.82.4
Changefromyear
earlier,total
finishedgoods
NSA
15.310.84.46.57.8
11.113.59.24.0
3.73.7
2.22.22.22.12.31.81.41.41.41.3.7
NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES[Percent change from preceding period; montbJy data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Period
197419751976197719781979198019811982
1982: NovDec..
1983: JanFebMarAprMayJuneJulyAugSeptOctNov
Allitems l
12.27.04.86.89.0
13.312.48.93.9
0-.3
.2-.2
.1
.6
.5
.2
.4
.4
.5
.4
.3
Food
12.26.5
.68.0
11.810.210.24.33.1
0.0-.0
.10
.6
.4
.3-.3-.1
.2
.3
.5
.1
Total 1
13.47.55.47.69.9
15.213.710.23.6
-0.2-.8
.50
— .1.5.3.2.4.2.5.2.5
Total 1
11.47.34.28.7
11.517.415.19.92.4
-0.6-1.4
.7
.2
.0
.7
.3
.3
.5
.4
.5
.4
.4
Hoi
Sh
Rent-ers'
costs
0.6.3.2.4.5.3.6.&.7.4.4
ising
elter
Home-owners'
costs
NSA
Chang
0.7.2.0.8.3.2.5.3.5.4.4
Mainte-nanceand
NSA
re, Decem
16.25.57.17.2
10.110.310.69.24.2
Change,
-0.1-.4
1.5-1.0
.11.1
.2
.2
.3
.5— .41.3
.7
Fueland
otherutili-ties
ber to I
16.611.29.08.15.9
16.013.614.59.7
month t
1.2.7
-.2-.5-.5
.2
.8
.0
.3
.3
.7— .1
.8
Ap-parelandup-
keep
)ecembe
8.72.34.54.23.25.56.83.61.6
o month
-0.1-.3
.3
.5— .1
.2
.7
.4
.6
.400
.1
Tn
Total »
r.NSA
13.39.88.84.37.7
18.214.711.01.7
-0.1-j
-.6-1.6-.01.11.3.4.5
1.0.8.6.2
insportati
Newcars
11.57.34.87.26.27.47.56.81.6
-0.3.3
.1
.9
.7-.6-.3
.10
.81.0.7.0
on
Motorfuel2
20.611.02.64.98.5
52.218.99.4
-6.5
-0.3-.8
-3.3-6.7-1.0
3.94.1
.7
.41.2.5
— .5-.8
Medi-cal
care
12.49.9
10.18.88.8
10.110.012.511.0
0.9.8
.8
.8
.5
.5
.4
.5
.6
.5
.4
.4
.4
Ener-gy3
21.611.66.97.28.0
37.418.111.91.3
0.8.3
4-2.5-3.7-.92.02.5.3.3.7.7
— .40
Allitemsless
food,energy,
andshelter
11.36.47.05.26.57.29.99.46.1
0.2.5
.5
.4
.3
.2
.2
.4
.6
.5
.5
.6
.4
Addendurchan
From3
monthsearlier
2.1.5
-.4-1.2
.42.15.15.44.74.25.35.54.9
n: All items,ge (annual n
From6
monthsearlier
5.12.3
1.4.4.5.8
1.92.93.44.75.45.14.6
percentite)
Fromyear
earlier
NSA
11.09.15.86.57.7
11.313.510.46.1
4.63.9
3.83.53.63.93.52.62.42.62.92.93.2
1 Includes items not shown separately.2 Includes direct pricing of diesel and gasohol beginning September 1981.3 Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel, motor oil, coolant,
etc.4 Energy excludes motor oil, coolant, etc. beginning January 1983.
NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data beginning January 1978 are for all urban consumers; earlier data are for urban wage earn-ers and clerical workers.
Data beginning January 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeownership costs.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
24
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERSPrices received by farmers rose 0.7 percent in November and prices paid by farmers rose 0.6 percent in the monthended November 15.
INDEX, 1977=100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1977=100 (RATIO SCALE)
60 I II II I I I II II I I I II I I I I I I I I II I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I lI I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I l I I I I I M I i I 60
J/ RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
1983
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[1977 = 100]
Period
19751976197719781979198019811982
1982: NovDec
1983: JanFebMarAprMayJuneJulyAugSeptOctNov
Pri
All farmproducts
101102100115132134139133
128127
128132134136137134131139136134135
3es received by farm
Crops
105102100105116125134121
117114
114118121127129126125139134137136
ers
Livestock andproducts
98101100124147144143145
139139
142146146145144141137139137135135
F
All commodities,services,
interest, taxes,and wage rates *
8995
100108123138150156
156156
157158159159160160160160161161162
rices paid by farmer
Productionitems, interest,
taxes, and wagerates
8995
100109125139151154
154153
156157157158159159158159159158159
s
Productionitems
9197
100108125138148149
148148
150151152153154154152153154153154
Ratio 2
113107100106107979386
8281
8284848686848287848383
1 Includes items not shown separately.2 Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid, interest, taxes,
and wage rates.
NOTE. — The official indexes are published on a 1910-14 base as required by law. The indexeshave been converted to a 1977 = 100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes.
Source: Department of Agriculture.
25
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETSMONEY STOCK MEASURES AND LIQUID ASSETSGrowth in M3 accelerated in November, while growth in the narrower aggregates slowed a little.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
2,6002,4002,200
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
M3
1975 1976
I I I I I I I I I I1977 1978 1979
M2
1980
I I I I I1981
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS'(RATIO SCALE)
2,6002,4002,200
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1982
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
2001983
•SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE, SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted]
Period
1975: Dec.....1976: Dec1977: Dec1978: Dec1979: Dec1980: Dec1981: Dec1982: Dec
1982: NovDec
1983: JanFebMarAprMayJuneJulyAugSeptOctNov'1
Ml
Sum of currency,demand deposits,
travelers' checks, andother checkable deposits
(OCD) !
291.1310.4335.5363.2389.0414.1440.6478.2
474.0478.2
482.1491.1497.6496.5507.4511.7515.5516.7517.1517.9518.2
M2
Ml plus overnight RPsand Eurodollars,MMMF balances
(general purpose andbroker/dealer),
MMDAs, and savingsand small time deposits
1,023.01,163.51,286.41,388.51,497.51,630.31,794.91,959.5
1,945.01,959.5
2,010.02,050.82,069.92,074.82,096.22,114.42,126.32,136.9
r 2, 145.4r2,162.02,176.2
M3
M2 plus large timedeposits, term RPs, andinstitution-only MMMV
balances
1,161.71,296.31,451.81,613.51,758.41,936.72,167.92,377.6
2,370.22,377.6
2,403.3r 2,430.72,447.12,453.92,476.22,498.8
r2,510.32,528.3
r 2,543.9r 2,562.02,588.9
L
M3 plus other liquidassets
1,371.91,522.41,711.01,922.92,131.82,343.62,622.0
r 2,896.7r 2,882.5r 2,896.7
2,930.62,960.2
r 2,987.5r 3,005.8r3,031.3r 3,058.63,087.8
Percent cm
Ml
4.96.68.18.37.16.56.48.5
9.811.2
12.614.815.412.214.614.514.310.78.08.84.3
jhange fromonths earlier
M2
12.613.710.67.97.98.9
10.19.2
10.510.5
14.216.116.615.616.216.411.98.67.4
r8.67.8
year or 62
M3
9.411.612.011.19.0
10.111.99.7
11.910.7
10.810.09.98.99.1
10.59.18.2
r8.1r9.09.3
1 Net of demand deposits due to foreign commercial banks and official institutions.2 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months
earlier at an annual rate.
26
NOTE.—See page 27 for components.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK MEASURES AND LIQUID ASSETS[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Period
Dec:19751976197719781979198019811982
1982:NovDec..
1983:JanFebMarAprMayJuneJulyAugSeptOctNov '.....
Cur-rency
73.980.688.697.5
106.3116.2123.2132.8
131.9132.8
134.2135.6137.0138.0139.3140.3140.9141.8143.0144.2145.3
De-manddepos-
its *
214.1224.4239.7253.8262.0266.8236.4239.8
237.6239.8
239.4238.7240.1238.9242.5244.0245.8244.5243.4242.9241.6
Othercheck-
abledepos-
its(OCD)
0.92.74.28.4
17.026.976.6
101.3
100.1101.3
104.5112.5116.0115.0120.9122.7124.2125.8126.0126.0126.5
Over-nightrepur-chaseagree-ments(RPs),
net, plusover-nightEuro-dollars
NSA
5.810.614.720.321.228.436.144.3
45.244.3
47.3r48.9r48.850.655.156.052.752.1
r53.0r56.755.7
Moneymutua
bala
Gener-al
pur-poseandbro-ker/
dealer
NSA
2.72.42.46.4
33.461.4
150.9182.2
191.1182J
166.7159.6154.0146.7141.1139.7
r 138.8r 139.1r 137.6
137.8138.7
market1 fundnces
Insti-tutiononly
NSA
0.4.6.9
3.19.5
14.936.047.6
49.947.6
46.145.243.541.040.439.238.638.439.139.940.6
Moneymarketdeposit
accounts(MMDAs)
NSA
43.2
43.2
189.1277.7320.5341.2356.8367.3368.4366.3366.9367.4369.1
Sav-ings
depos-its
388.8453.0491.6481.2423.1400.7344.4359.3
366.4359.3
335.1325.7322.7321.5323.1325.0323.5322.1320.6318.8316.4
Smalldenom-ination
timedepos-its2
338.1391.0446.0521.8635.9731.7828.6859.1
874.9859.1
797.4755.1733.8725.7720.1722.1735.1748.0757.7771.0785.7
Largedenom-ination
timedepos-its2
129.9118.2145.2194.9222.2258.9302.6333.8
340.4333.8
310.7297.9296.2300.2299.2304.1305.6311.6
r317.7r319.9325.4
Termrepur-chaseagree-ments(RPs)
NSA
8.414.219.527.130.134.837.240.3
39.440.3
40.640.841.742.745.344.542.844.8
r45.1r43.949.4
TermEuro-dollars
(net)
NSA
9.713.118.429.041.548.065.3
r80.0
r79.6r80.0
81.183.5
r85.9r88.4r89.9r89.889.6
Sovav-
bonds
67.271.776.480.279.572.367.767.9
67.867.9
68.168.568.869.269.669.870.0
Short-term
Treas-ury
securi-ties
76.880.889.799.3
128.7156.9176.3217.6
214.5217.6
219.3219.3224.5230.5231.4237.2252.1
Bank-ers'
accep-tances
8.48.8
11.821.626.731.640.644.9
43.144.9
45.343.242.041.240.840.241.4
r m~paper
48.051.762.979.297.098.1
104.2108.8
107.3108.8
113.5115.1119.2122.5123.4122.9124.4
1 Net of demand deposits due to foreign commercial banks and official institutions.2 Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than
$100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively.
NOTE.—See p. 26 for overall measures.
Travelers checks are a component of money stock but are not shown here.NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT[Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Period
19751976.*1977197819791980198119821982: Oct
NovDec
1983: JanFebMarAprMayJuneJulyAugSeptOct
Installr
Total 2
180,083210,740257,600297,668324,777306,076334,508344,90128,65031,69130,777
nent credit e>
Auto-mobile
52,42063,74375,64187,98193,90183,45493,24095,9978,041
10,1779,716
ctended
Revolving
36,95643,93487,596
105,125120,174128,068139,829150,06112,61412,77812,491
Installnr
Total 2
172,675189,179222,138254,589286,396304,628316,291331,805
28,78129,67628,359
lent credit liq
Auto-mobile
49,44453,27860,43769,24579,18682,97784,74591,0998,1118,6438,225
uidated
Revolving
35,61641,76481,34896,090
111,546126,653135,362145,69612,53312,73911,990
Net
Total 2
^,40821,56135,46243,07938,381
1,44818,21713,096-1312,0152,4182,725
7352,5822,2712,6964,4064,8403,3882,3754,885
change in amoutstanding l
Auto-mobile
2,97610,46515,20418,73614,715
4778,4954,898-70
1,5341,491
625-2331,221
6891,3131,9732,4212,521
2851,772
ount
Revolving
1,3402,1706,2489,0358,6281,4154,4674,365
8139
50168
-1351,177
917514
1,210821313479
1,145
Amount ousea
Total 2
169,387190,725226,646269,392307,115308,137326,274339,316335,593336,897339,316342,041342,776345,358347,629350,325354,731359,571362,959365,334370,219
tstanding, ensonally adjus
Auto-mobile
57,27967,79882,890
101,863116,523116,808125,323130,235127,694128,824130,235130,860130,627131,848132,537133,850135,823138,244140,765141,050142,822
i of period,ted
Revolving
14,46716,50536,42745,00453,17454,65058,72262,83062,30262,32662,83062,89862,76363,94064,85765,37166,58167,40267,71568,19469,339
1 Through 1982 calculated as the difference between credit extensions and credit liquidations. Be-ginning 1983, calculated as change in amount outstanding.
2 Includes "mobile home" and "other," not shown separately.
Note.—Extensions and liquidations not available after December 1982.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
27
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS, AND RESERVESCommercial and industrial loans rose again in November.
-ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)1,8001,6001,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
160
120
80
40 1 1 11975
Mi l l
1976
LOANS AND LEASES
INVESTMENT IN OTHER
INVESTMENT INU.S. TREASURY SECURITIES
UNI1977
I l l l l l l l l l l1978 1979
mil nn1980
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)1,8001,6001,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
SECURITIES
I I I H1981
I l l l l l l l i l l1982
I l l l
200
160
120
80
401983
'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, AVERAGES OF WEDNESDAY FIGURES
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Period
1975: Dec1976: Dec1977: Dec1978: Dec1979: Dec1980: Dec1981: Dec1982: Dec
1982: NovDec.
1983: JanFebMarAprMayJuneJulyAugSeptOct r
Nov"
Total loansand
investments
745.2804.6891.5
1,013.51,135.91,239.61,316.31,412.0
1,398.51,412.0
,428.2,436.3,450.1,460.6,474.4,488.0,499.9,513.2,520.3,532.9
1,548.6
Al
Loans a
Total 2
517.4555.0632.5747.0849.9915.1973.9
1,042.0
1,036.41,042.0
1,045.01,048.71,056.31,059.51,063.31,070.61,080.91,091.01,096.31,104.11,115.6
commercial ban
nd leases
Commercialand industrial
loans
189.6190.9210.9245.9291.2326.8358.0392.3
392.0392.3
395.1394.9396.2392.9392.9395.0399.2402.5402.6404.7407.8
b1
Investi
U.S. Treasurysecurities
82.2100.899.893.894.5
110.0111.0130.9
126.4130.9
139.8144.5151.0157.8166.1171.2172.9174.4176.9182.3186.2
nents
Othersecurities
145.6148.8159.3172.8191.5214.4231.4239.2
235.8239.2
243.3243.1242.8243.4245.0246.2246.1247.8247.1246.5246.8
R
res
Total
26.3826.8028.0029.4430.7132.4633.7536.23
35.8336.23
35.6336.1036.8037.1537.1337.6137.8037.6937.7237.6237.41
Depos
eserves adjustfor changes iierve requirem
Non-borrowed
26.2526.7427.4328.5729.2430.7733.1135.60
35.2135.60
35.1035.5236.0136.1436.1835.9836.3536.1536.2836.7836.50
itory institutio
3dients
Required
26.1126.5227.8129.2130.3831.9433.4335.73
35.4335.73
35.0935.6636.3736.6836.6837,1337.2937.2537.2237.1236.88
ns3
Bom(millions
unad
Total
12762
558874
1,4731,617
636697
579697
500557852993902
1,7141,3821,5731,441
837913
) wingsof dollars,usted)
Seasonal
131254
13482
1165333
4733
3339538298
121172198191142119
1 Data are averages of Wednesday figures.2 Excludes loans to commercial banks in the United States.3 Data are averages of daily figures.
NOTE.—Beginning Dec. 1981, bank loans and investments and reserves aggregates have been•educed because of shifts from U.S. banking offices to International Banking Facilities (IBFs).
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
28
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIALCORPORATE BUSINESS
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Period
1973197419751976197719781979198019811982
1982: InmIV
1983: I r
n r
mp.
Total
192.4190.1156.9210.8254.1317.5345.7333.2365.8308.6
302.8329.9327.4274.5
323.4396.3387.7
Internal l
91.785.6
119.7134.2157.4175.7188.8189.5230.6240.5
233.5240.2244.0244.3
250.7270.3291.1
Total
100.7104.437.276.696.7
141.8156.9143.7135.268.1
69.389.783.430.2
72.7126.096.6
Sources
Ci
Total
56.769.930.754.572.480.588.290.992.284.1
102.889.989.054.6
69.277.180.1
External
edit market fu
Securitiesand
mortgages
20.726.338.738.235.832.820.952.422.545.2
24.838.639.677.8
64.784.033.4
nds
Loans andshort-term
paper
36.043.6
-8.016.336.647.767.338.569.738.9
78.051.349.4
-23.2
4.5-6.946.7
Other 2
44.034.56.5
22.124.361.368.852.843.0
-16.0
-33.4-.25.6
-24.4
3.548.816.4
Total
191.9190.1150.9201.8237.6293.6346.7320.1324.3250.9
232.1279.3270.4222.0
276.2338.7338.4
Uses
Capitalexpendi-tures 3
121.5137.9109.7148.3175.1201.6219.4221.2261.6231.2
242.4242.2240.1200.2
202.4252.9281.5
Increase infinancialassets
70.552.241.253.562.592.0
127.398.962.719.7
-10.337.130.321.8
73.885.856.9
Discrepancy(sources less
uses)
0.5.0
6.09.0
16.523.8
-1.013.141.657.7
70.850.556.952.5
47.257.649.3
1 Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments), capital 3 Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights from U.S.consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits, dividends, and subsidiaries' earnings retained Government.abr°?f . . .. .... . . , , ... , . . • , TT 0 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.2 Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, and direct foreign investment in the U.S.
CURRENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NONFINANCIALCORPORATIONS
[Billions of dollars, except as noted]
End of period
SIC series: 2
19701971197219731974
FTC-FRB series: 3
197419751976197719781979198019811982
1982: IIIIllIV
1983: III"
Total
492.3529.6599.3697.8790.7
735.4759.0827.4912.7
1,043.71,214.81,327.01,419.31,425.4
1,418.01,417.21,441.81,425.4
1,436.51,464.2
Cash
50.253.359.066.371.1
73.282.188.297.2
105.5118.0126.9131.8144.0
121.8124.1126.9144.0
139.7145.7
Current
U.S.Govern-
mentsecurities
7.711.010.612.812.3
11.119.023.518.217.216.718.717.422.4
16.516.518.922.4
25.827.5
assets
Notes andaccounts
receivable
206.1221.1248.2288.5322.1
265.8272.1292.9330.3388.0459.0506.8530.3511.0
533.4531.2534.2511.0
517.9534.3
Inven-tories
193.3200.4225.7263.9313.6
319.5315.9342.5376.9431.8505.1542.8585.1575.2
591.6587.6596.5575.2
573.2570.5
Othercurrentassets
35.043.855.866.471.7
65.969.980.390.1
101.1116.0131.8154.6172.6
154.7157.9165.3172.6
179.9186.2
C
Total
304.9326.0375.6450.9530.4
453.4451.6495.1557.1669.5807.3889.3976.3977.8
987.0988.7
1,007.6977.8
986.3997.7
urrent liabilitie
Notes andaccountspayable
211.3220.5282.9340.3402.3
269.8264.2282.1317.6383.0460.8513.6558.8552.8
552.9554.9562.7552.8
543.2551.6
s
Othercurrent
liabilities
93.6105.592.7
110.7128.1
183.6187.4213.0239.6286.5346.5375.7417.5425.0
434.0433.8444.9425.0
443.1446.1
Networkingcapital
187.4203.6223.7246.9260.3
282.0307.4332.4355.5374.3407.5437.8442.9447.6
431.0428.5434.2447.6
450.2466.5
Currentratio *
1.6151.6251.5951.5481.491
1.6221.6811.6711.6381.5591.5051.4921.4541.458
1.4371.4331.4311.458
1.4561.468
1 Total current assets divided by total current liabilities.2 Based on data from Statistics of Income, Department of the Treasury.3 Based on data from Quarterly Financial Report for Manufacturing, Mining, and Trade Corpo-
rations, Federal Trade Commission and Department of Commerce.
NOTE.—SEC series not available after 1974.See Federal Reserve Bulletin, July 1978, for details regarding the series.
Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce, FederalTrade Commission, and Securities and Exchange Commission.
29Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDSInterest rates rose in December.
PERCENT PER ANNUM16
1982 1983
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Percent per annum]
Period
197719781979198019811982
1982: Dec1983: Jan
FebMarAprMayJuneJulyAugSeptOctNovDee '
Week ended:1983: Dee 3
10172431
U.S. T
3-month bills l
5.2657.221
10.04111.50614.07710.686
8.0137.8108.1308.3048.2528.198.829.129.399.058.718.718.96
8.909.008.939.048.94
reasury security
Constant n
3-year
6.698.299.72
11.5514.4412.92
9.889.649.919.849.769.66
10.3210.9011.3011.0710.8710.9611.13
10.9811.1011.2111.13
yields
laturities 2
10-year
7.428.419.44
11.4613.9113.00
10.5410.4610.7210.5110.4010.3810.8511.3811.8511.6511.5411.6911.83
11.6411.8211.9311.82
High-grademunicipal
bonds(Standard &
Poor's) 3
5.565.906.398.51
11.2311.57
9.919.459.489.168.969.039.519.469.729.579.649.799.90
9.859.85
10.019.929.80
CorporateAaa bonds(Moody's)
8.028.739.63
11.9414.1713.79
11.8311.7912.0111.7311.5111.4611.7412.1512.5112.3712.25
r 12.4112.57
12.3912.5112.6612.61
Primecommercial
paper,6 months 4
4 5.614 7.9910.9112.2914.7611.89
8.508.158.398.488.488.319.039.369.689.288.989.099.50
9.119.359.689.64
Discount rate(N.Y. F.E.
Bank)5
5.467.46
10.2811.7713.4111.02
High-low
9.00-8.508.50-8.508.50-8.508.50-8.508.50-8.508.50-8.508.50-8.508.50-8.508.50-8.508.50-8.508.50-8.508.50-8.508.50-8.50
8.50-8.508.50-8.508.50-8.508.50-8.50
Prime ratecharged by
banks5
6.839.06
12.6715.2718.8714.86
High-low
11.50-11.5011.50-11.0011.00-10.5010.50-10.5010.50-10.5010.50-10.5010.50-10.5010.50-10.5011.00-10.5011.00-11.0011.00-11.0011.00-11.0011.00-11.00
11.00-11.0011.00-11.0011.00-11.0011.00-11.00
New-homemortgage
yields(FHLBB)6
9.029.56
10.7812.6614.7015.14
13.6913.4913.1613.4112.4212.6712.3612.5012.3812.5412.2512.27
1 Rate on new issues within period; bank-discount basis.2 Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury De-
partment.3 Weekly data are Wednesday figures.4 Bank-discount basis. Prior to November 1, 1979, data are for 4-6 months paper.5 Average effective rate for year; high and low rate for month and week.
30
6 Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges aswell as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. Rates beginningJanuary 1973 not strictly comparable with prior rates.
Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Feder-al Home Loan Bank Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation.
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDSMost stock price indexes fell in December.
INDEX, DEC. 31 1965=50100
INDEX, DEC. 31,1965=50100
60 -
50 -
40 /^
PERCENT
20
- 50
40
1983
10
PERCENT20
EARNINGS- PRICE RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS(S&P)
1975 I 1976 1982 I 1983
SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD 8. POOR'S CORPORATION COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Period
1977197819791980198119821982: Dec1983: Jan
FebMarAprMayJuneJulyAugSeptOctNovDecp
Week ended:1983: Dee 3
101724
Ne^
Composite
53.6953.7058.3268.1074.0268.9380.3083.2584.7487.5090.6194.6196.4396.7493.9696.7096.7895.3694.91
96.2395.6294.5494.06
v York Stock Ex(
Industrial
57.8658.2364.7678.7085.4478.1892.0095.3797.26
100.61104.46109.43112.52113.21109.50112.76112.87110.77110.62
111.83111.33110.09109.67
Coi
;hange indexes (E
Transporta-tion
41.0943.5047.3460.6172.6160.4173.4075.6579.4483.2885.2689.0792.2292.9188.0694.5695.4197.6898.83
100.03100.2099.1097.73
Timon stock price
ec. 31, 1965—5
Utility
40.9239.2238.2037.3538.9139.7542.9345.5945.9245.8946.2247.6246.7646.6146.9448.1648.7348.5047.04
48.4147.5647.1546.56
s 1
O) 2
Finance
55.2556.6561.4264.2573.5271.9986.2285.6686.5793.2299.07
102.45101.2299.6095.7697.0094.7994.4894.25
96.2595.1993.6093.37
Dow-Jonesindustrialaverage 3
894.63820.23844.40891.41932.92884.36
1,033.081,064.291,087.431,129.581,168.431,212.861,221.471,213.931,189.211,237.041,252.201,250.011,257.59
1,274.681,267.111,248.621,249.15
Standard &Poor's
compositeindex (1941-
43 = 10)4
98.2096.02
103.01118.78128.05119.71139.37144.27146.80151.88157.71164.10166.39166.96162.42167.16167.65165.23164.33
166.56165.49163.59162.87
Common st(perce
Dividend-price ratio
4.625.285.475.265.205.814.934.794.744.594.444.274.264.214.354.244.254.314.32
4.274.294.354.35
ock yieldsnt)5
Earnings-price ratio
10.7912.0313.4612.6611.9611.608.99
8.12
r7.49
1 Average of daily closing prices.2 Includes all the* stocks (more than 1,500) listed on the NYSE.3 Includes 30 stocks.4 Includes 500 stocks.5 Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earnings-
price ratios based on prices at end of quarter.NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Cor-
poration.
31
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
FEDERAL FINANCEFEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBTIn the first two months of fiscal year 1984, there was a budget deficit of $46.7 billion, compared to a budgetdeficit of $50.3 billion a year earlier.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
900
800
700
600
500
300
BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
900
BUDGET OUTLAYS
-100
-200
BUDGET SURPLUS OR DEFICIT (-)
800
700
600
500
400
300
-100
-200
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980
FISCAL YEARS
1981 1982 1983 1984
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIt OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars]
Period
Fiscal year or period:19721973197419751976Transition quarter1977197819791980198119821983"1984 (estimates):
First Concurrent Resolution, June 23, 1983 1....Mid-Session Review, July 1983 2
Cumulative total first 2 months:Fiscal year 1983Fiscal year 1984
Budgetreceipts
207.3230.8263.2279.1298.1
81.2355.6399.6463.3517.1599.3617.8600.6
679.6668.4
'82.591.4
Budgetoutlays
230.7245.6267.9324.2364.5
94.2400.5448.4491.0576.7657.2728.4795.9
849.5848.1
132.9138.0
Budgetsurplus ordeficit (— )
23.4-14.8
4.7-45.2
66.4-13.0
44.9-48.8
27.7-59.6
57.9-110.6
195.4
169.9-179.7
50.3-46.7
Off-budgetsurplus ordeficit (-)
0.1— 1.4
8.1-7.3
1.8-8.710.4
-12.514.2
-21.017.3
-12.4
14.0
-1.0.8
Totalsurplus ordeficit (-)
-23.414.9
-6.153.2
-73.714.7
-53.659.2
-40.2-73.8-78.9127.9
-207.7
193.7
-51.345.9
Federal debt (
Gross
437.3468.4486.2544.1631.9646.4709.1780.4833.8914.3
1,003.91,147.01,381.9
1,614.61,611.9
1,166.61,393.8
end of period)
Held by thepublic
323.8343.0346.1396.9480.3498.3551.8610.9644.6715.1794.4929.4
1,141.8
1,339.4
961.51,162.4
1 First Concurrent Resolution, .June 23, 1983; figures exclude reserve fund items.2 Estimates from Mid-Session Review of the 1984 Budget, Office of Management and Budge
July 25, 1983.
Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget, except as noted.
32
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS BY SOURCE ANDOUTLAYS BY FUNCTIONIn the first two months of fiscal year 1984, budget receipts were $8.9 billion higher than a year earlier andbudget outlays were $5.1 billion higher.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
100 100
600
500
400
300
200
100
BUDGET OUTLAYS600
500
400
300
200
100
NONDEFENSE ^<*«**
\~'+~
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980
FISCAL YEARS
1981 1982 1983 1984
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars]
Period
Fiscal year or period:19721973197419751976Transition quarter1977197819791980198119821983 p
1984 (estimates) l
Cumulative total first 2 months:Fiscal year 1983Fiscal year 1984
Total
207.3230.8263.2279.1298.181.2
355.6399.6463.3517.1599.3617.8600.6668.4
82.591.4
Budget n
Individualincometaxes
94.7103.2119.0122.4131.638.8
157.6181.0217.8244.1285.9297.7288.9296.0
43.345.9
jeeipts
Corpo-rationincometaxes
32.236.238.640.641.48.5
54.960.065.764.661.149.237.064.1
-1.1.9
Other
80.491.4
105.7116.1125.034.0
143.0158.6179.8208.4252.2270.8274.6308.3
40.444.5
Total
230.7245.6267.9324.2364.594.2
400.5448.4491.0576.7657.2728.4795.9848.1
132.9138.0
Nation
Total
76.674.577.885.689.422.397.5
105.2117.7135.9159.8187.4210.5242.3
33.235.4
al defense
Depart-ment ofDefense,military
75.173.277.684.987.921.995.6
103.0115.0132.8156.1182.9205.0235.7
32.434.4
Budget outlays
Interna-tionalaffairs
4.74.15.76.95.62.24.85.96.1
10.711.110.08.9
13.5
1.11.4
Health andincomesecurity
80.090.4
104.8134.3158.941.0
174.5187.4207.1248.3291.1322.4361.4365.7
58.258.7
Netinterest
15.517.321.423.226.76.9
29.935.442.652.568.784.787.0
103.5
16.017.0
Other
53.959.358.274.283.921.893.8
114.4117.5129.3126.5123.9128.2123.1
24.425.5
1 Estimates from Mid-Session Review of the 1984 Budget, Office of Management and Budget,July 25, 1983.
Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget.
33
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASISIn the third quarter, according to revised estimates, Federal receipts fell $7.4 billion (annual rate) and expendituresrose $13.8 billion, yielding a deficit of $187.3 billion.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS900
600
400
300
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS900
EXPENDITURES
\ 1 1 1 I 1
RECEIPTS
1 1 i 1 1 1 I 1 1 \ \ 1 1 1NT
800
600
500
SURPLUS OR DEFICIT (-
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983-200
SOURCE.- DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Period
Fiscal year:19781979198019811982
Calendar year:19781979198019811982
1981: IIIIV
1982: IIIIllIV
1983: IIIIll r
Total
414.3480.8525.9610.3627.8
431.6493.6540.9627.0617.4
638.8629.2
619.5622.2615.2612.6
623.3652.6645.2
Federal
Personaltax andnontaxreceipts
186.5222.6250.4289.3310.4
194.9230.6257.7298.6304.7
308.6303.8
306.5308.5300.6303.0
297.7304.2286.9
Goveramei
Corpo-rate
profitstax
accruals
67.376.169.970.551.3
71.374.270.367.546.5
68.261.4
47.648.447.842.1
48.659.866.6
it receipts
Indirectbusinesstax andnontax
accruals
27.229.135.553.650.3
28.129.439.056.448.3
55.855.0
49.547.747.948.3
48.656.055.5
Contribu-tions for
socialinsurance
133.3153.1170.0196.9215.7
137.2159.5173.9204.5217.9
206.2209.1
215.8217.6218.9219.3
228.5232.6236.2
Total
450.4495.6576.5668.1740.0
461.0509.7602.1689.2764.4
701.2725.0
728.0735.4773.5820.9
806.6818.7832.5
Pur-chases
of goodsand
services
150.4164.1189.3218.5251.0
153.6168.3197.0229.2258.7
232.4248.5
249.7244.1261.7279.2
273.5273.7278.1
Federal (
Transferpay-
ments
182.2201.8239.4279.3310.2
185.6209.2251.5286.6321.1
295.3300.1
302.5311.2325.9344.8
340.3347.0343.5
jovernment
Grants-in-aid to
Stateandlocal
govern-ments
74.779.186.790.183.4
77.380.588.787.983.9
86.484.2
82.585.183.085.0
85.886.787.2
expenditur
Netinterest
paid
33.540.650.767.782.2
35.242.453.473.284.9
75.279.0
79.782.388.689.1
88.491.8
101.0
es
Subsidiesless
currentsurplus ofGovern-
mententer-prises
9.79.9
10.412.513.2
9.59.2
11.512.415.8
12.313.2
13.412.714.222.8
18.618.222.3
Less:Wage
accrualsless
disburse-ments
0.0-.0
.0
.1-.0
.0-.0
.0
.1-.0
.3
.0
-.1.0.0.0
.0-1.3
^
Surplusor deficit
(— ),nationalincome
andproductaccounts
-36.1-14.8
50.7-57.8112.2
-29.5-16.1-61.2-62.2
-147.1
62.4-95.8
- 108.5-113.2-158.3-208.2
-183.3-166.1-187.3
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), Department of the Treasury,and Office of Management and Budget.
34
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
INTERNATIONAL STATISTICSINDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES— MAJOR
INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES *[1967 = 100]
Period
19751976197719781979198019811982 p
1982: Dec1983: Jan
FebMarAprMayJuneJulyAugSeptOctNov*
UnitedStates
117.8130.5138.2146.1152.5147.0151.0138.6135.2137.4138.1140.0142.6144.4146.4149.7
r!51.8r 153.9r 155.1156.3
Indu
Canada
140.3149.0152.7157.8167.6165.1166.6148.8141.8149.3149.2149.9151.6153.3156.7
r 158.6r 160.4
163.3
strial prod
Japan
163.9182.0189.7201.1215.3225.2227.5228.4226.6227.3225.9231.5230.6231.1233.3234.0241.2241.9
action (sea
France
139149152154161160157154155156156155156
r!60157160160157
isonally adju
Germany
137.1149.1152.0154.1161.8162.3159.9156.2151154154157155157160157157158
sted)
Italy
127.6143.5145.1147.9157.6166.5162.7159.1150.0150.0148.9148.2141.5148.5145.1146.9134.9150.4148.4
UnitedKingdom
114.3117.4
r 124.2r 127.8r 132.8r 124.1r 119.2r!21.7r 123.0r 123.6r 124.2r 122.8r 123.0r 123.9r!21.8r 125.4
125.2125.3
UnitedStates l
161.2170.5181.5195.4217.4246.8272.4289.1292.4293.1293.2293.4295.5297.1298.1299.3300.3301.8302.6303.1
Canada
160.1172.1185.9202.5221.0243.5273.9303.4313.4312.5313.9317.1317.1317.9321.5322.9324.5324.5326.5
Consume
Japan
205.8224.9243.0252.3261.3282.2296.2304.1306.0306.6305.5307.5308.6312.0309.7308.3307.4311.4
r prices (i
France
178.9196.1214.5233.9259.1294.2332.7373.1386.4390.1392.9396.5401.8404.5406.9410.4412.8416.0419.2
unadjusted)
Germany
144.2150.4155.9160.2166.8175.9186.3196.2199.4199.8200.0199.8200.3201.1201.8202.6203.2203.6203.6
Italy
186.8218.1255.2286.2328.5398.0472.4549.4594.4602.7610.5616.0622.2628.2632.2638.5641.1649.4660.4
UnitedKingdom
216.5252.4292.4316.6359.0423.6473.9514.7522.9523.5525.8526.7534.1536.4537.7540.6543.0545.4547.3549.2
1 Beginning January 1978 data relate to all urban consumers.
Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce, International Trade Adminis-
tration, Office of Trade Investment and Analysis, Trade Performance Division, in InternationalEconomic Indicators.
U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS[Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Period
Monthly average:1975*1976*1977*1978*1979*1980.
198119821982: Get
NovDee
1983: JanFebMarAprMayJuneJulyAugSeptOctNov
Totaldomestic
andforeignexports
8,9719,602
10,10311,97315,15518,386
19,47317,68316,67115,85216,347
17,39316,32616,75216,07415,56617,00816,62916,63017,38716,95116,848
Men
Total 2
8,8479,4629,919
11,76214,88618,043
19,07517,25616,28415,47615,913
17,00715,98416,33515,72215,18616,65216,30016,24317,02216,49916,449
handise expo
Domestic
Food,bever-
ages, andtobacco
1,3991,4361,3301,7172,0492,534
2,7672,2482,1282,0511,966
2,3122,2242,3072,0792,0102,1942,1142,0862,3372,4182,504
rts1
exports
Crudemateri-als and
fuels
]
1,2661,3411,5481,7462,3522,810
2,7522,7932,6882,4402,420
2,7602,4432,3752,5492,2792,3772,3822,7812,7562,2892,234
Manu-facturedgoods
<\a.s. valu
5,9136,4376,6797,8739,716
11,991
12,85711,64310,94210,48410,648
11,26310,74311,06210,54510,33111,56011,12510,85511,18911,24911,198
Total 2
e
8,20910,29012,53314,56317,45520,406
21,74820,32921,00618,89219,154
20,02119,01519,52519,77121,51421,02421,95022,78222,17524,763
Merc
Ger
Food,bever-
ages, andtobacco
827991
1,1861,3121,4781,546
Customs
1,5291,4851,6861,4991,414
1,5821,5301,4791,612
,652,456,560,551,587
1,722
handise imp
icral import
Crudemateri-als and
fuels
2,7163,4574,4634,3255,9497,831
value
7,7396,2006,7275,7856,158
5,9114,4134,6554,5115,8455,5626,0146,5776,4456,889
orts
s 3
Manu-facturedgoods
4,2575,3986,3798,3609,352
10,427
11,87312,00211,90310,97810,988
11,98112,56112,67212,85613,35113,24913,84213,91313,37715,528
Total
value)
8,82311,04213,36815,50418,51921,415
22,77921,24021,93219,73720,002
20,96219,90620,38120,67522,47321,96422,98823,81723,19425,91724,248
Merch
Exports( f a s )less
imports(customs
value)
-2,275-2,647-4,335-3,041-2,808
-2,628-2,689-2,774-3,697-5,948-4,016-5,321-6,152-4,788-7,812
andise trade
Exports(f.a.s.)less
imports(f.a.s.)
762-688
-2,430-2,590-2,300-2,020
balance
Exports(f.a.s.)less
imports
148-1,440-3,265-3,530-3,364-3,030
-3,306-3,558-5,261-3,885-3,655
-3,569-3,580-3,630-4,601-6,907-4,956-6,359-7,187-5,807-8,966-7,401
1 Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the Mili-tary Assistance Program are excluded from totals for all periods and from monthly detail beginningJanuary 1978.
2 Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind.3 Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments.NOTE.—Imports on c.i.f. basis beginning 1982 not strictly comparable with earlier periods.
Data beginning 1980 include trade of the U.S. Virgin Islands, except that for 1980 Virgin Is-lands exports are reflected in the figures for domestic and foreign exports combined and trade bal-ance.
"Data for 1975-79 for domestic and foreign exports combined, total general imports, and tradebalance include trade of the Virgin Islands.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
35
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONSIn the third quarter, the current account deficit was a record $12.0 billion, up from $9.7 billion in the secondquarter. The increase was more than accounted for by the rise in the merchandise trade deficit to $18.2 billion,also a record, from $14.7 billion in the second quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1983*
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted. Credits (+), debits (—)]
Period
197419751976197719781979198019811982
1981: fflIV
1982: InmIV
1983: In r
ra '.
Exports
98,306107,088114,745120,816142,054184,473224,237237,019211,217
57,81258,383
55,63654,99652,24148,344
49,50648,913
r 50,585
Merchandise 1
Imports
-103,811-98,185
-124,228-151,907-176,020-212,028-249,781-265,086-247,606
-66,214-66,224
-61,739-60,850
65,319-59,698
-58,316-63,574
r- 68,754
2
Netbalance
-5,5058,903
-9,483-31,091-33,966-27,555-25,544-28,067-36,389
-8,4027,841
-6,103-5,85413,078
-11,354
-8,810- 14,661
r- 18,169
In
Receipts
27,58725,35129,28632,17942,24564,13272,44586,24384,146
22,04321,801
20,76122,31621,56919,499
17,69719,02720,622
vestment incon
Payments
-12,084-12,564-13,311
14,217-21,680-32,914-42,875
52,760-56,842
-13,888-12,892
-13,824-14,779-14,748-13,491
-12,608-13,326-13,694
ae3
Net
15,50312,78715,97517,96220,56531,21829,57033,48327,304
8,1558,909
6,9377,5376,8216,008
5,0895,7016,928
Netmilitarytransac-
tions
-1,653-746
5591,528
621-1,778-2,286-1,355
179
179-515
-5120154
-26
516117
-21
Nettravel andtranspor-
tationreceipts
-3,184-2,792-2,558-3,565-3,573-2,935-1,434
-598-2,095
-184-30
-208-561-557-769
-935-1,222
-745
Otherservices,
net3
3,9864,5984,7115,2726,0135,7357,1728,0607,822
2,0531,988
2,0501,9141,9061,951
2,1142,2342,092
Balanceon goods
andservices *
9,14722,7499,205
-9,894-10,340
4,6867,477
11,523-3,177
1,8012,571
2,6253,236
-4,854-4,190
-2,026-7,832-9,915
Remit-tances,
pensions,and otherunilateral
trans-fers 1
-7,186-4,613-4,998-4,617-5,106-5,649-7,056-6,931-8,034
-1,884-1,986
-2,061-1,802-1,742-2,431
-1,561-1,823-2,061
Balanceon
currentaccount
1,96218,1364,207
-14,511-15,446
-964421
4,592-11,211
-83585
5641,434
-6,596-6,621
-3,587-9,655
-11,976
1 Excludes military grants.2 Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage.3 Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the
United States are excluded from investment income and included in other services, net.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
36
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U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—ContinuedIn the capital accounts, claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $0.5 billion in the third quartercompared to a decrease of $5.2 billion in the second quarter. Liabilities to foreigners and international financialinstitutions reported by U.S. banks increased $17.4 billion compared to a $4.0 billion increase in the secondquarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS60
40
20
-20
-40
-60
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS160
CHANGE INFOREIGN ASSETSIN THE U.S., NET
/, \
40
-20
-40
-601975
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Period
197419751976197719781979198019811982
1981: IIIIV
1982: IIIIllIV
1983: III r
IIP....
[
Total
34,745-39,703
51,269-34,785
61,130-64,331-86,052
-110,601-118,045
-17,279-47,817
-31,456-40,934-26,099-19,553
-21,699-658
-6,429
U.S. assetsincrease /capita
U.S.officialreserve
assets 1 2
-1,467-849
-2,558-375
732-1,133-8,155-5,175-4,965
__4262
-1,089-1,132
-794-1,950
-78716
529
abroad, netd outflow ( — )
Other U.S.Govern-
mentassets
3663,474
-4,2143,693
-4,6603,746
-5,1405,078
-5,732
-1,274973
807-1,489
2,502-934
-1,053-1,162-1,188
U.S.privateassets
-33,64335,380
-44,49830,717
-57,20259,453
-72,757100,348
-107,348
- 16,00147,106
29,560-38,313
22,803-16,670
-19,859488
-5,770
Foreign[increase
Total
34,24115,67036,51851,31964,03638,75254,92280,67887,866
16,73141,551
27,12431,61217,61311,517
16,45210,95618,487
assets in the I/capital inflovs
Foreignofficialassets
10,5467,027
17,69336,81633,67813,66515,5665,4303,172
-5,8808,792
-3,0611,9302,6421,661
491,973
-3,235
I.S., netr ( + )] 2
Otherforeignassets
23,6968,643
18,82614,50330,35852,41639,35675,24884,694
22,61132,760
30,18529,68214,9729,855
16,4038,983
21,722
Allocationsof specialdrawingrights
(SDKs)
1,1391,1521,093
Statistical d
Total (sumof the items
with signreversed)
-1,4585,897
10,544-2,02312,54025,40429,55624,23841,390
6325,680
3,7687,887
15,08214,657
8,833-644-82
iscrepancy
Of which:Seasonal
adjustmentdiscrepancy
-1,1451,350
-729881
-1,1901,042
-212792
-1,355
U S official
assets, net l(unadjusted,
end ofperiod)
15,88316,22618,74719,31218,65018,95626,75630,07433,958
29,71530,074
29,94430,67130,99333,958
34,26133,87633,066
1 Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDKs), convertible currencies, and the U.S. reserveposition in the IMF.
2 Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of theTreasury.
37
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ContentsTOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING Page
Gross National Product 1Gross National Product in 1972 Dollars 2Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product 2Changes in GNP and GNP Price Measures 3Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits 3National Income 4Personal Consumption Expenditures 4Sources of Personal Income 5Disposition of Personal Income '. 6Farm Income 7Corporate Profits 8Gross Private Domestic Investment 9Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment—Nonfarm Business..... 10
EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGESStatus of the Labor Force 11Selected Unemployment Rates 12Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs 13Nonagricultural Employment 14Average Weekly Hours and Hourly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries 15Average Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries 15Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector 16
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITYIndustrial Production and Capacity Utilization 17Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures 18New Construction 19New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates 19Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade 20Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders 21
PRICESProducer Prices 22Consumer Prices 23Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods 24Changes in Consumer Prices 24Prices Received and Paid by Farmers 25
MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETSMoney Stock Measures and Liquid Assets 26Components of Money Stock Measures and Liquid Assets « 27Consumer Installment Credit 27Bank Loans and Investments, and Reserves 28Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business 29Current Assets and Liabilities of Nonfinancial Corporations 29Interest Rates and Bond Yields 30Common Stock Prices and Yields 31
FEDERAL FINANCEFederal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt 32Federal Budget Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function 33Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis 34
INTERNATIONAL STATISTICSIndustrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries 35U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports 35U.S. International Transactions 36
General Notes
Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding.Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars.Symbols used:
p Preliminary.r Revised.c Corrected.... Not available (also, not applicable).
For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office,Washington, D.C. 20402. Price $4.25 (single copy) ($5.35 foreign).
Subscription price: $25.00 per year; $31.25 for foreign mailing.
38 O U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1983 0—28-861
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