Economic Development as a Tool to Reduce Secessionism in Jammu and Kashmir
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Transcript of Economic Development as a Tool to Reduce Secessionism in Jammu and Kashmir
Economic Development as a Tool to Reduce Secessionism in Jammu and Kashmir
Zachary Jones, Corey Singletary, Bartosz Szkatula, Farha Tahir
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Kashmir Conflict
Key events
• 1947 Accession to India
• Wars in 1947, 1965, 1971
• 1972 Simla Agreement
• 1999 Kargil Conflict
• 2001 Srinigar Conflict
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Overview Evaluate current development efforts and their
predicted effects on secessionism Key economic sectors
Our prediction: current development efforts will reduce secessionist sentiment
U.S. Government can help through diplomatic, financial, and technical assistance
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Violence in Jammu and Kashmir
Source: Indiastat
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Total Incidents Trend (Total Incidents)Civilians Killed Security Forces Personnel Killed
Year
Num
ber
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Secessionism in Jammu and Kashmir Examples of secessionist groups
Harakat ul-Jihad-I-Islami, Jammu Kashmir Liberation Front, Kashmir Freedom Movement, Lashkar-e-Taiba
Primary Objectives Creation of independent state Accession to Pakistan
Platform Identity politics: ethno-nationalism Denial of rights Unfulfilled potential (social, political, economic)
Main effect on most residents: economic
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Economic Development as Tool to Reduce Secessionism
Secessionism Popular cost-benefit analysis of union vs.
independence Often viewed and addressed as social or political
Economic approach underutilized
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Analytical Framework: Theorized Effects on Secessionism
Economic Factor Effect
Absolute level of development +
Relative level of development +/-
Trade dependency -
Net capital flows -
Economic decentralization +/-
Source: Bookman (1991, 1993) with modifications
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Key Economic Sectors Agriculture
80% of population’s livelihood 40% of employment Existing land, labor, and capital
Tourism 30% of employment Popularity of existing religious sites
Infrastructure Limiting factor for above sectors Untapped potential
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Agriculture Current development efforts
Technology Information Market access Insurance
Effects on secessionism Higher capital inflow decrease Greater trade dependency decrease Higher absolute level of development increase
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Tourism Current development efforts
Heritage conservation Accommodations Accessibility Marketing
Effects on secessionism Higher capital inflow decrease Higher absolute level of development increase
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Infrastructure Current development efforts
Rail Roads Power
Effects on secessionism Higher capital inflow decrease Uncertainties
Physical capital Relative level of development
Importance of coordination
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Summary Predictions
FACTOR
Absolute Level of Development
Relative Level of Development
Trade Dependency
Net Capital Flows
Economic Decentralization TOTAL
SECTOR
Agriculture Likely Increase Likely Decrease Likely Decrease Very Likely Decrease
Likely (Minor) Increase Likely Decrease
Tourism Likely Increase Likely Decrease Uncertain Likely Decrease Unlikely Increase Likely Decrease
Infrastructure Likely Increase Uncertain Likely Decrease Likely Decrease Uncertain Uncertain
TOTAL Likely Increase Likely Decrease Likely Decrease Very Likely Decrease
Unlikely Increase
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Additional Considerations Popular perception of effects
Reliance on national planning, funding, and trade Explicit intent of efforts to reduce
secessionism Coordination of efforts
Between sectors Between agencies
Political, military, economic
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Opportunity Analysis Leverage American reputation in Kashmir
U.S. seen as “honest broker” Help legitimize India
Financial support to India Direct through national government
Technical assistance
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Thank you!
Questions?
The La Follette School of Public AffairsUniversity of Wisconsin Madison
1225 Observatory DriveMadison, WI 53706
(608) 262-3581
Economic Development as a Tool to Reduce Secessionism in Jammu and Kashmir
Zachary Jones, Corey Singletary, Bartosz Szkatula, Farha Tahir
May 6, 2010
Robert M. La Follette School of Public Affairs, University of Wisconsin Madison1225 Observatory Drive, Madison, WI 53706 • (608) 262-3581 • [email protected]
Predicted Effect of Economic Development on Secessionism
FACTOR
Absolute Level of
Development
Relative Level of
DevelopmentTrade
DependencyNet Capital
FlowsEconomic
Decentralization TOTAL
SECTOR
Agriculture Likely Increase
Likely Decrease
Likely Decrease
Very Likely Decrease
Likely (Minor) Increase
Likely Decrease
Tourism Likely Increase
Likely Decrease Uncertain Likely
DecreaseUnlikely Increase
Likely Decrease
Infrastructure Likely Increase Uncertain Likely
DecreaseLikely
Decrease Uncertain Uncertain
TOTAL Likely Increase
Likely Decrease
Likely Decrease
Very Likely Decrease
Unlikely Increase