Economia3 0 prediction markets_wrkshp pdf

Melanie Swan Principal

MS Futures Group +1-415-505-4426

[email protected] www.melanieswan.com

August 16, 2010Slides: http://slideshare.net/LaBlogga/slideshows

Economy 3.0 Prediction Markets Workshop

Image: http://wall.alphacoders.com/

“The future is something which every one reaches at the rate of sixty miles an hour,

whatever he does, whoever he is.”- C. S. Lewis

1Prediction MarketsAugust 16, 2010

Concepts in creating Economy 3.0

Policy decisions

Aggressive investment in industries of the future (energy, genomics, etc.)

New currencies

Reputation, authority, time, intention, ideas, creativity, health, personal data

Shifts in production/consumption

Micro-labor markets

3-D printing

Hyper-personalization

New paradigms

Automatic markets

Abundance injection

1Source: Arrow, K.J. et al “The Promise of Prediction Markets” Science, 2008, 320, 5878, 877-878 http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/summary/320/5878/877

Image:http://papercastlepress.com/blog/wp- content/uploads/2010/02/sciam_special-robotics.jpg


Tools in creating Economy 3.0 futures

Short term (0-5 yrs): some degree of insight and certainty

Forecasting

Scanning

Business intelligence

Trend analysis

Market research

Outlier identification

Technology evaluation checklist

Long term (5-20+ yrs): uncertainty, discontinuity

Frameworks

Scenario planning

Simulation

Wild-carding

Longitudinal studies

Multiple time frames

Prediction markets Image: Bill Frymire


Prediction markets

Speculative market

Purpose: make predictions

Value: expose hidden information

Pay-off: monetary, reputational, indirect

Accuracy: better than conventional forecasting1

1Source: Arrow, K.J. et al “The Promise of Prediction Markets” Science, 2008, 320, 5878, 877-878 http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/summary/320/5878/877

Iowa Electronic Markets: 2008 Democratic Convention Market

Clinton

Obama

Image: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/13/IEM_DCON2008.svg


Prediction markets

Examples:

Intrade Prediction Markets

Iowa Electronic Markets

Hollywood Stock Exchange

LongBets

Source: http://www.hsx.com/security/view/AVAT2


Prediction markets

Structure

Event outcome (win/loss)

Market scoring (continuum)

Question design


Prediction markets

When to use prediction markets

Clear outcome

Market liquidity

High uncertainty

Diversity of opinion

Source: http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=693480&z=1278982073468


Economy 3.0 simulation workshop

You are the world’s leading social venture capitalists

4-5 teams, $1 billion to invest

Step 1: Group Brainstorm

What key trends and events could have a big impact on how the local and world economy develops over the next year, next 5 years, next 10 years, next 20 years?

What surprises could influence economic flows, positively or negatively?

What are new paradigms that could shift the economy (3-D printing, free and abundant energy, cure of all disease, etc.)?



Image: Natasha Vita-More, Primo Posthuman

Step 2: Team competition

2010 – 2020

Explore one of the ideas from the brainstorming or a new idea for how the economy of the future could develop

Present your ideas to the group



Step 3: Voting

Each person votes simulated investment dollars on the different ideas

Winning teams are those that earn the most investment

Image:http://www.tvrage.com/shows/id-23464

Thank you!

Melanie Swan Principal

MS Futures Group 415-505-4426

[email protected] www.melanieswan.com

Slides: http://slideshare.net/LaBlogga/slideshows

Creative Commons 3.0 license

Image: http://wall.alphacoders.com/

DIAMANDIS KURZWEIL

Well, Ray, we’re still waiting for the jet pack

Futurism 2050

DIAMANDIS KURZWEIL

Well, Ray, we’re still waiting for the jet pack

Futurism 2050

MORAVEC

Economia3 0 prediction markets_wrkshp pdf

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