Econ of ai n nanotech
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Econ of Nano & AIEcon of Nano & AI
Robin Hanson
George Mason University
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Outline
• World long-term econ trend mostly steady– Now doubles in ~15 years
• So far have seen 2-4 “singularities” when– World econ growth rate increased x150-250– In much less than a previous doubling time
• Next?: by 2100, takes 5 yr, double monthly– Nanotech?– Artificial Intelligence?
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Recent US GDP Growth
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World Product, 1950-2006
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Wo
rld
Pro
du
ct
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[DeLong ‘98]
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[De Long ’98]
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0.01
0.1
1
10
-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0
Year, millions
Po
pu
lati
on
, mill
ion
s
Weiss 1984
Hawks et. Al. 2000
Deevey 1960
Out of Africa Model
PaleoDemography
• DeLong 98 follows Kremer 93 in using Deevey 60 est.
• I substitute Hawks et al. 00, who posit exp. pop. growth from ~10K 2MYA.
• Based on Multi-regional model (vs. Out of Africa)
• 2MYA - simul., signif. new size, pelvis, brain, teeth, …
• DNA says inbreeding pop ~10K, before 1.5MYA
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0.001
0.01
0.1
1
10
-600 -500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0
Re
lati
ve
Bra
in S
ize
Millions of Years
Bigger Brains
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World Product, 1950-2006
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Wo
rld
Pro
du
ct
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World Product, 1-2000
0.1
1.0
10.0
100.0
1,000.0
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Year
Wo
rld
Pro
du
ct (
su
bs
iste
nce
bill
ion
s)
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World Product, 10K BC-2K AD
0.001
0.010
0.100
1.000
10.000
100.000
1,000.000
-10000 -8000 -6000 -4000 -2000 0 2000
Year
Wo
rld
Pro
du
ct (
su
bs
iste
nce
bill
ion
s) Singularities!
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10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
1,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
100,000,000,000
1,000,000,000,000
-2000000 -1500000 -1000000 -500000 0 500000
Year
Wor
ld P
rodu
ct (s
ubsi
sten
ce h
uman
s)
World Product, 2 Million BC+
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Figure 1. World Product, Data vs. Models
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
1,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
100,000,000,000
1,000,000,000,000
10,000,000,000,000
101001,00010,000100,0001,000,00010,000,000
Years before 2050
Wor
ld P
rodu
ct
Hyperbolic Model
Sum of Exp Model
CES Combined Exp Model
World Product Estimates
Error9.6%
2.0%
1.7%
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Figure 2. World Product vs. Growth Rate1.E-06
1.E-05
1.E-04
1.E-03
1.E-02
1.E-01
1.E+00
1.E+04 1.E+05 1.E+06 1.E+07 1.E+08 1.E+09 1.E+10 1.E+11 1.E+12 1.E+13 1.E+14
World Product
WP
An
nu
al G
row
th R
ate
CES Exp Model, One New Mode
CES Exp Model, No New Mode
Hyperbolic Model
World Product Estimates
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1.E-8
1.E-7
1.E-6
1.E-5
1.E-4
1.E-3
1.E-2
1.E-1
1.E+0
1.E+1
1.E+2
1.E+01.E+11.E+21.E+31.E+41.E+51.E+61.E+71.E+81.E+9
Years before 2050
Annu
al G
row
th R
ate
World Product Growth Rate
Could It Happen Again?
Brains
Hunting
Farming
Industry
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Growth Mode Statistics
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Forecasting The Next Mode
Growth Mode
DT Factor
Next DT
WP Factor
New Date from WP
New Date from #DT
Brains "67K" 2072 2120
Hunting 153 2.1wk 480 1996 2075
Farming 247 1.3wk 190 1976 2067
Industry 145 2.3wk >590
2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047
6.1% 6.1% 6.6% 8.0% 14.0% 40.5% 147.3% 476.2% 1023.2%
Sample growth rate transition Transition date
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First Adopter Gains
Why Gains Falling:• More ways to copy innovations• Larger division of labor
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Knowledge Was Always Key
Growth Mode Encoded Shared
Brains DNA Sex Hunting Culture Watch/Talk Farming Culture Talk/Object Industry Writing Expert Net
? ? ?
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What Could Cause A New Singularity?!
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Space
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Fusion
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Nanotech
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Robots
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Five Steps to Radical Nanotech
1. Atomic Precision – put some atoms where wantGrowth can go far; implications of specific products
2. General Plants – like PCs beat signal processorScale economy to make, easier design, efficient enoughMore differentiation, faster evolution of products
3. Local Production – in homes, highly automatedMaybe buy lifestyle packages of designs “print” at home File-sharing, open source, in product designs possible
4. Usually Idle – fixed » marginal costs, like “info”5. Self-Reproduction – sudden large cost drop?
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Industry Shares of US GDP
Construction
Communications
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
ManufacturingFinance, insurance, real
estate
Services
Government Transportation
Electric, gas, trash
Mining
Farming, forestry, f ishing
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Factor Shares of Income
Labor
Human Capital
Other Non-Human Capital
Stock Dividends Natural Resources
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My Views On Singularity
Yes: General machine intelligence will come, make huge difference
Not soon: roughly 20 to 200 years awayNot trend: econ growth has been steadyNot local: an integrated economy grows
together, not basement takes over worldNot hand-coded: probably brain emulation Not horizon: we can see past, if fuzzier◦New economy doubles weekly to monthly◦Natural wages fall below human subsistence◦ “Economics of Singularity,” IEEE Spectrum 6/08
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Economics of Robots
• Staple of fiction – ancient legends to TV now• If have more of X, do you want Y more (complement)
or less (substitute)?• Machine as Substitute to human labor
– Ricardo 1821, most science fiction– Wages fall to machine cost
• Automation as Complement to human labor– Wicksell 1923, modern economics consensus– Wages have risen as automation cost have fallen
• So are robots a substitute or complement?
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Robots Substitute On Task, But Tasks Are Complements
Hum
an A
dvan
tage
Useful Mental Tasks
SubstituteFor Task
HumansDo These
MachinesDo These
Tasks AreComplements
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A Rising Tide
Hum
an A
dvan
tage
Useful Mental Tasks
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A Rising Tide
Hum
an A
dvan
tage
Useful Mental Tasks
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A Simple Robot Growth Model
PgIIYRHHL
RMPKCHMKLAY
PK )( Y, ,ˆ
)(ˆ
M
Igggg YPAH ,,,,Assume constant:
HMKLAY gggggg )1(
PYYML
HYYML
gggRYY
gggRYY
ML
L
,0 ,
,0 ,
Y
Y
g
g
ˆSeekThese
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Simple Growth Models
Rate
Level
Rate Level
00
exp
foom
slowing
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A Complex Growth Model
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Needed To Emulate Brains
1. Model each brain cell type
2. Scan – freeze, slice, 2D scan
3. Computer (very parallel task)
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Pivotal: What Ready Last?
1. Computing – Other techs fast or fine brain detail key– Broad smooth anticipated transition
2. Scanning (least likely?)
– Large coalitions, first dominates; diversify!– Most in future descend from one human?
3. Modeling– May be big surprise, so disruptive change
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Cheap For Robots
• Immortality (even so, most can’t afford)• Travel – transmit to new body (but security?)• Nature – don’t need ecosystems• Labor – work less tool intensive• Copies!
– Malthusian population explosion, rapid growth– Wages may fall to fast-falling hardware cost
• Depends on mental-task landscape shape• Happens if they slave or if free• Only Draconian population/wage laws could stop
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Emulations Feel Human
• They remember a human life• Retain human tendencies
– love, gossip, argue, sing, violate, play, work, innovate
• More alienated worlds - as were farms, factories– Office work in virtual reality– Physical work in android bodies
• More unequal abilities, like our fantasy– Can run minds faster, use wildly different bodies
• Many won’t believe are conscious, or “is me”– But same social implications, few dozen is plenty
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Humans Eclipsed
• Wages well below human subsistence– Some humans may find servant jobs
• But rich if held non-wage assets– Investments double as fast as economy!
• Robot-Human war unlikely if integrated– E.g., left-handed don’t war against righties
• Most emulations of the few best humans– First mover advantage to show quality
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More Implications
• Copies rent bodies, or own on loan– Evicted if can’t pay!!
• To recoup training investment, copy cabal limits copy wage– Security to prevent bootleg copies!
• Fast growth discourages transport, encourages local production
• Laws hold copies co-responsible
• <1cm robots seem feasible– Mind/body sped up with size reduction– 0.2in. tall => Subjective year/day in 24hr/4min
• One skyscraper holds billions - is megacity– City radius now is hour travel distance =>
10sec