ECON 338 Assignment v2

42
1 133.063 2 171.162 3 209.297 4 247.468 5 133.315 et et 6 171.486 -0.01289 -0.02112782 7 209.693 0.020321 0.017475192 8 247.936 0.063435 0.065200221 9 133.567 -0.06276 -0.0508436 10 171.81 -0.02166 -0.03407887 11 210.089 0.018883 0.015063428 12 248.404 0.048927 0.054476585 13 133.819 -0.0474 -0.03808579 14 172.134 -0.01343 -0.02210345 15 210.485 0.020078 0.016940359 16 248.872 0.062677 0.06432669 17 134.071 -0.06233 -0.05074133 18 172.458 -0.02151 -0.03400409 19 210.881 0.018754 0.014725467 20 249.34 0.049297 0.054473039 21 134.323 -0.04816 -0.03901518 22 172.782 -0.01392 -0.02299699 23 211.277 0.019858 0.016451883 24 249.808 0.061982 0.06352691 25 134.575 -0.06193 -0.05064437 26 173.106 -0.02137 -0.03393243 27 211.673 0.018639 0.014417783 28 250.276 0.049644 0.054472653 29 134.827 -0.04886 -0.03986646 30 173.43 -0.01437 -0.02381536 31 212.069 0.01966 0.016005743 32 250.744 0.061346 0.062794644 33 135.079 -0.06156 -0.05055255 34 173.754 -0.02124 -0.03386388 35 212.465 0.018538 0.014137667 36 251.212 0.049967 0.05447492 37 135.331 -0.0495 -0.04064622 38 174.078 -0.01477 -0.02456489 39 212.861 0.019481 0.015598265 40 251.68 0.060763 0.062124183 41 135.583 -0.06121 -0.05046569 42 174.402 -0.02111 -0.03379845 43 213.257 0.018448 0.013882656

description

Kmack assignment econometrics

Transcript of ECON 338 Assignment v2

1 133.0632 171.1623 209.2974 247.4685 133.315et et6 171.486 -0.01289 -0.021127827 209.693 0.020321 0.0174751928 247.936 0.063435 0.0652002219 133.567 -0.06276 -0.050843610 171.81 -0.02166 -0.0340788711 210.089 0.018883 0.01506342812 248.404 0.048927 0.05447658513 133.819 -0.0474 -0.0380857914 172.134 -0.01343 -0.0221034515 210.485 0.020078 0.01694035916 248.872 0.062677 0.0643266917 134.071 -0.06233 -0.0507413318 172.458 -0.02151 -0.0340040919 210.881 0.018754 0.01472546720 249.34 0.049297 0.05447303921 134.323 -0.04816 -0.0390151822 172.782 -0.01392 -0.0229969923 211.277 0.019858 0.01645188324 249.808 0.061982 0.0635269125 134.575 -0.06193 -0.0506443726 173.106 -0.02137 -0.0339324327 211.673 0.018639 0.01441778328 250.276 0.049644 0.05447265329 134.827 -0.04886 -0.0398664630 173.43 -0.01437 -0.0238153631 212.069 0.01966 0.01600574332 250.744 0.061346 0.06279464433 135.079 -0.06156 -0.0505525534 173.754 -0.02124 -0.0338638835 212.465 0.018538 0.01413766736 251.212 0.049967 0.0544749237 135.331 -0.0495 -0.0406462238 174.078 -0.01477 -0.0245648939 212.861 0.019481 0.01559826540 251.68 0.060763 0.06212418341 135.583 -0.06121 -0.0504656942 174.402 -0.02111 -0.0337984543 213.257 0.018448 0.01388265644 252.148 0.050269 0.05447939445 135.835 -0.05009 -0.0413604646 174.726 -0.01515 -0.0252513847 213.653 0.01932 0.01522609648 252.616 0.060229 0.06151030249 136.087 -0.06089 -0.050383650 175.05 -0.02099 -0.0337360851 214.049 0.018369 0.01365050252 253.084 0.050551 0.05448568753 136.339 -0.05063 -0.042014754 175.374 -0.01549 -0.0258801555 214.445 0.019175 0.01488617456 253.552 0.05974 0.0609482257 136.591 -0.06059 -0.0503061158 175.698 -0.02087 -0.0336767359 214.841 0.018299 0.01343916160 254.02 0.050814 0.05449345961 136.843 -0.05112 -0.04261462 176.022 -0.0158 -0.0264560563 215.237 0.019044 0.01457570264 254.488 0.059291 0.06043355765 137.095 -0.06031 -0.0502330166 176.346 -0.02077 -0.0336203267 215.633 0.018237 0.01324677268 254.956 0.05106 0.05450241769 137.347 -0.05157 -0.0431629670 176.67 -0.01608 -0.0269835571 216.029 0.018925 0.01429212772 255.424 0.05888 0.05996230673 137.599 -0.06005 -0.0501641274 176.994 -0.02066 -0.0335667975 216.425 0.018182 0.01307163776 255.892 0.051289 0.05451230477 137.851 -0.05199 -0.0436658378 177.318 -0.01634 -0.027466779 216.821 0.018818 0.01403311680 256.36 0.058503 0.05953080181 138.103 -0.0598 -0.0500992482 177.642 -0.02057 -0.0335160583 217.217 0.018134 0.01291221384 256.828 0.051502 0.05452290185 138.355 -0.05237 -0.0441264986 177.966 -0.01658 -0.0279092587 217.613 0.018722 0.0137965488 257.296 0.058157 0.05913568389 138.607 -0.05958 -0.050038290 178.29 -0.02048 -0.0334680191 218.009 0.018092 0.01276709392 257.764 0.051701 0.05453401793 138.859 -0.05272 -0.0445484894 178.614 -0.0168 -0.0283146295 218.405 0.018635 0.01358045396 258.232 0.05784 0.05877387997 139.111 -0.05936 -0.0499807998 178.938 -0.02039 -0.0334225899 218.801 0.018054 0.012634996100 258.7 0.051886 0.054545489101 139.363 -0.05304 -0.04493505102 179.262 -0.017 -0.02868593103 219.197 0.018556 0.01338308104 259.168 0.057549 0.058442574105 139.615 -0.05917 -0.04992685106 179.586 -0.02031 -0.03337965107 219.593 0.018021 0.012514756108 259.636 0.052058 0.054557178109 139.867 -0.05333 -0.04528918110 179.91 -0.01718 -0.02902604111 219.989 0.018485 0.013202798112 260.104 0.057283 0.058139195113 140.119 -0.05899 -0.0498762114 180.234 -0.02023 -0.03333913115 220.385 0.017992 0.012405311116 260.572 0.052218 0.054568965117 140.371 -0.0536 -0.0456136118 180.558 -0.01734 -0.0293376119 220.781 0.018421 0.013038126120 261.04 0.057038 0.057861383121 140.623 -0.05882 -0.04982866122 180.882 -0.02016 -0.03330091123 221.177 0.017967 0.012305694124 261.508 0.052367 0.054580752125 140.875 -0.05385 -0.0459108126 181.206 -0.0175 -0.02962299127 221.573 0.018363 0.01288771128 261.976 0.056814 0.057606981129 141.127 -0.05866 -0.04978407130 181.53 -0.02009 -0.0332649131 221.969 0.017945 0.012215024132 262.444 0.052506 0.054592453133 141.379 -0.05408 -0.04618308134 181.854 -0.01764 -0.02988442135 222.365 0.01831 0.012750317136 262.912 0.056608 0.057374011137 141.631 -0.05851 -0.04974227138 182.178 -0.02003 -0.033231139 222.761 0.017925 0.012132499140 263.38 0.052635 0.054604001141 141.883 -0.05429 -0.04643252142 182.502 -0.01776 -0.0301239143 223.157 0.018263 0.012624816144 263.848 0.056419 0.057160666145 142.135 -0.05838 -0.04970311146 182.826 -0.01997 -0.0331991147 223.553 0.017908 0.01205739148 264.316 0.052755 0.054615337149 142.387 -0.05448 -0.04666104150 183.15 -0.01788 -0.03034328151 223.949 0.01822 0.012510179152 264.784 0.056245 0.05696529153 142.639 -0.05825 -0.04966643154 183.474 -0.01992 -0.0331691155 224.345 0.017893 0.011989031156 265.252 0.052866 0.054626415157 142.891 -0.05465 -0.04687041158 183.798 -0.01799 -0.03054425159 224.741 0.018181 0.012405463160 265.72 0.056086 0.056786367161 143.143 -0.05813 -0.0496321162 184.122 -0.01987 -0.03314092163 225.137 0.01788 0.011926818164 266.188 0.052969 0.054637198165 143.395 -0.05482 -0.04706222166 184.446 -0.01808 -0.03072835167 225.533 0.018146 0.012309809168 266.656 0.05594 0.056622509169 143.647 -0.05802 -0.04959999170 184.77 -0.01982 -0.03311446171 225.929 0.017869 0.011870198172 267.124 0.053065 0.054647657173 143.899 -0.05496 -0.04723796174 185.094 -0.01817 -0.03089701175 226.325 0.018114 0.012222432176 267.592 0.055805 0.056472445177 144.151 -0.05792 -0.04956995178 185.418 -0.01977 -0.03308964179 226.721 0.017859 0.01181867180 268.06 0.053154 0.05465777181 144.403 -0.0551 -0.04739897182 185.742 -0.01826 -0.03105152183 227.117 0.018086 0.012142615184 268.528 0.055682 0.056335012185 144.655 -0.05783 -0.04954188186 186.066 -0.01973 -0.03306635187 227.513 0.01785 0.011771778188 268.996 0.053237 0.054667521189 144.907 -0.05523 -0.04754649190 186.39 -0.01833 -0.03119307191 227.909 0.01806 0.012069704192 269.464 0.055569 0.056209146193 145.159 -0.05774 -0.04951564194 186.714 -0.01969 -0.03304452195 228.305 0.017843 0.011729104196 269.932 0.053314 0.054676899197 145.411 0 0198 187.038 0 0199 228.701 0 0200 270.4 0 0AR1 -0.3616MA1 0.6725MA2 0.3188SMA4 -0.9605270.362324et-0.019357760.026591018 THIS IS HOW THE LAST 4 VALUES WERE GENERATED0.071126146 197 145.411 0.7-0.05504337 198 187.038 0.9-0.01646225 199 228.701 1.10.017636112 200 270.4 1.30.047576921-0.0453854-0.019423810.0260688660.070025601-0.05483084-0.016747130.0178022360.048297384-0.04592288-0.019481690.0255800620.069006456-0.05463955-0.017014390.0179510.04895765-0.04642318-0.019539480.0251247270.068061852-0.05446737-0.017265240.0180840020.049562595-0.04688896-0.019596970.0247004930.067186243-0.0543126-0.017500740.018202680.050116716-0.04732267-0.019653950.0243051650.066374498-0.05417369-0.017721860.0183083470.050624153-0.04772659-0.019710280.0239367060.065621874-0.0540492-0.017929520.0184022060.051088711-0.04810283-0.019765810.0235932260.064923984-0.05393784-0.018124580.0184853570.051513894-0.04845335-0.019820420.0232729750.064276773-0.05383841-0.018307830.0185588050.051902923-0.04877997-0.0198740.0229743240.063676488-0.05374981-0.018480020.0186234660.052258763-0.04908437-0.019926480.0226957660.06311966-0.05367106-0.018641840.018680180.05258414-0.04936812-0.019977790.0224358990.062603077-0.05360123-0.018793960.0187297120.052881561-0.04963266-0.020027860.0221934230.062123771-0.05353949-0.018936970.018772760.053153331-0.04987935-0.020076660.0219671320.061678996-0.05348507-0.019071440.0188099620.053401569-0.05010943-0.020124140.0217559040.061266209-0.05343728-0.01919790.0188418990.053628225-0.05032405-0.020170290.0215586990.06088306-0.05339549-0.019316860.01886910.05383509-0.0505243-0.020215090.0213745510.060527372-0.05335911-0.019428780.0188920470.05402381-0.05071118-0.020258530.0212025610.060197133-0.05332761-0.019534080.0189111790.054195899-0.0508856-0.02030060.0210418970.059890479-0.0533005-0.019633180.0189268950.054352748-0.05104843-0.020341320.0208917810.059605685-0.05327736-0.01972640.018939560.054495634-0.05120048-0.020380680.0207514950.059341155-0.05325777-0.019814280.0189495020.054625731-0.05134247-0.020418710.020620370.059095412-0.05324137-0.019896960.0189570220.054744117-0.05147511-0.020455410.0204977820.058867088-0.05322784-0.019974830.0189623910.054851783-0.05159903-0.020490820.0203831530.058654917-0.05321685-0.020048160.0189658560.05494963700 ARIMA 1 !"e#00 196269.878684197 145.46634198187.001814199228.664815200270.362324ARIMA 2 !"e#196269.877326197145.458675198187.022183199228.658036200270.355775ARIMA 3 !"e#196269.877049197145.462723198187.023747199228.650428200270.348633ARIMA 1 e""$"et et%20.0533158-0.05533992 0.003062510.036185950.001309420.036185490.001309390.03767560.00141945SSE0.00710077ARIMA 2 e""$"et Et%20.054674-0.04767539 0.002272940.01581650.000250160.042963680.001845880.044224760.00195583SSE0.00632481ARIMA 3 e""$"et et%20.05495081-0.05172256 0.002675220.014253180.000203150.050571970.002557520.051366610.00263853SSE0.00807443t &t St 't (t &%t1111 133.063 130 40 12 171.162 170.2324 40.11621.004368623 209.297 210.13828 40.011040.996797234 247.468 249.613056 39.7429080.993125185 133.315 258.14777124.13881160.613143216 171.486 259.97728712.98416350.728569057 209.693 260.4425116.724694080.843472428 247.936 263.6642274.973205020.950903059 133.567 258.477907 -0.10655743 0.5360241310 171.81 253.860763 -2.36185082 0.6871444711 210.089 251.014392 -2.60411077 0.8382624612 248.404 250.974141 -1.32218127 0.9819880813 133.819 249.651783 -1.32226969 0.5360229114 172.134 248.764865 -1.10459364 0.690992615 210.485 248.347572 -0.76094346 0.845686116 248.872 248.756679 -0.17591784 0.9967684917 134.071 248.888963 -0.02181697 0.5381469518 172.458 249.0097370.049478160.6922587819 210.881 249.119541 0.07964110.8463414220 249.34 249.389017 0.17455870.9991964621 134.323 249.5714260.178483650.5382011222 172.782 249.7182540.162656050.6919779723 211.277 249.831860.13813107 0.845809724 249.808 249.977771 0.14202120.9992959725 134.575 250.105020.13463507 0.538099426 173.106 250.2239530.126783780.6918390127 211.673 250.3327470.117788710.8456151928 250.276 250.4508930.117967660.9993005429 134.827 250.5673920.11723311 0.538089330 173.43 250.6836410.116741170.6918303231 212.069 250.7976360.115367880.8455855632 250.744 250.9143040.116018240.9993171233 135.079 251.0311660.116440020.5380950934 173.754 251.14832 0.11679710.6918366235 212.465 251.2648440.116660650.8455826236 251.212 251.381937 0.11687660.9993226237 135.331 251.4990830.117011210.5380969338 174.078 251.6163170.117122830.6918385839 212.861 251.733340.117073050.8455815540 251.68 251.8504510.117091670.9993230941 135.583 251.9675570.117098950.5380970342 174.402 252.0846870.117114670.6918388643 213.257 252.2017570.117092220.8455810744 252.148 252.3188390.117087040.9993229645 135.835 252.435918 0.1170830.5380969746 174.726 252.5530070.117085870.6918389147 213.653 252.6700820.117080440.8455809548 252.616 252.787159 0.1170790.9993229249 136.087 252.9042360.117078030.5380969650 175.05 253.0213170.117079440.6918389351 214.049 253.1383950.117078780.8455809352 253.084 253.2554740.117078780.9993229253 136.339 253.3725530.117078680.5380969654 175.374 253.489632 0.11707920.6918389455 214.445 253.6067110.117079180.8455809356 253.552 253.7237910.117079220.9993229257 136.591 253.840870.117079180.5380969658 175.698 253.957949 0.11707930.6918389559 214.841 254.0750290.117079290.8455809360 254.02 254.1921080.117079290.9993229261 136.843 254.3091870.117079270.5380969662 176.022 254.4262660.117079290.6918389563 215.237 254.5433460.117079280.8455809364 254.488 254.6604250.117079280.9993229265 137.095 254.7775040.117079270.5380969666 176.346 254.8945830.117079270.6918389567 215.633 255.0116630.117079270.8455809368 254.956 255.1287420.117079270.9993229269 137.347 255.2458210.117079270.5380969670 176.67 255.3629010.117079270.6918389571 216.029 255.479980.117079270.8455809372 255.424 255.5970590.117079270.9993229273 137.599 255.7141380.117079270.5380969674 176.994 255.8312180.117079270.6918389575 216.425 255.9482970.117079270.8455809376 255.892 256.0653760.117079270.9993229277 137.851 256.1824550.117079270.5380969678 177.318 256.2995350.117079270.6918389579 216.821 256.4166140.117079270.8455809380 256.36 256.5336930.117079270.9993229281 138.103 256.6507730.117079270.5380969682 177.642 256.7678520.117079270.6918389583 217.217 256.8849310.117079270.8455809384 256.828 257.002010.117079270.9993229285 138.355 257.119090.117079270.5380969686 177.966 257.2361690.117079270.6918389587 217.613 257.3532480.117079270.8455809388 257.296 257.4703270.117079270.9993229289 138.607 257.5874070.117079270.5380969690 178.29 257.7044860.117079270.6918389591 218.009 257.8215650.117079270.8455809392 257.764 257.9386450.117079270.9993229293 138.859 258.0557240.117079270.5380969694 178.614 258.1728030.117079270.6918389595 218.405 258.2898820.117079270.8455809396 258.232 258.4069620.117079270.9993229297 139.111 258.5240410.117079270.5380969698 178.938 258.641120.117079270.6918389599 218.801 258.7581990.117079270.84558093100 258.7 258.8752790.117079270.99932292101 139.363 258.9923580.117079270.53809696102 179.262 259.1094370.117079270.69183895103 219.197 259.2265170.117079270.84558093104 259.168 259.3435960.117079270.99932292105 139.615 259.4606750.117079270.53809696106 179.586 259.5777540.117079270.69183895107 219.593 259.6948340.117079270.84558093108 259.636 259.8119130.117079270.99932292109 139.867 259.9289920.117079270.53809696110 179.91 260.0460710.117079270.69183895111 219.989 260.1631510.117079270.84558093112 260.104 260.280230.117079270.99932292113 140.119 260.3973090.117079270.53809696114 180.234 260.5143890.117079270.69183895115 220.385 260.6314680.117079270.84558093116 260.572 260.7485470.117079270.99932292117 140.371 260.8656260.117079270.53809696118 180.558 260.9827060.117079270.69183895119 220.781 261.0997850.117079270.84558093120 261.04 261.2168640.117079270.99932292121 140.623 261.3339430.117079270.53809696122 180.882 261.4510230.117079270.69183895123 221.177 261.5681020.117079270.84558093124 261.508 261.6851810.117079270.99932292125 140.875 261.802260.117079270.53809696126 181.206 261.919340.117079270.69183895127 221.573 262.0364190.117079270.84558093128 261.976 262.1534980.117079270.99932292129 141.127 262.2705780.117079270.53809696130 181.53 262.3876570.117079270.69183895131 221.969 262.5047360.117079270.84558093132 262.444 262.6218150.117079270.99932292133 141.379 262.7388950.117079270.53809696134 181.854 262.8559740.117079270.69183895135 222.365 262.9730530.117079270.84558093136 262.912 263.0901320.117079270.99932292137 141.631 263.2072120.117079270.53809696138 182.178 263.3242910.117079270.69183895139 222.761 263.441370.117079270.84558093140 263.38 263.558450.117079270.99932292141 141.883 263.6755290.117079270.53809696142 182.502 263.7926080.117079270.69183895143 223.157 263.9096870.117079270.84558093144 263.848 264.0267670.117079270.99932292145 142.135 264.1438460.117079270.53809696146 182.826 264.2609250.117079270.69183895147 223.553 264.3780040.117079270.84558093148 264.316 264.4950840.117079270.99932292149 142.387 264.6121630.117079270.53809696150 183.15 264.7292420.117079270.69183895151 223.949 264.8463220.117079270.84558093152 264.784 264.9634010.117079270.99932292153 142.639 265.080480.117079270.53809696154 183.474 265.1975590.117079270.69183895155 224.345 265.3146390.117079270.84558093156 265.252 265.4317180.117079270.99932292157 142.891 265.5487970.117079270.53809696158 183.798 265.6658760.117079270.69183895159 224.741 265.7829560.117079270.84558093160 265.72 265.9000350.117079270.99932292161 143.143 266.0171140.117079270.53809696162 184.122 266.1341940.117079270.69183895163 225.137 266.2512730.117079270.84558093164 266.188 266.3683520.117079270.99932292165 143.395 266.4854310.117079270.53809696166 184.446 266.6025110.117079270.69183895167 225.533 266.719590.117079270.84558093168 266.656 266.8366690.117079270.99932292169 143.647 266.9537480.117079270.53809696170 184.77 267.0708280.117079270.69183895171 225.929 267.1879070.117079270.84558093172 267.124 267.3049860.117079270.99932292173 143.899 267.4220660.117079270.53809696174 185.094 267.5391450.117079270.69183895175 226.325 267.6562240.117079270.84558093176 267.592 267.7733030.117079270.99932292177 144.151 267.8903830.117079270.53809696178 185.418 268.0074620.117079270.69183895179 226.721 268.1245410.117079270.84558093180 268.06 268.241620.117079270.99932292181 144.403 268.35870.117079270.53809696182 185.742 268.4757790.117079270.69183895183 227.117 268.5928580.117079270.84558093184 268.528 268.7099380.117079270.99932292185 144.655 268.8270170.117079270.53809696186 186.066 268.9440960.117079270.69183895187 227.513 269.0611750.117079270.84558093188 268.996 269.1782550.117079270.99932292189 144.907 269.2953340.117079270.53809696190 186.39 269.4124130.117079270.69183895191 227.909 269.5294920.117079270.84558093192 269.464 269.6465720.117079270.99932292193 145.159 269.7636510.117079270.53809696194 186.714 269.880730.117079270.69183895195 228.305 269.997810.117079270.84558093196 269.932 270.1148890.117079270.99932292197 145.411 270.2319680.117079270.53809696 145.411198 187.038 270.3490470.117079270.69183895 187.038199 228.701 270.4661270.117079270.84558093 228.701200 270.4 270.5832060.117079270.99932292 270.4& S ' ()*!+) 'et) ,)--) -T+e.e /)*0e. )"e $!t1-)*2T+e.e /)*0e. )"e )*.$ t+e 131t1)* /)*0e.0.2 0.5 0.8 00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001234&t &%t et et%2145.411 145.411 0 0187.038 187.038 0 0228.701 228.701 0 0270.4 270.4 0 0SSE SOLVER DID NOT 4HANGE THE VALUES0SSE 5E6ORE SOLVER0SOLVER DID NOT 4HANGE THE VALUEST+e.e )"e t+e $!t1-)* /)*0e. 7"$- .$*/e"t &t St 't )*!+) 'et)1 133.063 130 400.004369310.939555162 171.162 170.00507740.00477033 209.297 210.00673340.00184394 247.468 249.99747639.99141435 133.315 289.30433439.34823566 171.486 327.9658638.70303447 209.693 365.98301838.05861598 247.936 403.35956 37.417779 133.567 439.43503436.156608110 171.81 474.26432634.909521711 210.089 507.86705433.681716712 248.404 540.2679332.478296813 133.819 570.82841930.676409914 172.134 599.62877528.913753915 210.485 626.71590627.197541416 248.872 652.14369725.534762617 134.071 675.3032723.303141718 172.458 696.30750721.143193819 210.881 715.23734219.063620520 249.34 732.18201817.072755621 134.323 746.56794714.548333622 172.782 758.54566612.133099823 211.277 768.2345679.8366400324 249.808 775.7630627.6680104425 134.575 780.596025.0043222326 173.106 782.9241652.4899064327 211.673 782.90722 0.134580828 250.276 780.713982 -2.0525328629 134.827 775.848338 -4.6956062830 173.43 768.541097 -7.1493815731 212.069 758.991554 -9.4044647932 250.744 747.40749 -11.452318733 135.079 733.329758 -13.919039534 173.754 717.026576 -16.159073135 212.465 698.733521 -18.164066336 251.212 678.69346 -19.926667337 135.331 656.47974 -22.075479438 174.078 632.392953 -23.965213839 212.861 606.699386 -25.589096940 251.68 579.670906 -26.941476341 135.583 550.906789 -28.653948642 174.402 520.732972 -30.081948143 213.257 489.439004 -31.220707944 252.148 457.317911 -32.066669145 135.835 423.986693 -33.254782546 174.726 389.788114 -34.141531447 213.653 355.026169 -34.724444448 252.616 320.005985 -35.002308349 136.087 284.353014 -35.61364250 175.05 248.4174 -35.916152151 214.049 212.508011 -35.909798252 253.084 176.932402 -35.595808353 136.339 141.314758 -35.616324454 175.374 106.002868 -35.330291955 214.445 71.300762 -34.740076456 253.552 37.5087877 -33.849282257 136.591 4.24032426 -33.303570958 175.698 -28.1685816 -32.462983759 214.841 -59.4279406 -31.332111960 254.02 -89.253602 -29.916718661 136.843 -118.051719 -28.86573162 176.022 -145.506428 -27.539997963 215.237 -171.349896 -25.946014264 254.488 -195.321927 -24.091347965 137.095 -217.85558 -22.627807866 176.346 -238.662131 -20.916637167 215.633 -257.502422 -18.965794668 254.956 -274.14626 -16.784188469 137.347 -289.059172 -15.02602170 176.67 -301.984625 -13.052421671 216.029 -312.716655 -10.872285872 255.424 -321.059054 -8.4953180673 137.599 -327.513235 -6.5775569674 176.994 -331.857705 -4.4794483175 216.425 -333.921965 -2.2102454876 255.892 -333.545474 0.220136277 137.851 -331.266623 2.154412478 177.318 -326.899464.2334130379 216.821 -320.308862 6.448118880 256.36 -311.369272 8.7889927581 138.103 -300.654798 10.598088682 177.642 -288.0131912.518088583 217.217 -273.3422914.540773484 256.828 -256.548572 16.657539185 138.355 -238.238359 18.210317286 177.966 -218.289083 19.84416587 217.613 -196.627033 21.552168788 257.296 -173.185702 23.327140489 138.607 -148.598167 24.511351190 178.29 -122.765638 25.752670491 218.009 -95.6365393 27.045900692 257.764 -67.1646945 28.385653993 138.859 -38.0028852 29.114894794 178.614 -8.06873641 29.884629195 218.405 22.6748512 30.69166896 258.232 54.261639831.532683197 139.111 86.027279931.751559198 178.938 118.04606232.002630199 218.801 150.34909232.2848725100 258.7 182.96632132.5971393101 139.363 215.23051732.2843207102 179.262 247.2166232.0041287103 219.197 278.95848631.7577188104 259.168 310.49097531.5461028105 139.615 341.15263330.7151183106 179.586 371.027613 29.925762107 219.593 400.16095629.1812402108 259.636 428.60069728.4845612109 139.867 455.69923427.1823147110 179.91 481.55777225.9385539111 219.989 506.240118 24.758277112 260.104 529.81477423.6461995113 140.119 551.65495521.9493453114 180.234 571.885544 20.334479115 220.385 590.59536118.8080194116 260.572 607.87922817.3759945117 140.371 623.13661415.3854446118 180.558 636.52107213.5054076119 220.781 648.15097311.7432662120 261.04 658.15152210.1058872121 140.623 665.952012 7.9398389122 180.882 671.7377395.91593162123 221.177 675.6591834.04200059124 261.508 677.8739682.32523119125 140.875 677.8427250.11119394126 181.206 675.783474 -1.92805889127 221.573 671.879254 -3.78477164128 261.976 666.320025 -5.4519719129 141.127 658.597144 -7.58561629130 181.53 648.960218 -9.51293495131 221.969 637.623192 -11.2267695132 262.444 624.806202 -12.7208694133 141.379 610.028671 -14.6532161134 181.854 593.568652 -16.3508071135 222.365 575.667383 -17.8075514136 262.912 556.571114 -19.0183732137 141.631 535.822836 -20.6437137138 182.178 513.724138 -22.0107521139 222.761 490.53825 -23.1148572140 263.38 466.531864 -23.9524975141 141.883 441.265531 -25.1869182142 182.502 415.058045 -26.1457984143 223.157 388.18801 -26.8262579144 263.848 360.935685 -27.226572145 142.135 332.872066 -28.0130233146 182.826 304.325843 -28.5139942147 223.553 275.583514 -28.7285276148 264.316 246.931279 -28.6568465149 142.387 217.942857 -28.9683801150 183.15 188.949028 -28.9922908151 223.949 160.236339 -28.7295893152 264.784 132.089079 -28.1824587153 142.639 104.075854 -28.0234542154 183.474 76.5217578 -27.5824664155 224.345 49.7056931 -26.8623897156 265.252 23.9024618 -25.8672519157 142.891 -1.33187042 -25.272589158 183.798 -25.6851461 -24.4088434159 224.741 -48.8931506 -23.280589160 265.72 -70.6973776 -21.8934654161 143.143 -91.5608491 -20.9257293162 184.122 -111.190604 -19.7080898163 225.137 -129.343064 -18.2464897164 266.188 -145.781632 -16.5478474165 143.395 -160.993674 -15.2927853166 184.446 -174.710308 -13.811904167 225.533 -186.713077 -12.1121218168 266.656 -196.791368 -10.2012253169 143.647 -205.460541 -8.76177737170 184.77 -212.478997 -7.12383149171 225.929 -217.656163 -5.29483129172 267.124 -220.809705 -3.2829722173 143.899 -222.484808 -1.77229035174 185.094 -222.468517 -0.09181953175 226.325 -220.599018 1.75094751176 267.592 -216.722664 3.74788449177 144.151 -211.414386 5.21395958178 185.418 -204.489325 6.82163413179 226.721 -195.813406 8.56383737180 268.06 -185.2601810.4329772181 144.403 -173.432388 11.7434831182 185.742 -160.170872 13.1697588183 227.117 -145.366475 14.7055909184 268.528 -128.916705 16.3443437185 144.655 -111.448455 17.4003152186 186.066 -92.8242351 18.5502416187 227.513 -72.95539319.7891396188 268.996 -51.7586271 21.1116822189 144.907 -29.8798955 21.8323674190 186.39 -7.19797059 22.6305736191 227.909 16.36097823.5028331192 269.464 40.867005224.4453893193 145.159 65.661268924.7731761194 186.714 90.855120125.1684236195 228.305 116.51413625.6293621196 269.932 142.70184626.1539603197 145.411 168.75336826.0577146198 187.038 194.7771226.0258045199 228.701 220.83743426.0582277200 270.4 246.99835926.1547179T+e.e )"e t+e $!t1-)* /)*0e. 7"$- .$*/e" T+e 131t1)* /)*0e. 8e"e)*!+) 'et)0.2 0.5&%t - et et%2168.855806 1 -23.444806549.658926195.009766 2 -7.971766363.5490579221.163727 3 7.5372733656.8104898247.317687 4 23.082313532.793175SSE 1202.81165SSE 5E6ORE SOLVER8684.59002$!t1-)* /)*0e&%t9Stt &t S1 )*!+) et et%21 133.063 1300.04281666 3.063 9.3819692 171.162 131.762419 39.39958061552.326953 209.297 135.082191 74.21480875507.837834 247.468 139.894176 107.57382411572.12755 133.315 139.612478 -6.297478139.65823046 171.486 140.977196 30.5088041930.7871277 209.693 143.919377 65.77362284326.169458 247.936 148.373022 99.56297829912.786639 133.567 147.739077 -14.1720774 200.84777710 171.81 148.769714 23.0402861530.85478311 210.089 151.395201 58.6937993444.9620412 248.404 155.548794 92.8552068622.0892913 133.819 154.618397 -20.7993967 432.61490414 172.134 155.368356 16.7656436281.08680615 210.485 157.728267 52.75673292783.2728716 248.872 161.630737 87.24126267611.0378917 134.071 160.450721 -26.3797215 695.88970518 172.458 160.964833 11.4931669132.09288619 210.881 163.102077 47.77892332282.8255120 249.34 166.794497 82.54550336813.7601221 134.323 165.404176 -31.0811756 966.03947622 172.782 165.720069 7.061930649.870863823 211.277 167.670665 43.60633491901.5124424 249.808 171.187512 78.6204884 6181.181225 134.575 169.619886 -35.0448861228.1440426 173.106 169.76915 3.336850211.134569227 211.673 171.563333 40.1096672 1608.785428 250.276 174.933546 75.34245365676.4853129 134.827 173.216318 -38.3893181473.7397430 173.43 173.225467 0.204532860.0418336931 212.069 174.888618 37.18038251382.3808432 250.744 178.136492 72.60750825271.8502533 135.079 176.292914 -41.2139137 1698.5866934 173.754 176.184206 -2.43020592 5.9059008235 212.465 177.737628 34.72737161205.9903436 251.212 180.883556 70.32844434946.0900837 135.331 178.933147 -43.6021473 1901.1472538 174.078 178.725266 -4.64726615 21.597082739 212.861 180.186844 32.67415571067.6004540 251.68 183.247943 68.43205744682.9464841 135.583 181.207089 -45.6240889 2081.5574842 174.402 180.915718 -6.51371767 42.428517843 213.257 182.300463 30.9565366958.30715844 252.148 185.291102 66.85689824469.8448445 135.835 183.173557 -47.3385566 2240.9389446 174.726 182.81186 -8.085860465.381138547 213.653 184.132375 29.520625871.46729848 252.616 187.064615 65.55138484296.9840449 136.087 184.881924 -48.7949239 2380.944650 175.05 184.460954 -9.41095378 88.56605151 214.049 185.727815 28.3211849802.08951252 253.084 188.611782 64.47221794156.6668853 136.339 186.373636 -50.0346361 2503.4648154 175.374 185.902668 -10.5286684 110.85285855 214.445 187.124756 27.3202442746.39574656 253.552 189.968949 63.58305144042.8044357 136.591 187.683483 -51.0924832610.4418258 175.698 187.170305 -11.4723047 131.61377459 214.841 188.355071 26.4859285701.50441160 254.02 191.166624 62.85337553950.5468161 136.843 188.840668 -51.9976682 2703.757562 176.022 188.291816 -12.2698157 150.54837663 215.237 189.445518 25.7914815665.20051864 254.488 192.23042 62.25757963876.0062265 137.095 189.869706 -52.7747058 2785.1695766 176.346 189.290666 -12.9446658 167.56437467 215.633 190.418557 25.2144433635.76815368 254.956 193.181835 61.77416553816.0475269 137.347 190.791173 -53.4441733 2856.2796670 176.67 190.186552 -13.5165518 182.69717371 216.029 191.293039 24.7359608611.86775872 255.424 194.038913 61.38508723768.1289373 137.599 191.622344 -54.0233442 2918.5217274 176.994 190.996007 -14.0020073 196.05620975 216.425 192.084792 24.3402081592.44573176 255.892 194.816804 61.07519653730.1796277 137.851 192.377718 -54.5267182973.1629778 177.318 191.732911 -14.4149111 207.78966379 216.821 192.807099 24.0139006576.66742480 256.36 195.528222 60.83177763700.5051781 138.103 193.069466 -54.9664661 3021.3123982 177.642 192.408913 -14.7669135 218.06173483 217.217 193.471113 23.7458871563.86715384 256.828 196.183843 60.64415673677.7137485 138.355 193.707805 -55.3528053 3063.9330686 177.966 193.033794 -15.0677938 227.03840987 217.613 194.086193 23.5268067553.51063388 257.296 196.792626 60.50337383660.6582489 138.607 194.301312 -55.6943119 3101.8563890 178.29 193.615761 -15.325761234.87895191 218.009 194.660198 23.3488019545.16655192 257.764 197.362092 60.40190783648.3904693 138.859 194.857185 -55.9981851 3135.7967494 178.614 194.161706 -15.5477062 241.73116795 218.405 195.199723 23.2052769538.48487896 258.232 197.898555 60.33344533640.1246297 139.111 195.381468 -56.2704679 3166.3655698 178.938 194.677413 -15.7394135 247.72913799 218.801 195.710305 23.0906951533.180199100 258.7 198.407313 60.29268663635.20806101 139.363 195.879233 -56.5162333194.08459102 179.262 195.167739 -15.9057386 252.992519103 219.197 196.196591 23.0004087529.018799104 259.168 198.892817 60.27518323633.09771105 139.615 196.354739 -56.7397386 3219.39794106 179.586 195.636757 -16.0507572 257.626806107 219.593 196.662484 22.9305165525.808586108 259.636 199.358799 60.27720073633.34093109 139.867 196.811559 -56.944559 3242.6828110 179.91 196.087891 -16.1778907 261.724148111 219.989 197.111256 22.8777436523.391152112 260.104 199.808395 60.29560463635.55993113 140.119 197.252695 -57.1336948 3264.25908114 180.234 196.524011 -16.2900111 265.36446115 220.385 197.545659 22.8393411 521.6355116 260.572 200.244236 60.32776353639.43905117 140.371 197.680664 -57.3096644 3284.39763118 180.558 196.947529 -16.389529268.616662119 220.781 197.967999 22.8130013520.433028120 261.04 200.668531 60.37146883644.71424121 140.623 198.097582 -57.4745823303.32758122 180.882 197.360468 -16.4784683 271.539917123 221.177 198.380213 22.7967873519.693513124 261.508 201.083134 60.42486623651.16446125 140.875 198.505222 -57.6302225 3321.24254126 181.206 197.764528 -16.5585275 274.184834127 221.573 198.783927 22.7890732519.341855128 261.976 201.4896 60.48639953658.60453129 141.127 198.905075 -57.7780754 3338.306130 181.53 198.161133 -16.6311327 276.594575131 221.969 199.180506 22.7884939519.315455132 262.444 201.889238 60.55476233666.87924133 141.379 199.298391 -57.9193913 3354.65589134 181.854 198.551481 -16.6974807 278.805863135 222.365 199.571096 22.7939039519.562054136 262.912 202.283142 60.6288578 3675.8584137 141.631 199.68622 -58.0552199 3370.40856138 182.178 198.936576 -16.7585764 280.849883139 222.761 199.956659 22.8043413520.037983140 263.38 202.672234 60.7077656 3685.4328141 141.883 200.069442 -58.1864423 3385.66207142 182.502 199.317263 -16.8152631 282.753073143 223.157 200.338001 22.8189989520.706713144 263.848 203.057287 60.79071283695.51076145 142.135 200.448798 -58.3137982 3400.49906146 182.826 199.694249 -16.8682488 284.537819147 223.553 200.715801 22.8371991521.537662148 264.316 203.438949 60.87705093706.01532149 142.387 200.824908 -58.4379085 3414.98915150 183.15 200.068128 -16.9181279 286.223052151 223.949 201.090627 22.8583729522.505211152 264.784 203.817765 60.96623533716.88184153 142.639 201.198294 -58.5592943 3429.19094154 183.474 200.439399 -16.9653991 287.824768155 224.345 201.462957 22.8820428523.587884156 265.252 204.194191 61.0578093728.05604157 142.891 201.569393 -58.6783933443.15381158 183.798 200.808481 -17.0104813 289.356475159 224.741 201.833192 22.9078081524.767673160 265.72 204.568612 61.15138833739.49229161 143.143 201.938572 -58.7955721 3456.9193162 184.122 201.175726 -17.0537259 290.829569163 225.137 202.201668 22.9353323526.029467164 266.188 204.941349 61.24665113751.15228165 143.395 202.30614 -58.9111397 3470.52238166 184.446 201.541428 -17.0954281 292.253662167 225.533 202.568667 22.9643329527.360585168 266.656 205.312673 61.3433272 3763.0038169 143.647 202.672355 -59.0253545 3483.99248170 184.77 201.905835 -17.1358355 293.636857171 225.929 202.934427 22.9945728 528.75038172 267.124 205.68281 61.44118963775.01978173 143.899 203.037434 -59.1384339 3497.35436174 185.094 202.269156 -17.1751559 294.985982175 226.325 203.299147 23.0258531530.189912176 267.592 206.051952 61.54004783787.17748177 144.151 203.40156 -59.2505601 3510.62887178 185.418 202.631564 -17.2135641 296.306789179 226.721 203.662993 23.0580067531.671672180 268.06 206.420258 61.63974183799.45777181 144.403 203.764886 -59.3618862 3523.83353182 185.742 202.993206 -17.2512064 297.604122183 227.117 204.026107 23.0908933533.189354184 268.528 206.787862 61.74013763811.84459185 144.655 204.127541 -59.4725407 3536.9831186 186.066 203.354206 -17.2882058 298.88206187 227.513 204.388605 23.1243953534.737657188 268.996 207.154878 61.84112233824.32441189 144.907 204.489631 -59.5826314 3550.08996190 186.39 203.714666 -17.3246656 300.144038191 227.909 204.750586 23.1584138536.312129192 269.464 207.521399 61.94260143836.88587193 145.159 204.851249 -59.6922488 3563.16457194 186.714 204.074672 -17.3606724 301.392946195 228.305 205.112134 23.1928659537.909027196 269.932 207.887504 62.04449563849.51943197 145.411 207.887504 -62.4765044 3903.3136198 187.038 207.887504 -20.8495044 434.701834199 228.701 207.887504 20.8134956433.201599200 270.4 207.887504 62.51249563907.81211131t1)* /)*0e)*!+)0.2LAST 4 SSE8679.029145e7$"e S$*/e"9147.08383SSE R)3:H$*t-W13te";. 0 1ARIMA 2 0.00632481 2ARIMA 1 0.00710077 3ARIMA 3 0.00807443 4H$*t;. L13e)" 1202.81165 5SES 8679.02914 6