Ecology of Water Class 2 - April 2008

8/14/2019 Ecology of Water Class 2 - April 2008

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In, 2000 Water Infrastructure Network released Clean & Safe Water for the 21st Century, which

summarized infrastructure needs and the funding shortfall facing drinking water and wastewatersystems. That report estimates that the total drinking water and waste water infrastructure needsover a twenty-year period approaches one trillion dollars. According to report estimates, drinkingwater utilities across the nation collectively need to spend about $24 billion per year for the next 20years, for a total of $480 billion. SUD recognizes ~$7.6M capital assets, net of depreciation, much ofwhich has a useful life of 20-40 years and has reached its useful life. Direct Cost 9/11 $27.2B (NavalPostgraduate School); ENRON debacle $28B (Brookings Institute); War against terrorism ~$1,000B(Iraq + Afghanistan)

1Monday, January 5, 2009


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Thomas Paine, Common Sense published January 10, 1776 and spread quickly among literate

colonists. Within three months, 120,000 copies are alleged to have been distributed throughout thecolonies, which themselves totaled only two million free inhabitants, making it the best-selling workin 18th-century America, with the exception of the Bible. Its total sales in both America and Europereached 500,000 copies. Aristotle called the free speech of citizens - truthful speech - parresia. Inparresia, one who speaks the truth is also one who is prepared to witness to the truth by living inservice to the truth and in solidarity with others seeking the truth (Northcott, 2007). ThomasAquinas coined the term affected ignorance to describe individuals, and in this case maybe wholesocieties, as those who choose not to know what can and should be known. Maybe one of ourroles today is to act with parresia towards those around us who exhibit affected ignorance. The ideaof Living in Truth rather than living in the lie was developed in the Eastern Bloc countries in the1970s and 80s and ultimately led to the nonviolent overthrow of Soviet power in those countries w/

the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. Combines non-violent, noncooperation of Ghandi/King w/ truthliving teachings of Jesus. Best described by Vaclav Havel in his Power and the Powerless or by aclose reading of the gospels in the NT and the prophets of the OT.



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Percy Bysshe Shelly, Ozymandias (azimandias or ozimaendes) (1812). Throughout human history,

opportunity often goes hand in hand with misfortune. Ozymandias was another name of Ramessesthe Great, Pharaoh of the nineteenth dynasty of ancient Egypt. Shelley shows that all works ofhumankind - including power structures and governments - eventually must pass into history, nomatter how permanent they may seem at the apex of their influence. If we want to move towardsustainability, what activities/ideas/investments of capital must we discard? Joseph Schumpeter(1883-1950, Auastria/Hungary) in his book, Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy discussedcapitalisms greatest strength as creative destruction - old ways of doing things are destroyed andreplaced by new ways through entrepreneurship. However, he predicted that corporatism(resistance to economically productive change and preservation of dis-economic activities) wouldprove more antithetical to capitalism than socialism ever would. For example, today, in the USgovernment provides ~$800B of subsidies annually to the business sector; ~$60B alone to oil and

gas companies. Public water supply in the US is one of the most heavily subsidized, w/ consumersoften paying 1/10 to 1/00 of the actual cost of this service, although the trend is toward full historicalcosting vs. marginal costing, which may be 2-3X current full costing.



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Measuring TowardsSustainability

GDP measures growth (throughputmeasured in $$): instead, measuredevelopment (well-being): use ISEW, EPIor HPI

For projects: use EROI; IndustrialEcology metrics (inputs/outputs)

Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare (ISEW). This has been flat for US since 1970, despite

growth in GDP (Herman Daily, Univ. of Maryland/John Cobb).Environmental Performance Index (EPI) - Daniel Esty, (Yale), US ranks 28 out of 133 countries(New Zealand is #1).Happy Planet Index (EPI) - Nw Economics Foundation (Britain) measures human wellbeing [(lifesatisfaction x life expectancy)/ecological footprint]. US is near bottom 150/178 below EU, Asia, LatinAmerica. Costa Rica is near top 3/178; Zimbabwe is last. HPI is good indication of where tovacation.Energy Return on Investment (EROI). In 1930 EROI (Energy Return on Investment) of oil was100:1, today it is 17.1; new oil is 8:1; clean coal 5:1; nuclear fission 4:1; oil shale 3:1; LNG 2:1;ethanol (from corn) 1.3:1; hydrogen 0.8:1. Wind power ~20:1; solar ~4:1-12:1 increasing.

The ecological footprint measures how much land area is required to sustain a given population atpresent levels of consumption, technological development and resource efficiency, and is expressedin global-average hectares (gha). The largest component elements of Footprint are the land used togrow food, trees and biofuels, areas of ocean used for fishing, and - most importantly - the landrequired to support the plant life needed to absorb and sequester CO2 emissions from fossilfuels.The ecological footprint measures how much land area is required to sustain a givenpopulation at present levels of consumption, technological development and resource efficiency,and is expressed in global-average hectares (gha). The largest component elements of Footprintare the land used to grow food, trees and biofuels, areas of ocean used for fishing, and - mostimportantly - the land required to support the plant life needed to absorb and sequester CO2emissions from fossil fuels.



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Sustainability Research

1970s - sustainable use of bioweapons; sustainability of nuclearpower; water conservation best practices for water utilities; sustainabledisaster response to large-scale environmental disasters; speeding uptechnology adoption curve to produce sustainable urban environments

80s - impacts of Federal mandates on local financial sustainability;technology transfer for sustainable growth in developing countries;sustainable transport operations to reduce pollution

90s - sustainability of federal budgeting process; environmentalintelligence; sustainability of R&D procurement for Big Pharma

Since 2001 - sustainability of U.S. counterterrorism strategy;sustainable funding for nuclear non-proliferation; sustainable watersupply management; climate change and sustainability

Water & Energy Conservation: water utilities single largest category of electric power use globally,

accounting for 2-10% of all power used in any country; U.S. ~3% total power consumed. Powerutilities are single largest user of freshwater in U.S. ~48% annual use vs. irrigation ~34%.



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Cholera Bacterium: Throughout much of human history, cholera epidemics were common in almost

all communities. John Snow, a London MD, in 1850 figured out that cholera was a water-bornedisease, coming from the water supply and Robert Koch (German MD) figured out that cholera wasa bacterium. Present-day water treatment was first used in Hamburg after a cholera outbreak there.In 1908, George Johnson, a contractor, was the first person to use chlorine to disinfect water supplyin Chicago stockyards (for pigs) and later built a treatment plant for Jersey City. Even though HenryVIII passed the first Bill of Sewers Act in 1539, it wasnt until Edwin Chadwick formed a group ofLondoners called the Sanitarians in 1847, that sewers were used to transport wastewater ratherthan just rainwater.



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Applied Ecology: understanding the system of inquiry well enough to plan how to move the system

toward sustainability and determine how much capital needs to be allocated for that purpose.Applied Ecology = Systems Thinking. Ask: what components do we need to identify and understandto be able to say anything useful and make policy that solves problems rather than creates a mess?Ask: what level of explanation is necessary to say something about the system under investigation?Three types of problems: (1) problems that the application of human ingenuity can solve; (2)problems that the application of human ingenuity will only make worse; (3) problems that cannot besolved at present.



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Example of Systems Thinking: In 1967, Daniel K. Lugwig, a billionaire shipping magnate from the

U.S. got a bright idea to dam the Amazon River and create a lake the size of CT to grow rice on 3million acres of land he purchased. He clear-cut 250,000 acres to get ready for the dam project.However, this fellow, Herman Kahn (February 15, 1922 July 7, 1983), a military strategist at theHudson Institute (he invented the military strategy of MAD, that defined the nuclear arms racebetween the U.S. and the Soviet Union resulting in the expenditure of ~$45 trillion ($2008) between~1945-1991 where ~70,000 nuclear bombs were stockpiled to prevent either side from starting awar) and systems expert somehow heard of Ludwigs idea. Kahn did a quick calculation anddiscovered that adding a lake that size at that place on the earth would destabilize the earths axisof rotation. Essentially, what his calculations suggested is that there was a high probability for theearth to be sent spinning off into the void. Kahn wrote up his concerns, sent it to the Pentagon, whoactually listened to him, and that was the end of Ludwig s engineering project.



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Sewanees public water supply: Originally from deep wells and springs up until the 1950s when the

aquifer could no longer meet demand. The university constructed ODonnell reservoir in 1955 andthe Jackson reservoir in 1968. In 1971, the university acquired the Dimmick reservoir that has sinceonly been used once, in 1987, to supply water to Monteagle. Two primary reservoirs hold ~174 MG;Dimmick emergency supply, ~222 MG. Current demand = 300,000 GPD. Underlying these man-made lakes are Pennsylvanian sandstones, shales, and conglomerates rich in iron and manganeseoxides that can influence the turbidity, color and odor of water. These oxides affect biotadownstream, killing the environments that support plant and animal life. For this reason, TDEC isnot presently providing permits for new water supply reservoirs on the Cumberland Plateau.



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How Long can drought last? From the cores, most persistent severe drought in central TN was nine

years between 1564-73; most persistent extreme drought was three years, 1941-43 w/ -3.56 PDSIpart of a seven-year drought lasting between 1940-46. From the paleoclimate record, it appears thatthe current mode of drought variability during recent times is not representative of the full range ofdrought scenarios. The current mode of drought (past 800 years) appears relatively wet and free ofregular and persistent drought conditions that were normal in the past. And, primarily, those of usthat live in the US, are changing the climate in ways that are tending to produce more frequent,higher intensity, and longer drought cycles over a greater proportion of the earths surface.



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Adaptive: systems can self-correct to prevent collapse w/in range of varying inputs beyond which a

tipping point is reached. Tipping Point: inflection in curve at which a phase change occurs; newstrange attractor emerges. The rules are altered. The old system collapses; a new system statearrives. Tipping points are a geography of both crisis and opportunity. Great new industries emergeand human accomplishments soar at tipping points, inflections beyond the status quo of the presenteveryday and past tradition.



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Picture of Mongolia: one of the hardest hit countries on earth from global warming. For example, in

the 1970s, less than 15% of the earth was in drought (very dry conditions defined as -3 or less onthe Palmer Drought Severity Index); today about 30% of the earth is regularly in drought. Manyclimate models forecast drought over increasing amounts of the earth: On a global basis, droughtevents are slightly more frequent and of much larger duration by the second half of the 21st centuryrelative to the present day: probability of moderate drought (D1) goes from 25% to 50% of earthssurface; severe drought (D2) from 8% to 40%; extreme drought (D3) from 3% to 30%. If onebelieves these forecasts, ask: Where is the opportunity? What does humanity need most in thisfuture? rather than Oh, woes is us!



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1) The South Cumberland Plateau is presently in hyper-growth mode, with ~40,000 acres (~63

square miles) either under development or plans for development according to TDEC. (2) From aplanning perspective, the pressure from new development is so great and the infrastructurerequirements so expensive, especially to address water and wastewater needs, that only regionally-based solutions may be economically viable. Q: How can we channel this growth to create newwealth and well-being for the communities affected? not How do we stop this growth fromoccurring? Smart growth vs. destructive, cancerous growth.


Ecology of Water Class 2 - April 2008

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