Easee gas gmom ppt
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And what does consumption growth look like in 2035?: but Coal is King !!!
Transcript of Easee gas gmom ppt
And what does consumption growth look like in 2035?: but Coal is King !!!
Energy use in real terms and future projects (always wrong)
The present perception if it concerns Natural Gas
Global level Market GrowthMethane leakagesFlaring (tight oil/shale gas)Its fossil
European level Deemed MarketIts fossil; its should be ….Has a political dimensionIts expensive (coal is king)
National Level (Dutch an example?)Its fossilPolitical and unreliableRenewable has priorityDutch disease
Energy is politics and for Europe the Natural Gas Sector is hit hard
The way from Policy to NetWorkCode !
Policy/Roaming
PA &Regulation
NCLaw
Madrid ForumCEERAcerCommissionIndividualsComplains
Concrete LobbyConsultationsDrafting optionsFrom EU to National levelNRA influence
Down the drain:LegislationNetWorkCodes
An example, from SoS guidelines, just by limited consultation to a new set of SoS regulation.
Source: ecowin, Bloomberg, ING calculations
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Oil, Brent, 31/12/13=100
Rouble to USD, 31/12/13=100
Some are hit hard and the key is: where is the bottom
Matching point6US/Mmbtu
Self sufficient is one of the key words: USA an example SHALE
Shale gas potential in Europe
The aim of the EU energy policy: dependency should go down!
And natural gas lost competitiveness in (residual) power generation at European level: coal is King !!!!
Sources: Bloomberg, The Intercontinental exchange
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35€/MWh
gas coal switching range TTF monthly index API#2
Coal is presently cheap: EU is using coal for PowerKing is Coal, also in Europe.
In global competition: Europe is expensive overallGlobal industrial players, energy intensive!; move away.
From EU to US
Last couple of years the sector lost 50 Bcm/y within the power sector
Installed capacity Electricity production
20301993 2010 20301993 2010
283 GW
158 GW
101 GW
Braunkohle: 15
Steinkohle: 22
Erdgas: 40
Andere Konventionelle : 4Speicher: 19
Biomasse, andere EE: 20
Wind – offshore: 27
Wind – onshore: 66
PV: 71
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Wind – onshore: 138
PV: 59
Biomasse;
andere EE: 92
Speicher: 31Andere Konventionelle: 13
Erdgas: 7
Steinkohle: 36
Braunkohle: 93
Wind – offshore: 103
Erdgas
527 TWh
Braunkohle
Steinkohle
Kernenergie
572 TWh615 TWh
Steinkohle
Braunkohle
Kernenergie
Erdgas
Szenario für konstanten Nettostromverbrauch zur weitgehenden Erreichung der Klimaschutzziele
Quelle: BCG-Trendstudie 2030+, Szenario "Zielerreichung Klimaschutz"
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German capacity coverage and future energy needs
Average monthly Month-ahead prices
Law of one price: if market is liquid: but no ‘room’ for transmission
Same slope: PSVWarsawMoscow ?
Physical volume on European Hubs
Physical gas deliveries on hubs increased to over 80% of gas demand in physical markets:
the more spot: middle-man in trouble; margins evaporate.
Source: IEAContinent: Austria,
Belgium, France,
Germany, Italy,
Netherlands
The relevant liquid market will be step by step larger: to the East and South: MENAMore network is needed including interconnections and new HUB’s: regulated businessSouth Corridor is the interconnector towards the EAST: Ankara HUB (Iran, Kurdistan, etc)To the MENA region: an EU priority and establishing a MENA Hub: Algiers or Tripoli
When it comes to gas: Expansive infrastructure
EU will not be a real LNG player: short term/balancing
Reason for this: simple, a matter of cost structure.
EER
In conclusion
Be prudent as industry in Europe: no methane leakage and flaring (past!); enough technical solution to be prudent.
Be transparent, CO2 footprint and EITI ruling
Be aware: politics are active in the line of SoS, at least in EUthe general issues could easily be redirected in legal setting and forwarded NC (like SoS was a guideline and than a Directive: sudden!!!!)
Europe is part of the rest: money is global and LNG is getting more than before global, but is EU global competitive?
Scenario’s have been supporting, more than before it are all black swans dealing with the changes of the sector.
Communicate over figures and facts, be careful with framing and be aware of present volatile European polity making.
