Early Detection of Aquatic Invasive Species—finding the needle in the

haystack

Jim Grazio, Ph.D.

PA DEP- Office of the Great Lakes

19 March 2019

Presentation Outline

• Share current AIS monitoring research

• Discuss regional AIS monitoring initiatives

Primary Sources

• Hoffman et al. 2011. Effort and potential efficiencies for aquatic non-native species early detection. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 68, 2064-2079.

• Trebitz et al. 2017. Early detection monitoring for aquatic non-indigenous species: Optimizing surveillance, incorporating advanced technologies, and identifying research needs. Journal of Environmental Management 202, 299-310

Options for Finding the Needle

• Detection is only “early” if organisms are found while still few and localized (i.e., rare).

• Rare organisms are inherently difficult to find

What to Monitor

• What to Monitor

– Target Species Monitoring/ “Active” Surveillance

• Look for a needle

– Broad Spectrum Monitoring/ “Passive” Surveillance

• Look for Anything that’s not hay

Where to Monitor

• Where to Monitor

– Consider

• Ecology

• Known ranges

• Pathways– Needles occur in hay

bales, not alfalfa bales

How to Monitor

• No survey can prove something absent

• Goal should be reasonable certainty that effort was sufficient to detect rare species

• Early Detection can be resource intensive– Risk v. resources

• Sampling Design– Usually random (stratified

cluster) or grid (spatially balanced)

• When Detection becomes easier, control becomes harder

Like searching for a needle using point-intercept design

Species-Effort Curves

• How many times do you need to look before you find all of the different types of needles?– To detect 95% of:

• Zooplankton- 750 samples

• Benthic inverts- 150 samples

• Fish- 100 samples

Source: Hoffman et al. 2011. Effort and potential efficiencies for aquatic non-native species early detection. Can. J. Fish.Aquat. Sci. 68, 2064-2079.

What to Look For• Look for an organism directly

or indirectly?– Entire organism v. eDNA

• Taxonomic approach– Limited effectiveness and efficiency

– “Gold Standard”

• eDNA– Efficient and Effective

– Limitations• Organism alive or dead?

• Quantification?

• DNA persistence?

eDNA

• Two eDNA based approaches:

– DNA target marker approach

• PCR-based

• Species-specific primers

– DNA barcoding

• Determine base-pair sequences

• Compare against reference sequences in database (e.g., GenBank)

• Metabarcoding examines sequences across a broad number of taxa

Zebra mussel gel

Assessing Survey Performance

• Aspects to assess include:

– detection probability attained for a given effort (i.e., sensitivity)

– efficiency with which detection is achieved,

– uncertainty in the survey outcome

• Quantifying and communicating why you didn’t find the needle

Conclusions

• The effort required for high-probability, early detection of aquatic non-native species is substantial

• Proper sampling design can increase efficiencies

– For early detection, targeted area/stratified cluster sampling (SCS) is (relatively) more efficient

• Consider and communicate uncertainty

– Create rarefaction curves

Regional AIS Surveillance Program

Regional AIS Surveillance Project

• GLRI-funded initiative

– MIDEQ sponsor, TNC facilitator, 8 State writing team

• Goals:

– 1) detect and track aquatic invasive species in the U.S. waters of the Great Lakes,

– 2) provide up to date information needed by decision makers for evaluating potential response actions

• Supports the Great Lakes and St Lawrence Governors

and Premiers signed Mutual Aid Agreement

2014 Mutual Aid Agreement

The Plan• Incorporates recent research

• Scope

– Fishes; Benthic Inverts, Plants

– US Waters of Great Lakes Basin, including St. Lawrence Seaway

Plan Content• Content

– Develops a species watch list.

– Identifies 25 priority locations for surveillance.

– Provides guidance on monitoring protocols for surveillance.

– Establishes a process for regional decision making and coordination across state agencies.

– Establishes protocols for sharing information.

– Identifies a collaborative adaptive management process

Species Watch Lists

• Species Watch Lists based on NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL) Great Lakes Aquatic Nonindigenous Species Information System (GLANSIS)

• 138 species across three taxonomic groups (fish, invertebrates, and plant/algae)

• Conventional sampling using multiple gears plus eDNA for high-risk target species (e.g., Asian Carp and ruffe)

Priority Surveillance Sites

• 25 throughout the Great Lakes

• Selected primarily based on propagule pressure and human population

Site Rank Location State Averaged Index Score

1 Chicago/Chicago River Mouth IL 151

2 Toledo/Maumee River Mouth OH 108

3 West Harbor/Marblehead/Lake Erie OH 79

4 Oswego/Oswego River Mouth NY 75

5 Saginaw Bay/Saginaw River Mouth MI 69

6 Portage/Portage-Burns Waterway IN 68

7 Sandusky/Sandusky Bay OH 68

8 Buffalo/Niagara River NY 65

9 Benton Harbor/Saint Joseph River Mouth MI 65

10 Grosse Pointe Shores/Lake St. Clair MI 64

11 Calumet River Mouth/Lake Michigan IN 63

12 Lake St. Clair/Clinton River Mouth MI 57

13 Cleveland/Cuyahoga River Mouth OH 55

14 East Chicago/Indiana Harbor Canal IN 54

15 Evanston/North Shore Channel Mouth IL 53

16 Lakeside/ Lake St. Clair MI 50

17 Rochester/Genesee River Mouth NY 50

18 Detroit River/Rouge River Mouth MI 48

19 Grand Haven/Grand River Mouth MI 45

20 Green Bay/Fox River Mouth WI 44

21 Fairport Harbor/Grand River Mouth OH 39

22 Milwaukee/Kinnickinnic River Mouth WI 38

23 Erie/Presque Isle Bay PA 37

24 Toussaint River Mouth OH 36

25 Lorain/Black River Mouth OH 34

Priority Plant Surveillance Sites

Plant Invasion Risk

Survey Methods• Stratified random (SCS) design

• Uses a variety of sampling gears to sample a variety of habitats (stratification variable)

• Fishes

– Fyke nets, boat electrofishing, bottom trawls

• Invertebrates

– Ponars, sweep nets, Hester-Dendy

• Plants

– Rake Toss, videography, diving

• Adaptive- Assess and modify as appropriate

Regional AIS Surveillance Program

Other Great (Lakes) Stuff

• Post-Delisting Monitoring Year

• Collaborative Science Monitoring year on Lake Erie

• Lake Erie LAMP 5-year report

• PA Sea Grant Mock AIS response workshop 21 March 2019

Contact Information

• Jim Grazio, PhD

Great Lakes Biologist

jagrazio@pa.gov

814-217-9636