E truck task force htuf briefing 10-11-11

E-Truck Task Force:Draft Findings, Recommendations

Clean Transportation Technologies and Solutions SM Bill Van Amburg, Senior Vice President

Whitney Pitkanen, Project Manager

Jean-Baptiste Gallo, Assoc Project Manager

HTUF 2011 Conf BriefingBaltimore, MD

October 11, 2011

Copyright CALSTART 2011 2

Agenda

• Overview E-Truck Task Force – Goals, Initial Timeline, Status

• E-TTF Draft Findings, Recommendations– Including Business Case Planner;

Infrastructure Planning Guide

• Fleet Experience Panel

• Battery Lease Panel

• Next Steps Discussion


CALSTART

CALSTART is a unique national, non-profit, advanced transportation technologies organization.

Founded in 1992 as a public-private partnership to launch and grow a clean transportation industry that will:

• Create high-quality jobs;• Clean the air;• Reduce dependence on foreign oil; and• Reduce global warming emissions


Commercial Vehicle ActivitiesCALSTART works with all vehicle types, including 2-3-wheel, light-duty cars/pickups, off-road – but these are our commercial-focused projects

• National program and conf to speed hybrid and advanced truck commercialization funded by and in partnership with US Army

• $43M incentive program – purchase vouchers – for hybrid and electric trucks funded by CARB, CEC

• Hybrid, Efficient and Advanced Truck Center to focus and drive effective R&D funded by California Energy Commission

• National program to validate, speed fuel cell & low carbon bus technology with DOT/FTA

• National conference on clean fuels and tech for trucks, partnership with NTEA

• Purchase cooperative for natural gas cars and MD/HD trucks

• Fleet action group to speed clean vehicle deployments

• HTAG- Industry-fleet policy advocacy group for hybrid, electric and advanced trucks

• Task Force targeting barriers to e-trucks

Fleet Action for Clean Transportation (FACT)

E-TTF (E-Truck Task Force)HTAG Hybrid, Electric & Advanced Truck

Action Group


Electric Trucks

Navistar/Modec Smith

CapacityFreightliner Custom Chassis


E-Trucks

EVI US Hybrid

Zero Truck

Balqon

Vision Industries


E-Trucks in HTUF

• Key emerging segment – but many questions about best use, business case

• Have created E-Truck Task Force for Users, Manufacturers– Identify barriers, business case, core needs

to grow• Report findings, recommendations, joint

actions at HTUF 2011


Goal of Task Force

• The overall goal of this effort is to speed and support effective E-Truck production and use. In the short term, it will specifically: – Identify key issues/barriers that need targeting; – Develop an action plan for addressing those issues; and

then – Work to implement those recommendations with industry

and public partners.


E-TTF Goals/Targets

• The Task Force targeted the following issues to both understand and quantify the challenges, speed E-Truck uptake via action steps to target and solve barriers. – Identify key market and tech barriers– Identify fleet user needs– Identify and quantify industry development and production needs– Quantify benefits and better validate business case– Identify fueling/charging issues and needs– Highlight best duty cycles, ways to deploy vehicles and cases for

success– Collect and report current validated data on performance– Collect and outline expected price points for future volumes– Recommend action steps to address key barriers identified– Report out these findings; including at a special session at HTUF conf

in Fall


Initial Survey Results

• Roughly 200 responses • Nearly 30% fleet users in survey

responders– 14% vehicle manufacturers– 26% suppliers

• Interest: More than 125 willing to take part in Task Force– 72 registered for first meeting


Initial Survey Results

• Major Areas We Reviewed:– Perception– Performance/Operation– Business Case– Manufacturing Issues– Overall Barriers– Incentives


Task Force Members

Tim Smith, City of Burbank

Jeff Kessen, A123 Systems

John Mikulin , EPA

Nam Thai-Tang, ALTe

Cedric Daniels, Southern Company

Joe Steinberger, BAAQMD

Matt Stewart, City of Chicago

Susan McSherry, NY City DOT

Dean Magistrale, Coca-Cola

Joy Sharma, Amphenol

John Scharffbillig, City of Minneapolis

Glenn Keller, Argonne Natl Lab

Karen Zolna, Prestolite

Niklas Thulin, Volvo

Andrew Meyer, Remy

Stuart Irwin, EDN Group

Brian Pepper, PG&E

Kevin Silbert, MAPC

Tedd Abramson, Zero Truck

George Karbowski, Foothill Transit

Summer Pennino, EVI

Tom Yamaguchi, International Rectifier

Trina Martynowicz, EPA

Mark Kachmarski, Zero Truck

Emelio Garcia, CSS

James Larson, PG&E

Jasna Tomic, CALSTART

Michael Miles, Kers Tech

Anthony Bizjak, Fairfax County

Ron Demick, R.L. Polk

Rudy Tapia, Vision Motor Corp

William Nash, Azure Dynamics

Mira Inbar, Dow Kokam

Duane Woods, Safeway

Sam Waltzer, EPA

David Park, MJ Bradley


Task Force Members

Maria Redmond, State of Wisconsin

Terry Zdan. Province of Manitoba

Mark O'Connell, State of Wisconsin

Doug Ryder, MTC Kenworth

Jesse Shroyer, Smith Electric

Jim Potter, ZF

James Trask, Azure Dynamics

Earl Bloom, Dow Kokam

JJ Livingstone, A123 Systems

Jeffrey Patterson, Belco

Andrew Thomas, FZ Sonick

Rich Serio, Zero Truck

Tom Welsh, Long Island Power

Matt Guilfoyle. Daimler

Dennis Kulzer, City of Ventura

Dale Morin, UPS

John Dabels, EV Power Systems

Jeff Gettys, Zapworld

Michael Mayor, Mayor Logistics

Jamie Hall, CALSTART

Mark Greer, Altec

Joshua Goldman, Proterra

Jordan Smith, SCE

Paul B. Scott, TransPower

Jim Reynolds, A-Z Bus Sales

Dave Navey, Centralina Clean Fuels

Sandor Lau, CSS

Neilesh Mutyala, Seeo

Todd Morganson, ITC Truck

Steve Trindad, Automotive Tech Group

David Mazaika, Quantum Technology

Kelvin Kohatsu, Hawaii Electric Light Co

Jim Castelaz, Motiv

Andy Sleeman, Amphenol

Rick Teebay, LA County

Martin Schuermann, Vision Motor Corp

Anny Pachner, GNA


E-TTF Timeline

• Initial issues Survey: April-May• First meeting – review, priorities: June 9

– Provide initial incentive feedback to ARB, CEC, Air Districts

• Parallel Track Meetings – through summer– Fleet: 2-4 meetings, every 3 weeks or so– Industry: 2-4 meetings, every 3 weeks

• Draft Findings – First Recommendations: August/September

• Work Shop on Recommended Actions – October 11 – Baltimore, MD HTUF Conf


Draft Key Findings to Date

Vehicle Cost/Price are Top Issues/Barriers

- Production/battery costs; need for incentives

- 50% (or greater) funding of incremental cost needed

- Costs do show decline over time

Vehicle Quality/Support Needs to Improve Validation of Performance and Business Case are

Key Gaps Infrastructure is a Surprise to Fleets and Important

Next Tier Issue Better Guidance on Vehicle Placement, Use

Needed


Costs

• Vehicle cost is key component of business case and purchase decision– Other key components of business case are

vehicle utilization, battery replacement, infrastructure cost

– Vehicle cost is projected to decrease over next 5 – 10 years; cost decrease alone may not be fully sufficient to make business case


What Would Cause Increased Purchases? Overall

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Barriers Response Analysis

1. Incremental Cost – 43%

2. Operational Issues – 20%

• Range limitations• Horse power • Loss of payload

3. Difficulty in assessing baseline, payback and total lifecycle cost – 14%

• Battery life and replacement cost• Unproven technology concerns

4. Charging Infrastructure – 13%

• Lack of infrastructure• Cost• Speed of charging

5. Lack of product availability and education on products – 10%

Key Purchase Barriers


For Purchase: Why or Why Not?

Why? • if grant funding or price concessions are available• to improve environmental image• due to WA state law requiring govt entities to switch to EV’s

Why not?• Need to verify range, lifecycle costs, and ROI • Observing early adopters first• Concerned about reliability• Prefer hybrids• Cost is too prohibitive• Not sure what is available• Waiting until economy improves• Not until fuel costs increase


Price Expectations

11-20% lower

21-30% lower


Desired Level of Incentives


Ways to Address

• Improved engineering and production design• Expanded volumes and supply chain

– Volume purchase cooperatives

• Battery leasing (remove battery cost from purchase price, add to operational cost) – fleets would like to see this option– Also reduces risk of purchase to user (low cost

extended warranty period would also reduce risk)

• Reduced battery sizes (customized to use)– But in short term may not help business case enough

• Incentives for early market– Need to cover 50%+ of vehicle incremental cost


Draft Recommendations

• Call on vehicle and battery industry to institute battery leasing model for E-trucks

• Maintain or increase R&D and demonstration of hybrid and electric technology for trucks with focus on reduced system costs

• Seek support incentives – ideally purchase vouchers – for roughly half of E-Truck incremental costs


Quality and Support

• Early vehicles have very low reliability/ availability– While fleets understand this for now – but it MUST

improve quickly

• Initial quality control low• Service and parts support often delayed

– Parts not in local supply; service network not built out

• High failure rates coupled with slow parts and support means fleets stuck with out of service vehicles for longer than anticipated times


What Needs AttentionOverall

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What Needs AttentionDetail



• Call on vehicle and battery industry to link sales expansion to adequate support and parts network

• Call on vehicle manufacturers to increase quality control checks before delivery

• Encourage fleets to require service turn-around minimums before purchase


Performance and Business Case

• Fleets need better validation data of the performance of E-trucks in real-world use– Want data on reliability #1; range #2; battery life/

replacement #3; maintenance #4; energy use; infrastructure costs

• Fleets expect 10 year battery life – battery makers say 6-8 highly likely depending on use profile, thermal management, recharge rates (level 2)

• Fleets want longer range in most cases; but a good percentage would like to see a small battery/shorter range option IF it meaningfully cuts vehicle costs


Performance and Business Case

• Business case main variables are purchase price, fuel displacement– Battery replacement also a key worry to business case

• High utilization (or high fuel offset), known route, return to base fleets ideal

• Infrastructure a higher cost than anticipated for multi-vehicle fleets

• Fleets need better guidance and data on key aspects of real-world business case– Value proposition based on maximum fuel

displacement, reducing purchase and install costs


What Drives the Business Case Overall

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Best Use for Business CaseFleet & OEM Conversations

To get sufficient payback, need to drive maximum miles possible (or maximum use of energy)• Dedicated, return-to-base routes with known daily mileage highly

valuable

High Utilization/Daily miles (5-7 days a week) seems important

70-100 miles/day seems like an initial “sweet spot” for fuel savings payback (sufficient miles to generate fuel savings needed)


(4) What Data on Real-World E-Truck Use do you Most Want to See?:

(1 is most important, 10 is least – mean results below)

– Vehicle range/charge: 3– Vehicle energy use/mile: 4.2– Reliability/Uptime: 1.8– Maintenance costs: 4– Real infrastructure installation costs: 5.8– Battery failure/replacement/life: 3.6– Other failure modes: 6.3– Successful applications/fleet success stories: 7.5– Other: operation in snow and ice with road chemicals

Performance Validation Data


Battery / Component Common Approaches

Battery Life: • Based on the following standard use profiles for e-trucks, how

long do you anticipate battery life to extend? (Assume once a day charging at Level 2). – 70 mile/day fixed route suburban delivery:

• Energy Storage Providers: 3-5 years (33%), 5-8 years (33%), 10 years (33%)• Industry: 5-8 years (25%), 8 years (50%),10 years (25%),

– 80% daily battery discharge work site vehicle (e.g., utility truck):• Energy Storage Providers: 4-6 years (33%), 5-7 years (33%), 10 years (33%)• Industry: 5 years (22%), 7 years (11%), 8-10 years (55%), 12 years (11%)

– 20 mile/day urban driving:• Energy Storage Providers: 7-10 years (33%), 8-10 years (33%), 10 years (33%)• Industry: 4-6 years (37%), 10 years (50%), 15 years (12%)


Battery Cost:• How much do you anticipate it will it cost to replace batteries

in the following years (installed pack per kwh): – 2015:

• Energy Storage Providers: $500/kWh (50%), $600/kWh (50%)• Industry: $270-300/kWh (33%), $450 kWh (16%), $1,500/kWh (50%)

– 2020:• Energy Storage Providers: $450/kWh • Industry: $200 - $230/kWh (33%), $350/kWh (16%), $1,000/kWh (50%)

– 2025: • Energy Storage Providers: $300/kWh• Industry: $100-175/kWh (33%), $300/kWh (16%), $500/kWh (16%),

$750/kWh (33%)

Battery / Component Common Approaches



• Create and circulate draft GENERAL business case guide

• Recommend adopting common “use profiles” as basis of business case assumptions, battery life guarantees

• Create and circulate GENERAL infrastructure planning guide

• Create a clearinghouse for fleet in-use data sharing on E-trucks


Infrastructure

• Level 2 charging most common for fleets• Most fleets plan to charge once per day, over

night (some considering fast charge)• Most single truck deployments will get power at

service shop; however, plans are to take power to where vehicles normally park

• Fleets say are not getting good guidance from vehicle vendors on what infrastructure needs and costs are


Infrastructure

• Average EVSE simple, single install $3300 (usually at a building); fleets say often higher

• Installing conduit to take power to truck locations can cost $8-10,000 or more

• Demand charge is key issue – time of charge can push facility over its core demand load and cost much more money

• No existing EV charge rate for commercial sites (though Time of Use – TOU – rates exist)

• Fleets may need new costly electrical service expansion to accommodate demand from 3-5 more vehicles



• Create and circulate GENERAL infrastructure planning guide

• Work to create a commercial EV charge rate• Eliminate or reduce demand charge for

commercial EV charging (if timed to protect the grid)


E-TTF Infrastructure Decision Guidelines for Fleets


Vehicle Placement, Use

• Value proposition is based on maximum fuel offset

• Must deploy vehicles in use profiles that support this proposition• Dedicated, return-to-base routes with known daily

mileage highly valuable• High Utilization/Daily miles (5-7 days a week) is

important• 70-100 miles/day (or equivalent energy use) seems

like an initial “sweet spot” for fuel savings payback (sufficient miles to generate fuel savings that offset purchase price)


Best Use / Duty CyclesGeneral

1. Fixed route applications - 70%• Stop and go• Localized, dedicated routes• Short haul• Limited range• ‘Spoke and hub’• Urban Delivery, Refuse, Mail trucks, Transit Buses

2. Facility vehicles – 19%• Airports, seaports, railyards, military bases, parks, resorts• Warehouse support and maintenance• Cargo handling

3. High idle, work site applications – 11%• Aerial devices• PTO • Utility vehicles


What Drives the Business Case Overall

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What Drives the Business Case by Respondent

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Slightly Important

Important

Very Important



• Create and circulate GENERAL business case planning guide

• Create joint info/data documents and tools highlighting best use profiles and agree to use across E-truck industry


Overall Recommendations

• COST– Call on vehicle and battery industry to institute battery leasing

model for E-trucks– Maintain/increase R&D and demonstration of hybrid and

electric technology for trucks with focus on reduced system costs

– Seek support incentives – ideally purchase vouchers – for roughly half of E-Truck incremental costs

• QUALITY/SERVICE– Call on vehicle and battery industry to link sales expansion to

adequate support and parts network– Call on vehicle manufacturers to increase quality control

checks before delivery– Encourage fleets to require service turn-around minimums

before purchase


Overall Recommendations

• BUSINESS CASE/PERFORMANCE– Create and circulate draft GENERAL business case guide – Recommend adopting common “use profiles” as basis of business case

assumptions, battery life guarantees – Create a clearinghouse for fleet in-use data sharing on E-trucks

• INFRASTRUCTURE– Create and circulate GENERAL infrastructure planning guide– Work to create a commercial EV charge rate– Eliminate or reduce demand charge for commercial EV charging (if timed to

protect the grid)

• VEHICLE PLACEMENT/USE– Create joint info/data documents and tools highlighting best use profiles and

agree to use across E-truck industry


• Questions?


Fleet Experience

• Mike Britt, UPS– Dir., Maintenance and Engineering, Ground Fleet

• Claude Masters, Florida Power and Light– Manager, Fleet Acquisition and Fuel, Florida Power

and Light

• Judge McKenney, FedEx Express– Vehicle Engineer

• Christopher Trajkovski, Frito-Lay– National Fleet Sustainability Manager


Battery Lease

• Jim Castelaz, Motiv Power Systems– CEO

• Gitajali DasGupta, Electrovaya– Director, Electric Vehicle Division

• Steve Wollenberg, Automatiks– Co-founder and VP of Business Development


• www.calstart.org/Projects/E-Truck-Project.aspx


E-TTF Next?

• Initial issues Survey: April-May• First meeting – review, priorities: June 9

– Provide initial incentive feedback to ARB, CEC, Air Districts

• Parallel Track Meetings – through summer– Fleet: 2-4 meetings, every 3 weeks or so– Industry: 2-4 meetings, every 3 weeks

• Draft Findings – First Recommendations: August/September

• CIRCULATING DOCUMENTS FOR COMMENT BY 9-30-11

• Work Shop on Recommended Actions – October 11 – Baltimore, MD HTUF Conf

• POLICY ACTION – INDUSTRY ACTION


Hybrid, Electric and Advanced Truck Action Group (HTAG)

• Industry-supported, CALSTART-managed advocacy group working to recommend and secure hybrid, electric and advanced truck policies and incentives to speed commercialization

• Briefings for Congress, support for tax credits, truck R&D, vouchers


Next Steps

• Work to push key policy, funding recommendations via HTAG

• Link with utilities and utility industry groups (EEI, others) on Commercial EV charge rate

• On-going E-Truck strategy working group?

Clean Transportation Technologies and Solutions SM

www.calstart.org

For info contact:

Bill Van Amburg(626) [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]


• Backup Slides


Ranking of preferred performance parameters

(1 is most important, 10 is least – mean results below)

– Lifecycle costs less than or equal to diesel: 2.6– Long range (80-120 miles/charge): 2.8– Small battery/short range option (20-50 miles): 9– Freeway capable speed (65 mph) : 4.6 – No operational change to driver: 4.8– No decreased payload capacity: 4.6– Reliability equal to or better than diesel: 1.4– Significant fuel cost savings: 5.2– Maintenance costs 50% better diesel: 4.6– Other (please specify): On-board data recorders, weight of

vehicle, attachment of devices

Performance Validation Data


Benefits of E-Trucks Overall

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Unimportant

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Very Important


Benefits of E-Trucks by Respondent

Critical

Unimportant

Slightly Important

Important

Very Important

E truck task force htuf briefing 10-11-11

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