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E LECTRICITY, DAMS AND TECHNOLOGY CHOICE IN E AST A FRICA : A WINDOW INTO POLITICAL CHANGE...
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Transcript of E LECTRICITY, DAMS AND TECHNOLOGY CHOICE IN E AST A FRICA : A WINDOW INTO POLITICAL CHANGE...
![Page 1: E LECTRICITY, DAMS AND TECHNOLOGY CHOICE IN E AST A FRICA : A WINDOW INTO POLITICAL CHANGE Christopher Gore.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062305/56649c925503460f9494e314/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Electricity, dams and technology choice in East Africa:
A window into political change
Christopher Gore
![Page 2: E LECTRICITY, DAMS AND TECHNOLOGY CHOICE IN E AST A FRICA : A WINDOW INTO POLITICAL CHANGE Christopher Gore.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062305/56649c925503460f9494e314/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
The Evolving African Energy Landscape
• Large, mega interventions versus small distributed, renewable generation
• Needs = experimentation and precedents
• Knowledge and research gaps : implementation, effects, and impact
![Page 3: E LECTRICITY, DAMS AND TECHNOLOGY CHOICE IN E AST A FRICA : A WINDOW INTO POLITICAL CHANGE Christopher Gore.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062305/56649c925503460f9494e314/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Energy governance in Africa
![Page 4: E LECTRICITY, DAMS AND TECHNOLOGY CHOICE IN E AST A FRICA : A WINDOW INTO POLITICAL CHANGE Christopher Gore.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062305/56649c925503460f9494e314/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Uganda: Reform and technology choice
• Reform ‘showcase’
• 2002: 4% national connection, 1% rural
• 2006: ‘We are in a crisis’
• 2014: 14% national, 7% rural
• Research puzzle:
• Why does energy sector conflict with this apparent legacy?
• What shaped the choices and implementation challenges?
![Page 5: E LECTRICITY, DAMS AND TECHNOLOGY CHOICE IN E AST A FRICA : A WINDOW INTO POLITICAL CHANGE Christopher Gore.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062305/56649c925503460f9494e314/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Response: Re-regulate; Unbundle; Bujagali Dam; Private sector
Bujagali Falls
“Bujagali is instrumental to privatization…without [it] the whole restructuring of the sector will collapse” – Nordic Bilateral rep
“It’s a no brainer…show me the counterfactual”- WB country manager
‘When you find out why they did what they did please tell me’ – Kenya
![Page 6: E LECTRICITY, DAMS AND TECHNOLOGY CHOICE IN E AST A FRICA : A WINDOW INTO POLITICAL CHANGE Christopher Gore.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062305/56649c925503460f9494e314/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Implementation
• Technical risks
• Private capital
• Reform sequencing
• Political and process risks
• Process: internally and externally defined
• ‘Process a circus…World Bank has to stop listening to nonsense…to those against development…Listen to people in 3rd World.’
• ‘Open war on them’
• Other generation alternatives delayed
• GTZ/GIZ; geothermal; microhydro
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![Page 7: E LECTRICITY, DAMS AND TECHNOLOGY CHOICE IN E AST A FRICA : A WINDOW INTO POLITICAL CHANGE Christopher Gore.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062305/56649c925503460f9494e314/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Short-term legacy
• Government• “We followed the gospel and have moved
on…we are now the example of what not to do.”
• Learned by doing; new ‘development partners’
• Accept reform but not embrace: ERA
• World Bank• Pricing; independent producers• Hindsight – too ambitious; slower
• Civil society and opposition• Not anti-dam; sophisticated requests; use
processes in place; parliament/courts
• Bilaterals and multilaterals: New ‘natural’ division of responsibilities?
• Private sector: very sensitive to domestic conditions – political and financial
![Page 8: E LECTRICITY, DAMS AND TECHNOLOGY CHOICE IN E AST A FRICA : A WINDOW INTO POLITICAL CHANGE Christopher Gore.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062305/56649c925503460f9494e314/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Moving forward: Politics of transition
• Electricity in Uganda =
• Conflict?• Low-carbon narratives• Technology choice
• Multiple transitions
• Process• “Indirect effects of a
problematic process can inflict penalties that are anything but nebulous” – Hirschman, 1967
• Process (cont’d)
• “Proof of the pudding is in the eating, not the cooking” – Privatization Secretariat, Uganda
• China and large dams: how long?
• South Africa
• Politics and governance
• The state and institutions matter
• Policy choice, implementation, success
• Rigorous comparison