Dynamic global vegetation modelling: towards a third ...
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Dynamic global vegetation modelling: towards a third generation MAY 11-13 2015 LUSTT-BECC-MERGE INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP HOTEL ÖRESUND, SELMA LAGERLÖFS VÄG 4, LANDSKRONA, SWEDEN, MAY 11-13 2015 REGISTRATION For BECC/MERGE participants the open registration is for May 12th. The number of participants from the BECC/MERGE communities is limited to 10 and will be confirmed by e-mail. Last day of registration is April 14th. But sign up now, it’s first come, first serve! Link to registration webform Background Recent studies have highlighted the critical dependency of the future course of biosphere production and carbon sequestration on stand and landscape-level processes governing the evolution of ecosystem composition and structure. Driving processes including stand demographics, competitition, disturbance and dispersal, as well as human land use decisions, are considered only fragmentally by current carbon cycle and land surface models, developed in an era when limited computational power and environmental data for evaluation constrained the scope and emphasis of the models. This casts doubt on the validity of the models when used to project impacts of future climate, atmospheric and land use changes, and when coupled to Earth system models to account for carbon cycle and land surface feedbacks. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) are designed with a view to representing structural and compositional dynamics of ecosystems in order to account for feedbacks to biogeochemistry and transient responses to rapid climate change. DGVMs that explicitly represent the size structure and demography of vegetation stands and that account for the heterogeneity of vegetated patches in the landscape of a grid cell have come to be known as second-generation DGVMs. Recently, innovations have been proposed to replace or extend the DGVM paradigm, targeting visions such as increased computational efficiency, better use of knowledge on species strategies and traits, reduced complexity and greater compatibility when coupling to other types of models such as Earth system and integrated assessment models. These developments may represent the embryo of an emerging, third, generation of large-scale ecosystem models. This workshop will bring together leading international expertise to discuss recent advances and current key topics in vegetation and land cover dynamics modelling, and to contribute to formulating a joint research agenda for transition to a third generation of DGVMs, addressing key cur- rent issues in ecosystem and climate science. Outcomes from the workshop are expected to form the basis of a jointly authored position paper in a suitable journal. SUPPORT ACKNOWLEDGED FROM Photo: Landskrona, Flickr, Timmy_L
Transcript of Dynamic global vegetation modelling: towards a third ...
Dynamic global vegetation modelling: towards a third generation
MAY 11-13 2015
LUSTT-BECC-MERGE INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOPHOTEL ÖRESUND, SELMA LAGERLÖFS VÄG 4, LANDSKRONA, SWEDEN, MAY 11-13 2015
REGISTRATIONFor BECC/MERGE participants the open registration is for May 12th. The number of participants from the BECC/MERGE communities is limited to 10 and will be confirmed by e-mail. Last day of registration is April 14th. But sign up now, it’s first come, first serve! Link to registration webform
BackgroundRecent studies have highlighted the critical dependency of the future course of biosphere production and carbon sequestration on stand and
landscape-level processes governing the evolution of ecosystem composition and structure. Driving processes including stand demographics,
competitition, disturbance and dispersal, as well as human land use decisions, are considered only fragmentally by current carbon cycle and
land surface models, developed in an era when limited computational power and environmental data for evaluation constrained the scope and
emphasis of the models. This casts doubt on the validity of the models when used to project impacts of future climate, atmospheric and land use
changes, and when coupled to Earth system models to account for carbon cycle and land surface feedbacks.
Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) are designed with a view to representing structural and compositional dynamics of ecosystems in order
to account for feedbacks to biogeochemistry and transient responses to rapid climate change. DGVMs that explicitly represent the size structure
and demography of vegetation stands and that account for the heterogeneity of vegetated patches in the landscape of a grid cell have come to
be known as second-generation DGVMs. Recently, innovations have been proposed to replace or extend the DGVM paradigm, targeting visions
such as increased computational efficiency, better use of knowledge on species strategies and traits, reduced complexity and greater compatibility
when coupling to other types of models such as Earth system and integrated assessment models. These developments may represent the embryo
of an emerging, third, generation of large-scale ecosystem models.
This workshop will bring together leading international expertise to discuss recent advances and current key topics in vegetation and land cover
dynamics modelling, and to contribute to formulating a joint research agenda for transition to a third generation of DGVMs, addressing key cur-
rent issues in ecosystem and climate science. Outcomes from the workshop are expected to form the basis of a jointly authored position paper
in a suitable journal.
SUPPORT ACKNOWLEDGED FROM
Photo: Landskrona, Flickr, Timmy_L
Preliminary programme
MONDAY 11 MAY (INVITED PARTICIPANTS)
13.00 - 15.00 RECENT AND FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS IN LPJ-GUESS Historical overview and introduction to Release 4.0. Ben Smith, Lund University
Wetlands, methane and permafrost. Paul Miller, Lund University.
Nitrogen cycle. David Wårlind, CSIRO
N-based trace gases. Peter Eliasson, Lund University
Wildfire disturbance and impacts. Lars Nieradzik, CSIRO.
Land use change, crops and managed forests. Mats Lindeskog, Lund University
15.00 - 16.00 LAND-USE AND DGVMs
Progress in the representation of various agricultural management and innovative farming practices within LPJmL - particular focus on multiple cropping. Alberte Bondeau, IMBE
Integrating land use change models with DGVMs. Mark Rounsevell, University of Edinburgh
16.00 - 17.30 BREAKOUT DISCUSSIONS, LPJ-GUESS DEVELOPMENT AND PRIORITIES: - Vegetation dynamics and disturbance
- Soil processes and nutrient cycles
- Growth, phenology and allocation
- Land use and management
TUESDAY 12 MAY (OPEN PARTICIPATION)
8.30 - 16.00 CURRENT ISSUES AND RECENT ADVANCES IN DYNAMIC VEGETATION AND EARTH SYSTEM MODELLING Challenges to improving the representation of vegetation description in climate models. Stephen Sitch, University of Exeter.
Relative importance of vegetation dynamics for future C-uptake uncertainties. Anders Ahlström, Lund University.
How global forest age structure influences carbon cycle processes. Benjamin Poulter, University of Montana.
Can the terrestrial carbon sink keep pace with future increases in CO2 concentrations? Guy Schurgers, University of Copenhagen.
Disturbance effects on C cycle simulations. Thomas Pugh, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology.
A stand-alone tree demography, phenology and landscape structure module for Earth system models: integration with Australian savannah and global forest data. Vanessa Haverd, CSIRO.
Recent developments within the ORCHIDEE land surface model. Philippe Peylin, LSCE.
A vertically discretized canopy representation for ORCHIDEE to better represent carbon, water and energy fluxes of (managed) forests. Sebastiaan Luyssaert, LSCE.
Modelling paleo-vegetation for the late Quaternary: Progress and priorities. Jed Kaplan, University of Lausanne.
Taking off the training wheels: the properties of vegetation dynamics models without climate envelopes. Rosie Fisher, NCAR.
Capturing vegetation succession in the GFDL ESM framework. Elena Shevliakova, GFDL.
Leaf and stem economics spectra drive diversity of functional plant traits in a DGVM. Kirsten Thonicke, PIK.
How to make the next generation of models simple as well as better: time for a fundamental shift in model development strategy. Colin Prentice, Imperial College London.
16.00-17.30 BREAKOUT DISCUSSIONS – PRIORITY ISSUES FOR TRANSITION TO A NEW GENERATION OF DGVMS. - Woody vegetation demography and succession
- Soil processes and nutrient cycles
- Integrating new data sources
- Trait-based approaches
WORKSHOP DINNER ON THE ISLAND OF VEN (INVITED PARTICIPANTS)
WEDNESDAY 13 MAY (INVITED PARTICIPANTS)
8.30-10.00 INTEGRATING MODEL DEVELOPMENT WITH EXPERIMENTATION (How) can we use ecosystem experiments to improve vegetation models? Sönke Zaehle, Max-Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry
Towards a mechanistic representation of SOM dynamics for DGVMs. Wolfgang Knorr, Lund University
Data assimilation into DGVMs. Marko Scholze, Lund University
Plenary discussion – Workshop outcomes and position paper.
13.00 CLOSE
