Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation

Presentation by Gabrielle Kissinger and Martin Herold

COP 18 side-event, 26 November 2012, Doha, Qatar

DriversofDeforestationandForestDegradation:ASynthesisReportforPolicymakers,26November.2012

Authors:Gabrielle Kissinger, Lexeme ConsultingMartin Herold, Wageningen University

Veronique De Sy, Wageningen University

Madepossiblebyfinancialassistancefrom:UnitedKingdomDepartmentsforEnergyandClimateChange(DECC)

andInternationalDevelopment(DFID)andTheGovernmentofNorway’sInternationalClimateandForest

Initiative

AppendixIIoftheDecember2010CancúnDecision1/CP.16requeststheSBSTAto:

(a)Identifylanduse,land‐usechangeandforestryactivitiesindevelopingcountries,inparticularthosethatarelinkedtothedriversofdeforestationandforestdegradation,identifytheassociatedmethodologicalissuestoestimateemissionsandremovalsresultingfromtheseactivities,andassessthepotentialcontributionoftheseactivitiestothemitigationofclimatechange,andreportonthefindingsandoutcomesofthisworktotheConferenceoftheParties(COP)atitseighteenthsessionontheoutcomesoftheworkreferredtointhisparagraph;


1. Assessmentofcurrentandfuturedrivers

2. Theroleofdriversinnationalforestmonitoringandindevelopingforestreference(emission)levels

3. DriversinREDD+policydevelopmentandimplementation

4. Interventionsatrelevantscalesandkeyactors

5. Conclusionsandrecommendations

Overviewofpresentation:


Definitions:


• Proximate/directcauses:humanactivitiesorimmediateactionsthatdirectlyimpactforestcoverandlossofcarbon Deforestation:commercialagriculture,subsistenceagriculture,

mining,infrastructureandurbanexpansion

Forestdegradation:logging,fires,livestockgrazinginforest,fuelwoodcollectionandcharcoalproduction

• Underlying/indirectcauses:complexinteractionsoffundamentalsocial,economic,political,culturalandtechnologicalprocesses‐oftendistantfromtheirareaofimpact Importanttoaddressthemseparatelyandexaminethemat

variousscalesforspecificanalysisandinterventionstrategies

Assessmentofcurrentdrivers

Assessmentofcurrentdrivers:


Country REDD+ readiness activities – first inventoryof what countries identify as relevant and importantdrivers

Methods: R-PIN, R-PP, a study on proximate driversof deforestation of 25 tropical countries (Mathews etal., 2010), CIFOR country profiles and the UNFCCCnational communications

nominal, ordinal or ratio-scale data for 46non-Annex I countries (78% of total forestarea in 2010)

Hosonuma et al. 2012, ERL:http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/7/4/044009

Direct/proximatedrivers:Deforestation


Direct/proximatedrivers:Deforestation


• Agricultureestimatedtodrive80%ofdeforestationworldwide

• Commercialagriculture:biggestdriverinLatinAmerica(2/3oftotaldeforestedarea)

• CommercialagricultureinAfricaand(sub)tropicalAsia(1/3oftotaldeforestedarea)andofsimilarimportancetosubsistenceagriculture

Direct/proximatedrivers:Degradation


• LatinAmericaand(sub)tropicalAsia:Commercialtimberextractionandlogging>70%oftotaldegradation

• Africa:Fuelwoodcollection,charcoalproduction

Indirectorunderlyingdrivers

• Economicgrowth– Basedonexportofprimarycommodities

• Populationgrowth/Urbangrowth• Demandfortimberandagriculturalproducts

• Countries(31nationalREDD+R‐PPs):– Weakforestsectorgovernanceandinstitutions,conflictingpoliciesbeyondforestsectorandillegalactivity(93%)

– Populationgrowth(51%)– Povertyandinsecuretenure(both48%)

FutureFuture

Theroleofdriversinnationalforestmonitoringandindevelopingforestreference(emission)levels

Identifyingforestchangedrivers:importantdatastreamforREDD+designandimplementation:

•DefineREDD+interventions(priorities)•Engagementwithnon‐forestsectors

•Trackthemtoassesstheimpactofmitigation

•DefineprioritiesformonitoringandMRV

•NationalcircumstancesforadjustingR(E)Ls

•RequiresresourcesandeffortsadditionaltoestimationandreportingofGHGemissions


Nationalcapacitiesformonitoringdrivers:


Analysingandassessingproximatedrivers


• Linkingforestareachangestospecificactivitiesandfollow‐uplanduse(remotesensinganalysis)

• Spatialcontextandlocation,andotherfeatures(e.g.roads,settlements)canhelpininterpretation

• Localandregionalknowledge(expertsandcommunities),groundobservations

• GHGemissionsfromdrivers:commonlynotavailableonnationallevel

• SomeactivitiesorlandusesalsoresultinadditionalGHGemissions;i.e.,agriculture

Linkingareachangemonitoringwithproximatedrivers:


Forestcarbonstockimpactofdifferentactivities

Time

Carbon

stock

Prim

aryforest

Deforestation

Continuo

usloggin

g

Shiftin

gcultivation

Humaninduceddisturbancecausinglossofforest:fire,clearing,selectiveextraction,…

Naturalre

growth

• LinkbetweendeforestationpatternsandunderlyingcausesimportantfordevelopingRL/RELs–butoftendifficult

• Statisticalanalysisandmodellingusingeconomicanddemographicindicators,analysisofpolicyandgovernanceissues(global,national)

• Requirednationalandlocaldataoftennoteasilyavailable:scatteredamongdifferentsources,sectorsandministries

Analysingandassessingunderlyingdrivers


• RELfirstkey“number”tobeprovidedbyREDD+countries

• Historicaldataandunderstandingforestchangepatterns

andunderlyingcausesareimportant

– totakenationalcircumstancesintoaccount,

– toconstructscenariosthatdeviatefromhistoricaltrends.

• Theavailabilityofdataondriversisuncertaininmany

REDD+countries

– Stepwiseapproachasstartingpointtomatchavailable

dataandtheirqualitywiththechoiceofreferencelevelmethods,itsuncertaintiesandcountrycircumstances

Roleofdriversfordevelopingforestreference(emission)levels:



Source:CIFORpolicybrief,2012

Overviewofapotentialstep‐wiseframeworkforsettingRELs

• Availability&qualityofdatashoulddeterminethemethodstodevelopreferencelevels

• Nationalcapacitiesandthequalityofreferencelevelscanbeimprovedovertime

StepwiseREDD+nationalmonitoring

• CIFOR/GOFC‐GOLDsideeventonstepwiseProgressinNationalForestMonitoring,MRV,ReferenceLevelsandAssessingDrivers,

– Wednesday,28November,15.00‐16.30hrs,QatarNationalConventionCenter(QNCC),SideEventRoom4

• UpdatedversionoftheGOFC‐GOLDSourcebook:

– http://www.gofcgold.wur.nl/redd/index.php

• CIFOR/GOFC‐GOLDreportoncapacitydevelopmentinnationalforestmonitoring

– http://www.cifor.org/online‐library/browse/view‐publication/publication/3944.html

Considerationsforfuturedrivers

• Economicgrowthbasedontheexportofprimarycommodities+increasingdemandfortimberandagriculturalproductsinaglobalizingeconomyarecritical.

• 93%ofcountries:identifyweakforestsectorgovernanceandinstitutions,includingconflictingpoliciesbeyondtheforestsector(lackofcross‐sectoralcoordination),andillegalactivity(weakenforcement).SeeAppendixA.

• Populationgrowthnextmostcommonreportedunderlyingdriver(51%),followedbypoverty(48%)andinsecuretenure(48%).

• 41%ofcountriesmentioninternationalandmarketforces(commoditymarkets,prices,andforeigndirectinvestment).

• Somecountriesthatreferenceagriculturalexportcommoditiesasdirectdriversdon’tmakelinkagetointernationalandmarketforcesasunderlyingdrivers.

Indirect/Underlyingdrivers:


• Globalincrease,predominantlyinurbanareas,to8.2billionin2030

• LargestincreasesinpopulationinAfrica(+235million)andAsia&Pacific(+255million)

• Stabilizedpopulationlevelof8to10billionafter2050duetorisinglivingstandards,urbanization,anddecliningbirthrates

FutureTrends:Globalpopulation:


• Brazil,theRussianFederation,IndiaandChinaareanticipatedtocontinuegrowingoverthenexttenyearsat8%perannum(OECD/FAO,2012)

• Developingworldwillaccountformorethanhalfofglobaleconomicgrowththroughout2012/14(WorldBank,2012)

• Mining:Developingcountriesandemergingmarketswillseegreatestsupplyanddemandexpansion(PriceWaterhouseCoopers,2012).

FutureTrends:Economicgrowth:


• Overall,70%increaseindemandforfoodproductsby2050(FAO,2009)

• Oilseeds:23%productionincrease2011–2020,2/3ofwhichtooccurinnon‐Annex1countries(OECD/FAO,2011)

• Oilpalm:45%riseinpalmoiloutput,mainlybyIndonesiaandMalaysia(OECD/FAO2011)

• Meat:85%increaseinvolumeofmeatproducedby2050(FAO,2009),78%oftheadditionaloutputtooccurindevelopingcountries(LatinAmerica‐Brazil),growthindemand:largeeconomiesinAsia,LatinAmericaandoilexportingcountries(OECD/FAO2011)

• Biofuels:By2020,21%oftheincreaseinglobalcoarsegrainsproductionabovecurrentlevels,29%oftheglobalvegetableoilproduction’sincrease,and68%ofglobalsugarcaneproduction’sincreasewillgotobiofuels(OECD/FAO,2011).EU,US,Brazil,China,Indiaandothershavebiofueltargets.

FutureTrends:Agriculturalcommodities:


• Annualplantationproductioncapacity:1.8billionm3peryearby2020

• >80%productionpotentiallocatedintropicsandsouthernhemisphere

• Brazil,ChinaandRussiatodominate,IndiaandVietnamincreasemarketshareoftheinternationaltradeofwoodproductsby2020(FAOAdvisoryCommitteeonPaperandWoodProducts,2007).Note:domesticconsumption,domesticfuelwooduseandillegalloggingnotrepresentedintradestatistics.

• EUandUSImportcontrolsstemmingillegallogging,howeverint’landdomestictradewillingtosourceillegalwoodwillincrease.

FutureTrends:Woodproducts(pulp,paper,sawlogs):


• Peoplereliantontraditionalbiomassusegloballytodecreaseby175millionbetween2008and2030

• Demandforcharcoallikelytoincreaseduetoincreasedurbanization

• 34%increaseinfuelwoodconsumptionfrom2000‐2020inSub‐SaharanAfrica(FAO,2009)

FutureTrends:FuelWood/Charcoal:


Drivers:REDD+policydevelopmentandimplementation:


• Incentives,disincentivesandenablingmeasures• Policy‐orincentive‐basedinterventions• Needtofocusinterventionsondirectandunderlyingdriverssimultaneouslyforsuccess.

• Needamixofincentiveinvestments,disincentivesandenablingmeasures,underacomprehensiveREDD+strategy,aimedatthemostimportantproximateandunderlyingdriversforgreatestsuccess.Measurespursuedsingly,e.g.agriculturalintensification,willbelesseffectiveorcounter‐productive.

National‐levelinterventions:


SummaryofnationalREDD+readinessplaninterventionsandstrategiestoaddressdrivers


• 48%listinsecuretenureasakeyunderlyingfactorofunsustainableforestuse(refertoAppendixA).

• R‐PP’s:tenuredirectlyrelatestolegalandillegalforestclearingactivity,andgovernmentrolesinmanagementandenforcementofpolicies.

• Landtenuresecurity=lessdeforestation,andsecuretenuremoreimportantthantheformoftenurefordesigningpoliciestoinfluenceforestoutcomes(Robinsonetal.,2011)

Landtenuresecurity:


Countriesneed:•Integrationofinformationbeyondtheforestsector:trackdriveractivity,socialandenvironmentalsafeguards,andevaluationoftrade‐offsandlivelihoodimplications•Simultaneousclimatechangemitigationandadaptationimpactsandmeasures(foodsecurity)•Establisheduniformcriteriaonland‐useclassifications+capacitiesofsectoralandregionalinformationsystems•AcknowledgeIPCCLULUCFguidance;somecountrieswantfurtherUNFCCCguidanceonreportingframeworksforREDD+MRVsystemdesignandinventoryreportingformatstosupportassessingdriversoflandusechange

Adequateinformationsystems:


• Distinguishbetweenlegalandillegalactivityandstatusoflanduserights.

• Howtocompete?:NPVofoilpalmplantations:US$6000–US$9000/ha,butcarboncreditsincentivesyieldUS$614–US$994perhectare(Pachecoetal.,2012;Fisheretal.,2011).

Solutions:• Strengthenlawsandregulations,fiscalmechanisms(e.g.taxesand

subsidies),andpublicinvestments(e.g.tenurereform,benefit‐sharing,rehabilitatingdegradedland)ratherthanopportunitycoststoaffectratesanddriversofdeforestation(Gregersenetal.,2010).

• Shouldbenationalinscale:avoidsleakagebetweenregionalorprojectscalesandoverpayingforhighopportunitycostemissionreductions.

REDD+compensation,opportunitycostsandgoodgovernance:


• Land‐sparinghypothesisisflawed• Brazil,GhanaandIndonesia:threekeyleversacrossregionsandcommodities:– provisionofup‐frontpublicfinance,followedbylow‐interestloans,

– establishmentandenforcementofthecorrectenablingpolicyandregulatoryframeworks,

– theneedforsignificantpublicinvestmentinincreasingthecapacityofagriculturalproducers,particularlysmallholders(Prince’sCharities’InternationalSustainabilityUnit,2012)

Intensifyingagriculturalproductionwithoutcausingdeforestation:


Brazil:•Cereal,pulseandoilseedproduction185%(1990–2012),butdeforestationalmost75%since2004.•Agriculturalintensification+policiespromotinguseofdegradedlands—dependentontherebeingenoughdegradedland(Macedoetal.,2012)•Combinationofmarketpressure,forestcodeenforcement,technicalguidanceandland‐useplanning,financingandincentives,increasingareasundermultipleuses(crop‐livestock‐forestintegration,silvopastoralandagroforestrysystems).Indonesia:•Palmoilcultivationfrom9.7millionhato18millionhaby2020withoutdeforestationpossibleviaaproperlyplannedandspatiallyexplicitdevelopmentstrategy(KohandGhazoul,2010).

Intensifyingagriculturalproduction≠ deforestation(cont.):


AcreState’sREDD+programme:•Encompassesallland‐usetypes,includingthefullrangeofagriculturalusesthataffectAcre’sforests,•Mixofincentivesandpayments,bundledunderanumbrellaREDD+programmelinkeddirectlytoAcreSustainableDevelopmentPlan,bringingsmall‐,medium‐andlarge‐scaleproducers,•Emissionreductiontargetsarenestedwithinfederaltargets,basedonmulti‐sectorland‐useplansandcommitments,•Governanceoftheprogramme,includingenforcementabilities,appearsstrong.

Cross‐sectoralcommitments:AcreState,Brazil


• Leakage/displacement—Trackingacrossbordersandacrossregionscomplex!Couldcombineinformationfromnationalsystemsandinternationalsources,enablingcountriestodesignsynergisticREDD+strategies.AlsoincreaseREDD+participation.

• Indirectland‐usechange(ILUC)—EURenewableEnergyDirectiveandUSRenewableFuelStandard:methodstoassessILUC;nationalinformationsystemsshouldinclude

• ForeignDirectInvestment—Informationsharingbetweencountriesonrisksandbenefitsneeded+identifycompatiblestrategies(legal,standards‐based,financial)withinvestorsandstakeholders.

Challenges:


Interventionsatrelevantscalesandkeyactors

Supply‐anddemand‐sidetools:•Voluntarymeasures(e.gEUFLEGTVoluntaryPartnershipAgreements,procurementandsourcingcommitments)orregulatory(e.g.importcontrols)•Exploringsynergies—howaddressingonedriveraffectsotherunderlyingdrivers—ofimportanceindesigninginterventions.– Example:internationaleffortstocontrolillegallogginghasspin‐offeffectsingenerallyimprovingforestsectorgovernance,akeyunderlyingdriver(LawsonandMcFaul,2010).

Interventionsatrelevantscales:International


• Largepurchasers:ConsumerGoodsForumzeronetdeforestationby2020,initialfocusonbeef,soy,palmoilandpaper/pulp.

• Governmentfacilitatedcommitments:TheNetherlands—allimportedpalmoilsustainableby2015.TheUKmappingsupplychainsofpalmoil.EUmembercountries’timberandsustainablewoodprocurementpolicies.

• Importcontrols,laws,bilateralagreementsandtradeaccords:e.g.EUVoluntaryPartnershipAgreementsonFLEGTandtheUSLaceyAct.

• Commodityroundtables,sustainabilitystandardsandcertification:RSPO,RTRS,Bonsucro,BetterCottonInitiative,RSB,FSC(chain‐of‐custody,nationalcontrolledwoodorgroupcertification).

• Public‐privatesectorpartnerships:e.g.USannouncementatRio+20topromotesustainablesupplychainswithConsumerGoodsForum.

• Impactandcarbondisclosure:e.g.GlobalCanopyProgramme’sForestFootprintDisclosureProject,nowpartofCarbonDisclosureProject.

Interventionsatrelevantscales:International


Interventionsatrelevantscalesandkeyactors:


ConclusionsandRecommendations

• Mostcountrieslackdatatoquantitativelyidentifydrivers,andthusneed:– Supportthroughresourcesandassistanceinreadinessactivities.

– Integrationofinformationbeyondtheforestsector– Methodologicalguidanceontrackingdrivers:improveddataqualityondrivers,landuseandlandusechange,est.emissions,IPCCmethods

– Assessmentofhistorical,recentandprojectedfuturedrivers:criticalfordesignofREDD+strategies,andcanhelpquantifyandjustifyadjustmentstoforestreference(emission)levels(step‐wiseapproach)

Conclusionsandrecommendations:Nationallevels


• Lookbeyondtheforestsectortodesignandframeinterventionstoaddressdrivers—assesssectorpolicies(inagriculture,mining,infrastructure,energy,andforestry)thatconflictwithREDD+objectives,anddevelopcomprehensiveplanstomeetsustainabledevelopmentobjectives,enabledwithcross‐sectoralcommitmentsandpolitical/institutionalsupport.– Lowcarbondevelopmentplans/nationalclimatechangeactionplans– REDD+incentivesalonenotenough—needeffectivelanduseplanning,policiesand

incentives– Incentives,disincentivesandenablingmeasuresneedtoreachkeyactorsandatright

scale– Demand‐andsupply‐sideinitiatives(e.g.commodityroundtables)notprominent

enoughinreadinessplans.AlignwithREDD+.– Livelihoodsoflocalcommunitiesmaydependoncurrentdriversofdeforestationand

forestdegradation:interventionstrategiesmustconsiderimpacts(exposteandexanteandadheretosafeguards.

• Foundationalactivitiesforsuccessinaddressingdrivers:improvegovernance,transparency,capacityandenforcement,combatillegalactivitiesandprovidesecuretenure

Conclusionsandrecommendations:Nationallevels


• Countriesfocusedonnationalandlocalleveldrivers,butfaceinternationaldriversthatareexpectedtoincreaseinpressure.

• Engagefinanceasatooltochangedriveractivity:e.g.codesofconductorsustainabilityguidelinesforprovidinginternationalfinance,suchasEquatorPrinciples,InternationalFinanceCorporationPerformanceStandards,etc.

• Promotegovernment‐facilitatedcommitmentsonsustainablecommodities,public‐privatepartnerships(caninfluenceindirectlandusechangeandforeigndirectinvestment).

• Internationalinformationsharing:cross‐bordertrade,domesticandtrans‐boundarydrivers,bestpracticesandlessonslearned,periodicglobalassessments.

• RecognizelinkagesbetweenREDD+andemergingagriculturalmitigationandadaptation—orchestratedandcomplementaryfundingstreamstocountries(linkandintegrateREDD+activitiesandNAMAs,particularlyagriculture).

Conclusionsandrecommendations:Internationallevels


Thankyou!


Gabrielle KissingerPrincipal

Lexeme ConsultingVancouver, Canada

[email protected]

Dr. Martin HeroldChair of Remote SensingCenter of Geo-Information

Department ofEnvironmental ScienceWageningen [email protected]

Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation

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