Nutritional Considerations for 12/13

Dr Phil Baynes

DPDG 12.12.12

Who is Phil Baynes?

Born in Chelmsford, Schooled in Suffolk

Reading University, Applied Zoology with Subsid in Agric 1989-1992

Cambac JMA Research 1992-1997 (Research Scientist)

Royal Veterinary College 1993-1997 external PhD – “The development of a protocol to assess the welfare of gestating sows under various indoor housing systems”

Trouw Nutrition 1997-1999 (Nutritionist/Product Manager)

NuTec 1999-2001 (Nutritionist/Product Manager)

Provimi RTC Brussels, 2001-2002 (Global Pig Research Manager)

SCA 2002 – 2010. (Senior Nutritionist/Commercial Technical Manager)

Baynes Nutrition Ltd - 2010 – present (Managing Director).

Held as consultant nutritionist to Exec Committee of PVS, also adviser to BPEX & NPA

Writes columns for the Weekly Tribune and Pig World (Monthly).

Running Order....

Current global situation.

Options for feed manufacture.

Co-products.

Impacts on cost.

Diet specifications.

Final comparisons.

World Population

Now

10Years time

30Years time

Over 1.5 Billion more in 30 years

World Dynamics

Current World Population stands at 7 Billion people

By 2050 will be anywhere between 7.5-10.5 Billion

As countries become more affluent, they want more meat.

Put simply – more mouths to feed yearly.

World Grain Production

Maize

Wheat

Barley

Sorghum

Rice

Oats

WASDE 12/13 Season

Projected Jun-12

Wheat Maize Soya

Production (Million Tonnes) 672.06 949.93 271.03

Difference from previous 11/12 -5.50 4.15 -0.39

Demand (Million Tonnes) 681.87 923.39 264.95

Difference from previous 11/12 -4.60 2.38 -0.19

End Stocks (Million Tonnes) 185.76 155.74 58.54

Difference from previous 11/12 -2.37 3.40 0.47

Stocks:Use (%) 27.24 16.87 22.09

Difference from previous 11/12 -0.16 0.33 0.19

Projected Oct-12

Wheat Maize Soya

Production (Million Tonnes) 653.05 839.02 264.28

Difference from previous 11/12 -5.68 -2.04 6.15

Demand (Million Tonnes) 678.22 853.29 258.76

Difference from previous 11/12 -2.44 -3.41 2.03

End Stocks (Million Tonnes) 173.00 117.27 57.56

Difference from previous 11/12 -3.71 -6.68 4.46

Stocks:Use (%) 25.51 13.74 22.24

Difference from previous 11/12 -0.45 -0.73 1.56

Population Commodity Requirement

(based on production)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Wheat Maize Soya

93

120

38

Production/person

2012

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Wheat Maize Soya

653

839

264

798

1025

323

Projected Requirement

2012

2042

An increase of 22% Acreage? GM crops?

Population Commodity

Requirements (based on demand)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Wheat maize soya

97

122

37

Requirement/person

2012

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Wheat maize soya

678

853

259

829

1044

316

Projected Demand

2012

2042

2042 wheat maize soya

production 798 1025 323

demand 829 1044 316

difference -31 -19 7

World Key Harvest Schedule

By Kind Permission of Nogger http://nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/

Wheat

Soya

Considerations for July

Considerations for February

‘El Nino’ vs ‘La Nina’

“El Nino”

“La Nina”

Heavy Rains in South America

Dry in the Midwest of America

Drought in Australia/Oceania

Drought in South America,

Wet in the Midwest of US

Heavy Rains in Australia/Oceania

Floods in Pakistan

Weather impacts....

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

3.1

.12

12.1

.12

23.1

.12

1.2

.12

10.2

.12

21.2

.12

1.3

.12

12.3

.12

21.3

.12

30.3

.12

12.4

.12

23.4

.12

2.5

.12

14.5

.12

23.5

.12

1.6

.12

14.6

.12

25.6

.12

4.7

.12

13.7

.12

24.7

.12

2.8

.12

13.8

.12

22.8

.12

3.9

.12

12.9

.12

21.9

.12

2.1

0.1

2

11.1

0.1

2

22.1

0.1

2

Hipro Soya A/O

Rapeseed Extract

PK Expeller

Sunflower (32%)

Soya Hulls

DDGS

Global Volcanic Activity

0

5

10

15

20

25

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Global Volcanism Program – Smithsonian Institution

Things we cannot control…

• Global warming

• Volcanic Activity

• Incidence of La Nina/El Nino

• Developing economies- China, India etc.

• Political decision making

• Economic downturn

What does this mean for us?

Every country is reliant on home-produced or imported materials.

Shortages will mean potentially questionable materials being used in feed

2 - Options for Feeding Pigs

Compound Feed

Home-Mix Meal

Co-Product Feeding

Options for home-mixing...

Mobile Mill & Mix.

What’s the cost of haulage?

What is required on farm?

Buschoff or Tropper

PTO driven machines

Either Caravaggi, Gehl or Artsway

Static Mill

Computer controlled – automatic.

Liquid Feeding

Balancer meal From compounder or via Mobile/PTO or Static Mills

Co-product From dairy, brewery, bioethanol, confectionary etc...

Types of Co-Product

Dairy

Whey

Whey Permeate

Yoghurt

Buttermilk

Wheat processing/bioethanol

Abracarb

Sedalcol

Enpro

Trafford Syrup

Proflow

Types of Co-Product cont.

Brewery/Yeast Extraction

Brewers yeast

Yeastpro 11

Yeastpro 14

Other:

Confectionary Blend

PPP/Steam peelings

Glucose

Soya Milk (Alpro)

Moist co-products

Using a moist co-product (bread, Trafford Gold etc)

Suggested Range

DE ranges from 14.1MJ/kg to 11.1MJ

Lysine ranges from 1.15% to 0.76%

Who do we believe and what is the impact on diet cost?

Lysine is good?!!!

Conclusion

Co-product only changes rations from 35kg LW

Continental only changes Finisher 2 diet 65kg to Slaughter.

Total cost of feed Cost per pig reared Margin over feed

Current £228,041.17 £87.61 £37.34

+ Co-product £212,649.26 £81.68 £43.27

Continental £206,380.28 £79.27 £45.69

£35.00

£37.00

£39.00

£41.00

£43.00

£45.00

£47.00

Current + Co-product Continental

Margin over feed per reared pig

Flying Wedge Purchasing.

Soya Wheat

dec 382 225

nov 397.5 210

oct 398 199.05

sep 442 205

aug 432.5 189

jul 371 204.25

jun 337 171.5

may 344.5 177

apr 318 171.75

mar 284 164.75

Average 370.65 191.73 0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

dec nov oct sep aug jul jun may apr mar

Soya

Wheat

10% Flying wedge for December

Taken from 1st trading day of each month

Conclusion 2 - FCR

Fix that leaky hopper!

On a 100 sow herd, increasing the FCR on the final feed by 0.1

Total cost of feed Cost per pig reared Margin over feed

Current £228,041.17 £87.61 £37.34

>0.1 FCR on Fin 2 £231,305.38 £88.87 £36.09

Difference £3,264.21 £1.26 -£1.25