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Fibre to the Home: Taking your life to new horizons!
Chris Holden, President of the Board, FTTH Council Europe
Hartwig Tauber, Director General, FTTH Council Europe
Roland Montagne, Director Telecoms BU, IDATE
Peter Cochrane, Co-Founder, Cochrane Associates
Press Conference - Munich, 15 February 2012
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FTTH Council Europe
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FTTH Council Europe
Our Vision: A sustainable future enabled by Fibre to the Home
Our Mission
• To accelerate FTTH adoption through information and
promotion in order to enhance the quality of life, contribute
to a better environment and increased competitiveness
Organisation
• Founded in 2004, non-profit industry organisation
• More than 150 member companies
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FTTH Conference 2013
London,19-21 February 2013
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Europe in the slow lane?
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FTTH Global panorama end-2011 – Total subscribers
5.7 M
54.3 M 9.7 M
… and FTTH continues to grow
4.5 M
0.52 M
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FTTH Global Ranking – end 2011
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FTTH European Ranking – end 2011
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FTTH European Ranking end-2011 - Comments
• The Ranking includes countries of more than 200,000 households
where at least 1% of households are FTTH/B subscribers
• 20 countries in the European Ranking
• No new entrant
• Progression for three countries: Norway (now number 2), Latvia and
Turkey (now ahead of Italy)
• Major Western Economies such as Italy and France still at the bottom
of the Ranking
• Others like UK, Germany or Spain are absent
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Countries included in the panorama
EU 27 +
Andorra,
Croatia,
Iceland, Israel,
Norway, Serbia,
Switzerland,
Turkey
EU35
EU 35 +
Belarus,
Kazakhstan,
Russia, Ukraine
EU39
Austria
Belgium
Bulgaria
Cyprus
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Italy
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Malta
Netherlands
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
United Kingdom
EU 27
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FTTH in Europe – EU35 at end 2011
(1) Our figures have already been processed to avoid overestimating homes passed when one home
is passed by several operators in some countries.
5.15 million FTTH/B subscribers
27.9 million Homes Passed(1)
Average take up rate : 18.4%
(20.3% in Dec 2010)
Growth rates 2011 (excluding Russia)
+28% FTTH/B Subscribers
+41% FTTH/B Homes Passed
Players are still focussed on
expanding their FTTH/B coverage
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council Europe
Note: FTTH/FTTB definitions by the
Global FTTH Councils
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FTTH in Europe – EU27 and CIS at end 2011
4.5 million FTTH/B subscribers
25.8 million Homes Passed(1)
Average take up rate : 17.5%
5.1million FTTH/B subscribers
16.8 million Homes Passed(1)
Average take up rate : 30.3%
CIS = Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Belarus
EU27 CIS
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council Europe
Note: FTTH/FTTB definitions by the
Global FTTH Councils
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Countries with more than 200,000 subscribers
Source: FTTH European Ranking, IDATE for FTTH Council Europe, February 2011
Note: FTTH/FTTB definitions by the Global FTTH Councils
0
500 000
1 000 000
1 500 000
2 000 000
2 500 000
3 000 000
3 500 000
4 000 000
4 500 000
5 000 000
Dec 2009 Dec 2010 Dec 2011
Market with still a huge potential
Part of FTTH/B getting higher
Highest growth in 2H11
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council Europe
Note: FTTH/FTTB definitions by the
Global FTTH Councils
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New FTTH/B Subscribers in EU39 – end 2011
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council Europe
Note: FTTH/FTTB definitions by the
Global FTTH Councils
Top 5 countries
► Ukraine
► France
► Turkey
► Spain
► Netherlands
(Russia: + 702,000)
+100,000
+73,000
+70,400
+68,700
+55,000
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FTTH homes passed in EU39 – end-2011
Source: FTTH European Ranking, IDATE for FTTH Council Europe, February 2011
Note: FTTH/FTTB definitions by the Global FTTH Councils
Countries > 1 million FTTH/B Homes Passed
0
2 000 000
4 000 000
6 000 000
8 000 000
10 000 000
12 000 000
14 000 000
Dec 2009 Dec 2010 Dec 2011
Large network overlapping between main players
Highest growth (>x2 during 2H11)
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council Europe
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•6 countries > x2
Among which Hungary, Poland, Spain, UK
•Smallest growth in Slovenia, Italy, France, Sweden
Between 3% and 8% HP growth in 2H2011
Further rollouts planned in Italy on a national scale to be confirmed
Already good coverage in most dense areas, notably in France (FTTB)
•Noticeable growth in Netherlands, Portugal, Turkey
Due to renewed/intensive strategy from incumbents or alternative
operators
FTTH/B Homes Passed trends – end 2011
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FTTH/B Homes Passed in total Households – end 2011
Number of HP not representative of effective coverage (HP
in total households)
Now 4 countries >= 50%
Top 8 countries in
terms of HP in total
households
Andorra: 100%
Lithuania: 97%
Bulgaria: 49%
Portugal: 53%
Latvia: 50%
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council Europe
Slovenia: 39%
Iceland: 39%
Slovakia: 38%
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FTTH/B leading countries – end 2011
►Last period of leadership for pioneer Sweden?
Sweden still heading European FTTH/B market in terms of number of
subscribers, but the gap is getting very small with France and Ukraine
►High growth of Spanish market
Next step: entering the Global Ranking ?
►CIS countries: potential of the market confirmed and still very huge
for Russia and Ukraine
►Apart from CIS, majority of subscribers concentrated in 8 countries
Sweden, France, Lithuania, Italy, Norway, Netherlands, Bulgaria, Portugal
> 62% of total FTTH/B subscribers in EU35
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FTTH/B leading countries – end 2011
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council Europe (1) Number of subscribers in total Homes Passed
From the highest… In Scandinavian countries : 60% in Norway, 39% in Sweden
In Czech Rep (42%), Hungary (39%), Russia (37%), Turkey (26%)
In the Baltics : 29% in Lithuania
…to the lowest In France (<11%), Switzerland (<4%), UK (<2%)
But number of subscribers less relevant
than Take Rates (1)
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FTTH Panorama
Methodology & Conclusions
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Background of the Study
► Mission on behalf of the FTTH Council Europe, 9th edition
Characterisation of each project includes: Organisation initiating the project Key parameters & Figures Technical parameters Financing & Business model
► Methodology used
Desk research Direct contacts with FTTH players (questionnaires, phone
interviews) & IDATE’s partners in several European countries
Information exchange with FTTH Council Europe members
► Objective: to provide a complete summary of the status of FTTH/B in Europe
39 countries analysed (detail in annex)
Panorama provided twice a year
Distinction between architecture : FTTH/B vs FTTN (FTTN/C+VDSL, FTTLA, FTTx+LAN)
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FTTH Definitions
INCLUDED
• FTTHome – Complete Fibre Path to Home – in-building cables: house copper or fibre or wireless
• FTTBuilding – Fibre to Apartment/Office Building – in-building cables: building copper or fibre regarded as a transitional stage to
FTTH
• Both defined in global FTTH Councils, FTTH Definitions Document www.ftthcouncil.eu/documents/studies/FTTH-Definitions-Revision_January_2009.pdf
NOT INCLUDED
• FTTCurb / FTTNode – Fibre to Street Cabinet – distribution and drop cables using telco copper (DSL) or new copper
– categorised as DSL technologies.
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FTTH Projects – end 2011
►Around 260 FTTH/B projects
33 projects > 200k HP
TDC Elion Free
NetCologne Lattelecom
Altibox T-Com
T2 Swisscom
……
Orange SFR
Telecom Italia TeliaSonera Finland
TEO KPN/Reggefiber
Telenor ……
17 projects > 500k HP
Blizoo Portugal Telecom
Telefonica SuperOnline
Beeline ER Telecom
……
10 projects > 1M HP
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council Europe
Note: FTTH/FTTB definitions by the
Global FTTH Councils
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FTTH Players – end 2011
►3 main categories involved in EU35 FTTH/B deployments
Municipalities & Utilities
• More numerous
• Local deployments only
13% of total FTTH/B Homes Passed at Dec
2011
Alternative operators / MSOs
• Most dynamic
• National or local deployments
55% of total FTTH/B Homes Passed at Dec
2011
European incumbents
• Challenged on BB
• National deployments
33% of total FTTH/B Homes Passed at Dec
2011
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FTTH Technologies – end 2011
• In December 2011, the main architecture deployed is still FTTB
• Regarding technology, players have mainly chosen Ethernet
• MDUs are still the principal target for Fibre deployments in Europe
FTTH 41% 39% 37%
FTTB 59% 61% 63%
PON 30% 29% 27%
Ethernet 70% 71% 73%
MDU 80% 79% 77%
SDU 20% 21% 23%
Main technology deployed
(homes passed segmentation)June 2011
Dec 2010
Dwellings deployed
(homes passed segmentation)
Dec 2011 Dec 2010
Dec 2011 June 2011 Dec 2010
Main architecture deployed
(homes passed segmentation)June 2011Dec 2011
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council Europe
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Main conclusions for FTTH
►FTTH: a new priority for operators first involved in VDSL rollouts
(e.g. KPN, Swisscom,… DT tomorrow?)
►Multiplicity of players is not a insurance for market dynamism
(e.g. Romania): consolidation to come?
►No new entrant in the ranking: Spain in the starting block
►Operators should be increasingly concerned with marketing their solutions
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►Penetration rate still very low compared to APAC and USA: what solution can be found by operators to leverage the take up rate?
►Communication about FTTH has to be adapted to touch a large public: promoting the benefits of fibre
►Objectives to be reached on national and European levels: how to work together to expand the coverage?
(1) subscribers/Homes Passed
Main challenges for FTTH
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What next?
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European Region FTTH Forecast
Source: Heavy Reading for FTTH Council Europe, February 2012
Note: Households connected directly to fibre (FTTH) and apartments connected via basement fibre termination (FTTB)
19623430
5369
7480
10379
13575
17045
21175
26030
32088
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Co
nn
ecte
d H
ou
seh
old
s, 000s
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Europe in Context: the Race to Fibre Maturity
Source: Heavy Reading for FTTH Council Europe, February 2012
Country 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
After
2022
Japan
Korea
China
Taiwan
Australia
USA
Canada
Russia
France
Germany
Italy
UK
Spain
Sweden
Netherlands
Portugal
Switzerland
Denmark
EUROPEAN UNION
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
After
2022
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Summary
European Commission Digital Agenda: 50% of European households connected to 100 Mbps by 2020
Just over 32 million households connected to FTTH/B at end-2016 in countries covered by this forecast, representing 10.5% of all homes
In the EU only, the total will be just over 17m, or 8.7% of all homes
Nine of the 21 nations individually analyzed should achieve “FTTH maturity” (20% penetration) by 2016: Lithuania, Norway, Sweden, Slovak Republic, Latvia, Estonia, Denmark, Portugal and Bulgaria
Seven of the 21 nations will still be under 10% penetration at the end of 2016: UK, Italy, Germany, Switzerland, Spain and Austria
All players in certain Western European countries - incumbents, competitors, utilities - are far behind targets and plans
The gap between different countries in Europe, and between EU and other regions, is still widening
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Why FTTH?
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FTTH and rural areas
• FTTH in rural areas is a big chance for regional development
• It might be too expensive to get a highway or a high speed train to each village
• …but it is affordable in Germany for instance to connect nearly every household with fibre
• A political decision: do we want prosperous regions or will the rural areas die?
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FTTH – The Foundation for a successful future
FTTH deployment
& availability
Increase of Productivity
Economic growth
Quality of Life
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Videoconferencing with Skype
iPad and Smartphones
HD-TVs with 42“ and more in 3D
Digital photography
Online-Shops
What we did not know in 2000…
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But we think we know what we will need in
2020 – or not?...
Elderly people start using Skype to communicate with family and friends
GamesCom has nearly as many visitors as CeBIT
Teleworking becomes part of our working life
SmartTVs get into our living rooms
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What about wireless and LTE?
• LTE is complementary to FTTH
• Two very different usage scenarios: LTE for mobile broadband, FTTH for fixed line access at home
• LTE will even accelerate fibre deployments as base stations need to be connected to backhaul
• LTE is NOT capable of replacing FTTH in rural areas
• Big risk: rural areas get “quick and dirty” broadband solutions with LTE and will therefore get no chance to get future proof broadband in the near or medium future
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Conclusion
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Conclusion
• FTTH is the infrastructure of the 21st century
• FTTH stands for – Quality of life
– Economic leadership
– Socio-economic benefits
• …and the basis for a competitive Europe
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Peter Cochrane
COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s
ca-global.org
cochrane.org.uk
Why FTTH
?
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There is no other
choice !
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No other technology
can provide the
bandwidth and utility
demanded today and
in the future...
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The most cost
effective solution:
- Cost of ownership
- Future proof
- Best reliability
- Best resilience
- Ultimate utility
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The technologies of
the past can’t cut the
mustard...they really
can’t...
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The sustainable
future is about
everything and
everyone being
wireless and on line !
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It is about connectivity,
access,data,
information, sharing,
and new modes for
industry, commerce,
eduction, training,
heath, living...
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People, vehicles,
things cluster to
sporadically demand
bandwidth, a lot of
bandwidth ...
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More wireless means
more optical fibre...
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Cloud computing will
fail if we do not have
ample bandwidth and
connectivity...
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Connected
OR
Disconnected
Optical Fibre
Copper
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5
1
Thank You COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s
ca-global.org
cochrane.org.uk
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Thank you for your attention!
www.ftthcouncil.eu